The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

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MrDominator
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by MrDominator »

Aussies tampering with that ball big time.

Very suspicious amount of reverse swing.
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Rinkals
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Rinkals »

ovalball wrote:
Mahoney wrote:
ovalball wrote:
Mahoney wrote:18 overs until the new ball - which means that the ball will be old by the time the twilight zone comes into play. Might help.
If, very big if, we get as far as the Twilight zone, there might not be too many runs left to get. Normally you'd expect 178 runs in two sessions - it has, though, been slower going in this test (and the last).
Taunting the mockers gently, but what I'd like to see to feel that we didn't rather throw away today's good work is England get through the opening few overs and then the new ball for the loss of 2 or fewer wickets.

That would be, what - 33 overs. So roughly the first session, and somewhere between 80 & 100 runs. Leaving between 80 and 100 to get with Bairstow and probably either Root or Ali at the crease.

At that point I'd simultaneously be getting sillily excited but also have a good feeling that if we lost it would at least be after one hell of a fight.

Anyone know what the schedule is tomorrow? Standard, or are they still trying to make up some overs?
Standard start time I believe.

They won't want to bowl their Quicks too much until the new ball - so it will be Lyon and a few overs from each of the others - We can't really afford any of our remaining batsman, to fail. They all have to make a contribution and Root has to bat long.

The odds, and history, are severely stacked against England - but a good 1st hour could make it very tense and exciting.
I'm not a big believer in the invulnerability of historical run chases; the shorter forms of the game have shown us run rates that would have been unthinkable even a few years ago.

Root, Ali,Bairstowe and, to a lesser degree, Woakes all have what it takes to bring England home. The new ball is due in 18 overs, but I think that conditions won't assist as much as they did for England last night.
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Gazzamonster
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Gazzamonster »

178 runs needed in a days play.

6 wickets

One of the top 3 batsmen in the world in on 67

A capable 'nightwatchman'

Ali and Bairstow to come - Overton as well.

Broad also.

I think the Aussies are more worried about this than the Poms.

Fantastic match.
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Rinkals
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Rinkals »

Gazzamonster wrote:178 runs needed in a days play.

6 wickets

One of the top 3 batsmen in the world in on 67

A capable 'nightwatchman'

Ali and Bairstow to come - Overton as well.

Broad also.

I think the Aussies are more worried about this than the Poms.

Fantastic match.
I think the Aussie bowlers are not quite as ineffectual as you appear to belive.

If it were Australia on 176 for 4 with Smith at the crease against Anderson and Broad on a sun drenched pitch in benign conditions, then I would tend to agree; it should be a cakewalk, but Starc, Hazlewood and Cummings and Lyon are not as reliant on conditions.
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Gazzamonster
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Gazzamonster »

Rinkals wrote:
Gazzamonster wrote:178 runs needed in a days play.

6 wickets

One of the top 3 batsmen in the world in on 67

A capable 'nightwatchman'

Ali and Bairstow to come - Overton as well.

Broad also.

I think the Aussies are more worried about this than the Poms.

Fantastic match.
I think the Aussie bowlers are not quite as ineffectual as you appear to belive.

If it were Australia on 176 for 4 with Smith at the crease against Anderson and Broad on a sun drenched pitch in benign conditions, then I would tend to agree; it should be a cakewalk, but Starc, Hazlewood and Cummings and Lyon are not as reliant on conditions.
I don't think the Aussie bowlers are ineffectual. 3 proper fast bowlers are always going to be effective. But the first half hour tomorrow could very well decide the result.

What a cracking test this has been.
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theo
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by theo »

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Will Tell
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Will Tell »

My god it would be delicious, if only to shut them up, at least until Perth.
Paine needs to have a sock stuffed in it.
Boasting about 'sledging smart,' what drivel.
We have our share of likely lads but frankly I'd be embarrassed if they came out with sh!te like that.

If, and it's a massive if, we do the needful tomorrow each side will have shared ineptitude equally.
Or will they? Debutante no9 top scoring in the 1st innings of a must win Ashes test is bad, but having
thrown away an unassailable position the Ozzers would shade it.

