Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

[forrester]

German rates of death and critical are way ahead of everyone else. Even South Korea.

So what is Forrester saying, then?[/quote]

I’m not saying anything, just wondering why their death rate looks so low.[/quote]
Cm11 just said it's worse than everyone else...[/quote]

I assumed by way ahead he meant better, not higher. Or is he looking at closed cases only?

[Botha Boy]

Irelands problem is several orders of magnitude less than Chinas

Talk to me in 3 weeks time

Even taking CMs point, 60 people is probably adequate when we have only had 90 confirmed cases.

But not, if you not testing your general population.

We are only testing folks being hospitalised. We have no idea how much virus is actually present in the community. This is the same weakness the US has due to its lack of testing. We are under-reporting the problem and continue the massive community transfer of the virus.

We need to have and look to be rolling out massive COVID-19 testing in the community as the next step to find those effected and isolate them from contaminating anyone else. There is no vaccine or cure, so we must continue to contain the virus ...

[RodneyRegis]

The Spanish government is poised to declare a 15-day national lockdown on Monday to battle coronavirus.
Under the decree being finalised, people would be allowed out only for emergencies, to buy food, or for work.

The bars were heaving in Seville last week!

So you can go to work and the shops ? That’s not a lock down.

It's ridiculous. It's pretty much the opposite of a lock down. 'Your staff have no excuse not to show up'.

[message #2527204]

Fine. but at least try and work out when you reach critical levels. Telling everyone to self-isolate and making no attempt to test them is not the way to do that.

How can you test 60 million people?

What has that got to do with anything?

Test people who say they think they have the virus.

So how do you do 70 million tests?

Why would you want to? People are at home and they either get better, like from a cold, or they have to go into hospital and can be tested.

[Rugby2023]

The theory of the herd immunity is scientifically very weak if faced in the way UK is claiming to face..no1 knows wether this virus, once you heal, keeps you immune and for how long..this is a nonsense and puts at high risk hundred thousand ppl worldwide! I'd say milions

When you are immune, you have immunity. That's how it works.

For a while?

SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus in humans and there is still much that we need to learn about how it affects the human immune system. Because it is so new, we do not yet know how long any protection generated through infection will last. Some other viruses in the Coronavirus family, such as those that cause common colds, tend to induce immunity that is relatively short lived, at around three months. However, these viruses have co-evolved with the human immune system over thousands of years meaning they may well have developed methods to manipulate our immune responses. With the novel SARS-CoV-2, the situation may be very different but we urgently need more research looking at the immune responses of people who have recovered from infection to be sure.”

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-res ... sars-cov-2

[iarmhiman]

So if we follow the curve of Italy we're looking at 1,666 confirmed infections and about 100 deaths.

I reckon we'll be well below that.

[Sefton]

Just read about the yellow vests in Paris, what a shower of narcissistic arseholes.

[Botha Boy]

Just read about the yellow vests in Paris, what a shower of narcissistic arseholes.

Link ?

[iarmhiman]

1 death and 39 new cases in Ireland. Jump of 19 from yesterday

[Duff Paddy]

Irelands problem is several orders of magnitude less than Chinas

Talk to me in 3 weeks time

Even taking CMs point, 60 people is probably adequate when we have only had 90 confirmed cases.

Cammy the experts were on the late late last night saying that it takes all 60 about 2 days just to contact trace a handful of people. We are nowhere near ready for this.

[Sefton]

Just read about the yellow vests in Paris, what a shower of narcissistic arseholes.

Link ?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.fran ... -elections

[Wallah]

Just read about the yellow vests in Paris, what a shower of narcissistic arseholes.

Link ?

https://www.france24.com/en/20200314-fr ... -elections

[message #2527204]

The Spanish government is poised to declare a 15-day national lockdown on Monday to battle coronavirus.
Under the decree being finalised, people would be allowed out only for emergencies, to buy food, or for work.

The bars were heaving in Seville last week!

So you can go to work and the shops ? That’s not a lock down.

It's ridiculous. It's pretty much the opposite of a lock down. 'Your staff have no excuse not to show up'.

It's the same as Italy. You're trying to flatten the curve, not lock people up .... Yet.
People have to work to get paid, and get food delivered and sold, keep the electricity on, etc

[JM2K6]

The new numbers today put us where Italy was 2 weeks ago, right? Bit concerning given the Govt stated we were 4 weeks behind.

[CM11]

Cm11 just said it's worse than everyone else...

Way ahead from a positive pov, which was his point. Their death plus critical is ridiculously low.

[Double]

What is happening in Germany? Only 8 deaths so far. France have fewer cases yet x10 number of fatalities.

The German rates seem more level with us than with France

German rates of death and critical are way ahead of everyone else. Even South Korea.

