OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

[MorseCode]

Farage claiming that the Trump administration is willing to offer a trade deal to the UK within 90 days, technically I'm not even sure they're allowed to negotiate one until A50 is activated

on a more serious note, what would a US-UK trade deal actually look like? surely it would just be TTIP dressed up and with the UK f*cked even harder than before?

Just remember any UK /US trade deal done quickly would massively favour the US. Big beats small every time.

True. Just ask Greece.

And Ireland about their Lisbon Treaty referrendum

I would have said the Anglo-Irish Trade War in the 1930s would have been a better example.

Although that's probably more relevant to EU-UK negotiations than the UK-US negotiations.

[openclashXX]

are there any easy trade deals we can do first, I don't really like the idea of going to the big four blocs looking as desperate as we are

[La soule]

are there any easy trade deals we can do first, I don't really like the idea of going to the big four blocs looking as desperate as we are

Yes, Kenya was mentioned.

[openclashXX]

are there any easy trade deals we can do first, I don't really like the idea of going to the big four blocs looking as desperate as we are

Yes, Kenya was mentioned.

cheap tea and coffee

[sewa]

are there any easy trade deals we can do first, I don't really like the idea of going to the big four blocs looking as desperate as we are

Yes, Kenya was mentioned.

cheap tea and coffee

http://exportbritain.org.uk/market-snapshots/kenya.html

Unfortunately you sell them almost nothing

[tiddle]

I'm looking forward to Ireland leaving UK's sphere of influence even more than currently.

That's because you're chippy. I think the UK and Ireland are generally on the same page. Be careful what you wish for.

Agree. Ireland have a lot to lose if there's a hard Brexit. Despite the historical grievances, it's in Ireland's interests that UK economy doesn't suffer. We'r enot that politically different either

[iarmhiman]

I'm looking forward to Ireland leaving UK's sphere of influence even more than currently.

That's because you're chippy. I think the UK and Ireland are generally on the same page. Be careful what you wish for.

Agree. Ireland have a lot to lose if there's a hard Brexit. Despite the historical grievances, it's in Ireland's interests that UK economy doesn't suffer. We'r enot that politically different either

There will be a new normal and that's going to happen regardless as there will be a hard Brexit. There is going to be pain for everyone for a few years at least.

For me though and I hope for the majority of Irish people is that most Irish citizens are happy to remain EU citizens with some economic pain ahead of better economic conditions and out of the EU where we are more dependent on the UK for trade.

[Gavin Duffy]

We have a trade deficit with the UK. A few auld tariffs might suit us.

[Gospel]

For me though and I hope for the majority of Irish people is that most Irish citizens are happy to remain EU citizens with some economic pain ahead of better economic conditions and out of the EU where we are more dependent on the UK for trade.

As I understand things UK exports to the EU are in decline year on year. What's the trend in Ireland? I know the US are your biggest customer.

[openclashXX]

are there any easy trade deals we can do first, I don't really like the idea of going to the big four blocs looking as desperate as we are

Yes, Kenya was mentioned.

cheap tea and coffee

http://exportbritain.org.uk/market-snapshots/kenya.html

Unfortunately you sell them almost nothing

that may well change as the effects of a weaker Pound filter through

[Gavin Duffy]

are there any easy trade deals we can do first, I don't really like the idea of going to the big four blocs looking as desperate as we are

Yes, Kenya was mentioned.

cheap tea and coffee

http://exportbritain.org.uk/market-snapshots/kenya.html

Unfortunately you sell them almost nothing

that may well change as the effects of a weaker Pound filter through

[openclashXX]

http://exportbritain.org.uk/market-snapshots/kenya.html

Unfortunately you sell them almost nothing

that may well change as the effects of a weaker Pound filter through

[iarmhiman]

For me though and I hope for the majority of Irish people is that most Irish citizens are happy to remain EU citizens with some economic pain ahead of better economic conditions and out of the EU where we are more dependent on the UK for trade.

As I understand things UK exports to the EU are in decline year on year. What's the trend in Ireland? I know the US are your biggest customer.

Depends what the export is I guess. Our biggest exports are pharmaceuticals and services. The US are a major consumer of both.

