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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:40 pm 
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Waratah wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
It did occur to me that there is a straightforward explanation for Epstein coming off suicide watch: he wasn't at all suicidal. The psychologists, the medical professionals, the prison management, and Epstein's lawyers all believed he wasn't a risk because he wasn't.

This is not a strong argument. Other than being perfectly circular it ignores the obvious suicide risk. A man who had everything now ruined, universally reviled, facing life in prison as a child sex trafficker.
Quote:
...we now hear his legal team were working on what could have been a perfectly serviceable defence - double jeopardy - I really can't see what incentive he had to call time on everything without first sticking around to see if it worked out...

My 10 second Wiki refresher says double jeopardy 'prevents an accused being tried again on the same charges and on the same facts, following a valid acquittal or conviction.' Surely the known facts and charges are quite different and Epstein knew he would die in prison either sooner or later.

Fishoodie had it right earlier for mine.
Quote:
Occams razor says yes [committed suicide].

1) Didn't he have enough reason to do so ?
2) Hadn't he already demonstrated a desire, & an ability to do so ?
3) If his prior, failed, attempt wasn't authentic; why didn't his Lawyers scream bloody murder & get him moved ??
...and most importantly
4) If you really wanted to murder someone; would you pick a Federal facility, where you have to pass thru a dozen levels of security, & are background checked before being admitted, & are under CC surveillance every step of the way ?

He'd dodged the bullet before, thru his influence, & now it must have been obvious to him that he was going to spend the rest of his life in prison, & in, 'special units'. He was fucked, & he he knew damn well he was.

All of this remains true. So far as an obvious suicide risk being 'allowed' to hang himself, I'm reminded of the adage, 'never attribute to malice which can be explained by incompetence'.

Remove all unnecessary assumptions and he most likely killed himself, but you wouldn't rule much out. It's got everything. Conspiracy gold. One minute you're ridiculing QAnon for certifiable theories of international pedophile rings among the global elite, and the next...

Irresistible.


Couple of points. More along the lines of Devil's advocate than rebuttal, seeing as we're all grasping at shadows here.

1 - His reputation was ruined and his name reviled since the mid 2000s when he was charged in Florida. The Lolita Express was a pretty hideous byword for the man that everyone - including all of us - had heard of. This was a situation he had been living with for over a decade, without any attempts at suicide. This was a man who had no problem living under a cloud, as long as he was left at liberty to get on with his life.

2 - He had no idea what kind of sentence he was going to receive, or even if he would get one at all. We've all seen trials like OJ's. Justice is relatively straightforward to buy in the US provided you have the pockets, which he did. A coterie of top end lawyers and anything's possible. It's also the case that the kerfuffle he had in Florida had been significantly diminished by whatever sort of bargain he managed to strike there. There's no reason to suppose he wouldn't attempt the same MO a second time. In short, on the surface, he had everything to play for. If he was going to top himself, it would make far more sense for it to happen after a conviction and sentence, not before. Not unless you're one of life's natural pessimists. Everything we know of the man points in the opposite direction.

3 - On the issue of double-jeopardy. Whether we think it might fly or not as a defence, there's no doubt that's where his lawyers were going. And, notwithstanding your accurate reading of the definitions, I doubt they were second raters granted to him by the state who decided to take a punt on a fanciful longshot. They were almost certainly top performers with a realistic strategy.

4 - I get where Fishoodie is coming from. But a) we actually don't know yet that he tried to kill himself before. There are plenty of rumours that he was instead attacked. Neither has received official corroboration yet. b) His lawyers - people we're told he was spending up to 12 hours a day with - were amongst those advocating he not be subject to the intrusiveness of a suicide watch. And c) whilst no one would choose to off a problem personality in a federal prison when they could do so much more easily outside, it may well be the case that no one expected him to end up there in such short order, and in circumstances that looked so potentially permanent. The fact that he did - as he stepped off a plane - would, one imagines, have placed a rather large cat amongst the pigeons. If there actually were people worried that he might be able to incriminate them, it instantly became incumbent on them to get to him before he walked into a courtroom, irrespective of where he was being held.

5 - Finally, the principle of Occam's Razor cuts both ways. With so many coincidences and peculiarities surrounding events that night in the prison and in the time leading up to it, it's not over the top to ask the question: at what point do we entertain the idea that all these chance accidents of happenstance were perhaps not so coincidental. This is not at all unreasonable. In fact, it would be, I'd imagine, the starting point for anyone who was given the task of getting to the bottom of the affair.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:42 pm 
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Santa wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Just to come back to this issue for a moment. Here are some examples of the work of Aussie Artist Patricia Piccinini, described as a protege of Tony Podesta's in an interview the Guardian conducted with him when he was riding the wave of success in the mid noughties. To be fair, there is serious technical ability on display here. But no one can look at this stuff and think it represents the tastes of people with a healthy inner life.

