Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

[lorcanoworms]

Cheers lads I guess we’ll know in the next few days if she’s infected or not . Either way it’s a shitshow with dozens of vulnerable people put at risk due to incompetence and poor communication. I never mentioned either that she wasn’t wearing a mask because they’re so short on supplies they’re only given a very small allowance to cover patients who are showing symptoms

Duff, does contact tracing not supersede our medical privacy laws in a situation like this ?

I know it's not acceptable that she'd have to do it but has your wife considered making a homemade mask? Not 100% at all but better than nothing.

She’s kind of been getting by up to now by recycling masks and her brother helping her out with some masks he had from working with chemicals. The masks should all really be single use only so you need a good supply of them and there’s a lot of pressure on her boss to ration them. Making her own is an option alright with all else failing

Shit situation. Hope she stays safe and well.

That’s the thing, she accepted a long time ago that there she would probably catch this virus in her line of work, as did I. What’s infuriating is that for whatever reasons of incompetence or poor communication nobody told her she was in close contact with a victim and she’s potentially infected dozens more elderly people . If it wasn’t for the daughter of the poor lady making a courtesy call to her she would have been in work today holding a clinic for mothers with new born kids . Complete shitshow.She’s not the only healthcare worker that would have been calling to the lady either, she had a carer that called to other houses . Hopefully everyone’s dodged a bullet on this one

Really sorry to hear this.

[Liathroidigloine]

All the best Conspicuous. Hopefully it all works out ok.

[Rumham]

Eerie experience in my estate today. An elderly neighbour died this morning from a long term illness early this morning.
Message sent to the neighbourhood via WhatsApp mid morning.
Hearse arrived soon after
Neighbourhood all stood at their gates mid afternoon as the priest arrived to say a few prayers in the middle of the street.
Body loaded into the hearse and gone a few minutes later to the crematorium.
Everyone dispersed and that was it...
Guess this is going to happen quite a lot for the next while.
That's at least 3 Covid-19 deaths in the last week and another 2 or 3 deaths on top of that.

There was a non- covid19 death down the road from us during the week.
Same thing as you describe but one old lady lit a candle in her front window. Curtain caught fire. She's now in hospital for smoke inhalation.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/pre ... 18189.html

Holy fcuk.

[Rumham]

So it looks like we're going to try to suppress rather than contain the virus. I'm not sure why though. Are we going to close our borders after reopening?

New Zealand style. I spoke with someone there during the week and the rumours are they will close their borders for 6 to 12 months with selective re-opening for countries that they view as lower risk. That doesn't seem viable at all.

[CM11]

So it looks like we're going to try to suppress rather than contain the virus. I'm not sure why though. Are we going to close our borders after reopening?

New Zealand style. I spoke with someone there during the week and the rumours are they will close their borders for 6 to 12 months with selective re-opening for countries that they view as lower risk. That doesn't seem viable at all.

I just can't see how we do it without completely destroying the economy.

[Gavin Duffy]

Eerie experience in my estate today. An elderly neighbour died this morning from a long term illness early this morning.
Message sent to the neighbourhood via WhatsApp mid morning.
Hearse arrived soon after
Neighbourhood all stood at their gates mid afternoon as the priest arrived to say a few prayers in the middle of the street.
Body loaded into the hearse and gone a few minutes later to the crematorium.
Everyone dispersed and that was it...
Guess this is going to happen quite a lot for the next while.
That's at least 3 Covid-19 deaths in the last week and another 2 or 3 deaths on top of that.

There was a non- covid19 death down the road from us during the week.
Same thing as you describe but one old lady lit a candle in her front window. Curtain caught fire. She's now in hospital for smoke inhalation.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/pre ... 18189.html

Holy fcuk.

About as useful as hopes and prayers.

[Flametop]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

[normilet]

Still yet to see a Guard, checkpoint etc on the way to work. I would have thought this morning heading west through Dublin and onto the M50/N7 there'd be something but apparently not - maybe this evening.

As an aside, some people are driving like absolute f*cking lunatics since the lockdown started.

