Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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RuggaBugga
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by RuggaBugga »

Flyin Ryan wrote:Pandemic in all but name. It seems like "recession" it has become a banned word due to connotations.
It's pathetic. It's quite clearly a pandemic. It's confirmed in some 20%* of the worlds countries and is spreading independently in several of them.

*heard on the radio this morning so not sure of the source.
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tiddle
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by tiddle »

Uncle Fester wrote:
tiddle wrote:
Sandstorm wrote:
Flyin Ryan wrote: Totals: 81191 confirmed cases, 2768 deaths
3.4 %. Not great, but certainly not PANNNICCCC!!!!!!! time either.
A lot of those confirmed cases have not recovered. It's more telling to compare the proportion of people who contract it and recover to those that don't.

I don't know where to get those figures though.

By all accounts, most deaths are either elderly or have compromised immune systems so it's still "just" an aggressive form of the flu.

Still odd how it shot up in Italy all of a sudden and not in other places first.
Ski holidays?
Possibly, but then that should affect France, Austria, Germany and Switzerland too.

So either Italy is the first place to detect it properly and it's as present in the other countries or a north italian was in wuhan and infected everyone
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tiddle
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by tiddle »

EverReady wrote:
tiddle wrote:
Sandstorm wrote:
Flyin Ryan wrote: Totals: 81191 confirmed cases, 2768 deaths
3.4 %. Not great, but certainly not PANNNICCCC!!!!!!! time either.
A lot of those confirmed cases have not recovered. It's more telling to compare the proportion of people who contract it and recover to those that don't.

I don't know where to get those figures though.

By all accounts, most deaths are either elderly or have compromised immune systems so it's still "just" an aggressive form of the flu.

Still odd how it shot up in Italy all of a sudden and not in other places first.
Some useful figures in this article. 12k recovered https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51214864
:thumbup:
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paddyor
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by paddyor »

Tancredi Palmeri
@tancredipalmeri
The #coronavirus cases in Italy:

Day 1: 14 cases, 1 dead
Day 2: 76 c., 2 dead
Day 3: 153 c., 3 dead
Day 4: 231 c., 7 dead
Day 5: 374 c., 12 dead

Note:
ALL victims had PREVIOUS CRITICAL disease.

Last 5 victims age range: 70 to 91 years old.

All victims: from 62 to 91 years old
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tiddle
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by tiddle »

That's very handy, cheers.

So fatality rate is currently 8.4 % when only considering recoveries and deaths (2770/(30311+2770)).

Obviously there are still loads of ongoing cases, so hopefully we'll see the rates of recovery go up faster than fatalities.
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TheFrog
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by TheFrog »

tiddle wrote:
That's very handy, cheers.

So fatality rate is currently 8.4 % when only considering recoveries and deaths (2770/(30311+2770)).

Obviously there are still loads of ongoing cases, so hopefully we'll see the rates of recovery go up faster than fatalities.
I would rather look at these reports from the Chinese:

81% develop mild symptoms
14% develop severe symptoms
5% become critically ill

I would guess that mortality is less than 5% therefore.
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JM2K6
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by JM2K6 »

tiddle wrote:
That's very handy, cheers.

So fatality rate is currently 8.4 % when only considering recoveries and deaths (2770/(30311+2770)).

Obviously there are still loads of ongoing cases, so hopefully we'll see the rates of recovery go up faster than fatalities.
Chinese CDC released a report a week ago saying 2.3% for China. That's still in Spanish Flu territory. 8.4% would be apocalyptic.
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TheFrog
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by TheFrog »

I am very suspicious about the situation in Africa. Sounds too good to be true.
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Wallah
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Wallah »

They were checking our temperatures as we flew into Cape Town airport the other day. Has anywhere in Africa reported CV cases yet?
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feckwanker
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by feckwanker »

So one of my friends who I traveled home with from Italy on Monday is being brought in for testing as his cough has gotten worse - fingers crossed :uhoh:
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lexpat
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by lexpat »

tiddle wrote:
Uncle Fester wrote:
Still odd how it shot up in Italy all of a sudden and not in other places first.

Possibly, but then that should affect France, Austria, Germany and Switzerland too.