So what is Forrester saying, then?

I’m not saying anything, just wondering why their death rate looks so low.

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. If someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be.

[DrSnow]

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. While someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be

That is f**ked up.

[YOYO]

2nd death in Ireland (ROI) announced.

Hard to put this into context. It may be the calm before the storm.

[JM2K6]

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. If someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be.

IIRC that was also the Chinese approach until they binned off the guys in charge of the response and put new people in

[0ber0n]

The theory of the herd immunity is scientifically very weak if faced in the way UK is claiming to face..no1 knows wether this virus, once you heal, keeps you immune and for how long..this is a nonsense and puts at high risk hundred thousand ppl worldwide! I'd say milions

When you are immune, you have immunity. That's how it works.

For a while?

SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus in humans and there is still much that we need to learn about how it affects the human immune system. Because it is so new, we do not yet know how long any protection generated through infection will last. Some other viruses in the Coronavirus family, such as those that cause common colds, tend to induce immunity that is relatively short lived, at around three months. However, these viruses have co-evolved with the human immune system over thousands of years meaning they may well have developed methods to manipulate our immune responses. With the novel SARS-CoV-2, the situation may be very different but we urgently need more research looking at the immune responses of people who have recovered from infection to be sure.”

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-res ... sars-cov-2

[Double]

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. If someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be.

IIRC that was also the Chinese approach until they binned off the guys in charge of the response and put new people in

I think it's Germany's existing approach to all diseases, so in their case it's probably not politically motivated.

[Mick Mannock]

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. If someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be.

IIRC that was also the Chinese approach until they binned off the guys in charge of the response and put new people in

I understand that is the Chinese approach with flu deaths too.

[Botha Boy]

Just read about the yellow vests in Paris, what a shower of narcissistic arseholes.

Link ?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.fran ... -elections

Thanks for the Links, folks.

In the terms of the time-honoured board game ‘Colditz’, I would just roll the dice at this point and ‘Shoot-to-Kill’ ... gob-shites ...

[0ber0n]

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. While someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be

That is f**ked up.

..just to save German economy..pathetic stuff

[Raggs]

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. If someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be.

IIRC that was also the Chinese approach until they binned off the guys in charge of the response and put new people in

I think it's Germany's existing approach to all diseases, so in their case it's probably not politically motivated.

Very useful to know. Thank you.

[forrester]

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. If someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be.

IIRC that was also the Chinese approach until they binned off the guys in charge of the response and put new people in

That makes sense now, that caused the huge spike when they reclassified everyone.

[TheFrog]

That is excellent.

And potentially irrelevant. Different disease, different effects and requirements. Shutting schools for Spanish flu was huge, as it most severely effected children, who are obviously clumped together in schools. Whereas this is quite the opposite, to the point where children being generally asymptomatic, may not be contributing that much to spread.

Could you please further develop your statement because I fail to grasp why this would be irrelevant now. Social distancing is more than just shutting schools down.

Also, currently, data seem to indicate that youths are less likely to be infected according to certain sources. But does that relate to a proper sampling of the population (i.e statistically relevant size sample) who has been tested again and again and monitored? Or is it based on data available which, we know, are imperfect because not everybody gets tested, even less so people developing no symptoms.

[message #2527204]

Germany only lists deaths as coronavirus related if the deceased had no underlying conditions. If someone in the UK with lung cancer dies with coronavirus, they are listed as part of the statistics, whereas the same person dying in Germany would not be.

IIRC that was also the Chinese approach until they binned off the guys in charge of the response and put new people in

I think it's Germany's existing approach to all diseases, so in their case it's probably not politically motivated.

Very useful to know. Thank you.

Surely that makes it much harder for them to monitor this epidemic.

[Raggs]

That is excellent.

And potentially irrelevant. Different disease, different effects and requirements. Shutting schools for Spanish flu was huge, as it most severely effected children, who are obviously clumped together in schools. Whereas this is quite the opposite, to the point where children being generally asymptomatic, may not be contributing that much to spread.

Could you please further develop your statement because I fail to grasp why this would be irrelevant now. Social distancing is more than just shutting schools down.

Also, currently, data seem to indicate that youths are less likely to be infected according to certain sources. But does that relate to a proper sampling of the population (i.e statistically relevant size sample) who has been tested again and again and monitored? Or is it based on data available which, we know, are imperfect because not everybody gets tested, even less so people developing no symptoms.

It doesn't mean social distancing won't work, but a different disease will require different approaches as to what is successful. Obviously allowing no interaction will always work, but it's simply not practical. Spanish flu hit the young, so they'd be killing each other quickly in schools coughing on each other, then bringing it home to family.

