Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

[Saint]

Sounds like pretty much all of UK retail is shutting up shop even without a government order

[de_Selby]

so in the good news corner we have 12k ventilators coming on stream in the UK

but in the bad news corner we have tensions fraying and everyone at each others throat after only 1 week of social distancing

[paddyor]

https://necpluribusimpar.net/are-we-hea ... -disaster/

Interesting read particularly about the limits of models and in particular the model used by the ICL team in their paper. What if it just leads to group think? We could end up talking ourselves into a deeper depression if it's only a little bit off.

[Sards]

All this aggression...

[ScarfaceClaw]

Maybe

I'm also a stupid sexist pig who has no sense of 'doing the right thing', as I don't understand such concepts

Sucks to be you.

Hey, nice edit - should have recalled it as you that Harped on about quitting numerous jobs because managers were nasty blah blah blah
Perhaps you just don’t understand the concept of respinsabilty, public office, overcoming challenges , making tough decisions ?

My comments on your crappy ex health minister stand whether they are a woman or a man so I wasn’t being sexist for once , it’s cowards softcock behaviour of the highest order there by your elected official.

Jaysus Yeeb. You’ve dropped a bollock on this one. Step back and let Mog and Bimbo run with it for a few pages. It’s not your finest hour...

[TheFrog]

I have just driven past a 'drive through' Maccie D's near me and it was somewhat disturbing to see a queue of vehicles wrapping around the block and the restaurant itself rammed with people. What the f*ck is wrong with people.

The Cheam one was the same, a pal told me about this - bonkers behaviour

I thought they had shut every outlet??

I think they are shutting today, so the idiots all headed out so they could get their last fix of Maccy Ds before the shut down.

I do like one, but will not be having one! I am hoping to lose a few pounds in these troubling times.

I just heard that a guy that I have dealt with professionally (lettings manager) has died aged 50 from Covid-19 - no underlying health issues as far as I know.

A colleague of mine lost a friend- the second death in Ontario and that guy was healthy too before catching the virus.

[The Man Without Fear]

All this aggression...

Up yours!

[Nolanator]

Staying in such an important job at a time like this while clearly unfit for it and in poor health would be fúcking stupid.


All the fatties queuing for their Maccie D's are probably vulnerable to the virus, but are still congregating and probably spreading it amongst themselves.

[clementinfrance]

Maybe

I'm also a stupid sexist pig who has no sense of 'doing the right thing', as I don't understand such concepts

Sucks to be you.

Hey, nice edit - should have recalled it as you that Harped on about quitting numerous jobs because managers were nasty blah blah blah
Perhaps you just don’t understand the concept of respinsabilty, public office, overcoming challenges , making tough decisions ?

My comments on your crappy ex health minister stand whether they are a woman or a man so I wasn’t being sexist for once , it’s cowards softcock behaviour of the highest order there by your elected official.

Jaysus Yeeb. You’ve dropped a bollock on this one. Step back and let Mog and Bimbo run with it for a few pages. It’s not your finest hour...

Typical Yeeb.

Heavy doses of mysogyny, a sprinkling of victim complex together with loads of uninformed opinion and clichés...

[6.Jones]

https://necpluribusimpar.net/are-we-hea ... -disaster/

Interesting read particularly about the limits of models and in particular the model used by the ICL team in their paper. What if it just leads to group think? We could end up talking ourselves into a deeper depression if it's only a little bit off.

A good article for modeling geeks, and kudos to him for digging into the assumptions in the IC model, but as he concludes:

I think the risk of a worst case scenario is enough to suggest the pretty radical strategy I briefly described above

That strategy is lockdown. His point is we can't know the worst case. Lockdown is prudent.

If the predictions made by those simulations are correct or even if they’re not but they’re also not completely off the mark, then we are headed toward an unprecedented health disaster. This would mean that we should not only build ventilators, we should probably build ventilator factories .

