Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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piquant
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by piquant »

Saint wrote:
District nurses (such as Mrs Saint) have been given little to no advice and are just expected to continue to visit patients without checking anything first.
Shocking

Also still no advice on how to self-isolate those who need assistance washing, dressing, going to bed... not for the carers or patients
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

echo wrote:The below was sent to me by my brother.

He's the CEO of the world's largest non-government public health organisation. His epidemiologists say it is a good summary.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

:thumbup:

I reckon we close school from next week now. Then tighter measure the week following.
merlin the happy pig
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by merlin the happy pig »

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

This seems like a pretty solid analysis of the likely actual number of cases vs the official number.

Australia with 149 cases is likely to have approx 10 times that number infected but not showing symptoms yet.

Highlights the effectiveness of flattening the curve in reducing the eventual death toll from 5% where hospitals are overwhelmed, to 0.5% where treatment is optimal.

In Australia for example, if 50% get it, 5% mortality is approx 50,000 deaths. 0.5% is 5,000.

Now is pretty clearly the time to start social distancing in Aus, and very soon in NZ.
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Saint wrote:Local GPs surgery has effectively shut down; they doing all initial consults over the phone and only allowing people in for an in person appointment once they're satisfied it;s not Covid related. GPs are refusing to make house visits

District nurses (such as Mrs Saint) have been given little to no advice and are just expected to continue to visit patients without checking anything first.

Private vs public businesses.


Hope MrS Saint ok.
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Mahoney
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Mahoney »

Anyone want to take bets on how many times that medium article gets posted over the next two days?
DrSnow
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DrSnow »

District nurses (such as Mrs Saint) have been given little to no advice and are just expected to continue to visit patients without checking anything first.
Let's hope that after all this is over the medical professionals of the world get the credit they deserve. Amazing people, really.
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DraadkarD
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DraadkarD »

South Africa on 17 now.

5 Provinces.
First local transmission recorded in the Free State :uhoh:
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Saint
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Saint »

bimboman wrote:
Saint wrote:Local GPs surgery has effectively shut down; they doing all initial consults over the phone and only allowing people in for an in person appointment once they're satisfied it;s not Covid related. GPs are refusing to make house visits

District nurses (such as Mrs Saint) have been given little to no advice and are just expected to continue to visit patients without checking anything first.

Private vs public businesses.


Hope MrS Saint ok.
She should be OK - has a thermonuclear powered immune system. Very real problem is that 80% of district nurses have kids at school, so when schools shut down there's going to be major problems
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crash 669
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by crash 669 »

Mahoney wrote:Anyone want to take bets on how many times that medium article gets posted over the next two days?
In general or just on this thread?

I reckon 12 times over the next 4 pages.
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Lemoentjie
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Lemoentjie »

DraadkarD wrote:South Africa on 17 now.

5 Provinces.
First local transmission recorded in the Free State :uhoh:
There'll be community transmission in Congo soon too. Will be devastating.
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Edinburgh01
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Edinburgh01 »

Saint wrote:Local GPs surgery has effectively shut down; they doing all initial consults over the phone and only allowing people in for an in person appointment once they're satisfied it;s not Covid related. GPs are refusing to make house visits

District nurses (such as Mrs Saint) have been given little to no advice and are just expected to continue to visit patients without checking anything first.
My GP surgery asked me in for an annual check up next week. They did not even mention the virus.

Edit
I have just had a look at my GPS website. There is advice on what to do if you think you have Coronavirus, but they do say that other than that, they are carrying on as normal.
Last edited by Edinburgh01 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
Rugby2023
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Rugby2023 »

British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston

The key phrase we all need to understand is “herd immunity” – which is what happens to a group of people or animals when they develop sufficient antibodies to be resistant to a disease.

The strategy of the British government in minimising the impact of Covid-19 is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity
Oh joy :|
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message #2527204
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

echo wrote:The below was sent to me by my brother.

