Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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Zico
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Zico »

Ali's Choice wrote:Really surprised to hear that the UK are only just bringing in a 14 day mandatory quarantine for all international arrivals. Surely the horse has well and truly bolted by now?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52594023

Australia did this over a month ago, and arrivals weren't able to self isolate at home, they were forced to quarantine in vacant hotels under supervision of the Australian Defense Force. This measure was arguably one of the most important steps taken in Australia, as almost 8% of arrivals were found to be infected with COVID-19. I just assumed that somewhere like the UK would have done this ages ago.

Also I see that arrivals from the ROI will be exempt from quarantine, which seems odd to me given that the death rate in Ireland per million people is higher than the USA.
It's a bit odd alright. Especially after all the song and dance about taking back control of their borders.

The logic I suppose is that it will coincide with easing lockdown restrictions for the general public but new arrivals will be expected to stay isolated for the presumed incubation period.

Ireland took restrictive measures before the UK so should in theory have less infection risk.
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Clogs
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Clogs »

Anonymous. wrote:
Clogs wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Anonymous. wrote:Deaths yesterday

Denmark 9
Finland 10
Sweden 90

Thankfully no countries with large populations living in big cities have done what the Swedes have done.
Those numbers don't mean anything yet. Sweden are playing the long game. COVID-19 deaths aren't going to stop this year and possibly next.
Deaths yesterday

Denmark 8
Finland 3
Sweden 99

Mitigate the death toll as best you can while the whole world tries to find treatments and vaccines. That is what should be happening.
This is a bit like declaring the winner of the Melbourne Cup at the first furlong. There is an awful long way to go in this thing. If this virus behaves the same globally and the actual IFR is 0.37 then it is just a matter of infections before the playing field is level. Australia and New Zealand have a long long way to go.

Also, Sweden may have hit 20% of the population infected. While it is not the magical herd immunity, it does have an impact and slow the spread. The UK may have way more infected than what they thought, and easing restricitons may not result in catastrophe. Other countries that have put the brakes on early may have had a lot less infections and will have to move forward very differently...

PRediction is foolish with this thing, retrospection will be a far more sensible position.
Sweden had 135 people die on Thursday with Denmark 4 and Finland 5. It was their 4th worst day since this started. The model we had in the UK suggested if we did what Sweden are doing we would have 500,000 dead. That looks like an underestimation when you compare us to France,Spain and Italy.
I hate to have to break this to you, but those countries had quite a few more deaths than that...

Also some simple arithmetic would show that the model you may have been working from is a bust.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Pat the Ex Mat »

Ali's Choice wrote:Really surprised to hear that the UK are only just bringing in a 14 day mandatory quarantine for all international arrivals. Surely the horse has well and truly bolted by now?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52594023

Australia did this over a month ago, and arrivals weren't able to self isolate at home, they were forced to quarantine in vacant hotels under supervision of the Australian Defense Force. This measure was arguably one of the most important steps taken in Australia, as almost 8% of arrivals were found to be infected with COVID-19. I just assumed that somewhere like the UK would have done this ages ago.

Also I see that arrivals from the ROI will be exempt from quarantine, which seems odd to me given that the death rate in Ireland per million people is higher than the USA.
That isn't strictly true

Before that there was at least 2 weeks where people arrived with nothing more than a request to self-isolate
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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Image
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Ali's Choice »

Pat the Ex Mat wrote:
Ali's Choice wrote:Really surprised to hear that the UK are only just bringing in a 14 day mandatory quarantine for all international arrivals. Surely the horse has well and truly bolted by now?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52594023

Australia did this over a month ago, and arrivals weren't able to self isolate at home, they were forced to quarantine in vacant hotels under supervision of the Australian Defense Force. This measure was arguably one of the most important steps taken in Australia, as almost 8% of arrivals were found to be infected with COVID-19. I just assumed that somewhere like the UK would have done this ages ago.

Also I see that arrivals from the ROI will be exempt from quarantine, which seems odd to me given that the death rate in Ireland per million people is higher than the USA.
That isn't strictly true

Before that there was at least 2 weeks where people arrived with nothing more than a request to self-isolate
I never said there wasn't a self imposed period. But that ended over a month ago when it became clear that not everyone was willing or able to follow the rules. Then the Army was called in to effectively imprison arrivals in hotels. Very draconian but it appears that measure saved lots of infections.

