Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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sewa
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by sewa »

eldanielfire wrote:
rfurlong wrote:So the Brits were basing their entire strategy on viral pneumonia Modeling ..... which is only half as debilitating as covid-19

Holeeeey fvck :uhoh:
But it spreads just like a virus of it's kind. There is little to no data about Covid-19 in that regard. The overall medium term strategy is still the same, Germany, the Netherlands etc are all working on the same basis as the British for the medium term. And the British strategy is still allow it to peak in April so the bulk of patients are in the summer rather than the winter.
Germany and the Netherlands are not following anything like the same advice, all public gathering places, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc are closed
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BlackMac
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by BlackMac »

EverReady wrote:
BlackMac wrote:Would it be possible to create a separate thread for the Irish to slap themselves on the back about how good they are and how bad the Brits are. It's getting a bit bloody tedious reading their shite.
You won't have too for much longer as you are all on your way out
At least I will be able to die in the pub, you shower of softcocks.
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Raggs
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Raggs »

sewa wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
rfurlong wrote:So the Brits were basing their entire strategy on viral pneumonia Modeling ..... which is only half as debilitating as covid-19

Holeeeey fvck :uhoh:
But it spreads just like a virus of it's kind. There is little to no data about Covid-19 in that regard. The overall medium term strategy is still the same, Germany, the Netherlands etc are all working on the same basis as the British for the medium term. And the British strategy is still allow it to peak in April so the bulk of patients are in the summer rather than the winter.
Germany and the Netherlands are not following anything like the same advice, all public gathering places, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc are closed
Basically closed here too, only with clever wording, Boris has saved insurance companies millions, and cost small business owners their livelyhoods.

That was going to be the UK strategy regardless. Transmission rates demanded it. A change in hospitalisation rates has meant that it's no longer going to be enough, and schools etc will most likely need to close too. I'm thinking they want 2 weeks data on these guidelines, whilst schools are still open, followed by two weeks with schoosl shut (easter holidays), to get a good read on how much effect closing schools has.
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crash 669
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by crash 669 »

Sefton wrote:72 year old, history of pleurisy and currently on a course of antibiotics for a chest infection, shows all the symptoms, is my dad a high enough risk to get admitted to a hospital or even test, no. Just self-isolate.
Shitting hell mate, hope he makes it through unscathed.
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camroc1
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by camroc1 »

BlackMac wrote:
Sefton wrote:72 year old, history of pleurisy and currently on a course of antibiotics for a chest infection, shows all the symptoms, is my dad a high enough risk to get admitted to a hospital or even test, no. Just self-isolate.
My daughter is a Type 1 diabetic and still insisting she will be working at her hospital next week. Youngsters think they are invincible. :(
Diabetes is definitely one of the underlying conditions that exacerbate the viral infection. She should at least think about back of house jobs, of which I'm sure there are plenty that need doing, rather than face to face stuff, if at all possible.
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message #2527204
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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AND-y wrote:
Sefton wrote:72 year old, history of pleurisy and currently on a course of antibiotics for a chest infection, shows all the symptoms, is my dad a high enough risk to get admitted to a hospital or even test, no. Just self-isolate.
I've heard this sort of thing a lot IRL. Just how are they deciding who gets tested??

Hope your dad gets better soon.
They test when you need to go to hospital. Most people will get over it quickly, and self isolation for 2 weeks means you slow the spread.
They won't want people turning up with corona virus at a&e, and there will be hundreds of thousands more cases. We will all hope for the best outcome for your dad.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Raggs »

CM11 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
EverReady wrote:
CM11 wrote:
Their rate of new cases.
Bimbo is googling the living fück out of it now trying to find something to refute the facts. He might be the first person to finish the tittyweb

No, I’ve literally no idea what he’s on about, I’m surprised that the answer hasn’t come from the dozens of Irish virologists posting here though.
Italy's rate of growth is showing signs of slowing.

There is a two week lag before any major measures take effect.