He's the CEO of the world's largest non-government public health organisation. His epidemiologists say it is a good summary.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca
Thanks for that 👍
backrow
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by backrow »

CM11 wrote:
backrow wrote:on radio this morning it said Korea has started to slow down in new cases - is this right ?

and what is the UK latest number, 450 ?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/

South Korea playing this perfectly.

66 deaths - we are playing catchup it seems.
Glad they seem to be slowing down.
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crash 669
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by crash 669 »

Rugby2023 wrote:
British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston

The key phrase we all need to understand is “herd immunity” – which is what happens to a group of people or animals when they develop sufficient antibodies to be resistant to a disease.

The strategy of the British government in minimising the impact of Covid-19 is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity
Oh joy :|
There's one quite important stage of that process they're not mentioning.
Yer Man
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Yer Man »

CM11 wrote:
backrow wrote:on radio this morning it said Korea has started to slow down in new cases - is this right ?

and what is the UK latest number, 450 ?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/

South Korea playing this perfectly.
We're so far behind the timeline in other countries still, a long way to go to reach the worst of it.


Looking at France, did I read that right - their death rate vs recovery rate is now 75% vs 25%!

South Korea had the two lines come together (presumably the worst point) and then diverge again as they got on top of it.
Please tell me there's an error in the French analysis?
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Mahoney
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Mahoney »

crash 669 wrote:
Rugby2023 wrote:
British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston

The key phrase we all need to understand is “herd immunity” – which is what happens to a group of people or animals when they develop sufficient antibodies to be resistant to a disease.

The strategy of the British government in minimising the impact of Covid-19 is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity
Oh joy :|
There's one quite important stage of that process they're not mentioning.
I don't understand the point of the statement; we're going to get herd immunity whether the government wants it or not, because people are going to carry on catching it until we've got herd immunity.

The question is how unpleasant the process of getting herd immunity is. How many people die, in how short a period, and whether they do so after normal standards of care or flat on their fronts unable to breathe in a hospital corridor or at home, and what the effect on the rest of us is.
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echo
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by echo »

crash 669 wrote:
echo wrote:The below was sent to me by my brother.

He's the CEO of the world's largest non-government public health organisation. His epidemiologists say it is a good summary.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca
I was just reading the very same article. Interesting stuff, and seems well researched but not my field at all so can't judge.

Reckon this is my last day in work before we all get sent home - since we're a national museum we're prime vector for the virus and the pressure is building for a shut down. Can't do anything till we're told by the gov though.
I should add that in addition to signing off over $100 million to accelerate Covid research he closed their head office in Seattle over a week ago.
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Yer Man wrote:
CM11 wrote:
backrow wrote:on radio this morning it said Korea has started to slow down in new cases - is this right ?

and what is the UK latest number, 450 ?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/

South Korea playing this perfectly.
We're so far behind the timeline in other countries still, a long way to go to reach the worst of it.


Looking at France, did I read that right - their death rate vs recovery rate is now 75% vs 25%!

South Korea had the two lines come together (presumably the worst point) and then diverge again as they got on top of it.
Please tell me there's an error in the French analysis?
At the beginning that's what happens because it takes a while to recover and they probably won't bother testing the mild cases for a while. Only 12 are marked down as recovered in France.
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Mahoney
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Mahoney »

Yer Man wrote:
CM11 wrote:
backrow wrote:on radio this morning it said Korea has started to slow down in new cases - is this right ?

and what is the UK latest number, 450 ?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/

South Korea playing this perfectly.
We're so far behind the timeline in other countries still, a long way to go to reach the worst of it.


Looking at France, did I read that right - their death rate vs recovery rate is now 75% vs 25%!

South Korea had the two lines come together (presumably the worst point) and then diverge again as they got on top of it.
Please tell me there's an error in the French analysis?
During the exponential growth you'd expect a period where hardly anyone has recovered (takes 2+ weeks, and they'll be cautious about declaring a recovery) whereas there's no doubt someone has died & it can happen much quicker, so they get reported early. Anyone in Europe who has now recovered caught it _very_ early. You need to look at the recovered as a percentage of declared cases 2-3 weeks ago.

