NZ Politics Thread

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Anonymous 1
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Anonymous 1 »

Wilderbeast wrote:Was talking to the wife about it. Basically comes down to one of the following:

Level 3 tomorrow, as the economy has been hit hard and a 1-2 week increase on level 4 will hit it that much harder. Level 3 is still tough but allows a lot more businesses to function at some level.

1 week extension, as the Government doesn't trust NZers to behave over ANZAC weekend.

2 week extension to keep in the cycles the Government and health professionals have been discussing.

I think/hope there is a list they need to satisfy before hitting level 3. I.e. all new cases for the last week relating to known clusters, capacity to contact trace new cases within a set time, and extensive capacity to test everyone (to allow them to continue the random testing they have been doing). If we don't meet any of this, then we extend.
It wouldn't be that they don't trust you kiwi slags in particular. it's more a case of general human nature.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Jeff the Bear »

Ted. wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:I reckon we're going to Level 3. We should have a sweepstake.

Given that they've completed those randomised testing at supermarkets, and came up with nothing, it surely proved that there aren't randoms out there in the community with it. As such, the track and trace process is working. Why not open up to the new Level 3, which in reality is just a mildly watered down Level 4.
Just saying, but someone not a million miles from here mentioned that very same idea about 15 or 20 pages back. :nod:
Yeah, but when I suggest it, people listen. :thumbup:
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by JB1981 »

I like Ted’s idea of a sweepstake.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by deadduck »

Why is there this perception that elimination can only occur at level 4?

All we need for elimination to be inevitable is to maintain the R value <1 and that may well be possible at level 3 or even 2.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Enzedder »

To visit one of my friends accross the city my best bus option is a out 90 minutes and several changes, vs 20 in the car.
Trains are never good for a door to door option. However, if even 50% can get to work via a train its a superb option (in Wellington they have combined the two well (until recently) so it can be done)
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by brat »

blackblackblack wrote:
Auckman wrote:
blackblackblack wrote:
Auckman wrote:I hope it is extended by 2 more weeks then level 3 for a fortnight reviewable like GON said. NZF is clearly wanting it to go down to level 3 though.
I would also like to see it stay at 4 for another 2 weeks because it will piss off Hosking and Heather DP-A, purely for teh lols that one. We've done 4 weeks in lockdown, we can do another 2 in our sleep.
Haven't kept up to date with Hosking and co lately but I saw a meme floating around where he seems to have changed his mind every week just so he can attack whatever the govt is doing. :lol:
Same as it ever was under a labour led government with that twat. Still, when you remember that he's only really there to fill the space between the ad breaks with as much pavlovian shite as possible to keep the mouth breathers listening you realise he is rather good at his job as a shill.
Yep he’s still the most popular breakfast show host in nz by a massive margin, I think he’s a bit of a twat but he’s good at his job
I love the way his articles wind people up online - telling him to bugger off whatever..they seem to be completely obvious to the fact that the more they interact the more likely he is to be around long term online..they’re completely obsessed by him, so much anger and vitriol it’s hilarious

I’m not sure everyone can do 2 weeks in their sleep, especially small business owners - another 2 weeks will send some into near liquidation.. it’s easy to say when your financial future isn’t on the line
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

Is it worth reposting this?

Image

Care of Enz, some pages back.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by brat »

deadduck wrote:Why is there this perception that elimination can only occur at level 4?

All we need for elimination to be inevitable is to maintain the R value <1 and that may well be possible at level 3 or even 2.
A big issue is that people don’t understand the difference between elimination and eradication.. and somehow think everything will be ok even if we do manage to eliminate it - doesn’t help that the media don’t understand either and use the terms interchangeably
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

jdogscoop wrote:
Wilderbeast wrote:
jdogscoop wrote:Looks like a poorly thought out, expensive, pie in the sky proposal to me.

Classic Greens.
Why do you think it’s poorly thought out? Have you seen any detail on this?
I read that article that Chloe Swarbrick linked to on Twitter.
Commendable speed, Jdog. :thumbup:
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

Jeff the Bear wrote:
Ted. wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:I reckon we're going to Level 3. We should have a sweepstake.

