RIP the internal combustion engine!

All things Rugby
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Woo hoo! The Tesla Model S has just won Motor Trend Car of the Year - backing up on the similar award from Automotive Magazine.

Image


The 11 judges were unanimous. The Model S was even compared to a Rolls Royce!
2013 Motor Trend Car of the Year: Tesla Model S
Shocking Winner: Proof Positive that America Can Still Make (Great) Things
By Angus MacKenzie | Photos By Andrew Yeadon, Motor Trend Staff | January, 2013 |


The 2013 Motor Trend Car of the Year is one of the quickest American four-doors ever built. It drives like a sports car, eager and agile and instantly responsive. But it's also as smoothly effortless as a Rolls-Royce, can carry almost as much stuff as a Chevy Equinox, and is more efficient than a Toyota Prius. Oh, and it'll sashay up to the valet at a luxury hotel like a supermodel working a Paris catwalk. By any measure, the Tesla Model S is a truly remarkable automobile, perhaps the most accomplished all-new luxury car since the original Lexus LS 400. That's why it's our 2013 Car of the Year.
...
Read more: http://www.motortrend.com/oftheyear/car ... z2C4CsHpYZ

MotorTrend video - 4m15s



:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:
User avatar
Fat Albert
Posts: 1223
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trantor

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Fat Albert »

Tesla Announce Delays To Production
Torque wrote:The letter to reservation holders covered the 60 kilowatt-hour model, the 40 kilowatt-hour model, cars with the standard (coil) suspension, and cars with the 2013 Red multi-coat paint.

The 60 kilowatt-hour models will begin manufacturing in January 2013, with deliveries beginning in January or February. The 40 kilowatt-hour models will begin manufacturing in March 2013, with deliveries beginning in March/April.

The delay of 60- and 40-kilowatt-hour models is to be expected because of the other delays, and the lessened 2012 Model S production target. The original target of 5000 Model S's in 2012 has been downgraded by Tesla's management to the range of 2,500-3,500 Model S's in 2012.
2500 * $80k = $200m hole in Tesla's cash flow, sound familiar?
User avatar
Fat Albert
Posts: 1223
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trantor

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Fat Albert »

Tesla Announce Price Rises And Replacement Battery Pack Prices
Elon's Fan Blog wrote:Now, Tesla Motors [NSDQ:TSLA] has released the details of the price increases on the different versions of the Model S all-electric luxury sport sedan.

The new prices are $59,900 for the base version with a 40-kilowatt-hour battery pack, $69,900 for the mid-range 60-kWh model, $79,900 for the top-end 85-kWh level, and $94,900 for the Performance model, which also uses the 85-kWh pack.
Cars for the people, eh Slowy?
EFB wrote:Tesla also released pricing for replacement battery packs, giving current and future owners a better sense of what it will cost to own their electric sport sedans over a decade or more.

The price of a 40 kWh pack is $8,000. Another $2,000 gets the 60 kWh pack, and the 85 kWh pack costs another $2,000 on top of that.
Tesla's warranty is 50,000 miles but does not cover 'bricked' battery packs, Tesla claim that 'bricking' is less likely on the 'S' than previous models
User avatar
Fat Albert
Posts: 1223
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trantor

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Fat Albert »

Slowy

There are 8,000 laptop batteries in one 85kwh Tesla pack, if they sell 20,000 units next year that could be 160,000,000 laptop batteries gone from the market! As a result, do you think that the consequence might be a distortion in the market and result in an effect on laptop battery prices?

I don't think you need to worry that too much mind, on Musk's past record Tesla will not get anywhere near the necessary 400 a week production, even if they could find the customers...
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, on Twitter wrote:Am happy to report that Tesla was narrowly cash flow positive last week. Continued improvement expected through year end.
:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:


So they have made it through the Valley of Death. A historic moment for transportation and the writing is now all over the wall for ICE vehicles.
towny
Posts: 19189
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by towny »

slow wing wrote:
Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, on Twitter wrote:Am happy to report that Tesla was narrowly cash flow positive last week. Continued improvement expected through year end.
:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:


So they have made it through the Valley of Death. A historic moment for transportation and the writing is now all over the wall for ICE vehicles.

Yeah, Ferrari are shitting themselves.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Cheers for the information, FA.

