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Whos Going to Lead the Labor Rabble
Albo 38%  38%  [ 5 ]
Plibbers 8%  8%  [ 1 ]
Bowen 8%  8%  [ 1 ]
Chalmers 23%  23%  [ 3 ]
Uncle Tony 8%  8%  [ 1 ]
Clive Palmer 15%  15%  [ 2 ]
George Smith 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 13
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:54 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
Muttonbirds wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:
If this is accurate then we are f@#ked. No non essential business will survive under current circumstances until Oct/Nov


I'm starting to think we are f**ked regardless, and all the billions of economic stimulus will do is to simply prolong the inevitable. State and Federal Governments will soon stop paying their employees. Utilities and services will stop and by June/July it will be law of the jungle and survival of the fittest. No electricity, no water, no police. Civil society as we know it will cease. I need to buy some guns and a shitload of amo.
You could always move back to New Zealand.


I'm not convinced that NZ would be immune from the global economic meltdown that would result from a prolonged COVID-19 lockdown. If civil society in Australia was to collapse, I think the same thing would happen in NZ.
Left-leaning Govt though. Teacher friendly, strong Union, etc. Could be good for you.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:54 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:
If this is accurate then we are f@#ked. No non essential business will survive under current circumstances until Oct/Nov


I'm starting to think we are f**ked regardless, and all the billions of economic stimulus will do is to simply prolong the inevitable. State and Federal Governments will soon stop paying their employees. Utilities and services will stop and by June/July it will be law of the jungle and survival of the fittest. No electricity, no water, no police. Civil society as we know it will cease. I need to buy some guns and a shitload of amo.


Money sent out will be paying absolute necessities and the rest will be held for emergencies and what may come in an uncertain future. It wont kickstart an economy in shutdown.

Its hard to know what will happen, but I do know you can't get ammo etc now unless you are a farmer etc. Where you are should be ok. Unless they have read your posts ;)


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:55 am 
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We are all South Africans now, bru.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:56 am 
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kiwinoz wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:
If this is accurate then we are f@#ked. No non essential business will survive under current circumstances until Oct/Nov


I'm starting to think we are f**ked regardless, and all the billions of economic stimulus will do is to simply prolong the inevitable. State and Federal Governments will soon stop paying their employees. Utilities and services will stop and by June/July it will be law of the jungle and survival of the fittest. No electricity, no water, no police. Civil society as we know it will cease. I need to buy some guns and a shitload of amo.


Money sent out will be paying absolute necessities and the rest will be held for emergencies and what may come in an uncertain future. It wont kickstart an economy in shutdown.

Its hard to know what will happen, but I do know you can't get ammo etc now unless you are a farmer etc. Where you are should be ok. Unless they have read your posts ;)


:lol:


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:05 am 
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kiap wrote:
We are all South Africans now, bru.


The way I see it, it will take 2-3 months until the State govts can no longer afford to pay their workers. The absence of police will mean a breakdown of society and complete absence of law and order. Chaos will reign supreme and for a few weeks/months society will resemble a full blown zombie apocalypse. However, eventually the Outlaw Motorcycle gangs will step up and fill the vacuum. After all, chaos is bad for business. By the end of 2020 in QLD each town/suburb across the state will be run by the chapter of their local OMC gang and our state currency will be meth.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:13 am 
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Crossbows can be made cheaply with materials available in most scrapyards my recommendations would be a combination of leaf springs rocker arms and handbrake cables. good luck.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:25 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
our state currency will be meth.

Already is on the Goldy :lol:

Something quite interesting about the JobKeeper assistance scheme. Employers (and employees) who access it need to go through the Tax Office and show their business impacted. Hmmm, un-filed tax returns, anyone? And "book losses" resulting in tiny incomes... ? Over three months and beyond this will hoover up a good chunk of the old cash economy and the ATO (and thence to the states) will be taxing more of it.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:01 am 
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Crazy Ed wrote:
Crossbows can be made cheaply with materials available in most scrapyards my recommendations would be a combination of leaf springs rocker arms and handbrake cables. good luck.


Nobody is laughing about my obsession with Martial Arts now :lol:

In all seriousness, even Scotty is starting to realise - his comments about their being no Left or Right in this is telling.

He may have realised this is his chance to be remembered for something other than Engadine Maccas.

The world will change, and hopefully for the better.

Australia is a pretty good place to be for the change


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:38 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
kiap wrote:
We are all South Africans now, bru.


