Planet Rugby Forum

Blackrock Bullet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:32 am Good piece in the Australian Financial Review on Australia. I don't agree with the guy on the initial lockdown, it had to be done from a risk mitigation perspective. However, his points on how we build public policy are dead right.

Why I quit rather than be silenced: Vic Treasury insider
A former Victorian Treasury economist explains how he quit to keep speaking out against policy blunders.

Sanjeev Sabhlok Contributor

Sep 16, 2020 – 3.05pm

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Last week I quit my job as an economist in the Victorian Department of Finance and Treasury so that I would be free to speak out against the state’s management of the COVID-19 infection.

I had made a number of criticisms of the state government on social media. The head of human relations at Treasury asked me to remove them. I considered deleting the few direct criticisms, but they wanted all indirect criticism removed too. I resigned on the same day, the only honourable course for a free citizen of Australia. I never dreamed I would see some of the tactics being used to defend the state’s health.

The pandemic policies being pursued in Australia – particularly in Victoria – are the most heavy-handed possible, a sledgehammer to kill a swarm of flies. These policies are having hugely adverse economic, social and health effects, with the poorer sections of the community that don’t have the ability to work from home suffering the most.

Australia is signalling to the world that it is closed for business and doesn’t care for human freedoms. This will dampen business investment but also impact future skilled migration, the education industry and tourism.

The whole thing hinges on the scare created by politicians and health professionals. For instance, Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton claims this is the “greatest public health challenge since the Spanish flu”.

But this is no Spanish flu – we can verify that easily.

The Spanish flu killed at least 50 million people worldwide in 1918 when the global population was 1.8 billion. Proportionately, to be as lethal as Spanish flu, a virus would have to kill at least 210 million people today. Instead, only around 0.9 million have died so far (compare this also with the 60 million who ordinarily die each year).

What about a second wave? There has never been a second wave hundreds of times bigger than the first. We can be reasonably certain that while this virus may create further ripples, its ultimate magnitude will end up in the range of the 1957 Asian flu.

But even if the pandemic had been as big as the Spanish flu, lockdowns could never have been justified. There are strong scientific arguments against lockdowns too.

So what should the government have done? The data were clear from February itself that the elderly are many times more vulnerable to a serious outcome than the young. It was necessary, therefore, to work out a targeted age-based strategy and start aggressively protecting and isolating the elderly, even as the rest of the population was advised on relevant precautions. But that wasn’t done.

The need for good policy process does not disappear just because we face a public health crisis. In fact, it gets even more urgent.

The Victorian Guide to Regulation notes that “It is not possible for governments to provide a completely ‘risk free’ society, or to prevent every possible event that might cause harm”. Further: “The direct and indirect costs imposed by regulatory approaches may not be … immediately obvious. Risk regulation that is poorly targeted or costly will divert resources from other priorities.”strong text

Governments back in February needed to commission a cost-benefit analysis of alternative policy options that took into account different scenarios (such as with and without a vaccine). Thereafter, the best option had to be picked given the uncertainty, but consistent also with the need to intrude minimally into human freedoms. This cost-benefit analysis and policies needed then to be updated as new information emerged (such as the fact that epidemiological models have badly exaggerated the risk).

Governments should have also realised at the outset that they are hostage to chronic groupthink and actively sought alternative advice. I attempted repeatedly to raise my voice within my public sector role, but my attempts were rebuffed. The bureaucracy has clamped down on frank and fearless, impartial advice, in a misplaced determination to support whatever the government decides, (instead of performing its taxpayer-funded duty of providing forthright analysis of alternatives).

While there is scientific argument against lockdowns, there are divergent views on matters such as the effectiveness of masks. I am a mask fanatic but there was never any reason to mandate these debatable requirements. Voluntary, performance-based rules would allow the private sector to innovate, leaving people with the power of agency, to determine their own fate – thereby minimising economic harm, and harm to mental health and general well-being.

So what happens now? Billions of dollars in income and wealth have been wiped out in the name of a virus that is no worse than the Asian flu and which can (even now) be managed by isolating the elderly and taking a range of voluntary, innovative measures. All the border closures, all the lockdowns, all the curfews in Melbourne will not eradicate the virus from planet Earth.

The problem for politicians now is to reverse course without losing their job. I don’t know how they plan to do it but if they don’t do it sooner rather than later the damage to Australia’s future would have become so great it would undo the good work of decades of reform.

Interestingly, the Department of Finance chief seemed to have concerns here but did not come out with them.

We failed badly from mid April onwards where a government drunk on 0% borrowing and kudos decided to keep NPHET in charge of the country far too long than was necessary.

