Planet Rugby Forum

Fat Old Git wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:09 am

Ted. wrote: ↑Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:52 pm

Fat Old Git wrote: ↑Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:45 pm

Ted. wrote: ↑Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:58 am It's not about you being happy with it mat all FOG.

I might be happy to take risks at work off a ladder, have done so for years and being quite happy doing it. New laws came in, those laws set much higher standards of work place health and safety and cast a wider net in relation to responsibility and liability. I now don't do goosey things off a ladder, mostly, I set and example, write my SSSPs and task analysis, get buy in.I do that because I see the sense in them fir the industry and society in general, even though I see a lot of box ticking, especially by corporates. The funny thing is, at home I cans do pretty much as I like risk wise, with impunity except to my own person.

I could give you examples under strengthened consumer protections as well. The point is, if you haven't already got it, once you involve other people in your enterprise, higher standards are expected.

There's a very good reason tenants don't ventilate homes. It's very expensive.

Ventilation, opening a window, using an extractor is pretty dumb in the colder months. It negates the shiny new insulation, it will bleed energy far more effectively than insulation can retain it. The best thing you can do is make a home more air tight, that is where the most energy is lost by far, then control moisture by installing an all of house ventilation system with energy recovery (not one of the cruddy systems that are installed in most houses). A decent ventilation system with energy recovery is a better investment than a heat pump as far as energy gains per running cost.

I think you've missed my point Ted. Especially as I did say I was supportive of the introduction of the standards.

However, to clarify, I wasn't happy to put up with a cold damp house. The point was that the house wasn't cold or damp because of the way we managed it.

And you're comments re ventilation are just silly. You don't need to have windows open for long, or extraction on all the time to prevent a home from being damp, so you're not really negating the insulation. If you have a shower on, or a pot boiling on the stove putting lots of moisture into the air than using the extraction system while you are doing that is just sensible. HVS systems are great, but are you really suggesting that any home that doesn't have one is unhealthy? That would be the vast majority of houses in NZ, including the one I currently live in, and our rental property. Both of which are warm and dry.

They are not silly comments. Sure, you can rid most moisture from a house in 20 minutes of or so of ventilation, but you need to know what that does for energy loss how and effective that is in different times of the year/temperature+humidity=energy flow direction & moisture loading. Some research on hourly air change rates for the average house per era of construction would be enlightening.

When a house has not been specifically designed to be energy efficient, without serious modification there will be a trade off between energy use (heating in the main) and a healthy environment. It's no surprise we as a country rate poorly on the health of our homes. That's not some bullshit spouted on a forum, but a researched fact.

Ted, I haven't argued that HVS isn't the best solution or the gold standard. I'm not disputing that at all. Just that occasionally opening a window or using extraction is "pretty dumb in the colder months". The alternative is having a damp house which is much dumber than using a little bit more heating.

I've lived in both my rental property when it had less insulation than it does now, and my current home. Neither has HVS and neither were / are cold and damp. Even in winter.

guy smiley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:31 am

deadduck wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:11 am The government did enter the market.

It was called Kiwibuild

It was pretty successful (according to Phil Twyford)

I'm talking about the rental market, with a shared equity model leading to ownership.

guy smiley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:31 am

deadduck wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:11 am The government did enter the market.

It was called Kiwibuild

It was pretty successful (according to Phil Twyford)

I'm talking about the rental market, with a shared equity model leading to ownership.

Ted. wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:59 am

Yes, opening a window occasionally is better than having damp house, however that is a very low bar.

Also, if we are dealing with an older house, you will have that many air changes per hour that opening a window or using an extractor fan will make little difference. Code damp air will be coming in regardless that you will need to heated/should be heated + relatively cold surface = condensation = mould growth. Sorry, but there is no getting away from it.

jambanja wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 am Aren't the govt the biggest renters out there already
I go back to my mate who is renting to the govt already.

I was in Gisborne a couple of months ago training a work colleague and all the motels, and there are plenty of them, were booked out, I asked my colleague if there was something happening in Gizzy, and no it's all Housing NZ renting them out, same apparently in quite a few places, which really does highlight the critical shortage of stock, the govt should be encouraging people to build not discouraging them

jambanja wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 am Aren't the govt the biggest renters out there already
I go back to my mate who is renting to the govt already.

I was in Gisborne a couple of months ago training a work colleague and all the motels, and there are plenty of them, were booked out, I asked my colleague if there was something happening in Gizzy, and no it's all Housing NZ renting them out, same apparently in quite a few places, which really does highlight the critical shortage of stock, the govt should be encouraging people to build not discouraging them

Newshub can reveal the multimillion-dollar extent of the Government's emergency motel bill and just how much Kiwis are forking out to some of the top earners.

