IS TESLA GOING BUST

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Lorthern Nights

Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Sandstorm wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: I also just dont find the S or X remotely asthetically pleasing and i do like Porsche, the cars just work and dont give you any headaches unlike say JLR's which often do as nice a ride as they are.
Hmmmm....I don't see anyone handing out design awards for Porsche exterior design either. The Taycan is the nicest looking Porker in decades, but it's still a pug.
Eye of the beholder and all that. I like them, pretty much all of them too except the panamera i just cant as much as ive tried.
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inactionman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by inactionman »

Sandstorm wrote:
inactionman wrote:
Sandstorm wrote:
backrow wrote:Are hybrids not a better option in the uk at present ? 30 miles range would be fine for work and back, yet if I want to go to Devon for the weekend I can use petrol as normal.

Several kuga RAV4 class things avail now that are spacious for 5 and are hybrids.
Except you have to drive like Nan on a Sunday to avoid the petrol engine kicking in for those (highly unlikely range of) 30 miles. A hybrid is a tax dodge, not a way to save fuel.
With plug-in hybrids, the range is really just your average in-town commute or tesco and home, which is generally the most common use of a car for most people. They do use fuel more efficiently though (they operate the engine at a higher loading to charge battery, which gets more energy from a given unit of fuel, for petrols at least), which is the raison d'être for the Prius-type of car.
Yes, but they also weigh more which negates a lot of the fuel saved driving on battery power. There's no magic bullet with batteries. The answer that sits with hydrogen fuel cells which will make the latest BEVs look like milk floats in less than 10 years. :)

50L of hydrogen at £1 a litre and you'll get 1000 miles range. Fill up in just 5 mins once every 3 weeks. Game changer.
The prius is significantly more efficient than general ICE cars but it's still ultimately based upon IC with a small electric buffer. It's not really a paradigm shift, just addressing the worst of petrol's faults.

The qualities of hydrogen make it very attractive indeed - it can be created and used in a number of ways - but I was under impression storage and handling issues were proving tricky to overcome. I appreciate nothing is truly insurmountable, but I was under impression we're still some way away from making hydrogen-based vehicles practical.
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Insane_Homer
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Insane_Homer »

inactionman wrote: but I was under impression storage and handling issues were proving tricky to overcome.
https://www.google.com/search?biw=1920& ... arbr6PFiaQ

:roll:
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inactionman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by inactionman »

Insane_Homer wrote:
inactionman wrote: but I was under impression storage and handling issues were proving tricky to overcome.
https://www.google.com/search?biw=1920& ... arbr6PFiaQ

:roll:
??
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Insane_Homer
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Insane_Homer »

inactionman wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
inactionman wrote: but I was under impression storage and handling issues were proving tricky to overcome.
https://www.google.com/search?biw=1920& ... arbr6PFiaQ

:roll:
??
Petrol is still just as dangerous.
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inactionman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by inactionman »

Insane_Homer wrote:
inactionman wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
inactionman wrote: but I was under impression storage and handling issues were proving tricky to overcome.
https://www.google.com/search?biw=1920& ... arbr6PFiaQ

:roll:
??
Petrol is still just as dangerous.
Flammable stuff isn't always safe? No shit sherlock.

I was actually refering to problems of storing something with an energy density orders of scale lower than current fossil fuels and of a molecular size small enough to cause issues with seals, all that sort of stuff, but cap'n genius has kindly reminded me that flammable stuff burns.
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Sandstorm
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Sandstorm »

inactionman wrote: I was actually refering to problems of storing something with an energy density orders of scale lower than current fossil fuels and of a molecular size small enough to cause issues with seals, all that sort of stuff, but cap'n genius has kindly reminded me that flammable stuff burns.
I don't believe that hydrogen has issues above that is holding it back. The price per tank is the same as petrol at present, so storage isn't a problem or it would cost much more.
The issue is that you get 350 miles out of a 2020 fuel cell vehicle which is on a par with petrols and the best BEVs, but still 25% short of diesel's range.

Once they crack the range issue, hydrogen will rule the forecourt! We'll just produce it locally and with low transport costs it'll kill off the fossil fuel guys for good.
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Insane_Homer
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Insane_Homer »

inactionman wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
inactionman wrote:
Insane_Homer wrote:
inactionman wrote: but I was under impression storage and handling issues were proving tricky to overcome.
https://www.google.com/search?biw=1920& ... arbr6PFiaQ

:roll:
??
Petrol is still just as dangerous.
Flammable stuff isn't always safe? No shit sherlock.