NSFW. You have been warned.
Spoiler: show
ImageImageImageImageImage


Great name for a great artist. I love her collaborations with sculptor Stacy Kneegrow.


Hard to think of a more appropriate one, isn't it. I wonder did she choose it as her artistic nom de plume.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:31 pm 
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hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Waratah wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
It did occur to me that there is a straightforward explanation for Epstein coming off suicide watch: he wasn't at all suicidal. The psychologists, the medical professionals, the prison management, and Epstein's lawyers all believed he wasn't a risk because he wasn't.

This is not a strong argument. Other than being perfectly circular it ignores the obvious suicide risk. A man who had everything now ruined, universally reviled, facing life in prison as a child sex trafficker.
Quote:
...we now hear his legal team were working on what could have been a perfectly serviceable defence - double jeopardy - I really can't see what incentive he had to call time on everything without first sticking around to see if it worked out...

My 10 second Wiki refresher says double jeopardy 'prevents an accused being tried again on the same charges and on the same facts, following a valid acquittal or conviction.' Surely the known facts and charges are quite different and Epstein knew he would die in prison either sooner or later.

Fishoodie had it right earlier for mine.
Quote:
Occams razor says yes [committed suicide].

1) Didn't he have enough reason to do so ?
2) Hadn't he already demonstrated a desire, & an ability to do so ?
3) If his prior, failed, attempt wasn't authentic; why didn't his Lawyers scream bloody murder & get him moved ??
...and most importantly
4) If you really wanted to murder someone; would you pick a Federal facility, where you have to pass thru a dozen levels of security, & are background checked before being admitted, & are under CC surveillance every step of the way ?

He'd dodged the bullet before, thru his influence, & now it must have been obvious to him that he was going to spend the rest of his life in prison, & in, 'special units'. He was fucked, & he he knew damn well he was.

All of this remains true. So far as an obvious suicide risk being 'allowed' to hang himself, I'm reminded of the adage, 'never attribute to malice which can be explained by incompetence'.

Remove all unnecessary assumptions and he most likely killed himself, but you wouldn't rule much out. It's got everything. Conspiracy gold. One minute you're ridiculing QAnon for certifiable theories of international pedophile rings among the global elite, and the next...

Irresistible.


Couple of points. More along the lines of Devil's advocate than rebuttal, seeing as we're all grasping at shadows here.

1 - His reputation was ruined and his name reviled since the mid 2000s when he was charged in Florida. The Lolita Express was a pretty hideous byword for the man that everyone - including all of us - had heard of. This was a situation he had been living with for over a decade, without any attempts at suicide. This was a man who had no problem living under a cloud, as long as he was left at liberty to get on with his life.

2 - He had no idea what kind of sentence he was going to receive, or even if he would get one at all. We've all seen trials like OJ's. Justice is relatively straightforward to buy in the US provided you have the pockets, which he did. A coterie of top end lawyers and anything's possible. It's also the case that the kerfuffle he had in Florida had been significantly diminished by whatever sort of bargain he managed to strike there. There's no reason to suppose he wouldn't attempt the same MO a second time. In short, on the surface, he had everything to play for. If he was going to top himself, it would make far more sense for it to happen after a conviction and sentence, not before. Not unless you're one of life's natural pessimists. Everything we know of the man points in the opposite direction.

3 - On the issue of double-jeopardy. Whether we think it might fly or not as a defence, there's no doubt that's where his lawyers were going. And, notwithstanding your accurate reading of the definitions, I doubt they were second raters granted to him by the state who decided to take a punt on a fanciful longshot. They were almost certainly top performers with a realistic strategy.

4 - I get where Fishoodie is coming from. But a) we actually don't know yet that he tried to kill himself before. There are plenty of rumours that he was instead attacked. Neither has received official corroboration yet. b) His lawyers - people we're told he was spending up to 12 hours a day with - were amongst those advocating he not be subject to the intrusiveness of a suicide watch. And c) whilst no one would choose to off a problem personality in a federal prison when they could do so much more easily outside, it may well be the case that no one expected him to end up there in such short order, and in circumstances that looked so potentially permanent. The fact that he did - as he stepped off a plane - would, one imagines, have placed a rather large cat amongst the pigeons. If there actually were people worried that he might be able to incriminate them, it instantly became incumbent on them to get to him before he walked into a courtroom, irrespective of where he was being held.

