Irish unity....?

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The Sun God
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Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

It appears you can't open a British newspaper these days without reading some editorial/opinion piece on this subject. I guess it's not too surprising given the shenanigans we have witnessed in the past 3.5 years since the referendum.
What do the bored think of this...?
Personally, I think it's not a good idea and that the cost to the Irish republic ( and not just in monetary terms ) would be too high to guarantee the parity of esteem that is highlighted in the GFA..... but that's just me.
bimboman
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by bimboman »

I’m in, united it now.
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Liathroidigloine
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by Liathroidigloine »

The Sun God wrote:It appears you can't open a British newspaper these days without reading some editorial/opinion piece on this subject. I guess it's not too surprising given the shenanigans we have witnessed in the past 3.5 years since the referendum.
What do the bored think of this...?
Personally, I think it's not a good idea and that the cost to the Irish republic ( and not just in monetary terms ) would be too high to guarantee the parity of esteem that is highlighted in the GFA..... but that's just me.
Water down "the border" to the point that it has no significance. Get more of a say in the major decisions and that will do me. My trip up there this year certainly weakened any desire for a UI that I may have had..
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Hellraiser
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by Hellraiser »

Absolutely in favour and don't believe it will be as expensive as naysayers harp on about.
Mullet 2

Re: Irish unity....?

Post by Mullet 2 »

Brits out
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lilyw
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by lilyw »

bimboman wrote:I’m in, united it now.
Thanks but no thanks.

You broke it; you fix it before giving it back to us.

By that I mean - in the 100 years since partition Westminster has allowed the NI economy to wither on the vine. It needs a significant structural reform; I don't want the first acts of the government of a UI to be ones that further alienate an already mistrustful NI middle class.

Also I am absolutely unconvinced that there is going to be an NI majority for it any time soon.
Last edited by lilyw on Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
bimboman
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by bimboman »

lilyw wrote:
bimboman wrote:I’m in, united it now.
Thanks but no thanks.

You broke it; you fix it before giving it back to us.

It’s fixed , off you toddle.
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

Hellraiser wrote:Absolutely in favour and don't believe it will be as expensive as naysayers harp on about.
I don't think I am a 'naysayer' but how would you fill the 12 billion euro hole ( ok say 8 billion given economies of scale ) that it would leave in the Irish budget. Would Europe step into fill a part of the void.... maybe but not to any major extent.
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by Lemoentjie »

They're not very unified if the rumours about the RWC are true!!
Mullet 2

Re: Irish unity....?

Post by Mullet 2 »

lilyw wrote:
bimboman wrote:I’m in, united it now.
Thanks but no thanks.

You broke it; you fix it before giving it back to us.

By that I mean - in the 100 years since partition Westminster has allowed the NI economy to wither on the vine. It needs a significant structural reform; I don't want the first acts of the government of a UI to be ones that further alienate an already mistrustful NI middle class.

Also I am absolutely unconvinced that there is going to be an NI majority for it any time soon.
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by Mullet 2 »

The Sun God wrote:
Hellraiser wrote:Absolutely in favour and don't believe it will be as expensive as naysayers harp on about.
I don't think I am a 'naysayer' but how would you fill the 12 billion euro hole ( ok say 8 billion given economies of scale ) that it would leave in the Irish budget. Would Europe step into fill a part of the void.... maybe but not to any major extent.
Austerity
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

Mullet 2 wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
Hellraiser wrote:Absolutely in favour and don't believe it will be as expensive as naysayers harp on about.
I don't think I am a 'naysayer' but how would you fill the 12 billion euro hole ( ok say 8 billion given economies of scale ) that it would leave in the Irish budget. Would Europe step into fill a part of the void.... maybe but not to any major extent.
Austerity
We do that better than we play Rugby.....
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camroc1
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Post by camroc1 »

Need to start a constitutional convention on unity, including, if not unionist parties, prominent unionists, and orange men in NI society.


The Brits would have to agree to give actual financial figures, that is what actual costs and revenues are, excluding things like defence, national debt etc., etc., and actual tax revenues raised including those paid in GB on behalf of NI companies etc.
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nardol
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by nardol »

Yes - we abandoned out northern brethren before and must not do it again.

