OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

[paddyor]

Indeed I was going to make this point earlier, except it's more likely that the customers shop elsewhere, it's not just the UK that suffers. The EU companies that rely on the UK market get shafted. The EU will price itself out of the UK at a greater level. We can buy from the ROW dirt cheap sans current EU tariff. They cant do that, they have to pay our tariff or another countries tariff regardless. So we remain competitive with ROW selling in the EU. ROW also gets to sell in to a $3tn stripped of EU competition.

Eh, the ROW will be subject to the same tariffs as the EU unless theres a FTA. You're so crap at this.

We dont have to charge anybody anything. or at least choose what gets protected.

You're fond of crap analogies. You can't go to the pub with your 2 mates and offer to buy one a pint.

Never mind how stupid it is to antagonize and start a trade war with the "biggest market" on the planet, non tariff barriers are a bigger problem for the UK (and the EU).

[I like haggis]

May might have a tough time appearing principled in negotiations once EU leaders hear this (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... CMP=twt_gu) . Can't trust bankers with anything.

[Chuckles1188]

which tory mp's are you specifically referring to?

The Tory party have always over lapped with any right wing movement in the UK, which is why no right movement (including UKIP) have ever won a seat in Parliament.

FPTP has always helped with this, hence why the right wing masses have always voted Tory.

Yet UKIP are eating labour votes for breakfast , lunch and dinner.

Yet only won Carswell's seat.

[paddyor]

May might have a tough time appearing principled in negotiations once EU leaders hear this (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... CMP=twt_gu) . Can't trust bankers with anything.

NO WAY! What about the tariff money?

[Rugby2023]

May might have a tough time appearing principled in negotiations once EU leaders hear this (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... CMP=twt_gu) . Can't trust bankers with anything.

This is really counter-productive to their soft Brexit objectives, all it achieves is feeding pro-Leave suspicion and helps ramp up the pressure on May to deliver a harder Brexit.

[jorwar]

May might have a tough time appearing principled in negotiations once EU leaders hear this (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... CMP=twt_gu) . Can't trust bankers with anything.

This is really counter-productive to their soft Brexit objectives, all it achieves is feeding pro-Leave suspicion and helps ramp up the pressure on May to deliver a harder Brexit.

Go for it Theresa. Harder harder.
Dig yer heels in.
If you're going to f.uck things up, do it properly. Destroy the city wankers.

[Chuckles1188]

External pressure is irrelevant to May. The majority of Conservative voters voted to leave, the ones who are willing to jump ship to UKIP want to reduce immigration, and the only thing she cares about is remaining Prime Minister

[nardol]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... kes-market

London property prices are set to fall next year as uncertainty about Britain’s exit from the European Union damps the U.K. housing market, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
London, and especially the priciest areas of the capital’s housing market, will be most affected, with prices dropping 5.6 percent in 2017, according to the consultancy’s predictions. Across the U.K., while property value growth will accelerate to 6.9 percent in 2016, it’s set to slow to 2.6 percent next year.
“Nervousness and uncertainty are starting to show,” said Kay Daniel Neufeld, an economist at Cebr. “We expect to see house-price growth across the U.K. slowing considerably in the fourth quarter of 2016, a trend that is set to continue in 2017.”
While the housing market was already facing headwinds from tax changes before June’s EU referendum, investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the possibility of a so-called hard Brexit. That could see the U.K. giving up membership of Europe’s single market for goods and services to secure greater control of immigration.
Accelerating inflation, increasing unemployment and slowing business investment are all set to weigh on house prices, while curbs on migration and a retreat from the single market could slow demand from international buyers, the Cebr said.

[dr dre2]

Indeed I was going to make this point earlier, except it's more likely that the customers shop elsewhere, it's not just the UK that suffers. The EU companies that rely on the UK market get shafted. The EU will price itself out of the UK at a greater level. We can buy from the ROW dirt cheap sans current EU tariff. They cant do that, they have to pay our tariff or another countries tariff regardless. So we remain competitive with ROW selling in the EU. ROW also gets to sell in to a $3tn stripped of EU competition.

Eh, the ROW will be subject to the same tariffs as the EU unless theres a FTA. You're so crap at this.

We dont have to charge anybody anything. or at least choose what gets protected.

You're fond of crap analogies. You can't go to the pub with your 2 mates and offer to buy one a pint.

Never mind how stupid it is to antagonize and start a trade war with the "biggest market" on the planet, non tariff barriers are a bigger problem for the UK (and the EU).

