OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

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Whether you can or can't actually vote IRL, In, or Out

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Out
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Rugby2023
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Rugby2023 »

jorwar wrote:"Many who voted for ‘Leave’ didn’t necessarily want an end to ‘free movement’, either for themselves, or for our European neighbours.

Mrs May is being arrogantly presumptuous in claiming that Britain voted against ‘free movement of people’ (even though we never had a vote on that).
Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.

The EU doesn't want the UK to be able to control its own borders, they want to impose free movement as part of some abstract ideal of its grand flawed project.

To suggest a vote to Leave was one taken in favour of continuing the latter as opposed to the former is delusional.
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Chuckles1188
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Some good analysis on the "why people voted to leave" question here. Further links and sources found on that page.

FWIW I think this is right in large part, but it does skate over the discomfort people in areas which have gone from very little immigration to large amounts in a very short time period feel. That's a much more nebulous concern though.
Mark Blyth writes
“Strip away all the electoral politics at the moment in the U.S., the U.K., Italy, Spain and elsewhere, and that's the underlying political economy. It's a creditor/debtor stand-off where the creditors have the whip hand. And yet, the more they crack the whip, the more the backlash against austerity, in all its forms, gains strength.”
Or in other words, it is all about austerity. That is a big claim, particularly when applied to the current US elections, but I want to examine it in the specific case of the EU referendum. In short, did austerity cause Brexit? Given how opposition to austerity has been such an important part of this blog, in some ways it is an attractive line for me to take, but I do try and base what I say on evidence rather than on what is convenient.

In the past I’ve argued that there is a massive problem with this idea, and the related idea that Brexit was a more general protest vote against elites. The obvious time to protest against austerity was the 2015 General Election. Yet rather than protest against the party that introduced austerity and promised much more of it, the British people gave the Conservatives a surprise victory.

It is nevertheless possible to argue that austerity caused Brexit in more subtle ways. I’ve also argued in the past that some of the concern over immigration is actually the result over concern about reduced public services and low wages, and a belief that the issues are linked. To the extent that reduced access to public services and to some extent low wages is actually the result of austerity, and if much of the public believe that austerity is nevertheless necessary, then what should be a protest over austerity could get displaced as a protest about immigration.

If your response to this idea is to say that concern over immigration is also a result of racism and xenophobia, I would agree, but argue that this is beside the point. When talking about the Brexit vote, we should be concerned about what you might call the swing voters, a point that Chris Dillow also makes. Remember that a large number of those voting Leave would not have been prepared to pay anything to reduce immigration: they do not sound like voters whose overriding concern is to see less foreigners on their streets. It is the Brexit voters who thought Brexit would make them better off that we should be concerned about.

So there is a possible mechanism by which austerity could have caused Brexit. That mechanism is part of a more general phenomenon: when things get tough, people become much more receptive to potential unfairness. It is what helps drive a belief that welfare goes to scroungers, a belief that some Conservative ministers seem happy to encourage.

Is there any evidence to support the idea that the mechanism I’ve outlined was important? Here is polling on the EU referendum over a long time period (source).

Image

If there is a general recession effect here (i.e. applying to every UK recession) it is masked by other factors. However after the global financial crisis and austerity we did see a big shift against the EU, although that could also be explained by the Eurozone crisis. The drop in support for leaving before the 2015 election seems to go against the austerity caused Brexit hypothesis, but that was also a time the government and much of the media was claiming that the UK economy was recovering strongly. The true state of the NHS only became apparent to most people after the election, when support for Leaving revived. So I do not think this historical evidence is conclusive either way.

There is some econometric evidence for a link between the extent of public service cutbacks and the proportion of people voting Leave (for a summary, see this VoxEU article). But as the article itself notes, the measure of austerity used could simply be acting as a proxy for more long term deprivation, which is a widely acknowledged influence on Brexit.

In my view more compelling evidence for an impact of austerity on the Leave vote comes from the little polling evidence we have on why people think high levels of EU immigration is a problem. Here is the result of a poll on this that I have reproduced before, which speaks for itself.