[Mick Mannock]

Farage claiming that the Trump administration is willing to offer a trade deal to the UK within 90 days, technically I'm not even sure they're allowed to negotiate one until A50 is activated

on a more serious note, what would a US-UK trade deal actually look like? surely it would just be TTIP dressed up and with the UK f*cked even harder than before?

Just remember any UK /US trade deal done quickly would massively favour the US. Big beats small every time.

True. Just ask Greece.

And Ireland about their Lisbon Treaty referrendum

That old drum.

Best played more than once

[mikerob]

Its a little bit late to try and stop Indians coming to the Uk

there's nothing wrong with Indians coming here, living here, going to university here, etc

but I'm sceptical about using an influx of Indian students as some sort of economy-reviving magic trick

More visas for students, workers and families is something the Indians want. At best, the UK government is ambivalent, at worst, actively against.

I think foreign students studying in the UK is generally a good thing but I agree that it won't transform the economy.

So with their requirements for visas, the Indians are playing the long game; educating their citizens, building up networks and relationships overseas and they will see the benefits 10, 20 years in the future.

On the other hand, the UK negotiators will be looking for something they can claim as eye-catching and transformational to keep the tabloid press and swivel-eyed loons at bay but which may not amount to much in the long term.

[Gospel]

On the other hand, the UK negotiators will be looking for something they can claim as eye-catching and transformational to keep the tabloid press and swivel-eyed loons at bay but which may not amount to much in the long term.

It's a sideshow. The only people that care are talking heads and news cycles.

[I like haggis]

'Buy American, hire American' and 'we're going to win our trade deals' makes me really optimistic for this UK US trade deal.

[openclashXX]

'Buy American, hire American' and 'we're going to win our trade deals' makes me really optimistic for this UK US trade deal.

quick win for Trump

[Gospel]

The UK can't sign any trade deals for two years. There's no quick win here.

[dr dre2]

For me though and I hope for the majority of Irish people is that most Irish citizens are happy to remain EU citizens with some economic pain ahead of better economic conditions and out of the EU where we are more dependent on the UK for trade.

As I understand things UK exports to the EU are in decline year on year. What's the trend in Ireland? I know the US are your biggest customer.

Depends what the export is I guess. Our biggest exports are pharmaceuticals and services. The US are a major consumer of both.

Both those markets are double Irished to the hilt though. Especially services, which is 42% Google and Facebook etc. Selling adverts elsewhere then booking it in to Ireland, it's phantom GDP.

This graphic splits the UK in to GB and NI. Quite often we make up 2 of the top 4 export markets.

[iarmhiman]

For me though and I hope for the majority of Irish people is that most Irish citizens are happy to remain EU citizens with some economic pain ahead of better economic conditions and out of the EU where we are more dependent on the UK for trade.

As I understand things UK exports to the EU are in decline year on year. What's the trend in Ireland? I know the US are your biggest customer.

Depends what the export is I guess. Our biggest exports are pharmaceuticals and services. The US are a major consumer of both.

Both those markets are double Irished to the hilt though. Especially services, which is 42% Google and Facebook etc. Selling adverts elsewhere then booking it in to Ireland, it's phantom GDP.

This graphic splits the UK in to GB and NI. Quite often we make up 2 of the top 4 export markets.

Still the biggest exports when you unskew the stats. With the double Irish the stats look way bigger than they should. Without the double Irish they are still our biggest exports.

Don't obsess too much about it. We've had this argument plenty of times now. I haven't the energy for another marathon argument.

[dr dre2]

For me though and I hope for the majority of Irish people is that most Irish citizens are happy to remain EU citizens with some economic pain ahead of better economic conditions and out of the EU where we are more dependent on the UK for trade.

As I understand things UK exports to the EU are in decline year on year. What's the trend in Ireland? I know the US are your biggest customer.

Depends what the export is I guess. Our biggest exports are pharmaceuticals and services. The US are a major consumer of both.

Both those markets are double Irished to the hilt though. Especially services, which is 42% Google and Facebook etc. Selling adverts elsewhere then booking it in to Ireland, it's phantom GDP.

This graphic splits the UK in to GB and NI. Quite often we make up 2 of the top 4 export markets.

Still the biggest exports when you unskew the stats. With the double Irish the stats look way bigger than they should. Without the double Irish they are still our biggest exports.

Don't obsess too much about it. We've had this argument plenty of times now. I haven't the energy for another marathon argument.