Given that they've completed those randomised testing at supermarkets, and came up with nothing, it surely proved that there aren't randoms out there in the community with it. As such, the track and trace process is working. Why not open up to the new Level 3, which in reality is just a mildly watered down Level 4.
Just saying, but someone not a million miles from here mentioned that very same idea about 15 or 20 pages back. :nod:
Yeah, but when I suggest it, people listen. :thumbup:

Ooh, get you.


JB, the one without a "t", you've brought a tear to my eye. :)
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Enzedder »

Just got this from an ex-friend on Facebook :P

(Hope it comes u for you guys)

Image
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by guy smiley »

Sounds more like a farmer.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Fat Old Git »

Enzedder wrote:
To visit one of my friends accross the city my best bus option is a out 90 minutes and several changes, vs 20 in the car.
Trains are never good for a door to door option. However, if even 50% can get to work via a train its a superb option (in Wellington they have combined the two well (until recently) so it can be done)
Wellington's geography has helped it overcome the relatively low population density that is the norm in NZ. Much of it is spread out in a series long relatively narrow stripes of land (The Hutt Valley for example) that are perfect for a train line down the middle as much of the population, and their workplaces, are relatively close to the line and the most common avenues of travel also match that line.

It can obviously work in places with less helpful geography, but it needs a more extensive system to make it competitive enough to compete with the convenience of a car. It doesn't need to be as good, just not so poor that it gets dismissed as an unrealistic option (such as allowing 3 hours for travelling to and from my friends place in the example above).

The common theme I've seen in places where that works well (all overseas) has been a much higher population density. I'm not sure how we overcome that here without either making it really expensive, or heavily subsidizing it's use. Smaller buses for some routes or times perhaps, although we have a number of those here in Christchurch already and for most of us it hasn't made any difference.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Enzedder »

guy smiley wrote:Sounds more like a farmer.
No, an ex-cop - part of the original Turangi Vice
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by BillW »

What has been the infection rate among supermarket checkout operators?

If it is zero or negligible in that particularly vulnerable group, then that would indicate that it would be an acceptable risk to allow some other other retail outlets and workers with lesser public contact, to return to work. (practising safe distancing, ppe etc.)
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by guy smiley »

We’ve got an ex cop from Tokoroa here at work, as it happens... but I was referring to the meme.



As for trains... I lived in Perth for years. Urban sprawl right up the wazoo. 200km from north to south, about 1-1.5million people. Several arterial train lines running in a sort of x pattern that have consistently got busier and busier over 20 years since a conservative govt tried to say a new train line wouldn’t work. What is needed to complement this trains is small high frequency bus services running across those lines to connect the service void in between.

That is the problem with most transit planning... not matching complementary services to serve need.

NZs main centres could do it but it would mean also discouraging private vehicle use within the service area. That means charging. People just don’t like change... then they look back 20 years and realise it happens anyway.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

Is this a goer in NZ?
'A level playing field': Digital giants will have to pay for news in Australia
Making Facebook, Google, Apple et al pay up for news.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Enzedder »

But the media companies have Facebook accounts to direct readers to their sites.

Shouldn't they pay for that - or do they?
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

Fat Old Git wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
To visit one of my friends accross the city my best bus option is a out 90 minutes and several changes, vs 20 in the car.
Trains are never good for a door to door option. However, if even 50% can get to work via a train its a superb option (in Wellington they have combined the two well (until recently) so it can be done)
Wellington's geography has helped it overcome the relatively low population density that is the norm in NZ. Much of it is spread out in a series long relatively narrow stripes of land (The Hutt Valley for example) that are perfect for a train line down the middle as much of the population, and their workplaces, are relatively close to the line and the most common avenues of travel also match that line.

It can obviously work in places with less helpful geography, but it needs a more extensive system to make it competitive enough to compete with the convenience of a car. It doesn't need to be as good, just not so poor that it gets dismissed as an unrealistic option (such as allowing 3 hours for travelling to and from my friends place in the example above).

The common theme I've seen in places where that works well (all overseas) has been a much higher population density. I'm not sure how we overcome that here without either making it really expensive, or heavily subsidizing it's use. Smaller buses for some routes or times perhaps, although we have a number of those here in Christchurch already and for most of us it hasn't made any difference.
ChCh had their big chance, but blew it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_city_movement
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

Enzedder wrote:But the media companies have Facebook accounts to direct readers to their sites.