Image

As I have argued here, the current squeeze on the NHS is unprecedented. The share of NHS spending in GDP has a natural tendency to rise over time, for reasons that are well understood. Yet not only did few in the media contest the ‘common sense’ idea that austerity was necessary, but also voters hear time and again that NHS spending is being protected. As they see services deteriorate, it is not surprising that they conclude that there is just too much demand. I doubt very much that it is coincidence that the Leave campaign’s bus had the £350 million a week going to the NHS.

So there is evidence that links austerity to the Brexit vote, particularly if we remember we are not talking about a core vote that would have voted Leave anyway (because of xenophobia, for example), but the swing voters who at other times and circumstances might have voted the other way. But what about arguments that the Leave vote reflected a reaction to deprivation caused by globalisation, or that it was the result of the malign influence of the tabloid press? (I’ve made both arguments in the past.)

There is some complementarity here. As I noted at the beginning, the media is important in transforming concern about austerity from the politicians that impose it into concern about immigration. More importantly, there is no need to find the cause of Brexit. It seems quite possible to believe that the vote would have gone the other way if we had not had austerity, or if we had a tabloid press that was not just a cheerleader for Leave and a broadcast media indifferent to expertise, or if the impact of globalisation had been offset in various ways. With the vote so close, it is legitimate to argue that all three on their own might have been responsible for Brexit, or equivalently that the Brexit result was a consequence of a perfect storm of bad policies and institutions.
Last edited by Chuckles1188 on Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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paddyor
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by paddyor »

Rugby2023 wrote:
jorwar wrote:"Many who voted for ‘Leave’ didn’t necessarily want an end to ‘free movement’, either for themselves, or for our European neighbours.

Mrs May is being arrogantly presumptuous in claiming that Britain voted against ‘free movement of people’ (even though we never had a vote on that).
Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.

The EU doesn't want the UK to be able to control its own borders, they want to impose free movement as part of some abstract ideal of its grand flawed project.

To suggest a vote to Leave was one taken in favour of continuing the latter as opposed to the former is delusional.
It's funny how perspectives differ.
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nardol
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by nardol »

A referendum where people are voting in or out on an issue that has 1000+ sub questions

How is anyone supposed to translate that into a 'this is what the people wanted' statement?

Answer you cant - but you can politik the hell out of it and try
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sewa
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by sewa »

Rugby2023 wrote:
jorwar wrote:"Many who voted for ‘Leave’ didn’t necessarily want an end to ‘free movement’, either for themselves, or for our European neighbours.

Mrs May is being arrogantly presumptuous in claiming that Britain voted against ‘free movement of people’ (even though we never had a vote on that).
Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.

The EU doesn't want the UK to be able to control its own borders, they want to impose free movement as part of some abstract ideal of its grand flawed project.

To suggest a vote to Leave was one taken in favour of continuing the latter as opposed to the former is delusional.
You can already control a lot of your immigration as the majority of it does not come from Europe. Why you decided not to bother if you are so worried about immigration is beyond me, is it perhaps because you actually need all those doctors, carers and nurses?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by dantedelew »

Rugby2023 wrote:Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.
The vote was to leave the european union.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Rugby2023 »

dantedelew wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.
The vote was to leave the european union.
Are you arguing that a vote to leave the European Union isn't a vote to restore sovereignty to the United Kingdom?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Rugby2023 wrote:
dantedelew wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.
The vote was to leave the european union.
Are you arguing that a vote to leave the European Union isn't a vote to restore sovereignty to the United Kingdom?
It isn't necessarily the case that it is. We could easily find ourselves in a situation where we have less sovereignty than we would have if we'd stayed in.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by haunch »

sewa wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
jorwar wrote:"Many who voted for ‘Leave’ didn’t necessarily want an end to ‘free movement’, either for themselves, or for our European neighbours.

Mrs May is being arrogantly presumptuous in claiming that Britain voted against ‘free movement of people’ (even though we never had a vote on that).
Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.

