Planet Rugby Forum

An insider's view of what is going on in the Brexit talks

Raoul Ruparel was Theresa May’s special adviser on Europe during the first round of Brexit negotiations.

Here he talks negotiating tactics, strategies, how exhaustion in the room will play out and how the former prime minister recovered from the lowest point in negotiations when she was humiliated in Salzburg.

How much time is left?
“Both sides have got themselves into an ideological corner and are struggling to get out,” he says.

If a deal is not struck by 11 December time is probably up. “If it goes past the council meeting on Thursday, if you can’t get anything to unlock the impasse by then, you might have a few days beyond but if it goes into December 14, 15, 16, it’s hard to see it being salvaged.” The legal text does not have to be finalised by Thursday but the outline breakthrough solution does.

What will negotiators be doing at the 11th hour?
“Ultimately, the red lines and the constraints are set up a level above so you sort of do the best with the framework and working with it.

“There will be some frustration, having to go this route yet again. They’ve been going round in circles on these issues for months. But we also have to remember at this stage, the people in the room are united in the aim of wanting to land a deal and the difficulties tend to be with people outside the room. That makes the atmosphere slightly, slightly more positive for everyone. So while I think the officials will be tired frustrated, quite tense and feeling the pressure, they are ultimately working towards a common goal.

“There will be pluses and minuses. They’ve been in the weeds of this stuff for a year and that means you’re obviously very attached to your negotiating position and it’s sometimes hard to step back and see the bigger picture. But equally because you are exhausted, you want to get this done.”

What was the worst moment of the first round?
The nadir was when Theresa May was left fighting to save her Chequers Brexit plan and with it her authority as prime minister after she was ambushed at the end of the Salzburg summit in 2018 when EU leaders unexpectedly declared that her proposals would not work.

“I think both sides misread the other side. And, therefore, it was quite a low point in terms of the gap and obviously because it was at the highest level it was quite a serious.”

Two days later a clearly enraged May made a televised statement demanding the EU “show us some respect”, saying the UK could not accept a simple brushing aside by Donald Tusk. It proved the recovery point.

“I think both sides realised that this had gone wrong, and the EU realised they had gone too far as well, so there was a dialling back and rapprochement.”

Tactics – bring up old stuff.
One negotiation tactic used in trade talks is “dredging up old stuff” to try to wear the other side down on other points where you don’t want a compromise. This is exactly what Downing Street believe the EU did last week when it protested it had introduced new elements to the negotiation table at the 11th hour.

“I don’t know the exact details but I am told the reports are accurate that they reintroduced issues on the level playing field they thought was settled as a way of getting leverage somewhere else,” says Ruparel.

It forces the other side, the UK, to reopen the chapter, “bring out the old arguments explaining why this or that can’t happen and demolish their position”. In this scenario, the hope of the EU would be once it agrees the UK was right all along, it will come across as having conceded, making the UK feeling obliged to compromise on something else. “We’ve seen them deployed before in terms of dredging up old things,” says Ruparel.

Can the deal be unlocked?

“I think it’s rare that brand new ideas are brought to the table but they will be going back and looking at stuff previously discounted and might try again.”

The Irish border was an example of this. A border down the Irish Sea was mooted at the outset of the first phase but “very quickly shelved” but was dusted down at the 11th hour by Boris Johnson who was able to succeed because it was “crunch time” but also because he had momentum and support on the backbenches.

“If it was deployed at any other time in negotiations it probably wouldn’t have worked. It just happened to be the right answer at the right time,” says Ruparel.

Establishing leverage and communications weapons

Briefing politicians and the public is critical in establishing support for positions in negotiations, he says.

“The EU were much more effective than us” in the first round, briefing diplomats and holding regular press conferences and briefings for interest groups, helping establish their position as the orthodoxy in public discourse.

The Irish backstop controversy was a case in point, he says. The EU got their position out not just in communications but in their legal text long before the UK had fully rehearsed the arguments. “It was effective. They were very good at putting their hardline unreasonable positions early, making it difficult to move them off their positions.”