5 - Finally, the principle of Occam's Razor cuts both ways. With so many coincidences and peculiarities surrounding events that night in the prison and in the time leading up to it, it's not over the top to ask the question: at what point do we entertain the idea that all these chance accidents of happenstance were perhaps not so coincidental. This is not at all unreasonable. In fact, it would be, I'd imagine, the starting point for anyone who was given the task of getting to the bottom of the affair.


Stuff like the O.J. trial gets trotted out. The O.J. trial was as much about whites versus blacks as it was whether O.J. really killed 2 people. Johnnie Cochran's M.O. was he represented the oppressed black man in a white system. If he won, it's not his fault the prosecution did a bad job. If he lost, that shows how much of a white system it was to sentence in his opinion an innocent man. Regardless of result, he was a hero to the people he wanted to represent.

What lawyer wanted to be defined as the defense attorney saving Jeffrey Epstein from justice in 2019? Someone will because lawyers out there want money and you have the mob lawyer people, but the defense is not going to be of the "I'm righting injustice here" kind. Plus you're scarred with that. Best case for a defense attorney would be wave around proof of higher more important people's involvement and hope for a plea deal.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:35 pm 
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Seneca of the Night wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
Not that the Clintons had anything to do with this, they obviously could not and did not, but it was fascinating seeing the photo of Maxwell’s daughter at Chelsea Clinton’s wedding. It was an incredible gathering of the lizard people in fact. Mossad couldn’t bug the Oval Office but they had Monica Lewinsky’s apartment bugged and tried to use that to leverage Clinton. Now it turns out that Ghislaine Maxwell is/was almost certainly a Mossad agent...


Lewinsky was probably a Mossad honey trap in hindsight.


Doubtful. Clinton had plenty of women, Lewinsky was just the most famous.

Lives in the UK now.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:16 pm 
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Seneca of the Night wrote:


Just too f**king bizarre

Quote:
Maxwell was reading a book called “The Book of Honor: The Secret Lives and Deaths of CIA Operatives”


So she’s trolling


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:07 pm 
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Spoiler: show
Flyin Ryan wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Couple of points. More along the lines of Devil's advocate than rebuttal, seeing as we're all grasping at shadows here.

1 - His reputation was ruined and his name reviled since the mid 2000s when he was charged in Florida. The Lolita Express was a pretty hideous byword for the man that everyone - including all of us - had heard of. This was a situation he had been living with for over a decade, without any attempts at suicide. This was a man who had no problem living under a cloud, as long as he was left at liberty to get on with his life.

2 - He had no idea what kind of sentence he was going to receive, or even if he would get one at all. We've all seen trials like OJ's. Justice is relatively straightforward to buy in the US provided you have the pockets, which he did. A coterie of top end lawyers and anything's possible. It's also the case that the kerfuffle he had in Florida had been significantly diminished by whatever sort of bargain he managed to strike there. There's no reason to suppose he wouldn't attempt the same MO a second time. In short, on the surface, he had everything to play for. If he was going to top himself, it would make far more sense for it to happen after a conviction and sentence, not before. Not unless you're one of life's natural pessimists. Everything we know of the man points in the opposite direction.

3 - On the issue of double-jeopardy. Whether we think it might fly or not as a defence, there's no doubt that's where his lawyers were going. And, notwithstanding your accurate reading of the definitions, I doubt they were second raters granted to him by the state who decided to take a punt on a fanciful longshot. They were almost certainly top performers with a realistic strategy.

4 - I get where Fishoodie is coming from. But a) we actually don't know yet that he tried to kill himself before. There are plenty of rumours that he was instead attacked. Neither has received official corroboration yet. b) His lawyers - people we're told he was spending up to 12 hours a day with - were amongst those advocating he not be subject to the intrusiveness of a suicide watch. And c) whilst no one would choose to off a problem personality in a federal prison when they could do so much more easily outside, it may well be the case that no one expected him to end up there in such short order, and in circumstances that looked so potentially permanent. The fact that he did - as he stepped off a plane - would, one imagines, have placed a rather large cat amongst the pigeons. If there actually were people worried that he might be able to incriminate them, it instantly became incumbent on them to get to him before he walked into a courtroom, irrespective of where he was being held.

