Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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Duff Paddy
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Duff Paddy »

message #2527204 wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
A model is a model. It depends on the right inputs.
They couldn't model it on coronavirus, because coronavirus was an unknown.
You have to start with some inputs and correct the model as more accurate data becomes available.
I cannot understand why you are trying so hard to defend this. You’re not alone but the others are known Tory fanbois and trolls. It was a major cock up.
I'm not trying hard to defend it. I'm stating it as it is, rather than declaring they used a different model. Like the 'herd immunity' it's just a misunderstanding.
I'd much rather believe the scientific community than Piers f**king Morgan and hysterical twatterati
Ah come on. It didn’t go from an unknown to a known in 48hours - they just realised that they were incorrect when it was pointed out to them.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

fishfoodie wrote:
That's not exactly fair. They modeled what they had a load of data for; year in & year out; & they were able to fine tune the model every year, & look at how flu actually impacted people, & compare with what they modeled.

and they became confident...

and then; at some point, they decided that modeling one, well understood illness, with a shitload of data, allowed them to model different illnesses ... and they fucked that right up !
That sounds a fair bit like it. It goes to the recently issues in Science that one expert thinks they can simply transfer to anther area and be an expert if they have the data. The mechanism and understanding of how things work is just as important. Funny enough people criticism of Dominique Cummings, but that is exactly the sort of complaint he has about British Civil Services, educated people are moved round and assumed they can become experts in their new depts.

Don't get me wrong, the broad idea of the UK plan for the medium term is still gonna be the case, all European countries will head to herd immunity. German are saying so. The issue of course is if you want to wait on the vaccine will you quickly shut down everything each time to prevent herd immunity for a few years to vaccinate for it?
C69
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by C69 »

Duff Paddy wrote:
A model is a model. It depends on the right inputs.
They couldn't model it on coronavirus, because coronavirus was an unknown.
You have to start with some inputs and correct the model as more accurate data becomes available.
I cannot understand why you are trying so hard to defend this. You’re not alone but the others are known Tory fanbois and trolls. It was a major cock up.
There are going to be mistakes. I hope we will learn from them. AnywayI have another fun filled day sorting out Coronavirus. Have just cancelled all outpatient reviews for the forseeable future and just about to check all the ventilators we have are functional. Dusting out some of the older equipment. Not that anyone else will be able to use them.

:uhoh:
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

rfurlong wrote:So the Brits were basing their entire strategy on viral pneumonia Modeling ..... which is only half as debilitating as covid-19

Holeeeey fvck :uhoh:
But it spreads just like a virus of it's kind. There is little to no data about Covid-19 in that regard. The overall medium term strategy is still the same, Germany, the Netherlands etc are all working on the same basis as the British for the medium term. And the British strategy is still allow it to peak in April so the bulk of patients are in the summer rather than the winter.
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DragsterDriver
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
From people in the industry they tell Me They’re not covered, only if the outbreak originates from Their premises.
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DragsterDriver
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

c69 wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
A model is a model. It depends on the right inputs.
They couldn't model it on coronavirus, because coronavirus was an unknown.
You have to start with some inputs and correct the model as more accurate data becomes available.
I cannot understand why you are trying so hard to defend this. You’re not alone but the others are known Tory fanbois and trolls. It was a major cock up.
There are going to be mistakes. I hope we will learn from them. AnywayI have another fun filled day sorting out Coronavirus. Have just cancelled all outpatient reviews for the forseeable future and just about to check all the ventilators we have are functional. Dusting out some of the older equipment. Not that anyone else will be able to use them.

:uhoh:
When c69 is the voice of reason, you micks need a good hard look in the mirror.
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EverReady
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by EverReady »

True Blue wrote:
JM2K6 wrote:Those of you following my tale of woe regarding my comfortable middle class existence as a techie in London will be relieved to know that my CEO has "reviewed the scientific evidence" and is "happy for people to work from home". So happy, in fact, that he's "added 5 days to everyone's work from home allowance" (it starts at 12 days).

