OFFICIAL EU/UK referendum thread

SamShark · Post by **SamShark** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:30 pm

Slider wrote:
What does interest me is how well the REMAIN group persuade people that the EU summit changes are significant and meaningful. Their problem is that it's an outright lie. Cameron and Osborne first spoke about the referendum being in their manifesto on the basis of bringing about a fundamental change to EU treaties. They (or the media) spoke about an EU-wide Big Bang. I knew they were never going to get anything like that. They avoided specifics, but people were talking about restricting EU immigration. That's a non-starter - if you meddle with free movement then the whole idea of the EU will fall. I doubt any one country would have backed him. He has managed to turn the question of immigration to one of benefit tourism, but that's absurd because the sums involved are negligible.

I'm not sure anyone would see the "deal" as hugely significant. Some will see it as "something" others as "nothing".

As with the interest in which Minister is going which way it's all politics, posturing, stage management.

I dont know how influential it is - basically we'll be hearing from politicians (biased), the media (mostly biased) and business (biased but in a more transparent way as their business interest is self interest)

haunch · Post by **haunch** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:31 pm

Any pro eu types going to leave in protest if we get out?

Carrots and Peas · Post by **Carrots and Peas** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:35 pm

As a general rule of thumb I think the exact opposite to the Daily Mail and the Sun tell me to think so I'll be voting to stay in.

The FT and the Economist are full of clever chaps and they want to stay, so I'll follow them. I can't be doing with uncertainty around my job (not that I work in anything related to Europe tbf) or my investments (although they are't worth much nowadays anyway).

David's renegotiation was always destined to be a show. He couldn't fundamentally alter the European Constitution with one quick pop across the channel so I don't care what deal he got.

Doc Rob · Post by **Doc Rob** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:36 pm

Silver wrote:
Doc Rob wrote:
SamShark wrote:
cachao wrote:Doesn't Corbyn also have greater support amongst the young?
It's an interesting issue.

In the Scottish independence referendum the nationalists accused the older generation of not being brave and hanging on to the status quo.

In this case it's the older generation who want "out" of something more than the young.
Quite. I'm already cringing waiting for all the people who were dead against Scottish independence from the UK arguing in favour of UK 'independence' from Brussels, whilst shamelessly using all of the same arguments.
Surely its the other way. Those for Scottish independence are likely against UK sovereignty. For some strange reason.

Not strange in the slightest. Despite what the Tories/UKIP/Daily Mail would have you believe, the EU remains a much looser arrangement than the UK. Nothing remotely inconsistent in being happy to be a part of that, but not happy with Scotland's current situation within the UK.

What is inconsistent is saying that you object to the UK being subject to laws passed in Brussels, whilst being perfectly OK with Scotland being subject to laws passed in London. Particularly as the EU, as mentioned above, is a far looser Union than the UK.

Slider · Post by **Slider** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:37 pm

Silver wrote:
Slider wrote:
Surely its the other way. Those for Scottish independence are likely against UK sovereignty. For some strange reason.
It's a pretty solid correlation both ways. Those who supported independence are largely pro-Europe, those who support the current Union of the UK are anti-Europe. There is another group of mostly English nationalists who would be happiest to see the lot of them bugger off, but it's a minority.
Pro EU?

Many who STRONGLY support the current Union of the UK are pro-EU. This kind of makes sense

Being pro Scottish independence and pro UK in the EU doesn't.

I've had a think about what I said, and it's full of holes, but no point in deleting it. Cameron for example is anti-independence and pro-EU. Galloway is anti-independence and anti-EU. (Mind you he's serial liar). (Edit - I'm not saying Cameron isn't)

But you're wrong about your second point. Most of Scotland is pro-EU, but about 50% are also pro-independence. They like Europe, they like the EU which acts as a brake on Tory policies from Westminster. First prize for those people would be Scotland in the EU, second prize is UK in the EU.

The Man Without Fear · Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:42 pm

Let months of lies, propaganda, speculation and tedious TV and radio interviews commence!

Dobbin · Post by **Dobbin** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:43 pm

23rd of june....spring will never have felt so long

Sefton · Post by **Sefton** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:43 pm

It's easy for me, WWSD.

Doc Rob · Post by **Doc Rob** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:44 pm

Slider wrote:
Silver wrote:
Slider wrote:
Surely its the other way. Those for Scottish independence are likely against UK sovereignty. For some strange reason.
It's a pretty solid correlation both ways. Those who supported independence are largely pro-Europe, those who support the current Union of the UK are anti-Europe. There is another group of mostly English nationalists who would be happiest to see the lot of them bugger off, but it's a minority.
Pro EU?

