NZ Politics Thread

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Flockwitt
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Flockwitt »

I watched the implementation of a high speed train system in Taiwan. There's a country that you would consider ideal for it, a population the size of Australia living in the country the size of Tasmania. It works well as a link between the main centers and certainly didn't fail for all its ballooned cost. But it never got the passenger load they expected for shorter trips. People still preferred to drive and have their own car to get around at the destination. And that's with a country that has good public transport at the main rail station centers or cheap taxis and serious serious problems finding a car park. I just can't see a high speed rail link working in New Zealand. And the issues with earthquakes... a section of this single main artery damaged and everyone is back to cars for months on end.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by deadduck »

How will it help places in between? They'd only build basically point to point stops. No point having high speed rail if it is constantly slowing down and speeding up from picking up people at many stops. That's the function of a metro system.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by jdogscoop »

Looks like a poorly thought out, expensive, pie in the sky proposal to me.

Classic Greens.
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Fat Old Git
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Fat Old Git »

Just gone back and checked what I paid for high speed trains the last time I was in Europe (2017). Our fares averaged about $100 per person one way.
Last edited by Fat Old Git on Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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deadduck
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by deadduck »

Just watching the news about what will happen tomorrow. I'm banking on them extending it, not because it's required, but because no one will want to make the call and risk getting it wrong.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by jdogscoop »

deadduck wrote:Just watching the news about what will happen tomorrow. I'm banking on them extending it, not because it's required, but because no one will want to make the call and risk getting it wrong.
Probably the smartest available move given it will hand businesses extra time to tool up for level 3 restrictions.
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Tehui
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Tehui »

jdogscoop wrote:
deadduck wrote:Just watching the news about what will happen tomorrow. I'm banking on them extending it, not because it's required, but because no one will want to make the call and risk getting it wrong.
Probably the smartest available move given it will hand businesses extra time to tool up for level 3 restrictions.
It's almost inevitable that infections will increase when we drop to level 3. I'd hate to see us go back and forth between level 3 and 4 like a yoyo until a vaccine is developed, but I don't see how it can be avoided. Happy to be proven wrong.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Muttonbirds »

deadduck wrote:How will it help places in between? They'd only build basically point to point stops. No point having high speed rail if it is constantly slowing down and speeding up from picking up people at many stops. That's the function of a metro system.
I'm not talking about a lot of places in between but there's significant scope for development to ease the pressure on the Auckland isthmus.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Jeff the Bear »

I reckon we're going to Level 3. We should have a sweepstake.

Given that they've completed those randomised testing at supermarkets, and came up with nothing, it surely proved that there aren't randoms out there in the community with it. As such, the track and trace process is working. Why not open up to the new Level 3, which in reality is just a mildly watered down Level 4.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Wilderbeast »

jdogscoop wrote:Looks like a poorly thought out, expensive, pie in the sky proposal to me.

Classic Greens.
Why do you think it’s poorly thought out? Have you seen any detail on this?
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Enzedder »

Dark wrote:We don't have the population to warrant a high speed train network.

Especially when Air NZ will be sliding on the skins of their arse and domestic flights will be cheap as
It's harder to get to and fro from two airports than central train stations so that idea is a non-starter for me
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Enzedder »

Jeff the Bear wrote:I reckon we're going to Level 3. We should have a sweepstake.

Given that they've completed those randomised testing at supermarkets, and came up with nothing, it surely proved that there aren't randoms out there in the community with it. As such, the track and trace process is working. Why not open up to the new Level 3, which in reality is just a mildly watered down Level 4.
I reckon we hold off until 27th April.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by jdogscoop »

Wilderbeast wrote:
jdogscoop wrote:Looks like a poorly thought out, expensive, pie in the sky proposal to me.

