OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

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Whether you can or can't actually vote IRL, In, or Out

In
248
60%
Out
167
40%
 
Total votes: 415

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DragsterDriver
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by DragsterDriver »

c69 wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:Apparently Mark Carney is thinking of resigning :uhoh:
He should have kept out of the politics really, he was silly to pipe up with osbourne but tbf- like everybody he didn't see leave winning.
Theresa May should keep her nose out of the BoE's affairs, more like
Carney politicised it, but then he was very close with osbourne. Best thing for everybody is carney to pipe down and get on with the job.
And for May to get some self awareness and realise she is not up to running the country.
Who is?
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DragsterDriver
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by DragsterDriver »

openclashXX wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:Apparently Mark Carney is thinking of resigning :uhoh:
He should have kept out of the politics really, he was silly to pipe up with osbourne but tbf- like everybody he didn't see leave winning.
Theresa May should keep her nose out of the BoE's affairs, more like
Carney politicised it, but then he was very close with osbourne. Best thing for everybody is carney to pipe down and get on with the job.
I agree, the best thing is for Carney to do his job without someone like Theresa May who has no idea how a central bank works telling him how to do it
Tbf- he needed to be put back in his box. Hopefully he won't quit.
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openclashXX
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by openclashXX »

DragsterDriver wrote:
openclashXX wrote: I agree, the best thing is for Carney to do his job without someone like Theresa May who has no idea how a central bank works telling him how to do it
Tbf- he needed to be put back in his box. Hopefully he won't quit.
Theresa May is just on a power trip, she has no right or authority to be telling an independent central bank how to operate
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henry
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by henry »

If Carney does go, I imagine there's a list of suitably qualified and highly experienced candidates queuing around the corner to take, what we all agree, is a hugely attractive job......
bimboman
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

openclashXX wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
openclashXX wrote: I agree, the best thing is for Carney to do his job without someone like Theresa May who has no idea how a central bank works telling him how to do it
Tbf- he needed to be put back in his box. Hopefully he won't quit.
Theresa May is just on a power trip, she has no right or authority to be telling an independent central bank how to operate

And you can tell all that from this distance, :thumbup:
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

DragsterDriver wrote:
bimboman wrote:
paddyor wrote:
bimboman wrote:
If someone pays their taxes and NI shoudldn't they be entitled to avail of state services etc? Child benefit, which isn't that much in the UK, in all likelihood ends up back in the UK economy fairly rapidly(excepting situtations where the immigrants move abroad/back home). Would tax credits not be a better example of unearned benefits?
It's whether they're paying enough tax and NI to cover the bill though, it's disengenuos to argue they're still contributing if the tax paid is less than the services offered.

Child benefit in the UK is a damm sight higher than it is in Lithuania or Poland, again it's a value judgement regarding cheaper services and food being worth the subsidy.
UK
2. What you'll get

There are 2 Child Benefit rates.
Who the allowance is for Rate (weekly)
Eldest or only child £20.70
Additional children £13.70 per child

Lithuania
a child being brought up or cared for in a family is granted and paid 0.75 of the basic amount (LTL 97.50) monthly from birth to the age of 2 if family income per person is less than 1.5 of state supported income (LTL 525);
a child being brought up or cared for in a family is granted and paid 0.4 of the basic amount (LTL 52) monthly from birth to the age of 2 if family income per person is less than 1.5 of state supported income (LTL 525);
when a child is aged between 2 and 7;
when a child is aged between 7 and 17 and living in a family where three or more children are being brought up or cared for.
http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?cat ... &langId=en
http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/con ... GBP&To=LTL
£21 - 80 ltl

Poland
In Poland, child benefit is paid at a rate of £13.60 per month (68 Polish Zloty) for children aged 4 years and under, £18.20 per month (91 Polish Zloty) for children aged between 5 and 18 years and £19.60 per month (98 Polish Zloty) for children aged 18-24 who remain in education.
https://www.google.ie/search?q=child+be ... fit+poland

Have I read that wrong or are you a complete spoofer?It appears to me you icked the wrong 2 countries. Given the disparity in living costs between both places and the UK, child benefit goes a lot further living at home for Polish and Lithuanian nationals.

