Planet Rugby Forum

TheFrog wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:32 pm Peaceful pro-Trump demonstration in Texas

https://twitter.com/i/status/1322566702048153600

Looks like perfectly ordinary lane discipline on the I-10.

Anyone seen the email exchange between Greenwald and Betsy Reed where she says a) there is no evidence that the HB information is false and b) that it is legitimate for journalists to NOT cover that story because Trump is worse.

Trump now +7 in Iowa. Not a good sign for Biden in the Midwest.

Cabbage wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:20 am Trump now +7 in Iowa. Not a good sign for Biden in the Midwest.

One poll, with a margin of error of +/- 4% Other polls show the Orange Buffoon ahead by 1-2%

Bought and paid for by the China tariffs.

Santa wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:20 am Anyone seen the email exchange between Greenwald and Betsy Reed where she says a) there is no evidence that the HB information is false and b) that it is legitimate for journalists to NOT cover that story because Trump is worse.

Let it go. It's a fake story about alleged legal business dealings by the Biden family.

CrazyIslander wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:42 am

Santa wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:20 am Anyone seen the email exchange between Greenwald and Betsy Reed where she says a) there is no evidence that the HB information is false and b) that it is legitimate for journalists to NOT cover that story because Trump is worse.

Let it go. It's a fake story about alleged legal business dealings by the Biden family.

Better still, go and watch some actual rugby, and post something useful for a change.

I'm not sure what the problem is with mail in votes, or special votes as they are called in NZ. There's no possibility of corruption here so why so in the USA? Are they naturally more corrupt?

Muttonbirds wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:57 am I'm not sure what the problem is with mail in votes, or special votes as they are called in NZ. There's no possibility of corruption here so why so in the USA? Are they naturally more corrupt?

There’s none in the US either. But Dems are more likely to vote by mail, so.....
Probably because they work on Tuesdays.

towny wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:11 am

Muttonbirds wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:57 am I'm not sure what the problem is with mail in votes, or special votes as they are called in NZ. There's no possibility of corruption here so why so in the USA? Are they naturally more corrupt?

There’s none in the US either. But Dems are more likely to vote by mail, so.....
Probably because they work on Tuesdays.

Tuesday, wtf? Is that another remnant from pre-industrial times?

Ah, yes:

Why Tuesday — and in November?

Convenience, believe it or not. In order to understand the day chosen, you need to understand 19th century America. Most Americans were farmers, devoutly Christian and needed time to travel, because roads weren't paved, and polling locations weren't widespread like today.

https://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/50020850 ... n-tuesdays

Fucking.

Idiots.

wamberal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:47 am

Cabbage wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:20 am Trump now +7 in Iowa. Not a good sign for Biden in the Midwest.

One poll, with a margin of error of +/- 4% Other polls show the Orange Buffoon ahead by 1-2%

BBC had Biden ahead by 1.2% in Iowa yesterday

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174

Re: Biden being up by 7 in one poll:

From Nate Silver:

I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number.

Now, in practice, pollsters may sit on their outliers or rejigger them rather than publish as in. But *good* pollsters like Selzer or ABC/WaPo *do* go with their numbers. So you'll get the occasional Biden +17 in WI or Trump +7 in IA.

Certainly Trump's best result in a high-quality poll in a while. We have gotten/will get lots more high-quality polls though and there haven't been many others with results like this.

The short version: use the average of multiple polls if you want to gauge how the race should go. Iowa is close, which when you think about it, is bad news for the Nazis.

Ugh. Florida is complex. Looking through some latest polls it's not as clear cut as I thought even a week ago. Trump gets kudos for managing the economy and the white men who voted for him are still with him and others. Where he's in trouble, as noted previously but I've always been leery, of is amongst white women. He won those in 2016 vs Clinton. Looks like he's losing those by a chunk to Biden. Which could be crucial in the swing areas of Tampa and Orlando. I still think Trump's going to lose in that in a state of minor slices of a few % here and there being important I think more democratic voters are motivated to come out and vote than 2016. And this and that, but it's tough to judge.

Are Trump supporters more likely to vote for him in Covid times than they were when he was up against Hillary? Possible but now likely?

More Texans have voted already than voted in 2016, when it was against Hitlery and her evil emails. Who are all these people voting? Has Trump found an extra 30% of voters to keep the state? If so, why didn’t they vote for him last time?

