RIP the internal combustion engine!

All things Rugby
Post Reply
User avatar
Geek
Posts: 422
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:02 pm

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Geek »

merlin the happy pig wrote:I really do think the real revolution in personal transport is going to occur in the transportation system rather than propulsion.

See this analysis by KPMG.
https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndIns ... lution.pdf

Imagine if roads were a good analog of computer networks where packets of information are automatically routed via an optimal route, where they are coordinated to avoid collisions.
Cars will very soon be capable of being automatically controlled entities which operate cooperatively to drastically improve the efficiency of roading.

Obvious and less obvious benefits:
No road deaths.
No insurance.
No traffic police
no traffic lights, few roundabouts, minimal road signage.
Vastly reduced new road building (expect to more than double existing road capacity)
Many fewer car parks because many will subscribe to a car service where cars are scheduled on demand.
No driving jobs.
No need for buses and trains.
Elderly regain their mobility.
Shag the missus on the way to work while the car drives itself.

Vastly improved fuel economy from:
No heavy crash protection.
Less requirement for fast acceleration braking therefore smaller engines, lighter chassis.
Car to network communication means automated ride sharing is an option.

In short the car of the future may well be electric, but compared to the coming revolution in automation it's effects are small scale
This has been a dream for a while now and I believe will remain one for the foreseeable future. The big issue for autopilot cars are all the pedestrians around. The current road system would have to be completely retooled (in line with the rail network) to keep cars and pedestrians completely separate. Frankly I don't see this kind of investment in changing all of our roads happening any time soon. Eventually though I have no doubt that it will happen. Personally I see it as a sad thing as it will represent an end to the kind of freedom which the car has represented to many people.
merlin the happy pig
Posts: 1869
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by merlin the happy pig »

Geek wrote:
merlin the happy pig wrote:I really do think the real revolution in personal transport is going to occur in the transportation system rather than propulsion.

See this analysis by KPMG.
https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndIns ... lution.pdf

Imagine if roads were a good analog of computer networks where packets of information are automatically routed via an optimal route, where they are coordinated to avoid collisions.
Cars will very soon be capable of being automatically controlled entities which operate cooperatively to drastically improve the efficiency of roading.

Obvious and less obvious benefits:
No road deaths.
No insurance.
No traffic police
no traffic lights, few roundabouts, minimal road signage.
Vastly reduced new road building (expect to more than double existing road capacity)
Many fewer car parks because many will subscribe to a car service where cars are scheduled on demand.
No driving jobs.
No need for buses and trains.
Elderly regain their mobility.
Shag the missus on the way to work while the car drives itself.

Vastly improved fuel economy from:
No heavy crash protection.
Less requirement for fast acceleration braking therefore smaller engines, lighter chassis.
Car to network communication means automated ride sharing is an option.

In short the car of the future may well be electric, but compared to the coming revolution in automation it's effects are small scale
This has been a dream for a while now and I believe will remain one for the foreseeable future. The big issue for autopilot cars are all the pedestrians around. The current road system would have to be completely retooled (in line with the rail network) to keep cars and pedestrians completely separate. Frankly I don't see this kind of investment in changing all of our roads happening any time soon. Eventually though I have no doubt that it will happen. Personally I see it as a sad thing as it will represent an end to the kind of freedom which the car has represented to many people.
Many brighter minds believe it is just around the corner.
Current technology is already quite capable of avoiding pedestrian and requires no infrastructure.

As for loss of freedom, you will actually gain freedom, you can do something better than wasting 90 minutes of your day piloting a vehicle in rush hour traffic.

The small consolation of saving 1 million lives per annum should also be considered.
User avatar
Geek
Posts: 422
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:02 pm

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Geek »

merlin the happy pig wrote:
Geek wrote:
merlin the happy pig wrote:I really do think the real revolution in personal transport is going to occur in the transportation system rather than propulsion.

