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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:47 am 
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Yeah Bloomfield said that the number of tests carried out on Sunday was lower than usual which in part explains the lower number of cases.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:48 am 
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with all the latest stats, NZ lockdown thread is best lockdown thread 8)


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:49 am 
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533 ventilators in the public health system :uhoh:

Did I hear that right?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:50 am 
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The continued comment on most cases being linked to overseas travel seems arbitrary given the bias of the case definition meaning testing is much more likely when there is a travel link.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:50 am 
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Auckman wrote:
with all the latest stats, NZ lockdown thread is best lockdown thread 8)


New Zealand lockdown is best lockdown per capita :thumbup:

I have no idea what that means.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:54 am 
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Bit concerned reading stories like the bloke that had a hard time getting tested though he was genuinely ill.
People know when they're genuinely sick right? I mean I don't go to the doctor until I have genuine man-flu and think I'm going to die, outside broken bones in my youth.

At this stage, if you feel you're genuinely sick you should be tested right?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:55 am 
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JB1981 wrote:
The continued comment on most cases being linked to overseas travel seems arbitrary given the bias of the case definition meaning testing is much more likely when there is a travel link.

I didn't see the live feed. Did anybody ask that question?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:55 am 
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Flockwitt wrote:
JB1981 wrote:
The continued comment on most cases being linked to overseas travel seems arbitrary given the bias of the case definition meaning testing is much more likely when there is a travel link.

I didn't see the live feed. Did anybody ask that question?


not yet


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:59 am 
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Ashley Bloomfield, Director-General of Health, is doing a great job with daily communications.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:07 am 
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Flockwitt wrote:
And means even less if they're not doing enough testing as noted. Still it is better than the other direction for sure.


12,000 tests done so far.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:07 am 
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J Man wrote:
Flockwitt wrote:
JB1981 wrote:
The continued comment on most cases being linked to overseas travel seems arbitrary given the bias of the case definition meaning testing is much more likely when there is a travel link.

I didn't see the live feed. Did anybody ask that question?


not yet

So my takeaways were from the 14th it was completely discretionary who the clinics tested but the govt hadn't revised the recommendations which they are now doing... probably been a few situations where clinics fell back on the government directives where they felt there could be a potential shortage.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:08 am 
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I like jacinda but she's become a bit idiotic in the last few days.
"State of emergency increased for a week". Stop confusing people! Now almost everyone thinks the lockdown has been increased by a week!
Just wanna be smart politician words. Let's not get politically correct like trump supporters or the hardcore intolerant, PC national supporters.

Keep it real. Doing a good job so far.

Although she made another stupid statement of passing food to your neighbors yesterday. Wtf!!! Might as well tell ppl to party.

But overall we are doing well, whenever you see psychotic outsiders like Seneca get jealous and make excuses of why we did good we know we are doing good.

Well done guys!


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:13 am 
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Tuivasa wrote:
I like jacinda but she's become a bit idiotic in the last few days.
"State of emergency increased for a week". Stop confusing people! Now almost everyone thinks the lockdown has been increased by a week!
Just wanna be smart politician words. Let's not get politically correct like trump supporters or the hardcore intolerant, PC national supporters.

Keep it real. Doing a good job so far.

Although she made another stupid statement of passing food to your neighbors yesterday. Wtf!!! Might as well tell ppl to party.

Get used to it. They've specifically stated the State of Emergency will be renewed on a weekly basis as required. Which is reasonable if considered. We don't want to think the government is arbitrarily using this highly citizen rights restrictive power at a whim or for any longer than necessary.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:37 am 
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Potential Health Impacts from the COVID-19 Pandemic for New Zealand if Eradication Fails:

Report to the NZ Ministry of Health dated 23 March 2020.

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files ... _final.pdf

Quote:
Abstract

Aims: While New Zealand may hopefully succeed with its current eradication strategy for COVID-19, this modelling aimed to considered the health outcomes if this strategy fails.

