Bellicose Boris bonkers Brexit bonanza....

All things Rugby
User avatar
A5D5E5
Posts: 11472
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by A5D5E5 »

It seems to me that Bercow is judging the likelihood of Parliament allowing a no deal (given the vote last week) is very low and so is forcing a choice between long extension or softer Brexit or no deal.

I think (and hope) that the ERG will come to regret refusing May's deal. You don't know what you've got 'till its gone as somebody once sang*.


*My daughter last night as it happens. Good taste for a 5 year old.
User avatar
Chuckles1188
Posts: 40610
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:54 am
Location: Joint No. 3 to Cyprus

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

c69 wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
c69 wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
c69 wrote:As much as you and I may dislike Labour they certainly have a position.
I am sure they want to leave but stay in a customs union.
That you think they have a position don't make it so. They want the same unicorn Brexit the Tories do - all the benefits, none of the downsides. It's as ephemeral and impossible as anything the Tories have ever advocated
They clearly have a position, I have never said it is a workable plausibke position. It is however a position, and just because you don't deem it to have any merit does not mean it is not their position.
Now stick that supercilious attitude up your arse.
Okay.

You are wrong.

Is that better?
It would have been better for you to have stated you disagreed with my position on Labour's position tbh.
I did
tc27
Posts: 4841
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tc27 »

Rugby2023 wrote:
tc27 wrote:Maybe a change to the political declaration rather than the WA will suffice to allow the motion to be bought again? In that case it may be possible IMO.

Bercow is effectively the most powerful person in the UK at the moment.....
So is she asking for extension on Thursday or changes to P/D? Can she do both?

Extension first...would be needed if MV3 passed anyway.
Rugby2023
Posts: 12290
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:05 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

sturginho wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
tc27 wrote:On the other hand it appears its now a binary choice of extension or no deal so the likelihood of no deal has in fact increased.
If it's looking like no-deal, Bercow will accept cosmetic changes.
In his statement he did mention the fact that the second vote came with a promise to move a vote on no-deal and a vote on an extension. So I wonder if MV3 came with a promise to hold a second referendum, whether that would pass Bercow's test
May would be finished as PM, Party wouldn't swallow it.
User avatar
sturginho
Posts: 2382
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 9:27 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sturginho »

tc27 wrote:
sturginho wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
tc27 wrote:On the other hand it appears its now a binary choice of extension or no deal so the likelihood of no deal has in fact increased.
If it's looking like no-deal, Bercow will accept cosmetic changes.
In his statement he did mention the fact that the second vote came with a promise to move a vote on no-deal and a vote on an extension. So I wonder if MV3 came with a promise to hold a second referendum, whether that would pass Bercow's test

Yes and I would be shocked...shocked I tell you if this happened.
It's not likely granted
tc27
Posts: 4841
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tc27 »

I think the most likely outcome is an another referendum now linked to MV3 passing and an extension...calling it.

May is finished as PM...irony is it wont be an ERG'er who will succeed her.
Last edited by tc27 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Rugby2023
Posts: 12290
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:05 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

tc27 wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
tc27 wrote:Maybe a change to the political declaration rather than the WA will suffice to allow the motion to be bought again? In that case it may be possible IMO.

Bercow is effectively the most powerful person in the UK at the moment.....
So is she asking for extension on Thursday or changes to P/D? Can she do both?
Extension first...would be needed if MV3 passed anyway.
Duration is key then though.
A short extension, and ERG Brexiteers aren't going to be scared into voting for MV3.
A long extension, and they might be, but it comes at personal risk to May who probably couldn't continue.

EU currently minded to offer only long extension.
Last edited by Rugby2023 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
A5D5E5
Posts: 11472
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by A5D5E5 »

Rugby2023 wrote:
sturginho wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
tc27 wrote:On the other hand it appears its now a binary choice of extension or no deal so the likelihood of no deal has in fact increased.
If it's looking like no-deal, Bercow will accept cosmetic changes.
In his statement he did mention the fact that the second vote came with a promise to move a vote on no-deal and a vote on an extension. So I wonder if MV3 came with a promise to hold a second referendum, whether that would pass Bercow's test
May would be finished as PM, Party wouldn't swallow it.
May has no future as PM anyway. The Tories know that they have to ditch her before the next election and for all their (many and varied) failings, they are utterly ruthless in getting rid of leaders once they have served their purpose - in a way that Labour never have been.
Rugby2023
Posts: 12290
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:05 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

A5D5E5 wrote:May has no future as PM anyway. The Tories know that they have to ditch her before the next election and for all their (many and varied) failings, they are utterly ruthless in getting rid of leaders once they have served their purpose - in a way that Labour never have been.
We know that, but as we've seen when it comes to staying as PM, May is nuts. If she pledged to resign, she could have got her deal through, but she refused to sacrifice.
User avatar
Chuckles1188
Posts: 40610
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:54 am
Location: Joint No. 3 to Cyprus