The EU doesn't want the UK to be able to control its own borders, they want to impose free movement as part of some abstract ideal of its grand flawed project.

To suggest a vote to Leave was one taken in favour of continuing the latter as opposed to the former is delusional.
You can already control a lot of your immigration as the majority of it does not come from Europe. Why you decided not to bother if you are so worried about immigration is beyond me, is it perhaps because you actually need all those doctors, carers and nurses?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by The Sun God »

Hearing reports from Irish media that PM May could possibly activate article 50 in December........you guys hearing that ?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by danny_fitz »

The Sun God wrote:Hearing reports from Irish media that PM May could possibly activate article 50 in December........you guys hearing that ?
Great, my ski trip is going to be even more expensive :x
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by croyals »

The Sun God wrote:Hearing reports from Irish media that PM May could possibly activate article 50 in December........you guys hearing that ?
First I've heard of it, but I am somewhat out of the loop at Number 10.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by The Sun God »

Apparently it's coming from our PM.......... http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics ... -1.2851739
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by JJR »

Heard an Irish finance analyst (yes they do exist) on R5L this morning shitting bricks at the implications for the Irish economy when Brexit happens. She said, and I quote, 'every conceivable metric has bad consequences for the Irish economy'.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by The Sun God »

JJR wrote:Heard an Irish finance analyst (yes they do exist) on R5L this morning shitting bricks at the implications for the Irish economy when Brexit happens. She said, and I quote, 'every conceivable metric has bad consequences for the Irish economy'.
Wow...such rare insight. Maybe you and he should do lunch.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by NickC »

The Sun God wrote:Hearing reports from Irish media that PM May could possibly activate article 50 in December........you guys hearing that ?
The London High Court will deliver its verdict on the EU exit case tomorrow -- could be tied into that.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by zzzz »

Rocketz wrote:A $17 billion bank has sold all of its British assets because of Brexit https://t.co/V7sS5SDPJH https://t.co/T3qtqib7mz

Weird that. Because I heard that investors bought $17bn of UK assets.

I think you should stay away from the finance stuff.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by JM2K6 »

zzzz wrote:
Rocketz wrote:A $17 billion bank has sold all of its British assets because of Brexit https://t.co/V7sS5SDPJH https://t.co/T3qtqib7mz

Weird that. Because I heard that investors bought $17bn of UK assets.

I think you should stay away from the finance stuff.
or this thread
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Nobleman »

Rugby2023 wrote:
dantedelew wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.
The vote was to leave the european union.
Are you arguing that a vote to leave the European Union isn't a vote to restore sovereignty to the United Kingdom?
Sovereignty is a term bandied around by the Brexiteers when they actually mean nationalism. The notion that domestic policy making can somehow be insulated from the global economy is pure fantasy.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by JJR »

Nobleman wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
dantedelew wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.
The vote was to leave the european union.
Are you arguing that a vote to leave the European Union isn't a vote to restore sovereignty to the United Kingdom?
Sovereignty is a term bandied around by the Brexiteers when they actually mean nationalism. The notion that domestic policy making can somehow be insulated from the global economy is pure fantasy.

Have you ever applied for a green card?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by camroc1 »

Nobleman wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
dantedelew wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.
The vote was to leave the european union.
Are you arguing that a vote to leave the European Union isn't a vote to restore sovereignty to the United Kingdom?
Sovereignty is a term bandied around by the Brexiteers when they actually mean nationalism. The notion that domestic policy making can somehow be insulated from the global economy is pure fantasy.
Indeed. Ireland, amongst other countries, can confirm that it doesn't work.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Zico »

The jingoists in the UK will be in a hurry to trigger A50 and get out at any cost before the consequences start biting hard and people start changing their mind. It was a narrow majority in favour of leaving the EU so it wouldn't take much to swing opinion against going through with it. Tick tock.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by JJR »

Zico wrote:The jingoists in the UK will be in a hurry to trigger A50 and get out at any cost before the consequences start biting hard and people start changing their mind. It was a narrow majority in favour of leaving the EU so it wouldn't take much to swing opinion against going through with it. Tick tock.