See this analysis by KPMG.
https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndIns ... lution.pdf

Imagine if roads were a good analog of computer networks where packets of information are automatically routed via an optimal route, where they are coordinated to avoid collisions.
Cars will very soon be capable of being automatically controlled entities which operate cooperatively to drastically improve the efficiency of roading.

Obvious and less obvious benefits:
No road deaths.
No insurance.
No traffic police
no traffic lights, few roundabouts, minimal road signage.
Vastly reduced new road building (expect to more than double existing road capacity)
Many fewer car parks because many will subscribe to a car service where cars are scheduled on demand.
No driving jobs.
No need for buses and trains.
Elderly regain their mobility.
Shag the missus on the way to work while the car drives itself.

Vastly improved fuel economy from:
No heavy crash protection.
Less requirement for fast acceleration braking therefore smaller engines, lighter chassis.
Car to network communication means automated ride sharing is an option.

In short the car of the future may well be electric, but compared to the coming revolution in automation it's effects are small scale
This has been a dream for a while now and I believe will remain one for the foreseeable future. The big issue for autopilot cars are all the pedestrians around. The current road system would have to be completely retooled (in line with the rail network) to keep cars and pedestrians completely separate. Frankly I don't see this kind of investment in changing all of our roads happening any time soon. Eventually though I have no doubt that it will happen. Personally I see it as a sad thing as it will represent an end to the kind of freedom which the car has represented to many people.
Many brighter minds believe it is just around the corner.
Current technology is already quite capable of avoiding pedestrian and requires no infrastructure.

As for loss of freedom, you will actually gain freedom, you can do something better than wasting 90 minutes of your day piloting a vehicle in rush hour traffic.

The small consolation of saving 1 million lives per annum should also be considered.
It would be nice to believe you are right but I don't think you are. The ability to automatically drive a car and avoid randomly moving objects is extremely difficult to accomplish. There are various robotics programs aimed precisely in this area and they are currently limited to very slow speeds and very small operating distances. It is certainly not ready for primetime and won't be for many years yet.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

merlin the happy pig
Posts: 1869
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by merlin the happy pig »

Geek wrote:
merlin the happy pig wrote:
Geek wrote:
merlin the happy pig wrote:I really do think the real revolution in personal transport is going to occur in the transportation system rather than propulsion.

See this analysis by KPMG.
https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndIns ... lution.pdf

Imagine if roads were a good analog of computer networks where packets of information are automatically routed via an optimal route, where they are coordinated to avoid collisions.
Cars will very soon be capable of being automatically controlled entities which operate cooperatively to drastically improve the efficiency of roading.

Obvious and less obvious benefits:
No road deaths.
No insurance.
No traffic police
no traffic lights, few roundabouts, minimal road signage.
Vastly reduced new road building (expect to more than double existing road capacity)
Many fewer car parks because many will subscribe to a car service where cars are scheduled on demand.
No driving jobs.
No need for buses and trains.
Elderly regain their mobility.
Shag the missus on the way to work while the car drives itself.

Vastly improved fuel economy from:
No heavy crash protection.
Less requirement for fast acceleration braking therefore smaller engines, lighter chassis.
Car to network communication means automated ride sharing is an option.

In short the car of the future may well be electric, but compared to the coming revolution in automation it's effects are small scale
This has been a dream for a while now and I believe will remain one for the foreseeable future. The big issue for autopilot cars are all the pedestrians around. The current road system would have to be completely retooled (in line with the rail network) to keep cars and pedestrians completely separate. Frankly I don't see this kind of investment in changing all of our roads happening any time soon. Eventually though I have no doubt that it will happen. Personally I see it as a sad thing as it will represent an end to the kind of freedom which the car has represented to many people.
Many brighter minds believe it is just around the corner.
Current technology is already quite capable of avoiding pedestrian and requires no infrastructure.

As for loss of freedom, you will actually gain freedom, you can do something better than wasting 90 minutes of your day piloting a vehicle in rush hour traffic.