I was actually refering to problems of storing something with an energy density orders of scale lower than current fossil fuels and of a molecular size small enough to cause issues with seals, all that sort of stuff, but cap'n genius has kindly reminded me that flammable stuff burns.
Strange that with these 'problems' we already have a growing network of Hydrogen fuel stations in the UK, highlights include one on the M25 and one on the M40.

I'd wager they've already managed to solve them.

So no more dangerous that Petrol is now and probably a fudge load more than when petrol first became ubiquitous.
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inactionman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by inactionman »

Sandstorm wrote:
inactionman wrote: I was actually refering to problems of storing something with an energy density orders of scale lower than current fossil fuels and of a molecular size small enough to cause issues with seals, all that sort of stuff, but cap'n genius has kindly reminded me that flammable stuff burns.
I don't believe that hydrogen has issues above that is holding it back. The price per tank is the same as petrol at present, so storage isn't a problem or it would cost much more.
The issue is that you get 350 miles out of a 2020 fuel cell vehicle which is on a par with petrols and the best BEVs, but still 25% short of diesel's range.

Once they crack the range issue, hydrogen will rule the forecourt! We'll just produce it locally and with low transport costs it'll kill off the fossil fuel guys for good.
I think if you're looking at price you should be looking at duties payable. It's the bulk of fossil fuel cost (if memory serves, about 2/3 of the cost in UK for petrol), and so at-the-pump price isn't comparable.

And hydrogen does cause issues with storage, it's usually pressurised (not good from 'things go bang' perspective) or is cryogenically frozen to liquid form, or otherwise combined with other elements. It's also prone to leakage, which is unfortunate as there are continual rumblings about replacing natural gas networks with hydrogen - which we could create in any which way we wanted, including renewable - but the seals across the network aren't always up to task.

I agree hydrogen is one of a number of potential alternatives for cars, and I'd hope that ongoing developments would overcome some of the standing issues, which is frankly a time and resource issue. I've said in previous posts, it's quite complex to process fossil fuels but we've invested enough through the years to make it 'affordable' (in a literal pounds and pence sense) - take that funding and development effort and apply to alternatives and these will become increasingly attractive.

Of course, the fundamental issues that we struck energy 'gold' with fossil fuels - substances that millions of years and geological pressures had turned to amazingly high-energy-density fuels - and we've cut our cloth transport-wise with this in mind. I'd wonder if the ever-increasing vehicle weights would have occurred if we'd had to use something less energy-dense instead. I'm a complete hypocrite in this sense, my car is well over 2 tonnes and it has no need to be - and I believe we should looking at this end of things as well. That would certainly help get hydrogen fuel cells further off the ground.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Luckycharmer »

Duff Paddy wrote:Better option for whom? The vast majority of people only drive short distances in a day.
I was in with one of Irelands largest car rental companies (Part of one of the worlds biggest), they own around 8000 cars. I asked them how many of them were Electric, the answer surprised me Zero. They seems to be no market for renting them here.
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Sandstorm
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Sandstorm »

inactionman wrote: Of course, the fundamental issues that we struck energy 'gold' with fossil fuels - substances that millions of years and geological pressures had turned to amazingly high-energy-density fuels - and we've cut our cloth transport-wise with this in mind. I'd wonder if the ever-increasing vehicle weights would have occurred if we'd had to use something less energy-dense instead. I'm a complete hypocrite in this sense, my car is well over 2 tonnes and it has no need to be - and I believe we should looking at this end of things as well. That would certainly help get hydrogen fuel cells further off the ground.
:thumbup: :thumbup:
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inactionman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by inactionman »

Insane_Homer wrote:
Strange that with these 'problems' we already have a growing network of Hydrogen fuel stations in the UK, highlights include one on the M25 and one on the M40.

I'd wager they've already managed to solve them.

So no more dangerous that Petrol is now and probably a fudge load more than when petrol first became ubiquitous.

You can stick petrol in a tank, you need to do more with hydrogen - its energy density at atmospheric temp and pressure is infeasibly small, but under pressure or reduced temp we get benefits. Getting increased pressure or reduced temp is where the challenges lie, and is where a lot of research and development effort. As I have explained, repeatedly, but you're prattling on about 'dangerous'.