Which of those statements do you have difficulty with?
Not wanting to encourage argument as such, but there's a question of just how many tests Italy can run daily, a regular increase of 3.5k infected may point to a limit of testing, rather than a slowdown. UK seems to be testing that sort of number daily (maybe upto 5k I guess?).
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Womack »

I'm just amazed Sefton's dad is only 72...

Seriously though, sounds properly shit, hope he is OK and gets any treatment he may need.
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BlackMac
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by BlackMac »

camroc1 wrote:
BlackMac wrote:
Sefton wrote:72 year old, history of pleurisy and currently on a course of antibiotics for a chest infection, shows all the symptoms, is my dad a high enough risk to get admitted to a hospital or even test, no. Just self-isolate.
My daughter is a Type 1 diabetic and still insisting she will be working at her hospital next week. Youngsters think they are invincible. :(
Diabetes is definitely one of the underlying conditions that exacerbate the viral infection. She should at least think about back of house jobs, of which I'm sure there are plenty that need doing, rather than face to face stuff, if at all possible.
She has been put on to the Planning Team, but according to latest advice she should clearly be self isolating for 12 weeks.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by TB63 »

BlackMac wrote:
Sefton wrote:72 year old, history of pleurisy and currently on a course of antibiotics for a chest infection, shows all the symptoms, is my dad a high enough risk to get admitted to a hospital or even test, no. Just self-isolate.
My daughter is a Type 1 diabetic and still insisting she will be working at her hospital next week. Youngsters think they are invincible. :(
Parents both in their 90s, healthy as a 90 yr old can be which isn't brilliant, daughter type 1 diabetic with asthma, grandaughter chronic asthmatic. .
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message #2527204
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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My old man is in his 80's with quite a few issues, and his partner who is older, has had her own problems recently. Both with all their marbles intact still.
They are fairly sanguine about the fact that if they get it before there's a vaccine, then at least one of them probably won't make it through. :(
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

Raggs wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
nardol wrote:
Raggs wrote:The Netherlands are apparently still going to attempt the herd immunity route. If a country can do it without seriously overwhelming their health services, it appears to be the better option.
As a Dutch resident I fully support this. It's the whole flatten the curve thing. The virus will spread and a full lock down cant and wont work. They are trying to have the virus spread in a controlled fashion and isolate the vulnerable.


Good move and balances economic damage with the health of the population.
The approach lot's of Irish are criticizing on here now. The fact is herd immunity will happen over time. How it happens for the best is the difficult thing to judge.
Lots of countries aiming for suppression strategies now, which means no herd immunity, just sit and wait for a vaccine.
Depends how they are suppressed. The UK seems to be aiming for keeping it away from the vulnerable but allow it to slowly gather in the population.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Varsity Way »

Seneca of the Night wrote:
clementinfrance wrote:
Varsity Way wrote:Interesting meeting at work (legal firm).

We are cancelling practically all payments and they can go whistle - rates, council tax, PAYE the lot. Apparently everyone else is doing this?
Good idea... It's not as if any bailiffs or taxmen are going to be knocking on your door any time soon.
It's not exactly 'good neighbourly'. Imagine if everyone did that.
They will be.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Yer Man »

DragsterDriver wrote:If we all hideAway won’t the virus get bored and leave though?
Hardly.

Most of us have had Bimbot on ignore for months.
C*nt still hangs around infecting every thread it sees.
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message #2527204
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

Raggs wrote:
CM11 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
EverReady wrote:
CM11 wrote:
Their rate of new cases.
Bimbo is googling the living fück out of it now trying to find something to refute the facts. He might be the first person to finish the tittyweb

No, I’ve literally no idea what he’s on about, I’m surprised that the answer hasn’t come from the dozens of Irish virologists posting here though.
Italy's rate of growth is showing signs of slowing.

There is a two week lag before any major measures take effect.

Which of those statements do you have difficulty with?
Not wanting to encourage argument as such, but there's a question of just how many tests Italy can run daily, a regular increase of 3.5k infected may point to a limit of testing, rather than a slowdown. UK seems to be testing that sort of number daily (maybe upto 5k I guess?).
I think the Whately woman said 6000 last night.
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Saint
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Saint »

From the most unremittingly positive person I know on Facebook - I make no guarantee as to the authenticity of each statement
Let’s talk some GOOD NEWS, shall we?

