OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

[Chuckles1188]

Ahhh If, written in tribute to the man behind the catastrophic Jameson Raid. An excellent metaphor for headstrong cluelessness, although like all Kipling's work it seems unlikely that its sarcastic insightfulness was deliberate. Good choice.

[sewa]

For sale: One Nissan, never used.

[Rugby2023]

Sky are saying May also promised Nissan we'll be staying in the customs union.

Isn't that a Faisal Islam opinion piece as opposed to any confirmed news?

[paddyor]

No, the biggest market is the single market.....'skinda the point.If it makes such good sense from a business standpoint then WTF is May doing giving them state supports?

FYI, the Germans aren't even the biggest car manufacturers in Europe.

Source? this indicates to the contrary http://www.oica.net/category/production ... tatistics/

Will have a look later. It may have been per worker or per capita.

[piquant]

Sky are saying May also promised Nissan we'll be staying in the customs union.

So Brexit means nothing then. I see war criminal in chief Tony Blair says they will hold a second referendum to reverse the catastrophe of the Brexit vote. You can say what you like about Blair but he is a smart politician, I doubt he'd say this if it wasn't at least a good possibility

He was being interviewed on Today earlier, and what he said was along the lines of once the Brexit plan is outlined that should be set to the country via a second referendum, or via a general election. Blair is obviously very worried about the costs associated with Brexit, but he didn't say there had to be or should be a 2nd referendum.

He also seems worried that in a general election it's a choice between Brexit and Tories and a Labour party that' veered away from the chance people might vote for them. Though he also noted it's for those active in politics to address, that he doesn't see it as a requirement that a new party be born to cater for those more in the middle and pro European, and that he will not be leaving the Labour party.

[Chuckles1188]

Good article on the Nissan deal by Jonathan Portes:

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/nissan-brex ... BMJgeMrK9L

Today’s GDP figures suggest that the immediate economic impact of the Brexit vote has, at least up until September, been modest. Contrary to most forecasts, there isn’t much evidence to suggest that increased uncertainty has, as yet, translated into reduced consumer spending or business activity. Of course, this says almost nothing at all about the long-term economic impacts of Brexit; and it is that is the focus of most of the serious independent analysis of the impact of Brexit. Recession is bad, but a permanent long-term hit to growth is worse. .

But far more significant to the long-term prospects of the UK economy than one quarter’s GDP figures is the announcement that, despite the risks to the UK’s trading links with continental Europe, car manufacturer Nissan will build two new models at its Sunderland plant. But Nissan exacted a price for this commitment. According to Reuters:

Britain has given Nissan a written commitment of extra support in the event that Brexit reduces the competitiveness of its Sunderland plant, in return for new production investments by the Japanese carmaker, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. In addition to unconditional investment aid, Britain pledged in a letter to offer further relief if the terms of Britain's European Union exit ended up harming the plant's performance, the source said.

Nissan is only one company, and its Sunderland facility is only one plant. But the implications of this for UK economic policy – both domestically and internationally – are potentially far reaching. Most obviously, Nissan may be the first to get this treatment, but it seems inconceivable that it will be the last. The UK car industry is almost entirely foreign-owned, and it is hardly likely that other firms will not seek similar treatment.

And that raises a broader question. Since Prime Minister May took office, here has been much talk about a new “industrial strategy”; indeed, we now have a department with the words “Industrial Strategy” in its title. The Nissan deal may, on its own terms, be the right thing to do; Nissan is a major, high-tech manufacturer in a relatively deprived area of the UK with few other big employers and a significant local supply chain. But responding to an auto manufacturer’s threat to take its production elsewhere by writing an (admittedly conditional and post-dated) cheque is not a strategy.

Is Nissan “special” anyway? Nissan employs 7,000 people in the UK and is a major exporter. On the other hand, so is Citibank, which employs 9,000; and financial service exports are at least as much under threat as cars, if not more so. And the value of the financial sector to the UK – in terms of employment, output or value-added – far exceeds that of cars. So the list of potential supplicants is very long – research in the run-up to the referendum suggested that at least 3 million jobs are “dependent” on exports to the EU. So – before other chief executives start lining up along Victoria Street in order to collect their handouts – the government will need to define who and what it is going to support, and why.