5 - Finally, the principle of Occam's Razor cuts both ways. With so many coincidences and peculiarities surrounding events that night in the prison and in the time leading up to it, it's not over the top to ask the question: at what point do we entertain the idea that all these chance accidents of happenstance were perhaps not so coincidental. This is not at all unreasonable. In fact, it would be, I'd imagine, the starting point for anyone who was given the task of getting to the bottom of the affair.


Stuff like the O.J. trial gets trotted out. The O.J. trial was as much about whites versus blacks as it was whether O.J. really killed 2 people. Johnnie Cochran's M.O. was he represented the oppressed black man in a white system. If he won, it's not his fault the prosecution did a bad job. If he lost, that shows how much of a white system it was to sentence in his opinion an innocent man. Regardless of result, he was a hero to the people he wanted to represent.

What lawyer wanted to be defined as the defense attorney saving Jeffrey Epstein from justice in 2019? Someone will because lawyers out there want money and you have the mob lawyer people, but the defense is not going to be of the "I'm righting injustice here" kind. Plus you're scarred with that. Best case for a defense attorney would be wave around proof of higher more important people's involvement and hope for a plea deal.


Just to be clear, I'm not rehashing the ins and outs of OJ's trial to make any point apropos him, or Johnnie Cochran, or the racial fault lines that undergirded the trial. I'm simply pointing out that in the US even the most high profile case - one which looks 100% a foregone conclusion - can turn on its head if the defence know what they're up to and the dice fall the right way. The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

I respectfully disagree with the picture you present of lawyers preferring not to defend the impossible. That may be the case for many of them. But those with some ambition will know that there is a very real prize on offer for successfully defending the indefensible. It can cement a reputation as a top defence attorney and by extension open all sorts of professional doors that were previously closed. A risky strategy, to be sure. But the rewards are high enough to entice plenty of bright sparks to step forward.

I agree with you that ultimately a plea deal would seem to have been the logical route for Epstein. Something that would have made him a blabbering liability for others. All the more reason to shut him up if you had the wherewithal to do so.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:11 am 
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hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:27 am 
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hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Santa wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Just to come back to this issue for a moment. Here are some examples of the work of Aussie Artist Patricia Piccinini, described as a protege of Tony Podesta's in an interview the Guardian conducted with him when he was riding the wave of success in the mid noughties. To be fair, there is serious technical ability on display here. But no one can look at this stuff and think it represents the tastes of people with a healthy inner life.

NSFW. You have been warned.
Spoiler: show
ImageImageImageImageImage


Great name for a great artist. I love her collaborations with sculptor Stacy Kneegrow.


Hard to think of a more appropriate one, isn't it. I wonder did she choose it as her artistic nom de plume.


I saw a doco on her last Sunday, it's her real name...


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:29 am 
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hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Santa wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Just to come back to this issue for a moment. Here are some examples of the work of Aussie Artist Patricia Piccinini, described as a protege of Tony Podesta's in an interview the Guardian conducted with him when he was riding the wave of success in the mid noughties. To be fair, there is serious technical ability on display here. But no one can look at this stuff and think it represents the tastes of people with a healthy inner life.

NSFW. You have been warned.
Spoiler: show
ImageImageImageImageImage


Great name for a great artist. I love her collaborations with sculptor Stacy Kneegrow.


Hard to think of a more appropriate one, isn't it. I wonder did she choose it as her artistic nom de plume.


Her lifesize nudes are eerily realistic. I was at her Canberra exhibition and you expected them to move.

Creepily realistic even down to the genitalia

:shock:


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:50 am 
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Mick Mannock wrote:
Bokkom wrote:
His Royal Highness.
By Jupiter, in this day and age, do we really need that sort of shit?


Somewhat less archaic than Jupiter

;)


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:51 am 
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Good to see Waratah is back.
Care to share your ideas re the Mueller report with us?


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:53 am 
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Bokkom wrote:
Good to see Waratah is back.
Care to share your ideas re the Mueller report with us?


Any day now...

Aaaaany day now...


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:09 am 
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derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


They're both relevant points in drawing conclusion in the absence of fact.
There's a couple of additional points to focus on in that Epstein had already been imprisoned on child sex crime in Florida so the environment wasn't new to him. He's not in general prison population either, he's in a unit removed from the harms child sexual offenders would ordinarily be exposed. They guy had money to buy protection, regardless of his crimes or charge sheet.