Classic Greens.
Why do you think it’s poorly thought out? Have you seen any detail on this?
I read that article that Chloe Swarbrick linked to on Twitter.
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Flockwitt
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Flockwitt »

Tehui wrote:
jdogscoop wrote:
deadduck wrote:Just watching the news about what will happen tomorrow. I'm banking on them extending it, not because it's required, but because no one will want to make the call and risk getting it wrong.
Probably the smartest available move given it will hand businesses extra time to tool up for level 3 restrictions.
It's almost inevitable that infections will increase when we drop to level 3. I'd hate to see us go back and forth between level 3 and 4 like a yoyo until a vaccine is developed, but I don't see how it can be avoided. Happy to be proven wrong.
I'd guess we might see more yoyoing between 2 and 3/4. Three is still highly restrictive, no more than what many countries are considering a lock down and for mine I hope we go to it this week. I don't see where there is going to be specifically more risk after 4 weeks of lock down.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by jambanja »

jdogscoop wrote:
deadduck wrote:Just watching the news about what will happen tomorrow. I'm banking on them extending it, not because it's required, but because no one will want to make the call and risk getting it wrong.
Probably the smartest available move given it will hand businesses extra time to tool up for level 3 restrictions.
So I've heard this mentioned before, how does one do this from lockdown, there is a lot of organisational stuff that can be done but unless you can get deemed an essential business, how do you physically go and repurpose your factory etc. Are these business being allowed to do that
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by blackblackblack »

2 more at 4 then 2 at 3 is my pick. They have kind of telegraphed 3 but I reckon we will err on the side of caution. At least I hope we will.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by jambanja »

blackblackblack wrote:2 more at 4 then 2 at 3 is my pick. They have kind of telegraphed 3 but I reckon we will err on the side of caution. At least I hope we will.
I think they might have started talking about level 3 a little too early, especially if we do continue in level 4, once you put an idea in peoples minds it's pretty hard to get it back in the bag.
I think they've made the decision already, this cabinet meeting is window dressing and we will be in level 4 for a bit longer, which is going to piss off a lot of people.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by merlin the happy pig »

Tehui wrote:
jdogscoop wrote:
deadduck wrote:Just watching the news about what will happen tomorrow. I'm banking on them extending it, not because it's required, but because no one will want to make the call and risk getting it wrong.
Probably the smartest available move given it will hand businesses extra time to tool up for level 3 restrictions.
It's almost inevitable that infections will increase when we drop to level 3. I'd hate to see us go back and forth between level 3 and 4 like a yoyo until a vaccine is developed, but I don't see how it can be avoided. Happy to be proven wrong.
Somewhat depends on what the mode of transmission is.
Primary transmission by breathing in droplets vs secondary from touching surfaces droplets have fallen on.

If the majority is of the first form then we probably have a better chance of getting by with reasonable social distancing in workplaces where this is possible.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Anonymous 1 »

AD345 wrote:No-one is going to invest in mass public transport for a long time
Why not. We will probably have a global vaccine long before any public transport infrastructure schemes new are completed
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Anonymous 1 »

Sonny Blount wrote:
Auckman wrote:The best way for this fast train idea to work is to hook it up in conjunction with new housing estates in towns and make sure it goes directly to the main employment areas and tertiary education areas in the nearest city. Might help to pay for some of the costs.
x(

So many assumptions have to hold true over a long period of time for trains to work in NZ. Everybody has to work in just the right place and everybody has to live in just the right place. And if the planners assumptions manage to see into the future of work and hold true, then success means land prices go up in those just right areas.


Identify where there is scope to build homes and good transport links and do it. if you build it they will come.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by JPNZ »

Fat Old Git wrote:
Christchurch doesn't have a proper central station anymore. It's a small station outside of the 4 avenues that mainly caters to the Trans Alpine. I don't think it has a regular bus connection as it spends most of it's time empty.

That would all be solvable though. But you would need to make sure there was a good local transport network in place to support it.

We haven't managed to get ordinary passenger trains to get people from current commuter zones such as Rolleston and Rangiora largely because the trains wouldn't get people to where they need to go, and by the time you factor that in a 30 minute to 1 hour drive is still more appealing to a large percentage of your commuters.

A high speed train might open up the Christchurch job market and be appealing to some who currently live, or want to live in Ashburton or Timaru, but would it be enough to support that link and keep it affordable?
In Christchurch we can’t even get buses right, forget about rail. Also we don’t have traffic anywhere near as bad as Auckland or Wellington. Probably why personal vehicles are around the high 80% as chosen mode of transport daily from memory.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Sonny Blount »

deadduck wrote:Just watching the news about what will happen tomorrow. I'm banking on them extending it, not because it's required, but because no one will want to make the call and risk getting it wrong.