Edit: The enforced hotel quarantine rules came into effect at 12am Sunday 29th March. You are correct that for from March 15th International arrivals had only been required to self isolate.
Last edited by Ali's Choice on Sun May 10, 2020 7:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Duff Paddy »

vh5150 wrote:
So you just spread conspiracy theories.

Are you an anti-vaxer too ?
Not sure how this is a conspiracy theory. I’m not associating the origins of Covid -19 with whether it was a biological weapon deliberately released. Just that there is growing evidence of Covid -19 possibly being a standard gain of function experiment that went wrong and was released by accident. The evidence is pointing less and less to a mutation and more towards an inserted sequence that close virus relatives simply don’t have. Don’t be so eager to rule out other info as a conspiracy theory ... that is often a symptom of intellectually bankrupt.

... I’m also a qualified vaccinator and essential worker who has been at the coal face and administered 100s of flu jabs over the past 6 weeks.
Go on give us a laugh, post your “evidence” of this
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by vh5150 »

Duff Paddy wrote:
vh5150 wrote:
So you just spread conspiracy theories.

Are you an anti-vaxer too ?
Not sure how this is a conspiracy theory. I’m not associating the origins of Covid -19 with whether it was a biological weapon deliberately released. Just that there is growing evidence of Covid -19 possibly being a standard gain of function experiment that went wrong and was released by accident. The evidence is pointing less and less to a mutation and more towards an inserted sequence that close virus relatives simply don’t have. Don’t be so eager to rule out other info as a conspiracy theory ... that is often a symptom of intellectually bankrupt.

... I’m also a qualified vaccinator and essential worker who has been at the coal face and administered 100s of flu jabs over the past 6 weeks.
Go on give us a laugh, post your “evidence” of this
Check out the “Peak Prosperity” YouTube channel. These guys have been all over Covid since early January. Be warned it’s apolitical up/down political commentary ... no time for left/right debate. I’ve found their commentary on the monetary situation fascinating. Complex stuff (to me) nailed down to smart bite sized info. There sources and reasoning well referenced.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Sefton »

Sonny Blount wrote:Image
Jeez, that is moronic.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Slim 293 »

vh5150 wrote:
Duff Paddy wrote:
vh5150 wrote:
So you just spread conspiracy theories.

Are you an anti-vaxer too ?
Not sure how this is a conspiracy theory. I’m not associating the origins of Covid -19 with whether it was a biological weapon deliberately released. Just that there is growing evidence of Covid -19 possibly being a standard gain of function experiment that went wrong and was released by accident. The evidence is pointing less and less to a mutation and more towards an inserted sequence that close virus relatives simply don’t have. Don’t be so eager to rule out other info as a conspiracy theory ... that is often a symptom of intellectually bankrupt.

... I’m also a qualified vaccinator and essential worker who has been at the coal face and administered 100s of flu jabs over the past 6 weeks.
Go on give us a laugh, post your “evidence” of this
Check out the “Peak Prosperity” YouTube channel. These guys have been all over Covid since early January. Be warned it’s apolitical up/down political commentary ... no time for left/right debate. I’ve found their commentary on the monetary situation fascinating. Complex stuff (to me) nailed down to smart bite sized info. There sources and reasoning well referenced.

Just stop right there... :lol:
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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Sonny Blount
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Sonny Blount »

Sefton wrote:
Sonny Blount wrote:
Spoiler: show
Image
Jeez, that is moronic.
It depends where you are.

Certainly NZ's snitches are a pack of twats.

Complaints about people on beaches and outside generally are from ignorant knobs
Last edited by Sonny Blount on Sun May 10, 2020 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Sefton
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Sefton »

Sonny Blount wrote:
Sefton wrote:
Sonny Blount wrote:
Spoiler: show
Image
Jeez, that is moronic.
It depends where you are.