Many who STRONGLY support the current Union of the UK are pro-EU. This kind of makes sense

Being pro Scottish independence and pro UK in the EU doesn't.
I've had a think about what I said, and it's full of holes, but no point in deleting it. Cameron for example is anti-independence and pro-EU. Galloway is anti-independence and anti-EU. (Mind you he's serial liar). (Edit - I'm not saying Cameron isn't)

But you're wrong about your second point. Most of Scotland is pro-EU, but about 50% are also pro-independence. They like Europe, they like the EU which acts as a brake on Tory policies from Westminster. First prize for those people would be Scotland in the EU, second prize is UK in the EU.

That's about right. A Tory government entirely unfettered by more moderate EU laws is too horrible to contemplate.

iarmhiman · Post by **iarmhiman** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:44 pm

Looking forward to this. Whether the UK stay in or out, it's going to be great television. Should be good trolling on here as well either way. Expect Cammy, Bill, Terryfinch and Sewa to all shine during this campaign on PR.

Saint · Post by **Saint** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:45 pm

Sefton wrote:It's easy for me, WWSD.

You can just follow your avatar

Carrots and Peas · Post by **Carrots and Peas** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:46 pm

Slider wrote:
Silver wrote:
Slider wrote:
Surely its the other way. Those for Scottish independence are likely against UK sovereignty. For some strange reason.
It's a pretty solid correlation both ways. Those who supported independence are largely pro-Europe, those who support the current Union of the UK are anti-Europe. There is another group of mostly English nationalists who would be happiest to see the lot of them bugger off, but it's a minority.
Pro EU?

Many who STRONGLY support the current Union of the UK are pro-EU. This kind of makes sense

Being pro Scottish independence and pro UK in the EU doesn't.
I've had a think about what I said, and it's full of holes, but no point in deleting it. Cameron for example is anti-independence and pro-EU. Galloway is anti-independence and anti-EU. (Mind you he's serial liar). (Edit - I'm not saying Cameron isn't)

But you're wrong about your second point. Most of Scotland is pro-EU, but about 50% are also pro-independence. They like Europe, they like the EU which acts as a brake on Tory policies from Westminster. First prize for those people would be Scotland in the EU, second prize is UK in the EU.

45% were in favour in a nationwide poll done in September 2014.

Scotland wanted to stay in the EU if they got independence so it makes sense they want to stay in the EU being part of the UK.

I hope the UK stays tbf, I live in London these days but can't be doing with another Scottish referendum.

Newby1 · Post by **Newby1** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:47 pm

I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.

Slider · Post by **Slider** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:47 pm

Sefton wrote:It's easy for me, WWSD.

Who is S?

paddyor · Post by **paddyor** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:47 pm

Eurozone - Britain can keep the pound while being in Europe, and its business trade with the bloc, without fear of discrimination. Any British money spent on bailing out eurozone nations will be reimbursed.

That's fair enough and as it should be. The last sentence is completely tacked on though.

Protection for the City of London - Safeguards for Britain's large financial services industry to prevent eurozone regulations being imposed on it

It will be interesting how this is applied. Assuming the € survives, surely the EZ countries have the right to dictate how it's used and to some extent it's movement. E.g capital controls. Tbh I don't think there was ever much of a threat to the city of London that Special Britain couldn't face down with the support of other countries (as long as it was in the EU), but perception is all.

'Red card' for national parliaments - It will be easier for governments to band together to block unwanted legislation. If 55% of national EU parliaments object to a piece of EU legislation it may be rethought.

The first seems to be a reduction for qualified majority voting we'll have to see how this works out. Presumably vetos still aply on matters like tax anyway.

Competitiveness - The settlement calls on all EU institutions and member states to "make all efforts to fully implement and strengthen the internal market" and to take "concrete steps towards better regulation", including by cutting red tape.

The second will be a little redundant if(as I hope) TTIP comes through as it will cut away a lot of regulation anyway. If it falls through then it's meaningless.

Slider · Post by **Slider** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:49 pm

Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.

Have you seen the Commonwealth lately?

(Or have I been wooshed?)

cachao · Post by **cachao** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:50 pm

haunch wrote:Any pro eu types going to leave in protest if we get out?

Does that not depend on the price of cheese?

haunch · Post by **haunch** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:50 pm

Doc Rob wrote:
Slider wrote:
Silver wrote:
Slider wrote:
Surely its the other way. Those for Scottish independence are likely against UK sovereignty. For some strange reason.
It's a pretty solid correlation both ways. Those who supported independence are largely pro-Europe, those who support the current Union of the UK are anti-Europe. There is another group of mostly English nationalists who would be happiest to see the lot of them bugger off, but it's a minority.
Pro EU?