💥 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

💥 Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

💥 Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.

💥 A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

💥 Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

💥 Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

💥 Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.

💥 Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.

💥 Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

💥 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

💥 A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.

💥 A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

💥 Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

💥 All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.

💥 Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

Duff Paddy wrote:
No. Herd immunity doesn't mean you just let it run riot. It means you manage infections, but allow it to spread.
It has already been explained to you by me and others that “herd immunity” isn’t a strategy, it’s an endpoint.
But when and how you reach that endpoint is a strategy.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by JM2K6 »

Saint wrote:From the most unremittingly positive person I know on Facebook - I make no guarantee as to the authenticity of each statement
Let’s talk some GOOD NEWS, shall we?

💥 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

💥 Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

💥 Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.

💥 A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

💥 Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

💥 Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

💥 Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.

💥 Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.

💥 Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

💥 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

💥 A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.

💥 A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

💥 Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

💥 All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.

💥 Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
A lot of this is horseshit or disingenuous, it's really unhelpful
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sewa
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by sewa »

Raggs wrote:
sewa wrote:
Germany and the Netherlands are not following anything like the same advice, all public gathering places, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc are closed
Basically closed here too, only with clever wording, Boris has saved insurance companies millions, and cost small business owners their livelyhoods.

That was going to be the UK strategy regardless. Transmission rates demanded it. A change in hospitalisation rates has meant that it's no longer going to be enough, and schools etc will most likely need to close too. I'm thinking they want 2 weeks data on these guidelines, whilst schools are still open, followed by two weeks with schoosl shut (easter holidays), to get a good read on how much effect closing schools has.
Your schools are still open? Then its completely different. My mates are not letting their kids out of the house, no meeting their mates, sleep overs etc all gone
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

eldanielfire wrote:
Raggs wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
nardol wrote:
Raggs wrote:The Netherlands are apparently still going to attempt the herd immunity route. If a country can do it without seriously overwhelming their health services, it appears to be the better option.
As a Dutch resident I fully support this. It's the whole flatten the curve thing. The virus will spread and a full lock down cant and wont work. They are trying to have the virus spread in a controlled fashion and isolate the vulnerable.


Good move and balances economic damage with the health of the population.
The approach lot's of Irish are criticizing on here now. The fact is herd immunity will happen over time. How it happens for the best is the difficult thing to judge.
Lots of countries aiming for suppression strategies now, which means no herd immunity, just sit and wait for a vaccine.
Depends how they are suppressed. The UK seems to be aiming for keeping it away from the vulnerable but allow it to slowly gather in the population.
The point is to plateau the cases so that the health services can cope. I e not have an uncontrolled spike.
All countries will do this if they can. Including the much vaunted South Korea.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

sewa wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
rfurlong wrote:So the Brits were basing their entire strategy on viral pneumonia Modeling ..... which is only half as debilitating as covid-19

Holeeeey fvck :uhoh:
But it spreads just like a virus of it's kind. There is little to no data about Covid-19 in that regard. The overall medium term strategy is still the same, Germany, the Netherlands etc are all working on the same basis as the British for the medium term. And the British strategy is still allow it to peak in April so the bulk of patients are in the summer rather than the winter.
Germany and the Netherlands are not following anything like the same advice, all public gathering places, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc are closed
And both are further along with a higher percentage of cases than the UK.
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Bindi
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Bindi »

Australian government has asked all citizens to return home. Looks like borders are going to close.
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Good stuff Saint.

Raggs, there was a decrease of a couple of thousand in Italy yesterday so not just a case of hitting their testing peak. When you do the percentage decrease, it's gone from 20% to 12% in two days. Not enough yet for a pattern but I'll cling on to what I can get!
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Duff Paddy
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Duff Paddy »

eldanielfire wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
No. Herd immunity doesn't mean you just let it run riot. It means you manage infections, but allow it to spread.
It has already been explained to you by me and others that “herd immunity” isn’t a strategy, it’s an endpoint.
But when and how you reach that endpoint is a strategy.
Yes 100% but as there are different ways of achieving this (usually it’s by mass vaccination) we need to use the correct terminology
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

JM2K6 wrote:
Saint wrote:From the most unremittingly positive person I know on Facebook - I make no guarantee as to the authenticity of each statement
Let’s talk some GOOD NEWS, shall we?