I would be for a phased approach. Amalgamate west of the Bann first (all nationalist majority counties anyway) and think about the rest at a later stage, if at all.

I see this as a simple rectification or finishing of the work of the original Irish Boundary Commission.

Prevent violence by keeping a reduced in size NI - where the majority of them live anyway.

Keep increase in costs down for Ireland.
Last edited by nardol on Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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hermie
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by hermie »

If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
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The Sun God
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

camroc1 wrote:Need to start a constitutional convention on unity, including, if not unionist parties, prominent unionists, and orange men in NI society.


The Brits would have to agree to give actual financial figures, that is what actual costs and revenues are, excluding things like defence, national debt etc., etc., and actual tax revenues raised including those paid in GB on behalf of NI companies etc.
Do you honestly see them taking part in such a conversation ?
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???
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camroc1
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by camroc1 »

The Sun God wrote:
camroc1 wrote:Need to start a constitutional convention on unity, including, if not unionist parties, prominent unionists, and orange men in NI society.


The Brits would have to agree to give actual financial figures, that is what actual costs and revenues are, excluding things like defence, national debt etc., etc., and actual tax revenues raised including those paid in GB on behalf of NI companies etc.
Do you honestly see them taking part in such a conversation ?
If they’ve any sense (I know) they will. Otherwise they face amalgamation into the present state following a 51% vote.
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by rfurlong »

bimboman wrote:I’m in, united it now.
the fact that Bimbo thinks its a good idea, should be a warning to anyone with UI ambitions

its a big NO from me

the brits broke it and they can fvcking keep it
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hermie
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by hermie »

The Sun God wrote:
hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???
Dublin won't be able to stump up the equivalent of what London currently does. But will the drop off in that regard be worse than Brexit?
rfurlong

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Post by rfurlong »

EverReady wrote:As the president of Leinster says No and it's affiliate Prods are Not Just for Christmas I say we need to remember millions of them are just not that into us. If it is some how forced through we need to rule them with an iron fist. Brook no dissension and make an example of a couple of hundred thousand of them. Mainly farmers and lads home for the weekend from Leeds
:lol:
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by iarmhiman »

I think it's looking ever more likely.

And before Hellraiser goes on the attack these are just my opinions on what a united Ireland could look like:

Flag will have to change
anthem has to change
Ireland federalises into two northern Ireland (6 counties) and southern Ireland (26 counties) controlled by Dublin on foreign affairs. Each state looks after it's own internal laws and budget.
Three languages to be recognised: English, Irish and Ulster Scots


As neither side will be very happy, it seems the perfect compromise.
rfurlong

Re: Irish unity....?

Post by rfurlong »

Hellraiser wrote:Absolutely in favour and don't believe it will be as expensive as naysayers harp on about.

naysayers like Ireland's leading economists?

a UI would cost RoI €30bn in cuts or tax increases (i.e. more than the end cost of the bank bailout)
it would destroy the NI economy, which relies on €10bn subvention every year from the UK

we wouldn't be back to the 80's, we'd be back to the 50's

what you 'believe' or 'feel' doesn't really matter ...... the empirical analysis is rock solid and a UI is an absolutely awful idea, both economically and societally
rfurlong

Re: Irish unity....?

Post by rfurlong »

hermie wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???
Dublin won't be able to stump up the equivalent of what London currently does. But will the drop off in that regard be worse than Brexit?
"yes" is the short answer ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.4016373
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by iarmhiman »

We can't afford it.

The EU can
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Post by Nolanator »

rfurlong wrote:
bimboman wrote:I’m in, united it now.
the fact that Bimbo thinks its a good idea, should be a warning to anyone with UI ambitions

its a big NO from me

the brits broke it and they can fvcking keep it
He only wants them gone because it complicates Brexit. He doesn't give a fudge about NI either way.
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Post by nardol »

Some things are more important than money.

Even so, the NI economy would be forced to start to stand on its own two feet.

There have been several researches stating that after a period of time the NI economy would be a significantly improved by the synergies with Ireland including benefiting from the corp tax rate
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

hermie wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???
Dublin won't be able to stump up the equivalent of what London currently does. But will the drop off in that regard be worse than Brexit?
I think we will/can handle Brexit. It will push us out of our comfort zone a bit but it will ultimately drive another big wedge between the UK and Ireland and force us to look further afield .
NI would take a big hit in services in a United Ireland, initially.
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lilyw
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Post by lilyw »

nardol wrote:Some things are more important than money.
Agreed - however this isn't one of them.