I like this:

First, even if the probability that an individual is infected because he goes to a polling station is not greater than the probability that he is infected because he goes to the supermarket to buy groceries, it’s quite obvious that the probability that he is infected if he does both is greater than if he just goes to the supermarket to buy groceries. Similarly, someone who goes to the supermarket twice a week is more likely to be infected than someone who goes only once a week. Indeed, if that were not the case, the government would not be asking us today to limit the number of times we go out in order to minimize the risk of being infected or infecting others. This is totally obvious and one has to be a complete idiot not to understand it, but unfortunately I fear that we are being governed by idiots, because even though they lie a lot, I have little doubt that they still believe a lot of the nonsense they are saying.

Bravo.

[paddyor]

What a piece of shit. he's citing a (dubious at best) study which held a goct he was once part of responsible for 130k deaths

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/124 ... 17216?s=20

[CM11]

Another 'good' day for Italy. Below 5000 new cases and fewer deaths again for the second day. Below 10% growth rate now.

[ManInTheBar]

Another 'good' day for Italy. Below 5000 new cases and fewer deaths again for the second day. Below 10% growth rate now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

If you squint at the cases table on the logarithmic scale you could JUST imagine that it is flattening out.

But we must also be aware that it has been the North that has been worst affected so far and that there may be another surge from the mezzogiorno and the south

Ach, we're all experts now

[CM11]

Another 'good' day for Italy. Below 5000 new cases and fewer deaths again for the second day. Below 10% growth rate now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

If you squint at the cases table on the logarithmic scale you could JUST imagine that it is flattening out.

But we must also be aware that it has been the North that has been worst affected so far and that there may be another surge from the mezzogiorno and the south

Ach, we're all experts now

Graph won't be updated until tomorrow so you'll need to squint less then!

But fair point.

[de_Selby]

https://necpluribusimpar.net/are-we-hea ... -disaster/

Interesting read particularly about the limits of models and in particular the model used by the ICL team in their paper. What if it just leads to group think? We could end up talking ourselves into a deeper depression if it's only a little bit off.

This is really great, good to have some detail on the model, so the simulation was essentially a monte carlo model. It seems like a good way to go about modelling it, though the outcomes are a bit frightening obviously.

Obviously it's not a perfect model, but I'm not sure all his criticisms of it are valid - eg: you wouldn't need to account for the hours worked/at home surely that could just be incorporated into the transmission coefficients.
He also mentions a few times that he thinks a big failing of the model is that it doesn't account for an increased transmission when hospital beds are saturated, I don't really see why that would be the case.

[Petej]

Another 'good' day for Italy. Below 5000 new cases and fewer deaths again for the second day. Below 10% growth rate now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

If you squint at the cases table on the logarithmic scale you could JUST imagine that it is flattening out.

But we must also be aware that it has been the North that has been worst affected so far and that there may be another surge from the mezzogiorno and the south

Ach, we're all experts now

Graph won't be updated until tomorrow so you'll need to squint less then!

But fair point.

Hopefully this means full suppression might be achievable ala Taiwan and South Korea.

[ManInTheBar]

Another 'good' day for Italy. Below 5000 new cases and fewer deaths again for the second day. Below 10% growth rate now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

If you squint at the cases table on the logarithmic scale you could JUST imagine that it is flattening out.

But we must also be aware that it has been the North that has been worst affected so far and that there may be another surge from the mezzogiorno and the south

Ach, we're all experts now

Graph won't be updated until tomorrow so you'll need to squint less then!

But fair point.

I'll be a day older and have had several more w@ks by then (it's a comfort) so my sight...

But thanks for drawing my attention to the date issue which I had not been aware of

[goeagles]

https://necpluribusimpar.net/are-we-hea ... -disaster/

Interesting read particularly about the limits of models and in particular the model used by the ICL team in their paper. What if it just leads to group think? We could end up talking ourselves into a deeper depression if it's only a little bit off.

A good article for modeling geeks, and kudos to him for digging into the assumptions in the IC model, but as he concludes:

I think the risk of a worst case scenario is enough to suggest the pretty radical strategy I briefly described above

That strategy is lockdown. His point is we can't know the worst case. Lockdown is prudent.

If the predictions made by those simulations are correct or even if they’re not but they’re also not completely off the mark, then we are headed toward an unprecedented health disaster. This would mean that we should not only build ventilators, we should probably build ventilator factories .