So either Italy is the first place to detect it properly and it's as present in the other countries or a north italian was in wuhan and infected everyone
Marco Polo ?
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Mr. Very Popular
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Mr. Very Popular »

feckwanker wrote:So one of my friends who I traveled home with from Italy on Monday is being brought in for testing as his cough has gotten worse - fingers crossed :uhoh:
Get the Fûck out of here out diseased freak.
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tiddle
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by tiddle »

TheFrog wrote:
tiddle wrote:
That's very handy, cheers.

So fatality rate is currently 8.4 % when only considering recoveries and deaths (2770/(30311+2770)).

Obviously there are still loads of ongoing cases, so hopefully we'll see the rates of recovery go up faster than fatalities.
I would rather look at these reports from the Chinese:

81% develop mild symptoms
14% develop severe symptoms
5% become critically ill

I would guess that mortality is less than 5% therefore.
Good point
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tiddle
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by tiddle »

JM2K6 wrote:
tiddle wrote:
That's very handy, cheers.

So fatality rate is currently 8.4 % when only considering recoveries and deaths (2770/(30311+2770)).

Obviously there are still loads of ongoing cases, so hopefully we'll see the rates of recovery go up faster than fatalities.
Chinese CDC released a report a week ago saying 2.3% for China. That's still in Spanish Flu territory. 8.4% would be apocalyptic.
It's definitely not that high. Like I said, we'll see recoveries go up soon since most people are quarantined for 2 weeks. There was a sudden uptick in cases less than 2 weeks ago so you'd expect in the next couple of days those cases being converted to recoveries.
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by TB63 »

I've stopped popping bubble wrap..

That air came from China...
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AnkleTap
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by AnkleTap »

If you get it and recover, are you then immune? I didn't bother much with biology.
C69
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by C69 »

AnkleTap wrote:If you get it and recover, are you then immune? I didn't bother much with biology.
You may have immunity for a while, however we do not know enough about the virus to have specifics.
And by a while I mean who knows.
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DragsterDriver
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by DragsterDriver »

feckwanker wrote:So one of my friends who I traveled home with from Italy on Monday is being brought in for testing as his cough has gotten worse - fingers crossed :uhoh:
I’m putting you on ignore for now.
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paddyor
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by paddyor »

Flyin Ryan wrote:Pandemic in all but name. It seems like "recession" it has become a banned word due to connotations.
What’s the board game definition? Would you have lost by now?
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paddyor
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by paddyor »

feckwanker wrote:So one of my friends who I traveled home with from Italy on Monday is being brought in for testing as his cough has gotten worse - fingers crossed :uhoh:
A Garda by the name of Eoin, works in Pearse street?

Clayton hotel on Pearse street been cordoned off by lads in hazmat apparently.
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EverReady
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by EverReady »

So feckwanker was the first to get the AIDS
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feckwanker
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by feckwanker »

paddyor wrote:
feckwanker wrote:So one of my friends who I traveled home with from Italy on Monday is being brought in for testing as his cough has gotten worse - fingers crossed :uhoh:
A Garda by the name of Eoin, works in Pearse street?

Clayton hotel on Pearse street been cordoned off by lads in hazmat apparently.
Nope. A few of us in the south-east went skiing in Lombardy at the weekend. One of the lads got a cough when he came back which he claims steadily got worse over the day today. Rang the HSE who told him to come to the hospital and wait outside in the car and someone would come out to swab him and he could go home.

So you can imagine his surprise when two doctors in full hazmat suits came out and brought him in for testing. I really, really hope he gets the all clear as if he has it, the rest of us definitely do too.
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Flyin Ryan »

paddyor wrote:
Flyin Ryan wrote:Pandemic in all but name. It seems like "recession" it has become a banned word due to connotations.
What’s the board game definition? Would you have lost by now?
No, after having worked hard to contain in all the Chinese major cities, you'd now be firefighting epidemics in Milan, Tehran, and Seoul.
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massive_field_goal
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by massive_field_goal »

So cases have exploded in Bahrain overnight. Along with what is going on in Iran, clearly this thing has the capacity to spread more descretly than once thought.

No way in hell are there no cases in Indonesia and Africa.
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Altazuma
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Altazuma »

massive_field_goal wrote:So cases have exploded in Bahrain overnight. Along with what is going on in Iran, clearly this thing has the capacity to spread more descretly than once thought.

No way in hell are there no cases in Indonesia and Africa.
It is complete and utter nonsense.

This is what worries me. If it takes off there, they simply don't have the means to track it or even inform their citizens of the proper precautions.