And it’s not clear that compensating a sector – or a region- that might lose from Brexit is the right place to start. Every government that launches an “industrial strategy” claims that it’s not about “picking winners”. Equally, cynical observers point out that “picking winners” isn’t really the problem. Any industrial strategy worthy of the name needs to take some risks; that in turn means it will pick some “losers”. It’s unpicking the loser that is the hard bit. But this raises an obvious issue with respect to using “industrial strategy” to help industries, sectors or towns that will suffer as a result of Brexit. Brexit will inevitably lead to some reorientation of trade away from continental Europe to the rest of the world; indeed, that was precisely the rationale for Brexit advanced by many of its proponents. That – independently of whether Brexit is beneficial or damaging overall - will lead to winners and losers, as does any significant economic change. And the UK economy will have to adjust. A forward- looking industrial strategy should promote that adjustment and enable the “winners” to take advantage of new opportunities; not compensate or prop up the losers at the expense of already stretched public purse. But so far it’s the latter that appears to be the plan. Nor does it make sense to use industrial policy – which should be aimed at improving productivity - as a substitute for regional policy.

Finally, it is difficult to see how today’s announcement will not complicate the UK’s negotiations with the EU and, perhaps, other countries. We don’t know exactly what the government has promised Nissan. But “state aid” is carefully regulated under EU law; and even conditional assurances might in principle qualify. And, once we’ve left the EU, export subsidies are generally prohibited by World Trade Organisation rules – certainly ones that aim to compensate directly for the imposition of tariffs. Even if immediate legal action seems unlikely, the prospect that the UK will actively seek to promote exports through direct, company-specific measures is unlikely to make it easier for us to reach a comprehensive trade agreement with either our EU partners or third countries.

[DAC2016]

It does make me laugh, anything, ANYTHING positive happening to the country is still given the spin treatment to make it negative.

For example, regaining control of our fishing waters.

[sewa]

Sky are saying May also promised Nissan we'll be staying in the customs union.

So Brexit means nothing then. I see war criminal in chief Tony Blair says they will hold a second referendum to reverse the catastrophe of the Brexit vote. You can say what you like about Blair but he is a smart politician, I doubt he'd say this if it wasn't at least a good possibility

He was being interviewed on Today earlier, and what he said was along the lines of once the Brexit plan is outlined that should be set to the country via a second referendum, or via a general election. Blair is obviously very worried about the costs associated with Brexit, but he didn't say there had to be or should be a 2nd referendum.

He also seems worried that in a general election it's a choice between Brexit and Tories and a Labour party that' veered away from the chance people might vote for them. Though he also noted it's for those active in politics to address, that he doesn't see it as a requirement that a new party be born to cater for those more in the middle and pro European, and that he will not be leaving the Labour party.

I didn't see the interview but this is the headline on the Telegraph

''Tony Blair suggests a second referendum to reverse 'catastrophe' of the Brexit vote, as he calls on Remainers to moblise''

[jorwar]

Ahhh If, written in tribute to the man behind the catastrophic Jameson Raid. An excellent metaphor for headstrong cluelessness, although like all Kipling's work it seems unlikely that its sarcastic insightfulness was deliberate. Good choice.

Cameron was fond of no ifs or buts.
Remember him?

[jorwar]

It does make me laugh, anything, ANYTHING positive happening to the country is still given the spin treatment to make it negative.

For example, regaining control of our fishing waters.

DAC sleeps with the fishes.

[Laurent]

It does make me laugh, anything, ANYTHING positive happening to the country is still given the spin treatment to make it negative.

For example, regaining control of our fishing waters.

DAC sleeps with the fishes.

not the brown ones.

[piquant]

Sky are saying May also promised Nissan we'll be staying in the customs union.