[CM11]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

As long as there's one unknown case, yep. Although not quite back to square one as the public are far more informed. We absolutely have to look at widespread mask wearing too. Once it's common, people will do it, but not if it's sporadic.

[CM11]

Still yet to see a Guard, checkpoint etc on the way to work. I would have thought this morning heading west through Dublin and onto the M50/N7 there'd be something but apparently not - maybe this evening.

As an aside, some people are driving like absolute f*cking lunatics since the lockdown started.

Garda presence limited or stopped in terms of trying to catch speeders?

[Gavin Duffy]

Still yet to see a Guard, checkpoint etc on the way to work. I would have thought this morning heading west through Dublin and onto the M50/N7 there'd be something but apparently not - maybe this evening.

As an aside, some people are driving like absolute f*cking lunatics since the lockdown started.

Garda presence limited or stopped in terms of trying to catch speeders?

I wouldn't have thought so - the last think they'd want is a load of RTA victims needing to go to ICU.

[CM11]

Still yet to see a Guard, checkpoint etc on the way to work. I would have thought this morning heading west through Dublin and onto the M50/N7 there'd be something but apparently not - maybe this evening.

As an aside, some people are driving like absolute f*cking lunatics since the lockdown started.

Garda presence limited or stopped in terms of trying to catch speeders?

I wouldn't have thought so - the last think they'd want is a load of RTA victims needing to go to ICU.

Could be a resource issue though. But agree.

Didn't Australia, stupidly, announce they were stopping speed checks a while back?

[normilet]

Still yet to see a Guard, checkpoint etc on the way to work. I would have thought this morning heading west through Dublin and onto the M50/N7 there'd be something but apparently not - maybe this evening.

As an aside, some people are driving like absolute f*cking lunatics since the lockdown started.

Garda presence limited or stopped in terms of trying to catch speeders?

It's a fair point.

If they have had to set up thousands of checkpoints, patrolling parks and beaches etc. to stop idiots making unnecessary journeys, where are the previous resources they had for catching the people driving like morons?

Or is it not worth the effort considering there are nowhere near as many people driving at all, so just let them at it.

[Flametop]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

As long as there's one unknown case, yep. Although not quite back to square one as the public are far more informed. We absolutely have to look at widespread mask wearing too. Once it's common, people will do it, but not if it's sporadic.

Indeed.
The whole covering the face thing could be the new normal.
I’m surprised there hasn’t been a few armed robberies using it already.

[rfurlong]

The only way to keep the virus suppressed to manageable levels after restrictions are limited, is the introduction of Chinese style, AI-driven, automated contact tracing ..... via mandatory tracking of the locations of peoples mobile phones.

currently across Europe there are opt-in apps that can track anonymised MAC addresses via private and public wifi, including the Taoglas 'crowd analytics' platform here in Ireland - https://www.siliconrepublic.com/enterpr ... -analytics

in the absence of a vaccine, the current opt-in nature of these apps will have to become compulsory, if we are going to restart the economy in any meaningful way.

GDPR is going to have to take a back seat to economic survival for a period, but as usual the civil liberties brigade and the extremes in Ireland (on both left and right) will scream blue murder over it.

To put it in perspective, the Alipay/Wechat apps in China were automatically downloaded to everyones phone ... whether they wanted it or not.

The data scientists could trace the fact that you had sat within 4 rows of a now confirmed virus carrier on the bullet train to Shenzhen 10 days ago ..... allowing the police/health authorities to take you out of your workplace, test you, and essentially out you under house arrest.

They would organise groceries and essentials to be dropped to your house for 14 days and monitor your symptoms continuously through provision of an internet connected temperature and video calls...... from which they would capture thousands of copies of your facial image for AI/machine learning training purposes.

If you left your house without permission (and tried to spoof your continuing presence in your house by leaving the phone there), they would catch you on the street CCTV network via facial recognition algorithms .... and you would end up in jail

This is what it took China to suppress the virus, but in Ireland (or any western democracy), it will be impossible to go that far ....... but we absolutely need to impinge on data privacy and other personal rights if we are going to get on top of this.