Chances are we'll have a TA with the EU which will put them outside the MF scope of the WTO. An agreement that tries to punish us. We'll have that after offering to buy them a round and them refusing to accept it, their choice. We are then free to trade with ROW on our terms, differing terms than we have with that group. As well as being able to offer favourable terms to those countries classed as poor who are outside the scope of MF. And that is before we strike our own agreements, which is also the route we'd have to follow if no TA is agreed with the EU but even then it's just a matter of time, which is what i meant. Trade war? there is no trade war, we've just adapted to the new landscape the EU created when they refused our pint and cut themselves out of our market. Even considering the tariffs we may even be able to sell in to the EU at about the same price point we do now because we can buy from the cheapest supplier and the EU choose to protect their market so much. Any TA they strike has to suit the 28 and they wont budge.

[Chuckles1188]

Loving this idea that we can get a TA. No idea where it comes from, but it's a source of some optimism at least

[Tony Blair's Therapist]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... kes-market

London property prices are set to fall next year as uncertainty about Britain’s exit from the European Union damps the U.K. housing market, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
London, and especially the priciest areas of the capital’s housing market, will be most affected, with prices dropping 5.6 percent in 2017, according to the consultancy’s predictions. Across the U.K., while property value growth will accelerate to 6.9 percent in 2016, it’s set to slow to 2.6 percent next year.
“Nervousness and uncertainty are starting to show,” said Kay Daniel Neufeld, an economist at Cebr. “We expect to see house-price growth across the U.K. slowing considerably in the fourth quarter of 2016, a trend that is set to continue in 2017.”
While the housing market was already facing headwinds from tax changes before June’s EU referendum, investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the possibility of a so-called hard Brexit. That could see the U.K. giving up membership of Europe’s single market for goods and services to secure greater control of immigration.
Accelerating inflation, increasing unemployment and slowing business investment are all set to weigh on house prices, while curbs on migration and a retreat from the single market could slow demand from international buyers, the Cebr said.

Well at least it's not all bad news, then.

[paddyor]

Indeed I was going to make this point earlier, except it's more likely that the customers shop elsewhere, it's not just the UK that suffers. The EU companies that rely on the UK market get shafted. The EU will price itself out of the UK at a greater level. We can buy from the ROW dirt cheap sans current EU tariff. They cant do that, they have to pay our tariff or another countries tariff regardless. So we remain competitive with ROW selling in the EU. ROW also gets to sell in to a $3tn stripped of EU competition.

Eh, the ROW will be subject to the same tariffs as the EU unless theres a FTA. You're so crap at this.

We dont have to charge anybody anything. or at least choose what gets protected.

You're fond of crap analogies. You can't go to the pub with your 2 mates and offer to buy one a pint.

Never mind how stupid it is to antagonize and start a trade war with the "biggest market" on the planet, non tariff barriers are a bigger problem for the UK (and the EU).

Chances are we'll have a TA with the EU which will put them outside the MF scope of the WTO. An agreement that tries to punish us. We'll have that after offering to buy them a round and them refusing to accept it, their choice. We are then free to trade with ROW on our terms, differing terms than we have with that group. As well as being able to offer favourable terms to those countries classed as poor who are outside the scope of MF. And that is before we strike our own agreements, which is also the route we'd have to follow if no TA is agreed with the EU but even then it's just a matter of time, which is what i meant. Trade war? there is no trade war, we've just adapted to the new landscape the EU created when they refused our pint and cut themselves out of our market. Even considering the tariffs we may even be able to sell in to the EU at about the same price point we do now because we can buy from the cheapest supplier and the EU choose to protect their market so much. Any TA they strike has to suit the 28 and they wont budge.

DId that make sense to anyone?

[Chuckles1188]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... kes-market

London property prices are set to fall next year as uncertainty about Britain’s exit from the European Union damps the U.K. housing market, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
London, and especially the priciest areas of the capital’s housing market, will be most affected, with prices dropping 5.6 percent in 2017, according to the consultancy’s predictions. Across the U.K., while property value growth will accelerate to 6.9 percent in 2016, it’s set to slow to 2.6 percent next year.
“Nervousness and uncertainty are starting to show,” said Kay Daniel Neufeld, an economist at Cebr. “We expect to see house-price growth across the U.K. slowing considerably in the fourth quarter of 2016, a trend that is set to continue in 2017.”
While the housing market was already facing headwinds from tax changes before June’s EU referendum, investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the possibility of a so-called hard Brexit. That could see the U.K. giving up membership of Europe’s single market for goods and services to secure greater control of immigration.
Accelerating inflation, increasing unemployment and slowing business investment are all set to weigh on house prices, while curbs on migration and a retreat from the single market could slow demand from international buyers, the Cebr said.

Well at least it's not all bad news, then.