Shouldn't they pay for that - or do they?

Yes, Facebook and Google have business versions. I'm not sure how much it costs, though I pay Google a little bit for more cloud space. Not sure about the others, Twitter, Instagram, etc.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by guy smiley »

Ted. wrote:Is this a goer in NZ?
'A level playing field': Digital giants will have to pay for news in Australia
Making Facebook, Google, Apple et al pay up for news.
On the face of it making them pay for content is a no brainer. This is the Australian govt though... looking after their friends and benefactors interests... they do mention ‘trusted news sources’ while referring to the usual cohort of supporting heavyweights.

From Crikey...
COVID-19 ACCELERATES INTERVENTION IN SOCIAL-TRADITIONAL MEDIA REVENUE WAR
In a move federal ministers say has been accelerated by the pandemic-induced collapse in media advertising, the ABC reports that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has been ordered to develop a mandatory code of conduct between tech giants such as Facebook and Google and news media companies.
While the ACCC’s negotiations over a voluntary code were meant to run until November, the competition watchdog warned that voluntary measures were unlikely to be agreed to. Already, the move has been welcomed by The Australian’s Editor-At-Large Paul Kelly.
PS: The move follows last week’s announcement of a package including $50 million for regional journalism, 12-month waiver of spectrum tax and a suspension of content quotas, as well as $150 million in support through NBN Co announced last Friday.
PPS: The federal government, however, refused earlier this month to reverse funding cuts to the ABC despite increased bushfire and pandemic coverage.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Fat Old Git »

Ted. wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
To visit one of my friends accross the city my best bus option is a out 90 minutes and several changes, vs 20 in the car.
Trains are never good for a door to door option. However, if even 50% can get to work via a train its a superb option (in Wellington they have combined the two well (until recently) so it can be done)
Wellington's geography has helped it overcome the relatively low population density that is the norm in NZ. Much of it is spread out in a series long relatively narrow stripes of land (The Hutt Valley for example) that are perfect for a train line down the middle as much of the population, and their workplaces, are relatively close to the line and the most common avenues of travel also match that line.

It can obviously work in places with less helpful geography, but it needs a more extensive system to make it competitive enough to compete with the convenience of a car. It doesn't need to be as good, just not so poor that it gets dismissed as an unrealistic option (such as allowing 3 hours for travelling to and from my friends place in the example above).

The common theme I've seen in places where that works well (all overseas) has been a much higher population density. I'm not sure how we overcome that here without either making it really expensive, or heavily subsidizing it's use. Smaller buses for some routes or times perhaps, although we have a number of those here in Christchurch already and for most of us it hasn't made any difference.
ChCh had their big chance, but blew it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_city_movement
Interesting article. :thumbup:

Not sure it really shows Christchurch blew it, but interesting to imagine what the city might be like if it had been completely built on that model originally though. Nice that they have a home for the inebriates in the plan!


Spoiler: show
Image
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

Fat Old Git wrote:
Ted. wrote:
Fat Old Git wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
To visit one of my friends accross the city my best bus option is a out 90 minutes and several changes, vs 20 in the car.
Trains are never good for a door to door option. However, if even 50% can get to work via a train its a superb option (in Wellington they have combined the two well (until recently) so it can be done)
Wellington's geography has helped it overcome the relatively low population density that is the norm in NZ. Much of it is spread out in a series long relatively narrow stripes of land (The Hutt Valley for example) that are perfect for a train line down the middle as much of the population, and their workplaces, are relatively close to the line and the most common avenues of travel also match that line.

It can obviously work in places with less helpful geography, but it needs a more extensive system to make it competitive enough to compete with the convenience of a car. It doesn't need to be as good, just not so poor that it gets dismissed as an unrealistic option (such as allowing 3 hours for travelling to and from my friends place in the example above).

The common theme I've seen in places where that works well (all overseas) has been a much higher population density. I'm not sure how we overcome that here without either making it really expensive, or heavily subsidizing it's use. Smaller buses for some routes or times perhaps, although we have a number of those here in Christchurch already and for most of us it hasn't made any difference.
ChCh had their big chance, but blew it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_city_movement
Interesting article. :thumbup:

Not sure it really shows Christchurch blew it, but interesting to imagine what the city might be like if it had been completely built on that model originally though. Nice that they have a home for the inebriates in the plan!


