The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

All things Rugby

Which way will you vote?

Conservative
74
31%
Labour
36
15%
Liberal Democrats
50
21%
UKIP
8
3%
Scottish National Party
7
3%
Greens
7
3%
Democratic Unionist Party
2
1%
Plaid Cymru
9
4%
Sinn Fein
19
8%
Gavin Henson/Other
24
10%
 
Total votes: 236

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HurricaneWasp
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by HurricaneWasp »

I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
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TranceNRG
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by TranceNRG »

eldanielfire wrote:It's quite obvious the whole group election debate is just a complete clusterfuck of a format. I'm sure SNP, Greens and PC would moan forever but ths is just a clusterfuck of a format that does nobody any justice. No wonder Cameron avoided it last time.
+1
Its a shit format that doesn't help the governing party. I think it wad the right decision by Cameron and May not to take part.
Mick Mannock
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Mick Mannock »

HurricaneWasp wrote:I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
An egotistical bunch of pricks
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by I like haggis »

HurricaneWasp wrote:I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
TV debates are shocking these days but May only avoided it because she calculated her personality and public speaking would do more damage than not showing up.
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Gavin Duffy
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Gavin Duffy »

She might have had to explain why she hates foreigners and enjoys watching foxes being ripped to pieces, the demented auld bag. Nasty piece of work she is.
kagamusha
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by kagamusha »

HurricaneWasp wrote:Possibly the most biased audience of any political debate I've seen. How can it be that skewed? I thought Rudd came across quite well when she was allowed to speak.

You don't watch Question Time I take it?
C69
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by C69 »

I like haggis wrote:
HurricaneWasp wrote:I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
TV debates are shocking these days but May only avoided it because she calculated her personality and public speaking would do more damage than not showing up.
Quite shocking to have such a lack of self confidence.
iarmhiman
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by iarmhiman »

Well the only thing I can say after watching that shambles earlier: The UK is fooked
kagamusha
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by kagamusha »

Oh the squealing of the stuck Tory pigs on here...such a change from the weeks of gloating about how big the Tory majority would be.
gros chien
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by gros chien »

I like haggis wrote:
HurricaneWasp wrote:I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
TV debates are shocking these days but May only avoided it because she calculated her personality and public speaking would do more damage than not showing up.
tend to agree. Freely ceded the day's press coverage and left the ball in Corbyn's court, hoping he'd make a mistake. He looked tired tonight, not as warm as in the previous tv 'debate', but had the others running cover for him every time rudd opened her mouth. Thought she was a bit agro for the first half - just looked and sounded nasty.

Found myself liking Farron more than I expected. Angus Robertson a bit disappointing because he's usually pretty good in the house. Didn't think Nuttal was as bad as some. Lucas got in the expected lick or two. Wood was disappointing compared to 2015.

Corbs's good performance on TV last night certainly galvanised our local party. We had five teams of canvassers out in our ward and another four in the one next door tonight.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by iarmhiman »

kagamusha wrote:Oh the squealing of the stuck Tory pigs on here...such a change from the weeks of gloating about how big the Tory majority would be.
It will still be big. The next GE in a few years will be very interesting though.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by I like haggis »

iarmhiman wrote:
kagamusha wrote:Oh the squealing of the stuck Tory pigs on here...such a change from the weeks of gloating about how big the Tory majority would be.
It will still be big. The next GE in a few years will be very interesting though.
Very interesting if Brexit goes badly and people are angry with lighter pockets but if Brexit is going well whoever the Conservative candidate is will win pretty easily I reckon.