Or it wouldn't be if George Osborne's "recovery" wasn't mostly based on getting a new property bubble going

[Adetroy]

Indeed I was going to make this point earlier, except it's more likely that the customers shop elsewhere, it's not just the UK that suffers. The EU companies that rely on the UK market get shafted. The EU will price itself out of the UK at a greater level. We can buy from the ROW dirt cheap sans current EU tariff. They cant do that, they have to pay our tariff or another countries tariff regardless. So we remain competitive with ROW selling in the EU. ROW also gets to sell in to a $3tn stripped of EU competition.

Eh, the ROW will be subject to the same tariffs as the EU unless theres a FTA. You're so crap at this.

We dont have to charge anybody anything. or at least choose what gets protected.

You're fond of crap analogies. You can't go to the pub with your 2 mates and offer to buy one a pint.

Never mind how stupid it is to antagonize and start a trade war with the "biggest market" on the planet, non tariff barriers are a bigger problem for the UK (and the EU).

Chances are we'll have a TA with the EU which will put them outside the MF scope of the WTO. An agreement that tries to punish us. We'll have that after offering to buy them a round and them refusing to accept it, their choice. We are then free to trade with ROW on our terms, differing terms than we have with that group. As well as being able to offer favourable terms to those countries classed as poor who are outside the scope of MF. And that is before we strike our own agreements, which is also the route we'd have to follow if no TA is agreed with the EU but even then it's just a matter of time, which is what i meant. Trade war? there is no trade war, we've just adapted to the new landscape the EU created when they refused our pint and cut themselves out of our market. Even considering the tariffs we may even be able to sell in to the EU at about the same price point we do now because we can buy from the cheapest supplier and the EU choose to protect their market so much. Any TA they strike has to suit the 28 and they wont budge.

You really are clueless. A core principle of the WTO Is with regard to the equality of treatment. The favourable terms you offer to one country cannot be denied to another. These "favourable terms" have to be offered to everyone, including the EU.

[theo]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... kes-market

London property prices are set to fall next year as uncertainty about Britain’s exit from the European Union damps the U.K. housing market, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
London, and especially the priciest areas of the capital’s housing market, will be most affected, with prices dropping 5.6 percent in 2017, according to the consultancy’s predictions. Across the U.K., while property value growth will accelerate to 6.9 percent in 2016, it’s set to slow to 2.6 percent next year.
“Nervousness and uncertainty are starting to show,” said Kay Daniel Neufeld, an economist at Cebr. “We expect to see house-price growth across the U.K. slowing considerably in the fourth quarter of 2016, a trend that is set to continue in 2017.”
While the housing market was already facing headwinds from tax changes before June’s EU referendum, investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the possibility of a so-called hard Brexit. That could see the U.K. giving up membership of Europe’s single market for goods and services to secure greater control of immigration.
Accelerating inflation, increasing unemployment and slowing business investment are all set to weigh on house prices, while curbs on migration and a retreat from the single market could slow demand from international buyers, the Cebr said.

These kind of reports are nonsense. The prime London resi market has been falling for the past 18 months. It has nothing t do with Brexit but everything to do with a air coming out of a bubble. Thankfully in a controlled fashion.

Their speculation on the impact if hard Brexit is just that, speculation. And we won't have a clue what the final deal is in 2017.

Meanwhile the pound is dirt cheap for overseas investors and London is still one of the worlds biggest property markets with a massive under-supply of housing stock. They are piling in having the benefit of a price reduction and sterling impact.

[La soule]

DId that make sense to anyone?

Utter madness

[I like haggis]

External pressure is irrelevant to May. The majority of Conservative voters voted to leave, the ones who are willing to jump ship to UKIP want to reduce immigration, and the only thing she cares about is remaining Prime Minister

That's true, however, she won't remain Prime Minister if she oversees a lot of people being worse off. The anti-immigration is a major issue (it's beyond belief people think migrants are what's straining public services after years of austerity but hey ho). The question becomes when balances are shrinking in people's bank account as a direct result of anti-immigration policy how much will people still value fewer immigrants over single market access?

But my point is I don't think May should be PM, it should be a Brexiteer otherwise the person overseeing all of this doesn't believe in what they're doing (see Johnson, Boris).

[Chuckles1188]

External pressure is irrelevant to May. The majority of Conservative voters voted to leave, the ones who are willing to jump ship to UKIP want to reduce immigration, and the only thing she cares about is remaining Prime Minister

That's true, however, she won't remain Prime Minister if she oversees a lot of people being worse off. The anti-immigration is a major issue (it's beyond belief people think migrants are what's straining public services after years of austerity but hey ho). The question becomes when balances are shrinking in people's bank account as a direct result of anti-immigration policy how much will people still value fewer immigrants over single market access?