Certainly NZ's snitches are a pack of twats.
It makes no difference, it’s moronic.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Enzedder »

Sonny Blount wrote: Certainly NZ's snitches are a pack of twats.
That remains to be seen. If the numbers shoot back up, the quarantine ignorers will be proven to be the twats
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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vh5150 wrote: Check out the “Peak Prosperity” YouTube channel. These guys have been all over Covid since early January. Be warned it’s apolitical up/down political commentary ... no time for left/right debate. I’ve found their commentary on the monetary situation fascinating. Complex stuff (to me) nailed down to smart bite sized info. There sources and reasoning well referenced.
Dude, Where's My Car?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Raggs »

vh5150 wrote:
fishfoodie wrote: and what expertise do you bring that allows you to critique Nature's experts ?
... none. But I like to read and hear other experts views. I quite the fan of up/down analysis vs left/right. Well researched and measured views deserve attention in these strange times.
And what expertise do you have to judge the other experts qualifications and actual knowledge of this subject?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by vh5150 »

Raggs wrote:
vh5150 wrote:
fishfoodie wrote: and what expertise do you bring that allows you to critique Nature's experts ?
... none. But I like to read and hear other experts views. I quite the fan of up/down analysis vs left/right. Well researched and measured views deserve attention in these strange times.
And what expertise do you have to judge the other experts qualifications and actual knowledge of this subject?
... none ... other than to read a broad and diverse amount of material for and against, pros and cons
and forming my own opinions ... which is ultimately a better cocktail than watching CNN, BBC or Fox News. Although I have to say Aljazeera shits all over the other news channels for
straight, down the barrel coverage.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Sefton »

So you have insufficient expertise or knowledge but you feel equipped to make a judgement, that is some hubris.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by C69 »

So we have sent 50,000 tests to the USA.
And now the leaks from no. 10 are starting with briefs against Hankcock. Blame game coming now.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

vh5150 wrote:
Raggs wrote:
vh5150 wrote:
fishfoodie wrote: and what expertise do you bring that allows you to critique Nature's experts ?
... none. But I like to read and hear other experts views. I quite the fan of up/down analysis vs left/right. Well researched and measured views deserve attention in these strange times.
And what expertise do you have to judge the other experts qualifications and actual knowledge of this subject?
... none ... other than to read a broad and diverse amount of material for and against, pros and cons
and forming my own opinions ... which is ultimately a better cocktail than watching CNN, BBC or Fox News. Although I have to say Aljazeera shits all over the other news channels for
straight, down the barrel coverage.
If you have no expertise or qualifications, how are you in a position to judge what's worth considering, and what's nonsense?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by vh5150 »

Sefton wrote:So you have insufficient expertise or knowledge but you feel equipped to make a judgement, that is some hubris.
Not ready to make “judgement” but willing to be open to the possibilities and see the leaders debate these sensibly. The better we understand the “origins” the better the chance of developing a vaccine or treatment plan ... based off gold standard randomised, double blind trials. My advice ... plant a garden. It’s a marathon.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by C69 »

vh5150 wrote:
Sefton wrote:So you have insufficient expertise or knowledge but you feel equipped to make a judgement, that is some hubris.
Not ready to make “judgement” but willing to be open to the possibilities and see the leaders debate these sensibly. The better we understand the “origins” the better the chance of developing a vaccine or treatment plan ... based off gold standard randomised, double blind trials. My advice ... plant a garden. It’s a marathon.
You won't be able to do randomised controlled double blinded tests in this situation.
For clear and obvious reasons. It seems clear to everyone that we in the UK need to know why we are such an outlier.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Zico »

vh5150 wrote:
Sefton wrote:So you have insufficient expertise or knowledge but you feel equipped to make a judgement, that is some hubris.
Not ready to make “judgement” but willing to be open to the possibilities and see the leaders debate these sensibly. The better we understand the “origins” the better the chance of developing a vaccine or treatment plan ... based off gold standard randomised, double blind trials. My advice ... plant a garden. It’s a marathon.
Do you use YouTube tutorials for dispensing drugs?

You've got to keep an open mind on what may or may not be best practice.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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I have to say I find the comparison stats country vs country constantly mind blowing. It just makes no sense to me. Has anyone sen any high quality analysis on this?

You have a group of countries that could be said to be doing poorly - eg deaths per 100k population around 30+, which are Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands. And of course Belgium (absolutely huge at around 75% but said to include more deaths in their figures than most).

Then you have Canada at 12%, Norway at 4%, Australia and Japan under 1%.

Obviously with some countries you might raise questions about their data or transparency but you wouldn't with the above and the spread of those countries is very different in terms of climate (for instance).

The USA is often said to be doing appalingly but has a lower rate than Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium.