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

A5D5E5 wrote: May has no future as PM anyway. The Tories know that they have to ditch her before the next election and for all their (many and varied) failings, they are utterly ruthless in getting rid of leaders once they have served their purpose - in a way that Labour never have been.
She's got a grace period of just under a year with the failed party no confidence bid. They'd best hope the ERG don't decide it's kamikaze time
Rugby2023
Posts: 12290
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:05 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
A5D5E5 wrote: May has no future as PM anyway. The Tories know that they have to ditch her before the next election and for all their (many and varied) failings, they are utterly ruthless in getting rid of leaders once they have served their purpose - in a way that Labour never have been.
She's got a grace period of just under a year with the failed party no confidence bid. They'd best hope the ERG don't decide it's kamikaze time
In theory but the 1922 Committee ("men in grey") can ask her to go, Cabinet can also ask her to stand down.
tc27 wrote:I think the most likely outcome is an another referendum now linked to MV3 passing and an extension...calling it.

May is finished as PM...irony is it wont be an ERG'er who will succeed her.
Probably right but worth remembering all they have to do is get one candidate to the final two.
Last edited by Rugby2023 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Mahoney
Posts: 4097
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Mahoney »

Is it staying as PM? I'm still quite taken with this theory that she's a Captain Ahab style monomaniac about delivering whatever it is she has been tasked with delivering. Cameron asked her to reduce immigration below 100,000. She bust a gut but couldn't do it. In Brexit, the country* asked her to leave the EU. Bang! Opportunity to deliver Brexit AND the immigration pledge. She just... wants... to... tick... that... box... on... the... todo... list.

* yes, yes... don't bother
tc27
Posts: 4841
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tc27 »

Some EU watchers think an extension will be refused - so Parliament will have to decide between no deal or revocation.


Absolutely extraordinary moment of choice for MPs - I cannot see them voting for no deal which is a comfort but who knows what the fall out will be....

A general election at the very least would have to follow IMO.
Last edited by tc27 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
A5D5E5
Posts: 11472
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by A5D5E5 »

Chuckles1188 wrote:
A5D5E5 wrote: May has no future as PM anyway. The Tories know that they have to ditch her before the next election and for all their (many and varied) failings, they are utterly ruthless in getting rid of leaders once they have served their purpose - in a way that Labour never have been.
She's got a grace period of just under a year with the failed party no confidence bid. They'd best hope the ERG don't decide it's kamikaze time
No way the ERG would use a horrible Japanese term. They would prefer something which invoked the Greatness of our history. Perhaps the Charge of the Light Brigade would be more appropriate.
User avatar
Petej
Posts: 4847
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Monmouthshire

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Petej »

Loathsome accusing the speaker of not showing dignity and respect to MPs. :lol:

Interesting that it looked like may was going to pull this week's vote at any rate.
User avatar
sturginho
Posts: 2382
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 9:27 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sturginho »

tc27 wrote:Some EU watchers think an extension will be refused - so Parliament will have to decide between no deal or revocation.


Absolutely extraordinary moment of choice for MPs - I cannot see them voting for no deal which is a comfort but who knows what the fall out will be....

A general election at the very least would have to follow IMO.
Revocation of A.50 followed by GE and Tory party being wiped off the map.......


a man can dream can't he?
User avatar
Chuckles1188
Posts: 40610
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:54 am
Location: Joint No. 3 to Cyprus

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Chuckles1188 »

Rugby2023 wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
A5D5E5 wrote: May has no future as PM anyway. The Tories know that they have to ditch her before the next election and for all their (many and varied) failings, they are utterly ruthless in getting rid of leaders once they have served their purpose - in a way that Labour never have been.
She's got a grace period of just under a year with the failed party no confidence bid. They'd best hope the ERG don't decide it's kamikaze time
In theory but the 1922 Committee ("men in grey") can ask her to go, Cabinet can also ask her to stand down.
Both true, but, as I understand it, their ability to force her to go if she refuses is now nil
tc27
Posts: 4841
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by tc27 »

sturginho wrote:
tc27 wrote:Some EU watchers think an extension will be refused - so Parliament will have to decide between no deal or revocation.


Absolutely extraordinary moment of choice for MPs - I cannot see them voting for no deal which is a comfort but who knows what the fall out will be....