But my point is I don't think May should be PM, it should be a Brexiteer otherwise the person overseeing all of this doesn't believe in what they're doing (see Johnson, Boris).

According to the Leavers on here the people accepted that there would be an economic hit in exchange for taking their country back, so by that logic (if you can call it that) people being worse off won't hurt her chances. We will see whether that's actually going to be the case, but at the moment you'd have to say that May is in a Merkel-like position where even if people can't stand her they will most likely look at the rest of the field and decide better the devil they know.

[TranceNRG]

People can't stand May? All the polls coming out confirming Conservatives and May having massive leads. She's more popular in Scotland than the whinger Sturgeon
Of course if you are a lefty you might despise her but that's not true for majority of the country.

[The Sun God]

External pressure is irrelevant to May. The majority of Conservative voters voted to leave, the ones who are willing to jump ship to UKIP want to reduce immigration, and the only thing she cares about is remaining Prime Minister

That's true, however, she won't remain Prime Minister if she oversees a lot of people being worse off. The anti-immigration is a major issue (it's beyond belief people think migrants are what's straining public services after years of austerity but hey ho). The question becomes when balances are shrinking in people's bank account as a direct result of anti-immigration policy how much will people still value fewer immigrants over single market access?

But my point is I don't think May should be PM, it should be a Brexiteer otherwise the person overseeing all of this doesn't believe in what they're doing (see Johnson, Boris).

I was in Brighton recently to see a very old mate of mine who was recovering, having been very very poorly, in hospital. This guy is a fierce as fcuk , retired, Rugby mad ex Forex trader. IMO the epitome of an Englishman.
He was full of compliments for the care he had received from a very touch and go situation but particularly for the staff that had saved his life and the staff nursing him back to recovery.
His consultant was Irish, the senior house doctor was a Frenchman. The nurses that came in and out of his room that afternoon and shared jokes with us were Spanish,Portuguese and Danish. My friend was totally apoplectic at the thoughts that these people might need visa's in the future to do their work or indeed that they might not even get into the UK......... Best the UK start advertising to get all their medicos back from Australia, Dubai etc because you might need them............it will probably cost you though.

[haunch]

Odd that he didn't see any Africans, Indians or filipinos.

[merry!]

Odd that he didn't see any Africans, Indians or filipinos.

i imagine sun god's mates are more bupa than nhs.

[I like haggis]

External pressure is irrelevant to May. The majority of Conservative voters voted to leave, the ones who are willing to jump ship to UKIP want to reduce immigration, and the only thing she cares about is remaining Prime Minister

That's true, however, she won't remain Prime Minister if she oversees a lot of people being worse off. The anti-immigration is a major issue (it's beyond belief people think migrants are what's straining public services after years of austerity but hey ho). The question becomes when balances are shrinking in people's bank account as a direct result of anti-immigration policy how much will people still value fewer immigrants over single market access?

But my point is I don't think May should be PM, it should be a Brexiteer otherwise the person overseeing all of this doesn't believe in what they're doing (see Johnson, Boris).

According to the Leavers on here the people accepted that there would be an economic hit in exchange for taking their country back, so by that logic (if you can call it that) people being worse off won't hurt her chances. We will see whether that's actually going to be the case, but at the moment you'd have to say that May is in a Merkel-like position where even if people can't stand her they will most likely look at the rest of the field and decide better the devil they know.

But then on here and in the media it is also pretty obvious they don't actually believe there will be an economic hit. People have been putting the pound slump down to project fear lies, rank profiteering and 'remoaners talking the market down'. The Daily Mail has even blamed the GBP's slide on the Financial Times. And whilst global markets don't obviously affect your bank balance rising food prices, rising fuel prices, rising commodities prices and rising holiday prices do. (None of that is 'remoaning' before someone claims it is as all have happened as a result the vote). So if there's actual money leaving a bank account that otherwise wouldn't have perhaps the result of an opinion poll before the event comes into question. In the long term there are benefits to leaving the EU (immigration won't actually be reduced though if we intend to grow the economy and maintain the NHS), so it'll be interesting to see if people actually are willing to take an economic hit or whether they just thought it was a lie.

[Lisbon Nick]

You really are clueless. A core principle of the WTO Is with regard to the equality of treatment. The favourable terms you offer to one country cannot be denied to another. These "favourable terms" have to be offered to everyone, including the EU.

So if for example the EU mangages to conclude its trade agreement with Canada, it has to offer similar terms to the USA, Australia, New Zealand and eventually the UK?