And they pay more than payroll taxes too. There's consumption taxes and the poll tax too.

are you arguing that Poland and Lithuania pay the same monthly as the UK pays weekly ?
What about the £500 a month working family tax credits? They're basically a child benefit.
I've mentioned it twice, it doesn't count apparently.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

Can anyone confirm what I'm looking at though is 20 quid a week vs 20 quid a month though ?
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

bimboman wrote:Can anyone confirm what I'm looking at though is 20 quid a week vs 20 quid a month though ?
Not sure, tax credits makes it look like peanuts anyway. They are the problem, not dole or anything else, well housing benefit is expensive. Here's what you get........... If they are working 16hrs+ and have kids

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -childcare
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

dr dre2 wrote:
bimboman wrote:Can anyone confirm what I'm looking at though is 20 quid a week vs 20 quid a month though ?
Not sure, tax credits makes it look like peanuts anyway. They are the problem, not dole or anything else, well housing benefit is expensive. Here's what you get........... If they are working 16hrs+ and have kids

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -childcare
Why the fudge would you not come?
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Glaston
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Glaston »

henry wrote:If Carney does go, I imagine there's a list of suitably qualified and highly experienced candidates queuing around the corner to take, what we all agree, is a hugely attractive job......

Dont quite know how but I have seen the name Jacob Rees Mogg mentioned!!!!


People are going bananas over this suggestion, so someone might have put the name up for a bit of leftie baiting.
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Sefton
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Sefton »

Glaston wrote:
henry wrote:If Carney does go, I imagine there's a list of suitably qualified and highly experienced candidates queuing around the corner to take, what we all agree, is a hugely attractive job......

Dont quite know how but I have seen the name Jacob Rees Mogg mentioned!!!!


People are going bananas over this suggestion, so someone might have put the name up for a bit of leftie baiting.
That should be bait for anybody with opposable thumbs.
C69
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by C69 »

Glaston wrote:
henry wrote:If Carney does go, I imagine there's a list of suitably qualified and highly experienced candidates queuing around the corner to take, what we all agree, is a hugely attractive job......

Dont quite know how but I have seen the name Jacob Rees Mogg mentioned!!!!


People are going bananas over this suggestion, so someone might have put the name up for a bit of leftie baiting.
I doubt anyone would be stupid enough to suggest him even with that caveat...oh wait you just did.
Ffs
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Chuckles1188
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Glaston wrote:
henry wrote:If Carney does go, I imagine there's a list of suitably qualified and highly experienced candidates queuing around the corner to take, what we all agree, is a hugely attractive job......

Dont quite know how but I have seen the name Jacob Rees Mogg mentioned!!!!


People are going bananas over this suggestion, so someone might have put the name up for a bit of leftie baiting.
Interesting combination of roles, Governor of BoE and Strictly judge...
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SamShark
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by SamShark »

Jacob Rees Mogg?

He's another one of those "incredibly intelligent" people like Boris.
bimboman
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

SamShark wrote:Jacob Rees Mogg?

He's another one of those "incredibly intelligent" people like Boris.

Actually Rees mogg is v bright.
fisgard792
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by fisgard792 »

openclashXX wrote:
fisgard792 wrote:
openclashXX wrote:EU complete the signing of CETA trade deal with Canada - odds on how close the Euro will get to parity with GBP in the next week?
another person who's going to make a fortune next week with his insight
do I have to explain how basic economics works to you?
look dude, if you believe its basic economics and 'odds on', you'd have to be a prat not to make a few quid out of it
fisgard792
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by fisgard792 »

bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:Jacob Rees Mogg?

He's another one of those "incredibly intelligent" people like Boris.

Actually Rees mogg is v bright.
whats has rees mogg got against the ill and disabled?
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24926 ... olicy=6673
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

:thumbup:

https://www.ft.com/content/5107a124-9eb ... e238dee8e2
Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, is ready to serve a full eight-year term, facing down Brexiter critics campaigning for him to resign ahead of time.

Mr Carney has told friends that he is likely to make a statement on his future this week to put an end to damaging speculation.

The governor is expected to confer with prime minister Theresa May and chancellor Philip Hammond before making a final “personal” decision, potentially ahead of the publication of the BoE’s inflation report on Thursday.