Methods: A SEIR model designed for COVID-19 (CovidSIM) was adapted and utilised. It was populated with NZ demographic data and relevant parameters sourced from the international literature. Different scenarios varied the basic reproduction number (R0) and levels of disease control, and involved threshold analyses for controls to push the epidemic peak into the next year (ie, a point where a vaccine might become available).

Results: We found that it would be relatively easy to push some epidemic curves into the subsequent year (ie, for R0 = 1.5). This would be harder for the more plausible R0 = 2.5 scenarios, but still potentially feasible eg, via over 41% of “general contact reduction” for nine months, combined with over 50% of cases having hospital isolation for nine months. When considering the two highest levels of R0 (2.5 and 3.5), and the two levels of “general contact reduction” (at 25% for six months and 50% for nine months), the estimated health impacts were: 44% to 64% of the population sick; 18% to 26% seeking a medical consultation (including Healthline and internet consultations); 22,200 to 32,000 people needing to be hospitalised; 5,540 to 8,000 people needing critical care (in an intensive care unit [ICU]); 2,770 to 4000 requiring ventilators; and 8560 to 14,400 dying (0.17% to 0.29% of the population). On the worst day for the worst scenario (R0 = 3.5, 25% contact reduction), there would be 11,200 people needing to be hospitalised and 2,800 needing to be admitted to critical care. For this scenario ICU capacity would be full on day 92, at a very early point in the epidemic curve. Such demands are unprecedented in New Zealand’s history and unless there was a major reconfiguration of services, would be overwhelming, with a risk of this pushing up the case fatality rate. The mortality burden would almost certainly be much higher in older age-groups (eg, 89% of the deaths estimated to be in the 60+ age-group), and also would probably be patterned by ethnicity (higher for Māori and Pacific peoples), and for people living in deprived areas.

Conclusions: If New Zealand fails with its current eradication strategy toward COVID-19, then health outcomes for New Zealand could be very severe. If interventions were intense enough however, in some scenarios the epidemic peak could still be suppressed or pushed out to the following year (at which time a vaccine may be available). Due to the high levels of uncertainty with some of the parameters used in this modelling work, it should be regularly repeated as new information on the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 become available.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:53 am 
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Tehui wrote:
Updated.

Quote:
Actual stats in blue

Day 1 - 287
Day 2 - 359 - 368 - 81 (28%)
Day 3 - 449 - 451 - 83 (23%)
Day 4 - 561 - 514 - 63 (14%)
Day 5 - 702 - 589 - 76 (15%)
Day 6 - 878 - 647 - 58 (10%)
Day 7 - 1,098
Day 8 - 1,373
Day 9 - 1,716
Day 10 - 2,145


Someone break out their excel skillz and do us a graph. Early days, but it does appear to be only going one way.

Is there a chance there's a terrible/large cluster somewhere in the country that the government doesn't know about?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:06 am 
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Jeff the Bear wrote:
Tehui wrote:
Updated.

Quote:
Actual stats in blue

Day 1 - 287
Day 2 - 359 - 368 - 81 (28%)
Day 3 - 449 - 451 - 83 (23%)
Day 4 - 561 - 514 - 63 (14%)
Day 5 - 702 - 589 - 76 (15%)
Day 6 - 878 - 647 - 58 (10%)
Day 7 - 1,098
Day 8 - 1,373
Day 9 - 1,716
Day 10 - 2,145


Someone break out their excel skillz and do us a graph. Early days, but it does appear to be only going one way.

Is there a chance there's a terrible/large cluster somewhere in the country that the government doesn't know about?


There’s a large known cluster at a Marist school in AKL. I imagine plenty of close contacts there as yet untested actually have it


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:10 am 
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booji boy wrote:
Yeah Bloomfield said that the number of tests carried out on Sunday was lower than usual which in part explains the lower number of cases.


Was that because fewer people presented who fitted the criteria for testing?

The criteria does seem a bit off though as others have mentioned. If we have the capacity we should be testing anyone with even a low likelihood of actually having it. I think that's how South Korea manged to achieve their outcome, although they probably have much more testing capacity then we do.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:13 am 
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JB1981 wrote:
The continued comment on most cases being linked to overseas travel seems arbitrary given the bias of the case definition meaning testing is much more likely when there is a travel link.