I don't know if children are less likely to get infected, but they are more likely to be asymptomatic, no coughing means potentially less transmission.

[RodneyRegis]

Taking South Korea as the poster boy for best tested, and likely trustworthy, whilst also having a lot of cases, it would seem that roughly 1/125 end up in a serious condition.

Can't remember the skew of age ranges we've seen, but fairly sure it's massively towards over 60s, so maybe 1/1000 or less, "young" people.

Super. So 60% of 40m 'young people' in the UK is... Let's say 20,000, conservative, to get our herd immunity?

[message #2527204]

That is excellent.

And potentially irrelevant. Different disease, different effects and requirements. Shutting schools for Spanish flu was huge, as it most severely effected children, who are obviously clumped together in schools. Whereas this is quite the opposite, to the point where children being generally asymptomatic, may not be contributing that much to spread.

Could you please further develop your statement because I fail to grasp why this would be irrelevant now. Social distancing is more than just shutting schools down.

Also, currently, data seem to indicate that youths are less likely to be infected according to certain sources. But does that relate to a proper sampling of the population (i.e statistically relevant size sample) who has been tested again and again and monitored? Or is it based on data available which, we know, are imperfect because not everybody gets tested, even less so people developing no symptoms.

It doesn't mean social distancing won't work, but a different disease will require different approaches as to what is successful. Obviously allowing no interaction will always work, but it's simply not practical. Spanish flu hit the young, so they'd be killing each other quickly in schools coughing on each other, then bringing it home to family.

I don't know if children are less likely to get infected, but they are more likely to be asymptomatic, no coughing means potentially less transmission.

Social distancing as a form of control will only work when people are scared enough. Otherwise, as they are saying in parts of Italy, they take no notice.
Many are already doing it before it's decreed, some will take no notice anyway. When people start reading the obituaries, and personally know people badly affected, then social distancing will work.
People in general are tossers.

[Clouseau]

Just read about the yellow vests in Paris, what a shower of narcissistic arseholes.

Link ?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.fran ... -elections

https://twitter.com/ClementLanot/status ... 4471921664

Scum.

[RodneyRegis]

The theory of the herd immunity is scientifically very weak if faced in the way UK is claiming to face..no1 knows wether this virus, once you heal, keeps you immune and for how long..this is a nonsense and puts at high risk hundred thousand ppl worldwide! I'd say milions

When you are immune, you have immunity. That's how it works.

Well yes. But do you become immune by catching this? I'm glad I've had a cold because I definitely won't get one ever again.

[PornDog]

That is excellent.

And potentially irrelevant. Different disease, different effects and requirements. Shutting schools for Spanish flu was huge, as it most severely effected children, who are obviously clumped together in schools. Whereas this is quite the opposite, to the point where children being generally asymptomatic, may not be contributing that much to spread.

Could you please further develop your statement because I fail to grasp why this would be irrelevant now. Social distancing is more than just shutting schools down.

Also, currently, data seem to indicate that youths are less likely to be infected according to certain sources. But does that relate to a proper sampling of the population (i.e statistically relevant size sample) who has been tested again and again and monitored? Or is it based on data available which, we know, are imperfect because not everybody gets tested, even less so people developing no symptoms.

It doesn't mean social distancing won't work, but a different disease will require different approaches as to what is successful. Obviously allowing no interaction will always work, but it's simply not practical. Spanish flu hit the young, so they'd be killing each other quickly in schools coughing on each other, then bringing it home to family.

I don't know if children are less likely to get infected, but they are more likely to be asymptomatic, no coughing means potentially less transmission.

Ehm I'm not sure your right on that.

Unlike other 'normal' flu, which would affect the young, old and otherwise weak much more severely, Spanish flu had a much higher proportional death rate in otherwise healthy adults. It cause an overheating of the immune system which in turn caused death. In effect healthy people were killed by their own immune systems.

[RodneyRegis]

That's the elephant in the room when it comes to an extended lock down. The Chinese have been at it in Wuhan for almost two months now. Aside from the stories of families being boarded up, they've also deployed quite intrusive apps and other tech to monitor the movement of every individual in the key areas. They're only just getting a handle on it now. With no idea what will happen as they relax restrictions.

If we attempt something remotely similar without the Draconian add ons, it's going to take longer and be less effective. No question of that. At what point does it crash our economies, demolish supply chains and diminish resources to the point we are double f'cked?

The issue in China and Italy was that it had got too large a grip so Draconian measures had to be implemented. South Korea knew it was coming and have it delayed while being able to function as a society (I believe?). It didn't get a huge hold there. The worry with what the UK are doing is that they'll realise too late that the time to pinch was yesterday. I hope not for their sake.