Financial markets, which have pummelled sterling since Britain voted to leave the EU in June, will be watching developments closely for signs of further political uncertainty.

Mr Carney is said to be leaning strongly towards staying in his post. He would like to help steer the UK economy through treacherous waters once the government triggers Article 50 in March 2017, starting a two-year clock on divorce negotiations with Brussels.

“Mid-2018 could be the darkest days for the UK,” said a person familiar with the governor’s thinking.

Friends say that Mr Carney is determined to defend the Bank of England’s independence in the face of a sustained attack by Brexiters, who claim the bank produced doom-laden forecasts for the UK economy to boost the Remain campaign.

Britain’s relatively robust economic performance since the referendum has encouraged prominent Conservatives, including former chancellor Nigel Lawson and Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, to call for the governor’s head.

Daniel Hannan, a Tory MEP and leading Brexiter, added to calls for his resignation, saying: “I am sorry to say this — he seems a nice enough fellow — but Mark Carney should indeed resign. He politicised his office inexcusably.”

Brexiters scented blood after Mrs May suggested at the Conservative party conference that the bank’s ultra-low interest rate policy was hurting savers rather than helping to stave off recession.

Mr Carney was subsequently reassured by Downing Street but restated the boundaries between the BoE’s independence to set policy to hit the government’s target.

After the Tory party conference, he publicly warned that he would not “take instruction” from politicians about how to go about his duties. “The objectives are what are set by the politicians. The policies are done by technocrats,” the governor said.

Until recently, Mrs May and Mr Hammond were confident that he would stay until 2021 rather than stepping down in 2018, serving a full eight-year term.

When Mr Carney accepted the post in 2012, he committed only to serve the first five years of his term but left open the option of extending to the full eight years.

He cited personal circumstances, including the schooling of his four daughters. But in the run-up to the referendum, and with his family settled in London, then-chancellor George Osborne sought to persuade him to serve the full term.

Last week, Mr Carney hedged his bets in testimony to the House of Lords, saying: “It’s an entirely personal decision and no one should read anything into that decision in terms of government policy. It is a privilege for me to have this role.

“Like everyone, I have personal circumstances that I have to manage. This role demands total attention and I intend to give it as long as I can.”
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SamShark
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by SamShark »

bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:Jacob Rees Mogg?

He's another one of those "incredibly intelligent" people like Boris.

Actually Rees mogg is v bright.
How would one know?

Has he done anything particularly notable or is he just a well spoken bloke who was a top notch debater at Oxford, writes a cracking classics essay etc, witty after dinner speaker etc.

I'm slightly disturbed by his voting record and his public pronouncements, none more so than describing Farage as a "good egg".
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SamShark
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by SamShark »

"Justin - remember what we said; Call Theresa May a silly bint in the press conference afterwards and we delete that bit about the tarif on maple syrup"

Image
bimboman
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

SamShark wrote:
bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:Jacob Rees Mogg?

He's another one of those "incredibly intelligent" people like Boris.

Actually Rees mogg is v bright.
How would one know?

Has he done anything particularly notable or is he just a well spoken bloke who was a top notch debater at Oxford, writes a cracking classics essay etc, witty after dinner speaker etc.

I'm slightly disturbed by his voting record and his public pronouncements, none more so than describing Farage as a "good egg".

I hadn't heard the farage comment, he wasn't a mad brexiter (though it's a clear position) , uses language nicely. His voting record is probably "whipped" in the main. Not my wing of the party at all though so boo away.
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Sefton
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Sefton »

So what's your wing, Bimbo?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Sefton wrote:So what's your wing, Bimbo?
Osborne
bimboman
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

Sefton wrote:So what's your wing, Bimbo?

Libertarian, both in markets and society. so liberal right wing. Free market as possible, free speech, love n all that. It's a lonely path out here in brexit Essex.

There's also a pragmatic element, osbourns budget, pro Europe for stability (and influence).
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paddyor
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by paddyor »

bimboman wrote:Can anyone confirm what I'm looking at though is 20 quid a week vs 20 quid a month though ?
My mistake. That it was weekly :blush:
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by iarmhiman »

bimboman wrote:
Sefton wrote:So what's your wing, Bimbo?