Remainers talk about consequences like it's a decision based on the next 18 months. Over the next decade and beyond the EU will collapse in on itself. The disasters are stacking up waiting to land in Brussels and there is no leadership that has the wherewithal or the decision making mechanisms to equip it to deal with them.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by I like haggis »

JJR wrote:
Zico wrote:The jingoists in the UK will be in a hurry to trigger A50 and get out at any cost before the consequences start biting hard and people start changing their mind. It was a narrow majority in favour of leaving the EU so it wouldn't take much to swing opinion against going through with it. Tick tock.


Remainers talk about consequences like it's a decision based on the next 18 months. Over the next decade and beyond the EU will collapse in on itself. The disasters are stacking up waiting to land in Brussels and there is no leadership that has the wherewithal or the decision making mechanisms to equip it to deal with them.
Very fair point. But that's the issue with politics, the majority of people don't have the foresight to really care about what happens in 10/20 years because it's almost impossible to predict and all the current government want to achieve is to impress short term so they win elections.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by easyray »

paddyor wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
jorwar wrote:"Many who voted for ‘Leave’ didn’t necessarily want an end to ‘free movement’, either for themselves, or for our European neighbours.

Mrs May is being arrogantly presumptuous in claiming that Britain voted against ‘free movement of people’ (even though we never had a vote on that).
Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.

The EU doesn't want the UK to be able to control its own borders, they want to impose free movement as part of some abstract ideal of its grand flawed project.

To suggest a vote to Leave was one taken in favour of continuing the latter as opposed to the former is delusional.
It's funny how perspectives differ.
Indeed. But the racist and xenophobic think it was all about immigration, and nothing will convince them otherwise. They would rather see the UK broke, poor and isolated, than see eastern Europeans in our streets. The fact that Britain has the toughest border controls of any country in the EU seems to be lost on many people, along with the fact that the majority of people entering the UK were not even from the EU.

we'll soon get better control of our borders when we leave, as our borders will move back from France into the UK, especially at Dover. The ques to get in and out of the UK will be something to behold as we control our own borders even further and the M2 replaces the M25 as Britain's biggest car park.

Unless of course we stay in the single market and accept 'free movement of people' (or workers as the fudge will call it).
Lorthern Nights

Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Lorthern Nights »

I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.
Rugby2023
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Rugby2023 »

Nobleman wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
dantedelew wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.
The vote was to leave the european union.
Are you arguing that a vote to leave the European Union isn't a vote to restore sovereignty to the United Kingdom?
Sovereignty is a term bandied around by the Brexiteers when they actually mean nationalism. The notion that domestic policy making can somehow be insulated from the global economy is pure fantasy.
No, it's the principle that decisions about the UK are taken within the UK and that the nation should be a self-governing entity not subject to a supranational writing laws and regulations which are not in our national interest.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by JJR »

Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.

What do you think will happen to the EU when the Italians and Spanish can't pay their debts and Greece gets the cap out again, then Portugal and Ireland?
Lorthern Nights

Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Lorthern Nights »

JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.

What do you think will happen to the EU when the Italians and Spanish can't pay their debts and Greece gets the cap out again, then Portugal and Ireland?
Not much, the eurozone will be in trouble but that isnt the EU.
Lorthern Nights

Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Rugby2023 wrote:
Nobleman wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
dantedelew wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:Britain voted to restore sovereignty, that means amongst many other things, being able to decide who comes into the country. That is to say, a restoration of the ability to control (not block) immigration into the UK.
The vote was to leave the european union.
Are you arguing that a vote to leave the European Union isn't a vote to restore sovereignty to the United Kingdom?
Sovereignty is a term bandied around by the Brexiteers when they actually mean nationalism. The notion that domestic policy making can somehow be insulated from the global economy is pure fantasy.
No, it's the principle that decisions about the UK are taken within the UK and that the nation should be a self-governing entity not subject to a supranational writing laws and regulations which are not in our national interest.
Which ones?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by JJR »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.

