Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

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CM11
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

Gavin Duffy wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:13 pm
camroc1 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:11 pm What's that ? Total number of cases in Dublin week by week ?
Total cases notified to midnight on each date https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/cor ... inireland/
You can track where we are by looking at the 14 day incidence in the 14 day reports. 171/100k today, 159 a week ago but today's report was a high for this week and it was 161 yesterday and last Friday it was nearly 170. So clearly stable and not growing.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

And while you can track a progression of increase in Dublin over the last month, it's slow and really what you're looking for as a best case scenario when trying to live with the virus.

The calculation I did the other day showed an extra 27k cases in Dublin by Dec 31st. Which is roughly 300/day on average (although obviously top loaded). That's not excessive. If it was replicated in the rest of the country, that's averaging under 1000 per day.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

camroc1 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:11 pm What's that ? Total number of cases in Dublin week by week ?

Differences week on week : 166 : 506 : 130 : 110

Looks like a spike followed by a slow reduction - almost as if Level 3 was working in Dublin.
The severe spike was literally up to the week of Level 3, it was already moderating. Basically behaving as it has everywhere else.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

camroc1 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:11 pm What's that ? Total number of cases in Dublin week by week ?

Differences week on week : 166 : 506 : 130 : 110

Looks like a spike followed by a slow reduction - almost as if Level 3 was working in Dublin.
It's not week by week. It's daily figures but he's jumped from the 30th to the 3rd, hence the 506.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

9th September was 67/100k in Dublin
23rd September was 140
7th October was 171.

Definte slowing. And would have looked even better if I'd done it yesterday (and hopefully tomorrow!).
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by camroc1 »

CM11 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:10 pm
camroc1 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:11 pm What's that ? Total number of cases in Dublin week by week ?

Differences week on week : 166 : 506 : 130 : 110

Looks like a spike followed by a slow reduction - almost as if Level 3 was working in Dublin.
It's not week by week. It's daily figures but he's jumped from the 30th to the 3rd, hence the 506.
So, 506/3 = 169; as you say the figures have stabilised, and yet we have scientists, who must know better, telling the media that they are rising exponentially.

It's disgraceful scaremongering.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by diarm »

paddyor wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:52 pm
rfurlong wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:15 pm
cfm93 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:29 pm Press Up have begun their legal proceedings against the state.

https://www.thejournal.ie/press-up-grou ... 9-Oct2020/
Stupid hill to die on ..... with case numbers on the rise, the timing of this isn't a good look for them

They'd be better off suing their insurance company
They're dying anyway moron.
Hard to feel too sorry for Press Up after they've spent much of the last decade hoovering up property leases and driving up rental prices or key money demands for the rest of us.

I wouldn't mind if they were using them but a lot of units they got at good rates during or shortly after the recession and now they're just sitting on them.

They quoted me 250 grand key money and €120k rent for the unit below Captain Americas (formerly Wagamammas) in Cork last year, after key money hadn't been heard of in the city in a decade. I laughed at them and found out since that they're paying less than that for the entire building on their 25 year lease.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

It's simply people just using words that they fundamentally misunderstant. They seem to think that "exponential"="very fast".
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Leinster in London »

alliswell wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:11 am
danthefan wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:00 am
alliswell wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:06 am
Sorry bud, e^x is an example of an exponential function but exponential functions are given by a^x and these functions will grow if both a and x are greater than zero.
The progression described by Nolan would give you 1.04^x which is an exponential function that would grow.

Edit: x being the time in days
Well that's wrong, it decreases if a<1
Yeah that's true. Sorry, my mistake
Some memories I have, but stand to be corrected

If y=a^x then is growth not when dy/dx >o, and exponential growth when d^2y/dx^2> 0 ?

To bring time into it, x is an f(t). growth is when dx/dt> 0, and exponential growth when d^2x/dt^2 >0
Last edited by Leinster in London on Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

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Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:21 pm It's simply people just using words that they fundamentally misunderstant. They seem to think that "exponential"="very fast".
The thing is that he wasn’t even right about it growing in Dublin when he said it. The 3 day incidence fell for 3 days in a row until yesterday and was down week on week overall.