Gosh.

#blessed
I have to go to work tomorrow at a university. Funny enough all the senior managers are working from home "until further notice". Apparently I'm "essential" staff but my salary doesn't reflect that. Essential when it suites them I guess....

#America
In my place the admin have been told they have to stay and man phones while all the frontline can fück off home. They are generally from different socio economic backgrounds so this will rumble on for years
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message #2527204
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

Duff Paddy wrote:
message #2527204 wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
A model is a model. It depends on the right inputs.
They couldn't model it on coronavirus, because coronavirus was an unknown.
You have to start with some inputs and correct the model as more accurate data becomes available.
I cannot understand why you are trying so hard to defend this. You’re not alone but the others are known Tory fanbois and trolls. It was a major cock up.
I'm not trying hard to defend it. I'm stating it as it is, rather than declaring they used a different model. Like the 'herd immunity' it's just a misunderstanding.
I'd much rather believe the scientific community than Piers f**king Morgan and hysterical twatterati
Ah come on. It didn’t go from an unknown to a known in 48hours - they just realised that they were incorrect when it was pointed out to them.
I'd imagine the knots only require a small change to have a large effect.
In any case, it's just a question of timing. We always knew we'd escalate self isolation in line with what the Italians did. The hysterics are claiming that it could have been stopped.
Personally, I don't think they wanted to close down quite so early. But they have to handle rising panic as well as the science, the NHS and the economic disaster.
Last edited by message #2527204 on Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

DonBillydeParis wrote:
MrDominator wrote:The Dutch and Swedes are following the same strategy as the British re herd immunity.

A clear divide is opening up between hysterical, panicky, popular superstition Catholic Europe and phlegmatic, stoic, scientific Protestant Europe.

You'd be mad not to bet on the latter.
What about China or South Korea? It looks like epidemia is retreating there and their strategies are closer to that of hysterical catholics, aren't they?
South Korea have the best strategy IMO. Following the Virus money trail so to speak. However it remains to be seen if their strategies allow for a second wave of Coronavirus epidemic to arise later on. The idea anyone can show they got it right or wring now is utterly wrong.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragonKhan »

DragsterDriver wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
From people in the industry they tell Me They’re not covered, only if the outbreak originates from Their premises.
Two people who run bars/music venues I know are fuming with Johnson. He has f**ked over so many places who would have been protected by insurance if he ordered them to close. People don't realise how close many places are to going to the wall of a a bad month or two came. So many are not going to get payouts as it is only a government suggestion, not an order
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happyhooker
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by happyhooker »

DragsterDriver wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
From people in the industry they tell Me They’re not covered, only if the outbreak originates from Their premises.
It seems you can get business interruption insurance at several different levels.

Nobody really knows.
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DragsterDriver
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

happyhooker wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
From people in the industry they tell Me They’re not covered, only if the outbreak originates from Their premises.
It seems you can get business interruption insurance at several different levels.

Nobody really knows.
With aviva cover I have on something I’m not covered for epidemics but this is a pandemic but presume they’ll find a way to screw me.
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RodneyRegis
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by RodneyRegis »

YOYO wrote:
fishfoodie wrote:
YOYO wrote:Who ever lead the modeling effort needs to get the sack.
again; this isn't fair. Most likely the people doing the modeling were told to model Flu, so the NHS could guesstimate how many beds they would need every winter, when the new strain came around; & it probably works really well for that, because people in positions of power have a lot of faith in the model.

but this isn't the flu.

and this isn't an every year event.

what's that quote; 'predicting is hard; especially the future'
I wouldn’t blame the people who did the mathematical modeling part, I was referring to whoever headed up the initiative. The person at the top who signed off the use case for the analysis. Guillotine.
That’s just my own personal opinion. It was a very serious fcuk up.
But if course, it's in the public domain now. The people who want to believe this will all blow over will say that we need to go for herd immunity, and you can be dman sure that Boris won't be saying 'WE f**ked UP, IGNORE WHAT WE SAID COMPLETELY'.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Does anyone really believe that a big “error” was made.? It’s PR for the change of advice without the Government taking blame cynical .....