💥 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

💥 Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

💥 Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.

💥 A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

💥 Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

💥 Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

💥 Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.

💥 Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.

💥 Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

💥 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

💥 A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.

💥 A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

💥 Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

💥 All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.

💥 Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
A lot of this is horseshit or disingenuous, it's really unhelpful
But none of it changes the advice so let's pretend, eh?
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sewa
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by sewa »

eldanielfire wrote:
sewa wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
rfurlong wrote:So the Brits were basing their entire strategy on viral pneumonia Modeling ..... which is only half as debilitating as covid-19

Holeeeey fvck :uhoh:
But it spreads just like a virus of it's kind. There is little to no data about Covid-19 in that regard. The overall medium term strategy is still the same, Germany, the Netherlands etc are all working on the same basis as the British for the medium term. And the British strategy is still allow it to peak in April so the bulk of patients are in the summer rather than the winter.
Germany and the Netherlands are not following anything like the same advice, all public gathering places, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc are closed
And both are further along with a higher percentage of cases than the UK.
NL have 24 deaths, UK has 55, thats not far off the same % given relative populations. Comparing the number of confirmed cases is an absolute nonsense given the differences in numbers of tests being performed in each country, you have 1500 confirmed cases with an estimate of 35 to 50,000 people having contracted it
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

JM2K6 wrote:
Saint wrote:From the most unremittingly positive person I know on Facebook - I make no guarantee as to the authenticity of each statement
Let’s talk some GOOD NEWS, shall we?

💥 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

💥 Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

💥 Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.

💥 A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

💥 Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

💥 Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

💥 Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.

💥 Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.

💥 Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

💥 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

💥 A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.

💥 A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

💥 Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

💥 All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.

💥 Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
A lot of this is horseshit or disingenuous, it's really unhelpful
Let people hope...As long as they follow government guidelines.
People are also posting some fiercely unhelpful shit, like covid 19 gives you pulmonary fibrosis within 7 days that I saw yesterday.
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slick
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by slick »

message #2527204 wrote:
camroc1 wrote:
message #2527204 wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
message #2527204 wrote:[
I'm not trying hard to defend it. I'm stating it as it is, rather than declaring they used a different model. Like the 'herd immunity' it's just a misunderstanding.
I'd much rather believe the scientific community than Piers f**king Morgan and hysterical twatterati
Ah come on. It didn’t go from an unknown to a known in 48hours - they just realised that they were incorrect when it was pointed out to them.
I'd imagine the knots only require a small change to have a large effect.
In any case, it's just a question of timing. We always knew we'd escalate self isolation in line with what the Italians did. The hysterics are claiming that it could have been stopped.
Personally, I don't think they wanted to close down quite so early. But they have to handle rising panic as well as the science, the NHS and the economic disaster.
We had UK experts on TV saying that Ireland had closed down "too early" and would suffer for that, we even had one loolah tell the UK public that Ireland had to close down early because it "didn't have a health system". We share an open border with part of your jurisdiction that was not following WHO guidelines. And you give out because of a bit of grief on a small chat room.

When officialdom bunkers down over a bad decision, the lies just get bigger and bigger.
But they're not 'bunkering down', they are following WHO guidelines and being very open and explaining things on a daily basis. If they were, they wouldn't be saying things had changed.
Things have changed because we're further up the curve. Things will change in Ireland- and South Korea - too as it progresses through the population.

Just because certain decisions appear counter intuitive doesn't make them wrong.
I agree with this. I also agree that my only real complaint about the governments announcement yesterday is that they seem to have caved in to media and social media and started this phase too early.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Yer Man »

Saint wrote:From the most unremittingly positive person I know on Facebook - I make no guarantee as to the authenticity of each statement
Let’s talk some GOOD NEWS, shall we?