I'm more on the Brexit going badly as May has shown she is a chancer rather than a master strategist and her two brainboxes have conspired to run one of the worst election campaigns I have ever seen.
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Gavin Duffy
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Gavin Duffy »

Brexit isn't going to go well, take that as read.
iarmhiman
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by iarmhiman »

Gavin Duffy wrote:Brexit isn't going to go well, take that as read.
We're all f**ked because of 51% dumb ass twats.
Yer Man
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Yer Man »

I like haggis wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
kagamusha wrote:Oh the squealing of the stuck Tory pigs on here...such a change from the weeks of gloating about how big the Tory majority would be.
It will still be big. The next GE in a few years will be very interesting though.
Very interesting if Brexit goes badly and people are angry with lighter pockets but if Brexit is going well whoever the Conservative candidate is will win pretty easily I reckon.

I'm more on the Brexit going badly as May has shown she is a chancer rather than a master strategist and her two brainboxes have conspired to run one of the worst election campaigns I have ever seen.
Not convinced that May will have much to do with Brexit negotiations.
Assuming she still wins the GE, I can see her being "replaced" within 18 months.
She has been dire these last couple of weeks.
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Margin_Walker
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Margin_Walker »

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-1)
LAB: 39% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

Again, there seems to be far less herding of polling companies this election. With YouGov the outlier on the 'scare the shit out of Tories' end of the spectrum.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by I like haggis »

Gavin Duffy wrote:Brexit isn't going to go well, take that as read.
Would agree - for a success we need a very good leader at the very least but we have Corbyn who is not PM material or a control freak who won't even tell her cabinet or the spin doctor she is paying however much too her plans, with the personality of a turnip and shown to have next to no political ability the past few weeks.

We are doomed.
kagamusha
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by kagamusha »

iarmhiman wrote:
kagamusha wrote:Oh the squealing of the stuck Tory pigs on here...such a change from the weeks of gloating about how big the Tory majority would be.
It will still be big. The next GE in a few years will be very interesting though.
Based on what evidence?

The Lib Dems could well take back quite a few West country seats which is the basis of the current Tory majority.
Santa
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Santa »

Azlan Roar wrote:Image

Good source - shocker if true.
Are people really trying to use Rudd's father's death against May?
iarmhiman
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by iarmhiman »

kagamusha wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
kagamusha wrote:Oh the squealing of the stuck Tory pigs on here...such a change from the weeks of gloating about how big the Tory majority would be.
It will still be big. The next GE in a few years will be very interesting though.
Based on what evidence?

The Lib Dems could well take back quite a few West country seats which is the basis of the current Tory majority.
Brexit. The British people are shitting it now that they are leaving. They know the Tories at the very worst can make the UK into a tax haven and secure capital into the country. The other party's can do feck all.
kagamusha
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by kagamusha »

iarmhiman wrote:
kagamusha wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
kagamusha wrote:Oh the squealing of the stuck Tory pigs on here...such a change from the weeks of gloating about how big the Tory majority would be.
It will still be big. The next GE in a few years will be very interesting though.
Based on what evidence?

The Lib Dems could well take back quite a few West country seats which is the basis of the current Tory majority.
Brexit. The British people are shitting it now that they are leaving. They know the Tories at the very worst can make the UK into a tax haven and secure capital into the country. The other party's can do feck all.
Could well be right, but I think you attributing a far more nuanced Brexit stance to the average UK voter given most of them cannot spell nuanced and if they could have no idea what it means.
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TranceNRG
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by TranceNRG »

I like haggis wrote:
HurricaneWasp wrote:I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
TV debates are shocking these days but May only avoided it because she calculated her personality and public speaking would do more damage than not showing up.
Load of nonsense. She said she wouldn't take part in any TV debates right from the beginning even when they had a huge lead. Her personality and public speaking weren't questioned until recently. In fact she delivered many good speeches including the Brexit speech that was well received.
David Cameron also didn't take part in the last debate simply because they had nothing to gain from it.
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Wendigo7
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Wendigo7 »

Anyone look at UK polling report?

Gathers all pollsters in U.K. Together for an easy read and then explains the variations.

The differences are nutty though. Conservative majority anywhere from 5 to 22% :uhoh: .