I hope.
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BlackMac
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by BlackMac »

Saint wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Saint wrote:Local GPs surgery has effectively shut down; they doing all initial consults over the phone and only allowing people in for an in person appointment once they're satisfied it;s not Covid related. GPs are refusing to make house visits

District nurses (such as Mrs Saint) have been given little to no advice and are just expected to continue to visit patients without checking anything first.

Private vs public businesses.


Hope MrS Saint ok.
She should be OK - has a thermonuclear powered immune system. Very real problem is that 80% of district nurses have kids at school, so when schools shut down there's going to be major problems
My wife is a theatre nurse. They dealt with their first suspected coronavirus case last night and she appears to have had no more than a flimsy open sided face mask to protect her. It will not be confirmed until later on tonight but in the meantime she is home with us. :?
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Ireland currently has a 100% death rate, for example. It's meaningless until you have a lot more recovered cases.
Mick Mannock
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Mick Mannock »

Mog The Almighty wrote:
Derwyn wrote:Image

But going from I have heard I am also joining the prepping gang. No sense in waiting for the lock down.
Some preparation is sensible of course. We went out and bought enough canned and dried foods to see us through for about two weeks. That is what the experts are recommending we all do.
Sensible stuff.
Yer Man
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Yer Man »

CM11 wrote:At the beginning that's what happens because it takes a while to recover and they probably won't bother testing the mild cases for a while. Only 12 are marked down as recovered in France.
:thumbup:

I had a feeling that it was a case of what they were counting rather than how many were counted in some countries.
Yer Man
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Yer Man »

CM11 wrote:Ireland currently has a 100% death rate, for example. It's meaningless until you have a lot more recovered cases.
God clearly doesn't approve of you lot voting for the Shinners :thumbdown:
sockwithaticket
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by sockwithaticket »

People have gone all out with the anti-bacterial hand wash stuff (friend's sister posting on facebook all about the 5l tub she got hold of; prompted me to finally delete her) but as this is a virus am I right in thinking it'll have a negligible impact on their chances of contracting it?
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message #2527204
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

Rugby2023 wrote:
British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston

The key phrase we all need to understand is “herd immunity” – which is what happens to a group of people or animals when they develop sufficient antibodies to be resistant to a disease.

The strategy of the British government in minimising the impact of Covid-19 is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity
Oh joy :|
That's the whole world's strategy.
It is incurable.
You can't isolate a whole country for ever.
Yer Man
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Yer Man »

sockwithaticket wrote:People have gone all out with the anti-bacterial hand wash stuff (friend's sister posting on facebook all about the 5l tub she got hold of; prompted me to finally delete her) but as this is a virus am I right in thinking it'll have a negligible impact on their chances of contracting it?
Depends on how many people you meet, and whether or not you immediately rush off and re-wash every time you come in contact with someone.
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Yer Man wrote:
sockwithaticket wrote:People have gone all out with the anti-bacterial hand wash stuff (friend's sister posting on facebook all about the 5l tub she got hold of; prompted me to finally delete her) but as this is a virus am I right in thinking it'll have a negligible impact on their chances of contracting it?
Depends on how many people you meet, and whether or not you immediately rush off and re-wash every time you come in contact with someone.
Anti bacterial will do nothing different to normal soap, I believe. People are confusing hand sanitiser with anti bacterial hand-wash. It's the alcohol content that helps in the former.
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Sandstorm
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Sandstorm »

Saint wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Saint wrote:Local GPs surgery has effectively shut down; they doing all initial consults over the phone and only allowing people in for an in person appointment once they're satisfied it;s not Covid related. GPs are refusing to make house visits

District nurses (such as Mrs Saint) have been given little to no advice and are just expected to continue to visit patients without checking anything first.

Private vs public businesses.