Sure it would have been uncomfortable in the surroundings, but enough to give it all up when there was a chance to escape it using the same method as previous? It'd seem unlikely but not entirely unbelievable that he'd top himself. I reckon it's pretty well accepted money can get you whatever you want. The idea that you could use money to get someone killed in prison seems pretty low down the list of unfathomable likelihood's.

So easy to see the hand of conspiracy in this one, it's got everything - World leaders, royalty, unimaginable wealth spread across all the players.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:14 am 
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derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


I'm sorry, but we simply don't know that. You don't. I don't. Nor does the judge overseeing his case - see here: https://nypost.com/2019/08/14/epstein-judge-wants-answers-about-first-incident-in-jail/. And the warder of the prison has so far refused to confirm or deny - again, see above link.

On top of that, there are reports of Epstein's lawyers believing his injuries were the result of an assault carried out by his cellmate, and requesting he be taken off suicide watch so that he wouldn't have to share a cell any longer. If you know enough to be certain that isn't the case, by all means fire it out there.

All I have been saying - and I really don't understand why this is such an outlandish thing to contemplate - is that until his trial was concluded, Epstein couldn't know his fate. With a team of the best lawyers his cash could buy, he likely had a shot, even if a slim one. He therefore had no reason - that any of us know of - to top himself.

Just to be clear. I am not saying that he categorically didn't kill himself. What I am pointing out is that there are enough anomalies - the above amongst them - that an open and shut assumption of suicide is very premature.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:16 am 
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Taranaki Snapper wrote:

I saw a doco on her last Sunday, it's her real name...


A case of art meets life, then.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:19 am 
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Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Santa wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Just to come back to this issue for a moment. Here are some examples of the work of Aussie Artist Patricia Piccinini, described as a protege of Tony Podesta's in an interview the Guardian conducted with him when he was riding the wave of success in the mid noughties. To be fair, there is serious technical ability on display here. But no one can look at this stuff and think it represents the tastes of people with a healthy inner life.

NSFW. You have been warned.
Spoiler: show
ImageImageImageImageImage


Great name for a great artist. I love her collaborations with sculptor Stacy Kneegrow.


Hard to think of a more appropriate one, isn't it. I wonder did she choose it as her artistic nom de plume.


Her lifesize nudes are eerily realistic. I was at her Canberra exhibition and you expected them to move.

Creepily realistic even down to the genitalia

:shock:


Very realistic. And very, very creepy.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:24 am 
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Bokkom wrote:
Good to see Waratah is back.
Care to share your ideas re the Mueller report with us?

If there's anything you don't understand you should speak with your grade school teachers or your parents. I'm not in the childminding business.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:13 am 
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derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


Agreed. Reports about the state of MCC also point in that direction. Plus a previously powerful man rendered powerless exercising his one last bit of power. There are plenty of reasons why he would commit suicide.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:24 am 
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Bullettyme wrote:
derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


Agreed. Reports about the state of MCC also point in that direction. Plus a previously powerful man rendered powerless exercising his one last bit of power. There are plenty of reasons why he would commit suicide.


But why now? That’s the point


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:26 am 
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Duff Paddy wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


Agreed. Reports about the state of MCC also point in that direction. Plus a previously powerful man rendered powerless exercising his one last bit of power. There are plenty of reasons why he would commit suicide.


But why now? That’s the point


Enormity of the situation sets in? Conditions at MCC? One final fudge you to everyone? Why does anyone pick a certain time to kill themselves.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:48 am 
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Waratah wrote:
Bokkom wrote:
Good to see Waratah is back.
Care to share your ideas re the Mueller report with us?

If there's anything you don't understand you should speak with your grade school teachers or your parents. I'm not in the childminding business.

Pity. You were so sure on the Trump thread that Mueller would obliterate Trump by exposing the whole sordid Russian collusion business.
Oh well, maybe next time.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:06 am 
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Bullettyme wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


Agreed. Reports about the state of MCC also point in that direction. Plus a previously powerful man rendered powerless exercising his one last bit of power. There are plenty of reasons why he would commit suicide.


But why now? That’s the point


Enormity of the situation sets in? Conditions at MCC? One final fudge you to everyone? Why does anyone pick a certain time to kill themselves.


Why then didn’t he do himself in when he faced an identical situation in Florida?


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:09 am 
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sonic_attack wrote:
derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


They're both relevant points in drawing conclusion in the absence of fact.

I'm responding to the statement that "he had no reason to off himself". He had reasons to off himself as pointing out by others earlier in the thread.

Not only that but he had, it seems, previously attempted self-harm - which from what we know was a separate incident to the beating he took - a significant indicator of his mental state.

