Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

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MunsterMan!!!!!
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by MunsterMan!!!!! »

CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:48 pm
cfm93 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:37 pm 8 admissions to ICU in the last 24 hours. Into the interesting part of the game of chicken now.
They have to give level 3 a chance to work, the media are saying 10 days to stop lockdown when it's taken 3 weeks for Dublin's number to start to come down a bit, they are a depressing joke at this stage. Going into lockdown wouldn't have stopped those people going into ICU.
I think Dublin are doing well and we've plenty of hospital capacity but unfortunately the rest of the country aren't faring so well with most of the spare capacity in Dublin.
Definitely green shoots in Dublin and you'd hope that it might have the added affect for the rest of the country, I think I've read somewhere that 40+% of the population either living in or commute in or out of Dublin. Its the reason why a national population basis is a crude comparison metrics as it can't account for high population congregation like that.
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Blackrock Bullet
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

Botha Boy wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:53 pm Sorry if RR but this is a good read in The Atlantic on the concept of "overdispersion" patterns of Covid19 transmission. Talks to how Korea and Japan responded in particular ways to the pandemic.Covers a lot in an accessible way ...

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ic/616548/
This is why we needed better contact tracing over the summer and good looks at all outbreaks. We needed to figure out the settings where this spread and looked to do better i.e. that South Korean Starbucks.

Look at the them go ape over the latest 69 cases in Seoul

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/abcnews.go. ... s-73466630
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Botha Boy
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Botha Boy »

Blackrock Bullet wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:03 pm
Botha Boy wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:53 pm Sorry if RR but this is a good read in The Atlantic on the concept of "overdispersion" patterns of Covid19 transmission. Talks to how Korea and Japan responded in particular ways to the pandemic.Covers a lot in an accessible way ...

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ic/616548/
This is why we needed better contact tracing over the summer and good looks at all outbreaks. We needed to figure out the settings where this spread and looked to do better i.e. that South Korean Starbucks.

Look at the them go ape over the latest 69 cases in Seoul

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/abcnews.go. ... s-73466630
Gee, could Seoul be their Donegal ? ... :lol: :lol: :lol:
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camroc1
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by camroc1 »

I note that capital spending is going to be protected in the budget.
On the capital expenditure side, the Government will also ensure that the increase in capital investment set out in the National Development Plan is implemented to support the recovery in the economy.

"This would see core gross voted capital expenditure of almost €9.2 billion next year, an increase of almost €1 billion on the gross voted expenditure amount set out for this year in Revised Estimate for Public Services 2020 (REV)," Mr McGrath said.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1 ... on-budget/

This is a welcome change of previous governments to cut capital spending hard, and fast when ever the economy hic-coughed.
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HighKingLeinster
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by HighKingLeinster »

cfm93 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:37 pm 8 admissions to ICU in the last 24 hours. Into the interesting part of the game of chicken now.
They have to give level 3 a chance to work, the media are saying 10 days to stop lockdown when it's taken 3 weeks for Dublin's number to start to come down a bit, they are a depressing joke at this stage. Going into lockdown wouldn't have stopped those people going into ICU.
The next 2 weeks are crucial
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Mullet 2
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Mullet 2 »

Gavin Duffy wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:44 pm
Mullet 2 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:28 pm
Gavin Duffy wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:26 pm
Mullet 2 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:20 pm Michael McNamara’s Covid committee heavily hinting a decision was made not to transfer patients from nursing homes to hospitals.

In affect triaging then. If this decision is traced back to Harris he might not be such a darling of Twitter
That would be up to their doctors. It was discussed extensively at the time.
It basically never happened

Claiming that was down to doctors in nursing homes is stretching a bit
Shoving 90 year olds into ICU in general doesn't make much medical sense, as was discussed extensively at the time.
Because logic and medical stories go hand in hand in Ireland :lol:
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Duff Paddy
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Duff Paddy »

Leinsterman wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:15 am I'm not in the least bit surprised. I suspected they would do this anyway. If that's the case, they may as well move to Level 4 or 5 for those two weeks.
In actual fact, they should still leave primary schools open. Still no real indication that kids that age are spreading it.
Finally though, they spent months saying they wanted to keep schools open and now they say "ah sure, we may as well keep them closed for a second week at mid-term"
Is this Level 5.2?
We’re like the Irish rugby team - we always shit the bed when the pressure comes on
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

>1k cases in NI announced today. Jaysis. Mind you, no deaths.

