OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

[SamShark]

v






Date of referendum:
23 June

Info
List of which way MPs are voting: http://order-order.com/2016/02/16/intro ... ndum-list/

In campaign
https://twitter.com/StrongerIn
http://www.strongerin.co.uk/

Out campaign
http://getbritainout.org/
https://twitter.com/GetBritainOut

Postal votes
Off to Glasto, Euro16? https://www.gov.uk/voting-in-the-uk/postal-voting

[Dobbin]

that in logo reminds me of the old london weekend television logo.....and that in turn reminds me of the empire....and some irish bloke told me we could return to those heady days if we leave the eu


ill be voting out

[SamShark]

The deal - some say it is good, some say it is meaningless

What are the main changes David Cameron has agreed?
Mr Cameron agreed a package of changes to the UK's membership of the EU after two days of intensive talks with other member states' leaders in Brussels in February. The agreement, which will take effect immediately if the UK votes to remain in the EU, includes changes to:

Child benefit - Child benefit payments to migrant workers for children living overseas to be recalculated to reflect the cost of living in their home countries

Migrant welfare payments - The UK can decide to limit in-work benefits for EU migrants during their first four years in the UK. This so-called "emergency brake" can be applied in the event of "exceptional" levels of migration, but must be released within seven years - without exception.

Eurozone - Britain can keep the pound while being in Europe, and its business trade with the bloc, without fear of discrimination. Any British money spent on bailing out eurozone nations will be reimbursed.

Protection for the City of London - Safeguards for Britain's large financial services industry to prevent eurozone regulations being imposed on it

Sovereignty - There is an explicit commitment that the UK will not be part of an "ever closer union" with other EU member states. This will be incorporated in an EU treaty change.

'Red card' for national parliaments - It will be easier for governments to band together to block unwanted legislation. If 55% of national EU parliaments object to a piece of EU legislation it may be rethought.

Competitiveness - The settlement calls on all EU institutions and member states to "make all efforts to fully implement and strengthen the internal market" and to take "concrete steps towards better regulation", including by cutting red tape.

Some limits on free movement - Denying automatic free movement rights to nationals of a country outside the EU who marry an EU national, as part of measures to tackle "sham" marriages. There are also new powers to exclude people believed to be a security risk - even if they have no previous convictions.

[SamShark]

that in logo reminds me of the old london weekend television logo.....and that in turn reminds me of the empire....and some irish bloke told me we could return to those heady days if we leave the eu


ill be voting out

To be honest every British person longs for a return to the empire according to the same Irish sources. If we can get a bit colonial on someones ass, I will join the "out" campaign too.

[Dobbin]

'Red card' for national parliaments - It will be easier for governments to band together to block unwanted legislation. If 55% of national EU parliaments object to a piece of EU legislation it may be rethought.

im baffled as to how the phrase may be rethought equates to a red card

[C69]

that in logo reminds me of the old london weekend television logo.....and that in turn reminds me of the empire....and some irish bloke told me we could return to those heady days if we leave the eu


ill be voting out

To be honest every British person longs for a return to the empire according to the same Irish sources. If we can get a bit colonial on someones ass, I will join the "out" campaign too.

You are conflating British with English IMHO.

[SamShark]

that in logo reminds me of the old london weekend television logo.....and that in turn reminds me of the empire....and some irish bloke told me we could return to those heady days if we leave the eu


ill be voting out

To be honest every British person longs for a return to the empire according to the same Irish sources. If we can get a bit colonial on someones ass, I will join the "out" campaign too.

You are conflating British with English IMHO.

Feel free to start a thread about your English insecurities - this is about the EU

[C69]

that in logo reminds me of the old london weekend television logo.....and that in turn reminds me of the empire....and some irish bloke told me we could return to those heady days if we leave the eu


ill be voting out

To be honest every British person longs for a return to the empire according to the same Irish sources. If we can get a bit colonial on someones ass, I will join the "out" campaign too.

You are conflating British with English IMHO.

Feel free to start a thread about your English insecurities - this is about the EU

Wow

[DragsterDriver]

I think it will be an 'out', the conditions Dave has won are clearly shite and full of conditions. He's come away empty handed.

[C69]

I think it will be an 'out', the conditions Dave has won are clearly shite and full of conditions. He's come away empty handed.

It does look that for all his bluff and bluster in a mediocre pronouncement last night, there is little real substance.
I am leaning towards in ATM but will listen to the evidence presented.

[SamShark]

I think it will be an 'out', the conditions Dave has won are clearly shite and full of conditions. He's come away empty handed.

