OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

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Whether you can or can't actually vote IRL, In, or Out

In
248
60%
Out
167
40%
 
Total votes: 415

La soule
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by La soule »

bimboman wrote:
nardol wrote:
bimboman wrote:
dish the Dutch - They managed to sell ABN Amro to RBS jus before the crash. Smart bunch.
And still had to bail out what was left behind.
Dutch have made profits on their bailouts to date. Abn if remainder sold at current price also.

Rbs ... Not so much.

RBS hasn't been sold yet.

Nobody wants it.
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Laurent
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Laurent »

sewa wrote:I do like the Daily Mash's take on it, British pride restored by grovelling to Japanese/Renault car company :lol:
fixed
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paddyor
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by paddyor »

bimboman wrote:
DAC2016 wrote:
Tim. wrote:
DAC2016 wrote:
Tim. wrote:Goes to buy a new MacBook this morning: increased by £400.
Goes to buy Dell XPS instead, increased by 20%.
Thinks f**k it I'll wait and buy a new computer in the US after that wedding I really should book flights for. Looks up the cost of flights... *sighs*
The brand new one?
Yes the brand new one. I was hardly going to buy a model that was about to a replaced.
Well it's gone up everywhere, unless you are saying that Brexit affected the price in Europe?

They've got a tax bill to pay.
Pretty sure they can spare the change.
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Zico
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Zico »

bimboman wrote:They've got a tax bill to pay.
Why doesn't Britain tax the money when it lands in their over-seas territories?

Britain complains about low corporation tax rates in other countries while facilitating tax avoidance at the expense of their own tax payers by subsidising tax havens. It's taking the piss really. Maybe without Britain to block action against it the EU can do something about their dodgy tax havens after Brexit. :)
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:Good article on the Nissan deal by Jonathan Portes:

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/nissan-brex ... BMJgeMrK9L
Today’s GDP figures suggest that the immediate economic impact of the Brexit vote has, at least up until September, been modest. Contrary to most forecasts, there isn’t much evidence to suggest that increased uncertainty has, as yet, translated into reduced consumer spending or business activity. Of course, this says almost nothing at all about the long-term economic impacts of Brexit; and it is that is the focus of most of the serious independent analysis of the impact of Brexit. Recession is bad, but a permanent long-term hit to growth is worse. .

But far more significant to the long-term prospects of the UK economy than one quarter’s GDP figures is the announcement that, despite the risks to the UK’s trading links with continental Europe, car manufacturer Nissan will build two new models at its Sunderland plant. But Nissan exacted a price for this commitment. According to Reuters:
Britain has given Nissan a written commitment of extra support in the event that Brexit reduces the competitiveness of its Sunderland plant, in return for new production investments by the Japanese carmaker, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. In addition to unconditional investment aid, Britain pledged in a letter to offer further relief if the terms of Britain's European Union exit ended up harming the plant's performance, the source said.
Nissan is only one company, and its Sunderland facility is only one plant. But the implications of this for UK economic policy – both domestically and internationally – are potentially far reaching. Most obviously, Nissan may be the first to get this treatment, but it seems inconceivable that it will be the last. The UK car industry is almost entirely foreign-owned, and it is hardly likely that other firms will not seek similar treatment.

And that raises a broader question. Since Prime Minister May took office, here has been much talk about a new “industrial strategy”; indeed, we now have a department with the words “Industrial Strategy” in its title. The Nissan deal may, on its own terms, be the right thing to do; Nissan is a major, high-tech manufacturer in a relatively deprived area of the UK with few other big employers and a significant local supply chain. But responding to an auto manufacturer’s threat to take its production elsewhere by writing an (admittedly conditional and post-dated) cheque is not a strategy.

Is Nissan “special” anyway? Nissan employs 7,000 people in the UK and is a major exporter. On the other hand, so is Citibank, which employs 9,000; and financial service exports are at least as much under threat as cars, if not more so. And the value of the financial sector to the UK – in terms of employment, output or value-added – far exceeds that of cars. So the list of potential supplicants is very long – research in the run-up to the referendum suggested that at least 3 million jobs are “dependent” on exports to the EU. So – before other chief executives start lining up along Victoria Street in order to collect their handouts – the government will need to define who and what it is going to support, and why.

