Do we know that's the IFR? Seems to be the lower end of the ranges I'm seeing at the moment?Clogs wrote:Anonymous. wrote:Don't know how they work it out but like for like Sweden with twice the population of Finland has currently around 15 times as many deaths. France has same size population as the UK and 30,000 deaths. 7 times as many deaths would be 210,000. Even if they are way out we are talking overwhelmed health services and absolute carnage.Clogs wrote:Anonymous. wrote:Lockdowns in Europe saved millions of lives
The Imperial study assessed the impact of restrictions in 11 European countries - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK - up to the beginning of May.
By that time, around 130,000 people had died from coronavirus in those countries.
The researchers used disease modelling to predict how many deaths there would have been if lockdown had not happened. And the work comes from the same group that guided the UK's decision to go into lockdown.
UK changes course amid death toll fears
They estimated 3.2 million people would have died by 4 May if not for measures such as closing businesses and telling people to stay at home.
That meant lockdown saved around 3.1 million lives, including 470,000 in the UK, 690,000 in France and 630,000 in Italy, the report in the journal Nature shows.
"Lockdown averted millions of deaths, those deaths would have been a tragedy," said Dr Seth Flaxman, from Imperial.
How many people would have to have become infected in Europe for that model to be accurate?
This is why models can be so misleading. They have reported that lockdown have saved 470 000 people in the UK. Now given we know the approximate IFR is 0.5%, it means in order for 470 000 people to die 94 million people in the UK would have to become infected. That model has some flaws....
And as pointed out. It's not just covid19 that people will die of when there's no beds in hospitals left. In addition, that IFR is when you have the facilities to treat, covid alone will be more deadly with no beds.