Spoiler: show
Image
You chose the correct model. :thumbup:

Interesting title though, don't you think?

And yes, ChCh would have needed a much bigger bulldozer to enact that plan.
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Ted.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Ted. »

guy smiley wrote:
Ted. wrote:Is this a goer in NZ?
'A level playing field': Digital giants will have to pay for news in Australia
Making Facebook, Google, Apple et al pay up for news.
On the face of it making them pay for content is a no brainer. This is the Australian govt though... looking after their friends and benefactors interests... they do mention ‘trusted news sources’ while referring to the usual cohort of supporting heavyweights.

From Crikey...
COVID-19 ACCELERATES INTERVENTION IN SOCIAL-TRADITIONAL MEDIA REVENUE WAR
In a move federal ministers say has been accelerated by the pandemic-induced collapse in media advertising, the ABC reports that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has been ordered to develop a mandatory code of conduct between tech giants such as Facebook and Google and news media companies.
While the ACCC’s negotiations over a voluntary code were meant to run until November, the competition watchdog warned that voluntary measures were unlikely to be agreed to. Already, the move has been welcomed by The Australian’s Editor-At-Large Paul Kelly.
PS: The move follows last week’s announcement of a package including $50 million for regional journalism, 12-month waiver of spectrum tax and a suspension of content quotas, as well as $150 million in support through NBN Co announced last Friday.
PPS: The federal government, however, refused earlier this month to reverse funding cuts to the ABC despite increased bushfire and pandemic coverage.
Jobs for the boys, is it.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Maniototo Man »

Enzedder wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:I reckon we're going to Level 3. We should have a sweepstake.

Given that they've completed those randomised testing at supermarkets, and came up with nothing, it surely proved that there aren't randoms out there in the community with it. As such, the track and trace process is working. Why not open up to the new Level 3, which in reality is just a mildly watered down Level 4.
I reckon we hold off until 27th April.
I've got the 28th in our family sweep. I think ANZAC Day is Mondayised so I'm going for the Tuesday.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Fat Old Git »

Ted. wrote:
You chose the correct model. :thumbup:

Interesting title though, don't you think?

And yes, ChCh would have needed a much bigger bulldozer to enact that plan.
Yep, very interesting. And it does mention the following
Garden city ideals were employed in the original town planning of Christchurch, New Zealand.
Which explains the number of parks and green spaces.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Fat Old Git »

Maniototo Man wrote:
Enzedder wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:I reckon we're going to Level 3. We should have a sweepstake.

Given that they've completed those randomised testing at supermarkets, and came up with nothing, it surely proved that there aren't randoms out there in the community with it. As such, the track and trace process is working. Why not open up to the new Level 3, which in reality is just a mildly watered down Level 4.
I reckon we hold off until 27th April.
I've got the 28th in our family sweep. I think ANZAC Day is Mondayised so I'm going for the Tuesday.
I'm guessing extend level 4 for a week (until Thursday 30th), with a decision on moving to Level three or extending for a further week on the 28th.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Muttonbirds »

Interesting comments from a High School Principal:
I think that one of the things that has made New Zealand's Covid-19 response so successful thus far has been our trust that the Government, and particularly Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, has had our backs.

Until now we have had the sense that we have been doing this for the greater good and that we are all in this together. That has been at the heart of the Prime Minister's moral authority to lead us.

As an educator in a tightly-knit low-decile community, I'm immensely concerned about the contradictory and shifting advice on alert level 3. I worry that it puts this goodwill, and the successful Covid-19 response it has driven, at risk.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12325897

Fascinating social comment there that L4 involves all being in this together and that L3 erodes that unity. It prioritises those who are lucky enough to work in industries which come out of restriction and also places a greater number of people in harms way.

At L3 we will no longer be in this together.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Jeff the Bear »

Muttonbirds wrote:Interesting comments from a High School Principal:
I think that one of the things that has made New Zealand's Covid-19 response so successful thus far has been our trust that the Government, and particularly Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, has had our backs.