And it’s not clear that compensating a sector – or a region- that might lose from Brexit is the right place to start. Every government that launches an “industrial strategy” claims that it’s not about “picking winners”. Equally, cynical observers point out that “picking winners” isn’t really the problem. Any industrial strategy worthy of the name needs to take some risks; that in turn means it will pick some “losers”. It’s unpicking the loser that is the hard bit. But this raises an obvious issue with respect to using “industrial strategy” to help industries, sectors or towns that will suffer as a result of Brexit. Brexit will inevitably lead to some reorientation of trade away from continental Europe to the rest of the world; indeed, that was precisely the rationale for Brexit advanced by many of its proponents. That – independently of whether Brexit is beneficial or damaging overall - will lead to winners and losers, as does any significant economic change. And the UK economy will have to adjust. A forward- looking industrial strategy should promote that adjustment and enable the “winners” to take advantage of new opportunities; not compensate or prop up the losers at the expense of already stretched public purse. But so far it’s the latter that appears to be the plan. Nor does it make sense to use industrial policy – which should be aimed at improving productivity - as a substitute for regional policy.

Finally, it is difficult to see how today’s announcement will not complicate the UK’s negotiations with the EU and, perhaps, other countries. We don’t know exactly what the government has promised Nissan. But “state aid” is carefully regulated under EU law; and even conditional assurances might in principle qualify. And, once we’ve left the EU, export subsidies are generally prohibited by World Trade Organisation rules – certainly ones that aim to compensate directly for the imposition of tariffs. Even if immediate legal action seems unlikely, the prospect that the UK will actively seek to promote exports through direct, company-specific measures is unlikely to make it easier for us to reach a comprehensive trade agreement with either our EU partners or third countries.
See when the source is revealed to be something like this;
a source with knowledge of the matter


It's usually a pile of shit.
"There's no cheque book. I don't have a cheque book,"
Business Secretary Greg Clark
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37795464
haunch
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by haunch »

Belfast high court rejects challenge to article 50

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37796836
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unseenwork
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by unseenwork »

haunch wrote:Belfast high court rejects challenge to article 50

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37796836
There are still some trials in the works and this one might be taken to a higher court, hopefully more drastic measures don't have to be taken to avoid this tyranny.
jorwar
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by jorwar »

Simon Jenkins in the Guardian:

"The British government complains when international companies are offered sweetheart deals from Ireland, Luxembourg or Monaco. When investment becomes a free-for-all, there is a rush to the bottom. Countries compete with each other, either to subsidise business or – the same thing – to excuse them taxes or compensate them for tariffs. The prospect under a “hard” Brexit, and a reversion to World Trade Organisation tariffs, would result in myriad such deals, day in, day out. And when clout is the issue, one thing is for sure: the smaller the business the less clout.

Ever since the industrial revolution, free trade has been one of the greatest boons that politics has brought to mankind. The idea that it should start to unravel within the European cradle of that revolution is appalling. Soft Brexit is a no-brainer. Britain has to trade openly with Europe and Europe with Britain."

We will have the likes of Liam Fox leading the charge for us :lol:
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

unseenwork wrote:
haunch wrote:Belfast high court rejects challenge to article 50

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37796836
There are still some trials in the works and this one might be taken to a higher court, hopefully more drastic measures don't have to be taken to avoid this tyranny.
You're going to blow up a chippie, aren't you :frown:
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unseenwork
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by unseenwork »

dr dre2 wrote:
unseenwork wrote:
haunch wrote:Belfast high court rejects challenge to article 50

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37796836
There are still some trials in the works and this one might be taken to a higher court, hopefully more drastic measures don't have to be taken to avoid this tyranny.
You're going to blow up a chippie, aren't you :frown:
Christ on a bike man no, I'm talking about encouraging my local representatives to collapse the Assembly, starting a move towards a border poll.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

unseenwork wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
unseenwork wrote:
haunch wrote:Belfast high court rejects challenge to article 50