Mitigation hasn’t changed. Herd immunity hasn’t changed, it’s been judged as unpalatable to be open about.


When this is all done and dusted it will be interesting to what survives.
Last edited by bimboman on Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JM2K6
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by JM2K6 »

Thomas wrote:
JM2K6 wrote:Those of you following my tale of woe regarding my comfortable middle class existence as a techie in London will be relieved to know that my CEO has "reviewed the scientific evidence" and is "happy for people to work from home". So happy, in fact, that he's "added 5 days to everyone's work from home allowance" (it starts at 12 days).

Gosh.

#blessed
You have a work from home allowance? We can do it whenever we want.
New this year!
piquant
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by piquant »

DragsterDriver wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
From people in the industry they tell Me They’re not covered, only if the outbreak originates from Their premises.
It seems you can get business interruption insurance at several different levels.

Nobody really knows.
With aviva cover I have on something I’m not covered for epidemics but this is a pandemic but presume they’ll find a way to screw me.

Even if people are covered many businesses will be forced out of business before insurance companies pay up, so someone down the line might salvage something but cashflow isn't without importance and there is essentially no cashflow for many businesses
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happyhooker
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by happyhooker »

Also, for bars, breweries etc, they've just come through January and Feb, which are their two worst months economically
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blindcider
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by blindcider »

happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
Also depends on when they last renewed, a lot of events insurance renewals done in 2020 will specifically exclude coronavirus as something to pay out on
Last edited by blindcider on Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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RodneyRegis
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by RodneyRegis »

DragonKhan wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
From people in the industry they tell Me They’re not covered, only if the outbreak originates from Their premises.
Two people who run bars/music venues I know are fuming with Johnson. He has f**ked over so many places who would have been protected by insurance if he ordered them to close. People don't realise how close many places are to going to the wall of a a bad month or two came. So many are not going to get payouts as it is only a government suggestion, not an order
OK.

A) did people avoid them last night? I should think they had better takings than a usual Monday.

B) they will be closed today or tomorrow.
piquant
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by piquant »

RodneyRegis wrote:
YOYO wrote:
fishfoodie wrote:
YOYO wrote:Who ever lead the modeling effort needs to get the sack.
again; this isn't fair. Most likely the people doing the modeling were told to model Flu, so the NHS could guesstimate how many beds they would need every winter, when the new strain came around; & it probably works really well for that, because people in positions of power have a lot of faith in the model.

but this isn't the flu.

and this isn't an every year event.

what's that quote; 'predicting is hard; especially the future'
I wouldn’t blame the people who did the mathematical modeling part, I was referring to whoever headed up the initiative. The person at the top who signed off the use case for the analysis. Guillotine.
That’s just my own personal opinion. It was a very serious fcuk up.
But if course, it's in the public domain now. The people who want to believe this will all blow over will say that we need to go for herd immunity, and you can be dman sure that Boris won't be saying 'WE f**ked UP, IGNORE WHAT WE SAID COMPLETELY'.
We still don't know where we are with this, suppose the stay at home message wins through for how long does that hold both in terms of official advice and how the public observe said message, and then how long will some herd immunity take to rise?

If the stay at home message is the required message we could be looking at 6-12 months of individuals/families isolating, maybe longer, and any time we reemerge so will the virus and round we go again.

