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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:51 pm 
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I thought it might be a nice idea to have a thread for only positive news about the coronavirus to balance out the other one. It's a huge issue facing all of us, so I think two threads is not unreasonable, especially since this one has a distinctly different bent than the existing one. Promoting fear and panic when everyone is already on edge is very unhelpful.

I'll start:

Dr Amesh Adalja, MD puts the worst case fatality rate of coronavirus at about 0.6%. Six times more deadly than the common flu is still obviously a concern, but it's "good news" compared to the numbers floating around in both social and legacy media.

https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-earl ... -pandemic/

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Amesh Adalja, MD, is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity. Amesh has served on US government panels tasked with developing guidelines for the treatment of plague, botulism, and anthrax. He is an Associate Editor of the journal Health Security, co-editor of the volume Global Catastrophic Biological Risks, and a contributing author for the Handbook of Bioterrorism and Disaster Medicine. Amesh actively practices infectious disease, critical care, and emergency medicine in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:56 pm 
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1. positive impact on the environment
2. increases chance of orange shitgibbon not getting re-elected ; only need to find a male white guy approx 75 years of age to run against him thats still alive


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:00 pm 
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Dr Amesh Adalja, MD puts the worst case fatality rate of coronavirus at about 0.6%


What is the scale of that? Italy is around 3 to 4 times that.

This isn't going to go well.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:01 pm 
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:02 pm 
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ticketlessinseattle wrote:
1. positive impact on the environment
2. increases chance of orange shitgibbon not getting re-elected ; only need to find a male white guy approx 75 years of age to run against him thats still alive


That second one could very much back-fire if it is actually true that there's a lot of media hysteria and panic-prone misinformation floating around. If it turns out he is even half-correct, that would not be a good thing (assuming you don't like Trump as President, which I do not).


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:02 pm 
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DrSnow wrote:
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Dr Amesh Adalja, MD puts the worst case fatality rate of coronavirus at about 0.6%


What is the scale of that? Italy is around 3 to 4 times that.

This isn't going to go well.

I have no idea. Listen to the infectious disease expert in the podcast.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:04 pm 
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Maybe I'm giving you too much credit but surely you realise that this thread is going to be used exclusively to hurl abuse at you. Everyone else will continue to use the perfectly serviceable coronavirus thread for coronavirus discussions.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:04 pm 
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Swine flu in 09/10 killed 500k worldwide and 12k in the states. We didn't lose our lives then though that is when we put up hand sanitizers in all public spaces in Ireland. We filled them for about 2 years, left the empty dispensers there for another 4 and then took them down


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:04 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
DrSnow wrote:
Quote:
Dr Amesh Adalja, MD puts the worst case fatality rate of coronavirus at about 0.6%


What is the scale of that? Italy is around 3 to 4 times that.

This isn't going to go well.

I have no idea. Listen to the infectious disease expert in the podcast.


But I'm looking at the Italian mortality rate and it isn't 0.6%


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:13 pm 
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EverReady wrote:
Swine flu in 09/10 killed 500k worldwide and 12k in the states. We didn't lose our lives then though that is when we put up hand sanitizers in all public spaces in Ireland. We filled them for about 2 years, left the empty dispensers there for another 4 and then took them down

:thumbup: I have to assume that both new cases and fatality rate will drop as people have become -rightfull and thankfully- so much more aware of the risks involved. Most of the infections and deaths so far have occurred in China where people didn't even know what was happening.


alliswell wrote:
Maybe I'm giving you too much credit but surely you realise that this thread is going to be used exclusively to hurl abuse at you. Everyone else will continue to use the perfectly serviceable coronavirus thread for coronavirus discussions.

I'm used to it. :)

DrSnow wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
DrSnow wrote:
Quote:
Dr Amesh Adalja, MD puts the worst case fatality rate of coronavirus at about 0.6%


What is the scale of that? Italy is around 3 to 4 times that.

This isn't going to go well.

I have no idea. Listen to the infectious disease expert in the podcast.


But I'm looking at the Italian mortality rate and it isn't 0.6%

I can only repeat, listen to the expert. I don't know. Maybe there's far more people infected in Italy than what is reported for example? I don't know. I posted the link so people could listen to a legit expert and come to their own conclusions. I'm not making the claim, I wouldn't have a clue. I'm just listening to him.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:26 pm 
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Reduction of the baby boomers voting pool will be positive


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:31 pm 
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Keeping in mind that these statistics are in all probability waaaay overblown.