So you think undecided people will see the deal as shit, and that will convince them to vote out?

Some say almost 50% of people are open to be convinced either way.

[C69]

If there is a no vote but Scotland's populous vote overwhelmingly to stay in then it will be interesting to say the least.

[Dobbin]

If there is a no vote but Scotland's populous vote overwhelmingly to stay in then it will be interesting to say the least.

yeah....ill be looking carefully at the greater manchester vote too

[RoseGarden]

Apparently bookies odds have gone more towards IN since last night as Cameron's performance was so impressive.

I think we'll stay in. Especially given the bunch of plum that they have running the out.

[Sefton]

If there is a no vote but Scotland's populous vote overwhelmingly to stay in then it will be interesting to say the least.

There will be a justification for a new referendum for independence and the Scots will vote to leave.

[SamShark]

If there is a no vote it will be pretty turbulent and interesting regardless of what Scotland says.

The implications are quite mind blowing.

[SamShark]

The polls are quite turbulent but it's interesting to see various breakdowns based on different things.

Perhaps unsurprisingly the 'higher' your social class the more likely you are to vote to stay, with the university/A level educated also more likely to vote to stay, versus GCSE educated more likely to vote to leave.

Places such as London, North East England and Scotland are strong "stay" and East Anglia stronger "leave"

Old bastards want out, the younger generation want to stay - 18-29s the biggest stayers, 60+ the most likely "out" group

[C69]

Who is eligible to vote?
Iirc the criteria is different from a general election, is this right.

[tabascoboy]

The polls are quite turbulent but it's interesting to see various breakdowns based on different things.

Perhaps unsurprisingly the 'higher' your social class the more likely you are to vote to stay, with the university/A level educated also more likely to vote to stay, versus GCSE educated more likely to vote to leave.

Places such as London, North East England and Scotland are strong "stay" and East Anglia stronger "leave"

Old bastards want out, the younger generation want to stay - 18-29s the biggest stayers, 60+ the most likely "out" group

Link?

Edit - got it http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... emain.html

[SamShark]

British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

[cachao]

So the longer one has been an adult, the more likely an out vote.

[SamShark]

The polls are quite turbulent but it's interesting to see various breakdowns based on different things.

Perhaps unsurprisingly the 'higher' your social class the more likely you are to vote to stay, with the university/A level educated also more likely to vote to stay, versus GCSE educated more likely to vote to leave.

Places such as London, North East England and Scotland are strong "stay" and East Anglia stronger "leave"

Old bastards want out, the younger generation want to stay - 18-29s the biggest stayers, 60+ the most likely "out" group

Link?

I think most of my top notch analysis was lifted from here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... emain.html

[Bouch's Best]

Nope.

I like the EU and they need the UK as much as we need them.

[cachao]

Doesn't Corbyn also have greater support amongst the young?

[SamShark]

So the longer one has been an adult, the more likely an out vote.

Indeed - the closer you are to death, the more you want to influence shit for those that will have to live with it.

[cachao]

So the longer one has been an adult, the more likely an out vote.

Indeed - the closer you are to death, the more you want to influence shit for those that will have to live with it.

It's an odd one for sure. Landlords, and home-owners, generally in the older group, benefit from the numbers of people coming to the UK to work. Yet younger people, generation-rent are in favour of staying.

[SamShark]

Doesn't Corbyn also have greater support amongst the young?

It's an interesting issue.

In the Scottish independence referendum the nationalists accused the older generation of not being brave and hanging on to the status quo.

In this case it's the older generation who want "out" of something more than the young.

[SamShark]

Another massive generalisation, but baby boomers have lived a very different life and had very different situations to those who will face the future.

The idea of hanging on to what you have, having lived your life, had a good career, bought property, is a different position to younger people now who live in a completely different world.

[SamShark]

There is some certainty amongst all of this:

Craig Bryant ن‎ ‎@Bryanttie
I reckon we'll deffo come last in Eurovision because of this #euref #nilpoints

[Doc Rob]

Doesn't Corbyn also have greater support amongst the young?

It's an interesting issue.

In the Scottish independence referendum the nationalists accused the older generation of not being brave and hanging on to the status quo.

In this case it's the older generation who want "out" of something more than the young.

Quite. I'm already cringing waiting for all the people who were dead against Scottish independence from the UK arguing in favour of UK 'independence' from Brussels, whilst shamelessly using all of the same arguments.

[cachao]

Doesn't Corbyn also have greater support amongst the young?

It's an interesting issue.