Until now we have had the sense that we have been doing this for the greater good and that we are all in this together. That has been at the heart of the Prime Minister's moral authority to lead us.

As an educator in a tightly-knit low-decile community, I'm immensely concerned about the contradictory and shifting advice on alert level 3. I worry that it puts this goodwill, and the successful Covid-19 response it has driven, at risk.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12325897

Fascinating social comment there that L4 involves all being in this together and that L3 erodes that unity. It prioritises those who are lucky enough to work in industries which come out of restriction and also places a greater number of people in harms way.

At L3 we will no longer be in this together.
On a slightly different tack (but keeping the theme of L4 or L3), anecdotal evidence suggests to me that people are already entering L3. I live near a forest with walking tracks, and prior to the lockdown, people would park up and go for walks after work. Some did it so often that I got to remember their cars. This weekend, while taking my boys out for a little trek, I saw those cars parked up again.

Furthermore, one of my guys that I talked to this morning lives in one of the beach communities south of Whangarei, and he said that on his weekend run along the beach, that all car parks that service the beach (3 of them), were full.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by TheDocForgotHisLogon »

It'll be brilliant seeing full-strength NPC teams playing over the winter. Wayyyy better than a local soup comp.

And a five-match North / South series.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by obelixtim »

Jeff the Bear wrote:
Muttonbirds wrote:Interesting comments from a High School Principal:
I think that one of the things that has made New Zealand's Covid-19 response so successful thus far has been our trust that the Government, and particularly Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, has had our backs.

Until now we have had the sense that we have been doing this for the greater good and that we are all in this together. That has been at the heart of the Prime Minister's moral authority to lead us.

As an educator in a tightly-knit low-decile community, I'm immensely concerned about the contradictory and shifting advice on alert level 3. I worry that it puts this goodwill, and the successful Covid-19 response it has driven, at risk.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12325897

Fascinating social comment there that L4 involves all being in this together and that L3 erodes that unity. It prioritises those who are lucky enough to work in industries which come out of restriction and also places a greater number of people in harms way.

At L3 we will no longer be in this together.
On a slightly different tack (but keeping the theme of L4 or L3), anecdotal evidence suggests to me that people are already entering L3. I live near a forest with walking tracks, and prior to the lockdown, people would park up and go for walks after work. Some did it so often that I got to remember their cars. This weekend, while taking my boys out for a little trek, I saw those cars parked up again.

Furthermore, one of my guys that I talked to this morning lives in one of the beach communities south of Whangarei, and he said that on his weekend run along the beach, that all car parks that service the beach (3 of them), were full.
That is the effect of the cops doing "education" and giving warnings. Its pissing off a lot of people who are using a bit of self discipline and sticking to the advice to see so many just doing their own thing.

The cops have been totally useless. WTF is with only warning the guy who was positive and went to the supermarket? Should have been fining them like the Aussies did.

Easing the restrictions is going to see a free for all, and if they try to ramp things up again its not going to work. Even if the virus gets away in the population.
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Gordon Bennett »

Ted. wrote: What the greens should be supporting is improved road networks, for instance the Hutt to Tawa link that NZTA shit-canned, while at the same time encouraging the uptake of electric vehicles, including the in stallion a comprehensive network of charging stations ready to accept autonomous vehicles - which could be housed near our shiny new train stations.
The Grenada to Petone road got canned because the geotechnical investigation shows that their plan for the Petone end didn't work. That road as planned would have been a disaster waiting to happen, as I recall.

Rather than high-speed commuter rail (might work Hamilton/Tauranga to Auckland, but probably nowhere else), the gaps from Waikanae to Palmerston North and Te Rapa to Pukekohe in the electrification should be filled in so NIMT freight trains, which are due for replacement, can be EMUs, not DMUs and savings can be made in shifts from sector-to-sector. Possibly an argument for electrification to Tauranga and Masterton as well.

$9bn would be a lot of electrification. $19km from Papakura to Pukekohe is planned to cost $315m. Not sure what's included in that - might be double-tracking as well? Kiwirail planning docs quote a cost of $202m including additional stabling, level crossing improvements and platform renewals. Let's say the electrification part will be ~$160m (~50%) of the total project. Quoted price in 2012 for the electrification alone was $100m. $60m escalation since 2012 seems plausible.