Hope MrS Saint ok.
She should be OK - has a thermonuclear powered immune system. Very real problem is that 80% of district nurses have kids at school, so when schools shut down there's going to be major problems
I think this global pandemic is a good example where regular childcare duties go out the window. If you have to leave your 7 and 11 year old at home with the Internet, kettle and car keys while you go to work to save elderly patients with respiratory problems, then you go to work!
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hermie
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by hermie »

sockwithaticket wrote:People have gone all out with the anti-bacterial hand wash stuff (friend's sister posting on facebook all about the 5l tub she got hold of; prompted me to finally delete her) but as this is a virus am I right in thinking it'll have a negligible impact on their chances of contracting it?
No that should kill the virus, that's why cleaning surfaces and washing hands is so highly recommended. Even if this wasn't the case (it is but even if it wasn't) what could make what are usually mild symptoms into something potentially lethal would be if you were to catch a bacterial infection (such as pneumonia) on top of it.

Edit: sorry yeah the anti-bacterial is probably no better than normal soap or handwash as statto points out.
Last edited by hermie on Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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message #2527204
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

Heard that one of the teachers at a local primary school who was self isolating is now in a hospital pod.

All the parents of those kids will likely have it.

Fingers crossed. Touch wood. Etc
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Lemoentjie
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Lemoentjie »

sockwithaticket wrote:People have gone all out with the anti-bacterial hand wash stuff (friend's sister posting on facebook all about the 5l tub she got hold of; prompted me to finally delete her) but as this is a virus am I right in thinking it'll have a negligible impact on their chances of contracting it?
Minimal amount, if I'm correct when I read that most transmissions are airborne.
Gwenno
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Gwenno »

Luckily for us we have been vetting all our requests for appointments by a telephone triage system, so the number that pitch up ill is much less. Of course there are all those appointments with the nurse for chronic disease management that were made weeks and months ago. I believe that most of these do very little in the short term (and possibly long!) and should be postponed indefinitely. We had a long meeting last night but couldn't agree on that. Most of us agree that our rôles would be most effective as triage. While it's true that none of us is likely to die, two weeks self isolation will soon deplete us to a skeleton force. If we can ensure that most people get their essential medication, and that we deal with real non virus related emergencies safely that is all we can hope for. There will be tragedies however because there will be a large number of relatively sick people at home un observed that may die of something completely unrelated to the virus.
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Tehui
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Tehui »

I've noticed that the threat of contracting the Coronavirus hasn't improved the hygiene practices of young self-absorbed men at my local gym.
Nolanator
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

https://twitter.com/tsf_podcast/status/ ... 8144611330

Good man Klopp. :lol:


How are people so fucking thick?
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Odval
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Odval »

Same rates of contagion and death as in Italy here. Schools are closed, meetings over 50 people are banned… but the fecking bishop has been granted the authorization to organize a traditional procession, and nobody wants to re-schedule the elections set on Sunday.
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bobbity
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bobbity »

Odval wrote:Same rates of contagion and death as in Italy here. Schools are closed, meetings over 50 people are banned… but the fecking bishop has been granted the authorization to organize a traditional procession, and nobody wants to re-schedule the elections set on Sunday.
Don't worry, US evangelicals are encouraging mass gatherings to show the power of prayer
November2019
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by November2019 »

Bindi wrote:Why the fudge is everyone buying canned foods?

My panic buying today was:
1 whole grass-fed rump
1 kg mince
1 kg sausages
1 kg marinated chicken wings.

Fruit and veg can still be delivered.

The power is still going to be on. Use your fucken freezers.
You don't understand, people's freezers are full of stuff they either don't want to eat, like bags of frozen gooseberries or of stuff that's been in there for years and may or may not be safe to eat. There's only ever a little bit of room at the top for ice cream and maybe a packet of mince and of you weigh down the lid, maybe a pack of fishfingers
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Diego
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Diego »

Well Denmark is shitting itself. Luckily I did my prepping a few hours before the big announcement that everything was closing :thumbup:
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