💥 China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
So, everyone is already dead?

💥 Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
Age of these people? Are they in the "young and likely to recover anyway" bracket?

💥 Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
Good for them. Let me know when they've turned it into a vaccine

💥 A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
Good for her, but this infection isn't 100% fatal

💥 Apple reopens all 42 china stores,
f*ck 'em

💥 Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
Now that could be real progress if (a) true and more importantly (b) they have enough kits to make use of it

💥 Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
Been that way for a few days

💥 Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
Also, water is wet and the Pope is fond of cats.

💥 Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
When?

💥 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
As will most people

💥 A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
When

💥 A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
When

💥 Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
As before, most people are expected to recover

💥 All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
See above

💥 Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
Need a more medically qualified person to clarify what this means.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

My big complaint about the Government is the sneaky way they’ve advised not going to the Pub etc without allowing insurance contracts to kick in if applicable by actually closing businesses down. It’s not on.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by croyals »

BlackMac wrote:
EverReady wrote:
BlackMac wrote:Would it be possible to create a separate thread for the Irish to slap themselves on the back about how good they are and how bad the Brits are. It's getting a bit bloody tedious reading their shite.
You won't have too for much longer as you are all on your way out
At least I will be able to die in the pub, you shower of softcocks.
Yep it has been phenomenally tedious. Nationalism is a hell of a drug.

Also, we won’t know which approaches were really the most effective for months or perhaps years
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

Yer Man wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:If we all hideAway won’t the virus get bored and leave though?
Hardly.

Most of us have had Bimbot on ignore for months.
C*nt still hangs around infecting every thread it sees.
That’s because he’s Irish catnip. You love him.
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RodneyRegis
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by RodneyRegis »

Raggs wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
nardol wrote:
Raggs wrote:The Netherlands are apparently still going to attempt the herd immunity route. If a country can do it without seriously overwhelming their health services, it appears to be the better option.
As a Dutch resident I fully support this. It's the whole flatten the curve thing. The virus will spread and a full lock down cant and wont work. They are trying to have the virus spread in a controlled fashion and isolate the vulnerable.


Good move and balances economic damage with the health of the population.
The approach lot's of Irish are criticizing on here now. The fact is herd immunity will happen over time. How it happens for the best is the difficult thing to judge.
Yes we want it to happen slowly over time - as raggs said - to keep pace with the health service capacity. Once you overload that, as you are proposing, the death rates shoots up from about 1% to somewhere between 3-8% and that’s just the virus, not all the other normal causes of death
No. Herd immunity doesn't mean you just let it run riot. It means you manage infections, but allow it to spread.

The model the UK, Italy, and probably most of Europe is now facing, is suppression. Meaning the virus doesn't spread, and no immunity is gained. Basically you are waiting for a vaccine. The vaccine can take 12-18 months. In that time, there will be no unncessary social interaction (pubs, restaurants, sports, tourism etc), isolation for the household if you cough (not confirmed cases only), isolation for the over 70s, closure of school and universities, for the entire 12-18 month period.

All of this is required to suppress the illness in the UK, so it doesn't spread. Ireland may be different, Netherlands currently thinks it's different.

Any nation that can still go along a mitigation route (lots of social distancing still, but not stopping the spread), absolutely should, it's far less damaging long term.
OK.

So if we don't lock down then the virus spreads too quick and the NHS is overloaded.

But if we lock down then we don't get herd immunity.

Herd immunity is more important than the NHS being able to cope?