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37796836
There are still some trials in the works and this one might be taken to a higher court, hopefully more drastic measures don't have to be taken to avoid this tyranny.
You're going to blow up a chippie, aren't you :frown:
Christ on a bike man no, I'm talking about encouraging my local representatives to collapse the Assembly, starting a move towards a border poll.
But if that fails, it's a nail bomb in a cafe for sure? :(
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unseenwork
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by unseenwork »

dr dre2 wrote:
unseenwork wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
unseenwork wrote:
haunch wrote:Belfast high court rejects challenge to article 50

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37796836
There are still some trials in the works and this one might be taken to a higher court, hopefully more drastic measures don't have to be taken to avoid this tyranny.
You're going to blow up a chippie, aren't you :frown:
Christ on a bike man no, I'm talking about encouraging my local representatives to collapse the Assembly, starting a move towards a border poll.
But if that fails, it's a nail bomb in a cafe for sure? :(
No one ever wants to see a return to that. And whoever would even countenance that should be hounded out from our society.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

No one ever wants to see a return to that. And whoever would even countenance that should be hounded out from our society.
You're fooling nobody :frown:
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

Angela Merkel has lost it completely :lol: :lol:

She's calling for Google & Facebook to release their algorithms because she fears they are slanted against her political opinion. Sociopath control freak goes all conspiracy theory and gets controllier as she looses control.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/angel ... 83811.html
piquant
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by piquant »

bimboman wrote:
Adetroy wrote:So, the Nissan deal is the canary in the mine. It is clear that the British government have made the commitment to not leave the customs union. This means Liam fox's job is redundant and talk of amazing trade deals with other countries is simple nonsense. However, whilst a country can be part of the customs union that does not include membership of the single market. Nor does the customs union cover services. It would appear that the Tory government has decided to protect manufacturing and employment above the needs of the city. They have decided to gamble that the shift out of the city of London will be minimal and that the sheer weight of London will mean that not many jobs will be lost. Then may be right. But they may be wrong and the consequences for the tax base in this country would be catastrophic.

Why would the customs union affect our ability to strike trade deals ?
It's far from clear we could leave the EU and remain in the customs union, but supposing we did we might well find we can't just go and make third party trade agreements, rather we might be tied into whatever deal the other nations in the customs union agree to. Further until we actual clarify what our deal with the EU is (including with regards to the custom union) it's going to make it very hard to actually have any other trade agreements as anyone we do a deal with will (quite reasonably) want to know what our position with the EU is
jorwar
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by jorwar »

piquant wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Adetroy wrote:So, the Nissan deal is the canary in the mine. It is clear that the British government have made the commitment to not leave the customs union. This means Liam fox's job is redundant and talk of amazing trade deals with other countries is simple nonsense. However, whilst a country can be part of the customs union that does not include membership of the single market. Nor does the customs union cover services. It would appear that the Tory government has decided to protect manufacturing and employment above the needs of the city. They have decided to gamble that the shift out of the city of London will be minimal and that the sheer weight of London will mean that not many jobs will be lost. Then may be right. But they may be wrong and the consequences for the tax base in this country would be catastrophic.

Why would the customs union affect our ability to strike trade deals ?
It's far from clear we could leave the EU and remain in the customs union, but supposing we did we might well find we can't just go and make third party trade agreements, rather we might be tied into whatever deal the other nations in the customs union agree to. Further until we actual clarify what our deal with the EU is (including with regards to the custom union) it's going to make it very hard to actually have any other trade agreements as anyone we do a deal with will (quite reasonably) want to know what our position with the EU is
That would sideline Liam Fox too. He'd be superfluous. :thumbup:
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

f**king hell, Geert Wilders's PVV are now leading the polls in Holland. Suppressing the people's opinions is not only going to fudge the EU, it's going to fudge Europe. If you push people toward the rule of 30%, money, all of it goes out the window and the deal burns. Any harsh treatment of the UK is only likely to set the "fairness" trip switch off in peoples heads. Thank god we have first past the post and our leaders have to adapt to the people's will, not pretend those people don't exist and try to crowd them out until the whole things properly blows up.
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Chuckles1188
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