You mentioned the batteries. Ford has endorsed Tesla's Panasonic batteries as the best in the world and is using it themselves in their Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid.

Next year Panasonic will be mass producing new batteries with a 30% increase in energy storage over this year's batteries of the same volume. They are using a new negative electrode where silicon replaces the graphite. We can expect such incremental improvements to continue for lithium ion batteries. Once they are good enough, electric cars will dominate in all sectors.
towny
Posts: 19189
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:53 pm
Location: Perth

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by towny »

slow wing wrote:Cheers for the information, FA.

You mentioned the batteries. Ford has endorsed Tesla's Panasonic batteries as the best in the world and is using it themselves in their Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid.

Next year Panasonic will be mass producing new batteries with a 30% increase in energy storage over this year's batteries of the same volume. They are using a new negative electrode where silicon replaces the graphite. We can expect such incremental improvements to continue for lithium ion batteries. Once they are good enough, electric cars will dominate in all sectors.

Will renewables have the capacity to handle all of the current load and all of the tens of millions of cars in the world?

Or will cars be ultimately powered using coal?
Homer
Posts: 904
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Homer »

The Tesla Model S is looking like a very good car.

However, the uptake of all electrified vehicles is still painfully slow. The fact is that they still do not present as an attractive option to most consumers.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Have you had a chance to drive a Tesla Model S yet, Homer?


Tesla Motors is way out ahead of everyone else when it comes to electric cars. The existing big car companies seem to have too much inertia in ICE cars but it doesn't matter because Tesla is blazing the path that others will have to follow or else fall out of the market.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Reposting an interesting post from another thread...
MunsterMan!!!!! wrote:Actually we got a lend of one from a local garage, as part of our work, for two weeks so we each got it for 2/3 days. It was a Renault Fluence, the car we got wasn't for general sale it was just a garage car.

Pros: The way Renault have structured the battery rental is very good, basically you pay a subscription to Renault every month, depending on how many miles you do, this could vary from €150-300/month. So you don't buy the potential problems with batteries you do with other car manufacturers.

I do about 120-140km/day, basically if I was to get one I am spending about €300/month on Diesel it would cost me €200/month (including rental and charging(night rate)). To buy it initially, it is the same as the diesel/petrol equivalent.

Cons: Battery range was poor as I do 120-140/km day I have to recharge at work, but I think this is related to the fact that this car not only a garage car, the battery range is supposed to be 200km in reality more like 150/160km.

I know the Electric Ireland at the moment are installing the home charge point for free (think this is for the first 2000 or so) and the public charge points are free at the moment as they haven't worked out the charging structure, they will use yet. So now would be a good time to get them.

Overall driving experience, is very good, once you get over the eery silence at the start. It is actually quite nice, a colleague of mine suffer for severe travel sickness and he said it was great as you have less noise and vibration, which is a side benefit.

Would I get one in the future: Most definitely, and I am sure when I do buy again (I have a 09) battery technology will have improved and the infrastructure around the country will have drastically improved (charge points). I do think other facilities also need to be brought on board, like manufactures having their owner battery 'lockers' at filling station, and you could just pull up take out half your batteries bay and put in fully charged ones, something like that would really help to integrate them faster.
Homer
Posts: 904
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Homer »

slow wing wrote:Have you had a chance to drive a Tesla Model S yet, Homer?
No, and that is unlikely to change in the near future, unless we get one sent over for benchmarking purposes. I'd certainly like to drive one.
Tesla Motors is way out ahead of everyone else when it comes to electric cars. The existing big car companies seem to have too much inertia in ICE cars but it doesn't matter because Tesla is blazing the path that others will have to follow or else fall out of the market.
We'll see - the electrified market is still tiny, because the vehicles do not make a good enough case for purchase to most consumers.

The existing car manufacturers have 'too much' inertia in selling a range of cars that suit a wide range of customers around the world.
User avatar
DOB
Posts: 19116
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by DOB »

Saw my first Tesla S on the way to work this morning, license plate said "NO2FOSL," which I thought was stupid, but I guess we know the kind who was always going to be the early adopter of the tech.

It was booting along at 80mph and he didn't look like he was planning on stopping til Sacramento, so he mustn't have too much range anxiety.
bimboman
Posts: 67467
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by bimboman »

slow wing wrote:Have you had a chance to drive a Tesla Model S yet, Homer?