The government should explain it (the mandatory contact tracing app) thus ....... "dear citizens, I'm you're all going to get the vaccine immediately once its available right? You all accept its the right thing to do and its not going to be some Big Government conspiracy like Gemma O'Doherty would have you believe, right? Well then, getting a contact tracing app on your phone is no different ......... only criminals and loonies will be against it, because 95% of the population realise that its ultimately for the public good. We'll also write legislation to the effect that the measures get reversed as soon as the population here is vaccinated."

[Flametop]

Did we all not learn anything from Graham O Dwyer?

[CM11]

Yeah, nothing against a mandatory app. Lesser of two evils. A bit like a vaccine, if you get a high enough penetration then the twats will, sadly, be protected anyway.

[Duff Paddy]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

Ah no, not at all. At a guess we have 10-15% of the population who have already contracted this and are now immune. This cohort will provide a degree of herd immunity by slowing down transmission. It will also have killed off (sorry about the uncompassionate language) the most frail of our nursing home populations. The whole strategy was just to slow this down to allow the hospitals to cope. That has worked so far.

[JoeMangled]

Yes. Good demonstration of herd immunity on bbc's Horizon last night.

[Duff Paddy]

Yeah, nothing against a mandatory app. Lesser of two evils. A bit like a vaccine, if you get a high enough penetration then the twats will, sadly, be protected anyway.

You think a nation that fought tooth and nail against a national identity card will agree to a mandatory app? Just goes to show how far we have come - remember when we were all worried about brexit

[danthefan]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

Ah no, not at all. At a guess we have 10-15% of the population who have already contracted this and are now immune. This cohort will provide a degree of herd immunity by slowing down transmission. It will also have killed off (sorry about the uncompassionate language) the most frail of our nursing home populations. The whole strategy was just to slow this down to allow the hospitals to cope. That has worked so far.

We still aren't sure about this bit though are we?

[Duff Paddy]

So it looks like we're going to try to suppress rather than contain the virus. I'm not sure why though. Are we going to close our borders after reopening?

New Zealand style. I spoke with someone there during the week and the rumours are they will close their borders for 6 to 12 months with selective re-opening for countries that they view as lower risk. That doesn't seem viable at all.

I think they’ll do what they did in South Korea. When you arrive in Ireland the cops take your phone and download the government tracking app. If you don’t consent to this you get back on the plane and go home. This lets them do complete contact tracing for anyone who brings the disease into the country but also keeps the airports open.

[Duff Paddy]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

Ah no, not at all. At a guess we have 10-15% of the population who have already contracted this and are now immune. This cohort will provide a degree of herd immunity by slowing down transmission. It will also have killed off (sorry about the uncompassionate language) the most frail of our nursing home populations. The whole strategy was just to slow this down to allow the hospitals to cope. That has worked so far.

We still aren't sure about this bit though are we?

There isn’t any compelling evidence to the contrary

[Flametop]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

Ah no, not at all. At a guess we have 10-15% of the population who have already contracted this and are now immune. This cohort will provide a degree of herd immunity by slowing down transmission. It will also have killed off (sorry about the uncompassionate language) the most frail of our nursing home populations. The whole strategy was just to slow this down to allow the hospitals to cope. That has worked so far.

If we suppose those guessed numbers are right that leaves 85 to 90 % of people who have yet to be exposed to the virus?

I take the points you make and maybe we are not right back to you the start, but we are still far away from out of the woods.
We also don’t know for sure that it’s only going to kill only old people in large numbers, though hopefully younger and middle aged will be more resilient as we hope.

[alliswell]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

Ah no, not at all. At a guess we have 10-15% of the population who have already contracted this and are now immune. This cohort will provide a degree of herd immunity by slowing down transmission. It will also have killed off (sorry about the uncompassionate language) the most frail of our nursing home populations. The whole strategy was just to slow this down to allow the hospitals to cope. That has worked so far.