This is a good point.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:20 am 
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Something that is annoying is the softly softly approach that the cops seem to betaking with lockdown violations. People being arrested for multiple breaches being let go with a warning. 60 people at a covid party in Queenstown. Some guy in Invercargill. The kids who have been at the local skateboard bowl every day so far.

FFS, If they are going to have the lockdown, then enforce it. There is no excuse for being out for no good reason. Not doing so just enables the idiots and prolongs the lockdown. Should be minimum $1000
fine, payable by parents if kids are caught.

At the moment it is a joke.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:25 am 
Jacinda doing very well with this broadcast .

(Dunno who the red head is on TV One before , far too much hyperventilate. )

Enough already !


Last edited by eugenius on Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:26 am 
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Jeff the Bear wrote:
Tehui wrote:
Updated.

Quote:
Actual stats in blue

Day 1 - 287
Day 2 - 359 - 368 - 81 (28%)
Day 3 - 449 - 451 - 83 (23%)
Day 4 - 561 - 514 - 63 (14%)
Day 5 - 702 - 589 - 76 (15%)
Day 6 - 878 - 647 - 58 (10%)
Day 7 - 1,098
Day 8 - 1,373
Day 9 - 1,716
Day 10 - 2,145


Someone break out their excel skillz and do us a graph. Early days, but it does appear to be only going one way.

Is there a chance there's a terrible/large cluster somewhere in the country that the government doesn't know about?


I know how to develop graphs, but I don't know how to throw it into PR. There is a graph on the wikipedia website, but I don't think it can be copied and pasted across. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... ew_Zealand

Yes, there's a chance that there's a cluster somewhere. People don't usually develop symptoms for up to 14 day past the initial infection, so there could potentially be a cluster developing that hasn't surfaced yet. Once we get 14 days into the lock down period the chances of a cluster developing decrease substantially, though it could always come up in one of the essential service areas.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:44 am 
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Fat Old Git wrote:
booji boy wrote:
Yeah Bloomfield said that the number of tests carried out on Sunday was lower than usual which in part explains the lower number of cases.


Was that because fewer people presented who fitted the criteria for testing?

The criteria does seem a bit off though as others have mentioned. If we have the capacity we should be testing anyone with even a low likelihood of actually having it. I think that's how South Korea manged to achieve their outcome, although they probably have much more testing capacity then we do.


Can't remember his exact words but the gist is that there were not as many medical staff doing the tests on Sunday. About 1300 tests carried out vs the usual 1700. Basically less staff on like most 'normal' businesses/hospitals on a Sunday. Even in a pandemic people need a day off I guess? :uhoh:

Edit: Actually these are his actual words:

I have no sense that this is a drop [in cases] overall - the number of cases may reflect lower numbers in [testing] on Sunday in particular," Dr Bloomfield said. He believes the reduced number of tests is due to less people going to community-based assessment centres for swabbing and the limited availability of couriers on Sunday.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:49 am 
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booji boy wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
booji boy wrote:
Yeah Bloomfield said that the number of tests carried out on Sunday was lower than usual which in part explains the lower number of cases.


Was that because fewer people presented who fitted the criteria for testing?

The criteria does seem a bit off though as others have mentioned. If we have the capacity we should be testing anyone with even a low likelihood of actually having it. I think that's how South Korea manged to achieve their outcome, although they probably have much more testing capacity then we do.


Can't remember his exact words but the gist is that there were not as many medical staff doing the tests on Sunday. About 1300 tests carried out vs the usual 1700. Basically less staff on like most 'normal' businesses/hospitals on a Sunday. Even in a pandemic people need a day off I guess? :uhoh:

Also the number of couriers available to deliver the tests was a problem.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:52 am 
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booji boy wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
booji boy wrote:
Yeah Bloomfield said that the number of tests carried out on Sunday was lower than usual which in part explains the lower number of cases.