So Brexit means nothing then. I see war criminal in chief Tony Blair says they will hold a second referendum to reverse the catastrophe of the Brexit vote. You can say what you like about Blair but he is a smart politician, I doubt he'd say this if it wasn't at least a good possibility

He was being interviewed on Today earlier, and what he said was along the lines of once the Brexit plan is outlined that should be set to the country via a second referendum, or via a general election. Blair is obviously very worried about the costs associated with Brexit, but he didn't say there had to be or should be a 2nd referendum.

He also seems worried that in a general election it's a choice between Brexit and Tories and a Labour party that' veered away from the chance people might vote for them. Though he also noted it's for those active in politics to address, that he doesn't see it as a requirement that a new party be born to cater for those more in the middle and pro European, and that he will not be leaving the Labour party.

I didn't see the interview but this is the headline on the Telegraph

''Tony Blair suggests a second referendum to reverse 'catastrophe' of the Brexit vote, as he calls on Remainers to moblise''

It's far from only the Torygraph, but it's a rancid process that sees assistant editors running with headlines that are more inflammatory than need be the case. I understand they want to build their reader base, and they want people to be drawn to articles, but still it stinks - and this isn't even an especially unreasonable headline

Edit - I've just seen this story on the Beeb, and they went with 'Options must stay open on Brexit' and noted in the article a second referendum might be a possibility.

[jorwar]

It does make me laugh, anything, ANYTHING positive happening to the country is still given the spin treatment to make it negative.

For example, regaining control of our fishing waters.

DAC sleeps with the fishes.

not the brown ones.

He likes to polish those.

[paddyor]

Don't think Theresa is inclined to have a global free for all just now, thanks very much.
The Tories have already abandoned any hopes of balancing the nations books and economic uncertainty or chaos is the last thing she wants.

No they haven't. They are still clearly being sensible and want to reduce the deficit but they won't set a target date like Cameron government. It's basically still running a responsible fiscal policy - anti Labour/McDonnell unicorn policy.

They've promised spending increases and are considering tax cuts /state aid. Nothing done yet obv, but it's a bit of a departure.

[jorwar]

Don't think Theresa is inclined to have a global free for all just now, thanks very much.
The Tories have already abandoned any hopes of balancing the nations books and economic uncertainty or chaos is the last thing she wants.

No they haven't. They are still clearly being sensible and want to reduce the deficit but they won't set a target date like Cameron government. It's basically still running a responsible fiscal policy - anti Labour/McDonnell unicorn policy.

They've promised spending increases and are considering tax cuts /state aid. Nothing done yet obv, but it's a bit of a departure.

They've grown their very own money tree?

[TranceNRG]

Don't think Theresa is inclined to have a global free for all just now, thanks very much.
The Tories have already abandoned any hopes of balancing the nations books and economic uncertainty or chaos is the last thing she wants.

No they haven't. They are still clearly being sensible and want to reduce the deficit but they won't set a target date like Cameron government. It's basically still running a responsible fiscal policy - anti Labour/McDonnell unicorn policy.

They've promised spending increases and are considering tax cuts /state aid. Nothing done yet obv, but it's a bit of a departure.

They've grown their very own money tree?

No that's Corbyn and McDonnell

[Laurent]

Don't think Theresa is inclined to have a global free for all just now, thanks very much.
The Tories have already abandoned any hopes of balancing the nations books and economic uncertainty or chaos is the last thing she wants.

No they haven't. They are still clearly being sensible and want to reduce the deficit but they won't set a target date like Cameron government. It's basically still running a responsible fiscal policy - anti Labour/McDonnell unicorn policy.

They've promised spending increases and are considering tax cuts /state aid. Nothing done yet obv, but it's a bit of a departure.

They've grown their very own money tree?

No that's Silvernomics

Fixed

[Tim.]

Goes to buy a new MacBook this morning: increased by £400.
Goes to buy Dell XPS instead, increased by 20%.
Thinks fudge it I'll wait and buy a new computer in the US after that wedding I really should book flights for. Looks up the cost of flights... *sighs*

[sewa]

I do like the Daily Mash's take on it, British pride restored by grovelling to Japanese car company

[La soule]

Goes to buy a new MacBook this morning: increased by £400.
Goes to buy Dell XPS instead, increased by 20%.
Thinks f**k it I'll wait and buy a new computer in the US after that wedding I really should book flights for. Looks up the cost of flights... *sighs*

That really sucks though.