The small consolation of saving 1 million lives per annum should also be considered.
It would be nice to believe you are right but I don't think you are. The ability to automatically drive a car and avoid randomly moving objects is extremely difficult to accomplish. There are various robotics programs aimed precisely in this area and they are currently limited to very slow speeds and very small operating distances. It is certainly not ready for primetime and won't be for many years yet.
The google driverless car use only LIDAR and hs driven 300,000km in normal traffic with no incidents.
(except the crash when the human occupant was in charge)
The environment is far from random, especially as it will become less so once most vehicles are automated. In the interim they can run automated on bus lanes and manual elsewhere unil they prove their reliability.

The task is not anywhere near requiring general intelligence, avoiding pedestrians and other vehicles is not really that hard.
They will also have access to information that humans don't. Other cars can transmit hazard data almost instantly, including pedestrians, potholes, crashes, snow an ice.

But don't take my word for it, read the article.

It also doesn't need to be perfect, only a lot better than human drivers which in truth isn't asking a lot.

The only downside I can see is an end to autodarwination of a few westies.
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

September Plug-In Electric Car Sales Surge, As Tesla Sells 200 (Or So)
Even without confirmed Tesla numbers, plug-in sales in September totaled 5,539 cars. That gives last month the highest total since modern electric cars went on sale in December 2010.

The Chevrolet Volt continued its recent strong sales, with 2,851 Volts delivered in September.
Notably:
:arrow: sales of the Chevy Volt have taken off - it is currently about half of the US plug-in market
:arrow: 5,539 plug-in cars represents about 0.5% of the total US car market. This was reached ahead of the pace needed for my takeover prediction in the OP, and first made in December 2006 - which had 0.5% reached in February 2013, as was discussed on page 7.

Steady progress... :thumbup:
User avatar
Fat Albert
Posts: 1223
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trantor

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Fat Albert »

Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles

Journal Of Industrial Ecology, October 2012, DOI: 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00532.x

Troy R. Hawkins, Bhawna Singh, Guillaume Majeau-Bettez, Anders Hammer Strømman
Abstract wrote:We develop and provide a transparent life cycle inventory of conventional and electric vehicles and apply our inventory to assess conventional and EVs over a range of impact categories. We find that EVs powered by the present European electricity mix offer a 10% to 24% decrease in global warming potential (GWP) relative to conventional diesel or gasoline vehicles assuming lifetimes of 150,000 km. However, EVs exhibit the potential for significant increases in human toxicity, freshwater eco-toxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and metal depletion impacts, largely emanating from the vehicle supply chain. Results are sensitive to assumptions regarding electricity source, use phase energy consumption, vehicle lifetime, and battery replacement schedules. Because production impacts are more significant for EVs than conventional vehicles, assuming a vehicle lifetime of 200,000 km exaggerates the GWP benefits of EVs to 27% to 29% relative to gasoline vehicles or 17% to 20% relative to diesel. An assumption of 100,000 km decreases the benefit of EVs to 9% to 14% with respect to gasoline vehicles and results in impacts indistinguishable from those of a diesel vehicle.
User avatar
Fat Albert
Posts: 1223
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trantor

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Fat Albert »

Fat Albert wrote:GM is losing up to $49k On Every Chevvy Volt Sold

Is this astonishing headline from some right wing, conservative, oil funding conspiracy? Nope, its from Reuters!!!
Nearly two years after the introduction of the path-breaking plug-in hybrid, GM is still losing as much as $49,000 on each Volt it builds, according to estimates provided to Reuters by industry analysts and manufacturing experts. GM on Monday issued a statement disputing the estimates.

Cheap Volt lease offers meant to drive more customers to Chevy showrooms this summer may have pushed that loss even higher. There are some Americans paying just $5,050 to drive around for two years in a vehicle that cost as much as $89,000 to produce.
2,851 Volts each losing GM up to $49k, that's a loss of up to $139,699,000... In September alone...

Apparently in ecofundieland this represents 'progress' towards sustainable development
User avatar
Fat Albert
Posts: 1223
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trantor

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Fat Albert »

Saward wrote:Paris was the location for the biennial Mondial de l’Automobile show at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre. This is one of the biggest car shows in the world and in 2010 attracted an impressive 1.2 million visitors.