Was that because fewer people presented who fitted the criteria for testing?

The criteria does seem a bit off though as others have mentioned. If we have the capacity we should be testing anyone with even a low likelihood of actually having it. I think that's how South Korea manged to achieve their outcome, although they probably have much more testing capacity then we do.


Can't remember his exact words but the gist is that there were not as many medical staff doing the tests on Sunday. About 1300 tests carried out vs the usual 1700. Basically less staff on like most 'normal' businesses/hospitals on a Sunday. Even in a pandemic people need a day off I guess? :uhoh:

Edit: Actually these are his actual words:

I have no sense that this is a drop [in cases] overall - the number of cases may reflect lower numbers in [testing] on Sunday in particular," Dr Bloomfield said. He believes the reduced number of tests is due to less people going to community-based assessment centres for swabbing and the limited availability of couriers on Sunday.


Thanks. We could be in for a spike then.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:54 am 
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BillW wrote:
booji boy wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
booji boy wrote:
Yeah Bloomfield said that the number of tests carried out on Sunday was lower than usual which in part explains the lower number of cases.


Was that because fewer people presented who fitted the criteria for testing?

The criteria does seem a bit off though as others have mentioned. If we have the capacity we should be testing anyone with even a low likelihood of actually having it. I think that's how South Korea manged to achieve their outcome, although they probably have much more testing capacity then we do.


Can't remember his exact words but the gist is that there were not as many medical staff doing the tests on Sunday. About 1300 tests carried out vs the usual 1700. Basically less staff on like most 'normal' businesses/hospitals on a Sunday. Even in a pandemic people need a day off I guess? :uhoh:

Also the number of couriers available to deliver the tests was a problem.


Yep edited my original post. :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:19 am 
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Ted. wrote:
Flockwitt wrote:
And means even less if they're not doing enough testing as noted. Still it is better than the other direction for sure.


12,000 tests done so far.


Unfortunately there only seems to be 12001 swabs in the whole country


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:22 am 
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Some frightening stuff from Mrs Enz just now. The hospital here is down to just 210 beds out of 600 in use as they prepare for the wave to hit. That's a whole lot of sick people sent home I reckon.

Even more frightening, she mentioned that they are building a temporary morgue to increase their capacity there.

Sounds like shit is about to get real - or someone is making sure that they are as ready as they can be.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:26 am 
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Enzedder wrote:
Some frightening stuff from Mrs Enz just now. The hospital here is down to just 210 beds out of 600 in use as they prepare for the wave to hit. That's a whole lot of sick people sent home I reckon.

Even more frightening, she mentioned that they are building a temporary morgue to increase their capacity there.

Sounds like shit is about to get real - or someone is making sure that they are as ready as they can be.


Hopefully the latter.

They're trying to fast track the new Christchurch Hospital's ICU which was originally due to open in 2018 and seems to have had issue after issue pushing the date back. Hopefully that gives The CDHB some contingency. The West coast also has a new Hospital they are supposed to be moving into. I was there a month or so ago and apparently it's pretty much ready but the lawyers are arguing over something.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:26 am 
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Enzedder wrote:
Some frightening stuff from Mrs Enz just now. The hospital here is down to just 210 beds out of 600 in use as they prepare for the wave to hit. That's a whole lot of sick people sent home I reckon.

Even more frightening, she mentioned that they are building a temporary morgue to increase their capacity there.

Sounds like shit is about to get real - or someone is making sure that they are as ready as they can be.


Wow so despite the lockdown they're expecting this to go tits up like Italy, Spain, UK, US etc?


Hopefully it's just precautionary. :uhoh:


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:38 am 
Only approach to take me-thinks .


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:45 am 
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booji boy wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
booji boy wrote:
Yeah Bloomfield said that the number of tests carried out on Sunday was lower than usual which in part explains the lower number of cases.


Was that because fewer people presented who fitted the criteria for testing?

The criteria does seem a bit off though as others have mentioned. If we have the capacity we should be testing anyone with even a low likelihood of actually having it. I think that's how South Korea manged to achieve their outcome, although they probably have much more testing capacity then we do.