His previous experience in an open door prison is not relevant - he was facing federal time. Bill Crosby, despite having 100s of millions of dollars, has been attacked multiple times in the pen.

I'm not saying the episode doesn't stink, but claiming he had no reason to attempt suicide is simply untrue. There are plenty of reasons - not only loss of status, the trappings of wealth, facing the real possibility of spending every remaining day of your life in the pen, knowing how child molesters are treated (he'd already had a taste of this) and everything else he's lost are "reasons". Whether you think they're sufficient reasons or not can be debated but to deny that they exist at all is just silly.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:31 am 
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hermes-trismegistus wrote:
He therefore had no reason - that any of us know of - to top himself.

Just to be clear. I am not saying that he categorically didn't kill himself. What I am pointing out is that there are enough anomalies - the above amongst them - that an open and shut assumption of suicide is very premature.

I've said nothing about the caused of his death, never mind claimed that that it was "open and shut" suicide?

I've simply stated that your categorical claim, repeated above, that "he had no reason to kill himself", is silly. He had plenty of reasons to kill himself - I've listed some above as have others before me in the thread.

Pointing out anomalies in the circumstances don't invalidate these reasons.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:41 am 
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hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Why then didn’t he do himself in when he faced an identical situation in Florida?


His handlers hadn't deserted him then.

Edit: also, his charges in Florida paled in comparison, and particularly what he ended up being charged with. He was a lot more f**ked this time, by a lot of accounts.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:49 am 
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derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
He therefore had no reason - that any of us know of - to top himself.

Just to be clear. I am not saying that he categorically didn't kill himself. What I am pointing out is that there are enough anomalies - the above amongst them - that an open and shut assumption of suicide is very premature.

I've said nothing about the caused of his death, never mind claimed that that it was "open and shut" suicide?

I've simply stated that your categorical claim, repeated above, that "he had no reason to kill himself", is silly. He had plenty of reasons to kill himself - I've listed some above as have others before me in the thread.

Pointing out anomalies in the circumstances don't invalidate these reasons.


Ok. The issue here seems to be my loose phraseology. Let me clear it up. Until sentenced, the man had plenty to be hopeful about and to live for. This also tallies with the frame of mind his lawyers say he was in right up to the end.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:53 am 
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Bullettyme wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Why then didn’t he do himself in when he faced an identical situation in Florida?


His handlers hadn't deserted him then.

Edit: also, his charges in Florida paled in comparison, and particularly what he ended up being charged with. He was a lot more f**ked this time, by a lot of accounts.


Which handlers?

I’m not sure the charges were significantly different at all. In Florida, he was being investigated for crimes involving 30+ girls, some as young as 14. Unless I’ve missed something, the two investigations are of a piece.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:00 am 
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hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Why then didn’t he do himself in when he faced an identical situation in Florida?


His handlers hadn't deserted him then.

Edit: also, his charges in Florida paled in comparison, and particularly what he ended up being charged with. He was a lot more f**ked this time, by a lot of accounts.


Which handlers?

I’m not sure the charges were significantly different at all. In Florida, he was being investigated for crimes involving 30+ girls, some as young as 14. Unless I’ve missed something, the two investigations are of a piece.


By Acosta's own account he had g-men leaning on him to halt the investigation and offer up a deal. Above his pay grade. Makes you wonder if there guys left him for dead this time.

Now, none of this is to say I don't believe this doesn't all stink to hell. I just think the alleged suicide has it's very valid causes and reasons.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:21 am 
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Bullettyme wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Why then didn’t he do himself in when he faced an identical situation in Florida?


His handlers hadn't deserted him then.

Edit: also, his charges in Florida paled in comparison, and particularly what he ended up being charged with. He was a lot more f**ked this time, by a lot of accounts.


Which handlers?

I’m not sure the charges were significantly different at all. In Florida, he was being investigated for crimes involving 30+ girls, some as young as 14. Unless I’ve missed something, the two investigations are of a piece.


By Acosta's own account he had g-men leaning on him to halt the investigation and offer up a deal. Above his pay grade. Makes you wonder if there guys left him for dead this time.

Now, none of this is to say I don't believe this doesn't all stink to hell. I just think the alleged suicide has it's very valid causes and reasons.


Yes, of course. Forgot that snippet from Acosta. A real eye-opener.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:56 am 
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derriz wrote:
sonic_attack wrote:
derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


They're both relevant points in drawing conclusion in the absence of fact.

I'm responding to the statement that "he had no reason to off himself". He had reasons to off himself as pointing out by others earlier in the thread.