Experts say that the number of unreported cases, many of who have already recovered and some of who never even showed symptoms, is in the range of 5x the number of reported cases at minimum, and these stats come from China where they didn't even know what was happening and were totally unprepared when it hit.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:46 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
Keeping in mind that these statistics are in all probability waaaay overblown.

Experts say that the number of unreported cases, many of who have already recovered and some of who never even showed symptoms, is in the range of 5x the number of reported cases at minimum, and these stats come from China where they didn't even know what was happening and were totally unprepared when it hit.

Image

I was going to post that as the good news!!

'(But I was going to ignore the 1 in 5 serious to critical cases)


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:50 pm 
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Well, like I said, it's most probably nowhere near that number for the reasons above. You can probably divide those numbers by at-least 5, and that's being very conservative.

But if you're relatively young and relatively healthy and not incredibly unlucky, you're basically looking at getting the flu. Of course this is not 100% of cases even for young healthy people, but it is hopeful news and gives a bit of perspective.

Still very serious of course. The point of the thread is not to downplay the seriousness. Just a bit of balancing.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:53 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
Well, like I said, it's most probably nowhere near that number for the reasons above.

But if you're relatively young and relatively healthy and not incredibly unlucky, you're basically looking at getting the flu. Of course this is not 100% of cases even for young healthy people, but it is hopeful news and gives a bit of perspective.

Not even the flu for the younger kids.
But you'll be fine, pal. Keep clean, try not to get it and pass it on. Follow the quarantine rules.
It won't be fun, but it'll pass.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:57 pm 
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message #2527204 wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
Well, like I said, it's most probably nowhere near that number for the reasons above.

But if you're relatively young and relatively healthy and not incredibly unlucky, you're basically looking at getting the flu. Of course this is not 100% of cases even for young healthy people, but it is hopeful news and gives a bit of perspective.

Not even the flu for the younger kids.
But you'll be fine, pal. Keep clean, try not to get it and pass it on. Follow the quarantine rules.
It won't be fun, but it'll pass.

:thumbup: Let's hope so. I've already been quarantined once after my GF returned from Italy with a bad cold, but she just got her negative test back.

I'm not worried at all about me. If I catch coronavirus I'll eradicate the motherf-cker. Coronavirus better be scared of me, not the opposite way around. This is supposed to be the good news thread, but I'm much more worried about my mum and sister. My mum is a 74-year-old intensive care nurse with an auto-immune disorder and my sister is also an IC nurse and is pregnant. Absurdly, they just put my mum on a coronavirus first-responder's team due to her qualifications and experience. She doesn't seem very worried though, although I am a bit I must admit.

Good news is she lives deep in the bush by herself with nobody else around and only works 1 night a week for a bit of extra money.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:09 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
You can probably divide those numbers by at-least 5, and that's being very conservative..

From which orifice do you pull you lr opinions?
Have you anything beyond a gut feeling as to why you think that?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:10 pm 
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If my contacts are right then there will be very little in regards of positive news.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:12 pm 
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Derwyn wrote:
If my contacts are right then there will be very little in regards of positive news.

No one nibble on that in the main thread?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:13 pm 
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Nolanator wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
You can probably divide those numbers by at-least 5, and that's being very conservative..

From which orifice do you pull you lr opinions?
Have you anything beyond a gut feeling as to why you think that?


Cmon dude. You're a good bloke, don't be a dick. If you bothered to read the OP:

Quote:
Amesh Adalja, MD, is an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity. Amesh has served on US government panels tasked with developing guidelines for the treatment of plague, botulism, and anthrax. He is an Associate Editor of the journal Health Security, co-editor of the volume Global Catastrophic Biological Risks, and a contributing author for the Handbook of Bioterrorism and Disaster Medicine. Amesh actively practices infectious disease, critical care, and emergency medicine in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:14 pm 
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Nolanator wrote:
Derwyn wrote:
If my contacts are right then there will be very little in regards of positive news.

No one nibble on that in the main thread?

No skin off my nose If you think I'm telling porkies. Have been told in confidence so obviously not going to spread and cause a panic.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:15 pm 
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So the factor of five?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:21 pm 
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Nolanator wrote:
So the factor of five?

That's the expert opinion --or what I've heard of it-- and is also a conservative estimate.

