Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Mog The Almighty wrote:
message #2527204 wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
Margin_Walker wrote:MOG's back dropping truth bombs he heard on Rogan again. Cool
I'm not saying if he's right or wrong, I'm just saying that's what he said.

Of course, when everyone was freaking out when this started, I posted an interview by a world-renown virologist and pandemic disease expert making similar statements and got shouted off the thread. It doesn't matter if it's Musk or anyone else, unless it's dooms-day prophecies and drama queen sensationalism, it's not welcome here.
You were shouted off the thread for saying it was just flu. When clearly it wasn't and 10% of those who had it were being hospitalised.
No, I said it was a type of particularly bad flu. And I was wrong, it's a type of particularly bad cold, there is a difference. Someone would say that's splitting hairs, but it was enough to send the usual suspects into meltdown. In any case, I conceded that and stood corrected.

10% being hospitalised? :roll: Where do you get that figure? 10% of cases that were bad enough to warrant testing required hospitalisation ... maybe. What number of the population had it and never even realised it, brushed it off as a common cold? Or where even completely asymptomatic? You don't know those numbers, I know because even the experts don't know those numbers.

To put things in perspective, the common flu kills about 650,000 people a year. Obesity kills about 3 million people each year. So far -- and I realise this will get worse -- we're almost half way through the year and corona virus has killed 285,000.

Yes, it's very bad and yes, we don't take the same type of lock-down precautions against flu or obesity, without those measures no-doubt it would have been far worse. I'm not saying it's nothing, but some perspective is useful.
In Ireland over 10% of positive results have been hospitalised and that figure doesn't include half our deaths, as they never made it to hospital. Yes, we'll have missed cases. Hopefully loads but even if 1% require hospitalisation, that's quite high, yeah?

In terms of of death rate, I believe NY has already hit 0.1% deaths and that's recorded deaths too.

But yeah, just wash your hands.
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message #2527204
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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0.1% in New Jersey, I think. 0.14% in NY now
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DOB
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DOB »

CM11 wrote: In terms of of death rate, I believe NY has already hit 0.1% deaths and that's recorded deaths too.

But yeah, just wash your hands.
NY and NJ are both over 1,000 deaths per 1M population. Connecticut is 832.
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PourSomeRuggerOnMe
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by PourSomeRuggerOnMe »

Elon Musk, outside of his autistically narrow engineering expertise, is a fucking idiot with a history of drug-induced episodes of spraying nonsensical shite all over Twitter. He just named his kid after an Excel formula ffs.

He's also a billionaire whose fortune is dependent upon the labour of thousands of people. His exhortations to reopen businesses and get back to normal is nothing more than shameless self-interest with no concern whatsoever for people's health or wellbeing.

He is very close to the bottom of the list of people we should be listening to about the virus, and anyone who can't see that is a stupid cunt.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Openside »

eldanielfire wrote:
Lemoentjie wrote:Given that a vaccine will take at least 1.5 years, and the virus isn't going to simply go away, isn't comparing deaths at such a short stage quite pointless?

All it tells you are which countries have almost no immunity. Lockdown isn't sustainable for 1.5 years.
I and few of us, have been saying this nearly since it hit europe and people moaned about herd mentality. People and figure sin the media keep ignoring the actual Science. At no point did a lockdown ever say it will get rid of the virus. It was always going to return afterwards and even the "countries with the best response" are seeing rises the instant lockdowns are relaxed.

People thinking a Vaccine was possibly months away when no vaccine ever is developed that quickly from scratch were really rehashing fairy tales. If this acted like any disease we know, it was always going to run to next year. By then most of population will be infected in some capacity.

Not sure why everyone is hanging on for a vaccine, I was under the impression that no corona virus had been sorted by vaccine (see common cold)
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

DOB wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:Antibody test, £93- 24hr turnaround. May go for it seeing that I’m out there being breathed upon.
What's the accuracy? Does it lean towards false negative or false positive?

They've opened up testing to all in California now, my missus went on Saturday, but it's still only for current infection, nothing on antibodies/past infection/recovery.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Fat Albert »

More evidence that Neil Ferguson's analysis was not worth the electrons that his 15,000 lines of legacy code executed.

This paper demolishes Ferguson's reputation further, using illustrations with data from Sweden the whole basis of Health Services being overwhelmed without a lock down is demonstrably false.

Yet another headline seeking consensus-rent-a-scientist exposed as numerically illiterate. Removing his financial assets as punishment for being an incompetent ass might be one atom in the planet sized lock down financial bill but at least he'll suffer along with all those whose anxiety about money and their future is now off the chart!