So, @ $160m for 19km, that's ~$8.5m per km. $9bn would therefore electrify ~ 1,000km of network tracks. Pukekohe to Te Rapa is 68km un-electrified (seems short to me, but that's what the helpful Wikipedia says. Palmerston North to Waikanae is another 80km. Just under 60km from Upper Hutt to Masterton. So, to do all of that would be about $1.75bn. Let's say $2bn once you've had to do some tunnel adjustments on the Remutakas.

With Wairarapa trains needing renewal and the new freight hub to open in South Wairarapa, the timing makes sense to do this. Even if it takes a while for public transport to return to normal (it won't once we're all allowed back at work, is my guess. That drive from Porirua or the Hutt to Wellington sucks at the best of times. I'll take the train, thanks) the benefits to freight and emissions are substantial.
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UncleFB
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by UncleFB »

obelixtim wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:
Muttonbirds wrote:Interesting comments from a High School Principal:
I think that one of the things that has made New Zealand's Covid-19 response so successful thus far has been our trust that the Government, and particularly Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, has had our backs.

Until now we have had the sense that we have been doing this for the greater good and that we are all in this together. That has been at the heart of the Prime Minister's moral authority to lead us.

As an educator in a tightly-knit low-decile community, I'm immensely concerned about the contradictory and shifting advice on alert level 3. I worry that it puts this goodwill, and the successful Covid-19 response it has driven, at risk.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12325897

Fascinating social comment there that L4 involves all being in this together and that L3 erodes that unity. It prioritises those who are lucky enough to work in industries which come out of restriction and also places a greater number of people in harms way.

At L3 we will no longer be in this together.
On a slightly different tack (but keeping the theme of L4 or L3), anecdotal evidence suggests to me that people are already entering L3. I live near a forest with walking tracks, and prior to the lockdown, people would park up and go for walks after work. Some did it so often that I got to remember their cars. This weekend, while taking my boys out for a little trek, I saw those cars parked up again.

Furthermore, one of my guys that I talked to this morning lives in one of the beach communities south of Whangarei, and he said that on his weekend run along the beach, that all car parks that service the beach (3 of them), were full.
That is the effect of the cops doing "education" and giving warnings. Its pissing off a lot of people who are using a bit of self discipline and sticking to the advice to see so many just doing their own thing.

The cops have been totally useless. WTF is with only warning the guy who was positive and went to the supermarket? Should have been fining them like the Aussies did.

Easing the restrictions is going to see a free for all, and if they try to ramp things up again its not going to work. Even if the virus gets away in the population.
Australia is not enforcing the social distancing across the board, there are fines being handed out in random places for some things yet in others there is nothing.

In Darling Harbour this weekend no one gave a fuck and there were no police whatsoever to fine or warn people.
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Flockwitt
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by Flockwitt »

^ the kind of discussion that needs to be had regards a rail stimulus.

I wonder what Ted thinks of the construction industry L3 guidelines... @Ted
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kiwinoz
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by kiwinoz »

UncleFB wrote:
obelixtim wrote:
Jeff the Bear wrote:
Muttonbirds wrote:Interesting comments from a High School Principal:
I think that one of the things that has made New Zealand's Covid-19 response so successful thus far has been our trust that the Government, and particularly Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, has had our backs.

Until now we have had the sense that we have been doing this for the greater good and that we are all in this together. That has been at the heart of the Prime Minister's moral authority to lead us.

As an educator in a tightly-knit low-decile community, I'm immensely concerned about the contradictory and shifting advice on alert level 3. I worry that it puts this goodwill, and the successful Covid-19 response it has driven, at risk.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arti ... d=12325897

Fascinating social comment there that L4 involves all being in this together and that L3 erodes that unity. It prioritises those who are lucky enough to work in industries which come out of restriction and also places a greater number of people in harms way.

At L3 we will no longer be in this together.
On a slightly different tack (but keeping the theme of L4 or L3), anecdotal evidence suggests to me that people are already entering L3. I live near a forest with walking tracks, and prior to the lockdown, people would park up and go for walks after work. Some did it so often that I got to remember their cars. This weekend, while taking my boys out for a little trek, I saw those cars parked up again.