Read this:
https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-storage
Last edited by inactionman on Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sandstorm
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Sandstorm »

Luckycharmer wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:Better option for whom? The vast majority of people only drive short distances in a day.
I was in with one of Irelands largest car rental companies (Part of one of the worlds biggest), they own around 8000 cars. I asked them how many of them were Electric, the answer surprised me Zero. They seems to be no market for renting them here.
They'll take years to catch on with hire companies. Too many issues with customers usually not being from the area where they hire the car, so unfamiliar with distances between places. They'll run out of juice.

This leads to increased call out costs from AA for recovery, lost charging cables, issues paying for the electricity from charging stations in foreign countries, etc. Sounds like a real minefield for that industry.
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inactionman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by inactionman »

Luckycharmer wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:Better option for whom? The vast majority of people only drive short distances in a day.
I was in with one of Irelands largest car rental companies (Part of one of the worlds biggest), they own around 8000 cars. I asked them how many of them were Electric, the answer surprised me Zero. They seems to be no market for renting them here.
I'd wonder if that's because electric requires a little bit of foreknowledge and planning around recharging points etc, whereas it goes without saying you'd be able to find a petrol station.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by dinsdale »

Insane_Homer wrote:
inactionman wrote: but I was under impression storage and handling issues were proving tricky to overcome.
https://www.google.com/search?biw=1920& ... arbr6PFiaQ

:roll:
Last time I checked, petrol cars don't need the fuel stored at 10,000 psi.
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Zakar
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Zakar »

Is it really 10k psi? :shock:

Pressurised fuel works with lpg, but that's 320psi.
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Leinsterman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Leinsterman »

inactionman wrote:
Luckycharmer wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:Better option for whom? The vast majority of people only drive short distances in a day.
I was in with one of Irelands largest car rental companies (Part of one of the worlds biggest), they own around 8000 cars. I asked them how many of them were Electric, the answer surprised me Zero. They seems to be no market for renting them here.
I'd wonder if that's because electric requires a little bit of foreknowledge and planning around recharging points etc, whereas it goes without saying you'd be able to find a petrol station.
Also because they're more expensive to buy so depreciation is possibly higher when they sell the cars after about a year.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Zakar »

backrow wrote:
Sandstorm wrote:
backrow wrote:Are hybrids not a better option in the uk at present ? 30 miles range would be fine for work and back, yet if I want to go to Devon for the weekend I can use petrol as normal.

Several kuga RAV4 class things avail now that are spacious for 5 and are hybrids.
Except you have to drive like Nan on a Sunday to avoid the petrol engine kicking in for those (highly unlikely range of) 30 miles. A hybrid is a tax dodge, not a way to save fuel.
Most of the time in sW London you can’t drive fast anyways so NaN-like driving is very likely to happen, as well as sitting in traffic.
How does one drive like Sodium azide?
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Jeff the Bear
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Jeff the Bear »

The tax rules are definitely going to push EV sales over the next couple of years. The problem for Tesla is that the large OEMs are now arriving with EV product that people might want (Taycan, E-Tron, I-Pace, Mustang Mach E) as well as lower cost options (VW ID, Hyundai Kona).
To throw my two penneths worth in...my office got a Kona as a pool car a couple of months ago. I've driven it extensively since, and I have to say I'm thoroughly impressed. For what is, as noted, a mid-range price electric vehicle, it still has a ridiculous amount of torque (to the degree that having never driven an electric car before, and needing to overtake lots of logging trucks here in Northland, the first time I attempted the manoeuvre in the Kona I put my foot to the floor and I almost sent myself off the other side of the road such was the acceleration).
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by The Man Without Fear »

How in God's name did you get a Kona? There's about three of them in the UK, such is Hyundai's inability to match battery supply with demand, as if this came as a surprise, the stupid sods.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Leinsterman »

Loads of Konas in Ireland. For some reason Hyundai are more popular here than Kia, which is crazy because the Niro is a far nicer car despite the two of them being based in the same electric motor, battery pack and chassis.