dr dre2 wrote:Thank god we have first past the post and our leaders have to adapt to the people's will, not pretend those people don't exist and try to crowd them out until the whole things properly blows up.
Just in case anyone was under any illusions about dre's understanding of politics, here we have one of the most spectacularly idiotic assertions I've seen in a while when talking about politics.
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unseenwork
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by unseenwork »

dr dre2 wrote:
No one ever wants to see a return to that. And whoever would even countenance that should be hounded out from our society.
You're fooling nobody :frown:
Well fûck you mate, have you family and friends who were directly effected by violence during the Troubles? Because I certainly have.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

unseenwork wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
No one ever wants to see a return to that. And whoever would even countenance that should be hounded out from our society.
You're fooling nobody :frown:
Well fûck you mate, have you family and friends who were directly effected by violence during the Troubles? Because I certainly have.
I'll leave it there, stop pulling your leg and apologise that being the case.
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unseenwork
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by unseenwork »

dr dre2 wrote:
unseenwork wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
No one ever wants to see a return to that. And whoever would even countenance that should be hounded out from our society.
You're fooling nobody :frown:
Well fûck you mate, have you family and friends who were directly effected by violence during the Troubles? Because I certainly have.
I'll leave it there, stop pulling your leg and apologise that being the case.
Alright fair enough, I'll admit my wording was far too vague and I've been overly antagonistic and angry ever since the result. I'm just unhappy, I'm a person who has always struggled to adapt to changing situations over which I have no control and when anyone tries to say that it'll be ok or this is an opportunity to be taken advantage of, I can't help but feel incredibly angry.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:Thank god we have first past the post and our leaders have to adapt to the people's will, not pretend those people don't exist and try to crowd them out until the whole things properly blows up.
Just in case anyone was under any illusions about dre's understanding of politics, here we have one of the most spectacularly idiotic assertions I've seen in a while when talking about politics.
Come on then Chucles, explain to me why I'm wrong. In most of Europe and especially France the 2 round system sees the supporters or the loser of round one group together to see off the likes of MLP. In others a majority is almost never achieved so the permanent coalitions freeze out their likes. They don't have to adapt to a large chunk of the electorate and they ignore them until it's too late. Here the alarm bell ring early and the mainstream has to listen or at least has done. What's happening in France & Holland has been brewing for many years and is far more hard edged than what's happened in the UK. FN and PVV are long established and have been a slow burn where the extreme has become more mainstream as it gets ignored. Now what's happening in Germany is more of a surprise, the rise of the AfD is a rocket but a coalition will suppress it and have it ignored again, with no pressure valve, like we have.
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Chuckles1188
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Why are you wrong?

FPTP results in 2015
Cons: 11,334,576 votes (36.9%) 330 seats
Lab: 9,347,304 (30.4%) 232 seats
SNP: 1,454,436 (4.7%) 56 seats
Lib Dem: 2,415,862 (7.9%) 8 seats
UKIP: 3,881,099 (12.7%) 1 seat

FPTP results do not reflect the will of the public as a whole and massively underrepresent fringe parties.

Your statement is the political equivalent of saying "thank God we have playoffs which mean the team who wins the league was the best over the course of the entire season". It is the polar opposite of reality
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TranceNRG
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by TranceNRG »

Chuckie you're saying UKIP should have got more seats x(
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Chuckles1188
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

TranceNRG wrote:Chuckie you're saying UKIP should have got more seats x(
No, I'm saying that if you think your electoral system should reflect the will of all people instead of disproportionately those who backed the most popular parties, UKIP should have got more seats.