The way I see it, it will take 2-3 months until the State govts can no longer afford to pay their workers. The absence of police will mean a breakdown of society and complete absence of law and order. Chaos will reign supreme and for a few weeks/months society will resemble a full blown zombie apocalypse. However, eventually the Outlaw Motorcycle gangs will step up and fill the vacuum. After all, chaos is bad for business. By the end of 2020 in QLD each town/suburb across the state will be run by the chapter of their local OMC gang and our state currency will be meth.


Are you being serious that you think you might not get paid? If essentiall services are at risk ststes will get ScoMo to print another $1b. If Mad Max does estaet to look like a possibility then we will be in curfews and martial law before then. I would suggest you make friends with members of the local gun club. Its a great sport. You cant shoot now at ranges but in your scenario there might be other opprtunities :twisted:


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:42 am 
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kiwinoz wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiap wrote:
We are all South Africans now, bru.


The way I see it, it will take 2-3 months until the State govts can no longer afford to pay their workers. The absence of police will mean a breakdown of society and complete absence of law and order. Chaos will reign supreme and for a few weeks/months society will resemble a full blown zombie apocalypse. However, eventually the Outlaw Motorcycle gangs will step up and fill the vacuum. After all, chaos is bad for business. By the end of 2020 in QLD each town/suburb across the state will be run by the chapter of their local OMC gang and our state currency will be meth.


Are you being serious that you think you might not get paid? If essentiall services are at risk ststes will get ScoMo to print another $1b. If Mad Max does estaet to look like a possibility then we will be in curfews and martial law before then. I would suggest you make friends with members of the local gun club. Its a great sport. You cant shoot now at ranges but in your scenario there might be other opprtunities :twisted:


Not fully serious, I was just in a dramatic mood when I wrote those earlier comments. I mean a Mad Max scenario could happen if this goes on for months and then years, sure But if essential govt workers go then pretty much everyone else will have lost their jobs already, and the world will be a very scary place. I can't see any state governments being allowed to go bankrupt.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:46 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiap wrote:
We are all South Africans now, bru.


The way I see it, it will take 2-3 months until the State govts can no longer afford to pay their workers. The absence of police will mean a breakdown of society and complete absence of law and order. Chaos will reign supreme and for a few weeks/months society will resemble a full blown zombie apocalypse. However, eventually the Outlaw Motorcycle gangs will step up and fill the vacuum. After all, chaos is bad for business. By the end of 2020 in QLD each town/suburb across the state will be run by the chapter of their local OMC gang and our state currency will be meth.


Are you being serious that you think you might not get paid? If essentiall services are at risk ststes will get ScoMo to print another $1b. If Mad Max does estaet to look like a possibility then we will be in curfews and martial law before then. I would suggest you make friends with members of the local gun club. Its a great sport. You cant shoot now at ranges but in your scenario there might be other opprtunities :twisted:


Not fully serious, I was just in a dramatic mood when I wrote those earlier comments. I mean a Mad Max scenario could happen if this goes on for months and then years, sure But if essential govt workers go then pretty much everyone else will have lost their jobs already, and the world will be a very scary place. I can't see any state governments being allowed to go bankrupt.

I wonder if I can learn how to sail from the internet? If the world goes to shit and I have to fight in a civil war or mad max style gang fights, I'd rather do that back home than in Oz.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:36 pm 
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UncleFB wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiap wrote:
We are all South Africans now, bru.


The way I see it, it will take 2-3 months until the State govts can no longer afford to pay their workers. The absence of police will mean a breakdown of society and complete absence of law and order. Chaos will reign supreme and for a few weeks/months society will resemble a full blown zombie apocalypse. However, eventually the Outlaw Motorcycle gangs will step up and fill the vacuum. After all, chaos is bad for business. By the end of 2020 in QLD each town/suburb across the state will be run by the chapter of their local OMC gang and our state currency will be meth.


Are you being serious that you think you might not get paid? If essentiall services are at risk ststes will get ScoMo to print another $1b. If Mad Max does estaet to look like a possibility then we will be in curfews and martial law before then. I would suggest you make friends with members of the local gun club. Its a great sport. You cant shoot now at ranges but in your scenario there might be other opprtunities :twisted:


Not fully serious, I was just in a dramatic mood when I wrote those earlier comments. I mean a Mad Max scenario could happen if this goes on for months and then years, sure But if essential govt workers go then pretty much everyone else will have lost their jobs already, and the world will be a very scary place. I can't see any state governments being allowed to go bankrupt.