Tomorrow out of the gate Starc, Cummings & co are going to be rabid.
Lyon alone will expel enough hot air to finish off that cracked Antarctic ice shelf.
If Root gets his eye in we should do it. We've got 4 batsmen, if you consider Woakes & Overton half a bat each.
However if Root ends up marshaling the tail and goes with 25 still to get it'll be Edgbaston in reverse,
with the Ozzer quicks bouncing our tail, but under the lights.

Surely the manly men would rather lose this one than scrape a win after a 1st innings declaration.
Perth is a given and you have to be confident of at lease one result in Melbourne or Sydney... Man the eff up :P
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Mahoney »

Thomas wrote:Yeah, Broad is still the goods and he'll do better. Anderson? I'm not entirely sure. He's a bowler who is deadly on his own pitches but is a rank 2nd grade bowler when he plays overseas.

If one of them is injured, what happens? Who's the back up?
Not that I've been saving up or anything...

Anderson's become a much better bowler these last 4 years. He's bowled very well in the UAE & West Indies; less so in India (understandable) & South Africa (the one real blot on his copybook) but even in those two series where he was struggling for wickets he kept his economy well under 3.

Big three matches for him coming up. If he can keep his series average under 25 I reckon he can claim to be a 1st grade bowler in all but Indian conditions.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... iew=series
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Wallah »

Catching up on todays highlights and looks an exciting finish tomorrow. Wonder how the pitch will play in the morning? Still don't think Smith should be blamed for the follow on decision as it was the right move, wether he lives to regret it is another thing.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Wallah wrote:Still don't think Smith should be blamed for the follow on decision as it was the right move, wether he lives to regret it is another thing.
Bit like the decision to bowl first
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by ovalball »

Rinkals wrote:
ovalball wrote:
Mahoney wrote:
ovalball wrote:
Mahoney wrote:18 overs until the new ball - which means that the ball will be old by the time the twilight zone comes into play. Might help.
If, very big if, we get as far as the Twilight zone, there might not be too many runs left to get. Normally you'd expect 178 runs in two sessions - it has, though, been slower going in this test (and the last).
Taunting the mockers gently, but what I'd like to see to feel that we didn't rather throw away today's good work is England get through the opening few overs and then the new ball for the loss of 2 or fewer wickets.

That would be, what - 33 overs. So roughly the first session, and somewhere between 80 & 100 runs. Leaving between 80 and 100 to get with Bairstow and probably either Root or Ali at the crease.

At that point I'd simultaneously be getting sillily excited but also have a good feeling that if we lost it would at least be after one hell of a fight.

Anyone know what the schedule is tomorrow? Standard, or are they still trying to make up some overs?
Standard start time I believe.

They won't want to bowl their Quicks too much until the new ball - so it will be Lyon and a few overs from each of the others - We can't really afford any of our remaining batsman, to fail. They all have to make a contribution and Root has to bat long.

The odds, and history, are severely stacked against England - but a good 1st hour could make it very tense and exciting.
I'm not a big believer in the invulnerability of historical run chases; the shorter forms of the game have shown us run rates that would have been unthinkable even a few years ago.

Root, Ali,Bairstowe and, to a lesser degree, Woakes all have what it takes to bring England home. The new ball is due in 18 overs, but I think that conditions won't assist as much as they did for England last night.
I agree with you re historic records - against a lesser attack, I'd be quite hopeful (but not confident). As it is, our left handers will be facing some rapid leg theory from one end and Lyon, spinning it away from the other. It's going to be a massive task. Need lots of the rub of the green.

In the unlikely event that we survive the 1st hour or so, I think it will be too tense for me to watch - but also too intense for me to get any sleep. Normally, however, these situations don't live to their billing and a bunch of wickets will fall sometime in the 1st session making the result a foregone conclusion.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Mahoney »

That odds calculator they uses has still got Aus at 77% chance of victory.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by SecretAgentMan »

Ellafan wrote:Well, none of you pommies took my bet earlier in the thread.

Seeing as you didn't, and England s still about there or there abouts, I'm downgrading it to a shit mass produced bottle of NZ Malbouough sav blanc cat's piss.

Still drinkable (barely), but late in the evening after you first enjoyed something better.
:lol: Could you possibly be any more obsessed with all things Kiwi? Sad.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Thomas »

Mahoney wrote:
Thomas wrote:Yeah, Broad is still the goods and he'll do better. Anderson? I'm not entirely sure. He's a bowler who is deadly on his own pitches but is a rank 2nd grade bowler when he plays overseas.