Why Herd Immunity To Covid-19 Is Likely Reached Somewhere Between 7% And 24% Population Infection Rate

And please, read the fcuking paper before attacking the messengers
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Openside, I'm in the boat that we won't get a vaccine but I am hopeful we'll develop effective treatment in record time.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Clouseau »

Mog The Almighty wrote:
CM11 wrote: Oh ffs mog. It's not just a nasty cold.
Erm ... yes it is. That's exactly what it is.
:thumbup: I'll let the people I know who felt like absolute shit for two weeks and took another to fully recover that it was just a nasty cold.
Everything's cool.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Openside »

CM11 wrote:Openside, I'm in the boat that we won't get a vaccine but I am hopeful we'll develop effective treatment in record time.

Yup Drugs to treat Covid ICU patients is much more doable short term than the vaccine. (which is potentially no doable at all)
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

CM11 wrote:Openside, I'm in the boat that we won't get a vaccine but I am hopeful we'll develop effective treatment in record time.
Yeah same, that was always my view.
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

Openside wrote:
CM11 wrote:Openside, I'm in the boat that we won't get a vaccine but I am hopeful we'll develop effective treatment in record time.

Yup Drugs to treat Covid ICU patients is much more doable short term than the vaccine. (which is potentially no doable at all)
I'd be more hopeful than that, treatment that avoids ICU would be a lot better. Although possibly not possible in the worst affected cases where it accelerates within hours.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Clouseau »

Fat Albert wrote:More evidence that Neil Ferguson's analysis was not worth the electrons that his 15,000 lines of legacy code executed.

This paper demolishes Ferguson's reputation further, using illustrations with data from Sweden the whole basis of Health Services being overwhelmed without a lock down is demonstrably false.

Yet another headline seeking consensus-rent-a-scientist exposed as numerically illiterate. Removing his financial assets as punishment for being an incompetent ass might be one atom in the planet sized lock down financial bill but at least he'll suffer along with all those whose anxiety about money and their future is now off the chart!

Why Herd Immunity To Covid-19 Is Likely Reached Somewhere Between 7% And 24% Population Infection Rate

And please, read the fcuking paper before attacking the messengers
Hmm… Silly question but are we sure that those who caught it have developped immunity ?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Mog The Almighty »

Duff Paddy wrote:
Erm ... yes it is. That's exactly what it is.
In what way is it “exactly” like a nasty cold. How many otherwise fit and well people get admitted to ICU with a nasty cold? How did a nasty cold cause so many deaths in Italy, Spain, the UK etc? What f**king planet are you on?
Planet reality. It's a bad one for sure, but it still a cold.

Clouseau wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
CM11 wrote: Oh ffs mog. It's not just a nasty cold.
Erm ... yes it is. That's exactly what it is.
:thumbup: I'll let the people I know who felt like absolute shit for two weeks and took another to fully recover that it was just a nasty cold.
Everything's cool.
It is, literally, in medical terms, a type of cold virus, no matter whether that sits well with you or not.

Openside wrote:Not sure why everyone is hanging on for a vaccine, I was under the impression that no corona virus had been sorted by vaccine (see common cold)
The infectious disease expert on Harris' podcast mentioned that possibly one upside of the amount of money and research going into this coron-virus might actually see or accelerate the development of a vaccine for the common cold. It's not impossible, just nobody has bothered much so far.
Last edited by Mog The Almighty on Mon May 11, 2020 6:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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6.Jones
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by 6.Jones »

As discussed...
Face coverings should be worn in enclosed public spaces, government advises
People told to avoid using surgical masks, which are needed by health workers.

People in England should wear face coverings when in enclosed public spaces, the government has said.

Everyone is advised – but not obliged – to wear a scarf, homemade mask or shop-bought mask to cover their nose and mouth.

The government said surgical-grade masks should be reserved for medical workers, however.

Scientists believe face coverings can help prevent an infectious person who does not have coronavirus symptoms from passing on the disease. But they do not protect the person wearing them.
All of which is correct.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 08516.html
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

In Ireland over 10% of positive results have been hospitalised and that figure doesn't include half our deaths, as they never made it to hospital. Yes, we'll have missed cases. Hopefully loads but even if 1% require hospitalisation, that's quite high, yeah?

In terms of of death rate, I believe NY has already hit 0.1% deaths and that's recorded deaths too.

But yeah, just wash your hands.

Well washing hands is immensely effective at virus suppression, so I bloody hope people still are.

You’re being a massive tit about the 10% requiring hospitalisation as well. It’s meaningless unless you know many are asymptomatic .....