Furthermore, one of my guys that I talked to this morning lives in one of the beach communities south of Whangarei, and he said that on his weekend run along the beach, that all car parks that service the beach (3 of them), were full.
That is the effect of the cops doing "education" and giving warnings. Its pissing off a lot of people who are using a bit of self discipline and sticking to the advice to see so many just doing their own thing.

The cops have been totally useless. WTF is with only warning the guy who was positive and went to the supermarket? Should have been fining them like the Aussies did.

Easing the restrictions is going to see a free for all, and if they try to ramp things up again its not going to work. Even if the virus gets away in the population.
Australia is not enforcing the social distancing across the board, there are fines being handed out in random places for some things yet in others there is nothing.

In Darling Harbour this weekend no one gave a fuck and there were no police whatsoever to fine or warn people.
Do as we say not do as we do
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RuggaBugga
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by RuggaBugga »

sonic_attack wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:
sonic_attack wrote:The only sensible approach is absolute certainty from here in.
Surely "absolute certainty" won't be possible for years?
For business yes. We will lose a lot and be poorer, but we can work around that. We're an island nation who have reduced daily new cases to single digits.

The intent is eradication so that's our path. Whatever they're doing in Melbourne or Sweden has no relevance to us. The door is shut and the drawbridge pulled up. All we need do is stop transmission by treating everyone else as lepers with plague for another few months and we should be at zero.

The only people coming to New Zealand are those that are coming here for a long time, that will last years.

Forget that old New Zealand we had in February, we've chosen isolation and the changes that that will bring. I don't think New Zealand has really come to grips with what our future is. There's an expectation we just get to bounce back and be a part of the world in 12-18 months time.

Hopefully the plan works. We should be able to enjoy free movement between a few PI's and provide a gateway to them too.
Thing will change viv-a-vis tourism obviously however there's no reason to believe anything like "The only people coming to New Zealand are those that are coming here for a long time, that will last years."

You've consistently been a tad hysterical about the whole thing it must be said.
obelixtim
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by obelixtim »

Australia is not enforcing the social distancing across the board, there are fines being handed out in random places for some things yet in others there is nothing.

In Darling Harbour this weekend no one gave a fudge and there were no police whatsoever to fine or warn people.
And that inconsistency is what pisses people off the most, and is why trying tougher measures later will not work.

If it was tough from the start, and everyone understood the rules and consequences of breaking them, things would be a lot easier to accept, even by the morons. Its easier to be tough from the start and then ease up, than the other way around.
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RuggaBugga
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by RuggaBugga »

deadduck wrote:Why is there this perception that elimination can only occur at level 4?

All we need for elimination to be inevitable is to maintain the R value <1 and that may well be possible at level 3 or even 2.
There isn't. The whole point is that you need to utilise the restrictions to achieve R <1 and then hope we can maintain that level at the lower restrictions.

There is a big risk it can spike again if we get the timing wrong.
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sonic_attack
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by sonic_attack »

I'm picking Wednesday 29th 12:00am being the switch to level 3. A two week period of no new cases then switch to level 2, and a further 2 week clean slate as entry to level 1.

Seems a reasonable timeline. Not that level 3 by the definition can't be given the green light now but to we on the side of caution when we're so close seems the best option.

Standing where we are now the prospect of the relative freedom of level 1 is a genuine possibility by mid June at the latest, possibly late May earliest.

Would be quite an achievement.
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jambanja
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Re: NZ Politics Thread - NEW ZEALAND LOCKDOWN THREAD

Post by jambanja »

So I've come up with a cunning plan to firstly increase random testing and secondly to restore some sanity to my life if we go to level 3.

There has been a lot of speculation about what will and won't be allowed at L3, one of the questions being asked is, will those of us dumb enough to love the game, be allowed to play golf? My answer/plan would be, yes if you have been tested and cleared. So if I and the 3 people I normally play with, go and get tested and we're all clear then away we go. Our club has about 1000 members, I'd say that 75% minimum, would happily get tested if it meant they could play golf again, if you rolled that out over the whole of NZ, you would have a large number of randoms to test.
This is in no way a self serving plan, just happy to do my bit for the country 8)
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