Planet Rugby Forum

Thai guy wrote:

Dark wrote:And certainly not 75% unless you don't actually think rationally

The Nats’ majority since 2014 has been cut by 3/4 and that is taking into acount the lower turnout in the by-election. The actual reduction is 88%.

The Nats’ majority since 2017 has been cut 60% accounting for turnout. These are facts.

By-elections are FPP. Only majorities matter, not percentage of the vote.

The Nats’ majority has dropped dramatically even in the face of gentrification and the economic cleansing of the electorate. They will be very concerned.

No offense but do you actually understand math?

2014

Nats 57.02% of the vote

By election 50.98%

This is not a loss of 3/4

I tell you what if you insist on talking numbers of voters

Explain Labour's drop in the by election

Dark wrote:I tell you what if you insist on talking numbers of voters

Explain Labour's drop in the by election

Isn’t that an entirely predictable result for a party in power?

NZ First has said 'no' to repealing the three strikes law.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics ... y-nz-first

Wilderbeast wrote:

jono45 wrote:

eugenius wrote:
In other news the three strikes law is soon gone .

Good job.

why is this good ?
there is currently a sick fudge going before the courts has beaten a person to the edge of their life , been covicted, then raped and murdered , convicted, now potentially done the same again ,wtf is wrong with locking the sick fudge up forever?

It’s good because there is zero evidence it makes any difference.

You can all sleep easier, looks like it is staying.

JB1981 wrote:NZ First has said 'no' to repealing the three strikes law.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics ... y-nz-first

Was surprised Labour even tried to go for it.

It was pretty obvious Winston couldn't go with it and Liabour would end up looking like headless chickens

Interesting graph in the article.

The graph is interesting and recidivist crime has a lot of causes so is a hard problem to solve. The spike in prison population in the last couple of years after a period of relative stability is pretty extreme.

Wilderbeast wrote:Interesting graph in the article.

Yes, the new bail laws (passed with broad based support) have been a fair more significant contributor to prison populations and are unlikely to revisited.

Wilderbeast wrote:

jono45 wrote:

eugenius wrote:
In other news the three strikes law is soon gone .

Good job.

It’s good because there is zero evidence it makes any difference.

Winston doesn't think so

Winston is a politican.

I see the 3 strikes repeal has been shot down...by NZF, not a great look for the coalition

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... y-nz-first

Wilderbeast wrote:Winston is a politican.

Did you vote for one of the coalition parties ? if so hes your politician

Wilderbeast wrote:Interesting graph in the article.

I prefer the gormless expression on Little's face.

jono45 wrote:

Wilderbeast wrote:Winston is a politican.

Did you vote for one of the coalition parties ? if so hes your politician

No, he is our politician.

Wilderbeast wrote:

jono45 wrote:

Wilderbeast wrote:Winston is a politican.

Did you vote for one of the coalition parties ? if so hes your politician

No, he is our politician.

I will acknowledge Jacinda as my prime minister as she won a majority fair and square but I'd never refer to Winston as my politician. I've never rated him. Even when he was an up and coming young Nationsl MP I could see right through his bluff and bluster. But here he is more than 30 years later still going strong. So fair play to him. A masterful politician.

I’d never vote for him either, but he plays the game like no other. I remember him saying dirty politics was a mess and they should have drip fed the information, constantly teasing the nats on what information they were withholding and would release later in the election cycle. He was right, Hagar released it all in a book and large chunks were overlooked. Winnie would’ve absolutely destroyed national with that material.

The comment on him being our politician is simply due to him being a politician of nz like any other. All 120 are our politicians which we selected, one way or another, for the coming three years.

Wilderbeast wrote:I’d never vote for him either, but he plays the game like no other. I remember him saying dirty politics was a mess and they should have drip fed the information, constantly teasing the nats on what information they were withholding and would release later in the election cycle. He was right, Hagar released it all in a book and large chunks were overlooked. Winnie would’ve absolutely destroyed national with that material.

The comment on him being our politician is simply due to him being a politician of nz like any other. All 120 are our politicians which we selected, one way or another, for the coming three years.

He isnt just a politician

He is the one bloke out of 4,600,000 odd people who decided the govt of NZ

That was so obviously going to happen - I couldn't believe it when Little went public with his idea.