The Hyundai marketing team did a great job promoting the brand here over other alternatives.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Jeff the Bear »

The Man Without Fear wrote:How in God's name did you get a Kona? There's about three of them in the UK, such is Hyundai's inability to match battery supply with demand, as if this came as a surprise, the stupid sods.
I'm in New Zealand. Although, tbf, I'm slightly amazed that a market as small as NZ has more access to a brand new electric car than the UK (I've also seen a few of them about town as well, and I live in something of a backwater town). Good car. Also has that fancy/annoying system of dragging you back into the middle of the lane should you veer too close to the lines.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Duff Paddy »

Leinsterman wrote:Loads of Konas in Ireland. For some reason Hyundai are more popular here than Kia, which is crazy because the Niro is a far nicer car despite the two of them being based in the same electric motor, battery pack and chassis.

The Hyundai marketing team did a great job promoting the brand here over other alternatives.
The Hyundai franchise is owned by one guy in Ireland as far as I know - a goldmine akin to the one Bill Cullen had with Renault back in the day. Not many of them left, most are centrally owned these days.
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Leinsterman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Leinsterman »

Duff Paddy wrote:
Leinsterman wrote:Loads of Konas in Ireland. For some reason Hyundai are more popular here than Kia, which is crazy because the Niro is a far nicer car despite the two of them being based in the same electric motor, battery pack and chassis.

The Hyundai marketing team did a great job promoting the brand here over other alternatives.
The Hyundai franchise is owned by one guy in Ireland as far as I know - a goldmine akin to the one Bill Cullen had with Renault back in the day. Not many of them left, most are centrally owned these days.
Opel are another. DG Gowan own the franchise as well as the Peugeot one.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by EverReady »

I remember meeting the lads who had Kia just as they were losing it. It was the Harris truck crew on the Naas Road. Said the South Koreans were too difficult to deal with. I wondered would they regret it as I thought they might take off
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by kiap »

Zakar wrote:Is it really 10k psi? :shock:

Pressurised fuel works with lpg, but that's 320psi.
Maybe 8k psi.

Interesting article here, though, on hydrogen as a zero emissions combustion fuel - stored as hydrides - a liquid solution (~200 psi). It's very long so I've snipped the fcuk out of it to get the gist:
  • This company may have solved one of the hardest problems in clean energy
    • The “hydrogen economy” may be a thing after all.
      By David Roberts Feb 16, 2018
    ... Seattle native Evan Johnson thinks ... he’s finally figured out how to unlock a hydrogen economy ...

    Image
    A HyTech electrolyzer (in this case, attached to a stationary diesel generator). HyTech Power

    It’s not much to look at, just a tube filled with distilled water. Suspended roughly in the center is a small titanium plate coated with a bespoke mix of electrocatalysts optimized to pull hydrogen and oxygen apart. The gases rise off the plate in a continuous stream of bubbles. It’s all sealed in metal and there are no moving parts, so it is extremely durable and requires little maintenance.

    ... Johnson boasts that his electrolyzer can produce hydrogen at about three or four times the rate of electrolyzers with similar footprints, using about a third the electrical current ...
    skip this - interesting sidebar but off topic: show
    A way to clean up diesel engines for a market that badly needs one
    The first product, scheduled to debut in April, is the key to everything else.

    It’s called Internal Combustion Assistance (ICA), a modification to internal combustion engines that enables them to substantially increase their fuel efficiency and reduce their air pollution. It does this by adding tiny amounts of gaseous hydrogen and oxygen to the fuel just before it is combusted in the engine’s cylinders. The HHO mix lends intensity to the combustion, allowing the fuel to burn more completely, generating more oomph and less pollution.

    The ICA system can technically work on any internal combustion engine, but to begin with, HyTech is targeting the dirtiest engines with the fastest return on investment, namely diesel engines — in vehicles like trucks, delivery vans, buses, and forklifts, but also big, stationary diesel generators, which still provide backup (and even primary) power by the millions across the world.

    ... The cost of transforming a dirty diesel engine to a relatively clean one: around $10,000 installed, which HyTech estimates will pay itself back in nine months through avoided fuel and maintenance costs.

    Image
    HyTech’s internal combustion assistance (ICA) product, installed on a large diesel engine. (See the little row of injectors?) HyTech Power

    HyTech is not the first or only company to develop an HHO additive system, but nothing on the market comes close to those kinds of numbers.

    The ICA achieves this efficiency thanks to a computerized timing controller that senses and analyzes the turning of the crankshafts and camshafts to determine the precise timing and size of the HHO injection. Previous HHO systems more or less flooded the engine with HHO through the air intake, but HyTech uses “port injection,” with a separate injector at the intake valve of each cylinder, controlled by the timer. Each injector (roughly the size of a human hair) squirts tiny, precisely measure jets of HHO into the cylinder just when it’s needed.