I really can't get my head around it. Clearly as many say it could take months or years to understand but I haven't even seen any decent speculation. Obviously Spain, Italy, UK, France have big populations, loads of airports and travel and the like, but equally Canada and Japan are big enough countries.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Sonny Blount »

Enzedder wrote:
Sonny Blount wrote: Certainly NZ's snitches are a pack of twats.
That remains to be seen. If the numbers shoot back up, the quarantine ignorers will be proven to be the twats

There will be a resurgence of cases at some point. It is unlikely to be caused by what people are doing outside.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
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Post by Openside »

Sonny Blount wrote:Image
Yes that makes perfect sense :nod: :nod: :?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by vh5150 »

If you look at death bs resolved cases .. those that lead to recovery or death, it starts to make more sense vs various countries strategies eg early lockdown of borders, total lockdown domestically etc vs doing fark all.

To date the world mortality rate vs resolved cases is 16%. It was at 21% for the previous month. Slow adaptors are learning the hard way eg Brazil. Sweden’s mortality rate was at 71% for a few weeks .. now at 40% as recoveries perk up. AUS and NZ at 2% and 1.5% respectively. Aus hospitalisation rate per capita 3-4 times larger than NZ. Their “looser” restrictions may have led to an asymptomatic time bomb ... time will tell. Covid-19 is one tough mother fucker ... guaranteed 2nd waves that will be deadlier if you get too complacent.

Stay safe!
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Most people are blaming the Tories.
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SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.
Two thirds, I think it is, of our deaths are in residential settings and we have included all deaths related to covid, even some (a couple of hundred) that haven't had a confirmed test yet. Nearly all our recent cases were associated with clusters so it's nearly suppressed here.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

CM11 wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.
Two thirds, I think it is, of our deaths are in residential settings and we have included all deaths related to covid, even some (a couple of hundred) that haven't had a confirmed test yet. Nearly all our recent cases were associated with clusters so it's nearly suppressed here.

Which wasn’t of course the question asked.
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Post by Clogs »

SamShark wrote:I have to say I find the comparison stats country vs country constantly mind blowing. It just makes no sense to me. Has anyone sen any high quality analysis on this?

You have a group of countries that could be said to be doing poorly - eg deaths per 100k population around 30+, which are Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands. And of course Belgium (absolutely huge at around 75% but said to include more deaths in their figures than most).

Then you have Canada at 12%, Norway at 4%, Australia and Japan under 1%.

Obviously with some countries you might raise questions about their data or transparency but you wouldn't with the above and the spread of those countries is very different in terms of climate (for instance).

The USA is often said to be doing appalingly but has a lower rate than Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium.

I really can't get my head around it. Clearly as many say it could take months or years to understand but I haven't even seen any decent speculation. Obviously Spain, Italy, UK, France have big populations, loads of airports and travel and the like, but equally Canada and Japan are big enough countries.

There is one vital stst missing in all the data. The infection numbers. If this thing behaves the same in humans regardless of their location then the rate it kills will be quite similar. If twice as many people are infected in France than in Germany, then roughly twice as many people will die. Some minor variations will occur based on demographic, access to healthcare etc, but in the western world this model should be fairly close.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Is Ireland worse than similar countries? Maybe based on officially reported deaths, how about by excess death rate? The whole counting nursing homes or suspected deaths has been done to, well, death.

Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.

Timing plays a huge part. Countries that had their outbreaks early were hit very hard. Those that saw what was coming and had a chance to bed themselves were better able to cope.
On that note, when everyone else was gradually building restrictions, the UK government was telling everyone to carry on as normal. That has to have an effect.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by SamShark »

Nolanator wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Is Ireland worse than similar countries? Maybe based on officially reported deaths, how about by excess death rate? The whole counting nursing homes or suspected deaths has been done to, well, death.

Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.

Timing plays a huge part. Countries that had their outbreaks early were hit very hard. Those that saw what was coming and had a chance to bed themselves were better able to cope.
On that note, when everyone else was gradually building restrictions, the UK government was telling everyone to carry on as normal. That has to have an effect.
Not sure why everything is Ireland vs UK - I really don't think my post has anything to do with Ireland vs the UK.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

SamShark wrote:I have to say I find the comparison stats country vs country constantly mind blowing. It just makes no sense to me. Has anyone sen any high quality analysis on this?

You have a group of countries that could be said to be doing poorly - eg deaths per 100k population around 30+, which are Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands. And of course Belgium (absolutely huge at around 75% but said to include more deaths in their figures than most).

Then you have Canada at 12%, Norway at 4%, Australia and Japan under 1%.