But come on. Dre said:
dr dre2 wrote:Thank god we have first past the post and our leaders have to adapt to the people's will, not pretend those people don't exist and try to crowd them out until the whole things properly blows up.
What did the 2015 election result do if not pretend UKIP voters did not exist and try to crowd them out?
piquant
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by piquant »

jorwar wrote:
piquant wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Adetroy wrote:So, the Nissan deal is the canary in the mine. It is clear that the British government have made the commitment to not leave the customs union. This means Liam fox's job is redundant and talk of amazing trade deals with other countries is simple nonsense. However, whilst a country can be part of the customs union that does not include membership of the single market. Nor does the customs union cover services. It would appear that the Tory government has decided to protect manufacturing and employment above the needs of the city. They have decided to gamble that the shift out of the city of London will be minimal and that the sheer weight of London will mean that not many jobs will be lost. Then may be right. But they may be wrong and the consequences for the tax base in this country would be catastrophic.

Why would the customs union affect our ability to strike trade deals ?
It's far from clear we could leave the EU and remain in the customs union, but supposing we did we might well find we can't just go and make third party trade agreements, rather we might be tied into whatever deal the other nations in the customs union agree to. Further until we actual clarify what our deal with the EU is (including with regards to the custom union) it's going to make it very hard to actually have any other trade agreements as anyone we do a deal with will (quite reasonably) want to know what our position with the EU is
That would sideline Liam Fox too. He'd be superfluous. :thumbup:
Fox is a lame duck already. Tbh he's lucky to have had the chance to amount to that after his disgusting stint at the MoD
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TranceNRG
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by TranceNRG »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
TranceNRG wrote:Chuckie you're saying UKIP should have got more seats x(
No, I'm saying that if you think your electoral system should reflect the will of all people instead of disproportionately those who backed the most popular parties, UKIP should have got more seats.

But come on. Dre said:
dr dre2 wrote:Thank god we have first past the post and our leaders have to adapt to the people's will, not pretend those people don't exist and try to crowd them out until the whole things properly blows up.
What did the 2015 election result do if not pretend UKIP voters did not exist and try to crowd them out?
I would argue the system did reflect the will of the people - how people voted in their electorate. UKIP just came 2nd in a lot of them and only came first in one. You could argue SNP are over represented but they came first in a lot of their electorates.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:Why are you wrong?

FPTP results in 2015
Cons: 11,334,576 votes (36.9%) 330 seats
Lab: 9,347,304 (30.4%) 232 seats
SNP: 1,454,436 (4.7%) 56 seats
Lib Dem: 2,415,862 (7.9%) 8 seats
UKIP: 3,881,099 (12.7%) 1 seat

FPTP results do not reflect the will of the public as a whole and massively underrepresent fringe parties.

Your statement is the political equivalent of saying "thank God we have playoffs which mean the team who wins the league was the best over the course of the entire season". It is the polar opposite of reality
I'm suggesting that it's more susceptible to a surge, revolution was in the air before the election (Due to the number of MEPs UKIP got), this air lead to the Cons bending toward UKIP to stop the erosion. They saw the surge off due to the threat, had they not, UKIP would have taken more of a chunk out of them, UKIP's base is closer to the Tories it should have done at least as much damage to them as it did do Labour. Realistically a lot more damage than it did do Labour, but it didn't... Why? because the Tories leaned enough right due to the pressure and left UKIP under cooked. Even Labour bent on immigration and lent a bit toward UKIP, both of them shit themselves. On the continent they are used to crowding out the far right (who are worse than UKIP), they don't have to bend, the pressure increases until it pops.

Marine Le Pen will quite likely win the first round outright beating everybody else with 30% of the vote BUT she has no chance of winning the second round because everybody will crowd her out. There is no risk.... but the largest single group of voters get ignored and resentment builds until next time when her 30% has grown to 51% (she was 18% last time) and we are all f**ked. Where as here the valve was set off early.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

dr dre2 wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:Why are you wrong?

FPTP results in 2015
Cons: 11,334,576 votes (36.9%) 330 seats
Lab: 9,347,304 (30.4%) 232 seats
SNP: 1,454,436 (4.7%) 56 seats
Lib Dem: 2,415,862 (7.9%) 8 seats
UKIP: 3,881,099 (12.7%) 1 seat

FPTP results do not reflect the will of the public as a whole and massively underrepresent fringe parties.