You’ve been a massive doom monger since the start of all this, your scare stories not borne out.
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Diego
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Diego »

If the government want people to wear face coverings why don't they just enforce it?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by 6.Jones »

How to wear and make a cloth face covering

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I blame the Tories.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... e-covering
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by 6.Jones »

Diego wrote:If the government want people to wear face coverings why don't they just enforce it?
Because the efficacy doesn't yet meet the standard of a proof. After more testing it may become compulsory.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

6.Jones wrote:
How to wear and make a cloth face covering

Image
I blame the Tories.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... e-covering

Tell me how protected you’re ganna feel on the Tube to Canary Wharf and show me another graph with a T-shirt .
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

6.Jones wrote:
Diego wrote:If the government want people to wear face coverings why don't they just enforce it?
Because the efficacy doesn't yet meet the standard of a proof. After more testing it may become compulsory.

What grade of T shirt will be the legal one do you reckon?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Well no, 10% being hospitalised, and a good percentage of those dying.

10% of what is being hospitalised?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by 6.Jones »

Openside wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Lemoentjie wrote:Given that a vaccine will take at least 1.5 years, and the virus isn't going to simply go away, isn't comparing deaths at such a short stage quite pointless?

All it tells you are which countries have almost no immunity. Lockdown isn't sustainable for 1.5 years.
I and few of us, have been saying this nearly since it hit europe and people moaned about herd mentality. People and figure sin the media keep ignoring the actual Science. At no point did a lockdown ever say it will get rid of the virus. It was always going to return afterwards and even the "countries with the best response" are seeing rises the instant lockdowns are relaxed.

People thinking a Vaccine was possibly months away when no vaccine ever is developed that quickly from scratch were really rehashing fairy tales. If this acted like any disease we know, it was always going to run to next year. By then most of population will be infected in some capacity.

Not sure why everyone is hanging on for a vaccine, I was under the impression that no corona virus had been sorted by vaccine (see common cold)
That's true there's never been a coronavirus vaccine. But there can be drugs to mitigate the symptoms.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Clouseau »

Mog The Almighty wrote:
Clouseau wrote:
Mog The Almighty wrote:
CM11 wrote: Oh ffs mog. It's not just a nasty cold.
Erm ... yes it is. That's exactly what it is.
:thumbup: I'll let the people I know who felt like absolute shit for two weeks and took another to fully recover that it was just a nasty cold.
Everything's cool.
It is, literally, in medical terms, a type of cold virus, no matter whether that sits well with you or not.
Ah, excellent. I'll see if it sits well with them. I'm sure it will make a difference.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by 6.Jones »

bimboman wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Diego wrote:If the government want people to wear face coverings why don't they just enforce it?
Because the efficacy doesn't yet meet the standard of a proof. After more testing it may become compulsory.

What grade of T shirt will be the legal one do you reckon?
Good question. The current answer appears to be 'any'. The cloth acts as a curtain. The drool then falls down onto the tips of your winkelpickers. Clearly, 'manly' mesh t-shirts wont work.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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Fat Albert wrote:More evidence that Neil Ferguson's analysis was not worth the electrons that his 15,000 lines of legacy code executed.

This paper demolishes Ferguson's reputation further, using illustrations with data from Sweden the whole basis of Health Services being overwhelmed without a lock down is demonstrably false.

Yet another headline seeking consensus-rent-a-scientist exposed as numerically illiterate. Removing his financial assets as punishment for being an incompetent ass might be one atom in the planet sized lock down financial bill but at least he'll suffer along with all those whose anxiety about money and their future is now off the chart!

Why Herd Immunity To Covid-19 Is Likely Reached Somewhere Between 7% And 24% Population Infection Rate

And please, read the fcuking paper before attacking the messengers
Interesting, but it appears to assume that Sweden haven't introduced any social distancing measures.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

Can somebody with a decent brain comment on the antibody test i posted?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

6.Jones wrote:
bimboman wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Diego wrote:If the government want people to wear face coverings why don't they just enforce it?
Because the efficacy doesn't yet meet the standard of a proof. After more testing it may become compulsory.

What grade of T shirt will be the legal one do you reckon?
Good question. The current answer appears to be 'any'. The cloth acts as a curtain. The drool then falls down onto the tips of your winkelpickers. Clearly, 'manly' mesh t-shirts wont work.

All T shirts are a mesh.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

DragsterDriver wrote:Can somebody with a decent brain comment on the antibody test i posted?

I’ve no brain but looks worth it. My GP has been offering a private one for a few weeks now, bought from Germany.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Rinkals »

6.Jones wrote:As discussed...
Face coverings should be worn in enclosed public spaces, government advises
People told to avoid using surgical masks, which are needed by health workers.

People in England should wear face coverings when in enclosed public spaces, the government has said.

Everyone is advised – but not obliged – to wear a scarf, homemade mask or shop-bought mask to cover their nose and mouth.

The government said surgical-grade masks should be reserved for medical workers, however.

Scientists believe face coverings can help prevent an infectious person who does not have coronavirus symptoms from passing on the disease. But they do not protect the person wearing them.
All of which is correct.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 08516.html
Apparently not.