There has to be change, we have to move forward. Regardless of the number we put on it, we need to get more businesses operating safely this week. What number we call it doesn't matter, we are still locked down.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Auckman »

I hope it is extended by 2 more weeks then level 3 for a fortnight reviewable like GON said. NZF is clearly wanting it to go down to level 3 though.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Fat Old Git »

JPNZ wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
Christchurch doesn't have a proper central station anymore. It's a small station outside of the 4 avenues that mainly caters to the Trans Alpine. I don't think it has a regular bus connection as it spends most of it's time empty.

That would all be solvable though. But you would need to make sure there was a good local transport network in place to support it.

We haven't managed to get ordinary passenger trains to get people from current commuter zones such as Rolleston and Rangiora largely because the trains wouldn't get people to where they need to go, and by the time you factor that in a 30 minute to 1 hour drive is still more appealing to a large percentage of your commuters.

A high speed train might open up the Christchurch job market and be appealing to some who currently live, or want to live in Ashburton or Timaru, but would it be enough to support that link and keep it affordable?
In Christchurch we can’t even get buses right, forget about rail. Also we don’t have traffic anywhere near as bad as Auckland or Wellington. Probably why personal vehicles are around the high 80% as chosen mode of transport daily from memory.
Yeah, I use the buses every now and then, and have a reasonably good route if I want to get into the CBD cheaply. But to get to work I have to allow an hour vs 10 to 20 minutes. Half of that is just getting to and from the bus stops, so not something I'm keen on if the weather is shite.

To visit one of my friends accross the city my best bus option is a out 90 minutes and several changes, vs 20 in the car.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Auckman »

jambanja wrote:
blackblackblack wrote:2 more at 4 then 2 at 3 is my pick. They have kind of telegraphed 3 but I reckon we will err on the side of caution. At least I hope we will.
I think they might have started talking about level 3 a little too early, especially if we do continue in level 4, once you put an idea in peoples minds it's pretty hard to get it back in the bag.
I think they've made the decision already, this cabinet meeting is window dressing and we will be in level 4 for a bit longer, which is going to piss off a lot of people.
nah, reporting around this has it that cabinet are split. NZF ministers want to go to level 3 tomorrow (especially Winston and Shane) whereas Labour ministers are mostly wanting to extend it for another few weeks (probably led by Jacinda and Grant). Anyway, the polls seem to suggest that NZders support an extension of lockdown. They've set the final cabinet meeting from 10.30am tomorrow and won't have an announcement until 4.00pm, so it might well go down to the last bit of data.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by blackblackblack »

Auckman wrote:I hope it is extended by 2 more weeks then level 3 for a fortnight reviewable like GON said. NZF is clearly wanting it to go down to level 3 though.
I would also like to see it stay at 4 for another 2 weeks because it will piss off Hosking and Heather DP-A, purely for teh lols that one. We've done 4 weeks in lockdown, we can do another 2 in our sleep.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Auckman »

blackblackblack wrote:
Auckman wrote:I hope it is extended by 2 more weeks then level 3 for a fortnight reviewable like GON said. NZF is clearly wanting it to go down to level 3 though.
I would also like to see it stay at 4 for another 2 weeks because it will piss off Hosking and Heather DP-A, purely for teh lols that one. We've done 4 weeks in lockdown, we can do another 2 in our sleep.
Haven't kept up to date with Hosking and co lately but I saw a meme floating around where he seems to have changed his mind every week just so he can attack whatever the govt is doing. :lol:
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by blackblackblack »

Auckman wrote:
blackblackblack wrote:
Auckman wrote:I hope it is extended by 2 more weeks then level 3 for a fortnight reviewable like GON said. NZF is clearly wanting it to go down to level 3 though.
I would also like to see it stay at 4 for another 2 weeks because it will piss off Hosking and Heather DP-A, purely for teh lols that one. We've done 4 weeks in lockdown, we can do another 2 in our sleep.
Haven't kept up to date with Hosking and co lately but I saw a meme floating around where he seems to have changed his mind every week just so he can attack whatever the govt is doing. :lol:
Same as it ever was under a labour led government with that twat. Still, when you remember that he's only really there to fill the space between the ad breaks with as much pavlovian shite as possible to keep the mouth breathers listening you realise he is rather good at his job as a shill.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by RuggaBugga »

Jeff the Bear wrote:I reckon we're going to Level 3. We should have a sweepstake.