Libertarian, both in markets and society. so liberal right wing. Free market as possible, free speech, love n all that. It's a lonely path out here in brexit Essex.

There's also a pragmatic element, osbourns budget, pro Europe for stability (and influence).
I take it you're not happy with Theresa then. More borrowing to come from her, less freedom of movement and WTO rules for trade with the EU.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

5p net gain on every £1 spent on long term EU immigrant.

Assuming average £26,500 earned for the 3,000,000 EU nationals (That's the UK average wage, not all those immigrants are currently long term but if we hit pause now and they are allowed to stay they will down in to that category)

@ the appropriate tax rate it works out at a net benefit to the UK of £4.6bn per year. (Well done whoever said £4bn)

Now

There are 3,000,000 people in wales also, and the budget to service it's infrastructure and provide services, Wales ongoing running costs if you like. With little left over for infrastructure investment currently is £15.3bn. So a reasonable assumption of what it costs to provide maintenance and service to 3m people in the UK on an ongoing basis.

***an adjustment needs to be made, as I'm double counting education. £2bn

So a £8bn loss and a massive squeeze on the existing infrastructure to boot. And next year there will be more... and repeat forever.
Last edited by dr dre2 on Sun Oct 30, 2016 11:47 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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SamShark
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by SamShark »

bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:
bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:Jacob Rees Mogg?

He's another one of those "incredibly intelligent" people like Boris.

Actually Rees mogg is v bright.
How would one know?

Has he done anything particularly notable or is he just a well spoken bloke who was a top notch debater at Oxford, writes a cracking classics essay etc, witty after dinner speaker etc.

I'm slightly disturbed by his voting record and his public pronouncements, none more so than describing Farage as a "good egg".

I hadn't heard the farage comment, he wasn't a mad brexiter (though it's a clear position) , uses language nicely. His voting record is probably "whipped" in the main. Not my wing of the party at all though so boo away.
I'm not just being contrary but how does that make him very bright?

Perhaps he is - I haven't studied him at length - but he seems to be one of those people like Boris who people seem to show an odd deference to because they are posh and on the surface very articulate.

Rees mogg is fairly small fry though. I've heard so many times people say "Boris is incredibly intelligent" but I always wonder why?

Is there more to it than writing witty columns/making statements that make people laugh?
bimboman
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

iarmhiman wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Sefton wrote:So what's your wing, Bimbo?

Libertarian, both in markets and society. so liberal right wing. Free market as possible, free speech, love n all that. It's a lonely path out here in brexit Essex.

There's also a pragmatic element, osbourns budget, pro Europe for stability (and influence).
I take it you're not happy with Theresa then. More borrowing to come from her, less freedom of movement and WTO rules for trade with the EU.

Not happy at all, worse was the tone of the conference and immigrants, plus a stated desire to intervene in markets (which replaces freedom of trade and movement) and all for old fashioned national pride blah blah. So no not happy.
haunch
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by haunch »

She's stopping Osborne's interference in the housing market helptobuy thingy. And Osborne's large rise in the price of labour must have been nice for you to see.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by topofthemoon »

dr dre2 wrote:5p net gain on every £1 spent on long term EU immigrant.

Assuming average £26,500 earned for the 3,000,000 EU nationals (That's the UK average wage, not all those immigrants are currently long term but if we hit pause now and they are allowed to stay they will down in to that category)

@ the appropriate tax rate it works out at a net benefit to the UK of £4.6bn per year. (Well done whoever said £4bn)

Now

There are 3,000,000 people in wales also, and the budget to service it's infrastructure and provide services, Wales ongoing running costs if you like. With little left over for infrastructure investment currently is £15.3bn. So a reasonable assumption of what it costs to provide maintenance and service to 3m people in the UK on an ongoing basis.

***an adjustment needs to be made, as I'm double counting education. £2bn

So a £8bn loss and a massive squeeze on the existing infrastructure to boot. And next year there will be more... and repeat forever.
What is the £15.3bn made up of?
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

topofthemoon wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:5p net gain on every £1 spent on long term EU immigrant.