However, it is fair to say that the mood in Paris is anything by optimistic for the mainstream automobile companies. New car sales in Europe are at a 17-year low and even some of the big premium brands are beginning to feel the heat, while the big mainstream companies such as Renault, Peugeot and Fiat are struggling. The French brands in particular are not in a happy place. Last year France produced 2.2 million cars, compared to 3.5 million back in 2005. The workforce is 30 percent smaller than it was 10 years ago.

The one trend that everyone seems to agree on is that the focus of the industry has switched away from producing electric vehicles and has moved towards cost-effective, real-world, fuel-saving cars. Aside from Renault’s Zoe and a Mercedes SLS AMG EV concept car there was little of interest in the electric car sphere with even Lexus looking at more efficient conventional machinery. Volkswagen had a new Golf capable of impressive economy; engines are getting smaller and efficiency is getting better.
Homer
Posts: 904
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Homer »

Fat Albert wrote:
Fat Albert wrote:GM is losing up to $49k On Every Chevvy Volt Sold

Is this astonishing headline from some right wing, conservative, oil funding conspiracy? Nope, its from Reuters!!!
Nearly two years after the introduction of the path-breaking plug-in hybrid, GM is still losing as much as $49,000 on each Volt it builds, according to estimates provided to Reuters by industry analysts and manufacturing experts. GM on Monday issued a statement disputing the estimates.

Cheap Volt lease offers meant to drive more customers to Chevy showrooms this summer may have pushed that loss even higher. There are some Americans paying just $5,050 to drive around for two years in a vehicle that cost as much as $89,000 to produce.
2,851 Volts each losing GM up to $49k, that's a loss of up to $139,699,000... In September alone... Apparently in ecofundieland this represents 'progress' towards sustainable development
Flawed logic. The figure of how much money GM is losing on Volts is not purely down to the manufacturing cost v sale cost. The major reason they are losing money per vehicle is the enormous cost of the upfront R&D which has to be recovered over the lifetime of the vehicle program, combined with low vloume of sales. The more Volts that GM sells, the more vehicles this cost is spread over. If GM sells enough the progam could become profitable (f*cking unlikely).
Homer
Posts: 904
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Homer »

Fat Albert wrote:
Saward wrote:Paris was the location for the biennial Mondial de l’Automobile show at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre. This is one of the biggest car shows in the world and in 2010 attracted an impressive 1.2 million visitors.

However, it is fair to say that the mood in Paris is anything by optimistic for the mainstream automobile companies. New car sales in Europe are at a 17-year low and even some of the big premium brands are beginning to feel the heat, while the big mainstream companies such as Renault, Peugeot and Fiat are struggling. The French brands in particular are not in a happy place. Last year France produced 2.2 million cars, compared to 3.5 million back in 2005. The workforce is 30 percent smaller than it was 10 years ago.

The one trend that everyone seems to agree on is that the focus of the industry has switched away from producing electric vehicles and has moved towards cost-effective, real-world, fuel-saving cars. Aside from Renault’s Zoe and a Mercedes SLS AMG EV concept car there was little of interest in the electric car sphere with even Lexus looking at more efficient conventional machinery. Volkswagen had a new Golf capable of impressive economy; engines are getting smaller and efficiency is getting better.
The focus of the industry never switched to electric in the first place. All the major OEMs are pursuing strategies that include downsizing of IC engines (usually incorporating VVT, direct injection and forced induction), hybrid powertrains (including micro-hybrid and plug-in hybrid) and fully electric powertrains.

The OEMs have to be realistic in terms of what the customer wants (and that customer is very different in Brazil, China, India etc. than one in California), so they cannot afford to just focus on vehicles that currently do not meet the demands of the majority of customers.
User avatar
Fat Albert
Posts: 1223
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trantor

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Fat Albert »

Homer

Slowy has neglected to mention that in order to achieve that sales figure GM are GIVING AWAY Volts, $2,500 a year on lease, for two years!