If one of them is injured, what happens? Who's the back up?
Not that I've been saving up or anything...

Anderson's become a much better bowler these last 4 years. He's bowled very well in the UAE & West Indies; less so in India (understandable) & South Africa (the one real blot on his copybook) but even in those two series where he was struggling for wickets he kept his economy well under 3.

Big three matches for him coming up. If he can keep his series average under 25 I reckon he can claim to be a 1st grade bowler in all but Indian conditions.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... iew=series
It's his first ever 5 wicket haul on Australian soil and this was the wicket he was going to get it on. It'll be interesting to see how he goes in Perth.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by acenas of the day »

Would be great for the series from a neutral point of view if England manage to chase this down.

Great fightback but I think lyon will be too much for the left handers.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Masterji »

Gut instinct tells me that England will be bowled out for around 270-280. But there is a 10% chance they might win and if they do, the series will come alive.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Thomas »

Masterji wrote:Gut instinct tells me that England will be bowled out for around 270-280. But there is a 10% chance they might win and if they do, the series will come alive.
The first hour will be critical. Losing Malan was bad. He was set. If the Aussies get Root out, they'll probably slowly work through the lineup with some resistance from Ali and co.

If Root stays and his partners hang around, then all bets are off. I'm expecting Lyon to be an absolute handful on this pitch. The umpires have been ridiculously bad though...so anything can happen.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Masterji »

Thomas wrote:
Masterji wrote:Gut instinct tells me that England will be bowled out for around 270-280. But there is a 10% chance they might win and if they do, the series will come alive.
The first hour will be critical. Losing Malan was bad. He was set. If the Aussies get Root out, they'll probably slowly work through the lineup with some resistance from Ali and co.

If Root stays and his partners hang around, then all bets are off. I'm expecting Lyon to be an absolute handful on this pitch. The umpires have been ridiculously bad though...so anything can happen.
Root has to be positive even if early wickets fall, because if Lyon is allowed to bowl for less than 2 an over there is no chance England will get anywhere near. The new ball will be opportunity and a threat for England but I still fancy Aussies by around 70.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Thomas »

I have an inkling that if wickets fall, they'll fall quickly. But all it takes is some gumption and the Aussies will have their backs to the wall.

Watching Lyon bowl last night was like watching Warne bowl at his peak. Every ball was a hand grenade.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Dumbledore »

Is this the part where HKCJ pops back in to tell us how many English are suddenly in the thread?

Been a pretty amazing Test. England probably favourites at this point, if they win it'll be an epic.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Masterji »

England can never be fav chasing 350.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Mahoney »

Dumbledore wrote:Is this the part where HKCJ pops back in to tell us how many English are suddenly in the thread?

Been a pretty amazing Test. England probably favourites at this point, if they win it'll be an epic.
Go on... the statistical models make it 78/21 in Aus favour (1% chance of a draw).
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by SecretAgentMan »

Dumbledore wrote:Is this the part where HKCJ pops back in to tell us how many English are suddenly in the thread?

Been a pretty amazing Test. England probably favourites at this point, if they win it'll be an epic.
:roll:
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Dumbledore »

Mahoney wrote:
Dumbledore wrote:Is this the part where HKCJ pops back in to tell us how many English are suddenly in the thread?

Been a pretty amazing Test. England probably favourites at this point, if they win it'll be an epic.
Go on... the statistical models make it 78/21 in Aus favour (1% chance of a draw).
Really? That seems very high to me. What are the models based on? Can easily see Woakes and Overton digging in for annoyingly competent 30-40s, Ali flashing around and piling on some runs in a hurry, Bairstow's scored big runs in the last few years as well. Don't think this Australian team are massively well suited to this sort of innings temperamentally either, get too frustrated too quickly.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Thomas »

Broad also has that annoying habit of quickly racking up the runs. England have time on their hands.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by SecretAgentMan »

So we're finally all agreed then, if Smith hadn't arrogantly refused to enforce the follow-on Oz would've have won the game by now.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Saint »

Dumbledore wrote:
Mahoney wrote:
Dumbledore wrote:Is this the part where HKCJ pops back in to tell us how many English are suddenly in the thread?