Currently many of the locals in Bali are avoiding buying Chinese food for dinner. :|
Sundy
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Sundy »

massive_field_goal wrote:So cases have exploded in Bahrain overnight. Along with what is going on in Iran, clearly this thing has the capacity to spread more descretly than once thought.

No way in hell are there no cases in Indonesia and Africa.

It's a strange one, if there are cases in Indonesia you would expect it to be rampant with a high death rate.

Makes one wonder if there are different strains of the virus doing the rounds.
CanNZ2000
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by CanNZ2000 »

Take a wild guess at who is being referenced with this map.

Image
Sundy
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Sundy »

CanNZ2000 wrote:Take a wild guess at who is being referenced with this map.

Image

First community transmission confirmed in the US now
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/heal ... c-usa.html
C.D.C. Confirms First Possible Community Transmission of Coronavirus in U.S.
A case in California may be the first infection without a known link to travel abroad.

Roni Caryn Rabin
By Roni Caryn Rabin
Feb. 26, 2020
Updated 9:03 p.m. ET

A person in California who was not exposed to anyone known to be infected with the coronavirus, and had not traveled to countries in which the virus is circulating, has tested positive for the infection.

It may be the first case of community spread in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.

“At this point, the patient’s exposure is unknown,” the C.D.C. statement said. “The case was detected through the U.S. public health system and picked up by astute clinicians.”

The case was announced shortly after President Trump concluded a news briefing in which he said that aggressive public health containment measures and travel entry restrictions had successfully limited the spread of coronavirus in the United States.



It brings the number of cases in the country to 60, including the 45 cases among Americans who were repatriated from Wuhan, China — the epicenter of the outbreak — and the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was overwhelmed by the virus after it docked in Japan.



Though C.D.C. officials said it was possible the patient was exposed to a returning traveler who was infected, the new case appears to be one of community spread — one in which the source of infection is unknown.

“The thing that would immediately make all of us uneasy is if this person has no direct contact with someone who comes from an affected country,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University.

“That would suggest there are other undetected cases out there, and we have already started some low-grade transmission.”

Public health officials said the infected individual was a resident of Solano County, Calif., and was receiving medical care in Sacramento County, but they have not disclosed any other information to protect the patient’s privacy.

Doctors in the patient’s community may want to expand testing for the coronavirus among their patients in order to identify other infected individuals there, Dr. Schaffner said.

“Physicians are going to want to start testing everybody with a fever and a cough,” he said. “They’re going to want to do that and the patients are going to want to do that.”

Right now, however, testing capacity is limited in the United States.

The C.D.C. developed a diagnostic test and distributed testing kits to local health departments around the country.

But the kits were flawed, and the agency must manufacture new ones. Although a dozen states are capable of testing for coronavirus infection, confirmatory tests must still be done by the C.D.C., a process that can take days.
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massive_field_goal
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by massive_field_goal »

OK, so universities in Australia, who are highly dependent on Chinese students for revenue, are subsidising said students to spend two weeks """quarantine""" in Thailand before returning to study, in order to circumvent direct flights from China. the government is aware of this and at one point encouraged this method of circumvention.
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kiwinoz
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by kiwinoz »

In California 8,000 are in self quarantine. The number tested ? 400 There are only about a dozen place in the USA at best that can test for it and currently predictions are based on data analysis of negative test results for flu etc. The question is if you have it in the US how will you pay for your two weeks in ICU etc?
Sundy
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Sundy »

kiwinoz wrote:In California 8,000 are in self quarantine. The number tested ? 400 There are only about a dozen place in the USA at best that can test for it and currently predictions are based on data analysis of negative test results for flu etc. The question is if you have it in the US how will you pay for your two weeks in ICU etc?

Also a question for anyone travelling, it's highly unlikely travel insurance companies will pay out for claims relating to corona virus.
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AlanBengio
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by AlanBengio »

Sundy wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:In California 8,000 are in self quarantine. The number tested ? 400 There are only about a dozen place in the USA at best that can test for it and currently predictions are based on data analysis of negative test results for flu etc. The question is if you have it in the US how will you pay for your two weeks in ICU etc?

Also a question for anyone travelling, it's highly unlikely travel insurance companies will pay out for claims relating to corona virus.
The Italians who had been evacuated by Wuhan trough Italian Military airplanes reported that the Americans did evacuate only the diplomatica, and that all other US citizens either had to pay for a private fly or had to pay the government if they wanted to fly back. Some of their US friends stayed in Wuhan because of that.