I wonder if I can learn how to sail from the internet? If the world goes to shit and I have to fight in a civil war or mad max style gang fights, I'd rather do that back home than in Oz.


Scope out your local marina. You'll find that 90% of the boats are untouched month by month.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:13 pm 
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UncleFB wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiap wrote:
We are all South Africans now, bru.


The way I see it, it will take 2-3 months until the State govts can no longer afford to pay their workers. The absence of police will mean a breakdown of society and complete absence of law and order. Chaos will reign supreme and for a few weeks/months society will resemble a full blown zombie apocalypse. However, eventually the Outlaw Motorcycle gangs will step up and fill the vacuum. After all, chaos is bad for business. By the end of 2020 in QLD each town/suburb across the state will be run by the chapter of their local OMC gang and our state currency will be meth.


Are you being serious that you think you might not get paid? If essentiall services are at risk ststes will get ScoMo to print another $1b. If Mad Max does estaet to look like a possibility then we will be in curfews and martial law before then. I would suggest you make friends with members of the local gun club. Its a great sport. You cant shoot now at ranges but in your scenario there might be other opprtunities :twisted:


Not fully serious, I was just in a dramatic mood when I wrote those earlier comments. I mean a Mad Max scenario could happen if this goes on for months and then years, sure But if essential govt workers go then pretty much everyone else will have lost their jobs already, and the world will be a very scary place. I can't see any state governments being allowed to go bankrupt.

I wonder if I can learn how to sail from the internet? If the world goes to shit and I have to fight in a civil war or mad max style gang fights, I'd rather do that back home than in Oz.


You're welcome to share my launch moored in Rushcutters Bay on the proviso you help me obtain the Tattersall and Illingworth Matua


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:47 am 
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Australian the land of peados. Well done you fvck nuts! :thumbdown:

The right wing are a bunch of peados!

Izzy and ScoMo are ecstatic.

Burn the church!!!


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:59 am 
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The Optimist wrote:
Australian the land of peados. Well done you fvck nuts! :thumbdown:

The right wing are a bunch of peados!

Izzy and ScoMo are ecstatic.

Burn the church!!!


Umm, I think this is the thread you're looking for

https://forum.planetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=89415


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:16 am 
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I was going to buy some ammo. I don't own a gun so can anyone recommend a good all purpose type?


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:52 pm 
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Brumbie_Steve wrote:
I was going to buy some ammo. I don't own a gun so can anyone recommend a good all purpose type?


Buy ammo for what? The question doesn't make sense.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:05 pm 
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kiwinoz wrote:
Brumbie_Steve wrote:
I was going to buy some ammo. I don't own a gun so can anyone recommend a good all purpose type?


Buy ammo for what? The question doesn't make sense.


Don't listen to him Steve. All ammunition works with all firearms, so just buy whatever is cheapest and sort out a gun later.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:22 pm 
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Meanwhile, back in the real world. It is pretty obvious that large-scale reform of the taxation system will be high on the agenda as soon as things begin to return to normal.


I have no doubt that high on the list of targets will be those in the affluent self-funded retiree echelon, and so they (we) should be. Refunds of excess franking credits. Ha ha ha. Goneski!!!!!


Last edited by wamberal99 on Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:30 pm 
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wamberal99 wrote:
Meanwhile, back in the real world. It is pretty obvious that large-scale reform of the taxation system will be high on the agenda as soon as things begin to return to normal.


I have not doubt that high on the list of targets will be those in the affluent self-funded retiree echelon, and so they (we) should be. Refunds of excess franking credits. Ha ha ha. Goneski!!!!!


The government will have a rare opportunity to reform taxation to pay for the COVID-19 stimulus.The public will support changes because they know the bill needs to be paid. But will the govt have the courage?

I think they will increase and broaden the GST, say to 15%. They should also look at reversing recently passed but yet to be embedded income tax cuts, which are particularly beneficial to higher earners. In the post COViD-19 world do people earning more than $180K really need a tax cut?

I hope that COVID-19 teaches us the lesson that you cannot continually cut govt services to the bone, year in and year out. We are all better off paying a bit more for better services.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:39 pm 
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We are all socialists now!!!


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:42 pm 
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wamberal99 wrote:
We are all socialists now!!!