There are no simple of obvious solutions/strategies to deal with this, any course of action comes with massive downsides
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RodneyRegis
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by RodneyRegis »

piquant wrote:
RodneyRegis wrote:
YOYO wrote:
fishfoodie wrote:
YOYO wrote:Who ever lead the modeling effort needs to get the sack.
again; this isn't fair. Most likely the people doing the modeling were told to model Flu, so the NHS could guesstimate how many beds they would need every winter, when the new strain came around; & it probably works really well for that, because people in positions of power have a lot of faith in the model.

but this isn't the flu.

and this isn't an every year event.

what's that quote; 'predicting is hard; especially the future'
I wouldn’t blame the people who did the mathematical modeling part, I was referring to whoever headed up the initiative. The person at the top who signed off the use case for the analysis. Guillotine.
That’s just my own personal opinion. It was a very serious fcuk up.
But if course, it's in the public domain now. The people who want to believe this will all blow over will say that we need to go for herd immunity, and you can be dman sure that Boris won't be saying 'WE f**ked UP, IGNORE WHAT WE SAID COMPLETELY'.
We still don't know where we are with this, suppose the stay at home message wins through for how long does that hold both in terms of official advice and how the public observe said message, and then how long will some herd immunity take to rise?

If the stay at home message is the required message we could be looking at 6-12 months of individuals/families isolating, maybe longer, and any time we reemerge so will the virus and round we go again.

There are no simple of obvious solutions/strategies to deal with this, any course of action comes with massive downsides
Erm, sure.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by RodneyRegis »

bimboman wrote:Does anyone really believe that a big “error” was made.? It’s PR for the change of advice without the Government taking blame cynical .....

Mitigation hasn’t changed. Herd immunity hasn’t changed, it’s been judged as unpalatable to be open about.


When this is all done and dusted it will be interesting to what survives.
You are incorrigible.
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happyhooker
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by happyhooker »

RodneyRegis wrote:
DragonKhan wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
From people in the industry they tell Me They’re not covered, only if the outbreak originates from Their premises.
Two people who run bars/music venues I know are fuming with Johnson. He has f**ked over so many places who would have been protected by insurance if he ordered them to close. People don't realise how close many places are to going to the wall of a a bad month or two came. So many are not going to get payouts as it is only a government suggestion, not an order
OK.

A) did people avoid them last night? I should think they had better takings than a usual Monday.

B) they will be closed today or tomorrow.
You're wrong with A)
piquant
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by piquant »

RodneyRegis wrote:
piquant wrote:
We still don't know where we are with this, suppose the stay at home message wins through for how long does that hold both in terms of official advice and how the public observe said message, and then how long will some herd immunity take to rise?

If the stay at home message is the required message we could be looking at 6-12 months of individuals/families isolating, maybe longer, and any time we reemerge so will the virus and round we go again.

There are no simple of obvious solutions/strategies to deal with this, any course of action comes with massive downsides
Erm, sure.
I'm simply growing bored of braying loons saying all we need to do is close things down 'cause it makes sense to them at an individual level
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Smutley »

DragonKhan wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
happyhooker wrote:
slick wrote:Does anyone actually KNOW if your average pub or restaurant would be covered by insurance if the gov ordered them to close but not if they close due to the current advice?

The latest bit of hysterical anti government bike on social media is saying that but 2 mates than run bars say they are not covered in either event.
From what I can gather, some types of insurance will pay out on forced closure, but not on this advice to avoid.
From people in the industry they tell Me They’re not covered, only if the outbreak originates from Their premises.
Two people who run bars/music venues I know are fuming with Johnson. He has f**ked over so many places who would have been protected by insurance if he ordered them to close. People don't realise how close many places are to going to the wall of a a bad month or two came. So many are not going to get payouts as it is only a government suggestion, not an order
He's completely out of his depth and looks terrified. Good to know he has the insurance industry's back, though. :uhoh:
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Rugby2023 »

eldanielfire wrote:
DonBillydeParis wrote:
MrDominator wrote:The Dutch and Swedes are following the same strategy as the British re herd immunity.

A clear divide is opening up between hysterical, panicky, popular superstition Catholic Europe and phlegmatic, stoic, scientific Protestant Europe.