[DAC2016]

Goes to buy a new MacBook this morning: increased by £400.
Goes to buy Dell XPS instead, increased by 20%.
Thinks f**k it I'll wait and buy a new computer in the US after that wedding I really should book flights for. Looks up the cost of flights... *sighs*

The brand new one?

[Tim.]

Goes to buy a new MacBook this morning: increased by £400.
Goes to buy Dell XPS instead, increased by 20%.
Thinks f**k it I'll wait and buy a new computer in the US after that wedding I really should book flights for. Looks up the cost of flights... *sighs*

The brand new one?

Yes the brand new one. I was hardly going to buy a model that was about to a replaced.

[bimboman]

This Nissan subsidy from the UK govt is proof that Brexit is not going to work. How many similar deals are they going to do with multinationals to keep them all in the UK?

The answer is they can't do any, state aid of any kind is prohibited under WTO rules. If they go this route no major economy will deal with them. This just makes it a global exit. She must have given them assurances they were staying in the single market which of course means she will have to scupper Brexit at her first oppurtunity

And of course everyone scrupulously keeps to it. Let's not pretend there aren't a million well practiced loop holes and ways for governments to cut sweet deals with corporations in return for FDI.

There are of course, nations do not go advertising them internationally as the Uk has done in this case because it forces other countries to react. The point is to keep them on the QT. Are the Tories really that thick?

An Irish with Dutch connections lecturing on state aid deals

[sewa]

An Irish with Dutch connections lecturing on state aid deals

We work within the system, if you have an accusation to make then please prove it. This Apple nonsense will all disappear once everyone realises we were working to the letter of if not the intent of the law

[La soule]

This Nissan subsidy from the UK govt is proof that Brexit is not going to work. How many similar deals are they going to do with multinationals to keep them all in the UK?

The answer is they can't do any, state aid of any kind is prohibited under WTO rules. If they go this route no major economy will deal with them. This just makes it a global exit. She must have given them assurances they were staying in the single market which of course means she will have to scupper Brexit at her first oppurtunity

And of course everyone scrupulously keeps to it. Let's not pretend there aren't a million well practiced loop holes and ways for governments to cut sweet deals with corporations in return for FDI.

There are of course, nations do not go advertising them internationally as the Uk has done in this case because it forces other countries to react. The point is to keep them on the QT. Are the Tories really that thick?

An Irish with Dutch connections lecturing on state aid deals

Don't dish the Dutch - They managed to sell ABN Amro to RBS jus before the crash. Smart bunch.

[bimboman]

So, the Nissan deal is the canary in the mine. It is clear that the British government have made the commitment to not leave the customs union. This means Liam fox's job is redundant and talk of amazing trade deals with other countries is simple nonsense. However, whilst a country can be part of the customs union that does not include membership of the single market. Nor does the customs union cover services. It would appear that the Tory government has decided to protect manufacturing and employment above the needs of the city. They have decided to gamble that the shift out of the city of London will be minimal and that the sheer weight of London will mean that not many jobs will be lost. Then may be right. But they may be wrong and the consequences for the tax base in this country would be catastrophic.

Why would the customs union affect our ability to strike trade deals ?

[bimboman]

dish the Dutch - They managed to sell ABN Amro to RBS jus before the crash. Smart bunch.

And still had to bail out what was left behind.

[bimboman]

An Irish with Dutch connections lecturing on state aid deals

We work within the system, if you have an accusation to make then please prove it. This Apple nonsense will all disappear once everyone realises we were working to the letter of if not the intent of the law

Why will we break the law?

[sewa]

An Irish with Dutch connections lecturing on state aid deals

We work within the system, if you have an accusation to make then please prove it. This Apple nonsense will all disappear once everyone realises we were working to the letter of if not the intent of the law

Why will we break the law?

Given no one knows for sure what you gave Nissan bar the folks involved how exactly am I supposed to answer that?