Many who STRONGLY support the current Union of the UK are pro-EU. This kind of makes sense

Being pro Scottish independence and pro UK in the EU doesn't.
I've had a think about what I said, and it's full of holes, but no point in deleting it. Cameron for example is anti-independence and pro-EU. Galloway is anti-independence and anti-EU. (Mind you he's serial liar). (Edit - I'm not saying Cameron isn't)

But you're wrong about your second point. Most of Scotland is pro-EU, but about 50% are also pro-independence. They like Europe, they like the EU which acts as a brake on Tory policies from Westminster. First prize for those people would be Scotland in the EU, second prize is UK in the EU.
That's about right. A Tory government entirely unfettered by more moderate EU laws is too horrible to contemplate.

Interesting, how has the eu fettered the tories? Should be more ammo for the leave campaign.

The Man Without Fear · Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:54 pm

Environmental regulations, human rights and workers rights are three examples that spring to mind instantly when one thinks, "What will be screwed if we leave the EU?"

AND-y · Post by **AND-y** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:55 pm

Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.

British today are you?

haunch · Post by **haunch** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:59 pm

The Man Without Fear wrote:Environmental regulations, human rights and workers rights are three examples that spring to mind instantly when one thinks, "What will be screwed if we leave the EU?"

So it's a way of getting stuff into law that you don't think the public will vote for? Seems like we could do all this outside the eu.

cachao · Post by **cachao** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:59 pm

The Man Without Fear wrote:Environmental regulations, human rights and workers rights are three examples that spring to mind instantly when one thinks, "What will be screwed if we leave the EU?"

All good reasons for capitalists to want an exit. Do they?

Carrots and Peas · Post by **Carrots and Peas** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:59 pm

The Man Without Fear wrote:Environmental regulations, human rights and workers rights are three examples that spring to mind instantly when one thinks, "What will be screwed if we leave the EU?"

Human rights wouldn't change. The EU isn't a member of the European Convention of Human Rights because the EU doesn't allow a "fair trial" for antitrust offences so I don't think it would have a huge impact. The British Bill of Rights is going to be exactly the same as the ECHR and Gove knows it but having "British" over "European" in the title will pull the wool over people's eyes.

Can't disagree on workers rights and environment though.

unseenwork · Post by **unseenwork** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:01 pm

I'm heading to Dublin if this all goes tits up.

Though I'll still be an EU citizen of course.

Newby1 · Post by **Newby1** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:04 pm

Slider wrote:
Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.
Have you seen the Commonwealth lately?

(Or have I been wooshed?)

Places like Canada, Australia and NZ aren't f**ked. When you add in one of the fastest growing large economies in the world (god know how based on what I've read regarding their tax laws) and you have a good basis for trade.

The USA would be a handy partner too when it comes to trade.

Newby1 · Post by **Newby1** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:05 pm

AND-y wrote:
Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.
British today are you?

I live in Britain and have recently obtained dual nationality. I think its fair for me to voice an opinion regarding the future of the country where I live, work, and pay taxes in.

AND-y · Post by **AND-y** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:06 pm

Newby1 wrote:
AND-y wrote:
Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.
British today are you?
I live in Britain and have recently obtained dual nationality. I think its fair for me to voice an opinion regarding the future of the country where I live, work, and pay taxes in.

That depends. How brown are you?

iarmhiman · Post by **iarmhiman** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:12 pm

The more I watch BBC News 24 and its coverage of the referendum this morning, the more I believe it's going to be an out vote win. I don't believe Cameron's spin is going to work.

Carrots and Peas · Post by **Carrots and Peas** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:13 pm

Newby1 wrote:
Slider wrote:
Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.
Have you seen the Commonwealth lately?

(Or have I been wooshed?)
Places like Canada, Australia and NZ aren't f**k. When you add in one of the fastest growing large economies in the world (god know how based on what I've read regarding their tax laws) and you have a good basis for trade.

The USA would be a handy partner too when it comes to trade.

A handy partner indeed. So, did you know the EU and USA are forming the TTIP which is the biggest ever trade deal in the history of the World? And they already trade with us and they want us to stay in the EU so you've completely undone your argument there. Better luck next time.

Sefton · Post by **Sefton** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:23 pm

Slider wrote:
Sefton wrote:It's easy for me, WWSD.
Who is S?

Silver, our GMO, health, climate, science, finance and EU guru.

paddyor · Post by **paddyor** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:31 pm

Carrots and Peas wrote:
Newby1 wrote:
Slider wrote:
Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.
Have you seen the Commonwealth lately?

(Or have I been wooshed?)
Places like Canada, Australia and NZ aren't f**k. When you add in one of the fastest growing large economies in the world (god know how based on what I've read regarding their tax laws) and you have a good basis for trade.

The USA would be a handy partner too when it comes to trade.
A handy partner indeed. So, did you know the EU and USA are forming the TTIP which is the biggest ever trade deal in the history of the World? And they already trade with us and they want us to stay in the EU so you've completely undone your argument there. Better luck next time.