The bored's experts have decreed that masks do nothing to reduce the virus and are actively instrumental in spreading it.

So sucks to your scientific papers.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Rinkals »

bimboman wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
bimboman wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Diego wrote:If the government want people to wear face coverings why don't they just enforce it?
Because the efficacy doesn't yet meet the standard of a proof. After more testing it may become compulsory.

What grade of T shirt will be the legal one do you reckon?
Good question. The current answer appears to be 'any'. The cloth acts as a curtain. The drool then falls down onto the tips of your winkelpickers. Clearly, 'manly' mesh t-shirts wont work.

All T shirts are a mesh.
Do you have this amount of difficulty in understanding everything?

It's quite clearly the 'manly' mesh t-shirts that are ineffective.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by sorCrer »

message #2527204 wrote:
Fat Albert wrote:More evidence that Neil Ferguson's analysis was not worth the electrons that his 15,000 lines of legacy code executed.

This paper demolishes Ferguson's reputation further, using illustrations with data from Sweden the whole basis of Health Services being overwhelmed without a lock down is demonstrably false.

Yet another headline seeking consensus-rent-a-scientist exposed as numerically illiterate. Removing his financial assets as punishment for being an incompetent ass might be one atom in the planet sized lock down financial bill but at least he'll suffer along with all those whose anxiety about money and their future is now off the chart!

Why Herd Immunity To Covid-19 Is Likely Reached Somewhere Between 7% And 24% Population Infection Rate

And please, read the fcuking paper before attacking the messengers
Interesting, but it appears to assume that Sweden haven't introduced any social distancing measures.
Why is there ongoing discussion about herd immunity when immunity hasn't been established yet?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

Guy in the tube on BBC London with his mask on his chin telling us the government need to have the police on the tube for people for not wearing one.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by 6.Jones »

Fat Albert wrote:More evidence that Neil Ferguson's analysis was not worth the electrons that his 15,000 lines of legacy code executed.

This paper demolishes Ferguson's reputation further, using illustrations with data from Sweden the whole basis of Health Services being overwhelmed without a lock down is demonstrably false.

Yet another headline seeking consensus-rent-a-scientist exposed as numerically illiterate. Removing his financial assets as punishment for being an incompetent ass might be one atom in the planet sized lock down financial bill but at least he'll suffer along with all those whose anxiety about money and their future is now off the chart!

Why Herd Immunity To Covid-19 Is Likely Reached Somewhere Between 7% And 24% Population Infection Rate

And please, read the fcuking paper before attacking the messengers
It says the herd immunity threshold [HIT] is between 7-24%. That's not quite the same thing as herd immunity. The herd immunity threshold is where the growth rate slows below exponential growth [i.e. R0 < 1]. Herd immunity is where the disease is stopped from spreading at all, usually due to vaccination. With natural immunity, catching the disease takes the place of vaccination, meaning everyone [or nearly everyone] still has to catch the disease for it to be stopped.
Last edited by 6.Jones on Mon May 11, 2020 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Sandstorm »

bimboman wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
How to wear and make a cloth face covering

Image
I blame the Tories.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... e-covering

Tell me how protected you’re ganna feel on the Tube to Canary Wharf and show me another graph with a T-shirt .
Just cover your fat gob, you contrarian wanker.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Raggs »

DragsterDriver wrote:Can somebody with a decent brain comment on the antibody test i posted?
Looks fairly accurate, are those the results from the test you would be getting, or just results on a antibody test. Every test has it's own range.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by message #2527204 »

sorCrer wrote:
message #2527204 wrote:
Fat Albert wrote:More evidence that Neil Ferguson's analysis was not worth the electrons that his 15,000 lines of legacy code executed.

This paper demolishes Ferguson's reputation further, using illustrations with data from Sweden the whole basis of Health Services being overwhelmed without a lock down is demonstrably false.

Yet another headline seeking consensus-rent-a-scientist exposed as numerically illiterate. Removing his financial assets as punishment for being an incompetent ass might be one atom in the planet sized lock down financial bill but at least he'll suffer along with all those whose anxiety about money and their future is now off the chart!

Why Herd Immunity To Covid-19 Is Likely Reached Somewhere Between 7% And 24% Population Infection Rate

And please, read the fcuking paper before attacking the messengers
Interesting, but it appears to assume that Sweden haven't introduced any social distancing measures.
Why is there ongoing discussion about herd immunity when immunity hasn't been established yet?
The WHO document above seems to confirm that immunity occurs, or at least that antibodies occur.
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CM11
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by CM11 »

There definitely needs to be better education on masks. But I suppose it's easier to just not bother.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Gospel »

CM11 wrote:There definitely needs to be better education on masks.
I suspect they will become a thing.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Ulsters Red Hand »

Why are Brits so confused about Boris? I still don’t see anything unclear on what he had said. Serious question
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