[Zico]

So many questions, so few answers.

[La soule]

dish the Dutch - They managed to sell ABN Amro to RBS jus before the crash. Smart bunch.

And still had to bail out what was left behind.

And have rebuilt it nicely since.

Smarter than RBS.

[village]

Ahhh If, written in tribute to the man behind the catastrophic Jameson Raid. An excellent metaphor for headstrong cluelessness, although like all Kipling's work it seems unlikely that its sarcastic insightfulness was deliberate. Good choice.

Whereas you chose an Irish nationalist's hysterical prophecies of doom. Apt as well for this thread.

[Chuckles1188]

Ahhh If, written in tribute to the man behind the catastrophic Jameson Raid. An excellent metaphor for headstrong cluelessness, although like all Kipling's work it seems unlikely that its sarcastic insightfulness was deliberate. Good choice.

Whereas you chose an Irish nationalist's hysterical prophecies of doom. Apt as well for this thread.

"Hysterical"

[bimboman]

An Irish with Dutch connections lecturing on state aid deals

We work within the system, if you have an accusation to make then please prove it. This Apple nonsense will all disappear once everyone realises we were working to the letter of if not the intent of the law

Why will we break the law?

Given no one knows for sure what you gave Nissan bar the folks involved how exactly am I supposed to answer that?

I'd probably wait then.

[TranceNRG]

Ahhh If, written in tribute to the man behind the catastrophic Jameson Raid. An excellent metaphor for headstrong cluelessness, although like all Kipling's work it seems unlikely that its sarcastic insightfulness was deliberate. Good choice.

Whereas you chose an Irish nationalist's hysterical prophecies of doom. Apt as well for this thread.

"Hysterical"

They are. All prophecies of doom so far have been pretty much that.

[DAC2016]

Goes to buy a new MacBook this morning: increased by £400.
Goes to buy Dell XPS instead, increased by 20%.
Thinks f**k it I'll wait and buy a new computer in the US after that wedding I really should book flights for. Looks up the cost of flights... *sighs*

The brand new one?

Yes the brand new one. I was hardly going to buy a model that was about to a replaced.

Well it's gone up everywhere, unless you are saying that Brexit affected the price in Europe?

[Tim.]

Goes to buy a new MacBook this morning: increased by £400.
Goes to buy Dell XPS instead, increased by 20%.
Thinks f**k it I'll wait and buy a new computer in the US after that wedding I really should book flights for. Looks up the cost of flights... *sighs*

The brand new one?

Yes the brand new one. I was hardly going to buy a model that was about to a replaced.

Well it's gone up everywhere, unless you are saying that Brexit affected the price in Europe?

No the whole line has increased roughly in the UK. Other countries saw a bump on new models.

The Mac mini now costs £479 (previously £399), the iMac 4K is now £1,449 (up from £1,199), and the iMac 5K now starts at £1,749 (up from £1,449). Even the Mac Pro — a product that has not had a spec increase since 2013 — received a price bump from £2,499 to £2,999.

It wasn't supposed to be a deeply serious post. Tis true though.

[bimboman]

Goes to buy a new MacBook this morning: increased by £400.
Goes to buy Dell XPS instead, increased by 20%.
Thinks f**k it I'll wait and buy a new computer in the US after that wedding I really should book flights for. Looks up the cost of flights... *sighs*

The brand new one?

Yes the brand new one. I was hardly going to buy a model that was about to a replaced.

Well it's gone up everywhere, unless you are saying that Brexit affected the price in Europe?

They've got a tax bill to pay.

[nardol]

dish the Dutch - They managed to sell ABN Amro to RBS jus before the crash. Smart bunch.

And still had to bail out what was left behind.

Dutch have made profits on their bailouts to date. Abn if remainder sold at current price also.

Rbs ... Not so much.

[bimboman]

dish the Dutch - They managed to sell ABN Amro to RBS jus before the crash. Smart bunch.

And still had to bail out what was left behind.

Dutch have made profits on their bailouts to date. Abn if remainder sold at current price also.

Rbs ... Not so much.

RBS hasn't been sold yet.