Your statement is the political equivalent of saying "thank God we have playoffs which mean the team who wins the league was the best over the course of the entire season". It is the polar opposite of reality
I'm suggesting that it's more susceptible to a surge, revolution was in the air before the election (Due to the number of MEPs UKIP got), this air lead to the Cons bending toward UKIP to stop the erosion. They saw the surge off due to the threat, had they not, UKIP would have taken more of a chunk out of them, UKIP's base is closer to the Tories it should have done at least as much damage to them as it did do Labour. Realistically a lot more damage than it did do Labour, but it didn't... Why? because the Tories leaned enough right due to the pressure and left UKIP under cooked. Even Labour bent on immigration and lent a bit toward UKIP, both of them shit themselves. On the continent they are used to crowding out the far right (who are worse than UKIP), they don't have to bend, the pressure increases until it pops.

Marine Le Pen will quite likely win the first round outright beating everybody else with 30% of the vote BUT she has no chance of winning the second round because everybody will crowd her out. There is no risk.... but the largest single group of voters get ignored and resentment builds until next time when her 30% has grown to 51% (she was 18% last time) and we are all f**k. Where as here the valve was set off early.
Here the fear was the effect that UKIP could have if they eroded either of the main parties, that doesn't matter in France.

It won't change, you have the AfD kicking arse in Germany, a party that didn't exist a few years ago and the will of their voters will be crowded out, just ignored, not lent toward. Markel will just blame Google and insist the algo is biased. It's happening in almost all of Europe. Proper far right parties, not the soft porn we got. It's more of a worry than Brexit.
Last edited by dr dre2 on Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Chuckles1188
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Yes, they left UKIP so under-cooked that they came third in the popular vote...

You're spouting absolute drivel. FPTP crowds out fringe parties. There is nothing controversial about this statement, it is well-known as fact and demonstrated handily by TranceNRG's invocation of the "but UKIP would get more seats :uhoh: " statement. It's a substantial part of the point of that electoral system.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

piquant wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Adetroy wrote:So, the Nissan deal is the canary in the mine. It is clear that the British government have made the commitment to not leave the customs union. This means Liam fox's job is redundant and talk of amazing trade deals with other countries is simple nonsense. However, whilst a country can be part of the customs union that does not include membership of the single market. Nor does the customs union cover services. It would appear that the Tory government has decided to protect manufacturing and employment above the needs of the city. They have decided to gamble that the shift out of the city of London will be minimal and that the sheer weight of London will mean that not many jobs will be lost. Then may be right. But they may be wrong and the consequences for the tax base in this country would be catastrophic.

Why would the customs union affect our ability to strike trade deals ?
It's far from clear we could leave the EU and remain in the customs union, but supposing we did we might well find we can't just go and make third party trade agreements, rather we might be tied into whatever deal the other nations in the customs union agree to. Further until we actual clarify what our deal with the EU is (including with regards to the custom union) it's going to make it very hard to actually have any other trade agreements as anyone we do a deal with will (quite reasonably) want to know what our position with the EU is

The customs union is seprate from the single market. Turkey is a member for example.
piquant
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by piquant »

bimboman wrote:
piquant wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Adetroy wrote:So, the Nissan deal is the canary in the mine. It is clear that the British government have made the commitment to not leave the customs union. This means Liam fox's job is redundant and talk of amazing trade deals with other countries is simple nonsense. However, whilst a country can be part of the customs union that does not include membership of the single market. Nor does the customs union cover services. It would appear that the Tory government has decided to protect manufacturing and employment above the needs of the city. They have decided to gamble that the shift out of the city of London will be minimal and that the sheer weight of London will mean that not many jobs will be lost. Then may be right. But they may be wrong and the consequences for the tax base in this country would be catastrophic.