South Korea were tracking credit cards and using cctv to find out who was interacting with others, combined with SARS and the population was suitably terrified to not interact with each other.

China has cameras on all buses and used facial recognition software to contact track those diagnosed with Covid19 and whether other people in the bus subsequently became infected. Some of the data showed a capability for Covid19 infection over 4.5m (6 bus rows) and that the virus could be airborne > 30 minutes. While I can’t confirm that information, the point is this containment problem may be more difficult to deal with than we are currently being advised.

So we need to take conservative precautions immediately rather than making any assumptions which may promote complacent behaviours ...

Very interesting. The Chinese don’t fudge around. Total staff in Ireland dedicated to contact tracing - 60 we are in trouble lads

Indeed. I love this idea that the Chinese appear to have brought cases down with their delay phase, as if the west are going to send out teams to track cases or make people install apps on their phones, use face recognition software and install roadblocks in the next month or so.

[message #2527204]

That is excellent.

And potentially irrelevant. Different disease, different effects and requirements. Shutting schools for Spanish flu was huge, as it most severely effected children, who are obviously clumped together in schools. Whereas this is quite the opposite, to the point where children being generally asymptomatic, may not be contributing that much to spread.

Could you please further develop your statement because I fail to grasp why this would be irrelevant now. Social distancing is more than just shutting schools down.

Also, currently, data seem to indicate that youths are less likely to be infected according to certain sources. But does that relate to a proper sampling of the population (i.e statistically relevant size sample) who has been tested again and again and monitored? Or is it based on data available which, we know, are imperfect because not everybody gets tested, even less so people developing no symptoms.

It doesn't mean social distancing won't work, but a different disease will require different approaches as to what is successful. Obviously allowing no interaction will always work, but it's simply not practical. Spanish flu hit the young, so they'd be killing each other quickly in schools coughing on each other, then bringing it home to family.

I don't know if children are less likely to get infected, but they are more likely to be asymptomatic, no coughing means potentially less transmission.

Ehm I'm not sure your right on that.

Unlike other 'normal' flu, which would affect the young, old and otherwise weak much more severely, Spanish flu had a much higher proportional death rate in otherwise healthy adults. It cause an overheating of the immune system which in turn caused death. In effect healthy people were killed by their own immune systems.

The 'cytokine storm' that is also killing people with covid19

[Raggs]

Taking South Korea as the poster boy for best tested, and likely trustworthy, whilst also having a lot of cases, it would seem that roughly 1/125 end up in a serious condition.

Can't remember the skew of age ranges we've seen, but fairly sure it's massively towards over 60s, so maybe 1/1000 or less, "young" people.

Super. So 60% of 40m 'young people' in the UK is... Let's say 20,000, conservative, to get our herd immunity?

From my completely made up numbers? Sure.

Even then, the two studies brought up are A. From china (who I don't trust) and B. Talked about around 30-50 patients. With a definition of "young" as under 60 years old.

[0ber0n]

The theory of the herd immunity is scientifically very weak if faced in the way UK is claiming to face..no1 knows wether this virus, once you heal, keeps you immune and for how long..this is a nonsense and puts at high risk hundred thousand ppl worldwide! I'd say milions

When you are immune, you have immunity. That's how it works.

Well yes. But do you become immune by catching this? I'm glad I've had a cold because I definitely won't get one ever again.

no scientist can say today that by catching covid19 will make you for ever immune..Instead, as any other coronavirus causing common cold, you are likely to get transitory immunization..we just have to face this possibility and not leave to chance..this is the key concept

[0ber0n]

Ehm I'm not sure your right on that.

Unlike other 'normal' flu, which would affect the young, old and otherwise weak much more severely, Spanish flu had a much higher proportional death rate in otherwise healthy adults. It cause an overheating of the immune system which in turn caused death. In effect healthy people were killed by their own immune systems.
The 'cytokine storm' that is also killing people with covid19

yes..they are using tocilizumab right now in a few hospitals in italy now and we are getting good results in the last days

[RodneyRegis]

The start of the spread isn't really important. Once you get upto critical levels, then you need control, but if you accept it's going to spread, then life as normal is the best way forward at first.

Fine. but at least try and work out when you reach critical levels. Telling everyone to self-isolate and making no attempt to test them is not the way to do that.

How can you test 60 million people?

What has that got to do with anything?

Test people who say they think they have the virus.

So how do you do 70 million tests?

70 million people think they have it?

If people call 111 saying they have the virus, send somebody round to do a test. You don't have to do it today, you don't have to do it tomorrow. But do it sometime. Then if they have it, test their family and people they've been in prolonged contact with, especially the elderly.

Or just test random people who have come back from other countries and show no symptoms....