Tesla Motors is way out ahead of everyone else when it comes to electric cars. The existing big car companies seem to have too much inertia in ICE cars but it doesn't matter because Tesla is blazing the path that others will have to follow or else fall out of the market.

If Tesla even get close to 100,000 units a year one of the big players will blow them out of the water in two years. This will not happen until there is a real infrastructure for recharging on Motorways/trunk roads and general acceptance that they will become mainstream.

SW , how long will it be before Tesla turn a profit ?
User avatar
Richard D. James
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Richard D. James »

bimboman wrote:
slow wing wrote:Have you had a chance to drive a Tesla Model S yet, Homer?


Tesla Motors is way out ahead of everyone else when it comes to electric cars. The existing big car companies seem to have too much inertia in ICE cars but it doesn't matter because Tesla is blazing the path that others will have to follow or else fall out of the market.

If Tesla even get close to 100,000 units a year one of the big players will blow them out of the water in two years. This will not happen until there is a real infrastructure for recharging on Motorways/trunk roads and general acceptance that they will become mainstream.

SW , how long will it be before Tesla turn a profit ?
Doesn't Tesla owns a lot of the tech that the big players are using in their own vehicles, so I would imagine the more batteries the big players put in their cars the more royalties Tesla will get?

I'm sure Slow WIng will know.

Anyway I've never understood the negativity surrounding this car from some quarters. Don't people want more choice in the car market? I guess your politics has a lot to do with it unfortunately.
User avatar
Bill
Posts: 6408
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Bill »

I think the bog standard electric golf buggy would do most urban dwellers as their 2nd car right now

You can easily get 4 hours driving out of them - perfectly adequate for the vast majority of little trips made by the average 2nd car

Nuclear power stations - electric cars - perfect combo
bimboman
Posts: 67467
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by bimboman »

Richard D. James wrote:
bimboman wrote:
slow wing wrote:Have you had a chance to drive a Tesla Model S yet, Homer?


Tesla Motors is way out ahead of everyone else when it comes to electric cars. The existing big car companies seem to have too much inertia in ICE cars but it doesn't matter because Tesla is blazing the path that others will have to follow or else fall out of the market.

If Tesla even get close to 100,000 units a year one of the big players will blow them out of the water in two years. This will not happen until there is a real infrastructure for recharging on Motorways/trunk roads and general acceptance that they will become mainstream.

SW , how long will it be before Tesla turn a profit ?
Doesn't Tesla owns a lot of the tech that the big players are using in their own vehicles, so I would imagine the more batteries the big players put in their cars the more royalties Tesla will get?

I'm sure Slow WIng will know.

Anyway I've never understood the negativity surrounding this car from some quarters. Don't people want more choice in the car market? I guess your politics has a lot to do with it unfortunately.

Nothing I have said is a negative, I said that things will happen as and when the infratsructure is really there and that consumers makea choice that supports an electric car. They are not really in the game right now. And as for Tech BMW , Mercedes and the big US guys will blow patents and tech the minute they feel they can make any part of profit or have a share in a meaningful market. At the moment Tesla are a Hobby firm.
User avatar
Richard D. James
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Richard D. James »

bimboman wrote:
Richard D. James wrote:
bimboman wrote:
slow wing wrote:Have you had a chance to drive a Tesla Model S yet, Homer?


Tesla Motors is way out ahead of everyone else when it comes to electric cars. The existing big car companies seem to have too much inertia in ICE cars but it doesn't matter because Tesla is blazing the path that others will have to follow or else fall out of the market.

If Tesla even get close to 100,000 units a year one of the big players will blow them out of the water in two years. This will not happen until there is a real infrastructure for recharging on Motorways/trunk roads and general acceptance that they will become mainstream.

SW , how long will it be before Tesla turn a profit ?
Doesn't Tesla owns a lot of the tech that the big players are using in their own vehicles, so I would imagine the more batteries the big players put in their cars the more royalties Tesla will get?

I'm sure Slow WIng will know.

Anyway I've never understood the negativity surrounding this car from some quarters. Don't people want more choice in the car market? I guess your politics has a lot to do with it unfortunately.