Budgets, vetoes, values, defence … division and dithering shame the EU
Simon Tisdall
Simon Tisdall
Read more
“The UK side has been better in this stage in trying to counter that and being on the front foot on its positions,” he says. The Northern Ireland secretary, Brandon Lewis, standing up in the House of Commons declaring the UK was prepared to breach international law with the internal market bill is an example of this. While it “also has its side-effects in terms of undermining trust”, said Ruparel, “it’s clearly something that they feel generates leverage for them by demonstrating the potential negatives of no deal and difficulties there might be for the EU side” in respect of Northern Ireland.

Sawtooth the Beaver wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:17 pm

Sawtooth the Beaver wrote: ↑06 Dec 2020 09:10
Maybe Bimbo would be kind enough to explain exactly how Parliament would have got together over a soft EFTA exit.


PM May, shall we go for EFTA ?


Arranges this as part of withdrawal agreement.


Puts a vote before parliament......

This isn’t difficult.

Theresa May is elected on a slogan of "Brexit means Brexit" then turns around and says right boys EFTA

Everyone falls in line.

Yeah right.

Bloomberg Brexit
BREAKING: Brexit negotiators are closing in on a political landing zone for fish, leaving the so-called level playing field as the biggest obstacle to a deal, according to a source https://trib.al/NXgsmju

A new trade agreement will "definitely" not come together tonight, an EU official has told Reuters news agency.

It follows reports from Bloomberg that the two sides were close to agreeing fishing quotas and access for EU vessels to UK waters from 2021.

The Reuters source, who spoke under condition of anonymity, insisted that the three main issues - fisheries, economic fair play and a dispute resolution mechanism - remained unresolved.

The head of the EU's executive, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson are due to talk again on the phone on Monday afternoon to try get above the line a new partnership pact.

Brexit talks ‘on a knife edge’, says Irish leader
Irish premier Micheal Martin has urged the UK and EU to use their “common sense” and reach a post-Brexit trade deal.

The Taoiseach said in an interview with RTE: "I think the situation is serious and the three issues that prove very difficult to reconcile all the way through the talks are still there to be dealt with.

"Namely, the level field, which is proving particularly difficult, fisheries and of course the dispute resolution mechanism to deal with the level playing field issue.

"My sense is that we are at a very difficult juncture and it's important that the Zoom talks use every piece of creativity they can, that the participants try and get a resolution, because a no-deal would be very damaging to all concerned, to the United Kingdom, to the Irish economy and indeed to the economies of member states as well.

“It's very, very important that common sense prevails here and that a deal is done.”

Mr Martin said he thought the chances of a deal were 50-50 and added: “Things are on a knife edge and it is serious.”

"I don't think one can be overly optimistic about a resolution emerging and my sense, having spoken to some of the key principals here, that this is a very challenging issue to resolve, particularly around the level playing field.

"The important dimension here is to get a deal and to make sure it's a deal that works in the medium to longer term because a good sustainable relationship with the UK and EU is what makes sense for the medium term.

“If it takes an extra couple of days to get this resolved, it's better to do that than to rush this.”

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:43 pm The Irish have been pretty sensible lately unlike the frogs.

Brexit talks ‘on a knife edge’, says Irish leader
Irish premier Micheal Martin has urged the UK and EU to use their “common sense” and reach a post-Brexit trade deal.

The Taoiseach said in an interview with RTE: "I think the situation is serious and the three issues that prove very difficult to reconcile all the way through the talks are still there to be dealt with.

"Namely, the level field, which is proving particularly difficult, fisheries and of course the dispute resolution mechanism to deal with the level playing field issue.

"My sense is that we are at a very difficult juncture and it's important that the Zoom talks use every piece of creativity they can, that the participants try and get a resolution, because a no-deal would be very damaging to all concerned, to the United Kingdom, to the Irish economy and indeed to the economies of member states as well.