This is what makes me laugh about RTÉ, it was the top story. They have been bigging themselves up for weeks about printing truth in their search for a bailout. Whilst I can appreciate that there is some cover them when one of these lads makes alarmist and wild predictions (so long as it fits a certain political point of view), he was just wrong. And what’s more it’s not like he is a professional of standing in the area. He is an associate professor in biochemistry ffs.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by camroc1 »

Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:21 pm It's simply people just using words that they fundamentally misunderstant. They seem to think that "exponential"="very fast".
The problem with that, is that "exponential growth" has a very specific mathematical meaning, and is being wrongly used by scientists to describe a set of data that is anything but exponential in form.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

camroc1 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:40 pm
Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:21 pm It's simply people just using words that they fundamentally misunderstant. They seem to think that "exponential"="very fast".
The problem with that, is that "exponential growth" has a very specific mathematical meaning, and is being wrongly used by scientists to describe a set of data that is anything but exponential in form.
Yes, I'm fully aware of that. That wasn't a defense of misusing a word with a very specific meaning.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Leinster in London »

camroc1 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:40 pm
Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:21 pm It's simply people just using words that they fundamentally misunderstant. They seem to think that "exponential"="very fast".
The problem with that, is that "exponential growth" has a very specific mathematical meaning, and is being wrongly used by scientists to describe a set of data that is anything but exponential in form.
As population is bounded, exponential growth is only possible when less than half the population is infected.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by de_Selby »

Leinster in London wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:29 pm
alliswell wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:11 am
danthefan wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:00 am
alliswell wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:06 am
Sorry bud, e^x is an example of an exponential function but exponential functions are given by a^x and these functions will grow if both a and x are greater than zero.
The progression described by Nolan would give you 1.04^x which is an exponential function that would grow.

Edit: x being the time in days
Well that's wrong, it decreases if a<1
Yeah that's true. Sorry, my mistake
Some memories I have, but stand to be corrected

If y=a^x then is growth not when dy/dx >o, and exponential growth when d^2y/dx^2> 0 ?

To bring time into it, x is an f(t). growth is when dx/dt> 0, and exponential growth when d^2x/dt^2 >0
the second derivative being >0 means the rate of change is increasing (so you are accelerating in your time example)

but for an exponential function if the first derivative is greater than 0 then the second derivative is too. you are just multiplying by log(a) for each derivative.
exponential growth just means a>1
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

Just looking at the 14-day rate in the different LEAs. Parts of Dublin spiking a lot at the moment.
Ballyfermot-drimnagh with 245/100k.
Kimmage-rathmines with 306/100k. :uhoh:
North Inner City with 222/100k.
Bray east (town) with 210/100k.
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Post by anonymous_joe »

EverReady wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:30 pm
anonymous_joe wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:43 am
EverReady wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:34 am Gino fücking Kenny. A greater idiot you will never meet. I absolutely guarantee he doesn't grasp the broad implications of it.
I see the Indo are driving the anti government Level 4/5 bus today. Them and the IT are a pox
Going to make probate cases fun.

"When did you have your uncle killed? Was it before or after you realised he'd left you the farm?"

:uhoh:
Gino got traction with the medical blow thing which was him trying to legalise blow through the back door. Because he is an idiot he said to himself 'whats emotional and medical and I could use that as well'. Assisted suicide TA DA
I used to be entirely in favour of allowing for assisted dying.

I'm still largely in favour of it, but having done some probate cases I'm genuinely terrified of it being done badly. A certain subset of Irish people will do anything for land.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

506+1

Only 91 cases in Dublin. Really seems to be levelling there, overall.
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Post by Blackrock Bullet »

https://twitter.com/paulgall186/status/ ... 57954?s=21
. I have 53 staff on lay-off, some since 16th March on the PUP payment which has a maximum of €300. They are not entitled to any other supports from social welfare. Imagine running a family home on €300 a week with no end in sight.This is state sponsored poverty. Heartbreaking!
I assume they will be entitled to something more but this really is not sustainable.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Leinster in London »

de_Selby wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:47 pm
Leinster in London wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:29 pm
alliswell wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:11 am
danthefan wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:00 am
alliswell wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:06 am
Sorry bud, e^x is an example of an exponential function but exponential functions are given by a^x and these functions will grow if both a and x are greater than zero.
The progression described by Nolan would give you 1.04^x which is an exponential function that would grow.