One motel made $6 million off the Government last year, charging much more for rooms than it normally would.

In the three months to December 2017, the Government spent $6.6 million on motels. By the following year it more than tripled and just keeps growing. In the same period last year, the Government spend skyrocketed to $82.5 million on motels.

Rental prices are out of control in New Zealand, leaving many to seek emergency accommodation. Newshub can reveal the top 10 earning motels collectively raked in $40 million of Government cash in just the last year - the top three charging more than $5 million each.

Fat Old Git wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:48 am

Ted. wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:59 am

Yes, opening a window occasionally is better than having damp house, however that is a very low bar.

Also, if we are dealing with an older house, you will have that many air changes per hour that opening a window or using an extractor fan will make little difference. Code damp air will be coming in regardless that you will need to heated/should be heated + relatively cold surface = condensation = mould growth. Sorry, but there is no getting away from it.

And yet I, and Booji by the sounds of it, managed to get away from it and live in properties without them being cold and damp and fill of mold. Mind you, on those occasions when we might have gotten a bit of condensation we probably dried it off with cloth and maybe gave it a quick spray with exit mold rather than leaving it for months on end.

I think you are still missing my point though Ted. No one is saying there aren't issues with many older properties, and that there isn't a lot of poor housing stock out there, or that there is no need for regulation. Just that that isn't the full story. There are ways to manage them without having the latest and greatest. No one is arguing the well insulated sealed properties with an HVS aren't the ideal.

Ted. wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:48 am

jambanja wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 am Aren't the govt the biggest renters out there already
I go back to my mate who is renting to the govt already.

I was in Gisborne a couple of months ago training a work colleague and all the motels, and there are plenty of them, were booked out, I asked my colleague if there was something happening in Gizzy, and no it's all Housing NZ renting them out, same apparently in quite a few places, which really does highlight the critical shortage of stock, the govt should be encouraging people to build not discouraging them

What does discouraging people to build look like?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124672 ... -thinktank

jambanja wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:48 am

Ted. wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:48 am

jambanja wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:19 am Aren't the govt the biggest renters out there already
I go back to my mate who is renting to the govt already.

I was in Gisborne a couple of months ago training a work colleague and all the motels, and there are plenty of them, were booked out, I asked my colleague if there was something happening in Gizzy, and no it's all Housing NZ renting them out, same apparently in quite a few places, which really does highlight the critical shortage of stock, the govt should be encouraging people to build not discouraging them

What does discouraging people to build look like?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124672 ... -thinktank

Fat Old Git wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:20 am I expect the tenants to keep the property reasonable clean, or should I be installing vermin traps and bait stations so they can leave food scraps and rubbish all over the place? Or employing a cleaner on their behalf? Both landlords and tenants have responsibilities. It's not a one-way street.

Landlords at the bottom end of the scale should be spending the money to bring the property up to standard if they haven't already. Ours was already above that standard when it was introduced, despite being an older property.

Perhaps everyone should be forced to bring them up to the higher standard you are advocating, if it is indeed possible for an older house. But it probably wouldn't save their tenant $50 per month or so. Such a property would sit higher in the rental price scale than it currently does.

Yep, the amount of money this government is wasting on emergency motel accomodation is mind boggling. $330 million a year and growing (Nearly $1 million dollars everyday)

Enzedder wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:08 am

Yep, the amount of money this government is wasting on emergency motel accomodation is mind boggling. $330 million a year and growing (Nearly $1 million dollars everyday)

Is it wasting the money though - it's money I bet they wish they don't have to spend but what is the alternative say this month, this year even?

Fat Old Git wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:22 am Yes, it is a bit of an OTT example, although I have had a tenent ask me if the house had had ant problems in the past as he was now getting them turned out to be because he had a habit of leaving empty unhinged beer cans in the garden and in the deck, and an extra large rubbish bin that he didn't change is rubbish all the often.

But you did seem to be advocating that tenents shouldn't have to take any responsibility in keeping their homes warm and dry.

As an aside, our property manager gives out guidance to tenants around how to look after properties. And goes through it with them at sign up. Which seems sensible.

farmerdave wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:24 am

Enzedder wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:08 am

Yep, the amount of money this government is wasting on emergency motel accomodation is mind boggling. $330 million a year and growing (Nearly $1 million dollars everyday)

Is it wasting the money though - it's money I bet they wish they don't have to spend but what is the alternative say this month, this year even?