We still aren't sure about this bit though are we?

There isn’t any compelling evidence to the contrary

What's the evidence behind the 10-15%?

[Duff Paddy]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

Ah no, not at all. At a guess we have 10-15% of the population who have already contracted this and are now immune. This cohort will provide a degree of herd immunity by slowing down transmission. It will also have killed off (sorry about the uncompassionate language) the most frail of our nursing home populations. The whole strategy was just to slow this down to allow the hospitals to cope. That has worked so far.

If we suppose those guessed numbers are right that leaves 85 to 90 % of people who have yet to be exposed to the virus?

I take the points you make and maybe we are not right back to you the start, but we are still far away from out of the woods.
We also don’t know for sure that it’s only going to kill only old people in large numbers, though hopefully younger and middle aged will be more resilient as we hope.

Yes it looks like we have a few long months still to go. When that percentage gets up higher it will really put the brakes on transmission though. Depending on your definition of old, we do know that deaths in people under 55 are very uncommon. Obviously every one is a tragedy.

[Duff Paddy]

In my very amateur opinion, until there is a proven vaccine or until we all have contracted (and hopefully survived) the virus we will be back to square one if the government reduce the restrictions.

Ah no, not at all. At a guess we have 10-15% of the population who have already contracted this and are now immune. This cohort will provide a degree of herd immunity by slowing down transmission. It will also have killed off (sorry about the uncompassionate language) the most frail of our nursing home populations. The whole strategy was just to slow this down to allow the hospitals to cope. That has worked so far.

We still aren't sure about this bit though are we?

There isn’t any compelling evidence to the contrary

What's the evidence behind the 10-15%?

I literally said it was guess. Based on the study from Germany and anecdotal evidence of how many people around me have had it.

[ticketlessinseattle]

The one thing that gives me a glimmer of hope about the economy having a chance of being restarted is that there'll be a huge pent up amount of consumer demand for the worst hit industries. And while some won't have a lot to spend others will have more than usual with huge savings on monthly expenses.

Personally, I'll do my best to spend when we are eventually able to.

yup, I think we're all agreed on that ; if you've kept your job through this shit storm do the right thing and go fcukin nuts on buying Irish when its done ; catching up on Sunday business post and they carried a few stories about the government planning on lowering taxes to jump start the economy, another story mentioned that it would be for a period of 12 to 18 months (dont know how they'd change back ?) one though suggested funds would be thrown at business to rather than lowering taxes ; they didn't specify which taxes so maybe its not income tax but VAT, either way it didnt seem to suggest they're looking at implement new taxes to pay for the €20BN/€30BN its going to cost the economy ?

[Leinsterman]

I literally said it was guess. Based on the study from Germany and anecdotal evidence of how many people around me have had it.

Do you know many who reckon they've had it?
I only know one person and a second who might have had it.

[Leinster in London]

What's the evidence behind the 10-15%?

Irrespective of this type of evidence what is important is the ability to manage the hospital load. There is anecdotal evidence even here on this thread that Irish hospitals lack patients. This is an inneficient use of resources and indicates more leakage is required to speed up the process to it's conclusion. It will be a disaster for the country if it stays locked down for months after the the rest of Europe opens up and takes it's chances. You may well keep all the old people alive, but the emigration planes & boats will be full of the young again.


How will that work in a complete lockdown you may well ask.








2 airports in Belfast, one in Derry, and ferries from Larne

[Duff Paddy]

I literally said it was guess. Based on the study from Germany and anecdotal evidence of how many people around me have had it.

Do you know many who reckon they've had it?
I only know one person and a second who might have had it.

I know 3 even though only 1 who was tested the other two had all the symptoms including the loss of smell - then their other family members who were likely asymptomatic carriers.