In the Scottish independence referendum the nationalists accused the older generation of not being brave and hanging on to the status quo.

In this case it's the older generation who want "out" of something more than the young.

Quite. I'm already cringing waiting for all the people who were dead against Scottish independence from the UK arguing in favour of UK 'independence' from Brussels, whilst shamelessly using all of the same arguments.

And all those people who argued in favour of Scottish independence from the UK shamelessly using the all the same arguments..?

[Dobbin]

Doesn't Corbyn also have greater support amongst the young?

It's an interesting issue.

In the Scottish independence referendum the nationalists accused the older generation of not being brave and hanging on to the status quo.

In this case it's the older generation who want "out" of something more than the young.

yet in both cases what the young preferred was seen as somehow progressive

progressive is an interesting concept....i have a theory that its based on some nominal legal type....not the man on the clapham omnibus but the home counties major...whatever the issue the opposite of what the home counties major would choose is deemed progressive

[Slider]

I'm a bit puzzled by the amount of attention they are giving to which MP's are in, which are out, how many in the cabinet will oppose Cameron etc. I see it's part of this thread too.

They don't count. It's a referendum, not a commons vote. Each MP gets one vote, same as the rest of the electorate. (OK, technically they do count then I suppose, but only a tiny fraction).

If we lived in a time when politicians were followed like heroes, then I could see the relevance but clearly we don't. The opposite is actually true. I can't think of a single person who is waiting for BoJo to declare so they can make up their minds.

It seems to me this has happened because the political commentators are so immersed in the system they can't see the big picture. To them, and all the other political geeks, a split party is actually more interesting than the opinion of the electorate. Judging by the Scottish referendum, this is going to get worse when campaigning starts. No doubt John Major and Gordon Brown will be wheeled out to talk nicely to all the pensioners.

What does interest me is how well the REMAIN group persuade people that the EU summit changes are significant and meaningful. Their problem is that it's an outright lie. Cameron and Osborne first spoke about the referendum being in their manifesto on the basis of bringing about a fundamental change to EU treaties. They (or the media) spoke about an EU-wide Big Bang. I knew they were never going to get anything like that. They avoided specifics, but people were talking about restricting EU immigration. That's a non-starter - if you meddle with free movement then the whole idea of the EU will fall. I doubt any one country would have backed him. He has managed to turn the question of immigration to one of benefit tourism, but that's absurd because the sums involved are negligible.

[Silver]

'Red card' for national parliaments - It will be easier for governments to band together to block unwanted legislation. If 55% of national EU parliaments object to a piece of EU legislation it may be rethought.

im baffled as to how the phrase may be rethought equates to a red card

Or it may not be

The EU is not for turning. They play the game but will forget all about it tomorrow. and start planning for more ever closer union.

[Silver]

Doesn't Corbyn also have greater support amongst the young?

It's an interesting issue.

In the Scottish independence referendum the nationalists accused the older generation of not being brave and hanging on to the status quo.

In this case it's the older generation who want "out" of something more than the young.

Quite. I'm already cringing waiting for all the people who were dead against Scottish independence from the UK arguing in favour of UK 'independence' from Brussels, whilst shamelessly using all of the same arguments.

Surely its the other way. Those for Scottish independence are likely against UK sovereignty. For some strange reason.

[Slider]

Surely its the other way. Those for Scottish independence are likely against UK sovereignty. For some strange reason.

It's a pretty solid correlation both ways. Those who supported independence are largely pro-Europe, those who support the current Union of the UK are anti-Europe. There is another group of mostly English nationalists who would be happiest to see the lot of them bugger off, but it's a minority.

[bimboman]

Scottish nats voting to stay in Europe

[C69]

Scottish nats voting to stay in Europe

what's so funny?

[Silver]

Surely its the other way. Those for Scottish independence are likely against UK sovereignty. For some strange reason.

It's a pretty solid correlation both ways. Those who supported independence are largely pro-Europe, those who support the current Union of the UK are anti-Europe. There is another group of mostly English nationalists who would be happiest to see the lot of them bugger off, but it's a minority.

Pro EU?

Many who STRONGLY support the current Union of the UK are pro-EU. This kind of makes sense

Being pro Scottish independence and pro UK in the EU doesn't.

[Slider]

Scottish nats voting to stay in Europe

what's so funny?

Exactly. That position of the SNP is quite consistent. They campaigned for an independent Scotland that would have a relationship with the rest of the UK similar to the relationship that the UK has with the other EU countries. Common standards, free movement, etc. Even a common currency. Co-operation with not governance by.