I like this:

First, even if the probability that an individual is infected because he goes to a polling station is not greater than the probability that he is infected because he goes to the supermarket to buy groceries, it’s quite obvious that the probability that he is infected if he does both is greater than if he just goes to the supermarket to buy groceries. Similarly, someone who goes to the supermarket twice a week is more likely to be infected than someone who goes only once a week. Indeed, if that were not the case, the government would not be asking us today to limit the number of times we go out in order to minimize the risk of being infected or infecting others. This is totally obvious and one has to be a complete idiot not to understand it, but unfortunately I fear that we are being governed by idiots, because even though they lie a lot, I have little doubt that they still believe a lot of the nonsense they are saying.

Bravo.

Good post and it hits home for a really frustrating reason. My wife's father is a control freak and part of how that manifests itself is that he goes to the grocery store every single day, sometimes multiple times per day. He is 68 with existing comorbidities. My wife's mother is 80 and also in a high risk group. Her father refuses to change his behavior and continues to go to the grocery store every single day. My wife has begged him to stop going to the grocery store so much and he refuses, which results in her yelling at him and telling him that if he gives her mom COVID and she dies that she will never talk to him again. Of course, on a societal level, that's also really bad behavior as if he gets it and is asymptomatic for a week, he's 7x as likely to spread it at a grocery store as someone who only goes once a week.

[Raggs]

https://necpluribusimpar.net/are-we-hea ... -disaster/

Interesting read particularly about the limits of models and in particular the model used by the ICL team in their paper. What if it just leads to group think? We could end up talking ourselves into a deeper depression if it's only a little bit off.

This is really great, good to have some detail on the model, so the simulation was essentially a monte carlo model. It seems like a good way to go about modelling it, though the outcomes are a bit frightening obviously.

Obviously it's not a perfect model, but I'm not sure all his criticisms of it are valid - eg: you wouldn't need to account for the hours worked/at home surely that could just be incorporated into the transmission coefficients.
He also mentions a few times that he thinks a big failing of the model is that it doesn't account for an increased transmission when hospital beds are saturated, I don't really see why that would be the case.

Didn't see that, but didn't read it all. Are you sure it's not that he's repeatedly saying that morbidity rate goes up a lot more when hospitals are saturated, and that wasn't taken into account (because to my reading, he said that a lot).

[de_Selby]

https://necpluribusimpar.net/are-we-hea ... -disaster/

Interesting read particularly about the limits of models and in particular the model used by the ICL team in their paper. What if it just leads to group think? We could end up talking ourselves into a deeper depression if it's only a little bit off.

This is really great, good to have some detail on the model, so the simulation was essentially a monte carlo model. It seems like a good way to go about modelling it, though the outcomes are a bit frightening obviously.

Obviously it's not a perfect model, but I'm not sure all his criticisms of it are valid - eg: you wouldn't need to account for the hours worked/at home surely that could just be incorporated into the transmission coefficients.
He also mentions a few times that he thinks a big failing of the model is that it doesn't account for an increased transmission when hospital beds are saturated, I don't really see why that would be the case.

Didn't see that, but didn't read it all. Are you sure it's not that he's repeatedly saying that morbidity rate goes up a lot more when hospitals are saturated, and that wasn't taken into account (because to my reading, he said that a lot).

My bad, he uses the term "infection fatality rate" which I parsed as infection rate.

[Boobs not Moobs]

BBC news just shut down Alistair Campbell saying we're out of time, and then instead of going to new news it just carried on reshowing clips from earlier

[Saint]

BBC news just shut down Alistair Campbell saying we're out of time, and then instead of going to new news it just carried on reshowing clips from earlier

Shame it's taken an event like this to put Campbell where he deserves to be

[Raggs]

Up by nearly 1000 again for the UK.

[Boobs not Moobs]

BBC news just shut down Alistair Campbell saying we're out of time, and then instead of going to new news it just carried on reshowing clips from earlier

Shame it's taken an event like this to put Campbell where he deserves to be

He was having a good rant.

[goeagles]

New cases down and new deaths down again from yesterday in Italy.