They've all got corrected models and it's a mess. x(
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by I like haggis »

TranceNRG wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
HurricaneWasp wrote:I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
TV debates are shocking these days but May only avoided it because she calculated her personality and public speaking would do more damage than not showing up.
Load of nonsense. She said she wouldn't take part in any TV debates right from the beginning even when they had a huge lead. Her personality and public speaking weren't questioned until recently. In fact she delivered many good speeches including the Brexit speech that was well received.
David Cameron also didn't take part in the last debate simply because they had nothing to gain from it.
She knew early doors the election wasn't to be won by her public speaking or personality....Big difference doing a speech at number 10 with 20 journos there or a party conference then in front of on the fence voters not clamouring to cheer every word.

Cameron took part in loads of tv debates, May has done 1 - big difference. A charismatic Tory would relish taking on Corbyn.
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dr dre2
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by dr dre2 »

The worrying thing is that YouGov are using massive sample sizes compared to the others and in my mind that is to counter some of the mistakes made on Brexit where for me the samples were too small. YouGov have done 2x 50k+ polls in the last week. Everyone else is still doing 1-2k. Except for Survey Monkey who did 19k and showed a 6 point lead for cons. YG were +3 & +4.

But the real story here is that Leanne Wood is an absolute Cu#t.
Last edited by dr dre2 on Wed May 31, 2017 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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paddyor
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by paddyor »

TranceNRG wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
HurricaneWasp wrote:I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
TV debates are shocking these days but May only avoided it because she calculated her personality and public speaking would do more damage than not showing up.
Load of nonsense. She said she wouldn't take part in any TV debates right from the beginning even when they had a huge lead. Her personality and public speaking weren't questioned until recently. In fact she delivered many good speeches including the Brexit speech that was well received.
David Cameron also didn't take part in the last debate simply because they had nothing to gain from it.
I think it's pretty clear she's a terrible speaker in an uncontrolled enviroment and thats a large part of her not doing any debates.
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paddyor
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by paddyor »

dr dre2 wrote:The worrying thing is that YouGov are using massive sample sizes compared to the others and in my mind that is to counter some of the mistakes made on Brexit where for me the samples were too small. YouGov have done 2x 50k+ polls in the last week. Everyone else is still doing 1-2k. Except for Survey Monkey who did 19k and showed a 6 point lead for cons. YG were +3 & +4.

But the real story here is that Leanne Wood is an absolute Cu#t.
I can't remember which one but didn't one of the Scottish posters explain to you that the sample sizes didn't matter beyond a certain point.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by iarmhiman »

dr dre2 wrote:The worrying thing is that YouGov are using massive sample sizes compared to the others and in my mind that is to counter some of the mistakes made on Brexit where for me the samples were too small. YouGov have done 2x 50k+ polls in the last week. Everyone else is still doing 1-2k. Except for Survey Monkey who did 19k and showed a 6 point lead for cons. YG were +3 & +4.

But the real story here is that Leanne Wood is an absolute Cu#t.
Why is she a plum? Becasue she doesn't hate immigrants?
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Wendigo7
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Wendigo7 »

dr dre2 wrote:The worrying thing is that YouGov are using massive sample sizes compared to the others and in my mind that is to counter some of the mistakes made on Brexit where for me the samples were too small. YouGov have done 2x 50k+ polls in the last week. Everyone else is still doing 1-2k. Except for Survey Monkey who did 19k and showed a 6 point lead for cons. YG were +3 & +4.

But the real story here is that Leanne Wood is an absolute Cu#t.
It's nice to see them trying something different.

I think they explained the method on SkyNews today. I'm still unsure with them because they've had what... 2 years ish out of the 5 they wanted to test and modify predictions?