I believe that the number comes from the fact that the data that is circulating comes from reported cases, and they estimate the number of reported cases vs those who never get a test due to the mildness (or non-existnece) of symptoms is somewhere in the order of 1-in-5. Add on that a huge majority of the data comes from countries such as China that were hit badly before they even knew what was happening. If you compare the fatality rate in a place like Korea who has so far the most comprehensive testing on the planet, to China, where they were hit by a thunder bolt out of the blue, the number is 3.4 divided by 0.6, which is slightly higher than a factor of 5. And that's not counting the fact that there are doubtless also many people in Korea who never got tested and already recovered (thus "worse case" - it assumes 100% of Koreans are tested).

But to be 100% clear, it's entirely possible that they're wrong, I don't know. I'm not making any claims about it at all personally, how the f-ck would I know? I'm just repeating what they said. The podcast in the OP explains the reasoning fairly well early on.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:27 pm 
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Derwyn wrote:
Nolanator wrote:
Derwyn wrote:
If my contacts are right then there will be very little in regards of positive news.

No one nibble on that in the main thread?

No skin off my nose If you think I'm telling porkies. Have been told in confidence so obviously not going to spread and cause a panic.


I've heard lots of things off people in the know in my lifetime that have turned out to be bollox. People also like sharing bad news e.g. I was at a meeting and all our arses could fall off next week trumps I was at a meeting and they said well done on the font I chose for the golf society poster


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:32 pm 
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EverReady wrote:
Derwyn wrote:
Nolanator wrote:
Derwyn wrote:
If my contacts are right then there will be very little in regards of positive news.

No one nibble on that in the main thread?

No skin off my nose If you think I'm telling porkies. Have been told in confidence so obviously not going to spread and cause a panic.


I've heard lots of things off people in the know in my lifetime that have turned out to be bollox. People also like sharing bad news e.g. I was at a meeting and all our arses could fall off next week trumps I was at a meeting and they said well done on the font I chose for the golf society poster

To be honest, I trust expert consensus. I'm more skeptical about some anonymous Internet poster giving vague warnings of impending doom based upon what their anonymous mate said.

Could well turn out to be true, I have no idea. But it's not a source that's tying my knickers in knots just yet. The guy in the podcast in the OP seems slightly more reliable. Let's all hope so anyway.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:39 pm 
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I’m hearing rumours from my contacts that the virus was actually developed by people working for Greta Thunberg. When you think about it it makes sense, killing old people, improving the environment and getting kids out of school. Pretty shadowy figures to plan all this although.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:40 pm 
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Man In Black wrote:
I’m hearing rumours from my contacts that the virus was actually developed by people working for Greta Thunberg. When you think about it it makes sense, killing old people, improving the environment and getting kids out of school. Pretty shadowy figures to plan all this although.

Makes total sense. I'm sure they're onto something. :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:41 pm 
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Man In Black wrote:
I’m hearing rumours from my contacts that the virus was actually developed by people working for Greta Thunberg. When you think about it it makes sense, killing old people, improving the environment and getting kids out of school. Pretty shadowy figures to plan all this although.

And creating economic instability. Yep, sounds like a green.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:48 pm 
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The fatality rate will not be < 1% once the healthcare system is overwhelmed as it is in northern Italy.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:03 pm 
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brero wrote:
The fatality rate will not be < 1% once the healthcare system is overwhelmed as it is in northern Italy.


Wrong thread.

What about this rheumatoid arthritis drug - appears to be a bit of breakthrough in terms of helping people with severe breathing difficulties?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:18 pm 
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brero wrote:
The fatality rate will not be < 1% once the healthcare system is overwhelmed as it is in northern Italy.

While I appreciate your expert opinion on virology and the demography of pandemics in foreign countries, this is a positive news thread. ;)


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:37 pm 
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ChipSpike wrote:
brero wrote:
The fatality rate will not be < 1% once the healthcare system is overwhelmed as it is in northern Italy.


Wrong thread.

What about this rheumatoid arthritis drug - appears to be a bit of breakthrough in terms of helping people with severe breathing difficulties?


Which RA drug?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:38 pm 
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ChipSpike wrote:
brero wrote:
The fatality rate will not be < 1% once the healthcare system is overwhelmed as it is in northern Italy.


Wrong thread.

What about this rheumatoid arthritis drug - appears to be a bit of breakthrough in terms of helping people with severe breathing difficulties?