Given that they've completed those randomised testing at supermarkets, and came up with nothing, it surely proved that there aren't randoms out there in the community with it. As such, the track and trace process is working. Why not open up to the new Level 3, which in reality is just a mildly watered down Level 4.
That testing was only a few hundred people so doesn't prove much at all tbf.

I'd prefer to see I few days of few to no cases with 0 potential community transmission before they lift. I reckon they'll settle for the Tuesday after Anzac day.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by jdogscoop »

Fat Old Git wrote:
JPNZ wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
Christchurch doesn't have a proper central station anymore. It's a small station outside of the 4 avenues that mainly caters to the Trans Alpine. I don't think it has a regular bus connection as it spends most of it's time empty.

That would all be solvable though. But you would need to make sure there was a good local transport network in place to support it.

We haven't managed to get ordinary passenger trains to get people from current commuter zones such as Rolleston and Rangiora largely because the trains wouldn't get people to where they need to go, and by the time you factor that in a 30 minute to 1 hour drive is still more appealing to a large percentage of your commuters.

A high speed train might open up the Christchurch job market and be appealing to some who currently live, or want to live in Ashburton or Timaru, but would it be enough to support that link and keep it affordable?
In Christchurch we can’t even get buses right, forget about rail. Also we don’t have traffic anywhere near as bad as Auckland or Wellington. Probably why personal vehicles are around the high 80% as chosen mode of transport daily from memory.
Yeah, I use the buses every now and then, and have a reasonably good route if I want to get into the CBD cheaply. But to get to work I have to allow an hour vs 10 to 20 minutes. Half of that is just getting to and from the bus stops, so not something I'm keen on if the weather is shite.

To visit one of my friends accross the city my best bus option is a out 90 minutes and several changes, vs 20 in the car.
Absolutely.

The last time I worked in Ashburton in 2004, I had to go to Christchurch for two consecutive weeks for training. Even though it was in Papanui, I was up and back every day in about 1 hour 10 door to door. The cost of gas was inconsequential.

How many people in a similar situation, would give up the car for the Greens' high cost rail option, which to them would "open up" the cities and regions?

A: Two thirds of fvck all.

Tell 'em they're dreamin'.

None of them live within a bull's roar of the places they think they know something about.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Wilderbeast »

Was talking to the wife about it. Basically comes down to one of the following:

Level 3 tomorrow, as the economy has been hit hard and a 1-2 week increase on level 4 will hit it that much harder. Level 3 is still tough but allows a lot more businesses to function at some level.

1 week extension, as the Government doesn't trust NZers to behave over ANZAC weekend.

2 week extension to keep in the cycles the Government and health professionals have been discussing.

I think/hope there is a list they need to satisfy before hitting level 3. I.e. all new cases for the last week relating to known clusters, capacity to contact trace new cases within a set time, and extensive capacity to test everyone (to allow them to continue the random testing they have been doing). If we don't meet any of this, then we extend.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

Jeff the Bear wrote:I reckon we're going to Level 3. We should have a sweepstake.

Given that they've completed those randomised testing at supermarkets, and came up with nothing, it surely proved that there aren't randoms out there in the community with it. As such, the track and trace process is working. Why not open up to the new Level 3, which in reality is just a mildly watered down Level 4.
Just saying, but someone not a million miles from here mentioned that very same idea about 15 or 20 pages back. :nod:
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by sonic_attack »

Any regression back into lockdown in future is a business killer. A one up necessary pause is all well and good and survivable, but having to dip back into level 4 down the track you just chuck the towel in then for a small medium business.

When we go back I expect credit to have dried up. So it's cash up front for supplies and necessities to run your business. For a lot of folk that net 20 bullshit is history. There will be a lot of burned suppliers out there right now missing money they probably should have received end of February let alone the February and March invoices.

Chucking everything you have into your business in a hasty I'll prepared progression only to have to bounce back two months down the line will kill small medium businesses on the spot.

The only sensible approach is absolute certainty from here in.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by jdogscoop »

Yeah even the Victorian Government, which is Labo(u)r, said they can't go to defcon 4 unless it has to be done, for business reasons.

So far the level of cases hasn't justified it.