Mind you, that's exactly what Tesla did, but squared, with their roadster, losing $150k per car

Code: Select all

US Vehicles Sales September 2012       2011
  
Domestic Cars            408,655    329,086
Import Cars              176,308    146,433
Total Cars               584,963    475,519

Domestic Light Trucks    512,232    489,733
Import Light Trucks       86,604     85,084
Total Light Trucks       598,836    574,817

Domestic Light Vehicles  920,887    818,819
Import Light Vehicles    262,912    231,517
Total Light Vehicles   1,183,799  1,050,336
Slow Wing wrote:about 0.5% of the total US car market.
Not that I want to improve your arithmetic Slowy but

5519/584963*100 = 0.94% of the 'car' market

5519/1183799*100 = 0.47% of the vehicle market

Of course, there's a consensus that that 0.94% represents 97% of the car industry's losses :D
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Cheers, guys, this is all interesting stuff... :thumbup:

Correct, FA, I mean of the vehicle market.
User avatar
The Man Without Fear
Posts: 11126
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: The centre of The Horrendous Space Kablooie!

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by The Man Without Fear »

Homer wrote:
Fat Albert wrote:
Saward wrote:Paris was the location for the biennial Mondial de l’Automobile show at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre. This is one of the biggest car shows in the world and in 2010 attracted an impressive 1.2 million visitors.

However, it is fair to say that the mood in Paris is anything by optimistic for the mainstream automobile companies. New car sales in Europe are at a 17-year low and even some of the big premium brands are beginning to feel the heat, while the big mainstream companies such as Renault, Peugeot and Fiat are struggling. The French brands in particular are not in a happy place. Last year France produced 2.2 million cars, compared to 3.5 million back in 2005. The workforce is 30 percent smaller than it was 10 years ago.

The one trend that everyone seems to agree on is that the focus of the industry has switched away from producing electric vehicles and has moved towards cost-effective, real-world, fuel-saving cars. Aside from Renault’s Zoe and a Mercedes SLS AMG EV concept car there was little of interest in the electric car sphere with even Lexus looking at more efficient conventional machinery. Volkswagen had a new Golf capable of impressive economy; engines are getting smaller and efficiency is getting better.
The focus of the industry never switched to electric in the first place. All the major OEMs are pursuing strategies that include downsizing of IC engines (usually incorporating VVT, direct injection and forced induction), hybrid powertrains (including micro-hybrid and plug-in hybrid) and fully electric powertrains.

The OEMs have to be realistic in terms of what the customer wants (and that customer is very different in Brazil, China, India etc. than one in California), so they cannot afford to just focus on vehicles that currently do not meet the demands of the majority of customers.
Don't tell FA that, he thinks it's still 1985 and everyone's on a race to jack bigger powerplants under the bonnets.

I see Ford Europe's losses have been eyewatering. I wonder which hippy car he'll blame that on?
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Plug-in hybrids such as the Chevy Volt are mainly a bridging technology to fully electric vehicles, so far as I am concerned. I don't find the Chevy Volt to be particularly attractive to buy - though that lease offer would be tempting to some.

Tesla is where the BEV game is at for now, imo. Of the main car companies, Nissan-Renault appears to have lost some of its vigour for EVs and the others haven't really gotten started, as Homer says. It seems it's up to Tesla to bring in its $30,000 BEV in early 2015 and take BEV sales to the next level. (Unless something comes out of Asia?)
User avatar
Donger
Posts: 14243
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trump Tower

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Donger »

at least two Nissan Leafs in my neighborhood.

:thumbup:
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

Donger wrote:at least two Nissan Leafs in my neighborhood.

:thumbup:
Where have you been you old bugger?
bimboman
Posts: 67467
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by bimboman »

slow wing wrote:September Plug-In Electric Car Sales Surge, As Tesla Sells 200 (Or So)
Even without confirmed Tesla numbers, plug-in sales in September totaled 5,539 cars. That gives last month the highest total since modern electric cars went on sale in December 2010.