This week was their chance to get that back. They finally stepped back and stopped listening only to the NPHET pioneers who used newspaper cuttings of one off pub outbreaks as their "evidence" for not reopening. They finally looked to get in line with EU on travel, belatedly (after the summer months) providing some support for our tourism sector, another key industry in aviation and also in decency to people who live and work abroad who want to get home. They finally were putting a screen up to NPHET and were looking at wider, cost benefit aspects of decision making.

But in one full swoop, they undermined their own thought out plan with their nonsense of Dublin on level 2. Micheal Martin put on a tour de force in shambolic communication. They are going to continue shitting themselves here as they live day to day and overthink things.

danthefan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:41 am We're going away today. The kids were negative so fudge it, going for it.

danthefan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:41 am We're going away today. The kids were negative so fudge it, going for it.

Blackrock Bullet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:08 am

Nolanator wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:01 am Two good friends are planning on getting married in Kerry in December. That's looking less and less likely.
They're in England, most of the guests will be from Dublin, with a not insignificant number travelling internationally.

Shame, was really looking forward to it.

Tbf I wouldn't organise anything like that at the moment. If it's really pressing for VISA reasons or because Grandad is getting on, just do family only.

EverReady wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:55 am Possible alright Nols but I keep hope that government will cop on. As I was saying and that lad also alludes to politics has had so much to do with the response all over the world. You would presume when the wheels are nearly completely off they will give it up and act

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:55 am To be honest, a quiet wedding and then a piss up without the wedding stress isn't the worst thing in the world. We'll all need a proper party when this is all over.

Voluntary, performance-based rules would allow the private sector to innovate, leaving people with the power of agency, to determine their own fate

EverReady wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:50 am

Blackrock Bullet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:49 am

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:39 am What's an acceptable number of deaths/patients in ICU over the next few months ER?

We're back!

He's absolutely gone off on one. Lockdown has him wet

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:09 am When this is all over end of next year hopefully, imagine what the price of flights,hotels and package holidays will be.

EverReady wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:23 am

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:16 am Plenty of stupid people ignoring the positive test or doing what you mentioned earlier (I'm staying home! With 20 of my closest friends.....).

I suppose that's the other side of the coin, idiots are going to idiot and the rest of us get punished. That said, we're probably all guilty of not keeping a bit of distance between ourselves and close family and friends.

Nah we've been pretty good. Parents no hugs though the kids forget sometimes. Don't see them as much. Generally everything is a little bit distant. My 4 year old popped into the shops with the missus the other day to get milk and they realised she hadn't been in the shops since March.

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:25 am Ah the HSE are being directed on this Duff. Which is why we don't have the ridiculous situation in the UK with two separate stats (are they still doing that?).

EverReady wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:23 am

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:16 am Plenty of stupid people ignoring the positive test or doing what you mentioned earlier (I'm staying home! With 20 of my closest friends.....).

I suppose that's the other side of the coin, idiots are going to idiot and the rest of us get punished. That said, we're probably all guilty of not keeping a bit of distance between ourselves and close family and friends.

Nah we've been pretty good. Parents no hugs though the kids forget sometimes. Don't see them as much. Generally everything is a little bit distant. My 4 year old popped into the shops with the missus the other day to get milk and they realised she hadn't been in the shops since March.

Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:37 am

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:25 am Ah the HSE are being directed on this Duff. Which is why we don't have the ridiculous situation in the UK with two separate stats (are they still doing that?).

The HSE just test everyone and report it as a covid death or not depending on the test result. Dying with covid or dying from covid are not the same thing but it’s all recorded as covid deaths. Is it a ridiculous situation if a terminal cancer patient dies of organ failure but gets labelled as a covid death as they had a positive test result?

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:41 am

Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:37 am

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:25 am Ah the HSE are being directed on this Duff. Which is why we don't have the ridiculous situation in the UK with two separate stats (are they still doing that?).

The HSE just test everyone and report it as a covid death or not depending on the test result. Dying with covid or dying from covid are not the same thing but it’s all recorded as covid deaths. Is it a ridiculous situation if a terminal cancer patient dies of organ failure but gets labelled as a covid death as they had a positive test result?

And they have been directed by the government to do that, in line with WHO recommendations.

Of course there's deaths in there which aren't strict covid deaths but as I've already said, I think you're overegging how many. Even if it's half our deaths, that still puts covid way higher than flu.

Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:22 am

EverReady wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:50 am

Blackrock Bullet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:49 am

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:39 am What's an acceptable number of deaths/patients in ICU over the next few months ER?

We're back!

He's absolutely gone off on one. Lockdown has him wet

For a guy named Statto he disappointingly has no concept of statistics

Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:42 am

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:41 am

Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:37 am

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:25 am Ah the HSE are being directed on this Duff. Which is why we don't have the ridiculous situation in the UK with two separate stats (are they still doing that?).