You'd be mad not to bet on the latter.
What about China or South Korea? It looks like epidemia is retreating there and their strategies are closer to that of hysterical catholics, aren't they?
South Korea have the best strategy IMO. Following the Virus money trail so to speak. However it remains to be seen if their strategies allow for a second wave of Coronavirus epidemic to arise later on. The idea anyone can show they got it right or wring now is utterly wrong.
Agreed, but can UK still get there? Or is it too late now?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by JM2K6 »

Rugby2023 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
DonBillydeParis wrote:
MrDominator wrote:The Dutch and Swedes are following the same strategy as the British re herd immunity.

A clear divide is opening up between hysterical, panicky, popular superstition Catholic Europe and phlegmatic, stoic, scientific Protestant Europe.

You'd be mad not to bet on the latter.
What about China or South Korea? It looks like epidemia is retreating there and their strategies are closer to that of hysterical catholics, aren't they?
South Korea have the best strategy IMO. Following the Virus money trail so to speak. However it remains to be seen if their strategies allow for a second wave of Coronavirus epidemic to arise later on. The idea anyone can show they got it right or wring now is utterly wrong.
Agreed, but can UK still get there? Or is it too late now?
Impossible now, all hands on deck just to treat people
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

No one has the ability to get to South Korea. Their contact tracing is miles ahead of what we can achieve.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Dark »

A large part of me want's to just get the thing, and get over it.

Cough , bit of a fever and maybe the shits for a couple of weeks.

Don't need to hang round any old people (grandparents, in - laws side overseas. My side brown bread)
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

Rugby2023 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
DonBillydeParis wrote:
MrDominator wrote:The Dutch and Swedes are following the same strategy as the British re herd immunity.

A clear divide is opening up between hysterical, panicky, popular superstition Catholic Europe and phlegmatic, stoic, scientific Protestant Europe.

You'd be mad not to bet on the latter.
What about China or South Korea? It looks like epidemia is retreating there and their strategies are closer to that of hysterical catholics, aren't they?
South Korea have the best strategy IMO. Following the Virus money trail so to speak. However it remains to be seen if their strategies allow for a second wave of Coronavirus epidemic to arise later on. The idea anyone can show they got it right or wring now is utterly wrong.
Agreed, but can UK still get there? Or is it too late now?
I believe South Korea's societal organisation is second to none in a capitalist country. The government did have to threaten a church to get the details but the details exist. In the Uk you'd go through employers and what people are willing to tell.
Yer Man
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Yer Man »

CM11 wrote:Growth factor being going down for days. At 1 yesterday.
It's sort of good news, only problem is we don't know how many people are being tested.
If it's just the ones who are now showing symptoms then there's people who are infected but won't show for another week+.
They are missing from the data.

But any sign of the rate being reduced is better news than if it was going up.
piquant
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by piquant »

CM11 wrote:No one has the ability to get to South Korea. Their contact tracing is miles ahead of what we can achieve.
Of course that's much easier when you stand in line at church to be infected
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Yer Man wrote:
CM11 wrote:Growth factor being going down for days. At 1 yesterday.
It's sort of good news, only problem is we don't know how many people are being tested.
If it's just the ones who are now showing symptoms then there's people who are infected but won't show for another week+.
They are missing from the data.

But any sign of the rate being reduced is better news than if it was going up.
:thumbup:
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Dark
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Dark »

Saw two dudes do the elbow knock thing rather than shaking hands in a lift today.

Was extremely funny and they both looked embarrassed

And so they should.

Not a hand shaker at the best of times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Raggs »

CM11 wrote:
Yer Man wrote:
CM11 wrote:Growth factor being going down for days. At 1 yesterday.
It's sort of good news, only problem is we don't know how many people are being tested.
If it's just the ones who are now showing symptoms then there's people who are infected but won't show for another week+.
They are missing from the data.