The Chevrolet Volt continued its recent strong sales, with 2,851 Volts delivered in September.
Notably:
:arrow: sales of the Chevy Volt have taken off - it is currently about half of the US plug-in market
:arrow: 5,539 plug-in cars represents about 0.5% of the total US car market. This was reached ahead of the pace needed for my takeover prediction in the OP, and first made in December 2006 - which had 0.5% reached in February 2013, as was discussed on page 7.

Steady progress... :thumbup:

I hope the maths you use on the warming stuff is better than you have used here .... 0.5% you say ? really ?

For clarities sake it is 0.05% ,... so the Target will be missed by a whole factor.
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

bimboman wrote:
slow wing wrote:September Plug-In Electric Car Sales Surge, As Tesla Sells 200 (Or So)
Even without confirmed Tesla numbers, plug-in sales in September totaled 5,539 cars. That gives last month the highest total since modern electric cars went on sale in December 2010.

The Chevrolet Volt continued its recent strong sales, with 2,851 Volts delivered in September.
Notably:
:arrow: sales of the Chevy Volt have taken off - it is currently about half of the US plug-in market
:arrow: 5,539 plug-in cars represents about 0.5% of the total US car market. This was reached ahead of the pace needed for my takeover prediction in the OP, and first made in December 2006 - which had 0.5% reached in February 2013, as was discussed on page 7.

Steady progress... :thumbup:

I hope the maths you use on the warming stuff is better than you have used here .... 0.5% you say ? really ?

For clarities sake it is 0.05% ,... so the Target will be missed by a whole factor.
US auto sales last month were 1,188,865. 5,539 = .46%.
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 28602
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Chickenrunning...

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Sandstorm »

slow wing wrote: Tesla is where the BEV game is at for now, imo. Of the main car companies, Nissan-Renault appears to have lost some of its vigour for EVs and the others haven't really gotten started, as Homer says. It seems it's up to Tesla to bring in its $30,000 BEV in early 2015 and take BEV sales to the next level. (Unless something comes out of Asia?)
Sales of full electric vehicles in Europe have tanked: too expensive, shit range, battery longevity worries, ugly looks.
bimboman
Posts: 67467
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by bimboman »

considering there total production of the S was less than 5,000 units in 2012, you think they sold 5,500 IN SEPTEMBER ALONE or it was a running total.... ?

The model "s" total production in 2012 is 4480 cars.... how many roadsters do they sell annually ?


"The company said it expects its full year sales for 2012 to be between $500 million to $600 million."

http://techcrunch.com/2012/07/25/tesla- ... on-update/.


looks pretty much like 5,000 cars this year to me. Graucho your maths are correct, Slowys presentation of Sept sales seems off.


Sept revenue year to date is 402 million USD ....

There own projection is total revenue of 1.6 billion in 2013. 20-22,000 cars ? NOT 1/2 A f**king % OF 12 Million.
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

bimboman wrote:considering there total production of the S was less than 5,000 units in 2012, you think they sold 5,500 IN SEPTEMBER ALONE or it was a running total.... ?
Who is "they"? It's not just Teslas - they're a small volume maker. The main number come from the Volt, the Leaf, the Prius and a number of smaller volume products.
Last edited by 6roucho on Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
DOB
Posts: 19117
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by DOB »

Bimbo, plugin sales, all models, make up half a percent of the September sales.

FA, where can I get a Chevy for $2500 a year? Been looking for a gas efficient cost effective car for months now since myself and the Mrs are each commuting 60 miles a day, so if you could point us in the direction of a deal like that there'll be many pints in it for you.
bimboman
Posts: 67467
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by bimboman »

indeed, I see that now. total not just Tesla's. (they sold 250 model "s". ). :blush:
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

bimboman wrote:indeed, I see that now. total not just Tesla's. (they sold 250 model "s". ). :blush:
Cross posts. We're in agreement. :thumbup:
Homer
Posts: 904
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Homer »

The Man Without Fear wrote:
Homer wrote:
Fat Albert wrote:
Saward wrote:Paris was the location for the biennial Mondial de l’Automobile show at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre. This is one of the biggest car shows in the world and in 2010 attracted an impressive 1.2 million visitors.