I think Winnie will probably have to whistle for any of his stuff to go through now.

the cracks are appearing as NZ First and The Greens try to keep their identity

I’m with Enzedder, cracks are starting to show. Labour seems to think they can govern like National did but they don’t have nearly the numbers to do that. Green members also getting antsy that we haven’t passed every progressive law under the sun and built a statue in Turei’s likeness. I feel for Jacinda. She has proven far more capable than I expected but some of her cabinet are not up to scratch (although I consider Little, who made this error, to be one of the good ones).

For such a prominent campaign policy, you would think repealing the three strikes legislation would have been part of coalition negotiations. If that was the case though and Labour knew NZ First's position, you would think they would have kept quiet and backed slowly away from the proposed change. As things have played out they have either made naive statements or I wonder if NZ First has reneged on an agreement.

JB1981 wrote:For such a prominent campaign policy, you would think repealing the three strikes legislation would have been part of coalition negotiations. If that was the case though and Labour knew NZ First's position, you would think they would have kept quiet and backed slowly away from the proposed change. As things have played out they have either made naive statements or I wonder if NZ First has reneged on an agreement.

Agreed. Badly played by Labour if they didn't have NZ First agreement. They were so proudly trumpeting this a week ago. In fact ...

Paging Eugenius, paging Eugenius ...

booji boy wrote:

JB1981 wrote:For such a prominent campaign policy, you would think repealing the three strikes legislation would have been part of coalition negotiations. If that was the case though and Labour knew NZ First's position, you would think they would have kept quiet and backed slowly away from the proposed change. As things have played out they have either made naive statements or I wonder if NZ First has reneged on an agreement.

Agreed. Badly played by Labour if they didn't have NZ First agreement. They were so proudly trumpeting this a week ago. In fact ...

Paging Eugenius, paging Eugenius ...

Jaw-dropping incompetence in terms of political management from Labour. Farrar's right though that Peters has saved them from themselves. National and the tosspots at the Sensible Sentencing Trust would have killed them as soon as non-3S sentences meant people got raped / bashed / killed.

Re Peters, he's a cancer in our politics.

Seneca of the Night wrote:

Wilderbeast wrote:I’m with Enzedder, cracks are starting to show. Labour seems to think they can govern like National did but they don’t have nearly the numbers to do that. Green members also getting antsy that we haven’t passed every progressive law under the sun and built a statue in Turei’s likeness. I feel for Jacinda. She has proven far more capable than I expected but some of her cabinet are not up to scratch (although I consider Little, who made this error, to be one of the good ones).

It's tempting to feel 'sorry' for Jacinda as she seems to be genuinely nice. However, she is a politician and there's not room for sympathy here. She suffers from delusional misplaced confidence, and it's going to bite her in the arse sooner rather than later. The manner of her ascension is bizarre to say the least, and it's not built on firm enough foundations to last.

She'll be right though, she's on the elevator and her pathway past this job is assured.

There is no need to feel sorry for Jacinda, she timed this perfectly. First session she is away her senior leaders in the Labour caucus are slapped senseless by Winston reinforcing her position and credentials as a leader.

Seneca of the Night wrote:

Wilderbeast wrote:I’m with Enzedder, cracks are starting to show. Labour seems to think they can govern like National did but they don’t have nearly the numbers to do that. Green members also getting antsy that we haven’t passed every progressive law under the sun and built a statue in Turei’s likeness. I feel for Jacinda. She has proven far more capable than I expected but some of her cabinet are not up to scratch (although I consider Little, who made this error, to be one of the good ones).

It's tempting to feel 'sorry' for Jacinda as she seems to be genuinely nice. However, she is a politician and there's not room for sympathy here. She suffers from delusional misplaced confidence, and it's going to bite her in the arse sooner rather than later. The manner of her ascension is bizarre to say the least, and it's not built on firm enough foundations to last.

She'll be right though, she's on the elevator and her pathway past this job is assured.

Agree. The first genuine crisis of government will be very very interesting.

The perplexing thing about this though is that Little is at the centre of it. He is proven politically - a competent union man and he managed to suppress and keep suppressed the poisonous factions in Labour. Quite how he could ever think that this was a good idea politically even if NZ First supported it, and quite how he allowed himself to not ensure the numbers??? It's just mind-blowing.

Seneca of the Night wrote:Funny thing about Peters is that you think back to the Winebox thing, which was, incredibly enough, a quarter of a century ago. I'm not sure if anyone ever really got to the bottom of that.