Plus wild swings of 15% between pollsters means someone's got it very wrong. Hopefully they have it right though because otherwise it gets to the point where people just ignore them. x(
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TranceNRG
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by TranceNRG »

paddyor wrote:
TranceNRG wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
HurricaneWasp wrote:I think she should've taken part, but even from tonight you can see why she didn't. It was a complete farce of a debate. They all came across like squabbling primary school kids.
TV debates are shocking these days but May only avoided it because she calculated her personality and public speaking would do more damage than not showing up.
Load of nonsense. She said she wouldn't take part in any TV debates right from the beginning even when they had a huge lead. Her personality and public speaking weren't questioned until recently. In fact she delivered many good speeches including the Brexit speech that was well received.
David Cameron also didn't take part in the last debate simply because they had nothing to gain from it.
I think it's pretty clear she's a terrible speaker in an uncontrolled enviroment and thats a large part of her not doing any debates.
So parliament doesn't count?
The reason she didn't take part in head to head debates is the same reason David Cameron didn't want to do them - the ruling party doesn't have anything to gain and everything to lose.
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camroc1
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by camroc1 »

What's mystifying to me is that even though this is essentially a Brexit election, there's been fúck all actual debate of what the UK wants out of Brexit.
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Wendigo7
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Wendigo7 »

paddyor wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:The worrying thing is that YouGov are using massive sample sizes compared to the others and in my mind that is to counter some of the mistakes made on Brexit where for me the samples were too small. YouGov have done 2x 50k+ polls in the last week. Everyone else is still doing 1-2k. Except for Survey Monkey who did 19k and showed a 6 point lead for cons. YG were +3 & +4.

But the real story here is that Leanne Wood is an absolute Cu#t.
I can't remember which one but didn't one of the Scottish posters explain to you that the sample sizes didn't matter beyond a certain point.
I remember that paddyor.

I think someone said over 2,000 and it didn't overly matter wasn't it?
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dr dre2
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by dr dre2 »

iarmhiman wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:The worrying thing is that YouGov are using massive sample sizes compared to the others and in my mind that is to counter some of the mistakes made on Brexit where for me the samples were too small. YouGov have done 2x 50k+ polls in the last week. Everyone else is still doing 1-2k. Except for Survey Monkey who did 19k and showed a 6 point lead for cons. YG were +3 & +4.

But the real story here is that Leanne Wood is an absolute Cu#t.
Why is she a plum? Becasue she doesn't hate immigrants?
She's a patronising "I know better" social worker of limited intelligence who's managed to convince a few people she knows what she's talking about. Selected because she's a valley girl, a Rhondda girl, a South East Wales girl. Contrived for the same reason that PC did a 180 and morphed in to an 80s facsimile of the Labour party to try to win support there. But worst of all she even debates/argues like a valley girl. "So would you try to not pay anything in a reeeeeal divorce? Typical bloke (mum)" fudge off Leanne you big eared cnut.
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Dai another day
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Dai another day »

iarmhiman wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:The worrying thing is that YouGov are using massive sample sizes compared to the others and in my mind that is to counter some of the mistakes made on Brexit where for me the samples were too small. YouGov have done 2x 50k+ polls in the last week. Everyone else is still doing 1-2k. Except for Survey Monkey who did 19k and showed a 6 point lead for cons. YG were +3 & +4.

But the real story here is that Leanne Wood is an absolute Cu#t.
Why is she a plum? Becasue she doesn't hate immigrants?
She was quick to lecture Paul Nuttall on his immigrant views but when asked does she want more immigrants for Wales she became flustered and refused to say yes.

Who would have thought, eh?
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Dai another day
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Dai another day »

dr dre2 wrote:
iarmhiman wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:The worrying thing is that YouGov are using massive sample sizes compared to the others and in my mind that is to counter some of the mistakes made on Brexit where for me the samples were too small. YouGov have done 2x 50k+ polls in the last week. Everyone else is still doing 1-2k. Except for Survey Monkey who did 19k and showed a 6 point lead for cons. YG were +3 & +4.