Can't remember his exact words but the gist is that there were not as many medical staff doing the tests on Sunday. About 1300 tests carried out vs the usual 1700. Basically less staff on like most 'normal' businesses/hospitals on a Sunday. Even in a pandemic people need a day off I guess? :uhoh:

Edit: Actually these are his actual words:

I have no sense that this is a drop [in cases] overall - the number of cases may reflect lower numbers in [testing] on Sunday in particular," Dr Bloomfield said. He believes the reduced number of tests is due to less people going to community-based assessment centres for swabbing and the limited availability of couriers on Sunday.


My niece is one of the boss nurses at Greenlane, has been doing 12 hour shifts, 6 days a week for the past few weeks preparing staff and facilities for this. She is buggered. I´d say that would be true for all of the medics out there.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:49 am 
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eugenius wrote:
Only approach to take me-thinks .



If the shit really hits the fan the alternative is triaging over-70s out of medical care, and ordering compulsory cremation of the dead within 24 hrs.

Would not be a popular move with the grey-haired hegemony that control NZ


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:49 am 
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Tehui's Data Graph

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:52 am 
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You should plot it as a rate of change


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:52 am 
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Fat Old Git wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
Some frightening stuff from Mrs Enz just now. The hospital here is down to just 210 beds out of 600 in use as they prepare for the wave to hit. That's a whole lot of sick people sent home I reckon.

Even more frightening, she mentioned that they are building a temporary morgue to increase their capacity there.

Sounds like shit is about to get real - or someone is making sure that they are as ready as they can be.


Hopefully the latter.

They're trying to fast track the new Christchurch Hospital's ICU which was originally due to open in 2018 and seems to have had issue after issue pushing the date back. Hopefully that gives The CDHB some contingency. The West coast also has a new Hospital they are supposed to be moving into. I was there a month or so ago and apparently it's pretty much ready but the lawyers are arguing over something.


Two of my nephews are specialists in installing, maintaining and testing all the sterilization gear in NZ hospitals, they go all over the country. There are only 3 or 4 people qualified to do that. They have spent quite a bit of time in ChCh getting that place up and running. Don´t get to see their families in Akl.

Then we see tossers throwing covid parties...


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:55 am 
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deadduck wrote:
eugenius wrote:
Only approach to take me-thinks .



If the shit really hits the fan the alternative is triaging over-70s out of medical care, and ordering compulsory cremation of the dead within 24 hrs.

Would not be a popular move with the grey-haired hegemony that control NZ


Is that also required to stop the spread?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:57 am 
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deadduck wrote:
eugenius wrote:
Only approach to take me-thinks .



If the shit really hits the fan the alternative is triaging over-70s out of medical care, and ordering compulsory cremation of the dead within 24 hrs.

Would not be a popular move with the grey-haired hegemony that control NZ


I´ll go along with that, as long as I can take a millenial with me...


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:58 am 
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booji boy wrote:
deadduck wrote:
eugenius wrote:
Only approach to take me-thinks .



If the shit really hits the fan the alternative is triaging over-70s out of medical care, and ordering compulsory cremation of the dead within 24 hrs.

Would not be a popular move with the grey-haired hegemony that control NZ


Is that also required to stop the spread?



No it's to prevent the morgue filling up and bodies remaining in people's homes for ages


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:42 am 
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Tehui wrote:
UncleFB wrote:
Man In Black wrote:
Why do we have to have Muttonbird back? Is there some coronavirus rule that means people who suck are now ok to post again? Who next, Quentin Poulsen?

We need utu in the forum man, Harvey and Dark have been off the res lately.


Family Group conference? You volunteering as facilitator?

I'll do it my old Nan's style, just bang all their heads together.

MiB: Probably not, you couldn't keep Harvey in check (well either of the Harveys) and he used to be a not unhinged poster - I doubt I can keep Muttonbird in check in the slightest.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:43 am 
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Tehui's Stats - Mark 2

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