Fúcking hell, Derry & Strabane with >600/100k.
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Mullet 2
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Mullet 2 »

Pubs being open maybe not the best idea after all
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Leinsterman
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Leinsterman »

Blame the bogballers
cfm93
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by cfm93 »

Nolanator wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:25 pm >1k cases in NI announced today. Jaysis. Mind you, no deaths.

Fúcking hell, Derry & Strabane with >600/100k.
It's >800/100k now.
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rfurlong
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by rfurlong »

Mullet 2 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:29 pm Pubs being open maybe not the best idea after all
but, but, but .......

:nod:
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alliswell
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by alliswell »

Image
Oh shit, it's almost like Philip Nolan knows what exponential growth is after all.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

cfm93 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:12 pm
Nolanator wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:25 pm >1k cases in NI announced today. Jaysis. Mind you, no deaths.

Fúcking hell, Derry & Strabane with >600/100k.
It's >800/100k now.
Is there anyone left to get the virus there now? :uhoh:
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by ticketlessinseattle »

HighKingLeinster wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:22 pm
cfm93 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:42 pm
CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:37 pm 8 admissions to ICU in the last 24 hours. Into the interesting part of the game of chicken now.
They have to give level 3 a chance to work, the media are saying 10 days to stop lockdown when it's taken 3 weeks for Dublin's number to start to come down a bit, they are a depressing joke at this stage. Going into lockdown wouldn't have stopped those people going into ICU.
The next 2 weeks are crucial
I think it was this week and next week and then we're grand ?
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EverReady
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by EverReady »

Mullet 2 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:29 pm Pubs being open maybe not the best idea after all
Why not?
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CM11
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:16 pm Image
Oh shit, it's almost like Philip Nolan knows what exponential growth is after all.
The second graph isn't exponential surely? Straight line on a linear scale?
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alliswell
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by alliswell »

CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:26 pm
alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:16 pm Image
Oh shit, it's almost like Philip Nolan knows what exponential growth is after all.
The second graph isn't exponential surely? Straight line on a linear scale?
Check out the y-axis
It's like a graph of a log of the case numbers for each day. As Duff mentioned yesterday if this gives a straight line it implies exponential growth
Last edited by alliswell on Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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normilet
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by normilet »

alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:28 pm
CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:26 pm
alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:16 pm Image
Oh shit, it's almost like Philip Nolan knows what exponential growth is after all.
The second graph isn't exponential surely? Straight line on a linear scale?
Check out the y-axis
Ha, I was wondering who'd spot that first.
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Jim Lahey
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Jim Lahey »

cfm93 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:12 pm
Nolanator wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:25 pm >1k cases in NI announced today. Jaysis. Mind you, no deaths.

Fúcking hell, Derry & Strabane with >600/100k.
It's >800/100k now.
No doubt Derry people are whinging about this being someone else’s fault.
The GAA closed up shop probably just in time to avoid being directly blamed for this.
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EverReady
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Post by EverReady »

I think we can all agree it is called Londonderry
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CM11
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:28 pm
CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:26 pm
alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:16 pm Image
Oh shit, it's almost like Philip Nolan knows what exponential growth is after all.
The second graph isn't exponential surely? Straight line on a linear scale?
Check out the y-axis
It's like a graph of a log of the case numbers for each day. As Duff mentioned yesterday if this gives a straight line it implies exponential growth
Every two weeks. Still linear. Edit doh! Too distracted. Ignore this.