Nothing I have said is a negative, I said that things will happen as and when the infratsructure is really there and that consumers makea choice that supports an electric car. They are not really in the game right now. And as for Tech BMW , Mercedes and the big US guys will blow patents and tech the minute they feel they can make any part of profit or have a share in a meaningful market. At the moment Tesla are a Hobby firm.
oh that last bit wasn't directed at you, sorry. More about post in the rest of this thread.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Some good issues being raised above, or re-raised...

towny wrote:Yeah, Ferrari are shitting themselves.
Yep. Ferrari’s Next Flagship Will Be a 900HP Hybrid - as was already discussed on page 8.




bimboman wrote:SW , how long will it be before Tesla turn a profit ?
They already are turning a profit - as posted earlier on this page.




Richard D. James wrote:Doesn't Tesla owns a lot of the tech that the big players are using in their own vehicles, so I would imagine the more batteries the big players put in their cars the more royalties Tesla will get? ...
Yes, Tesla partnered with Toyota in doing the electric drive train for the new Toyota RAV4 EV; new review here: In Detail: Toyota RAV4 EV

Germany's Daimler AG, maker of Mercedes, has a several percent ownership of Tesla Motors. (By now, I think it is a little less than 6%.) Tesla is also looking to supply the entire electric drive train for a future Mercedes B-Class E-Cell fully electric car.
Mercedes reportedly scraps hybrid plan for B-Class E-Cell Plus EV, going all-in on electrons with Tesla


Tesla further has literally hundreds of patents for its technologies. They themselves build a bigger fraction of the component parts for each of their cars than is the case for any of the big companies.


All-in-all, Tesla have built themselves into a very strong position indeed.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

This is a compelling documentary if you have any interest at all in electric cars...

Tesla Model S - Supercars 2011 - YouTube, 45m11s.

Despite the title, it is a 2012 production and is more the company equivalent of an authorised biography of Tesla Motors, or even a co-authored autobiography. It is by National Geographic and they have clearly been given an unprecedented level of access to both the key players and the technology inside the factory. They have done a fine job as well!
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

I'm disappointed that I wrote to Tesla (well, emailed) asking about delivery dates, and they didn't respond.

But despite all the naysayers, Tesla has to be the best investment in the automotive world. They've built a game changer with no obvious disadvantages. The Model X is even more convincing.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Groucho, so are you going to order one?!

But Aussies are already placing reservations for the Model S and the Model X...
Australia
S[ignature Model S] 38 (August 18, 2012)
P[roduction version Model S] 30 (July 13, 2012)
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthre ... tion-Tally


Is this the email address you used?
Australia@teslamotors.com

You can also phone them. They have an office in Sydney.
http://www.teslamotors.com/sydney
Tesla Motors Australia Pty Ltd
(02) 9666 3424
U9/ 1 Exell St
Banksmeadow NSW 2019


Or you can reserve straight away...
https://www.teslamotors.com/en_AU/own#/model-s

It says delivery of the Model S will be Winter 2013 (though I think that is optimistic), or in 2014 for the Model X.
I read somewhere that the price in Aussie is a lot more than in the US unfortunately, with all the duties and taxes they add on.

This is what they were saying on 5 November 2012...
Local pricing and specifications for the Model S are still to be confirmed, although Tesla Australia's Jay McCormack has confirmed an early 2013 launch, with deliveries to begin mid-year.
Link
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

I only just found this btw:
Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/

It is both an excellent resource and an excellent time waster.

This is their uptodate reservations tally estimate, for example...
Model s Net Total: 18,718 - December 25, 2012*
Model X Gross Total: 2,635 - December 20, 2012
The sum is 21,353 total reservations to be filled! :thumbup:
User avatar
Floppykid
Posts: 30821
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: SOB>Todd

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Floppykid »

Bill wrote:I think the bog standard electric golf buggy would do most urban dwellers as their 2nd car right now

You can easily get 4 hours driving out of them - perfectly adequate for the vast majority of little trips made by the average 2nd car

Nuclear power stations - electric cars - perfect combo
Image
merlin the happy pig
Posts: 1869
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by merlin the happy pig »

towny wrote:
slow wing wrote:Cheers for the information, FA.

You mentioned the batteries. Ford has endorsed Tesla's Panasonic batteries as the best in the world and is using it themselves in their Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid.

Next year Panasonic will be mass producing new batteries with a 30% increase in energy storage over this year's batteries of the same volume. They are using a new negative electrode where silicon replaces the graphite. We can expect such incremental improvements to continue for lithium ion batteries. Once they are good enough, electric cars will dominate in all sectors.