The anglophone trade bloc is fantasy stuff. The only thing you and those countries had in common with each other back in the day was you controlled them. It's very much a case of grass is always greener. Why do people think a trade bloc with such different outlooks in and trade interests like that wouldn't be just as unwieldy as the EU.

ID2 · Post by **ID2** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:33 pm

SamShark wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:I think it will be an 'out', the conditions Dave has won are clearly shite and full of conditions. He's come away empty handed.
So you think undecided people will see the deal as shit, and that will convince them to vote out?

Some say almost 50% of people are open to be convinced either way.

What are the main reasons people want to leave? What did Cameron need to 'win' to get people to stay in?

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:34 pm

iarmhiman wrote:The more I watch BBC News 24 and its coverage of the referendum this morning, the more I believe it's going to be an out vote win. I don't believe Cameron's spin is going to work.

They will just ramp up the scare stories if this looks likely. Or threats

Newby1 · Post by **Newby1** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:36 pm

Carrots and Peas wrote:
Newby1 wrote:
Slider wrote:
Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.
Have you seen the Commonwealth lately?

(Or have I been wooshed?)
Places like Canada, Australia and NZ aren't f**k. When you add in one of the fastest growing large economies in the world (god know how based on what I've read regarding their tax laws) and you have a good basis for trade.

The USA would be a handy partner too when it comes to trade.
A handy partner indeed. So, did you know the EU and USA are forming the TTIP which is the biggest ever trade deal in the history of the World? And they already trade with us and they want us to stay in the EU so you've completely undone your argument there. Better luck next time.

France and other European states who are vehemently anti progress will delay and water that deal down till its worthless. They have form for f**king everyone over just so they can fudge themselves over, and they've already started to do it here.

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:37 pm

ID2 wrote:
SamShark wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:I think it will be an 'out', the conditions Dave has won are clearly shite and full of conditions. He's come away empty handed.
So you think undecided people will see the deal as shit, and that will convince them to vote out?

Some say almost 50% of people are open to be convinced either way.
What are the main reasons people want to leave? What did Cameron need to 'win' to get people to stay in?

To regain our independence / sovereignty.

If we loss it to an undemocratic EU it will be almost impossible to get it back. even joining the Euro is as good as too late. As Greece recently found out

ID2 · Post by **ID2** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:37 pm

Put up a poll Sam

Newby1 · Post by **Newby1** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:38 pm

paddyor wrote:
Carrots and Peas wrote:
Newby1 wrote:
Slider wrote:
Newby1 wrote:I'm out. I don't want to be part of a political organisation with such a clear deficit of democracy. I'd much rather Britain leave and set up a comprehensive trade union (non political!) with the commonwealth who actually share the same ideals of democracy and aspiration.
Have you seen the Commonwealth lately?

(Or have I been wooshed?)
Places like Canada, Australia and NZ aren't f**k. When you add in one of the fastest growing large economies in the world (god know how based on what I've read regarding their tax laws) and you have a good basis for trade.

The USA would be a handy partner too when it comes to trade.
A handy partner indeed. So, did you know the EU and USA are forming the TTIP which is the biggest ever trade deal in the history of the World? And they already trade with us and they want us to stay in the EU so you've completely undone your argument there. Better luck next time.
The anglophone trade bloc is fantasy stuff. The only thing you and those countries had in common with each other back in the day was you controlled them. It's very much a case of grass is always greener. Why do people think a trade bloc with such different outlooks in and trade interests like that wouldn't be just as unwieldy as the EU.

Because the EU ceased to be a trade bloc aeons ago. Is a political union with the explicit aim of removing national autonomy and democracy. Of course its unwieldy because everyone wants to make sure that the eventual super state looks like their current state when their current states are massively out of sync.

Silver · Post by **Silver** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:42 pm

The Man Without Fear wrote:Environmental regulations, human rights and workers rights are three examples that spring to mind instantly when one thinks, "What will be screwed if we leave the EU?"

How about we will be screwed if we stay in. The PM has much reduced power now. He or she will have almost no real power in 10 yrs if we vote to stay in

Anonymous 1 · Post by **Anonymous 1** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:46 pm

To much fog to know for sure what would be best financially. However I do not want to be a European . I want to be British and will vote to leave

unseenwork · Post by **unseenwork** » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:47 pm

Silver wrote:
The Man Without Fear wrote:Environmental regulations, human rights and workers rights are three examples that spring to mind instantly when one thinks, "What will be screwed if we leave the EU?"

How about we will be screwed if we stay in. The PM has much reduced power now. He or she will have almost no real power in 10 yrs if we vote to stay in

Sounds alright to me!

Whether you can or can't actually vote IRL, In, or Out