A general election at the very least would have to follow IMO.
Revocation of A.50 followed by GE and Tory party being wiped off the map.......


a man can dream can't he?
Corbyn and his bunch of clowns in Government sounds worse than no deal - though it really is Hobsons choice IMO.
User avatar
sturginho
Posts: 2382
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 9:27 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sturginho »

Petej wrote:Loathsome accusing the speaker of not showing dignity and respect to MPs. :lol:

Interesting that it looked like may was going to pull this week's vote at any rate.
Bit of a slanging match between the two of them:
Bercow wrote:I hope the Government would feel that respect for procedure does matter. I note that as [SNP shadow Commons leader MP Pete Wishart] asks his question and I respond, the leader of the house is playing with her electronic device, and so is the deputy chief whip. I didn’t include him in the category of very senior people in the House but that’s a debatable proposition I readily grant.
User avatar
Petej
Posts: 4847
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Monmouthshire

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Petej »

sturginho wrote:
tc27 wrote:Some EU watchers think an extension will be refused - so Parliament will have to decide between no deal or revocation.


Absolutely extraordinary moment of choice for MPs - I cannot see them voting for no deal which is a comfort but who knows what the fall out will be....

A general election at the very least would have to follow IMO.
Revocation of A.50 followed by GE and Tory party being wiped off the map.......


a man can dream can't he?
Parliament forcing may to revoke article 50 would be great.
User avatar
sturginho
Posts: 2382
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 9:27 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sturginho »

tc27 wrote:
sturginho wrote:
tc27 wrote:Some EU watchers think an extension will be refused - so Parliament will have to decide between no deal or revocation.


Absolutely extraordinary moment of choice for MPs - I cannot see them voting for no deal which is a comfort but who knows what the fall out will be....

A general election at the very least would have to follow IMO.
Revocation of A.50 followed by GE and Tory party being wiped off the map.......


a man can dream can't he?
Corbyn and his bunch of clowns in Government sounds worse than no deal - though it really is Hobsons choice IMO.
he's an utter clown and hopefully the labour party wake up to this fact soon
User avatar
Mahoney
Posts: 4097
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Mahoney »

This haunts her waking dreams:
Image
Last edited by Mahoney on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
SaintK
Posts: 6306
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: 'ertfordshire

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by SaintK »

Petej wrote:Loathsome accusing the speaker of not showing dignity and respect to MPs. :lol:

Interesting that it looked like may was going to pull this week's vote at any rate.
That was in response to what he said to her
John Bercow is on particularly waspish form at the moment. This is what he said about Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, a moment ago.

I hope the Government would feel that respect for procedure does matter. I note that as [SNP shadow Commons leader MP Pete Wishart] asks his question and I respond, the leader of the house is playing with her electronic device, and so is the deputy chief whip. I didn’t include him in the category of very senior people in the House but that’s a debatable proposition I readily grant.
User avatar
sturginho
Posts: 2382
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2015 9:27 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by sturginho »

Mahoney wrote:This haunts her waking dreams:
Image
:lol: :lol:
User avatar
Petej
Posts: 4847
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Monmouthshire

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Petej »

sturginho wrote:
tc27 wrote:
sturginho wrote:
tc27 wrote:Some EU watchers think an extension will be refused - so Parliament will have to decide between no deal or revocation.


Absolutely extraordinary moment of choice for MPs - I cannot see them voting for no deal which is a comfort but who knows what the fall out will be....

A general election at the very least would have to follow IMO.
Revocation of A.50 followed by GE and Tory party being wiped off the map.......


a man can dream can't he?
Corbyn and his bunch of clowns in Government sounds worse than no deal - though it really is Hobsons choice IMO.
he's an utter clown and hopefully the labour party wake up to this fact soon
With any luck both main parties lose loads of seats and we can look at some much needed reform in the UK.
Petrus
Posts: 697
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Petrus »

Still not understand anything. Will be back on 29th. At what time that day you decide something ?
User avatar
P in VG
Posts: 2911
Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:22 pm
Location: Gogledd Cymru

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by P in VG »

Petej wrote: With any luck both main parties lose loads of seats and we can look at some much needed reform in the UK.
I look forward to the LEAVE MEANS LEAVE Party debating Brexit with The Movement for Peoples Vote Party... :((
C69
Posts: 41305
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:44 pm
Location: For Wales the Welsh and aproppriate pronouns

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by C69 »

Judean Peoples front get my vote
User avatar
fishfoodie
Posts: 5797
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by fishfoodie »

tc27 wrote:Some EU watchers think an extension will be refused - so Parliament will have to decide between no deal or revocation.

Absolutely extraordinary moment of choice for MPs - I cannot see them voting for no deal which is a comfort but who knows what the fall out will be....