Will renewables have the capacity to handle all of the current load and all of the tens of millions of cars in the world?

Or will cars be ultimately powered using coal?
Not as much of a problem as you might think because power stations far exceed the efficiency of ICE's.
Up to 60% if you include the use of waste heat for other industry.
In a real ICE the percentage would be probably be 25% if you don't include transmission losses as they are common to all drivetrains.

The charge/discharge cycle efficiency of batteries means that you are still way better off using electrics if efficiency of non-renewables is your focus.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Fat Albert wrote:Slowy

There are 8,000 laptop batteries in one 85kwh Tesla pack, if they sell 20,000 units next year that could be 160,000,000 laptop batteries gone from the market! As a result, do you think that the consequence might be a distortion in the market and result in an effect on laptop battery prices?

I don't think you need to worry that too much mind, on Musk's past record Tesla will not get anywhere near the necessary 400 a week production, even if they could find the customers...
FA, that would be roughly a three percent increase in Li-ion battery cells over the current 4.6 billion units. ...
Global Li-ion Cell Shipments to Increase 9% in 2013: IEK-ITIS
2012/12/03
Taipei, Dec. 3, 2012 (CENS)--Global shipments of lithium-ion battery cells are estimated to reach 4.59 billion units, and the volume is expected to continue to rise 9% in 2013 with annual production value increasing 6% to US$12 billion, according to the Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center IEK-ITIS (Industry & Technology Intelligence Services) in Taiwan.

H.L. Lee, material analyst at IEK, pointed out that the cold global economy in the second and third quarters led to stagnated 3C (computer, communication, and consumer electronics) product sales, forcing most notebook PC assemblers to reduce shipment goals. So, IEK-ITIS has reduced its li-ion cell shipment forecast in 2012 from an annual growth of 12% to 9%. ...
Link

Other electric car manufacturers will bring that up as well. So in 2013 electric cars will be a significant, but not yet dominant, part of the demand for lithium-ion battery cells.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

That same article provides a good idea of what Tesla Motors pay for their battery cells, and they are already relatively affordable! Tesla uses something like these Panasonic 18650 3.7v 3100mah cells:
Image
...the weak demand from the 3C industry drove the prices of 18650 cylindrical li-ion cells to US$0.12-US$0.2/Wh (watt hour), while the prices for soft-pack cells (adopted mainly in ultrabooks or tablet PCs) remained at about US$0.5/Wh.
That's $120-$200/kWh, of course. Tesla will probably be around the low end of that due to its scale, although its cell is likely to have its own proprietary specifications. So, $120/kWh x 60 kWh = $7,200 is probably around what Tesla pay for the battery cells for their mid-range Model S... 60-kWh Tesla Model S Has 208 Mile Range.

Let's complete the thought. For a smaller car, that range might go up to 300 miles ~ 500 km. Also, according to Elon Musk, battery prices are falling at 10-15% per year. So in 3 years time, we could have a mass production electric car with a range comparable to ICE cars, with battery cells costing the manufacturer ~$5000 and, consequently, the car having a sticker price in the $30,000 range. Aka, theTesla Model T!
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

P.S. $30,000 is bang on the average price for a car or light truck in the US market, so the Tesla Model T will be a true mainstream car. After purchase, the running costs for an electric car will be a fraction of those for an ICE car. Resale prices will also be depressed for the dying technology. Why would anyone still buy the latter?
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Meanwhile, the 'mainstream' car companies play catch-up. Next month in Japan, Mitsubishi will release what it is calling its “most important vehicle sold in decades”: the 2014 (sic) Mitsubishi Outlander plug-in hybrid crossover...

Image

It features “motor à trois”: two independent electric motors as well as a 2.0L four-cylinder MIVEC petrol-powered engine... :-o
The 12kWH lithium–ion battery pack gives a 37 mile battery-only range and can be fast-charged to 80% in 30 minutes.
http://www.automedia.com/Blog/post/Mits ... -Soon.aspx



This will presumably be somewhat cheaper than the all-electric Tesla Model X but so much complexity in order to keep the ICE!
User avatar
Geek
Posts: 422
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:02 pm

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Geek »

merlin the happy pig wrote:
towny wrote:
slow wing wrote:Cheers for the information, FA.