Edit: x being the time in days
Well that's wrong, it decreases if a<1
Yeah that's true. Sorry, my mistake
Some memories I have, but stand to be corrected

If y=a^x then is growth not when dy/dx >o, and exponential growth when d^2y/dx^2> 0 ?

To bring time into it, x is an f(t). growth is when dx/dt> 0, and exponential growth when d^2x/dt^2 >0
the second derivative being >0 means the rate of change is increasing (so you are accelerating in your time example)

but for an exponential function if the first derivative is greater than 0 then the second derivative is too. you are just multiplying by log(a) for each derivative.
exponential growth just means a>1
As I said, some bits missing, but a derivative can be always positive, but approach 0. this is when the 2nd derivative =0.
so, it must also be positive to avoid being a straight line.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by MunsterMan!!!!! »

Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:51 pm Just looking at the 14-day rate in the different LEAs. Parts of Dublin spiking a lot at the moment.
Ballyfermot-drimnagh with 245/100k.
Kimmage-rathmines with 306/100k. :uhoh:
North Inner City with 222/100k.
Bray east (town) with 210/100k.

You'd hope that the garda response is focused on these areas and not say the M50, stopping people from going to and fro work............ he says knowingly.

And I should say a Covid response team that go into those areas and try and help the local communities.
Last edited by MunsterMan!!!!! on Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by camroc1 »

Blackrock Bullet wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:34 pm
Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:21 pm It's simply people just using words that they fundamentally misunderstant. They seem to think that "exponential"="very fast".
The thing is that he wasn’t even right about it growing in Dublin when he said it. The 3 day incidence fell for 3 days in a row until yesterday and was down week on week overall.

This is what makes me laugh about RTÉ, it was the top story. They have been bigging themselves up for weeks about printing truth in their search for a bailout. Whilst I can appreciate that there is some cover them when one of these lads makes alarmist and wild predictions (so long as it fits a certain political point of view), he was just wrong. And what’s more it’s not like he is a professional of standing in the area. He is an associate professor in biochemistry ffs.
And is 91 today. Guess what, level 3 works.

Cork numbers going up I note.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by de_Selby »

Leinster in London wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:53 pm
de_Selby wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:47 pm
Leinster in London wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:29 pm
alliswell wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:11 am
danthefan wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:00 am

Well that's wrong, it decreases if a<1
Yeah that's true. Sorry, my mistake
Some memories I have, but stand to be corrected

If y=a^x then is growth not when dy/dx >o, and exponential growth when d^2y/dx^2> 0 ?

To bring time into it, x is an f(t). growth is when dx/dt> 0, and exponential growth when d^2x/dt^2 >0
the second derivative being >0 means the rate of change is increasing (so you are accelerating in your time example)

but for an exponential function if the first derivative is greater than 0 then the second derivative is too. you are just multiplying by log(a) for each derivative.
exponential growth just means a>1
As I said, some bits missing, but a derivative can be always positive, but approach 0. this is when the 2nd derivative =0.
so, it must also be positive to avoid being a straight line.
if y=a^x

dy/dx = a^x log(a)

d2y/d2x = a^x log(a)*log(a)
etc
if the first derivative is >0 then so will any higher derivatives because they only differ by multiplying by another log(a) which is a constant.

you might be thinking of determining inflection points but a^x only has one at 0.
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Post by cfm93 »

First under 100 cases day in Dublin in over 2 weeks.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

Not a good day for Ryan to talk about Dublin still being out of control. That brings the 5 day average nicely down.
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Post by Gavin Duffy »

No countries left on the green list :lol:
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

Gavin Duffy wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:05 pm No countries left on the green list :lol:
:lol:

We wouldn't be allowed go anywhere in the EU anyway as we're a red country.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by EverReady »

Gavin Duffy wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:05 pm No countries left on the green list :lol:
I saw that. Absolute nobs. I remember the 80's and this is going to be like that only with no states to fück off to
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Leinster in London »

de_Selby wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:01 pm

if y=a^x

dy/dx = a^x log(a)

d2y/d2x = a^x log(a)*log(a)
etc
if the first derivative is >0 then so will any higher derivatives because they only differ by multiplying by another log(a) which is a constant.

you might be thinking of determining inflection points but a^x only has one at 0.