    This level of precision allows the ICA to use much less hydrogen than its competitors, much more efficiently. A small, onboard electrolyzer produces more than enough.

    These are bold claims, but so far they’ve held up. The ICA has been listed by the EPA as a candidate for emissions-reduction technology; respected testing firm SGS found that the ICA boosted the fuel efficiency of a FedEx delivery truck by 27.4 percent; FedEx is currently road testing the ICA on a fleet of trucks and finding 20 to 30 percent better fuel economy and substantially reduced DPF maintenance costs. In third-party testing, and in limited local sales around Redmond, the ICA has performed as promised.

    If it can do that as HyTech scales — reliably boost fuel economy by a third and reduce pollution to almost nothing, with a nine-month payback — there’s no end to the opportunities. Between drayage (port) trucks, freight ships, refrigerator trailers, long-haul trucks, buses, generators, and all the other dirty diesel engines out there, the company estimates that clean-up is a $100 billion market.

    The ICA doesn’t rely on any new infrastructure or subsidies. It’s a way to tap into a big market, reduce emissions immediately, and accumulate funding for longer-term efforts to replace diesel entirely.
    HyTech also wants to clean up existing cars

    ... it will take any engine that runs on diesel, gasoline, propane, or CNG and switch it over to run on 100 percent hydrogen. (The company is currently in the process of getting its retrofit product certified by the California Air Resources Board as zero-emissions.) This would allow any driver to get a zero-emissions vehicle for substantially less than the cost of buying a new electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.

    Johnson acknowledges that, if he were designing a vehicle from scratch, he would design it around a hydrogen fuel cell with no combustion, but “we have no interest in becoming a car company,” he says. Instead, HyTech wants to clean up existing vehicles.

    For a pure-hydrogen (as opposed to mixed HHO) application like this, the electrolyzer is slightly different. The hydrogen is passed through a membrane that strips it of any remaining oxygen or nitrogen, leaving pure hydrogen for the vehicle to burn. (That makes the electrolyzer a proton exchange membrane, or PEM, electrolyzer, a variant familiar to hydrogen fans.)

    ... The power demands of a vehicle engine are variable and can ramp up and down quickly, so the system needs to keep a bit of hydrogen stored as a buffer, in case it draws more than the electrolyzer can produce.

    Conventional hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (like the Toyota Mirai) store their hydrogen as a highly compressed gas, at about 8,000 psi. But compressed gas introduces all kinds of issues. It takes a lot of energy to compress the gas, it requires its own dedicated infrastructure, compressed-gas fueling stations are wildly expensive to build, and compressed hydrogen is, well, explosive, so every tank full of it is a potential bomb.

    Johnson wants nothing to do with that. So he’s taken another route. His system stores hydrogen, weakly bonded to metals as “hydrides,” in an inert, non-pressurized (~200 psi) liquid solution.
    yada yada yada: show
    The challenge with hydrides has been twofold: a) creating a bond weak enough to be broken without undue energy when the hydrogen needs to be released, and b) increasing the energy density of the resulting fluid. (To date, most hydride fluids have been less energy dense than compressed hydrogen, and far short of fossil fuels. They weigh too much for the energy they provide.)

    Johnson thinks he’s cracked both problems. He won’t reveal the details of the hydrides involved, but he’s got the power-to-weight ratio high enough to beat lithium-ion batteries (which are very heavy) and the hydride bond weak enough that it can be broken using only the redirected waste heat from the engine (no added heat or pressure required).

    What’s more, he’s been working with a team on nano-materials for hydrides and expects a “massive leapfrog” in power-to-weight in coming years; eventually, he says, he wants energy density competitive with fossil fuels.

    Efficient electrolysis plus efficient hydride storage means that Hy-Tech’s retrofit will produce a zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) with an average of 300 miles range, comparable to high-end electric vehicles but able to work in any existing vehicle. When I toured HyTech’s Redmond facility, Johnson drove me to lunch in a giant Ford Raptor pickup truck running on hydrogen.
    Image
    A Ford Raptor, running on pure hydrogen. HyTech Power

    There are two ways to “fill up” the vehicle. The slow way is to plug it in overnight, providing power for the electrolyzer to fill the tank. The fast way is to fill it up with hydride solution, which could be generated on site, either at home or a filling station, with nothing but an electrolyzer, some distilled water, and a tank.
    yada yada yada: show
    No infrastructure yet exists to support such fast refueling, but it isn’t like high-pressure compressed hydrogen, Johnson stresses. It’s not dangerous; it produces no toxic byproducts; it doesn’t require a bunch of government safety rules and enforcement; in theory, mom-and-pop gas stations could get a pump running pretty cheaply.