Cases in Dublin are not growing exponentially and it's too early to plot the rest of the country. Hospitalisations have tracked cases (roughly 3%).
Last edited by CM11 on Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
cfm93
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by cfm93 »

alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:16 pm Image
Oh shit, it's almost like Philip Nolan knows what exponential growth is after all.
The problem with him putting out graphs like this is the line at the top 'if nothing changes'. Something has changed and, as best we can tell with the info we have, it is having a positive impact in the place where it started first.

EDIT: Also data to October 1st, so the data before we started to see the stabilisation of the numbers in Dublin.
Last edited by cfm93 on Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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alliswell
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by alliswell »

CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:33 pm
alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:28 pm
CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:26 pm
alliswell wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:16 pm Image
Oh shit, it's almost like Philip Nolan knows what exponential growth is after all.
The second graph isn't exponential surely? Straight line on a linear scale?
Check out the y-axis
It's like a graph of a log of the case numbers for each day. As Duff mentioned yesterday if this gives a straight line it implies exponential growth
Every two weeks. Still linear.

Cases in Dublin are not growing exponentially and it's too early to plot the rest of the country. Hospitalisations have tracked cases (roughly 3%).
The second graph is the same points as the first graph plotted on a logarithmic scale.

Nobody from NPHET has ever argued that case numbers in Dublin are growing exponentially. The point was made that hospitalisations and case numbers were growing exponentially which led to great ridicule for Philo.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:33 pm Every two weeks. Still linear.

Eh? It's a straight line on a log-linear plot. It's exponential, the only thing influencing the rate of doubling is the slope of that log-linear line.
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CM11
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

See my edit. I was distracted and looked at the x axis instead of y.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

:thumbup:

Thought you really were going to have to retire your nickname.
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HighKingLeinster
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by HighKingLeinster »

EverReady wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:30 pm I think we can all agree it is called Londonderry
Ronaderry?
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rfurlong
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by rfurlong »

I look forward to the two BB's teardown of this data ....
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alliswell
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by alliswell »

rfurlong wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:53 pm I look forward to the two BB's teardown of this data ....
Tbf I think BB had the good sense not to claim that the head of NPHET modelling wing either didn't know what exponential growth was or was deliberately misinterpreting data.
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CM11
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

To be honest, I don't think it's helpful to talk about the country as a whole. There should be acknowledgement of areas doing well and equally highlighting where areas are seeing a big increase (although they mostly do this). When you get articles with no clarification from NPHET about areas experiencing exponential growth when they're not, it does lead to a lack of buy in for their warnings.
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CM11
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/hea ... 04833.html

I'm going to have to sue the Indo for plagiarising me!
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EverReady
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by EverReady »

So what if it is rising exponentially or any of the nentiallys its killing fück all people. One of the reasons the ludicrous overreacting is happening is they didn't secure the normal flus vaccine pipeline and that's what they are really worried about
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Post by paddyor »

Anyone used Vodafone for broadband? Would it be suitable for a business working in the cloud?
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

EverReady wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:14 pm So what if it is rising exponentially or any of the nentiallys its killing fück all people. One of the reasons the ludicrous overreacting is happening is they didn't secure the normal flus vaccine pipeline and that's what they are really worried about
Why do you constantly ignore the fact that we don't know how many people it'll kill in three weeks?

I'm far from an alarmist lockdown fetishist, but it's well-established that the serious medical stuff lags the case increase by 2-3 weeks. The proportion of new cases over 65 is also creeping up, which is concerning, although it's still very much mostly young people.

Suggesting level 5 just because is a load of ask me bollocks, but your line of it being harmless is just as daft in the other direction.
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Post by danthefan »

paddyor wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:25 pm Anyone used Vodafone for broadband? Would it be suitable for a business working in the cloud?
Aren't they just renting their lines from Eir? So should be similar I'd have thought.
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CM11
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by CM11 »

Nolanator wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:28 pm
EverReady wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:14 pm So what if it is rising exponentially or any of the nentiallys its killing fück all people. One of the reasons the ludicrous overreacting is happening is they didn't secure the normal flus vaccine pipeline and that's what they are really worried about
Why do you constantly ignore the fact that we don't know how many people it'll kill in three weeks?