Why would the customs union affect our ability to strike trade deals ?
It's far from clear we could leave the EU and remain in the customs union, but supposing we did we might well find we can't just go and make third party trade agreements, rather we might be tied into whatever deal the other nations in the customs union agree to. Further until we actual clarify what our deal with the EU is (including with regards to the custom union) it's going to make it very hard to actually have any other trade agreements as anyone we do a deal with will (quite reasonably) want to know what our position with the EU is

The customs union is seprate from the single market. Turkey is a member for example.
You're correct on both counts. But the reasons why the customs union affects one's ability to strike trade deals isn't changed by that.
bimboman
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

piquant wrote:
bimboman wrote:
piquant wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Adetroy wrote:So, the Nissan deal is the canary in the mine. It is clear that the British government have made the commitment to not leave the customs union. This means Liam fox's job is redundant and talk of amazing trade deals with other countries is simple nonsense. However, whilst a country can be part of the customs union that does not include membership of the single market. Nor does the customs union cover services. It would appear that the Tory government has decided to protect manufacturing and employment above the needs of the city. They have decided to gamble that the shift out of the city of London will be minimal and that the sheer weight of London will mean that not many jobs will be lost. Then may be right. But they may be wrong and the consequences for the tax base in this country would be catastrophic.

Why would the customs union affect our ability to strike trade deals ?
It's far from clear we could leave the EU and remain in the customs union, but supposing we did we might well find we can't just go and make third party trade agreements, rather we might be tied into whatever deal the other nations in the customs union agree to. Further until we actual clarify what our deal with the EU is (including with regards to the custom union) it's going to make it very hard to actually have any other trade agreements as anyone we do a deal with will (quite reasonably) want to know what our position with the EU is

The customs union is seprate from the single market. Turkey is a member for example.
You're correct on both counts. But the reasons why the customs union affects one's ability to strike trade deals isn't changed by that.
Explain further ?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:Yes, they left UKIP so under-cooked that they came third in the popular vote...

You're spouting absolute drivel. FPTP crowds out fringe parties. There is nothing controversial about this statement, it is well-known as fact and demonstrated handily by TranceNRG's invocation of the "but UKIP would get more seats :uhoh: " statement. It's a substantial part of the point of that electoral system.
Yeah you are not listening and trying to pick apart a technicality. The fear was UKIP could swing the election, not win it. They naturally should have done more damage to the Tories, there is more of an overlap. They did more damage to Labour, because the Tories listened and avoided it. There is absolutely nothing controversial there that is most people's reading of the election. Yet Marine Le Pen has the biggest following (just about maybe) but can be completely discarded (for now).

I'm suggesting that their influence did not fall on deaf ears and it released a pressure valve here. It will fall on deaf ears in Europe. They would have won more seats if they had taken the same chunk out of the tories they did Labour. That was avoided. If it was ignored, all bets would have been off at the next GE. In Germany etc. the system is designed to make it near impossible to gain a majority, the AfD can be ignored unless they can get one. Not this time, but if they are ignored we may see the impossible achieved the next time.
Last edited by dr dre2 on Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

dr dre2 wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:Yes, they left UKIP so under-cooked that they came third in the popular vote...

You're spouting absolute drivel. FPTP crowds out fringe parties. There is nothing controversial about this statement, it is well-known as fact and demonstrated handily by TranceNRG's invocation of the "but UKIP would get more seats :uhoh: " statement. It's a substantial part of the point of that electoral system.
Yeah you are not listening and trying to pick apart a technicality. The fear was UKIP could swing the election, not win it. They naturally should have done more damage to the Tories, there is more of an overlap. They did more damage to Labour, because the Tories listened and avoided it. There is absolutely nothing controversial there that is most people's reading of the election. Yet Marine Le Pen has the biggest following (just about maybe) but can be completely discarded (for now).
It's quite hard to respond to such a massively counter-factual recasting of what happened. Apart from anything else, the idea that the FN are being ignored and discarded in the French system is also utter rot - look at Sarkozy, he's doing the exact same thing you are (incorrectly) claiming the Tories did and retooling himself as a far right politician to avoid them undermining his vote.

Suggesting that UK politics is more responsive to the voice of the people than a more proportional system is just fantasy stuff - none of the evidence supports your assertion.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Adetroy »

The issue concerning the customs union is that a country is making clear the goods that come from the country have essentially been produced in that country. In a legal sense this is a big deal as the heart of this idea is that the same Standards apply across the entire customs union. Any country which creates a trade agreement with a third country, not in the customs union but one which provides the third party country access to the customs union without the same standards requirement would be inconceivable. This is why being a member of the customs union means you cannot cut special trade deals with other countries. This is entirely logical and is also a founding principle of the single market, which applies to both goods and services whereas the customs union only applies to goods.
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dr dre2
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dr dre2 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:Yes, they left UKIP so under-cooked that they came third in the popular vote...