[Rocketz]

Michel Barnier being funny on his twitter stream

Michel Barnier ‏@MichelBarnier 1h1 hour ago
EU27 consultations : guess where we are today? (no pun intended)

[Rugby2023]

Wallonia?

[TranceNRG]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

[paddyor]

You really are clueless. A core principle of the WTO Is with regard to the equality of treatment. The favourable terms you offer to one country cannot be denied to another. These "favourable terms" have to be offered to everyone, including the EU.

So if for example the EU mangages to conclude its trade agreement with Canada, it has to offer similar terms to the USA, Australia, New Zealand and eventually the UK?

No TAs are separate. WTO rules are if you put a 10% tariff on say cars for the US then it's 10% for everyone else. You can't single out one say for instance the EU and say your cars are subject to a 20% tariff.

[merry!]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

tbh, doubt the Eurozone states are going anywhere unless the € goes tits up.

reckon brussels will be worried about the danes and swedes though, once they see us in ten years.

[La soule]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

tbh, doubt the Eurozone states are going anywhere unless the € goes tits up.

reckon brussels will be worried about the danes and swedes though, once they see us in ten years.

Under the bridge downtown?

[Rinkals]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

tbh, doubt the Eurozone states are going anywhere unless the € goes tits up.

reckon brussels will be worried about the danes and swedes though, once they see us in ten years.

I'm interested to hear where you expect this growth to come from.

[topofthemoon]

People can't stand May? All the polls coming out confirming Conservatives and May having massive leads. She's more popular in Scotland than the whinger Sturgeon
Of course if you are a lefty you might despise her but that's not true for majority of the country.

You got a source for that?

[merry!]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

tbh, doubt the Eurozone states are going anywhere unless the € goes tits up.

reckon brussels will be worried about the danes and swedes though, once they see us in ten years.

Under the bridge downtown?

[TranceNRG]

People can't stand May? All the polls coming out confirming Conservatives and May having massive leads. She's more popular in Scotland than the whinger Sturgeon
Of course if you are a lefty you might despise her but that's not true for majority of the country.

You got a source for that?

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1367060-pol ... -sturgeon/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09 ... -sturgeon/

Theresa May would win a landslide election increasing Conservative majority.

[merry!]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

tbh, doubt the Eurozone states are going anywhere unless the € goes tits up.

reckon brussels will be worried about the danes and swedes though, once they see us in ten years.

I'm interested to hear where you expect this growth to come from.

same place as it always does; trade.

[fisgard792]

People can't stand May? All the polls coming out confirming Conservatives and May having massive leads. She's more popular in Scotland than the whinger Sturgeon
Of course if you are a lefty you might despise her but that's not true for majority of the country.

You got a source for that?

where do you live again

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/1472 ... _suggests/

[Rinkals]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

tbh, doubt the Eurozone states are going anywhere unless the € goes tits up.

reckon brussels will be worried about the danes and swedes though, once they see us in ten years.

I'm interested to hear where you expect this growth to come from.

same place as it always does; trade.

You've just told your biggest trading partner to get shafted.

Is it really that easy line up a replacement?

[TranceNRG]

Almost a quarter - 24 per cent from a huge sample of 8,000 - chose 'arrogant' to describe Ms Sturgeon, compared to 20 per cent for second-placed Mr Johnson, who led the charge to leave the EU and has previously compared himself to figures including Winston Churchill and James Bond.

She also narrowly came out of top in the ruthless category, pipping Ms May by one per cent. Just four per cent described the First Minister as likeable, with 12 per cent choosing 'smug' as one of their options.

Arrogant, smug whinger sounds about right.

[TranceNRG]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

tbh, doubt the Eurozone states are going anywhere unless the € goes tits up.

reckon brussels will be worried about the danes and swedes though, once they see us in ten years.

I'm interested to hear where you expect this growth to come from.

same place as it always does; trade.

You've just told your biggest trading partner to get shafted.

Is it really that easy line up a replacement?

What UK going to stop trading with Europe? And there'll be other opportunities outside the EU for UK to make trade agreements which wasn't possible before. The sky is not about to fall I'm afraid.

[theo]

Look at what the Europeans actually think of EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... hy-the-eu/

Apart from Eastern European countries, there's not much love for the EU project. Worrying times for the incompetent organisation.

tbh, doubt the Eurozone states are going anywhere unless the € goes tits up.

reckon brussels will be worried about the danes and swedes though, once they see us in ten years.

I'm interested to hear where you expect this growth to come from.

same place as it always does; trade.

You've just told your biggest trading partner to get shafted.

Is it really that easy line up a replacement?

Not yet we haven't.