I'm far from an alarmist lockdown fetishist, but it's well-established that the serious medical stuff lags the case increase by 2-3 weeks. The proportion of new cases over 65 is also creeping up, which is concerning, although it's still very much mostly young people.

Suggesting level 5 just because is a load of ask me bollocks, but your line of it being harmless is just as daft in the other direction.
While I'm sure it's the demographics, hospitalisations including ICU and deaths have stayed steady over the last 6-8 weeks.

It's not harmless and ER and Duff can sometimes be too dismissive but as Collins pointed out in the IT article cam put up, it'd be quite scary to hear daily reports of diagnosis and deaths in a range of diseases and the question is whether we've got to the stage where it's akin to other diseases that we live with.
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Post by Leinsterman »

CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:13 pm https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/hea ... 04833.html

I'm going to have to sue the Indo for plagiarising me!
From the sub heading:
Shut-down could even lead to an increase in numbers as teenagers socialise during time off
Someone else said the very same thing to me earlier.
danthefan wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:33 pm Aren't they just renting their lines from Eir? So should be similar I'd have thought.
From the local cabinets to the house is common but upstream of the cabinets they have their own infrastructure I think. That's where the problem lies. If they don't have the bandwidth upstream of the cabinet, the bandwidth to the home will be shite.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by Nolanator »

CM11 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:34 pm
Nolanator wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:28 pm
EverReady wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:14 pm So what if it is rising exponentially or any of the nentiallys its killing fück all people. One of the reasons the ludicrous overreacting is happening is they didn't secure the normal flus vaccine pipeline and that's what they are really worried about
Why do you constantly ignore the fact that we don't know how many people it'll kill in three weeks?

I'm far from an alarmist lockdown fetishist, but it's well-established that the serious medical stuff lags the case increase by 2-3 weeks. The proportion of new cases over 65 is also creeping up, which is concerning, although it's still very much mostly young people.

Suggesting level 5 just because is a load of ask me bollocks, but your line of it being harmless is just as daft in the other direction.
While I'm sure it's the demographics, hospitalisations including ICU and deaths have stayed steady over the last 6-8 weeks.

It's not harmless and ER and Duff can sometimes be too dismissive but as Collins pointed out in the IT article cam put up, it'd be quite scary to hear daily reports of diagnosis and deaths in a range of diseases and the question is whether we've got to the stage where it's akin to other diseases that we live with.
Well, hospitalisations and ICU have increased a bit recently. Still low, but if that follows the trend of the last few weeks they'll continue up a bit. The game of chicken you mentioned being whether we assume that the increase will taper off in line with new cases dropping, á la Dublin.

The daily cases thing is a bit doomy. My mum has made a few "gosh that's terrible" comments when they're announced, to which I always ask about deaths/ICU increase etc. The virus is going to spread, shitting the bed about it spreading helps no-one. Controlling the manner in which it does, does.
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Re: Rugby NAMA thread Revisited Rugby

Post by alliswell »

Nolanator wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:28 pm
EverReady wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:14 pm So what if it is rising exponentially or any of the nentiallys its killing fück all people. One of the reasons the ludicrous overreacting is happening is they didn't secure the normal flus vaccine pipeline and that's what they are really worried about
Why do you constantly ignore the fact that we don't know how many people it'll kill in three weeks?

I'm far from an alarmist lockdown fetishist, but it's well-established that the serious medical stuff lags the case increase by 2-3 weeks. The proportion of new cases over 65 is also creeping up, which is concerning, although it's still very much mostly young people.

Suggesting level 5 just because is a load of ask me bollocks, but your line of it being harmless is just as daft in the other direction.
Don't worry, ER will behave now they've threatened to give teachers an extra week's holiday
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