The HSE just test everyone and report it as a covid death or not depending on the test result. Dying with covid or dying from covid are not the same thing but it’s all recorded as covid deaths. Is it a ridiculous situation if a terminal cancer patient dies of organ failure but gets labelled as a covid death as they had a positive test result?

And they have been directed by the government to do that, in line with WHO recommendations.

Of course there's deaths in there which aren't strict covid deaths but as I've already said, I think you're overegging how many. Even if it's half our deaths, that still puts covid way higher than flu.

There we go with the flu again

Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:32 am What is this hug your grandparents bollox. My lifetime total hugs received from grandparents? 0. This country has gone so soft.

Leinsterman wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:52 am

Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:32 am What is this hug your grandparents bollox. My lifetime total hugs received from grandparents? 0. This country has gone so soft.

My kids constantly hug their grandparents. They do see an awful lot of them though. I really don't see anything wrong with it. It's not as if the grandparents are on the spectrum

danthefan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:41 am We're going away today. The kids were negative so fudge it, going for it.

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:07 pm no problem with these forthcoming restrictions, but if they stop school/kids sports I'll be raging

Social and family gatherings
In your home or garden
Visitors from 1 other household only OR your own household only.
This will be determined by the prevailing public health advice for the county or other defined geographical area.

Other settings outside your home or garden
No social or family gatherings should take place in other settings.

Weddings
Up to 25 people can attend a wedding ceremony and reception.

Organised indoor gatherings
These are controlled environments with a named event organiser, owner or manager.
For example: business, training events, conferences, events in theatres and cinemas or other arts events (excluding sport).
No organised indoor gatherings should take place.

Organised outdoor gatherings
These are controlled environments with a named event organiser, owner or manager. For example: outdoor Arts events, training events.
Gatherings of up to 15 people can take place.

Sports
Training
Outdoors: Non contact training only in pods of up to 15 (exemption for professional/elite/inter-county sports/senior club championship).
Indoors: Individual training only. No exercise or dance classes.

Matches and events
No matches or events to take place.
Exemption: professional/elite/inter-county/club championship/horse-racing can take place behind closed doors.

Gyms, leisure centres and swimming pools
Gyms/leisure centres/swimming pools open with protective measures, for individual training only.
These can open with protective measures, for individual training only.

Religious services
Services move online. Places of worship remain open for private prayer.

Funerals
Up to 25 mourners can attend.

Museums, galleries and other cultural attractions
All venues closed.

Libraries will be available for e-services and call and collect.

Bars, cafes and restaurants (including hotel restaurants and bars)
Additional restrictions for indoor dining.

Wet pubs
Remain open with additional restrictions.

Nightclubs, discos and casinos
Nightclubs, discos and casinos will remain closed.

Hotels and accommodation
Open but services limited to residents.

Retail and services (for example: hairdressers, beauticians, barbers)
Face coverings must be worn.
Open with protective measures in place.
There is specific guidance available for:
the retail sector
shopping centres
spas
shopping safely during the pandemic

Work
Work from home unless absolutely necessary to attend in person.

Domestic travel
Stay in your county (or other defined geographical area) apart from work, education and other essential purposes, if appropriate.

Schools, early learning and childcare services, adult and higher education
Schools and creches are open with protective measures.
Further, higher and adult education to escalate all appropriate protective measures and limit congregation as far as possible.

Outdoor playgrounds, play areas and parks
All remain open with protective measures in place.

Transport
Face coverings must be worn.
Walk or cycle where possible.
Public transport capacity will be limited to 50%.
Essential workers and essential purposes only.

Those aged over 70 and the medically vulnerable
Those aged 70 years and over and the medically vulnerable should exercise judgement regarding the extent to which they engage with others and in activities outside home.
Specific guidance will be provided.

Long-term residential care facilities (nursing and care homes)
Visits suspended, aside from critical and compassionate circumstances

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:12 pm

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:07 pm no problem with these forthcoming restrictions, but if they stop school/kids sports I'll be raging

That's what the forthcoming restrictions will do.

Level 3 stops most sport, certainly kids.

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:25 pm meanwhile .... "its a disgrace Joe" ... that people who were earning more on PUP than they would have in their part time jobs, should have their payments cut.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/a ... 38540.html

I think IBEC estimated that over 40% of people in receipt of PUP were better off than before the pandemic started ...... but its "cruel punishment" to taper the payments back ?

anonymous_joe wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:42 pm

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:25 pm meanwhile .... "its a disgrace Joe" ... that people who were earning more on PUP than they would have in their part time jobs, should have their payments cut.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/a ... 38540.html

I think IBEC estimated that over 40% of people in receipt of PUP were better off than before the pandemic started ...... but its "cruel punishment" to taper the payments back ?