“It's very, very important that common sense prevails here and that a deal is done.”

Mr Martin said he thought the chances of a deal were 50-50 and added: “Things are on a knife edge and it is serious.”

"I don't think one can be overly optimistic about a resolution emerging and my sense, having spoken to some of the key principals here, that this is a very challenging issue to resolve, particularly around the level playing field.

"The important dimension here is to get a deal and to make sure it's a deal that works in the medium to longer term because a good sustainable relationship with the UK and EU is what makes sense for the medium term.

“If it takes an extra couple of days to get this resolved, it's better to do that than to rush this.”

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:43 pm Level playing field is the biggest issue for the EU.

Fish is a small problem and wont economically hurt the EU.

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:49 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:43 pm Level playing field is the biggest issue for the EU.

Fish is a small problem and wont economically hurt the EU.

The biggest abusers of the current level playing field rules within the EU are Germany followed by France. Many times worse than the UK has ever been. Even this is a fake argument to try and keep ECJ over sight.

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:55 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:49 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:43 pm Level playing field is the biggest issue for the EU.

Fish is a small problem and wont economically hurt the EU.

The biggest abusers of the current level playing field rules within the EU are Germany followed by France. Many times worse than the UK has ever been. Even this is a fake argument to try and keep ECJ over sight.

But you're no longer a member so the point is useless. Remember this is an EU condition. Take it or leave it.

Now that you wont be getting the gold standard US trade deal, you need to concede more "if" you want that access to the single market

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:58 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:55 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:49 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:43 pm Level playing field is the biggest issue for the EU.

Fish is a small problem and wont economically hurt the EU.

The biggest abusers of the current level playing field rules within the EU are Germany followed by France. Many times worse than the UK has ever been. Even this is a fake argument to try and keep ECJ over sight.

But you're no longer a member so the point is useless. Remember this is an EU condition. Take it or leave it.

Now that you wont be getting the gold standard US trade deal, you need to concede more "if" you want that access to the single market

It’s a condition which the EU two biggest countries ignore. We are still under EU regulation but even leaving we behave better than Germany and France.

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

Which is why the demand is ludicrous.

message #2527204 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:00 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

It's not a f**king level playing field then is it?

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

Which is why the demand is ludicrous.

But you need the deal and the EU won't back down on that unless there is a proper governance body set up to adjudicate.

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:02 pm

message #2527204 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:00 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

It's not a f**king level playing field then is it?

For the EU it is.

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm Point is neither are good at following EU rules and UK has higher standards than almost all the countries in the EU. This is just a dirty tactic by EU to make sure UK don't prosper outside the EU.
If they continue to demand the BS level playing field condition to the UK to EU rules, there certainly will be no deal. But I suspect both sides want a deal and trying to make compromises to find a deal that will be acceptable to both parties. I still believe there will be a deal.

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

Which is why the demand is ludicrous.

But you need the deal and the EU won't back down on that unless there is a proper governance body set up to adjudicate.

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:03 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

Which is why the demand is ludicrous.

But you need the deal and the EU won't back down on that unless there is a proper governance body set up to adjudicate.

We need the deal, EU don't...

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

Which is why the demand is ludicrous.

But you need the deal and the EU won't back down on that unless there is a proper governance body set up to adjudicate.

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:04 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:53 pm Good point Bimbo. I believethose 2 countries have broke have the rules far more times than the UK.

But they can. That's the difference

Which is why the demand is ludicrous.

But you need the deal and the EU won't back down on that unless there is a proper governance body set up to adjudicate.

We can have the same governance provision as Canada and Japan of you like,

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:05 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:03 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:57 pm

But they can. That's the difference

Which is why the demand is ludicrous.

But you need the deal and the EU won't back down on that unless there is a proper governance body set up to adjudicate.

We need the deal, EU don't...

It's you that needs the deal. EU will be fine regardless .

EU has bigger problems right now

message #2527204 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:07 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:05 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:03 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm

bimboman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:59 pm



Which is why the demand is ludicrous.