3/23: 4789, 601
3/22: 5560, 651
3/21: 6557, 793

May this trend continue.

[backrow]

New cases down and new deaths down again from yesterday in Italy.

3/23: 4789, 601
3/22: 5560, 651
3/21: 6557, 793

May this trend continue.

Deffo
Have seen on the worldometer site that a few European counties seem to have slightly decreased the rate, like a rollercoaster nearing the top

[6.Jones]

New cases down and new deaths down again from yesterday in Italy.

3/23: 4789, 601
3/22: 5560, 651
3/21: 6557, 793

May this trend continue.

That's one for the good news thread. Social distancing having an effect.

[tabascoboy]

So, BoJo's going to address the nation at 20.30. Presumably a stepping up of restrictions...

[Frodder]

So, BoJo's going to address the nation at 20.30. Presumably a stepping up of restrictions...

Public parks, golf courses, beaches etc...for the chop. Further measures?

[message #2527204]

So, BoJo's going to address the nation at 20.30. Presumably a stepping up of restrictions...

Public parks, golf courses, beaches etc...for the chop. Further measures?

More likely close down all but essential business?

They've already said they want to keep parks open and given reasons?

[sorCrer]

So, BoJo's going to address the nation at 20.30. Presumably a stepping up of restrictions...

Public parks, golf courses, beaches etc...for the chop. Further measures?

More likely close down all but essential business?

They've already said they want to keep parks open and given reasons?

Everyone lockdown in homes from midnight Thursday in Saffaland.

[Boobs not Moobs]

FFS

The Taliban have pledged their readiness to cooperate with healthcare workers instead of killing them, as fear of a coronavirus epidemic spreads in Afghanistan.

Whatever reservations the militants previously held over eradicating the crippling disease, they have now clearly grasped the dangers posed by the pandemic sweeping the rest of the world.

In the past the military organisation have been accused of impeding the work of doctors.

'The Islamic Emirate via its Health Commission assures all international health organizations and WHO of its readiness to cooperate and coordinate with them in combating the coronavirus,' said Suhail Shaheen, the Taliban's spokesman, on Twitter, using the term the group uses to describe itself.

[Raggs]

Thought France was improving, but looks like they've updated their numbers, almost 25% increase again.

[C69]

Feck me that was a dire day in work.
Since this virus began we have a chronic shortage of PPE and loads of staff being given terrible advice by ward staff.
the real figures and predictions are potentially much much worse than projected
I have banged on about ventilation for weeks before it became fashionable.
We are fecked in this matter.

[eldanielfire]

Spoiler: show

Shows that centuries after, ways of fighting pandemic remain centuries old methods rather than high tech solutions

Even providing the protection in Vaccination is a centuries old method.

[quarter2four]

Spoiler: show

Shows that centuries after, ways of fighting pandemic remain centuries old methods rather than high tech solutions

Its fake.

From here https://twitter.com/Pepys_Diaries

[eldanielfire]

so in the good news corner we have 12k ventilators coming on stream in the UK

but in the bad news corner we have tensions fraying and everyone at each others throat after only 1 week of social distancing

Government hoping for 30,000 in 2 weeks:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... olls-royce

[happyhooker]

Spoiler: show

Shows that centuries after, ways of fighting pandemic remain centuries old methods rather than high tech solutions

Even providing the protection in Vaccination is a centuries old method.

You know it's bollocks, right? A fake quote from a normally decent twitter feed

[Derwyn]

New cases down and new deaths down again from yesterday in Italy.

3/23: 4789, 601
3/22: 5560, 651
3/21: 6557, 793

May this trend continue.

Deffo
Have seen on the worldometer site that a few European counties seem to have slightly decreased the rate, like a rollercoaster nearing the top

Then what happens when the restrictions lift?

[CM11]

New cases down and new deaths down again from yesterday in Italy.

3/23: 4789, 601
3/22: 5560, 651
3/21: 6557, 793

May this trend continue.

Deffo
Have seen on the worldometer site that a few European counties seem to have slightly decreased the rate, like a rollercoaster nearing the top

Then what happens when the restrictions lift?

There'll be no one left to infect!