A large chunk of the population feel excluded from opportunity in Ireland.

It's pretty easy to succeed here if you're middle-class or above and go to a reasonable school, but if not, it's tough enough to make it here compared to a lot of European countries. Explains why certain sections of society are deeply resentful of the economic recovery. (And current situation.)

anonymous_joe wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:42 pm

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:25 pm meanwhile .... "its a disgrace Joe" ... that people who were earning more on PUP than they would have in their part time jobs, should have their payments cut.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/a ... 38540.html

I think IBEC estimated that over 40% of people in receipt of PUP were better off than before the pandemic started ...... but its "cruel punishment" to taper the payments back ?

A large chunk of the population feel excluded from opportunity in Ireland.

It's pretty easy to succeed here if you're middle-class or above and go to a reasonable school, but if not, it's tough enough to make it here compared to a lot of European countries. Explains why certain sections of society are deeply resentful of the economic recovery. (And current situation.)

camroc1 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:01 pm

anonymous_joe wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:42 pm

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:25 pm meanwhile .... "its a disgrace Joe" ... that people who were earning more on PUP than they would have in their part time jobs, should have their payments cut.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/a ... 38540.html

I think IBEC estimated that over 40% of people in receipt of PUP were better off than before the pandemic started ...... but its "cruel punishment" to taper the payments back ?

A large chunk of the population feel excluded from opportunity in Ireland.

It's pretty easy to succeed here if you're middle-class or above and go to a reasonable school, but if not, it's tough enough to make it here compared to a lot of European countries. Explains why certain sections of society are deeply resentful of the economic recovery. (And current situation.)

Suaad Alshleh says "hi".

camroc1 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:01 pm

anonymous_joe wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:42 pm

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:25 pm meanwhile .... "its a disgrace Joe" ... that people who were earning more on PUP than they would have in their part time jobs, should have their payments cut.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/a ... 38540.html

I think IBEC estimated that over 40% of people in receipt of PUP were better off than before the pandemic started ...... but its "cruel punishment" to taper the payments back ?

A large chunk of the population feel excluded from opportunity in Ireland.

It's pretty easy to succeed here if you're middle-class or above and go to a reasonable school, but if not, it's tough enough to make it here compared to a lot of European countries. Explains why certain sections of society are deeply resentful of the economic recovery. (And current situation.)

Suaad Ashleh says "hi".

EverReady wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:35 pm

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:23 pm

CM11 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:12 pm

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:07 pm no problem with these forthcoming restrictions, but if they stop school/kids sports I'll be raging

That's what the forthcoming restrictions will do.

Level 3 stops most sport, certainly kids.

yeah, I know thats likely .... but its stupid IMO

these kids are spending 6 hours a day in a small room together with 30 others, but cant get out in the fresh air for a runaround afterwards?

the protocols in place in my lads schools would put a pro club to shame .... let them play ffs - in the interests of their mental health as much as anything else

It's terrible. My young fellas GAA was due back for the first time this weekend. He must think we are gaslighting him at this stage

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:10 pm

camroc1 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:01 pm

anonymous_joe wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:42 pm

rfurlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:25 pm meanwhile .... "its a disgrace Joe" ... that people who were earning more on PUP than they would have in their part time jobs, should have their payments cut.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/a ... 38540.html

I think IBEC estimated that over 40% of people in receipt of PUP were better off than before the pandemic started ...... but its "cruel punishment" to taper the payments back ?

A large chunk of the population feel excluded from opportunity in Ireland.

It's pretty easy to succeed here if you're middle-class or above and go to a reasonable school, but if not, it's tough enough to make it here compared to a lot of European countries. Explains why certain sections of society are deeply resentful of the economic recovery. (And current situation.)

Suaad Ashleh says "hi".

yep .... its tough enough to make it here when you have a media-fed sense of entitlement, and you expect to reach the same levels of income and success as people who have more inherent drive or talent than you ..... like Syrian refugees bursting their balls to rebuild their lives

just to reiterate .... over 40% of the people who were in receipt of PUP, have essentially been in receipt of a pay rise during the pandemic ..... but they are somehow victims now?

I know there are structural issues holding people back, and that success is on many occasions down to a post code lottery of birth. However, left wing politicians decrying the fact that people are going back to their original, pre-covid levels of income is frankly, a joke.

MunsterMan!!!!! wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:24 pm We'll be moving into out new gaff in kildare from dublin in or around 8-11 october, I counting that as essiential.