Quote:
The longtime developmental partners are aiming to see if Kevzara, a treatment for rheumatoid arthritis, could be effective against symptoms related to COVID-19. Regeneron Chief Scientific Officer George Yancopoulos told The Wall Street Journal if Kevzara could ease damage to the lungs and respiratory system caused by the body’s overreaction to COVID-19. Kevzara would not treat the underlying virus, just the immune system responses. Yancopoulos said the companies hope to have a trial “up and running” over the next several weeks or months in order to have data.

Researchers are turning to multiple drugs on the market as there are yet no approved treatments or vaccines for the novel coronavirus. In China, researchers have been using Roche’s Actemra, a drug similar to Kevzara, to help a small group of patients with severe or critical Covid-19 disease recover, the Journal reported. Pointing to the reports of that treatment option, Yancopoulos said several patients who received the Roche treatment “got out of death’s bed and walked out of the hospital.” Still, in his interview with the Journal, Yancopoulos was cautious because the work done in China was with a small group of patients and did not have controls, nor did it have defined parameters for success.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:43 pm 
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Mog The Almighty wrote:
brero wrote:
The fatality rate will not be < 1% once the healthcare system is overwhelmed as it is in northern Italy.

While I appreciate your expert opinion on virology and the demography of pandemics in foreign countries, this is a positive news thread. ;)


my point is that a 0.6% cfr is not really positive news. maybe that's explained in the podcast!


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:04 pm 
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brero wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
brero wrote:
The fatality rate will not be < 1% once the healthcare system is overwhelmed as it is in northern Italy.

While I appreciate your expert opinion on virology and the demography of pandemics in foreign countries, this is a positive news thread. ;)


my point is that a 0.6% cfr is not really positive news. maybe that's explained in the podcast!

You're right, it's quite horrific. Nobody is denying it's a very serious problem. But worst-case 0.6% is definitely better than the numbers that have been circulating on social media, and that much is good news.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:08 pm 
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JPNZ wrote:
ChipSpike wrote:
brero wrote:
The fatality rate will not be < 1% once the healthcare system is overwhelmed as it is in northern Italy.


Wrong thread.

What about this rheumatoid arthritis drug - appears to be a bit of breakthrough in terms of helping people with severe breathing difficulties?


Quote:
The longtime developmental partners are aiming to see if Kevzara, a treatment for rheumatoid arthritis, could be effective against symptoms related to COVID-19. Regeneron Chief Scientific Officer George Yancopoulos told The Wall Street Journal if Kevzara could ease damage to the lungs and respiratory system caused by the body’s overreaction to COVID-19. Kevzara would not treat the underlying virus, just the immune system responses. Yancopoulos said the companies hope to have a trial “up and running” over the next several weeks or months in order to have data.

Researchers are turning to multiple drugs on the market as there are yet no approved treatments or vaccines for the novel coronavirus. In China, researchers have been using Roche’s Actemra, a drug similar to Kevzara, to help a small group of patients with severe or critical Covid-19 disease recover, the Journal reported. Pointing to the reports of that treatment option, Yancopoulos said several patients who received the Roche treatment “got out of death’s bed and walked out of the hospital.” Still, in his interview with the Journal, Yancopoulos was cautious because the work done in China was with a small group of patients and did not have controls, nor did it have defined parameters for success.


Cheers. Kevzara is a relatively new drug that came on the market in the US in May of 2017. It's an injectible that ends up running a little under $2300 a month here for payers. Presumably for this use case it would only be that administered the one time. If it ends up working, the federal government should strongly consider heavily subsidizing it even in our current system. Actemra looks like it costs around $1500 or $3000 depending on dosage. Not sure what dosage level they're looking at, but it's good to have another option too.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:48 pm 
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Thought the positive thread could do with a laugh

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:49 pm 
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I don't think that's very positive.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:07 pm 
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Is it positive that experts aren't sending bizarre mixed messages like Mog anymore? Communication is fairly clear now. We are in a pandemic.

Quote:
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the number of cases outside of China had increased 13-fold in the past two weeks.

"We are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction," he said.

"Ready your hospitals, protect and train your health workers, and let's all look out for each other because we need each other."




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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:17 pm 
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Zakar wrote:
Reduction of the baby boomers voting pool will be positive


I take it you have no family in that demographic. Or, if you have, you have told them you wish them dead.


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