What do you think will happen to the EU when the Italians and Spanish can't pay their debts and Greece gets the cap out again, then Portugal and Ireland?
Not much, the eurozone will be in trouble but that isnt the EU.


So any country that uses the Euro in the EU is up shit creak bar the Germans. That's ok then.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by sewa »

JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.

What do you think will happen to the EU when the Italians and Spanish can't pay their debts and Greece gets the cap out again, then Portugal and Ireland?
Not much, the eurozone will be in trouble but that isnt the EU.


So any country that uses the Euro in the EU is up shit creak bar the Germans. That's ok then.
Don't worry. You will get your portion of the bill too
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by JJR »

sewa wrote:
JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.

What do you think will happen to the EU when the Italians and Spanish can't pay their debts and Greece gets the cap out again, then Portugal and Ireland?
Not much, the eurozone will be in trouble but that isnt the EU.


So any country that uses the Euro in the EU is up shit creak bar the Germans. That's ok then.
Don't worry. You will get your portion of the bill too


Good luck with that.
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by I like haggis »

JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.

What do you think will happen to the EU when the Italians and Spanish can't pay their debts and Greece gets the cap out again, then Portugal and Ireland?
They'll continue being bailed out for all of time. Pretty much every country on the planet has debts it'll never be able to pay off - the UK included, we'll never pay off the debts we've accrued but for some reason those who point out the eurozone debts never worry about ours ... which is strange.
Lorthern Nights

Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Lorthern Nights »

JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.

What do you think will happen to the EU when the Italians and Spanish can't pay their debts and Greece gets the cap out again, then Portugal and Ireland?
Not much, the eurozone will be in trouble but that isnt the EU.


So any country that uses the Euro in the EU is up shit creak bar the Germans. That's ok then.
How do you know it's not the Germans up shit creek as well?

You asked what would happen with the EU not the Eurozone countries, do you struggle to differentiate between the two?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by haunch »

I like haggis wrote:
JJR wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.

What do you think will happen to the EU when the Italians and Spanish can't pay their debts and Greece gets the cap out again, then Portugal and Ireland?
They'll continue being bailed out for all of time. Pretty much every country on the planet has debts it'll never be able to pay off - the UK included, we'll never pay off the debts we've accrued but for some reason those who point out the eurozone debts never worry about ours ... which is strange.
Having debt you can service is obviously different to needing to be bailed out.
haunch
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by haunch »

Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.
How high inflation are you expecting? Are you expecting a long term rise?
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by tc27 »

Friend of a friend in the Tory party is telling me that MPs are getting sounded out about a deal that involves paying the EU 'high single digit billions' a year for single market particpation.
I like haggis
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Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by I like haggis »

tc27 wrote:Friend of a friend in the Tory party is telling me that MPs are getting sounded out about a deal that involves paying the EU 'high single digit billions' a year for single market particpation.
I think this is their tactic for negotiations. The EU is losing the second largest (although I think France has overtaken us after the pound's value slumped) economy and that's bad news for them. Try and tempt them with a lot of money to maintain tariff free access.

However two problems: 1) Poland and Romania are probably more likely to want their people allowed into the UK so would veto if the vote is separate from A50 voting and 2) perhaps more importantly, this will incense most of the Brexiteers who believed they were getting so much money (I believe 350 million a week was mentioned somewhere) back from the EU budget.
Lorthern Nights

Re: OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

Post by Lorthern Nights »

haunch wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:I can see another vote happening as the economy is going to tank next year, we will see if Brexit means Brexit when the reality of inflation slams into the nuggets who voted to leave as they will be the least able to to handle it.
How high inflation are you expecting? Are you expecting a long term rise?
Couple of groups out today saying inflation over 4% with falling living standards, which will be the basket that they are using to measure CPI etc but for me i can see food prices being a good deal higher than that and that's where the lower income families will get hit hard.

Driven by imports obviously being considerably more expensive with the pound heavily down against all major currencies and even domestic producers will be exporting more to take advantage of higher prices abroad.
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