Nowhere has stopped the exponential growth without locking down. EVEN WITH locking down some are struggling. Why do you think the UK will be different? Are you still going on the advice from last week?
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Raggs
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Raggs »

sewa wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
sewa wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
rfurlong wrote:So the Brits were basing their entire strategy on viral pneumonia Modeling ..... which is only half as debilitating as covid-19

Holeeeey fvck :uhoh:
But it spreads just like a virus of it's kind. There is little to no data about Covid-19 in that regard. The overall medium term strategy is still the same, Germany, the Netherlands etc are all working on the same basis as the British for the medium term. And the British strategy is still allow it to peak in April so the bulk of patients are in the summer rather than the winter.
Germany and the Netherlands are not following anything like the same advice, all public gathering places, pubs, restaurants, gyms etc are closed
And both are further along with a higher percentage of cases than the UK.
NL have 24 deaths, UK has 55, thats not far off the same % given relative populations. Comparing the number of confirmed cases is an absolute nonsense given the differences in numbers of tests being performed in each country, you have 1500 confirmed cases with an estimate of 35 to 50,000 people having contracted it
UK has almost 4x the population of Netherlands.

Eldanielfire, if we're moving to a suppression model, the peak will occur a bit later (Jun/Jul), but it's irrelevant to the strategy of basically trying to shut down until a vaccine is found.

Schools are thought to have a relatively minor effect in this one, but it all adds up, we have Easter holidays in 2 weeks. 2 weeks of our current measurements, 2 weeks with schools included, give the scientists UK specific data, dealing with UK specific idiocy in not following the rules etc, to see UK spread.
CM11 wrote:Good stuff Saint.

Raggs, there was a decrease of a couple of thousand in Italy yesterday so not just a case of hitting their testing peak. When you do the percentage decrease, it's gone from 20% to 12% in two days. Not enough yet for a pattern but I'll cling on to what I can get!
Enouraging drop. Shutdown happened 5-7 days ago I believe, so potentially just schools. Hopefully.

Do we know what other measures were taken?
zzzz
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by zzzz »

There's an awful lot of crap being talked on this thread by people who should know better.

Herd immunity was never UK policy. It was recognised as being, at a best, a by product of events and never the focus of policy.

Equally, the UK didn't model the "wrong" data. It's model used the best equivalent data it had and updated that data as "real" data became available. Bitching about the Govt failing to use non-existent C19 data in its initial modelling is pretty dumb.

The Govt's plan was always dynamic and was always going to move to this stage at some point. Pretty much everything they have done has been signalled in advance as being likely to occur at some point . All that has changed was a timing advance.

You expect the Piers Morgans of the world to get this stuff wrong but not some of the papers (looking at you FT) who are making a complete hash of this.
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Uncle Fester
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Uncle Fester »

Sefton wrote:
BlackMac wrote:Would it be possible to create a separate thread for the Irish to slap themselves on the back about how good they are and how bad the Brits are. It's getting a bit bloody tedious reading their shite.
It's pathetic, both sides are more interested in winning an internet argument.
Sorry Seft but unless their nonsense is stamped out, it'll pop it's head back up again.

Hope your dad is okay.
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sewa
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by sewa »

Its not just shutting down waiting for a vaccine ffs. You can train in people in ICU procedures, buy more respirators etc. Delaying the peak is a massive advantage unless you fancy over loading hospitals, emergency staff, undertakers etc
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slick
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by slick »

Duff Paddy wrote:
Sefton wrote:
BlackMac wrote:Would it be possible to create a separate thread for the Irish to slap themselves on the back about how good they are and how bad the Brits are. It's getting a bit bloody tedious reading their shite.
It's pathetic, both sides are more interested in winning an internet argument.
Yeah sorry for going all brexit thread but I’m just unable to ignore it when people are posting up that is scientifically bankrupt
Not really. You are just taking the Piers Morgan route. Whoever is right loads of people are going to die and you can say, "told you so, if you'd listened to me less people would have died". It's pathetic.
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croyals
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by croyals »

It is really hard to see how political journalists can continue to take the lead in reporting this. Adjusting policy as the situation develops and data becomes clearer is surely classic crisis management, not shocking u turns etc
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EverReady
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by EverReady »

BlackMac wrote:
EverReady wrote:
BlackMac wrote:Would it be possible to create a separate thread for the Irish to slap themselves on the back about how good they are and how bad the Brits are. It's getting a bit bloody tedious reading their shite.
You won't have too for much longer as you are all on your way out
At least I will be able to die in the pub, you shower of softcocks.
It'll be like Shaun of the Dead. Good luck Sefton
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