However, it is fair to say that the mood in Paris is anything by optimistic for the mainstream automobile companies. New car sales in Europe are at a 17-year low and even some of the big premium brands are beginning to feel the heat, while the big mainstream companies such as Renault, Peugeot and Fiat are struggling. The French brands in particular are not in a happy place. Last year France produced 2.2 million cars, compared to 3.5 million back in 2005. The workforce is 30 percent smaller than it was 10 years ago.

The one trend that everyone seems to agree on is that the focus of the industry has switched away from producing electric vehicles and has moved towards cost-effective, real-world, fuel-saving cars. Aside from Renault’s Zoe and a Mercedes SLS AMG EV concept car there was little of interest in the electric car sphere with even Lexus looking at more efficient conventional machinery. Volkswagen had a new Golf capable of impressive economy; engines are getting smaller and efficiency is getting better.
The focus of the industry never switched to electric in the first place. All the major OEMs are pursuing strategies that include downsizing of IC engines (usually incorporating VVT, direct injection and forced induction), hybrid powertrains (including micro-hybrid and plug-in hybrid) and fully electric powertrains.

The OEMs have to be realistic in terms of what the customer wants (and that customer is very different in Brazil, China, India etc. than one in California), so they cannot afford to just focus on vehicles that currently do not meet the demands of the majority of customers.
Don't tell FA that, he thinks it's still 1985 and everyone's on a race to jack bigger powerplants under the bonnets.

I see Ford Europe's losses have been eyewatering. I wonder which hippy car he'll blame that on?
All the OEMs are getting killed in Europe at the moment. There's a structural problem in that the market is down (permanently) compared to the capacity. Everyone is discounting to try and maintain market share and it's hitting the volume players the most. A lot of plants are already running short-time and I expect quite a few OEMs will be shutting some European facilities in the next 3 years.
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

Homer wrote:All the OEMs are getting killed in Europe at the moment. There's a structural problem in that the market is down (permanently) compared to the capacity. Everyone is discounting to try and maintain market share and it's hitting the volume players the most. A lot of plants are already running short-time and I expect quite a few OEMs will be shutting some European facilities in the next 3 years.
Labour costs too high, like Australian mining. The difference is the price of cars doesn't move around a lot.
User avatar
Donger
Posts: 14243
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trump Tower

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Donger »

6roucho wrote:
Donger wrote:at least two Nissan Leafs in my neighborhood.

:thumbup:
Where have you been you old bugger?

busy as bro'.

be back in touch when I put BO back in the WH.

:twisted:
Homer
Posts: 904
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Homer »

6roucho wrote:
Homer wrote:All the OEMs are getting killed in Europe at the moment. There's a structural problem in that the market is down (permanently) compared to the capacity. Everyone is discounting to try and maintain market share and it's hitting the volume players the most. A lot of plants are already running short-time and I expect quite a few OEMs will be shutting some European facilities in the next 3 years.
Labour costs too high, like Australian mining. The difference is the price of cars doesn't move around a lot.
Labour costs weren't a problem in previous years - cost per vehicle in European plants is generally pretty good. The problem is that the yearly market in Europe has contracted (lowest for 14 years this year) by about 4 millions vehicles since 2008!
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

Donger wrote:
6roucho wrote:
Donger wrote:at least two Nissan Leafs in my neighborhood.

:thumbup:
Where have you been you old bugger?

busy as bro'.

be back in touch when I put BO back in the WH.