You mentioned the batteries. Ford has endorsed Tesla's Panasonic batteries as the best in the world and is using it themselves in their Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid.

Next year Panasonic will be mass producing new batteries with a 30% increase in energy storage over this year's batteries of the same volume. They are using a new negative electrode where silicon replaces the graphite. We can expect such incremental improvements to continue for lithium ion batteries. Once they are good enough, electric cars will dominate in all sectors.

Will renewables have the capacity to handle all of the current load and all of the tens of millions of cars in the world?

Or will cars be ultimately powered using coal?
Not as much of a problem as you might think because power stations far exceed the efficiency of ICE's.
Up to 60% if you include the use of waste heat for other industry.
In a real ICE the percentage would be probably be 25% if you don't include transmission losses as they are common to all drivetrains.

The charge/discharge cycle efficiency of batteries means that you are still way better off using electrics if efficiency of non-renewables is your focus.
This is a dishonest post. The efficiencies of gas turbines and engines are very comparable (in fact engines should be theoretically more efficient). I worked a new build of CHP gas stations for E.On a few years ago and am pretty familiar with the hype and the reality. Utilizing the waste heat does raise the overall efficiency but not anywhere near 60%. The particular stations we were building were using the heat to melt LNG (Liquid natural gas) which was the fuel for the station. A clever move, but also part of the energy requirement of the process, anyway.

BTW I've been reading for years now about the issues with Lithium supply. It's not a very environmentally friendly process to extract, and there have been very real fears of supply outstripping demand for a while now. Increasing demand by 9% year on year is not really a positive in my view.
User avatar
guy smiley
Posts: 33220
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: in transit

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by guy smiley »

link

Daimler, Ford and Nissan plan to develop and launch affordable fuel-cell vehicles within five years, in the latest sign of increasing cooperation among automakers to meet ever-tighter global emissions rules.

Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler, whose hydrogen-powered car technologies are the most advanced but still prohibitively expensive, will pool investment with its Japanese and US partners.

The program aims to cut the technology's costs and launch the world's first fuel-cell vehicles for the mass market in 2017, the companies said.

"We are firing the starting gun with this deal," Daimler development chief Thomas Weber told reporters in Nabern, home to the company's fuel-cell program. Combined sales volumes for the new models would reach six figures, he predicted.

By spreading development costs - and using Ford and Nissan's sales volumes to help cover them - Daimler is giving up some of its lead on the technology for faster implementation and a stronger business model.

The three-way deal follows a similar announcement by Toyota and BMW, which outlined plans last week to launch fuel-cell vehicles in about 2020.

Pure-electric cars are struggling to gain a foothold even in markets where they get generous subsidies, so manufacturers are looking for other ways to meet emissions limits in China, Europe and the United States.

Hybrid vehicles, which combine a combustion engine with an electric motor and rechargeable battery, are gaining ground but will struggle to deliver the fuel efficiency needed to meet the next wave of regulations coming into force in 2020-25.

Fuel-cell cars, in common with rechargeable models such as Nissan's Leaf, are propelled by electric motors. But instead of a battery, a "stack" of cells combines hydrogen with oxygen from the air to generate the electricity.

This means fuel-cell cars largely avoid the "range anxiety" weighing on electric cars. They can fill up in minutes at a hydrogen pump and drive several times the typical 160-kilometre range of a battery car, which needs anything from 30 minutes to eight hours to recharge.

The three carmakers said their plan sent a signal to suppliers, governments and broader industry to go ahead with infrastructure investment in hydrogen filling stations.

Keen to get the ball rolling in its home market, Daimler has joined with industrial gas producer Linde to install 20 hydrogen filling stations in Germany.

Fuel cells face a chicken-and-egg problem that has also blighted electric cars: buyers remain wary until a refuelling network is rolled out, but infrastructure investors are waiting for the vehicles to become widespread first.

Current manufacturing costs for the vehicles themselves are still more than twice those of equivalent lithium-ion battery models - but may come down much faster, some analysts say.

"Lithium-ion batteries are not the silver bullet everyone thought - just look at Boeing and the Dreamliner," said IHS Automotive analyst Christoph Stuermer, referring to electrical problems that have grounded the US aircraft manufacturer’s flagship jet.