But on reflection it's amazing the lock that Fay and Richwhite had on the manufacturing of political and public opinion. It seems so obvious now that they were completely out of control and they and their henchmen at Russell McVeagh were rolling a steam roller across the corporate regulatory landscape (what little there was of it).

Peters got painted as a rogue nutcase conspiracy theorist and complete loose cannon. Funnily enough, that's exactly what he was. He was also right though. Which is confusing. Yet here he is, decades later, acting Prime Minister.

I suppose the sensible thing for him to do is send in the army to Great Mercury Island and yank Michael Fay off his lounger and throw him in prison. I wonder if he still bears grudges from that. Or if he even remembers it through the fog.

Fay and Richwhite were effectively black-balled from the international banking community as far as I'm aware though. And their efforts to do business in Europe were always stopped at the door as NZ expats put the word out about what they'd been up to in NZ. Fay got turned down for an Irish passport too.

Yup I was around for that. Wasn't suggesting he's never done anything right or good. He was by all accounts a good foreign minister. It's a bit of a rant of mine but I've had the good fortune to deal with quite a few ministers over the years, from Birch / English / Sowry in the mid 90s though to Mallard / King / Parker in the late 00s. Don't do much of it now though I met Robertson the other day when he come into my work. Came across very well.

Anyhoo... with the single exception of Cunliffe they've given me the impression that they're thoughtful, intelligent people in it for the right reasons. I have clients in AU I've spent most of the last year working for and the contrast can't be clearer, and lordy it'd be great if NZers could actually understand how lucky we are, if it's luck... The sky-high quality of our politicians and political process is a major part of what makes the place work IMO (ranting enough yet??? ).

Peters, who I've only met once, in a Cabinet Committee meeting after the '96 election, is the Australian thing - in it for himself, cynical, manipulating, the whole rotten bag. If his success works as a 'how to' for others, then he's a cancer.

And English wins the prize. Anyone who accuses him of some heartless neo-liberal bollocks or of being a two-time loser or whatever can't have actually even exchanged two sentences with him.

booji boy wrote:

JB1981 wrote:For such a prominent campaign policy, you would think repealing the three strikes legislation would have been part of coalition negotiations. If that was the case though and Labour knew NZ First's position, you would think they would have kept quiet and backed slowly away from the proposed change. As things have played out they have either made naive statements or I wonder if NZ First has reneged on an agreement.

Agreed. Badly played by Labour if they didn't have NZ First agreement. They were so proudly trumpeting this a week ago. In fact ...

Paging Eugenius, paging Eugenius ...

Maybe they did but the terms changed when Winston was told he had to be PM for 6-10 weeks.

It would have been give him leeway or make Kelv' the dumb PM and that would be a car crash waiting to happen

Or they may have just discussed during coalition talks and forgot to include it in writing. Tend to doubt that though. She isn t that stupid

I guess with the details behind the coalition agreement not being deemed "official" so having not been released, it does allow any changes between partners to be kept in house.

JB1981 wrote:I guess with the details behind the coalition agreement not being deemed "official" so having not been released, it does allow any changes if behind between partners to be kept in house.

Hansen would likely call it ‘fluid’

Seneca of the Night wrote:Very weird sensation here in the UK atm. It really does feel like no one is in charge. There are of course many many very talented, capable and successful people in the UK. None of them currently within miles of Whitehall. Be interesting to see how that works out over the long term.

Like most western democracies, the quality of NZ politicians can be very ropey around the edges. But we've done 1 good thing: keep the layers to the bare minimum and had luck with a second: the tight top tier have been pretty competent. I suspect b) follows on from a) a bit as there are no bed blockers to clog up the process.

I've long thought that the secondary effect of Brexit would medium term maybe be as big as the primary effect - that everything else in government is blocked, de-prioritised, stuck in limbo, subject to the politics of Brexit, etc. Then May f**ked the gig by massively misjudging the election, compounding it all. No easy way out either...

The hits just keep coming, yet another pre-election policy or promise goes under the bus and this was quite a big one, the bottled water going overseas one. The Greens are in disarray


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... g-decision

Wow Kelvin Davis is a nightmare

I'm ok with this government... Things are travelling along ok . I don't mind paying some more tax to offset some social changes... As long as I can continue to operate my business at a level to provide for my family .. Staff.. And community.