[Duff Paddy]

There is anecdotal evidence even here on this thread that Irish hospitals lack patients

I think you’ve mixed this up - there is no shortage of covid patients requiring ICU. It’s people of all other ailments who are avoiding hospitals as they are worried about picking up the virus in the hospital (and they’re right), but if that goes on for a long time we’ll have a load of people dying of otherwise preventable causes

[Leinster in London]

There is anecdotal evidence even here on this thread that Irish hospitals lack patients

I think you’ve mixed this up - there is no shortage of covid patients requiring ICU. It’s people of all other ailments who are avoiding hospitals as they are worried about picking up the virus in the hospital (and they’re right), but if that goes on for a long time we’ll have a load of people dying of otherwise preventable causes

I thought the anecdote was Sligo Regional with 3 covid pts, and a comment re another location outside Dublin.

[alliswell]

What's the evidence behind the 10-15%?

Irrespective of this type of evidence what is important is the ability to manage the hospital load. There is anecdotal evidence even here on this thread that Irish hospitals lack patients. This is an inneficient use of resources and indicates more leakage is required to speed up the process to it's conclusion. It will be a disaster for the country if it stays locked down for months after the the rest of Europe opens up and takes it's chances. You may well keep all the old people alive, but the emigration planes & boats will be full of the young again.


How will that work in a complete lockdown you may well ask.








2 airports in Belfast, one in Derry, and ferries from Larne

That actually wasn't a loaded question, I was genuinely wondering where 10-15% was coming from.
I think deliberate leakage at this stage is a mental plan though. We have anecdotal evidence from hospitals of ICUs nearing capacity. Need to remain vigilant for until we're sure we're past the peak.

[ticketlessinseattle]

So it looks like we're going to try to suppress rather than contain the virus. I'm not sure why though. Are we going to close our borders after reopening?

New Zealand style. I spoke with someone there during the week and the rumours are they will close their borders for 6 to 12 months with selective re-opening for countries that they view as lower risk. That doesn't seem viable at all.

I just can't see how we do it without completely destroying the economy.

plus, you've ferries coming in right now from what I understand with English people heading for west cork for example ; missus telling me about some local complaining about it on d'radio
ps I do like the Kilkee approach, fcuk off or you wont have a holiday home to come back to in the summer !

[Duff Paddy]

So it looks like we're going to try to suppress rather than contain the virus. I'm not sure why though. Are we going to close our borders after reopening?

New Zealand style. I spoke with someone there during the week and the rumours are they will close their borders for 6 to 12 months with selective re-opening for countries that they view as lower risk. That doesn't seem viable at all.

I just can't see how we do it without completely destroying the economy.

plus, you've ferries coming in right now from what I understand with English people heading for west cork for example ; missus telling me about some local complaining about it on d'radio
ps I do like the Kilkee approach, fcuk off or you wont have a holiday home to come back to in the summer !

The locals have all gone a bit zealot over this - I realise that they’re trying to put the frightened on people but some of it was just anti-Dub bigotry. West cork holiday homes are hardly the preserve of Dubs - there’d be more people with holiday homes from Cork city there and that’s hardly within 2km. I think people are getting a bit carried away with this - the vast majority of people are observing the restrictions.

[redderneck]

So it looks like we're going to try to suppress rather than contain the virus. I'm not sure why though. Are we going to close our borders after reopening?

New Zealand style. I spoke with someone there during the week and the rumours are they will close their borders for 6 to 12 months with selective re-opening for countries that they view as lower risk. That doesn't seem viable at all.

I just can't see how we do it without completely destroying the economy.

plus, you've ferries coming in right now from what I understand with English people heading for west cork for example ; missus telling me about some local complaining about it on d'radio
ps I do like the Kilkee approach, fcuk off or you wont have a holiday home to come back to in the summer !

Soooooooo.

Did Kilkee folk learn their attitude from Limerick folk, or vice versa?

Well-matched anyways.

Hotbeds of diplomacy.

[Gavin Duffy]

Belgium looks to be FUBAR now.

[Floppykid]

Belgium looks to be FUBAR now.

Did they adopt a similar strategy to us?

[Gavin Duffy]

Belgium looks to be FUBAR now.

Did they adopt a similar strategy to us?

Broadly by the looks of it, but not in relation to work perhaps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... t_response