A general election at the very least would have to follow IMO.
So TM is going to Europe on Thursday, to ask for an extension; but can't tell them, why, or what; because now she has to make a material change to the WA; that the EU, has told her repeatedly, won't be reopened; & her own AG, won't agree to the last interpretation that the EU gave her; that she told them would be enough for MV2 to Pass ?

Did I miss anything in this shitshow ?
User avatar
Petej
Posts: 4847
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Monmouthshire

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Petej »

P in VG wrote:
Petej wrote: With any luck both main parties lose loads of seats and we can look at some much needed reform in the UK.
I look forward to the LEAVE MEANS LEAVE Party debating Brexit with The Movement for Peoples Vote Party... :((
Real Brexit Has Never Been Tried vs Real Socialism Has Never Been Tried Election.
bimboman
Posts: 70454
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by bimboman »

Well I'll have a guess at what's next; EU refuse any changes (obvs) , they refuse an extension (as no reason given), house panics ....


Then it's either a "people's vote" to get the extension, or even better it gets run down and the house votes to revoke article 50 followed by a general election.
bimboman
Posts: 70454
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by bimboman »

Senior Tory MP: “The House is on fire and John Bercow has just locked all the exits - the logic of his statement is that he’s blocked the deal, he’s blocked no deal and he’s blocked a second referendum as the house has rejected all of them”

But not "revoke article 50"


......
Rugby2023
Posts: 12290
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:05 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

bimboman wrote:Well I'll have a guess at what's next; EU refuse any changes (obvs) , they refuse an extension (as no reason given), house panics ....


Then it's either a "people's vote" to get the extension, or even better it gets run down and the house votes to revoke article 50 followed by a general election.
I don't think they can do that, against their rules afaik. The HoC would be nervous revoking A50 then going into a GE, especially those sitting in Leave seats.
bimboman
Posts: 70454
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by bimboman »

Rugby2023 wrote:
bimboman wrote:Well I'll have a guess at what's next; EU refuse any changes (obvs) , they refuse an extension (as no reason given), house panics ....


Then it's either a "people's vote" to get the extension, or even better it gets run down and the house votes to revoke article 50 followed by a general election.
I don't think they can do that, against their rules afaik. The HoC would be nervous revoking A50 then going into a GE, especially those sitting in Leave seats.

Then what's allowed ?
Rugby2023
Posts: 12290
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:05 pm

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Rugby2023 »

bimboman wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
bimboman wrote:Well I'll have a guess at what's next; EU refuse any changes (obvs) , they refuse an extension (as no reason given), house panics ....


Then it's either a "people's vote" to get the extension, or even better it gets run down and the house votes to revoke article 50 followed by a general election.
I don't think they can do that, against their rules afaik. The HoC would be nervous revoking A50 then going into a GE, especially those sitting in Leave seats.
Then what's allowed ?
There was a leaked EU document to ambassadors which generally stated that under A50 any condition attached to an extension can't go beyond what's normally expected of a withdrawing member state. You'd imagine commitment to a new referendum would overstep if not directly contradict that requirement.
Spoiler: show
Image
User avatar
Druid
Posts: 899
Joined: Fri Jul 17, 2015 4:00 pm
Location: Over by there.

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Druid »

We are all going to a "special place in hell" (In a hand cart)
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 28878
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Chickenrunning...

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Sandstorm »

Revoke A50 and a GE is the best option for everyone except the 650 MP’s who might be asked to vote for it next week.

We’re boned
User avatar
Anonymous 1
Posts: 41917
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:15 pm
Location: Planet Rock

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by Anonymous 1 »

A5D5E5 wrote: May has no future as PM anyway. The Tories know that they have to ditch her before the next election and for all their (many and varied) failings, they are utterly ruthless in getting rid of leaders once they have served their purpose - in a way that Labour never have been.
She has said that she will stand down as leader before the next election. She has also told so many bare faced lies it's had to believe a word she says.
User avatar
message #2527204
Posts: 14048
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Ultracrepidaria

Re: Nothing has changed. May's Brexit Balls up...

Post by message #2527204 »

sturginho wrote:
tc27 wrote:
sturginho wrote:
tc27 wrote:Some EU watchers think an extension will be refused - so Parliament will have to decide between no deal or revocation.


Absolutely extraordinary moment of choice for MPs - I cannot see them voting for no deal which is a comfort but who knows what the fall out will be....

A general election at the very least would have to follow IMO.
Revocation of A.50 followed by GE and Tory party being wiped off the map.......


a man can dream can't he?
Corbyn and his bunch of clowns in Government sounds worse than no deal - though it really is Hobsons choice IMO.
he's an utter clown and hopefully the labour party wake up to this fact soon
The Labour party...or what's left of it, do know. But our lovely people - the same people that voted for Brexit- seem to think the sun shines out of his shrivelled, revolutionary arse.
Locked