One of the problems with speculators trying for the high ground by arguing they provide a service is that the above spending by the govt would indicate that they are doing an absolute shit job.

jambanja wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:28 am All the people living in motel rooms now, where were they living before, and before people say “their cars” let’s be realistic about, there were never that many people living in their cars as compared to the numbers of people now in motel rooms

Enzedder wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:52 am

jambanja wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:28 am All the people living in motel rooms now, where were they living before, and before people say “their cars” let’s be realistic about, there were never that many people living in their cars as compared to the numbers of people now in motel rooms

Some would have been sharing houses, garages etc. Some have been affected by the high immigration that we have had for over a decade, and some by the high numbers of Covid returnees soaking up available properties. Some will be taking advantage of the situation

Enzedder wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:08 am

Yep, the amount of money this government is wasting on emergency motel accomodation is mind boggling. $330 million a year and growing (Nearly $1 million dollars everyday)

Is it wasting the money though - it's money I bet they wish they don't have to spend but what is the alternative say this month, this year even?

guy smiley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:10 pm

JPNZ wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:15 am Do you know how many houses you could build for $920,000 per day?

A couple or three.

There's a bit of an issue though, with timber supply, lack of tradespeople and not enough land. Not short term solution type problems and people need roofs over their heads while the public don't like seeing homeless people on the streets.

guy smiley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:10 pm

JPNZ wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:15 am Do you know how many houses you could build for $920,000 per day?

A couple or three.

There's a bit of an issue though, with timber supply, lack of tradespeople and not enough land. Not short term solution type problems and people need roofs over their heads while the public don't like seeing homeless people on the streets.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... ation-says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124683 ... -retailers

kiweez wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:53 am Well, I’ve quit my job at Ministerial Services with my last day in a few weeks. I’m looking forward to being able to contribute to this thread in a meaningful way.

The current shortage of framing timber in New Zealand is a result of a global phenomenon compounded by unfortunate timing for New Zealand's largest supplier Carter Holt Harvey (CHH).

A year ago, the construction industry was at the top of the cycle. Sawmillers, like any manufacturers, invest in capacity based on forecast demand. Then Covid arrived, interest rates were slashed, borders were closed, and people around the world decided that was a great time to build the bach, extend the house, or catch up on the global housing shortage. A further building boom ensued, pushing demand beyond what was already the top of the natural market cycle.

There are now similar shortages in Australia, UK, Europe and the USA. This also explains why New Zealand cannot readily turn to imported framing timber to solve this short-term problem.

Unfortunate timing

The global shortage might not have affected New Zealand had it not been for two events at CHH in the last 18 months.

To put this in context, one needs to understand the structure and trends in the framing supply market in New Zealand. There is a long term global trend toward very large scale sawmilling operations, and consolidation of the sector as a result. Take for example, the construction of the Southern Hemisphere's largest sawmill in Rotorua. It produces over 600,000 cubic meters of timber annually and supplies 25 per cent of the New Zealand framing market.

CHH owned the second, third and fourth largest sawmills based in Kawerau, Whangarei and Nelson respectively, with around 45 per cent market share. In response to a shortage of high density 'structural' sawlogs in Northland – created due to the overcutting on young forests for export a decade ago – CHH elected to close the Whangarei mill and scale up the Kawerau mill. That was an entirely rational thing to do and something the industry expected would happen for many years.

It would have been fine had the Kawerau upgrade worked as planned. Unfortunately, the upgrade required an extra-long Christmas shut this year and the site has struggled to produce the capacity expected since then. I expect it will in due course; these things can take some time.

With the benefit of hindsight, it would have been better to await the successful Kawerau upgrade before closing the Whangarei mill this time last year.

Shortage

All this has created a shortage of timber over the traditionally busy summer and autumn period. CHH was struggling to supply its sister company Carters and its supply contract to PlaceMakers, whilst also supporting customers from other merchant chains, some of which the mills had supplied for decades. Something had to give. The surprising move came on Tuesday last week when ITM, Mitre10 and other independents were informed that their supply would be stopped forthwith.

It is important to note that not all stores in these chains are affected. Red Stag supplies many of the larger stores in these chains as well as PlaceMakers so its customers will be largely unaffected. Others have good relationships with other sawmills, of which there are around two dozen.