Those of us who vote Labor have been calling for higher taxation and better service provision for years. That's the platform that Bill Shorten took to the last election (actually he proposed lowering tax for the poor but increasing it for the wealthy) and he was rejected. There are thousands of Australians who voted for the Coalition who are now dealing with a grossly under-funded Centrelink and being cared for in underfunded hospitals. I hope they reflect on their choices.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:53 pm 
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Kahu wrote:
UncleFB wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:

The way I see it, it will take 2-3 months until the State govts can no longer afford to pay their workers. The absence of police will mean a breakdown of society and complete absence of law and order. Chaos will reign supreme and for a few weeks/months society will resemble a full blown zombie apocalypse. However, eventually the Outlaw Motorcycle gangs will step up and fill the vacuum. After all, chaos is bad for business. By the end of 2020 in QLD each town/suburb across the state will be run by the chapter of their local OMC gang and our state currency will be meth.


Are you being serious that you think you might not get paid? If essentiall services are at risk ststes will get ScoMo to print another $1b. If Mad Max does estaet to look like a possibility then we will be in curfews and martial law before then. I would suggest you make friends with members of the local gun club. Its a great sport. You cant shoot now at ranges but in your scenario there might be other opprtunities :twisted:


Not fully serious, I was just in a dramatic mood when I wrote those earlier comments. I mean a Mad Max scenario could happen if this goes on for months and then years, sure But if essential govt workers go then pretty much everyone else will have lost their jobs already, and the world will be a very scary place. I can't see any state governments being allowed to go bankrupt.

I wonder if I can learn how to sail from the internet? If the world goes to shit and I have to fight in a civil war or mad max style gang fights, I'd rather do that back home than in Oz.


You're welcome to share my launch moored in Rushcutters Bay on the proviso you help me obtain the Tattersall and Illingworth Matua

Deal. :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:21 am 
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I think COVID-19 will change the way Australians look at our Federation and governance. Previously the Federal govt was all dominant and supreme. Their ability to tax meant that they were uniquely able to create and take away wealth to citizens. The Feds decide the winners and losers in Australian society. But this power is really quite superficial in the sense that it's really only apparent in times of prosperity.

In times of crisis such as now it has become very apparent that the States are really much more powerful than the Federal govt. And when the two levels of govt disagree, the states can pretty much do what they like. All the big decisions and tough calls are being made by the Premiers. They are the ones in charge of all the service delivery. Health, education and law enforcement are all very topical right now and they are all completely controlled by the states. Morrison has been reduced to being the dispenser of money. And our much vaunted Border Force, who gleefully terrorise asylum seekers and poor Indonesian fisherman in leaky boats, have been exposed as being a fraud and as useless as tits on a bull.

Basically, we all need to get much more involved and engaged with state politics. Sure it's less sexy than Federal politics, but it's arguably more important.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:57 am 
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AC very true , NSW already looking at loosening restrictions by May. If Vic and Qld go down a similar path then Federal Govt becomes irrelevant again.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:12 am 
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So in others news ratings agency S&P have signalled Australia might lose its AAA credit rating because of the COVID-19 spend.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-eco ... G7FhBB0agk
Quote:
Ratings agency puts Australia on negative watch over virus spend

By Shane Wright

Ratings agency S&P Global has put Australia's triple A credit rating on negative watch, saying there had been a "substantial deterioration" in the nation's finances and the country faced the risk of a deep recession.

As the Morrison government introduces its $130 billion JobKeeper program into the Federal Parliament, the agency said the fiscal and economic risks facing Australia were "tilted toward the downside".

On top of its JobKeeper program, the government has promised more than $66 billion in spending plus billions more in loan guarantees to help businesses survive pandemic-related closedowns.

S&P said Australia had strong institutions, credible monetary policy and a floating exchange rate which all helped support the country's triple A rating.

But the spending related to the pandemic, plus the economic hit facing the country, meant the nation's credit rating could be downgraded within the next two years.

"The COVID-19 outbreak has dealt Australia a severe economic and fiscal shock," it said.

"We expect the Australian economy to plunge into recession for the first time in almost 30 years, causing a substantial deterioration of the government's fiscal headroom at the 'AAA' rating level.

"The large budget deficits that we project in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 are likely temporary and do not represent a structural weakening of fiscal performance.

"Net government debt and relative interest cost nevertheless are likely to remain at elevated levels for a number of years."

Australia has the top rating from the world's three major agencies - S&P, Moody's and Fitch.

A downgrade in ratings is normally associated with an increase in international borrowing costs.