:thumbup: It's been a while since I studied maths, well that's my excuse.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Leinster in London »

EverReady wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:12 pm
Gavin Duffy wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:05 pm No countries left on the green list :lol:
I saw that. Absolute nobs. I remember the 80's and this is going to be like that only with no states to fück off to
Fúck off we're full
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Leinsterman »

CM11 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:04 pm Not a good day for Ryan to talk about Dublin still being out of control. That brings the 5 day average nicely down.
He really needs to be called out on that.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by HighKingLeinster »

Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:51 pm Just looking at the 14-day rate in the different LEAs. Parts of Dublin spiking a lot at the moment.
Ballyfermot-drimnagh with 245/100k.
Kimmage-rathmines with 306/100k. :uhoh:
North Inner City with 222/100k.
Bray east (town) with 210/100k.
All shitholes (except Bray East which is a slightly better part of Bray)
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by HighKingLeinster »

Gavin Duffy wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:05 pm No countries left on the green list :lol:
damn i was just about to book a riverboat tour of the Faroes and then nip over for some shopping in Greenland
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

Leinsterman wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:19 pm
CM11 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:04 pm Not a good day for Ryan to talk about Dublin still being out of control. That brings the 5 day average nicely down.
He really needs to be called out on that.
No one in the media seem to want to call any of the doom merchants out. Probably just scared of getting egg on their own face.
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Post by camroc1 »

They honestly don't know enough to.

Remember Charlie Bird famously failed his LC !
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Post by Duff Paddy »

Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:53 pm 506+1

Only 91 cases in Dublin. Really seems to be levelling there, overall.
The link between cases and deaths is so weak now not sure why people are still obsessed with the daily cases numbers

Another day with just one reported death - that should be the headline
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

Leinsterman wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:19 pm
CM11 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:04 pm Not a good day for Ryan to talk about Dublin still being out of control. That brings the 5 day average nicely down.
He really needs to be called out on that.
Is there a media ombudsman?

I mean, seriously, RTÉ print this shit

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.rte.ie/amp/1165543/

Someone is calling them out at least but it’ll go under the radar

https://twitter.com/eoinneylon/status/1 ... 05472?s=21
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Post by Duff Paddy »

anonymous_joe wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:52 pm
EverReady wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:30 pm
anonymous_joe wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:43 am
EverReady wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:34 am Gino fücking Kenny. A greater idiot you will never meet. I absolutely guarantee he doesn't grasp the broad implications of it.
I see the Indo are driving the anti government Level 4/5 bus today. Them and the IT are a pox
Going to make probate cases fun.

"When did you have your uncle killed? Was it before or after you realised he'd left you the farm?"

:uhoh:
Gino got traction with the medical blow thing which was him trying to legalise blow through the back door. Because he is an idiot he said to himself 'whats emotional and medical and I could use that as well'. Assisted suicide TA DA
I used to be entirely in favour of allowing for assisted dying.

I'm still largely in favour of it, but having done some probate cases I'm genuinely terrified of it being done badly. A certain subset of Irish people will do anything for land.
My general rule of thumb is that if Gino Kelly is for something, then I’m against it
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

Duff Paddy wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:39 pm
Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:53 pm 506+1

Only 91 cases in Dublin. Really seems to be levelling there, overall.
The link between cases and deaths is so weak now not sure why people are still obsessed with the daily cases numbers

Another day with just one reported death - that should be the headline
Actually, the CFR is fairly steady so the link is there. It's just a lot lower than people think it is. But because we've gone heavy on the scaremongering, it's very hard to row back. I flagged this months ago. That if we get to flu levels of hospitalisations and deaths, people will be very hard to convince that this is 'acceptable'.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Duff Paddy »

CM11 wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:42 pm
Duff Paddy wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:39 pm
Nolanator wrote: Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:53 pm 506+1

Only 91 cases in Dublin. Really seems to be levelling there, overall.
The link between cases and deaths is so weak now not sure why people are still obsessed with the daily cases numbers

Another day with just one reported death - that should be the headline
Actually, the CFR is fairly steady so the link is there. It's just a lot lower than people think it is. But because we've gone heavy on the scaremongering, it's very hard to row back. I flagged this months ago. That if we get to flu levels of hospitalisations and deaths, people will be very hard to convince that this is 'acceptable'.
Are you sure? A table of the past 3 weeks would be interesting (even though some reported deaths aren’t contemporaneous)
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

Every recent 14 day incident report is showing CFR fluctuating around 0.1%.
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