    Johnson’s somewhat utopian vision is that eventually every home and business will have an electrolyzer and a full tank of bonded hydrogen, which could be used either to generate electricity for the building (more on that in phase three) or to fuel hydrogen vehicles.

    Leaving behind internal combustion engines is the goal, Johnson says, but “it’s like quitting smoking — everybody wants to go cold turkey. It’s just not going to happen.” Retrofitting existing vehicles, for a fraction of the cost of a new zero-emission vehicle, will enable the company to begin reducing transportation emissions quickly.
    Read more: VOX
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by JPNZ »

The Man Without Fear wrote:How in God's name did you get a Kona? There's about three of them in the UK, such is Hyundai's inability to match battery supply with demand, as if this came as a surprise, the stupid sods.
There are currently 142 Kona's listed for sale on www.trademe.co.nz

Hyundai NZ sold 323 new ones in NZ in 2019
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Dark »

Apparently.... From what I have heard.... OK a dude on the radio World EV sales are actually dropping.

When it come to Tesla the company is a bit of a joke imho

It has been based on potential since day one and is creeping closer and closer to no credibility.

It will end up a big bursting of a balloon
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Zakar »

Dark wrote:Apparently.... From what I have heard.... OK a dude on the radio World EV sales are actually dropping.

When it come to Tesla the company is a bit of a joke imho

It has been based on potential since day one and is creeping closer and closer to no credibility.

It will end up a big bursting of a balloon
World electric vehicle sales were up >40% last year.

Maybe don't get your research from some bloke on the radio.
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Dark
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Dark »

The world would be a lesser place if we didn't get our info' from some bloke on the radio.

Second only to the dude down the pub whose sister works with the bloke who is definitely in the know.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by bok_viking »

Didn't Tesla just overtake Volkswagen in value this week? Not bad for a company going bust.
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by village »

bok_viking wrote:Didn't Tesla just overtake Volkswagen in value this week? Not bad for a company going bust.
You know stock market value and company solvency are not one and the same thing, right?
Tesla has been loss making every year of its 17 year existence. It's history of negative free cash flow is impressively long and large. It has been a value destroying machine for almost two decades. However there remain plenty of investors out there willing to keep refinancing Elon every time he dips back into the capital markets because they believe one day, sometime in the future, he's going to solve how to make his cars for an economically viable price and command a huge % of global auto market share. They are gambling that he does this before the established, profitable auto makers can catch up to Tesla's EV technology. Personally I think it more likely that Tesla eventually gets bought out by someone at a share price far below $572 but I've been wrong about that for years now and the market can stay irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent. The share price move on this since October has been utterly insane.

Checking the Tesla valuations again. Its now on 17x book value (compare that to Volkswagon is on 0.85x and highly profitable!). So for every $1 of Tesla stock you buy, you receive ownership of 6 cents of the company's net tangible assets. You might say 6% of your bet is effectively based on the present company and 94% is based on some sort of intangible asset (the expectation that Tesla will be a globally dominant, profitable brand in the future). It's the growthiest of growth stocks and an absolute poster child for the bull market of the past 10+ years. If we get a return towards normalised interest rates, then I suspect that will crush Tesla because all those analyst cashflow models that are presently discounting the company's distant profits years into the future at a minuscule discount rate will alter and the net present value will come down very fast. But it almost seems like we are never going to see central banks turn off the money taps until something forces them to do it.
dinsdale
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by dinsdale »

Zakar wrote:Is it really 10k psi? :shock:

Pressurised fuel works with lpg, but that's 320psi.
Yup, if you don't want the fuel to take up too much space. Most of the small number of Hydrogen cars on sale use Type IV (10,000PSI) fuel tanks. This Merc actually offers 2 different tanks - most just use the Type IV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes- ... en_storage

Hydrogen has good energy density per kilo - better than petrol - but worse density per cubic metre so you have to compress it like a bastard so it doesn't take up too much space.
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blindcider
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by blindcider »

Duff Paddy wrote:
terryfinch wrote:I reckon we are still 3-4 years from an electric car being a realistic option for me. Too much faff and not enough certainty on charging points. I do a lot of towing and electric cars don't really do that.
All depends on your mileage. Most people are still stuck in the mindset of petrol stations and topping up the fuel as you need it. That’s not how electric cars work - you charge them at home overnight. The public charging network is only for the odd longer drive that you might do a handful of times anyway, or when you get stuck having to do a longer journey than normal. Most people don’t do that much mileage.