But any sign of the rate being reduced is better news than if it was going up.
:thumbup:
As long as the testing strategy has stayed consistent (i.e. hopsitalised cases only), then the growth rate is reliable, regardless of how many are missed.

As long as you are recording a more or less fixed percentage of cases, the growth/fall rate is reflective of the whole population.
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

piquant wrote:
CM11 wrote:No one has the ability to get to South Korea. Their contact tracing is miles ahead of what we can achieve.
Of course that's much easier when you stand in line at church to be infected
:roll:
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camroc1
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by camroc1 »

message #2527204 wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
message #2527204 wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
A model is a model. It depends on the right inputs.
They couldn't model it on coronavirus, because coronavirus was an unknown.
You have to start with some inputs and correct the model as more accurate data becomes available.
I cannot understand why you are trying so hard to defend this. You’re not alone but the others are known Tory fanbois and trolls. It was a major cock up.
I'm not trying hard to defend it. I'm stating it as it is, rather than declaring they used a different model. Like the 'herd immunity' it's just a misunderstanding.
I'd much rather believe the scientific community than Piers f**king Morgan and hysterical twatterati
Ah come on. It didn’t go from an unknown to a known in 48hours - they just realised that they were incorrect when it was pointed out to them.
I'd imagine the knots only require a small change to have a large effect.
In any case, it's just a question of timing. We always knew we'd escalate self isolation in line with what the Italians did. The hysterics are claiming that it could have been stopped.
Personally, I don't think they wanted to close down quite so early. But they have to handle rising panic as well as the science, the NHS and the economic disaster.
We had UK experts on TV saying that Ireland had closed down "too early" and would suffer for that, we even had one loolah tell the UK public that Ireland had to close down early because it "didn't have a health system". We share an open border with part of your jurisdiction that was not following WHO guidelines. And you give out because of a bit of grief on a small chat room.

When officialdom bunkers down over a bad decision, the lies just get bigger and bigger.
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JM2K6
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by JM2K6 »

Raggs wrote:
CM11 wrote:
Yer Man wrote:
CM11 wrote:Growth factor being going down for days. At 1 yesterday.
It's sort of good news, only problem is we don't know how many people are being tested.
If it's just the ones who are now showing symptoms then there's people who are infected but won't show for another week+.
They are missing from the data.

But any sign of the rate being reduced is better news than if it was going up.
:thumbup:
As long as the testing strategy has stayed consistent (i.e. hopsitalised cases only), then the growth rate is reliable, regardless of how many are missed.

As long as you are recording a more or less fixed percentage of cases, the growth/fall rate is reflective of the whole population.
Surely at some point you hit capacity of the hospitals and that adds an artificial ceiling on the number of cases you can report on
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

RodneyRegis wrote:
bimboman wrote:Does anyone really believe that a big “error” was made.? It’s PR for the change of advice without the Government taking blame cynical .....

Mitigation hasn’t changed. Herd immunity hasn’t changed, it’s been judged as unpalatable to be open about.


When this is all done and dusted it will be interesting to what survives.
You are incorrigible.

What is and isn’t palatable as a message, or more importantly the action you’re expecting people to have to take and when for how long, is being directly balanced against the disease itself and the global response.

They know a few weeks of shut down is Manageable, they know a few months probably not.
Last edited by bimboman on Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Raggs wrote:
CM11 wrote:
Yer Man wrote:
CM11 wrote:Growth factor being going down for days. At 1 yesterday.
It's sort of good news, only problem is we don't know how many people are being tested.
If it's just the ones who are now showing symptoms then there's people who are infected but won't show for another week+.
They are missing from the data.

But any sign of the rate being reduced is better news than if it was going up.
:thumbup:
As long as the testing strategy has stayed consistent (i.e. hopsitalised cases only), then the growth rate is reliable, regardless of how many are missed.

As long as you are recording a more or less fixed percentage of cases, the growth/fall rate is reflective of the whole population.
Testing strategies have changed though. Not sure by how much to know what difference it would make.
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