What tends to happen in these circumstances is suppliers look after their most loyal historic customers. Merchants will do the same. Those that miss out are likely to be the customers that have shopped around too much, haggled too hard on price, paid late, or been difficult to deal with. Which in turn means it will be business as usual for much of the industry.

Options from here

My estimate is that there is a shortage of 5-10 per cent currently in New Zealand. Others may say more, but what typically happens is the short-supplied stores or customers search around the market for supply giving the impression that there is more shortage than there really is. However, even at 5-10 per cent, this is a problem at a time when the government is trying to scale up construction.

Red Stag and the other sawmills will flex to try to supply more in the short term, but capacity is already stretched. It takes several years of planning, plant manufacture, ordering and installation to bring on meaningful capacity in sawmilling. In Red Stag's case, it has increased capacity from 200,000 to over 600,000 cubic meters in the last 15 years, and will likely push on to 1 million capacity in the coming decade.

One of the issues in the short term is that customers are committed to three months in advance, meaning it is hard to divert volume from export customers already committed to. Once CHH gets comfortable with its Kawerau output and stocking levels, I expect it will make volume available again to spurned customers. That might take until June, when things start to slow down a bit in the market anyway due to winter. The proviso here is whether this is a market share play by CHH's owners Rank Group to sell its sawmills – something it has been trying to do for over a decade.

Government's role

The main volume of new material coming into the New Zealand market will be from the new Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) factory in Rotorua, which will open in May. The Red Stag factory has the capacity to supply 2,000 apartment units annually, so around 5 per cent of New Zealand's housing needs, and much of the current timber shortage if the market adjusts to use that product.

CLT is ideal for mid-floors of terraced houses, so will also help alleviate the market shortage of 'wide' boards.

Kaianga Ora is the most experienced user of CLT in its apartment blocks of 3 storeys and above. It forecasts building hundreds of dwelling units annually with the product, yet it makes up only a portion of its build programme.

If the government wanted to act strategically to alleviate the timber shortage, it would focus Kaianga Ora on using a lot more CLT, and in doing so free up framing timber for the general market to use.

Across the foregoing factors, I expect the timber supply could be back in balance in six months.

jambanja wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:28 am All the people living in motel rooms now, where were they living before, and before people say “their cars” let’s be realistic about, there were never that many people living in their cars as compared to the numbers of people now in motel rooms

farmerdave wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:35 am In my experience suppliers tend to look after those that make the most noise and just keep getting in the suppliers faces till the supplier just wants to be rid of them. Nice loyal customers don't always win.

JPNZ wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:47 pm

guy smiley wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:10 pm

JPNZ wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:15 am Do you know how many houses you could build for $920,000 per day?

A couple or three.

There's a bit of an issue though, with timber supply, lack of tradespeople and not enough land. Not short term solution type problems and people need roofs over their heads while the public don't like seeing homeless people on the streets.

You know you don't pay for houses upfront in full when building right? $27,600,000.00 per month would start the build on around 370 houses, obviously ramping up over time.

I work in construction, the timber supply issues will be cleared within 6 months, we have had a lack of qualified tradespeople for the last 10 years and land supply isin't an issue in all areas.

Whatever happened to Kiwibuild? If this government actually started doing something rather than paying exorbitant amounts of money to motel owners, we may have something to house people long term.

Enzedder wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:59 am

kiweez wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:53 am Well, I’ve quit my job at Ministerial Services with my last day in a few weeks. I’m looking forward to being able to contribute to this thread in a meaningful way.

Look forward to it - what sort of role are you moving into?

JPNZ wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:13 am For those that actually want to read about the Timber shortage the below from Marty Verry CEO of Red Stag Timber in NZ.

The current shortage of framing timber in New Zealand is a result of a global phenomenon compounded by unfortunate timing for New Zealand's largest supplier Carter Holt Harvey (CHH).

Spoiler: show

A year ago, the construction industry was at the top of the cycle. Sawmillers, like any manufacturers, invest in capacity based on forecast demand. Then Covid arrived, interest rates were slashed, borders were closed, and people around the world decided that was a great time to build the bach, extend the house, or catch up on the global housing shortage. A further building boom ensued, pushing demand beyond what was already the top of the natural market cycle.

There are now similar shortages in Australia, UK, Europe and the USA. This also explains why New Zealand cannot readily turn to imported framing timber to solve this short-term problem.

Unfortunate timing

The global shortage might not have affected New Zealand had it not been for two events at CHH in the last 18 months.