I'm not. $47bn out of $101bn was computer services. UK the main destination 20% and growing. Jucy that, we're going to eat our portion.

I've been predicting the EU would try to eat it and we would if we left the EU since the first marathon, when the whole Irish contingent were denying it existed. Of course the EU has already tried to take a chunk out of the apple, so thats prediction 1 coming true. There are other juicy sectors too. Yum.

[bimboman]

people are seriously naive if they think the Indians are going to be generous on a trade deal, they're f*cking bullies of the highest order and worse than the EU in terms of maintaining the vested interests of all 29 Indian states

Trade deals are reciprocal, there's plenty of room for a win win with the U.K. And India. You seem to think the UK is pretty useless don't you ?

[openclashXX]

people are seriously naive if they think the Indians are going to be generous on a trade deal, they're f*cking bullies of the highest order and worse than the EU in terms of maintaining the vested interests of all 29 Indian states

Trade deals are reciprocal, there's plenty of room for a win win with the U.K. And India. You seem to think the UK is pretty useless don't you ?

my thoughts are as follows

[bimboman]

Worse case on some goods we will suffer 6% tarif on exports.......

[Chuckles1188]

Worse case on some goods we will suffer 6% tarif on exports.......

Worst case is WTO only and a string of trade disputes stretching into the sunset

[bimboman]

Worse case on some goods we will suffer 6% tarif on exports.......

Worst case is WTO only and a string of trade disputes stretching into the sunset

The vast majority of good under "most favoured nation " rules will mean a WTO imposed tarif of a maximum of 6%,... Why the trade disputes ?

The highest tarif under WTO is 10% on cars.

[Rocketz]

June 1940: Britain’s forgotten attempt to build a European Union

As the UK is heading for a hard Brexit, Andrea Bosco uncovers a largely forgotten attempt by Winston Churchill’s War Cabinet to build a federal union with France. The British proposal included a plan for joint organs of defence, for common foreign, financial, and economic policies, as well as for a common citizenship.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolic ... ean-union/

[fisgard792]

June 1940: Britain’s forgotten attempt to build a European Union

As the UK is heading for a hard Brexit, Andrea Bosco uncovers a largely forgotten attempt by Winston Churchill’s War Cabinet to build a federal union with France. The British proposal included a plan for joint organs of defence, for common foreign, financial, and economic policies, as well as for a common citizenship.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolic ... ean-union/

Yet the British proposal, although favoured by Charles de Gaulle—at that point a junior minister of the French government—who saw it as a means of keeping France in the war, never reached the table of the French Government. The spirit of capitulation, embodied in General Maxime Weygand— Supreme Commander—and Marshal Philippe Pétain—Deputy Prime Minister—prevailed. The spirit of capitulation had permeated the French Government and France submitted herself to the German will, for the second time in seventy years.

[jorwar]

The worthy oriental gentleman is having second thoughts in Sunderland?

"Nissan boss Carlos Ghose has admitted that the car giant's UK investments will be "re-evaluated" if Theresa May delivers a bad Brexit deal, despite last October's high-profile commitment by the firm to build its next Qashqai and X-Trail model at its Sunderland plant.

Nissan's decision - which followed mysterious assurances from the Government about the firm's future terms of trade with Europe - was hailed as a much-needed vote of confidence in post-Brexit vote Britain and a welcome guarantee of thousands of jobs in the North East.

But speaking to reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos today Mr Ghosn made it clear that the French firm's commitment was still conditional and that if the shape of the final Brexit deal is detrimental to Nissan's competitiveness it could yet pull out of UK operations."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 37586.html

[openclashXX]

Worse case on some goods we will suffer 6% tarif on exports.......

tariffs on exports to India range between 0% and 150%, with an average tariff of around 11%

and that's not the worry anyway, it's more that the Govt leaps into shite free trade deals for the sake of short-term political point scoring

[Gospel]

and that's not the worry anyway, it's more that the Govt leaps into shite free trade deals for the sake of short-term political point scoring

Why would they need to score more points? Have you seen the state of the other guy[s]?

[bimboman]

Worse case on some goods we will suffer 6% tarif on exports.......

tariffs on exports to India range between 0% and 150%, with an average tariff of around 11%

and that's not the worry anyway, it's more that the Govt leaps into shite free trade deals for the sake of short-term political point scoring

I was referring more to our EU relationships. Apologise.