Edit - they reported it was a bit of a shock to their US friends witnessing the Italians sending Military personnel to rescue them whereas they were left behind by their government.
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Sandstorm
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Sandstorm »

feckwanker wrote:
paddyor wrote:
feckwanker wrote:So one of my friends who I traveled home with from Italy on Monday is being brought in for testing as his cough has gotten worse - fingers crossed :uhoh:
A Garda by the name of Eoin, works in Pearse street?

Clayton hotel on Pearse street been cordoned off by lads in hazmat apparently.
Nope. A few of us in the south-east went skiing in Lombardy at the weekend. One of the lads got a cough when he came back which he claims steadily got worse over the day today. Rang the HSE who told him to come to the hospital and wait outside in the car and someone would come out to swab him and he could go home.

So you can imagine his surprise when two doctors in full hazmat suits came out and brought him in for testing. I really, really hope he gets the all clear as if he has it, the rest of us definitely do too.
Charlie on tour :lol:
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Flockwitt
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Flockwitt »

Japan has instructed their schools not to hold any activities that bring people together. My daughter's school trip to Japan has just been canceled. I'd say the Olympics are starting to look pretty rocky...
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Flockwitt
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Flockwitt »

Sundy wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:In California 8,000 are in self quarantine. The number tested ? 400 There are only about a dozen place in the USA at best that can test for it and currently predictions are based on data analysis of negative test results for flu etc. The question is if you have it in the US how will you pay for your two weeks in ICU etc?

Also a question for anyone travelling, it's highly unlikely travel insurance companies will pay out for claims relating to corona virus.
Pandemic's aren't typically covered. Though in some countries the government might assist if they officially ban travel.

For the USA don't panic, renowned health expert VP Pence has been put in charge of the devil's work coronavirus.
bimboman
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by bimboman »

AlanBengio wrote:
Sundy wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:In California 8,000 are in self quarantine. The number tested ? 400 There are only about a dozen place in the USA at best that can test for it and currently predictions are based on data analysis of negative test results for flu etc. The question is if you have it in the US how will you pay for your two weeks in ICU etc?

Also a question for anyone travelling, it's highly unlikely travel insurance companies will pay out for claims relating to corona virus.
The Italians who had been evacuated by Wuhan trough Italian Military airplanes reported that the Americans did evacuate only the diplomatica, and that all other US citizens either had to pay for a private fly or had to pay the government if they wanted to fly back. Some of their US friends stayed in Wuhan because of that.

Edit - they reported it was a bit of a shock to their US friends witnessing the Italians sending Military personnel to rescue them whereas they were left behind by their government.

Looks like that Italian decision was well handled.....
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Kiwias
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by Kiwias »

Flockwitt wrote:Japan has instructed their schools not to hold any activities that bring people together. My daughter's school trip to Japan has just been canceled. I'd say the Olympics are starting to look pretty rocky...
Osaka and Chiba have announced that primary and junior high schools are to be closed for two weeks from now
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CM11
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by CM11 »

Kids are generally the spreaders of viruses but they seem to be largely unaffected by this compared to the adult population?

Are they just getting mild symptoms - and therefore being a higher risk for transfer as they might think it's something else?
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AlanBengio
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Re: China virus cases triple as infection spreads

Post by AlanBengio »

bimboman wrote:
AlanBengio wrote:
Sundy wrote:
kiwinoz wrote:In California 8,000 are in self quarantine. The number tested ? 400 There are only about a dozen place in the USA at best that can test for it and currently predictions are based on data analysis of negative test results for flu etc. The question is if you have it in the US how will you pay for your two weeks in ICU etc?

Also a question for anyone travelling, it's highly unlikely travel insurance companies will pay out for claims relating to corona virus.
The Italians who had been evacuated by Wuhan trough Italian Military airplanes reported that the Americans did evacuate only the diplomatica, and that all other US citizens either had to pay for a private fly or had to pay the government if they wanted to fly back. Some of their US friends stayed in Wuhan because of that.

Edit - they reported it was a bit of a shock to their US friends witnessing the Italians sending Military personnel to rescue them whereas they were left behind by their government.

Looks like that Italian decision was well handled.....
Of course it was - all quarantined after in a military base in Rome.
Rome does no have cases BTW an none of those in Whuang was a farmer living in Veneto
:roll:
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