But the real story here is that Leanne Wood is an absolute Cu#t.
Why is she a plum? Becasue she doesn't hate immigrants?
She's a patronising "I know better" social worker of limited intelligence who's managed to convince a few people she knows what she's talking about. Selected because she's a valley girl, a Rhondda girl, a South East Wales girl. Contrived for the same reason that PC did a 180 and morphed in to an 80s facsimile of the Labour party to try to win support there. But worst of all she even debates/argues like a valley girl. "So would you try to not pay anything in a reeeeeal divorce? Typical bloke (mum)" f**k off Leanne you big eared cnut.
She was abysmal.

"Vote for Plaid, the party for Wales, the party from Wales, the party of Wales blah blah blah"

Yeah, nah.

Plaid need a new direction and a new leader. Away from the wishy washy politics.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Words cannot express how happy I am that I spent this evening playing Dungeons & Dragons instead of watching the debate. I'm in a fucking amazing mood :D :thumbup:
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by openclashXX »

May is getting absolutely savaged on social media, Corbyn literally didn't have to do anything except turn up to the debates and keep relatively quiet in order to release an avalanche of shit online at May
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paddyor
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by paddyor »

No, less than 2000. Here it is.
topofthemoon wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
dr dre2 wrote:
EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – with just 13 days to go
This is an ORB poll, the guys who usually do an 800 sample which shows a heavy win for remain. On the other occasions the ORB sample exceeds 1500 it gets closer. This one is 2000+ (sample)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 75131.html
Somebody please send this idiot on a stats course
Come on then Duff, give me a lesson?

The correlation across the entire time frame or any window you choose, including the most recent time frame shows the smaller the sample group the bigger the win for remain. The bigger the sample group the closer the contest. This holds true across all polling companies with differing methodologies as a poll of polls OR across all polls by a single firm, ORB being the case in point. None of that is deniable or readable in any other way.

Now my qualitative reading of the causation is up for challenge, it is of course an opinion but the "stats" are the stats. Care to offer a qualitative opinion?

Here are the last few polls, missing the latest ORB poll (2000+ Sample with heavy remain win)

Do you spot the trend with the sample size?

Stay % Leave % Undecided % Date Pollster Sample
43 42 11 Jun 6, 2016 YouGov 2,001
43 48 9 Jun 5, 2016 ICM 2,047
52 40 8 Jun 5, 2016 ORB 800
41 45 11 Jun 3, 2016 YouGov 3,500
43 41 16 Jun 3, 2016 Opinium 2,007
41 41 17 May 31, 2016 YouGov 1,735
44 47 9 May 30, 2016 ICM 2,052
42 45 13 May 29, 2016 ICM 1,004
51 42 7 May 29, 2016 ORB 800
44 45 12 May 25, 2016 BMG Research 1,638
44 38 18 May 24, 2016 Survation 1,013
41 41 17 May 24, 2016 YouGov 1,500
45 45 10 May 22, 2016 ICM 2,003
58 38 4 May 22, 2016 ORB 800
You're contention is that somehow the larger samples capture a population that is being missed by the smaller ones. It's already been pointed out to you that there is nothing in statistical research to suggest any significant difference between a sample size of 800, 1000, 1500 or 2000. You have found numbers that are moving in a similar direction and extrapolated a relationship with no statistical significance.
http://forum.planetrugby.com/viewtopic. ... e#p4208459

Also this quite funny.

http://forum.planetrugby.com/viewtopic. ... 6#p4210201
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by El Homerino »

openclashXX wrote:May is getting absolutely savaged on social media, Corbyn literally didn't have to do anything except turn up to the debates and keep relatively quiet in order to release an avalanche of shit online at May
Fantastic news :thumbup:
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paddyor
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017 General Election Thread

Post by paddyor »

TranceNRG wrote:So parliament doesn't count?
The reason she didn't take part in head to head debates is the same reason David Cameron didn't want to do them - the ruling party doesn't have anything to gain and everything to lose.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/869908350019829760

Sometimes it's easy to forget that Cameron fucked a pig and carried on with the job.
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