I'm conflicted though:

Disagree with Bimbo - good
Disagree with Mullet - good
Agree with RFurlong - bad

I may have to do a Dessie O'Malley: argue vigorously in favour of it, but then march against it on the streets.
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

iarmhiman wrote:We can't afford it.

The EU can
They can't actually and even if they could, why would they ?
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

nardol wrote:Some things are more important than money.

Even so, the NI economy would be forced to start to stand on its own two feet.

There have been several researches stating that after a period of time the NI economy would be a significantly improved by the synergies with Ireland including benefiting from the corp tax rate
Don't they already have that ?
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lilyw
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by lilyw »

nardol wrote:Some things are more important than money.

Even so, the NI economy would be forced to start to stand on its own two feet.

There have been several researches stating that after a period of time the NI economy would be a significantly improved by the synergies with Ireland including benefiting from the corp tax rate
This is like the argument about the Macro benefits of globalisation vs the local downsides.

Overall the NI economy might recover & even thrive. However there are places that will suffer really badly - e.g. those communities that service Army installations (I used to do a lot of work in the area near Thiepval barracks & it was a big provider of money into the local economy); and there is no immediately obvious replacement in sight.
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by Lazy Couch potato »

Ignoring the economic issues my own personal opinion has always been that any successful/non violent unification couldn’t occur for at least another generation. As people born since the gfa move into middle age and those who lived through the horrors of the troubles pass on. Simply put there is far too many scars.
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Post by Bogbunny »

rfurlong wrote:
EverReady wrote:As the president of Leinster says No and it's affiliate Prods are Not Just for Christmas I say we need to remember millions of them are just not that into us. If it is some how forced through we need to rule them with an iron fist. Brook no dissension and make an example of a couple of hundred thousand of them. Mainly farmers and lads home for the weekend from Leeds
:lol:
Nah. You're not big enough or hard enough.

Besides NI is a basket case of bigots on both sides, why would anyone want to get annexed by us?
rfurlong

Re: Irish unity....?

Post by rfurlong »

lilyw wrote:
nardol wrote:Some things are more important than money.
Agreed - however this isn't one of them.

I'm conflicted though:

Disagree with Bimbo - good
Disagree with Mullet - good
Agree with RFurlong - bad

I may have to do a Dessie O'Malley: argue vigorously in favour of it, but then march against it on the streets.
:lol:

Mullet deep down doesn't want a UI ..... its just a vote getting/protecting strategy for FF who, despite their mismanagement of the economy, aren't stupid enough to think that a UI wouldn't be a total fvcking calamity.

Funnily enough, in a UI the very purpose of FF (in southern voters eyes) would disappear .... and they would be eaten by SF in the same way that SDLP were wiped out up North

the economically literate wing of the party (which includes FF) realises this and would not welcome a UI
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Post by Hellraiser »

The Sun God wrote:
hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???

That's just not going to happen.
rfurlong

Re: Irish unity....?

Post by rfurlong »

Hellraiser wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???

That's just not going to happen.
agreed

more like the 50's
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Hellraiser
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by Hellraiser »

EverReady wrote:
Hellraiser wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???

That's just not going to happen.
The bombings will

By Loyalists? Without the help of MI5? :lol:
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The Sun God
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Re: Irish unity....?

Post by The Sun God »

Hellraiser wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???

That's just not going to happen.
Any in depth, academic, economic research paper i have read in the past two years would disagree with you. Even I can see massive economic liability issues relating to pension provisions etc.
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camroc1
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Post by camroc1 »

The Sun God wrote:
Hellraiser wrote:
The Sun God wrote:
hermie wrote:If the people of NI want it (and by that I mean more than scraping 51% or whatever) then I'm all for it.
Even if economy wise it puts Ireland back in the 80's.....???

That's just not going to happen.
Any in depth, academic, economic research paper i have read in the past two years would disagree with you. Even I can see massive economic liability issues relating to pension provisions etc.
Pensions stay the UK.
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