Assuming average £26,500 earned for the 3,000,000 EU nationals (That's the UK average wage, not all those immigrants are currently long term but if we hit pause now and they are allowed to stay they will down in to that category)

@ the appropriate tax rate it works out at a net benefit to the UK of £4.6bn per year. (Well done whoever said £4bn)

Now

There are 3,000,000 people in wales also, and the budget to service it's infrastructure and provide services, Wales ongoing running costs if you like. With little left over for infrastructure investment currently is £15.3bn. So a reasonable assumption of what it costs to provide maintenance and service to 3m people in the UK on an ongoing basis.

***an adjustment needs to be made, as I'm double counting education. £2bn

So a £8bn loss and a massive squeeze on the existing infrastructure to boot. And next year there will be more... and repeat forever.
What is the £15.3bn made up of?
I edited it to take out education so it's £13.3bn otherwise it would have read 10bn on the bottom line. The things you'd spend on running a country except for those not devolved like welfare, education was included in the net benefit figure and is devolved.

Health, Well-being and Sport, Local Government, Communities and Children, Economy and Infrastructure, Environment and Rural Affairs , Central Services and Administration.
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topofthemoon
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by topofthemoon »

dr dre2 wrote:
topofthemoon wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:5p net gain on every £1 spent on long term EU immigrant.

Assuming average £26,500 earned for the 3,000,000 EU nationals (That's the UK average wage, not all those immigrants are currently long term but if we hit pause now and they are allowed to stay they will down in to that category)

@ the appropriate tax rate it works out at a net benefit to the UK of £4.6bn per year. (Well done whoever said £4bn)

Now

There are 3,000,000 people in wales also, and the budget to service it's infrastructure and provide services, Wales ongoing running costs if you like. With little left over for infrastructure investment currently is £15.3bn. So a reasonable assumption of what it costs to provide maintenance and service to 3m people in the UK on an ongoing basis.

***an adjustment needs to be made, as I'm double counting education. £2bn

So a £8bn loss and a massive squeeze on the existing infrastructure to boot. And next year there will be more... and repeat forever.
What is the £15.3bn made up of?
I edited it to take out education so it's £13.3bn otherwise it would have read 10bn on the bottom line. The things you'd spend on running a country except for those not devolved like welfare, education was included in the net benefit figure and is devolved.

Health, Well-being and Sport, Local Government, Communities and Children, Economy and Infrastructure, Environment and Rural Affairs , Central Services and Administration.
The studies undertaken include a share of all government expenditure so you're double counting everything:

http://www.cream-migration.org/files/Fi ... df#page=26
We compute the net fiscal contribution of different population groups by assigning individuals their share of cost for each item of government expenditure and identifying their contribution to each source of government revenues
You're also ignoring the fact that there has been a net inflow from migrants while the native population has been taking more in expenditure than they are putting in:
Between 2001 and 2011, the net fiscal contributions of recent A10 immigrants amounted to almost £5 billion, those of the other recently arrived European immigrants to £15 billion, and those of recent non-European immigrants to a total of over £5 billion. Remarkably, over the same period, the natives’ fiscal cost amounted to almost £617 billion.
There's also things like the implicit savings from the immigrants' effective education...
between 1995 and 2011 European immigrants endowed the UK labour market with human capital that would have cost £14 billion if it were produced through the British education system.
...and the fact that there are significant fixed government costs which the immigrants contribute to - reducing the cost to the existing population and saving them money.
A substantial additional saving to the UK taxpayer is also created by immigrants’ contributing to ‘pure’ public goods, about £82 billion between 1995 and 2011.
You're also ignoring the fact that the immigrants are also consumers in their own right creating demand and investment and adding to the country's wealth beyond the assessment of their net contribution to the public purse.
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DragsterDriver
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by DragsterDriver »

SamShark wrote:
bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:
bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:Jacob Rees Mogg?

He's another one of those "incredibly intelligent" people like Boris.

Actually Rees mogg is v bright.
How would one know?

Has he done anything particularly notable or is he just a well spoken bloke who was a top notch debater at Oxford, writes a cracking classics essay etc, witty after dinner speaker etc.

I'm slightly disturbed by his voting record and his public pronouncements, none more so than describing Farage as a "good egg".

I hadn't heard the farage comment, he wasn't a mad brexiter (though it's a clear position) , uses language nicely. His voting record is probably "whipped" in the main. Not my wing of the party at all though so boo away.
I'm not just being contrary but how does that make him very bright?