But you need the deal and the EU won't back down on that unless there is a proper governance body set up to adjudicate.

We need the deal, EU don't...

It's you that needs the deal. EU will be fine regardless .

EU has bigger problems right now

And so we go back to page one of the first Brexit thread

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:07 pm EU certainly won't be fine, even with a deal. They will be in a even bigger mess without a deal. Yes UK will endure a few difficult years but they will come out stronger. EU will have a powerful and an angry neighbour.

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:09 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:07 pm EU certainly won't be fine, even with a deal. They will be in a even bigger mess without a deal. Yes UK will endure a few difficult years but they will come out stronger. EU will have a powerful and an angry neighbour.

And we protect from that angry neighbour by not giving them access to the single market

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:08 pm

message #2527204 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:07 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:05 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:03 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:01 pm

But you need the deal and the EU won't back down on that unless there is a proper governance body set up to adjudicate.

We need the deal, EU don't...

It's you that needs the deal. EU will be fine regardless .

EU has bigger problems right now

And so we go back to page one of the first Brexit thread

There was talk about Hungary and Poland leaving. I'd love that personally. You can set up your own bloc with them

Rugby2023 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:11 pm Deal's done imo, current theatre is a sales pitch to both sides.

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:11 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:09 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:07 pm EU certainly won't be fine, even with a deal. They will be in a even bigger mess without a deal. Yes UK will endure a few difficult years but they will come out stronger. EU will have a powerful and an angry neighbour.

And we protect from that angry neighbour by not giving them access to the single market

Oh we have access to the single market, just have to pay tariffs. Unlucky for the EU, the biggest EU countries (that actually contribute to the EU budget), have a trade surplus with the UK so they will be hit just as hard if not harder.

message #2527204 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:11 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:08 pm

message #2527204 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:07 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:05 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:03 pm

We need the deal, EU don't...

It's you that needs the deal. EU will be fine regardless .

EU has bigger problems right now

And so we go back to page one of the first Brexit thread

There was talk about Hungary and Poland leaving. I'd love that personally. You can set up your own bloc with them

There's talk about Macron wanting to exclude the eastern countries from his grand projet for the united states of europe.

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:16 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:11 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:09 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:07 pm EU certainly won't be fine, even with a deal. They will be in a even bigger mess without a deal. Yes UK will endure a few difficult years but they will come out stronger. EU will have a powerful and an angry neighbour.

And we protect from that angry neighbour by not giving them access to the single market

Oh we have access to the single market, just have to pay tariffs. Unlucky for the EU, the biggest EU countries (that actually contribute to the EU budget), have a trade surplus with the UK so they will be hit just as hard if not harder.

Just have to pay tarriffs. No big deal.

Thats exactly how the EU will make UK goods incredibly expensive so that internal market goods have no competition to worry about from the UK.

You have the Commonwealth though.

message #2527204 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:18 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:16 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:11 pm

iarmhiman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:09 pm

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:07 pm EU certainly won't be fine, even with a deal. They will be in a even bigger mess without a deal. Yes UK will endure a few difficult years but they will come out stronger. EU will have a powerful and an angry neighbour.

And we protect from that angry neighbour by not giving them access to the single market

Oh we have access to the single market, just have to pay tariffs. Unlucky for the EU, the biggest EU countries (that actually contribute to the EU budget), have a trade surplus with the UK so they will be hit just as hard if not harder.

Just have to pay tarriffs. No big deal.

Thats exactly how the EU will make UK goods incredibly expensive so that internal market goods have no competition to worry about from the UK.

You have the Commonwealth though.

WTO doesn't allow that. Well it does, but allows retaliation.

TranceNRG wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:13 pm

Rugby2023 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:11 pm Deal's done imo, current theatre is a sales pitch to both sides.

I sometimes wonder if that's the case however surely they won't go to these lengths for the sake of 'putting on a show'. I do think they are very close and the remaining issues will be resolved in the next few days.