You're spouting absolute drivel. FPTP crowds out fringe parties. There is nothing controversial about this statement, it is well-known as fact and demonstrated handily by TranceNRG's invocation of the "but UKIP would get more seats :uhoh: " statement. It's a substantial part of the point of that electoral system.
Yeah you are not listening and trying to pick apart a technicality. The fear was UKIP could swing the election, not win it. They naturally should have done more damage to the Tories, there is more of an overlap. They did more damage to Labour, because the Tories listened and avoided it. There is absolutely nothing controversial there that is most people's reading of the election. Yet Marine Le Pen has the biggest following (just about maybe) but can be completely discarded (for now).
It's quite hard to respond to such a massively counter-factual recasting of what happened.

Apart from anything else, the idea that the FN are being ignored and discarded in the French system is also utter rot - look at Sarkozy, he's doing the exact same thing you are (incorrectly) claiming the Tories did and retooling himself as a far right politician to avoid them undermining his vote.
It's a qualitative reading of the facts not counter factual, it's a reading of the numbers, you just posted numbers, one that is quite accepted (I think you may be autistic). The offer of a referendum saw off UKIP for the tories, nothing controversial there. Sarkozy has bent as far as to offer a referendum on EU membership and bent on immigration? Because anything else is ignoring FN and posturing a little bit. Only that, would see off NF and make them benign.......... like the tories did under the pressure our system creates...... Have you mastered the eyebrow?
Last edited by dr dre2 on Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
bimboman
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by bimboman »

Adetroy wrote:The issue concerning the customs union is that a country is making clear the goods that come from the country have essentially been produced in that country. In a legal sense this is a big deal as the heart of this idea is that the same Standards apply across the entire customs union. Any country which creates a trade agreement with a third country, not in the customs union but one which provides the third party country access to the customs union without the same standards requirement would be inconceivable. This is why being a member of the customs union means you cannot cut special trade deals with other countries. This is entirely logical and is also a founding principle of the single market, which applies to both goods and services whereas the customs union only applies to goods.

So turkey only have trade deals replicant of the EU and none of their own ?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

The 2015 election was UKIP's most successful by a substantial margin - their previous record at a general election was under 1 million votes, last year they won close to 4 million. They also beat out the SNP and Liberal Democrats in the popular vote, but got 1/8th the number of seats the LDs did and 1/56th the number the Scots Nats did. The Tories didn't "see them off" through some canny bit of strategising, UKIP were flummoxed by an electoral system which massively advantages the two main parties in each nation. That's the clear implication of the "numbers I just posted numbers". FPTP obscures the effects of fringe parties - this is simple, undeniable fact. The reality that political parties are not run by blind automatons and are capable of looking past the number of seats that stand to be won and lost is not a strength of First Past The Post, it is wholly unrelated to it.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Adetroy »

Turkey, customs union:

Turkey, by accepting the customs union protocol, was giving the EU the power to manipulate the foreign relations of Turkey. Turkey was accepting all the treaties between EU and any non EU country (i.e. all the other countries in the world) by precondition. (16th and 55th articles[4] )
Turkey, by entering to the customs union, was accepting not to do any treaties with any non-EU country without the knowledge of EU. Otherwise, EU had the right to intervene and annul that treaty. (56th article[4])
Turkey, by entering to the customs union, was unconditionally accepting to make laws which are parallel to the newer laws made for the customs union by EU. (8th article[4])
Turkey, by entering to the customs union, was accepting to obey the all laws and decisions of European Court of Justice, where there is no single Turkish judge. (64th article[4])
Turkey, by entering to the customs union, was opening its own market to European goods. The domestic goods of Turkey were in a great difficulty to compete against these due to a difference in quality. The European goods would flow into Turkey without any customs fee.
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