S&P said it expects federal and state budgets to deteriorate sharply this year and next with only a recover starting in 2022.

But it said it will take time for the budget to repair even if stimulus measures end quickly, adding government revenues will take years to properly recover.

"Revenue headwinds, including company and personal income taxes, consumption taxes, and property conveyance duties, and rising social welfare payments and health costs will drag on Australia's general government balance during the next few years, even as the government's large stimulus packages cease," it said.

"We believe there could be more fiscal stimulus packages to come and that economic conditions could further deteriorate, pushing the expected recovery beyond our current expectation of late 2020."

The agency believes Australia is already in recession, and forecasts GDP per person to shrink by 6.4 per cent this year and then by another 7.2 per cent in 2021.

The announcement followed Treasurer Josh Frydenberg ruling out an increase in the GST to help pay for the government's spending.

Mr Frydenberg, pressed on Sky News if he would look to increase or broaden the GST, said it was not on the agenda.

"We've no plans to do that," he said.

The Treasurer said the government's budget management of recent years had given it the space to develop large measures to protect the economy.

"We have been able to spend in a much more targeted way and in a much more substantial way than many other countries because we had got our books into shape before this crisis hit," he said.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:22 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
So in others news ratings agency S&P have signalled Australia might lose its AAA credit rating because of the COVID-19 spend.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-eco ... G7FhBB0agk


I don't think this is a big deal to be honest. I assume a lot of AAA countries will be in a similar position.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:23 am 
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Sensible Stephen wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
So in others news ratings agency S&P have signalled Australia might lose its AAA credit rating because of the COVID-19 spend.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-eco ... G7FhBB0agk


I don't think this is a big deal to be honest. I assume a lot of AAA countries will be in a similar position.


It's completely irrelevant right now. Surely there isn't a single country that escapes this without smashing their credit rating?


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:26 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
Sensible Stephen wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
So in others news ratings agency S&P have signalled Australia might lose its AAA credit rating because of the COVID-19 spend.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-eco ... G7FhBB0agk


I don't think this is a big deal to be honest. I assume a lot of AAA countries will be in a similar position.


It's completely irrelevant right now. Surely there isn't a single country that escapes this without smashing their credit rating?


Agreed. Surely this virus smashes everyone more or less equally. Maybe some countries were running a decent surplus, but I doubt it would be enough to cover the hit everyone is going to take.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:29 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
wamberal99 wrote:
We are all socialists now!!!


Those of us who vote Labor have been calling for higher taxation and better service provision for years. That's the platform that Bill Shorten took to the last election (actually he proposed lowering tax for the poor but increasing it for the wealthy) and he was rejected. There are thousands of Australians who voted for the Coalition who are now dealing with a grossly under-funded Centrelink and being cared for in underfunded hospitals. I hope they reflect on their choices.


Watching them squeal on the news was a great example of Schadenfreude!

"But, we're not like the other Unemployed"!

I've always said that if we sorted out our taxation on minerals companies (e.g. Gas exports) we'd be able to implement the German style Unemployment benefit system (For 1 year immediately after getting let go).

Our sovereign wealth fund would be much higher also.

Let's hope people remember


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:35 am 
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Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
I've always said that if we sorted out our taxation on minerals companies (e.g. Gas exports) we'd be able to implement the German style Unemployment benefit system (For 1 year immediately after getting let go).

Our sovereign wealth fund would be much higher also.

Let's hope people remember


The ALP tried to remedy how we tax resources, and was savaged by the 'Mining Tax' scare campaign - which was the mother of all scare campaigns.

The problem is that our tax settings remains largely untouched since the Howard era. Our current settings were manageable back then because we were experiencing a once in a century resources boom. Politicians have been too scared to drastically change these settings because they know Australians always vote with their hip pocket. Shorten tried to move on negative gearing last year and got savaged. Perhaps COVID-19 will change the mindset of Australian voters?


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:37 am 
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Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
Watching them squeal on the news was a great example of Schadenfreude!

"But, we're not like the other Unemployed"!


There was a young, professional looking woman on TV the other night, newly unemployed, sobbing hysterically and saying that she always thought she was better than people who were on the dole. It was confronting and hilarious in equal measures.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:51 am 
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/treasury-modelled-a-pandemic-14-years-ago-this-is-what-it-found-20200406-p54hel

What the Government is following

Quote:
For anyone wanting to understand the federal government's economic game plan, a 2006 research paper titled A primer on the macro-economic effects of an influenza pandemic is a very useful read.