Obviously with some countries you might raise questions about their data or transparency but you wouldn't with the above and the spread of those countries is very different in terms of climate (for instance).

The USA is often said to be doing appalingly but has a lower rate than Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium.

I really can't get my head around it. Clearly as many say it could take months or years to understand but I haven't even seen any decent speculation. Obviously Spain, Italy, UK, France have big populations, loads of airports and travel and the like, but equally Canada and Japan are big enough countries.

Canada has a hugely lower population density as well. It has just over half the population of the UK but 40 times the space. It also borders only one country. Even in the USA. It borders 2 countries and it's really only where it's most international of hubs and major population centres are where the virus is spreading, e.g. New York and the East coast. I believe major factors in the spread is population size and density and how well connected the international hubs are and the countries geographical isolation. Outside Asia only Germany seems to have bucked the trend, and that is due to the fact they could produce their own COVID-19 tests and trap the spread early on. But even they struggled with PPE and had to be told off by the EU to share medical supplies.

But this is only the beginning. There will be more waves. South Korea just left lockdown and they have seen a sudden surge in cases again, despite being the country that probably has the capacity to control the spread the best. Which switches back to the whole, if it was contained to fast will it only spread again and again?
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Post by henry »

SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Is Ireland worse than similar countries? Maybe based on officially reported deaths, how about by excess death rate? The whole counting nursing homes or suspected deaths has been done to, well, death.

Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.

Timing plays a huge part. Countries that had their outbreaks early were hit very hard. Those that saw what was coming and had a chance to bed themselves were better able to cope.
On that note, when everyone else was gradually building restrictions, the UK government was telling everyone to carry on as normal. That has to have an effect.
Not sure why everything is Ireland vs UK - I really don't think my post has anything to do with Ireland vs the UK.
Oh you sweet naive boy.
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henry
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by henry »

bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Most people are blaming the Tories.
I thought the Tories were enjoying record approval ratings?
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6.Jones
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by 6.Jones »

eldanielfire wrote:
SamShark wrote:I have to say I find the comparison stats country vs country constantly mind blowing. It just makes no sense to me. Has anyone sen any high quality analysis on this?

You have a group of countries that could be said to be doing poorly - eg deaths per 100k population around 30+, which are Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands. And of course Belgium (absolutely huge at around 75% but said to include more deaths in their figures than most).

Then you have Canada at 12%, Norway at 4%, Australia and Japan under 1%.

Obviously with some countries you might raise questions about their data or transparency but you wouldn't with the above and the spread of those countries is very different in terms of climate (for instance).

The USA is often said to be doing appalingly but has a lower rate than Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium.

I really can't get my head around it. Clearly as many say it could take months or years to understand but I haven't even seen any decent speculation. Obviously Spain, Italy, UK, France have big populations, loads of airports and travel and the like, but equally Canada and Japan are big enough countries.

Canada has a hugely lower population density as well. It has just over half the population of the UK but 40 times the space. It also borders only one country. Even in the USA. It borders 2 countries and it's really only where it's most international of hubs and major population centres are where the virus is spreading, e.g. New York and the East coast. I believe major factors in the spread is population size and density and how well connected the international hubs are and the countries geographical isolation. Outside Asia only Germany seems to have bucked the trend, and that is due to the fact they could produce their own COVID-19 tests and trap the spread early on. But even they struggled with PPE and had to be told off by the EU to share medical supplies.

But this is only the beginning. There will be more waves. South Korea just left lockdown and they have seen a sudden surge in cases again, despite being the country that probably has the capacity to control the spread the best. Which switches back to the whole, if it was contained to fast will it only spread again and again?
If the world opened up then the United States would a net exporter of the virus. From a health point of view, Canada and Mexico can't afford to open their borders. That could get tasty.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Is Ireland worse than similar countries? Maybe based on officially reported deaths, how about by excess death rate? The whole counting nursing homes or suspected deaths has been done to, well, death.

Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.

Timing plays a huge part. Countries that had their outbreaks early were hit very hard. Those that saw what was coming and had a chance to bed themselves were better able to cope.
On that note, when everyone else was gradually building restrictions, the UK government was telling everyone to carry on as normal. That has to have an effect.
Not sure why everything is Ireland vs UK - I really don't think my post has anything to do with Ireland vs the UK.
Come on, you've been on PR for how many years? You've read the political and Brexit threads. To certain people it's always obsessively Ireland vs UK.
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