Not only that but he had, it seems, previously attempted self-harm - which from what we know was a separate incident to the beating he took - a significant indicator of his mental state.

His previous experience in an open door prison is not relevant - he was facing federal time. Bill Crosby, despite having 100s of millions of dollars, has been attacked multiple times in the pen.

I'm not saying the episode doesn't stink, but claiming he had no reason to attempt suicide is simply untrue. There are plenty of reasons - not only loss of status, the trappings of wealth, facing the real possibility of spending every remaining day of your life in the pen, knowing how child molesters are treated (he'd already had a taste of this) and everything else he's lost are "reasons". Whether you think they're sufficient reasons or not can be debated but to deny that they exist at all is just silly.


No I agree with that. The most plausible being a genuine suicide. It's the easiest to digest. But likewise too, Bill Cosby is Bill Cosby and I wouldn't deny his popularity I just don't see Cosby on the same level as what's been exposed, or more importantly not been exposed with Epstein.

It's like the perfect storm.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:58 am 
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Seneca of the Night wrote:
Bokkom wrote:
Waratah wrote:
Bokkom wrote:
Good to see Waratah is back.
Care to share your ideas re the Mueller report with us?

If there's anything you don't understand you should speak with your grade school teachers or your parents. I'm not in the childminding business.

Pity. You were so sure on the Trump thread that Mueller would obliterate Trump by exposing the whole sordid Russian collusion business.
Oh well, maybe next time.


Speaking of people reading the New York Times and making the grievous error of thinking it might be reporting facts and sheeit, here is a fascinating piece in slate: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/201 ... cript.html

Dean baquet seems like a decent man being pulled apart by forces he can't control. This quote is amazing:

Quote:
The closest Baquet came to identifying a moment when the paper had misjudged current events was when he described it as being “a little tiny bit flat-footed” after the Mueller investigation ended. “Our readers who want Donald Trump to go away suddenly thought, ‘Holy shit, Bob Mueller is not going to do it,’” Baquet said. “And Donald Trump got a little emboldened politically, I think. Because, you know, for obvious reasons. And I think that the story changed. A lot of the stuff we’re talking about started to emerge like six or seven weeks ago.”

By this account, the question of how to address presidential racism was a newly emerged one, something the paper would need to pivot into. “How do we cover America, that’s become so divided by Donald Trump?” he said. “How do we grapple with all the stuff you all are talking about? How do we write about race in a thoughtful way, something we haven’t done in a large way in a long time?”


Okay, so the Russia story was garbage (obvious to sensible people) so now its all about racism and white supremacy. Everyone has their orders and talking points now GO!

Just amazing, isn't it? IMO people like Rachel Maddow and her ilk should be out on the streets looking for another job outside of the "news" business. But no, like you said, it's just onto a new, clickbaity talking point. And make no mistake, these people peddled a conspiracy theory of cosmic proportions, dominating the airwaves with this hoax for more than two years.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:00 pm 
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a that transcript is absolutely staggering. What are people supposed to make of This?

Quote:
The same newspaper that this week will publish the 1619 Project, the most ambitious examination of the legacy of slavery ever undertaken in [inaudible] newspaper, to try to understand the forces that led to the election of Donald Trump.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:01 pm 
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Someone flew a drone over his mansion while the FBI raided it.
Footage is on youtube.

https://www.celebritynetworth.com/artic ... sive-raid/


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:35 pm 
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Waratah wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
It did occur to me that there is a straightforward explanation for Epstein coming off suicide watch: he wasn't at all suicidal. The psychologists, the medical professionals, the prison management, and Epstein's lawyers all believed he wasn't a risk because he wasn't.

This is not a strong argument. Other than being perfectly circular it ignores the obvious suicide risk. A man who had everything now ruined, universally reviled, facing life in prison as a child sex trafficker.
Quote:
...we now hear his legal team were working on what could have been a perfectly serviceable defence - double jeopardy - I really can't see what incentive he had to call time on everything without first sticking around to see if it worked out...

My 10 second Wiki refresher says double jeopardy 'prevents an accused being tried again on the same charges and on the same facts, following a valid acquittal or conviction.' Surely the known facts and charges are quite different and Epstein knew he would die in prison either sooner or later.

Fishoodie had it right earlier for mine.
Quote:
Occams razor says yes [committed suicide].