It reveals the strategic thinking that underpinned the government's remarkable embrace of $214 billion in support measures to combat the economic and societal fallout from the COVID-19 virus.

Treasury research paper called for measures to ensure economy sprang back as quickly as possible Alex Ellinghausen

The lead author of the paper was one Steven Kennedy, the current Treasury secretary who did his PhD looking at the relationship between the economy and health.

He and two Treasury colleagues wrote the paper several years later, and it included running numbers through Treasury’s macro-econometric model, called TRYM.

The bottom line is a predicted 5.7 per cent decline in gross domestic product in the first year, about half the collapse following the 1930s Depression.

But more instructive is the detailing of the six main drivers of this contraction and with it the key conclusions of Kennedy and his co-researchers, Jim Thomson and Petar Vujanovic, for any government facing a pandemic.

Summarising the policy implication of a pandemic, Kennedy and his colleagues suggested "a role for government in promoting an environment in which people can quickly resume economic activity once a pandemic begins to dissipate".

They warned that the hit to household confidence would be a key driver of damage to the economy during a pandemic.

"Furthermore, confidence effects in combination with the short-term withdrawal of labour are likely to produce most of the short-term negative impact on the economy."

The realisation that quickly underpinning consumer spending and jobs was the key strategic goal that saw Treasury rush to design up the massive JobSeeker and even bigger JobKeeper programs.

Rather than over-focus on eligibility, both programs seek to rapidly put cash in households' hands while giving business a reason to hold on to staff.

The need to frame a response that would enable the economy to spring back after the pandemic passes has been the central pillar of the government's response.

Kennedy and his team studied the impacts of various viral outbreaks and neatly identified and quantified the six shocks and called out the predicted falls in consumer confidence and demand, business investment and labour demand as the key targets for government response.

Consumer spending is about 60 per cent Australia's GDP and the sharp collapse in consumer confidence over the last month is an early indicator of what Kennedy et al predicted would be a 6.3 per cent fall in household consumption over the first year.

This is compounded by job losses. "The large fall in consumption results in a recession and an increase in the unemployment rate which exacerbates the fall in consumption," the report states. The fall in household demand reduces GDP by 2.5 per cent in year one.

Similarly business and dwelling investment falls as companies and people save cash and buckle down for the inevitable recession, leading to a further 2.5 per cent hit to GDP.

Ominously the Treasury paper warns: "Consistent with the relative persistence of investment slowdowns in history, both of the investment adjustments are considerably longer than the one year we examine here."

The final hit is "a large negative demand shock to labour consistent with a substantial reduction in business hiring and a large number of temporary business shutdowns. The effect is a decline in household income and a large increase in the unemployment rate."

This drives a further 0.7 per cent reduction in GDP, creating a first year impact of a 5.7 hit to GDP.

An early OECD forecast has suggested a 22 per cent hit to GDP from the economic shutdown due to the virus.

Kennedy's report was relatively sanguine about the long-run impacts from a pandemic, but with one major caveat.

"What is clear, however, is that except in the most extreme circumstances – more extreme than those experienced in the Spanish flu epidemic – the short-run effects of a pandemic on GDP from illness, social distancing and loss of confidence would be much larger than the long-run effects from deaths, in both aggregate and per capita terms.
"


Hindsight is wonderful, but history showed in previous pandemics those who stopped the inflow of infections from overseas more quickly had much better outcomes. Instead of trying to fly Chinese students in to Australia in Feb we should have restricted flights to a level where we could test and track anyone arriving. 6 weeks later it was effectively too late.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:57 am 
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kiwinoz wrote:
AC very true , NSW already looking at loosening restrictions by May. If Vic and Qld go down a similar path then Federal Govt becomes irrelevant again.


We’re watching a delicate Fandango between state and federal govts throughout this crisis. It’s interesting, to put it mildly.

A brave and progressive govt would seize the chance to reform heavily now knowing public sentiment will support good initiative regardless of scare campaigns. I don’t think the Coalition are that party.

I’m working in SA. Our site is viable and operating but there has been a lot of pressure from the state govt regarding isolation and healthy distancing practises. You get the feeling any slip up could see it closed down, a massively expensive exercise in itself not to mention the loss of revenue. I’m currently on enforced leave, in semi isolation in a hotel in Adelaide after working a month straight. Like many, I can’t go home due to isolation policies at both ends. While I’ve been here new rosters have been rolled out and it looks like the whole site will move to 2&2 rosters. A fortnight on and off... I’m guessing they’ll pay for accommodation for those of us stranded in SA. That’s a massive expense of course but it keeps the operation viable and revenue flowing for the owner and the state.