In Ireland a big thing was that the ESB charging network was free until recently. This was actually a bad thing as it meant people hogged the free chargers and left their cars blocking them for entire days. A small charge has changed all of that. There are also some private operators like Ionity who are installing fast chargers at petrol stations
Charging at home is okay for people with driveways. Where I live in Bristol for most people an electric car would be ideal, Bristol is also a city where there are a lot of Victorian streets and houses with no driveways. If you have to park on the street then firstly there is no guarantee you can park outside your house and secondly putting a cable across the pavement is asking for damage, issues resulting from people tripping over, unplugging or whatever else passing teenagers/drunks might do.
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kiweez
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by kiweez »

The Sun God wrote:
The Man Without Fear wrote:Ah yes, blackouts. Which the National Grid have already said isn't going to happen.

Next zombie myth.

As to taking up non Tesla alternatives, the reason none of the Tesla killers have actually killed any Teslas is largely because they can't match up on range, battery density charging network and most importantly, supply. Whilst the Ipace accounted for 10% of all of Jaguar's output last year, which is to be celebrated in its own right, it was still just shy of a tenth of the vehicles Tesla delivered in Q4 2019 alone.

And that's a shame.

Jag are also bringing out an electric XJ.
I really am trying to get this whole EV trend and indeed I own one but as someone who loves the XJ and has owned many and still owns one, this makes me sad.
I am sure it will be a magnificent creature but to me the XJ is all about how the V8 becomes the driving experience ....even the V6 versions were a joy to drive.
I think you’ll find the improvements in handling (due to the battery weight improving the COG) and instant torque will compensate.

Just plug in your iphone with the “broom broom” noises and you’ll be sweet!
bimboman
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by bimboman »

ticketlessinseattle
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by ticketlessinseattle »

well, the stock price is going through the roof....was kicking myself I hadn't jumped on board a few months ago, bought about 3 weeks ago and its up 55%,,,,is it the 20's bitcoin ? signed, Globby
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tiddle
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by tiddle »

village wrote:
bok_viking wrote:Didn't Tesla just overtake Volkswagen in value this week? Not bad for a company going bust.
You know stock market value and company solvency are not one and the same thing, right?
Tesla has been loss making every year of its 17 year existence. It's history of negative free cash flow is impressively long and large. It has been a value destroying machine for almost two decades. However there remain plenty of investors out there willing to keep refinancing Elon every time he dips back into the capital markets because they believe one day, sometime in the future, he's going to solve how to make his cars for an economically viable price and command a huge % of global auto market share. They are gambling that he does this before the established, profitable auto makers can catch up to Tesla's EV technology. Personally I think it more likely that Tesla eventually gets bought out by someone at a share price far below $572 but I've been wrong about that for years now and the market can stay irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent. The share price move on this since October has been utterly insane.

Checking the Tesla valuations again. Its now on 17x book value (compare that to Volkswagon is on 0.85x and highly profitable!). So for every $1 of Tesla stock you buy, you receive ownership of 6 cents of the company's net tangible assets. You might say 6% of your bet is effectively based on the present company and 94% is based on some sort of intangible asset (the expectation that Tesla will be a globally dominant, profitable brand in the future). It's the growthiest of growth stocks and an absolute poster child for the bull market of the past 10+ years. If we get a return towards normalised interest rates, then I suspect that will crush Tesla because all those analyst cashflow models that are presently discounting the company's distant profits years into the future at a minuscule discount rate will alter and the net present value will come down very fast. But it almost seems like we are never going to see central banks turn off the money taps until something forces them to do it.
wow, that's ridiculous.

good post.
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Lacrobat
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by Lacrobat »

Image
ticketlessinseattle
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Re: IS TESLA GOING BUST

Post by ticketlessinseattle »

basically valued like a unicorn tech company with none of this multiple of EBITDA silliness
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