1) Didn't he have enough reason to do so ?
2) Hadn't he already demonstrated a desire, & an ability to do so ?
3) If his prior, failed, attempt wasn't authentic; why didn't his Lawyers scream bloody murder & get him moved ??
...and most importantly
4) If you really wanted to murder someone; would you pick a Federal facility, where you have to pass thru a dozen levels of security, & are background checked before being admitted, & are under CC surveillance every step of the way ?

He'd dodged the bullet before, thru his influence, & now it must have been obvious to him that he was going to spend the rest of his life in prison, & in, 'special units'. He was fucked, & he he knew damn well he was.

All of this remains true. So far as an obvious suicide risk being 'allowed' to hang himself, I'm reminded of the adage, 'never attribute to malice which can be explained by incompetence'.

Remove all unnecessary assumptions and he most likely killed himself, but you wouldn't rule much out. It's got everything. Conspiracy gold. One minute you're ridiculing QAnon for certifiable theories of international pedophile rings among the global elite, and the next...

Irresistible.


Well this is the thing with conspiracy theories isn't it. They are by definition not really compatible with Occam's. The razor would quickly have done away with savile a decade ago. That many people enabling him?

But if we must, surely Occam's razor says he wouldn't have commited suicide now? Why not wait until he was found guilty?


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:57 pm 
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RodneyRegis wrote:

Well this is the thing with conspiracy theories isn't it. They are by definition not really compatible with Occam's. The razor would quickly have done away with savile a decade ago. That many people enabling him?

But if we must, surely Occam's razor says he wouldn't have commited suicide now? Why not wait until he was found guilty?



I agree. All sides using Occam's razor here are simply repeating their perspective. It's a coin flip, it's perfectly likely Epstein saw the end and went suicidal as it's perfectly likely he had faced this before and used his power and money to get a joke sentence out of it and so why would he be suicidal again? There isn't a more simple path here that is perfectly logical more rational position.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:23 pm 
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Duff Paddy wrote:
Bullettyme wrote:
derriz wrote:
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
The point here being that Epstein - no matter how grim his situation - had no reason to off himself before knowing the outcome. At least, none that we know of.

This is silly and I thought you'd already conceded this point? Not only had he had plenty of reasons to be suicidal but he'd recently attempted suicide - a pretty good indicator of his mental state. Penitentiary time for a rich chomo is going to be living hell.


Agreed. Reports about the state of MCC also point in that direction. Plus a previously powerful man rendered powerless exercising his one last bit of power. There are plenty of reasons why he would commit suicide.


But why now? That’s the point

Narcissists are quite susceptible to it when the wind goes out of their baloon.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:47 pm 
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Lot of talk about Occam's razor. Hanlon's razor may be applicable too, especially in relation to the authorities who failed to stop him.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:37 pm 
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Uncle Fester wrote:
Lot of talk about Occam's razor. Hanlon's razor may be applicable too, especially in relation to the authorities who failed to stop him.

Ahem.
Waratah wrote:
I'm reminded of the adage, 'never attribute to malice which can be explained by incompetence'.

Hermes.
hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Why then didn’t he do himself in when he faced an identical situation in Florida?

They weren't remotely identical situations. In the Florida case he wasn't remanded in jail. He was free on bail until his lawyers negotiated a sweetheart plea deal which indemnified co-conspirators and meant he would serve only a year in a private wing of Palm Beach county jail essentially qs a free man, coming and going as he pleased. Only then did he surrender himself, when it appeared he'd essentially gotten away with it. That is a very different scenario to the one he found himself in at the time of his death. He was f**ked and he knew it.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:23 pm 
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https://amp.tmz.com/2019/08/16/jeffrey-epstein-autopsy-confirms-suicide-by-hanging/

So the coroner says suicide......chose your fighter
1)Coroners a mossad agent or adjacent

2)He was hung by someone else who made it look that way

3)He was compelled to commit suicide

4)He realized the game was up and committed suicide of his own volition.

Number and reason.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:25 pm 
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hermes-trismegistus wrote:
Ok. The issue here seems to be my loose phraseology. Let me clear it up. Until sentenced, the man had plenty to be hopeful about and to live for. This also tallies with the frame of mind his lawyers say he was in right up to the end.

Fair enough but my issue isn't really with your phrasing which I think was clear.

I agree with you that "he had reasons to not kill himself". My problem is the flawed reasoning that starts with that reasonable fact but concludes with "he had no reasons to kill himself". I've seen this trick used as a logical slight of hand too many times when arguing with my more conspiratorially minded friends.

There were reasons for him to not kill himself and reasons for him to kill himself. These two claims are completely independent.


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