Perhaps he is - I haven't studied him at length - but he seems to be one of those people like Boris who people seem to show an odd deference to because they are posh and on the surface very articulate.

Rees mogg is fairly small fry though. I've heard so many times people say "Boris is incredibly intelligent" but I always wonder why?

Is there more to it than writing witty columns/making statements that make people laugh?
One of the Irish chaps wasn't happy last time I posted it but- a mate of mine was at school with Boris and said he's incredibly intelligent- borderline genius, just plays the idiot extremely well.

/globus
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village
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by village »

Boris won a Kings scholarship to Eton and another scholarship to Oxford. Those don't tend to go to the intellectually underpowered.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by openclashXX »

Boris is truly the smartest politician in Britain, just look how he schemed his way to being Prime Minister
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

topofthemoon wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
topofthemoon wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:5p net gain on every £1 spent on long term EU immigrant.

Assuming average £26,500 earned for the 3,000,000 EU nationals (That's the UK average wage, not all those immigrants are currently long term but if we hit pause now and they are allowed to stay they will down in to that category)

@ the appropriate tax rate it works out at a net benefit to the UK of £4.6bn per year. (Well done whoever said £4bn)

Now

There are 3,000,000 people in wales also, and the budget to service it's infrastructure and provide services, Wales ongoing running costs if you like. With little left over for infrastructure investment currently is £15.3bn. So a reasonable assumption of what it costs to provide maintenance and service to 3m people in the UK on an ongoing basis.

***an adjustment needs to be made, as I'm double counting education. £2bn

So a £8bn loss and a massive squeeze on the existing infrastructure to boot. And next year there will be more... and repeat forever.
What is the £15.3bn made up of?
I edited it to take out education so it's £13.3bn otherwise it would have read 10bn on the bottom line. The things you'd spend on running a country except for those not devolved like welfare, education was included in the net benefit figure and is devolved.

Health, Well-being and Sport, Local Government, Communities and Children, Economy and Infrastructure, Environment and Rural Affairs , Central Services and Administration.
The studies undertaken include a share of all government expenditure so you're double counting everything:

http://www.cream-migration.org/files/Fi ... df#page=26
We compute the net fiscal contribution of different population groups by assigning individuals their share of cost for each item of government expenditure and identifying their contribution to each source of government revenues
You're also ignoring the fact that there has been a net inflow from migrants while the native population has been taking more in expenditure than they are putting in:
Between 2001 and 2011, the net fiscal contributions of recent A10 immigrants amounted to almost £5 billion, those of the other recently arrived European immigrants to £15 billion, and those of recent non-European immigrants to a total of over £5 billion. Remarkably, over the same period, the natives’ fiscal cost amounted to almost £617 billion.
There's also things like the implicit savings from the immigrants' effective education...
between 1995 and 2011 European immigrants endowed the UK labour market with human capital that would have cost £14 billion if it were produced through the British education system.
...and the fact that there are significant fixed government costs which the immigrants contribute to - reducing the cost to the existing population and saving them money.
A substantial additional saving to the UK taxpayer is also created by immigrants’ contributing to ‘pure’ public goods, about £82 billion between 1995 and 2011.
You're also ignoring the fact that the immigrants are also consumers in their own right creating demand and investment and adding to the country's wealth beyond the assessment of their net contribution to the public purse.
Well I must say I missed that hold my hands up and say I'm wrong about the 15/13bn.

Which leaves the 4.6bn as genuine profit, which is £3 a week "profit" per head of EU migrant, and my point still stands about the dilution of existing infrastructure and service as that £3 is hardly enough to pay for much expansion. It's barely enough to pay for a scratch card.