Though what India fears importing at 150% is behind me.

[Petej]

and that's not the worry anyway, it's more that the Govt leaps into shite free trade deals for the sake of short-term political point scoring

Why would they need to score more points? Have you seen the state of the other guy[s]?

Because they can get a good job out of it once they leave. When it comes to scumbag chicanery labour and the other parties are rank amateurs compared to the tories.

[openclashXX]

Worse case on some goods we will suffer 6% tarif on exports.......

tariffs on exports to India range between 0% and 150%, with an average tariff of around 11%

and that's not the worry anyway, it's more that the Govt leaps into shite free trade deals for the sake of short-term political point scoring

I was referring more to our EU relationships. Apologise.

Though what India fears importing at 150% is behind me.

India imposes 150% import tariffs on foreign spirits, particularly Scotch whiskey - at one point it actually used to be as high as 500% in 2001 until the WTO negotiated it down

I do look forward to seeing what the UK can offer in order to eliminate that tariff though

[bimboman]

Worse case on some goods we will suffer 6% tarif on exports.......

tariffs on exports to India range between 0% and 150%, with an average tariff of around 11%

and that's not the worry anyway, it's more that the Govt leaps into shite free trade deals for the sake of short-term political point scoring

I was referring more to our EU relationships. Apologise.

Though what India fears importing at 150% is behind me.

India imposes 150% import tariffs on foreign spirits, particularly Scotch whiskey - at one point it actually used to be as high as 500% in 2001 until the WTO negotiated it down

I do look forward to seeing what the UK can offer in order to eliminate that tariff though

Liver transplant expertise ?

[Wyndham Upalot]

Armaments sales have become more narrowed. Of course some will naturally see that as a positive, however it generates massive benefits to the UK as a positive income (ethics withstanding). US to reinforce their global dominance, UK to fall from grace (2/3 position will be lost).

[Petej]

Armaments sales have become more narrowed. Of course some will naturally see that as a positive, however it generates massive benefits to the UK as a positive income (ethics withstanding). US to reinforce their global dominance, UK to fall from grace (2/3 position will be lost).

I expect companies like Rolls-Royce will shrink the UK arm and expand the German and American sides.

[jorwar]

Kamel Ahmed on the bbc news (business) websight:

"One issue where there appears to be some flexibility is the rules that will be put in place to control immigration into the UK.

I asked Mrs May whether the government would consider allowing easier access for EU immigrants than those from outside the union.

And in return gain better access to the single market than offered to non EU states.

"When people voted on the June 23, they did vote for us to take control of our immigration laws for people coming from the EU into the UK," she answered.

"They want the British government to be the government that is making those decisions on their behalf, and that is what we will do.

"At the moment the Home Office is looking at the various systems we could put in place, the various rules that we could put in place and in due course we will be deciding which route to go down."

So, it could be on the table, I asked.

"We are looking at the various systems that are possible at the moment. The key issue for people here in the UK is that we have control - that it is the British government that is deciding our immigration rules."

Which, of course, is not a no"

[openclashXX]

Question for Bimbo - where did you get the 6% tariffs on exports to the EU figure from? Politico seems to think that some tariffs will be as high as 12.8%

According to World Trade Organization rules, British-made cars will face 10 percent tariffs entering Europe once London leaves the EU, while sheep farmers will face 12.8 percent duties on their lamb.

Other companies such as machine makers and Scotch whisky distillers will find themselves facing far higher costs around the world when they crash out of the EU’s many trade agreements, ranging from Canada to South Korea.

Kathy Roussel, head of the Brussels office of AHDB Beef and Lamb, a large livestock lobby, said 95 percent of British lamb exports go to the EU.

“Any disruption there will have a significant impact,” she said. “A tariff of even 12 percent would mean that the U.K. would become less competitive.”

While attention tends to focus on complex EU-wide supply chains in the engineering sector — such as Airbus wings being made in the U.K. — it is also a major issue in the food business, said John Royle, chief livestock advisor at Britain’s National Farmers Union.

British beef is often exported for processing to the Netherlands and Ireland, then re-exported back to Britain as burgers, he said. This could leave May in the unenviable political position of driving up food prices.

“If you have tariffs, do you have it both ways? If so, then all of a sudden, you have to ask what the impact would be on consumers,” Royle said.