"People are realising they can't put all their eggs in one basket," he said.

South Korean group Hyundai has said it expects to halve production costs for fuel-cell cars to 50 million won ($46,000).

Monday's announcement upgrades Daimler's existing fuel-cell research venture with Ford and brings in Nissan. The German luxury carmaker entered a broad-based strategic alliance with Nissan and its French affiliate Renault in 2010.

While Mercedes has been at the forefront of fuel-cell research, German rival BMW had initially backed a rival liquid hydrogen technology. Under last week's deal, BMW gains access to Toyota's fuel cells in exchange for some of its own carbon-fibre know-how.

General Motors Co has made more progress on fuel cells than Daimler or Toyota, GM Chief Executive Dan Akerson said on Monday, but the US carmaker is holding back until refuelling networks are rolled out and the technology is less costly.

"None of them are as far along as we are," Akerson told reporters after announcing a $600 million investment in GM's Kansas City, Kansas, assembly plant. "But we're not going to press this thing into the marketplace before the infrastructure is ready."

Hyundai is also betting on fuel cells to leapfrog battery technology and showed hydrogen-powered production models at last September's Paris auto show.

As Daimler and many peers are increasingly convinced, hydrogen cars now offer "the greatest potential for emission-free driving," Weber said.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Makes sense, Guy, for everyone with a hydrogen refilling station in their garage.


Oh yeah, and if they can also bring down the price of the fuel cells by a large factor. And make them more durable and reliable.


Ah, I forgot, and when they have a network of hydrogen refilling stations on the highway.


And perhaps also if there was a practical way to make hydrogen cheaply and in a sustainable way.


Also, if it wasn't so difficult to store the leaky stuff in a portable high-pressure container.




Maybe one or two teething issues with that technology then. If only there was a way, instead of using a fuel cell to create electricity, to store the electricity and use it directly...
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

2012 Tesla Model S Performance vs 2012 Mercedes-Benz E63 BiTurbo Non-PP 0-110 MPH - YouTube

Too easy? How about this then...
Video: Tesla Model S Defeats Dodge Viper SRT10 to Become Fastest Electric car


The start is carnage, with the electric car getting full torque immediately. That raises the obvious question, which would initially be quicker away from the lights: a Bugatti Veyron or a Tesla Model S?
MacGyver
Posts: 35
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by MacGyver »

Yeah Guy, only one type of advancement is the right one. Spreading your eggs across multiple baskets is silly. All those PhDs and R&D types pouring money into alternative locomotive technologies are grade A thickos. :roll:
User avatar
deadduck
Posts: 6173
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Vandean Coast

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by deadduck »

slow wing wrote:Makes sense, Guy, for everyone with a hydrogen refilling station in their garage.


Oh yeah, and if they can also bring down the price of the fuel cells by a large factor. And make them more durable and reliable.


Ah, I forgot, and when they have a network of hydrogen refilling stations on the highway.


And perhaps also if there was a practical way to make hydrogen cheaply and in a sustainable way.


Also, if it wasn't so difficult to store the leaky stuff in a portable high-pressure container.




Maybe one or two teething issues with that technology then. If only there was a way, instead of using a fuel cell to create electricity, to store the electricity and use it directly...

Have you thought about the consequences to the grid of everyone coming home from work at 5 pm and plugging in their cars to charge? Or everyone arriving at work at 8:30 am and plugging in their cars? There are already usage peaks between 5 and 9 pm and you would expect those to at least double. Where does that power come from?

That may be the failing of electric vehicles, it will require cooperation with investment in the grid capacity specifically for for those peak charge times. It's the kind of investment that will preclude the mainstream use of electric cars, but no one is going to invest that money unless electric cars become mainstream. Catch-22, someone is going to have to risk a white elephant.


As for making hydrogen, it's cheap and sustainable already if you just whack an electrolysis plant onto the back of a solar power plant. I still think it's a bit of a goose chase anyhow, and would rather see some exploration of the potential of the methanol fuel cell.
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

slow wing wrote:2012 Tesla Model S Performance vs 2012 Mercedes-Benz E63 BiTurbo Non-PP 0-110 MPH - YouTube

Too easy? How about this then...
Video: Tesla Model S Defeats Dodge Viper SRT10 to Become Fastest Electric car


The start is carnage, with the electric car getting full torque immediately. That raises the obvious question, which would initially be quicker away from the lights: a Bugatti Veyron or a Tesla Model S?
That's extremely impressive, but 12.371 is pretty slow time to beat a Viper, which clearly had traction issues.