My heart is worried, but my head says “Biden cake walk!”

In same boat. If you think like almost 800,000 people in Florida have been infected, it would only take 5% of those to swing vote against Trump because of it and he'd be in trouble. Yet who knows what the fudge the voters will actually do.

I reckon Trump will win or it'll be a 269-269 draw.

Why? ...mainly because Trump's base and even lukewarm voters are more motivated to vote for him. It's emotional for them. He's their cult leader.

Biden's voters are more anti-Trump than emotionally connected to Biden.

Hope I'm wrong though.

EverReady wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:15 am

towny wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:07 am Are Trump supporters more likely to vote for him in Covid times than they were when he was up against Hillary? Possible but now likely?

More Texans have voted already than voted in 2016, when it was against Hitlery and her evil emails. Who are all these people voting? Has Trump found an extra 30% of voters to keep the state? If so, why didn’t they vote for him last time?

My heart is worried, but my head says “Biden cake walk!”

It's very dodgy over there. Think Haiti with big cars. We really need to get their nukes off them

We haven’t been able to get nukes off anyone. I really do think the US is genuinely farked if Biden doesn’t win. Their descent into fascism is rapid.

But Biden will win this in a canter. I think....

Auckman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:17 am Why? ...mainly because Trump's base and even lukewarm voters are more motivated to vote for him. It's emotional for them. He's their cult leader.

Biden's voters are more anti-Trump than emotionally connected to Biden.

Hope I'm wrong though.

Are they more motivated to vote for Trump now than 4 years ago?

Santa wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:20 am Anyone seen the email exchange between Greenwald and Betsy Reed where she says a) there is no evidence that the HB information is false and b) that it is legitimate for journalists to NOT cover that story because Trump is worse.

It is a collapse in US journalistic standards.

I dont think trumps base is any more energised than 2016.

Parts of my family will vote for him and have done.

The biggest eye opener is his closet supporters no longer hide their support. The voter turnout should spell very bad news for the Republicans. Yes their supporters are loud and proud, but do they outnumber Democrats? No.

Mulleh wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:54 pm I dont think trumps base is any more energised than 2016.

Parts of my family will vote for him and have done.

The biggest eye opener is his closet supporters no longer hide their support. The voter turnout should spell very bad news for the Republicans. Yes their supporters are loud and proud, but do they outnumber Democrats? No.

Good for them. They care about your country.

Mick Mannock wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:03 am

Santa wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:20 am Anyone seen the email exchange between Greenwald and Betsy Reed where she says a) there is no evidence that the HB information is false and b) that it is legitimate for journalists to NOT cover that story because Trump is worse.

It is a collapse in US journalistic standards.

Open pro-fascist bias is acceptable, but open anti-fascist bias demonstrates a collapse in US journalistic standards.

Okay.

Auckman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:13 am I reckon Trump will win or it'll be a 269-269 draw.

I think this will be a comfortable dem win.

Higher voter turnout means a likely dem win.

Now as there will be postal votes the results may take until the end of the week.

You may see a red mirage briefly following Tuesday. As the postal votes come in that will shift to blue

4071 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:04 pm

Mick Mannock wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:03 am

Santa wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:20 am Anyone seen the email exchange between Greenwald and Betsy Reed where she says a) there is no evidence that the HB information is false and b) that it is legitimate for journalists to NOT cover that story because Trump is worse.

It is a collapse in US journalistic standards.

Open pro-fascist bias is acceptable, but open anti-fascist bias demonstrates a collapse in US journalistic standards.

Okay.

Blah, blah. Read a book once.
Child.

EverReady wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:40 am

towny wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:20 am

EverReady wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:15 am

towny wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:07 am Are Trump supporters more likely to vote for him in Covid times than they were when he was up against Hillary? Possible but now likely?

More Texans have voted already than voted in 2016, when it was against Hitlery and her evil emails. Who are all these people voting? Has Trump found an extra 30% of voters to keep the state? If so, why didn’t they vote for him last time?

My heart is worried, but my head says “Biden cake walk!”

It's very dodgy over there. Think Haiti with big cars. We really need to get their nukes off them

We haven’t been able to get nukes off anyone. I really do think the US is genuinely farked if Biden doesn’t win. Their descent into fascism is rapid.

But Biden will win this in a canter. I think....

I don't know. The white folks have gone pretty crazy. I blame that film Black Panther

Silly to blame a single film on this, are you forgetting the Korean film that won an Oscar?