But by the power of Johnny cash himself this Davis bloke is the dumbest tool in the big round shed . An absolute disgrace for Jacinda and she needs to deep six the bloody moron .https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics ... build.html

Davis is proving my theory that being good in opposition does not equate to being good in govt.

Hareaway wrote:Wow Kelvin Davis is a nightmare

I'm ok with this government... Things are travelling along ok . I don't mind paying some more tax to offset some social changes... As long as I can continue to operate my business at a level to provide for my family .. Staff.. And community.

But by the power of Johnny cash himself this Davis bloke is the dumbest tool in the big round shed . An absolute disgrace for Jacinda and she needs to deep six the bloody moron .https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics ... build.html

I can't quite follow your logic here .

The article clearly spells out the core problem
" The Government has a target of reducing the prison population by 30 percent over 15 years, and planned reform of the justice system will be part of that. Justice Minister Andrew Little has been signalling too many "low-level offenders" are imprisoned while on bail ahead of trial or sentencing. Reform could also mean more people serving home detention instead of prison time."
The rapid growth in the prison population can be directly attributed to the fiddling with the basics of NZ law in the noughties with changes to the Bail & evidence protocols combined with our outdated and totally ineffectual drug laws.

Largely as a result of the frenzy induced by such shadowy organisations like the Sensible sentencing trust.

Big changes are afoot and not before time .

Kelvin is overworked and deliberately so to enable the neo-libs like Robertson & Twyford to continue to set the agenda.

jambanja wrote:The hits just keep coming, yet another pre-election policy or promise goes under the bus and this was quite a big one, the bottled water going overseas one. The Greens are in disarray


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... g-decision

Madness. The Greens apparently don't understand what Ministers do, didn't review the law regarding Ministers' discretion / regulatory authority on a matter where they had a major commitment and the warrant, and didn't lock changes to said into their agreement with Labour.

Complete morons.

TheDocForgotHisLogon wrote:

jambanja wrote:The hits just keep coming, yet another pre-election policy or promise goes under the bus and this was quite a big one, the bottled water going overseas one. The Greens are in disarray


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... g-decision

Madness. The Greens apparently don't understand what Ministers do, didn't review the law regarding Ministers' discretion / regulatory authority on a matter where they had a major commitment and the warrant, and didn't lock changes to said into their agreement with Labour.

Complete morons.

Stuff prints "the greens are disarray" and it becomes an irrefutable fact?

Complete moron not an exclusive club , it would appear.

grouch wrote:

TheDocForgotHisLogon wrote:

jambanja wrote:The hits just keep coming, yet another pre-election policy or promise goes under the bus and this was quite a big one, the bottled water going overseas one. The Greens are in disarray


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... g-decision

Madness. The Greens apparently don't understand what Ministers do, didn't review the law regarding Ministers' discretion / regulatory authority on a matter where they had a major commitment and the warrant, and didn't lock changes to said into their agreement with Labour.

Complete morons.

Stuff prints "the greens are disarray" and it becomes an irrefutable fact?

Complete moron not an exclusive club , it would appear.

Easy, Tiger. Engage on the points.

A Green Minister appears to have been surprised that her authority is limited by law, and / or didn't know the law in her own portfolio, and / or The Greens haven't tried or haven't managed to get that law changed in their agreement with Labour.

What's your take on it?

TheDocForgotHisLogon wrote:

jambanja wrote:The hits just keep coming, yet another pre-election policy or promise goes under the bus and this was quite a big one, the bottled water going overseas one. The Greens are in disarray


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... g-decision

Madness. The Greens apparently don't understand what Ministers do, didn't review the law regarding Ministers' discretion / regulatory authority on a matter where they had a major commitment and the warrant, and didn't lock changes to said into their agreement with Labour.

Complete morons.

The Greens had almost no bargaining power going into the coalition. I'd be surprised if any conditions on the agreement survived being flushed down the toilet

TheDocForgotHisLogon wrote:

jambanja wrote:The hits just keep coming, yet another pre-election policy or promise goes under the bus and this was quite a big one, the bottled water going overseas one. The Greens are in disarray


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... g-decision

Madness. The Greens apparently don't understand what Ministers do, didn't review the law regarding Ministers' discretion / regulatory authority on a matter where they had a major commitment and the warrant, and didn't lock changes to said into their agreement with Labour.

Complete morons.

I thought it’s the party membership who are the ones who don’t understand? The minister seems to perfectly understand what she can and cannot do.