This looks like being our world for now. A lot of guys are talking about leaving. I’m just grateful to have a job.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:12 am 
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Tough gig GS. It is what is and you still have a job but :(


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:55 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
I think COVID-19 will change the way Australians look at our Federation and governance. Previously the Federal govt was all dominant and supreme. Their ability to tax meant that they were uniquely able to create and take away wealth to citizens. The Feds decide the winners and losers in Australian society. But this power is really quite superficial in the sense that it's really only apparent in times of prosperity.

In times of crisis such as now it has become very apparent that the States are really much more powerful than the Federal govt. And when the two levels of govt disagree, the states can pretty much do what they like. All the big decisions and tough calls are being made by the Premiers. They are the ones in charge of all the service delivery. Health, education and law enforcement are all very topical right now and they are all completely controlled by the states. Morrison has been reduced to being the dispenser of money. And our much vaunted Border Force, who gleefully terrorise asylum seekers and poor Indonesian fisherman in leaky boats, have been exposed as being a fraud and as useless as tits on a bull.

Basically, we all need to get much more involved and engaged with state politics. Sure it's less sexy than Federal politics, but it's arguably more important.

Yep. I agree there is a widespread misunderstanding of the limits to Cwth power and influence in practical terms. Even if I did not grasp this earlier, the last decade of my working life - much of it concerned with COAG energy policy - was sufficient to drive the point home. In most cases the Feds were but one voice amongst many and not one that must always be heeded.

Only where the Constitution gave the Cwth primacy were Cwth Ministers or public servants able to make or mould policy or law without the states / territories having the power of veto. The foremost example is national emissions policy and its practical outcomes: e.g. the RET scheme, where large generation certificates can be expected to be almost valueless from this year onwards; the absence of an express price on AGW emissions; the absence of the NEG or any other cooperative legislated scheme to integrate emissions and energy policy.

What we see playing out with regard to Cov-19 is unmistakably analogous. Whereas the Cwth has clear constitutional powers over, say, entry to and exit from Australia of people or goods and quarantine of new arrivals, the states / territories can exercise the powers with the greatest influence on people’s day-to-day behaviours.

In short: def. too early to announce the death of the states / territories.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:02 am 
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kiwinoz wrote:
AC very true , NSW already looking at loosening restrictions by May. If Vic and Qld go down a similar path then Federal Govt becomes irrelevant again.



Daniel Andrews keeps stating that stage 4 restrictions will eventually come into place down here, so I'm not expecting the current restrictions to loosen up anytime soon unless there's a major shift....


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:10 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
wamberal99 wrote:
We are all socialists now!!!


Those of us who vote Labor have been calling for higher taxation and better service provision for years. That's the platform that Bill Shorten took to the last election (actually he proposed lowering tax for the poor but increasing it for the wealthy) and he was rejected. There are thousands of Australians who voted for the Coalition who are now dealing with a grossly under-funded Centrelink and being cared for in underfunded hospitals. I hope they reflect on their choices.



Get rid of negative gearing. Let millenials buy their first home.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:40 am 
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Ali's Choice wrote:
Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
Watching them squeal on the news was a great example of Schadenfreude!

"But, we're not like the other Unemployed"!


There was a young, professional looking woman on TV the other night, newly unemployed, sobbing hysterically and saying that she always thought she was better than people who were on the dole. It was confronting and hilarious in equal measures.


A classic example of Liberal Divisive policy - and then the reality


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:29 am 
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kiwinoz wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
wamberal99 wrote:
We are all socialists now!!!


Those of us who vote Labor have been calling for higher taxation and better service provision for years. That's the platform that Bill Shorten took to the last election (actually he proposed lowering tax for the poor but increasing it for the wealthy) and he was rejected. There are thousands of Australians who voted for the Coalition who are now dealing with a grossly under-funded Centrelink and being cared for in underfunded hospitals. I hope they reflect on their choices.



Get rid of negative gearing. Let millenials buy their first home.

‘kenoath! Also, a general FÚCK YOU to the notion that the housing market=crucial aspect of ‘national wealth’. The prime function of the housing market should be providing housing to those that need it.


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