Been a pretty amazing Test. England probably favourites at this point, if they win it'll be an epic.
Go on... the statistical models make it 78/21 in Aus favour (1% chance of a draw).
Really? That seems very high to me. What are the models based on? Can easily see Woakes and Overton digging in for annoyingly competent 30-40s, Ali flashing around and piling on some runs in a hurry, Bairstow's scored big runs in the last few years as well. Don't think this Australian team are massively well suited to this sort of innings temperamentally either, get too frustrated too quickly.
History. Lots and f sides have looked capable of winning from this type of position before; the reality is that it just doesn't happen very often.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Thomas »

SecretAgentMan wrote:So we're finally all agreed then, if Smith hadn't arrogantly refused to enforce the follow-on Oz would've have won the game by now.
Ahhh nah.

England would be setting Australia a target of about 90 with a session to play. Under lights. With a new ball.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Clogs »

Dumbledore wrote:Is this the part where HKCJ pops back in to tell us how many English are suddenly in the thread?

Been a pretty amazing Test. England probably favourites at this point, if they win it'll be an epic.




:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:



Never seen a more blatant attempt at mockers appeasement than what this young lad has just posted.






Australia to wrap this up in the first session and normal transmission to resume shortly thereafter. Here. First.

















England favourites... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by ovalball »

Thomas wrote:Broad also has that annoying habit of quickly racking up the runs. England have time on their hands.
He tends to do it only very occasionally and when there's no great pressure - e.g. in a lost cause. What he isn't very good at, is supporting a more senior batsman with a gutsy defensive effort.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Saint »

Clogs wrote:
Dumbledore wrote:Is this the part where HKCJ pops back in to tell us how many English are suddenly in the thread?

Been a pretty amazing Test. England probably favourites at this point, if they win it'll be an epic.




:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:



Never seen a more blatant attempt at mockers appeasement than what this young lad has just posted.






Australia to wrap this up in the first session and normal transmission to resume shortly thereafter. Here. First.

















England favourites... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
So much this. We have seen time after time after time that in the 4th inning a collapse is literally just round the corner.

Oz have two really obvious opportunities:

1 - the first hour tomorrow
2 - the new ball

Additionally if they can keep it tight, they might push this into the 3rd session

If a single wicket falls in either of the first two chances, it's very likely to be 2-3 wickets thanks to the way this stuff just happens, and that is game over

Basically, England still need everything to go their way, Australia still only need one or two things
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Clogs »

I am going to declare this early. There is more chance of a meteor hitting the Adelaide oval during play, than there is of England winning this match.

In fact there is more chance of 2 large meteors, one made entirely of ice cream, the other a delicious brandy custard, striking the Adelaide oval 23 minutes apart, than there is of England winning this match.

My suggestion is to take a large bowl and spoon to the ground as you are more likely to have a astronomically delicious dessert than to see an England win. Here. First.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by mabunch78 »

One hour to go. 10 mins walk. I'm wet.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by SecretAgentMan »

mabunch78 wrote:One hour to go. 10 mins walk. I'm wet.
I thought it kicks off at 1:30pm Adelaide time, ie in about 7 minutes?
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Clive Simms »

Got my fingers crossed for England and Wales to win this. I think if Root stays the distance England and Wales can win. Come on England and Wales!
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by Thomas »

SecretAgentMan wrote:
mabunch78 wrote:One hour to go. 10 mins walk. I'm wet.
I thought it kicks off at 1:30pm Adelaide time, ie in about 7 minutes?
Nope.

2pm local time.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by wamberal99 »

And it is a beautiful day for cricket in Adelaide, apparently. Fine and relatively cool, with zero chance of rain.


I have a feeling in my water (as an old manager of mine used to say, incidentally he was from Adelaide, and managed to get the great Sir Don onto our Board) that whoever is ahead after the first hour will win it. No wickets, England will win. Two or more wickets, it will be ours.


One wicket? Depends who it is. If it is Root we should win.
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by SecretAgentMan »

Thomas wrote:
SecretAgentMan wrote:
mabunch78 wrote:One hour to go. 10 mins walk. I'm wet.
I thought it kicks off at 1:30pm Adelaide time, ie in about 7 minutes?
Nope.

2pm local time.
Cheers. Can't wait.

This has been a great test so far. :nod:
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by grievous »

You beauty!
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Re: The OFFICIAL 2017-18 Ashes Thread

Post by SecretAgentMan »

:shock:
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