Mulleh wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:54 pm I dont think trumps base is any more energised than 2016.

Parts of my family will vote for him and have done.

The biggest eye opener is his closet supporters no longer hide their support. The voter turnout should spell very bad news for the Republicans. Yes their supporters are loud and proud, but do they outnumber Democrats? No.

If a lot more of Trump’s supporters don’t vote in 2020 than did in 2016, Biden is going to win by 20%. 90m have voted already, and they’re projecting 160m+ in total. That’s an increase of about 25%. That can’t be right so.... who are all these people voting?

That can’t be right.

Wear a mask, don't become infected with S T U P I D and contract Republican.

Auckman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:17 am Why? ...mainly because Trump's base and even lukewarm voters are more motivated to vote for him. It's emotional for them. He's their cult leader.

Biden's voters are more anti-Trump than emotionally connected to Biden.

Hope I'm wrong though.

This is my fear. Biden is not a charismatic candidate who lifts the crowds. People will not vote for Biden, they will vote against Trump.

With a huge turn out, this is definitely a Trump referendum and we will have to read the result as such.

I think there'll be riots and deaths on election night regardless of the result. Sad to see.

CrazyIslander wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:38 pm I think there'll be riots and deaths on election night regardless of the result. Sad to see.

There have been already. Why would these people stop now?

4071 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:04 pm

Mick Mannock wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:03 am

Santa wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:20 am Anyone seen the email exchange between Greenwald and Betsy Reed where she says a) there is no evidence that the HB information is false and b) that it is legitimate for journalists to NOT cover that story because Trump is worse.

It is a collapse in US journalistic standards.

Open pro-fascist bias is acceptable, but open anti-fascist bias demonstrates a collapse in US journalistic standards.

Okay.

TheFrog wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:10 pm

Auckman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:17 am Why? ...mainly because Trump's base and even lukewarm voters are more motivated to vote for him. It's emotional for them. He's their cult leader.

Biden's voters are more anti-Trump than emotionally connected to Biden.

Hope I'm wrong though.

This is my fear. Biden is not a charismatic candidate who lifts the crowds. People will not vote for Biden, they will vote against Trump.

With a huge turn out, this is definitely a Trump referendum and we will have to read the result as such.

Saw a poll ecently that showed that the there was more significantly more enthusiasm amongst the anti Trumper voters than the Pro Trumpers - I'll see if I can dig it out.

ovalball wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:08 pm

TheFrog wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:10 pm

Auckman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:17 am Why? ...mainly because Trump's base and even lukewarm voters are more motivated to vote for him. It's emotional for them. He's their cult leader.

Biden's voters are more anti-Trump than emotionally connected to Biden.

Hope I'm wrong though.

This is my fear. Biden is not a charismatic candidate who lifts the crowds. People will not vote for Biden, they will vote against Trump.

With a huge turn out, this is definitely a Trump referendum and we will have to read the result as such.

Saw a poll ecently that showed that the there was more significantly more enthusiasm amongst the anti Trumper voters than the Pro Trumpers - I'll see if I can dig it out.

It's definitely a Trump referendum. Whilst I doubt anti-Trumpers have more enthusiasm than Trumpteers (it's a cult), I believe they outnumber them.

ovalball wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:08 pm

TheFrog wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:10 pm

Auckman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:17 am Why? ...mainly because Trump's base and even lukewarm voters are more motivated to vote for him. It's emotional for them. He's their cult leader.

Biden's voters are more anti-Trump than emotionally connected to Biden.

Hope I'm wrong though.

This is my fear. Biden is not a charismatic candidate who lifts the crowds. People will not vote for Biden, they will vote against Trump.

With a huge turn out, this is definitely a Trump referendum and we will have to read the result as such.

Saw a poll recently that showed that the there was more enthusiasm amongst the anti Trumper voters than the Pro Trumpers - I'll see if I can dig it out.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321599/vot ... -high.aspx

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... m-problem/

I don't care about the polls. I hope it's a landslide for the Democrats but truly wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins.

Mick Mannock wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:39 pm

CrazyIslander wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:38 pm I think there'll be riots and deaths on election night regardless of the result. Sad to see.

There have been already. Why would these people stop now?

Maybe President Biden could offer free hair loss treatment in his improved version of Obamacare?

Restore their hair then they'll care.