I think NZ needs to let its independent retailers open up again.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ali's Choice »

sonic_attack wrote:The only sensible approach is absolute certainty from here in.
Surely "absolute certainty" won't be possible for years?
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by sonic_attack »

Ali's Choice wrote:
sonic_attack wrote:The only sensible approach is absolute certainty from here in.
Surely "absolute certainty" won't be possible for years?
For business yes. We will lose a lot and be poorer, but we can work around that. We're an island nation who have reduced daily new cases to single digits.

The intent is eradication so that's our path. Whatever they're doing in Melbourne or Sweden has no relevance to us. The door is shut and the drawbridge pulled up. All we need do is stop transmission by treating everyone else as lepers with plague for another few months and we should be at zero.

The only people coming to New Zealand are those that are coming here for a long time, that will last years.

Forget that old New Zealand we had in February, we've chosen isolation and the changes that that will bring. I don't think New Zealand has really come to grips with what our future is. There's an expectation we just get to bounce back and be a part of the world in 12-18 months time.

Hopefully the plan works. We should be able to enjoy free movement between a few PI's and provide a gateway to them too.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ali's Choice »

sonic_attack wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
sonic_attack wrote:The only sensible approach is absolute certainty from here in.
Surely "absolute certainty" won't be possible for years?
For business yes. We will lose a lot and be poorer, but we can work around that. We're an island nation who have reduced daily new cases to single digits.

The intent is eradication so that's our path. Whatever they're doing in Melbourne or Sweden has no relevance to us. The door is shut and the drawbridge pulled up. All we need do is stop transmission by treating everyone else as lepers with plague for another few months and we should be at zero.

The only people coming to New Zealand are those that are coming here for a long time, that will last years.

Forget that old New Zealand we had in February, we've chosen isolation and the changes that that will bring. I don't think New Zealand has really come to grips with what our future is. There's an expectation we just get to bounce back and be a part of the world in 12-18 months time.

Hopefully the plan works. We should be able to enjoy free movement between a few PI's and provide a gateway to them too.
This post makes no sense. You have absolutely no idea what the future holds and what timelines the NZ govt will work off, so why pretend you do? Your attempt to post with certainty is just ridiculous. A week is a long time at the moment.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by sonic_attack »

A week is a long time sitting in a hotel room in Mangere awaiting your quarantine to finish and knowing you're only halfway there. And if you don't have a NZ passport chances are you're not coming at all. Right now that's a certainty, and I'll bet that's not changing in a week, or two weeks, or a month.

When you choose isolation you accept the trappings with it. The only certainty you have is uncertainty, consider that when you're getting your perm tomorrow.

The thinking here is entirely different. The "oh god the economy" types are a minority. Mitigation isn't an option and that's why almost everyone is at home, not out getting a haircut, or a soy frappuccino.

The only goal right now is eradication. The economy needs to fit into that. Whatever comes after comes after. With a vulnerable island population with no immunity you can be guaranteed there's big changes around the corner. It's not like you get to just stop and hang out, wait for a vaccine that isn't guaranteed to happen.

I'm not sure why people struggle to understand the changes in store for them, or the changes that will happen around them.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Sonny Blount »

sonic_attack wrote:A week is a long time sitting in a hotel room in Mangere awaiting your quarantine to finish and knowing you're only halfway there. And if you don't have a NZ passport chances are you're not coming at all. Right now that's a certainty, and I'll bet that's not changing in a week, or two weeks, or a month.

When you choose isolation you accept the trappings with it. The only certainty you have is uncertainty, consider that when you're getting your perm tomorrow.

The thinking here is entirely different. The "oh god the economy" types are a minority. Mitigation isn't an option and that's why almost everyone is at home, not out getting a haircut, or a soy frappuccino.

The only goal right now is eradication. The economy needs to fit into that. Whatever comes after comes after. With a vulnerable island population with no immunity you can be guaranteed there's big changes around the corner. It's not like you get to just stop and hang out, wait for a vaccine that isn't guaranteed to happen.

I'm not sure why people struggle to understand the changes in store for them, or the changes that will happen around them.
If eradication was a goal then you would have to be doing random sampling of the population now to validate the achievability.
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sonic_attack
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by sonic_attack »

Sonny Blount wrote:
If eradication was a goal then you would have to be doing random sampling of the population now to validate the achievability.
We have been. The sentinal testing done on random supermarket shoppers up and down the country as of 3 or 4 days ago.

The very premise of lurching to level 4 was eradication, and we've been told the entire idea has been eradication since we jumped into gear.
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