**** I made a mistake somewhere, I've over estimated income tax.
£26,500 earned
£3,100 Taxed (income tax)
That x 0.05 is profit £155
That x population of 3m = £465,000,000 (0.5bn)

**Other taxes need accounting for but Income tax is the bulk of it.

It's 43p per head per day in income tax.[/quote]
Last edited by dr dre2 on Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:04 am, edited 4 times in total.
fisgard792
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by fisgard792 »

village wrote:Boris won a Kings scholarship to Eton and another scholarship to Oxford. Those don't tend to go to the intellectually underpowered.
which makes him all the more culpable for the lies he told campaigning, for which he has not been held to account for
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village
Posts: 3818
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by village »

fisgard792 wrote:
village wrote:Boris won a Kings scholarship to Eton and another scholarship to Oxford. Those don't tend to go to the intellectually underpowered.
which makes him all the more culpable for the lies he told campaigning, for which he has not been held to account for
Perhaps. The same of course can be said of Tony Blair, who is I am sure, also a very smart cookie. Smart people are often also monumental plum.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

dr dre2 wrote:
topofthemoon wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
topofthemoon wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:5p net gain on every £1 spent on long term EU immigrant.

Assuming average £26,500 earned for the 3,000,000 EU nationals (That's the UK average wage, not all those immigrants are currently long term but if we hit pause now and they are allowed to stay they will down in to that category)

@ the appropriate tax rate it works out at a net benefit to the UK of £4.6bn per year. (Well done whoever said £4bn)

Now

There are 3,000,000 people in wales also, and the budget to service it's infrastructure and provide services, Wales ongoing running costs if you like. With little left over for infrastructure investment currently is £15.3bn. So a reasonable assumption of what it costs to provide maintenance and service to 3m people in the UK on an ongoing basis.

***an adjustment needs to be made, as I'm double counting education. £2bn

So a £8bn loss and a massive squeeze on the existing infrastructure to boot. And next year there will be more... and repeat forever.
What is the £15.3bn made up of?
I edited it to take out education so it's £13.3bn otherwise it would have read 10bn on the bottom line. The things you'd spend on running a country except for those not devolved like welfare, education was included in the net benefit figure and is devolved.

Health, Well-being and Sport, Local Government, Communities and Children, Economy and Infrastructure, Environment and Rural Affairs , Central Services and Administration.
The studies undertaken include a share of all government expenditure so you're double counting everything:

http://www.cream-migration.org/files/Fi ... df#page=26
We compute the net fiscal contribution of different population groups by assigning individuals their share of cost for each item of government expenditure and identifying their contribution to each source of government revenues
You're also ignoring the fact that there has been a net inflow from migrants while the native population has been taking more in expenditure than they are putting in:
Between 2001 and 2011, the net fiscal contributions of recent A10 immigrants amounted to almost £5 billion, those of the other recently arrived European immigrants to £15 billion, and those of recent non-European immigrants to a total of over £5 billion. Remarkably, over the same period, the natives’ fiscal cost amounted to almost £617 billion.
There's also things like the implicit savings from the immigrants' effective education...
between 1995 and 2011 European immigrants endowed the UK labour market with human capital that would have cost £14 billion if it were produced through the British education system.
...and the fact that there are significant fixed government costs which the immigrants contribute to - reducing the cost to the existing population and saving them money.
A substantial additional saving to the UK taxpayer is also created by immigrants’ contributing to ‘pure’ public goods, about £82 billion between 1995 and 2011.
You're also ignoring the fact that the immigrants are also consumers in their own right creating demand and investment and adding to the country's wealth beyond the assessment of their net contribution to the public purse.
Well I must say I missed that hold my hands up and say I'm wrong about the 15/13bn.

Which leaves the 4.6bn as genuine profit, which is £3 a week "profit" per head of EU migrant, and my point still stands about the dilution of existing infrastructure and service as that £3 is hardly enough to pay for much expansion. It's barely enough to pay for a scratch card.

**** I made a mistake somewhere, I've over estimated income tax.

£26,500 earned
£3,100 Taxed (income tax)
That x 0.05 is profit £155
That x population of 3m = £465,000,000 (0.5bn)

**Other taxes need accounting for but Income tax is the bulk of it.

It's 43p per head per day in income tax.
Or a fairer way of doing it would be with the average tax take per head.

£7300 (Tax take per head, UK average) x 0.05 (Contribution above that paid back) = £365

X head of population (3,000,000) = 1,095,000,000 (£1bn or so)

Or £1 profit a day per head

But what does £1,095,000,000 cover the cost of?

It takes 3,000,000 to cover the cost of building 6000 houses.
Last edited by dr dre2 on Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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