:twisted:
Use my email from the bored - it might have changed. We can Skype. :)
User avatar
Fat Albert
Posts: 1223
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Trantor

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by Fat Albert »

DOB wrote:FA, where can I get a Chevy for $2500 a year? Been looking for a gas efficient cost effective car for months now since myself and the Mrs are each commuting 60 miles a day, so if you could point us in the direction of a deal like that there'll be many pints in it for you.
The Volt is no good for you then DOB, it's battery only range is 35 miles, and that only when it's not raining, cold, hot or dark :P
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

Fat Albert wrote:
DOB wrote:FA, where can I get a Chevy for $2500 a year? Been looking for a gas efficient cost effective car for months now since myself and the Mrs are each commuting 60 miles a day, so if you could point us in the direction of a deal like that there'll be many pints in it for you.
The Volt is no good for you then DOB, it's battery only range is 35 miles, and that only when it's not raining, cold, hot or dark :P
Well yes, but it's actual range is 379 miles.
User avatar
DOB
Posts: 19117
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by DOB »

Fat Albert wrote:
DOB wrote:FA, where can I get a Chevy for $2500 a year? Been looking for a gas efficient cost effective car for months now since myself and the Mrs are each commuting 60 miles a day, so if you could point us in the direction of a deal like that there'll be many pints in it for you.
The Volt is no good for you then DOB, it's battery only range is 35 miles, and that only when it's not raining, cold, hot or dark :P
Plus I don't have electrical outputs accessible at my home (upstairs apartment) or work (don't think they'd allow me plug in here, but you never know...) but it apparently gets 50mpg running just on gas, so that'd be way ahead of the 30-something my car gets, and more than double herself's, for a fraction the price of the used Priuses/Prii she's been eyeing up the last while.

So please, for shits and giggles, tell me where I can lease a 2012 car for $2500, because I'd really love to at least test drive one.


CNN seem to think the downpayment is $2800, with $299/month payments. Is this maybe where your'e getting confused? That's clearly a loss-leader, but with high customer satisfaction ratings and people getting up to $150mpg...
User avatar
slow wing
Posts: 5124
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: NZ

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by slow wing »

Tesla Model S vs BMW M5 Drag Race - YouTube (1m12s)

Image


I wonder who wins :?:
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

The [x] has an unfair advantage. It's faster.
bimboman
Posts: 67467
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by bimboman »

And there are no corners.....
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

bimboman wrote:And there are no corners.....
I think the Tesla might win. Jointed wishbones front and rear with computer-controlled ride height control on each wheel, McLaren style, but more importantly a centre of gravity 6 inches lower than the Beemer.

Here's a walkaround: some very advanced engineering there: http://www.insideline.com/tesla/model-s ... round.html

I reckon it'd murder my AMG in the twisties as well.
bimboman
Posts: 67467
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by bimboman »

6roucho wrote:
bimboman wrote:And there are no corners.....
I think the Tesla might win. Jointed wishbones front and rear with computer-controlled ride height control on each wheel, McLaren style, but more importantly a centre of gravity 6 inches lower than the Beemer.

Here's a walkaround: some very advanced engineering there: http://www.insideline.com/tesla/model-s ... round.html

I reckon it'd murder my AMG in the twisties as well.

I do hope that is one of them new "GREEN " AMG's Graucho... ;)
User avatar
6roucho
Posts: 9504
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Gangly Beehive

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by 6roucho »

bimboman wrote:
6roucho wrote:
bimboman wrote:And there are no corners.....
I think the Tesla might win. Jointed wishbones front and rear with computer-controlled ride height control on each wheel, McLaren style, but more importantly a centre of gravity 6 inches lower than the Beemer.

Here's a walkaround: some very advanced engineering there: http://www.insideline.com/tesla/model-s ... round.html

I reckon it'd murder my AMG in the twisties as well.

I do hope that is one of them new "GREEN " AMG's Graucho... ;)
No mate, I do my part for climate change in the business domain. I get better results by selling a copy of my carbon accounting system than by selling my car. Having said that, I'm going to buy one of these Teslas.
bimboman
Posts: 67467
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: RIP the internal combustion engine!

Post by bimboman »

I am sure YOU get fantastic results... :nod:
Post Reply