Strangely the Veyron isn't so fast off the line, because of its intrusive torque-limiting traction control. I think the Tesla would whoop its ass over 100m - then get trounced.
User avatar
MungoMan
Posts: 13593
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Coalfalls

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by MungoMan »

deadduck wrote:
slow wing wrote:Makes sense, Guy, for everyone with a hydrogen refilling station in their garage.


Oh yeah, and if they can also bring down the price of the fuel cells by a large factor. And make them more durable and reliable.


Ah, I forgot, and when they have a network of hydrogen refilling stations on the highway.


And perhaps also if there was a practical way to make hydrogen cheaply and in a sustainable way.


Also, if it wasn't so difficult to store the leaky stuff in a portable high-pressure container.




Maybe one or two teething issues with that technology then. If only there was a way, instead of using a fuel cell to create electricity, to store the electricity and use it directly...

Have you thought about the consequences to the grid of everyone coming home from work at 5 pm and plugging in their cars to charge? Or everyone arriving at work at 8:30 am and plugging in their cars? There are already usage peaks between 5 and 9 pm and you would expect those to at least double. Where does that power come from?

That may be the failing of electric vehicles, it will require cooperation with investment in the grid capacity specifically for for those peak charge times. It's the kind of investment that will preclude the mainstream use of electric cars, but no one is going to invest that money unless electric cars become mainstream. Catch-22, someone is going to have to risk a white elephant.
The Australian Energy Regulator will make the distribution determination for NSW in mid-2014 and for Qld, Vic and SA in mid-2015. Increases in network charges for the upcoming 5-year regulatory period may not be as large as in the last, but they will still lead to retail price increases certain to be as popular as genital warts. And this will be, one assumes, in the absence of the big hikes in estimated capex for the network augmentation needed to support large-scale uptake of EVs.

Given the State and Territory energy ministers are heartily sick of copping flak over power price rises, given network 'gold-plating' has become a folk devil, given the mainland NEM states will have a planned capex program unable to support large-scale EC uptake for at at least the next 6 or so years, the game in Oz will be quite resistant to change. And if/when the change happens, User Pays is likely to be front and centre as the operative principle for cost-reflective EV network tariffs.
User avatar
deadduck
Posts: 6173
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Vandean Coast

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by deadduck »

Perhaps a system similar to diesel road user charges should be applied to electric vehicles, a portion of which will go to expanding network capacity and a portion of which will replace the fuel taxes they're not paying.
merlin the happy pig
Posts: 1869
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by merlin the happy pig »

towny wrote:
slow wing wrote:Cheers for the information, FA.

You mentioned the batteries. Ford has endorsed Tesla's Panasonic batteries as the best in the world and is using it themselves in their Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid.

Next year Panasonic will be mass producing new batteries with a 30% increase in energy storage over this year's batteries of the same volume. They are using a new negative electrode where silicon replaces the graphite. We can expect such incremental improvements to continue for lithium ion batteries. Once they are good enough, electric cars will dominate in all sectors.

Will renewables have the capacity to handle all of the current load and all of the tens of millions of cars in the world?

Or will cars be ultimately powered using coal?
I doubt it because as ICE engunes are replaced, generators will burn oil more efficiently and cleanly than can be done in a vehicle.
So overall it should lead to less fossil fuel use per km.

Much work to be done on battery production, and battery lifetme, to reduce energy cost of the total life cycle.
User avatar
MungoMan
Posts: 13593
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Coalfalls

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by MungoMan »

deadduck wrote:Perhaps a system similar to diesel road user charges should be applied to electric vehicles, a portion of which will go to expanding network capacity and a portion of which will replace the fuel taxes they're not paying.
Well, yes - the Commonwealth Government could, for example, impose a levy on imported EVs to that end. But neither side of Oz politics has much appetite for such measures these days, and it would be a monumental arse-pain disbursing the money to a mix of private sector and government-owned electricity distributors.

Cost-reflective network tariffs for those who recharge their EVs at home would allow the policy-makers and regulators to retain their market economy credibility. A good reason to favour this as the outcome.
Post Reply