To put this in context, one needs to understand the structure and trends in the framing supply market in New Zealand. There is a long term global trend toward very large scale sawmilling operations, and consolidation of the sector as a result. Take for example, the construction of the Southern Hemisphere's largest sawmill in Rotorua. It produces over 600,000 cubic meters of timber annually and supplies 25 per cent of the New Zealand framing market.

CHH owned the second, third and fourth largest sawmills based in Kawerau, Whangarei and Nelson respectively, with around 45 per cent market share. In response to a shortage of high density 'structural' sawlogs in Northland – created due to the overcutting on young forests for export a decade ago – CHH elected to close the Whangarei mill and scale up the Kawerau mill. That was an entirely rational thing to do and something the industry expected would happen for many years.

It would have been fine had the Kawerau upgrade worked as planned. Unfortunately, the upgrade required an extra-long Christmas shut this year and the site has struggled to produce the capacity expected since then. I expect it will in due course; these things can take some time.

With the benefit of hindsight, it would have been better to await the successful Kawerau upgrade before closing the Whangarei mill this time last year.

Shortage

All this has created a shortage of timber over the traditionally busy summer and autumn period. CHH was struggling to supply its sister company Carters and its supply contract to PlaceMakers, whilst also supporting customers from other merchant chains, some of which the mills had supplied for decades. Something had to give. The surprising move came on Tuesday last week when ITM, Mitre10 and other independents were informed that their supply would be stopped forthwith.

It is important to note that not all stores in these chains are affected. Red Stag supplies many of the larger stores in these chains as well as PlaceMakers so its customers will be largely unaffected. Others have good relationships with other sawmills, of which there are around two dozen.

What tends to happen in these circumstances is suppliers look after their most loyal historic customers. Merchants will do the same. Those that miss out are likely to be the customers that have shopped around too much, haggled too hard on price, paid late, or been difficult to deal with. Which in turn means it will be business as usual for much of the industry.

Options from here

My estimate is that there is a shortage of 5-10 per cent currently in New Zealand. Others may say more, but what typically happens is the short-supplied stores or customers search around the market for supply giving the impression that there is more shortage than there really is. However, even at 5-10 per cent, this is a problem at a time when the government is trying to scale up construction.

Red Stag and the other sawmills will flex to try to supply more in the short term, but capacity is already stretched. It takes several years of planning, plant manufacture, ordering and installation to bring on meaningful capacity in sawmilling. In Red Stag's case, it has increased capacity from 200,000 to over 600,000 cubic meters in the last 15 years, and will likely push on to 1 million capacity in the coming decade.

One of the issues in the short term is that customers are committed to three months in advance, meaning it is hard to divert volume from export customers already committed to. Once CHH gets comfortable with its Kawerau output and stocking levels, I expect it will make volume available again to spurned customers. That might take until June, when things start to slow down a bit in the market anyway due to winter. The proviso here is whether this is a market share play by CHH's owners Rank Group to sell its sawmills – something it has been trying to do for over a decade.

Government's role

The main volume of new material coming into the New Zealand market will be from the new Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) factory in Rotorua, which will open in May. The Red Stag factory has the capacity to supply 2,000 apartment units annually, so around 5 per cent of New Zealand's housing needs, and much of the current timber shortage if the market adjusts to use that product.

CLT is ideal for mid-floors of terraced houses, so will also help alleviate the market shortage of 'wide' boards.

Kaianga Ora is the most experienced user of CLT in its apartment blocks of 3 storeys and above. It forecasts building hundreds of dwelling units annually with the product, yet it makes up only a portion of its build programme.

If the government wanted to act strategically to alleviate the timber shortage, it would focus Kaianga Ora on using a lot more CLT, and in doing so free up framing timber for the general market to use.

Across the foregoing factors, I expect the timber supply could be back in balance in six months.

kiweez wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:34 am

Enzedder wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:59 am

kiweez wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:53 am Well, I’ve quit my job at Ministerial Services with my last day in a few weeks. I’m looking forward to being able to contribute to this thread in a meaningful way.

Look forward to it - what sort of role are you moving into?

Private sector. Electrical infrastructure. I’ll be dedicated to working on government agencies and department fleets, working with them to achieve their 2025 zero emissions targets.

kiweez wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:34 am

Enzedder wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:59 am

kiweez wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:53 am Well, I’ve quit my job at Ministerial Services with my last day in a few weeks. I’m looking forward to being able to contribute to this thread in a meaningful way.

Look forward to it - what sort of role are you moving into?

Private sector. Electrical infrastructure. I’ll be dedicated to working on government agencies and department fleets, working with them to achieve their 2025 zero emissions targets.