Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

[Clogs]

How do we know?

I dunno. Rocket science or Voodoo or something I guess.

A back of the envelope reverse engineer of the IFR. 18000 infection - 80 deaths = 0.4% or 0.0044. Going back in the graph to when there were around 1000 deaths per day (ave) x 250 = 250 000 infections per day. Now this is obviously skewed because of the vastly differing IFR's by age bracket, but there must have been reasonably close to 250 000 infections per day for close to a month?

That'd give something around 7.5 million cases in that month - over 10% of the UK's population in one month - seems rather high to me.

It does seem high, but we are getting a better understanding of the data. The deaths we 100% know. The IFR is now a lot better understood and although there would absolutely be some margin of error in the number it is unlikely to be over or under estimating by more than 20% now.

It might be that there were from 6.5M to 8.5M infected and given London is so populated, it may be realistic?

[Farva]

The UK has around 55k excess deaths. I appreciate that heart attack deaths, etc increased. But at the same time traffic deaths, flu deaths decreased.
Dunno if that cancels out, but without any better data Ill assume it does.
55k deaths at 0.5% = 11m cases. So thats ballpark to the 7.5m mentioned.

[Clogs]

The UK has around 55k excess deaths. I appreciate that heart attack deaths, etc increased. But at the same time traffic deaths, flu deaths decreased.
Dunno if that cancels out, but without any better data Ill assume it does.
55k deaths at 0.5% = 11m cases. So thats ballpark to the 7.5m mentioned.

Hmm, that is another good way of measuring it. And give or take a 20% variance in the IFR it could be as low as 9M and as high as 13M.
If this does hold reasonably true, then this second wave isn't less deadly, it is infecting way less (it is just that more people are now being tested).

[Farva]

The UK has around 55k excess deaths. I appreciate that heart attack deaths, etc increased. But at the same time traffic deaths, flu deaths decreased.
Dunno if that cancels out, but without any better data Ill assume it does.
55k deaths at 0.5% = 11m cases. So thats ballpark to the 7.5m mentioned.

Hmm, that is another good way of measuring it. And give or take a 20% variance in the IFR it could be as low as 9M and as high as 13M.
If this does hold reasonably true, then this second wave isn't less deadly, it is infecting way less (it is just that more people are now being tested).

I heard something the other day that as much as 10% of the worlds population has been infected to date!
That suggests that deaths are more like 3.5m are dead now, not 1m. That is believable though. I think the numbers of deaths in the 3rd world are massively unreported due to many dying at home, so not being recorded.

[Clogs]

The UK has around 55k excess deaths. I appreciate that heart attack deaths, etc increased. But at the same time traffic deaths, flu deaths decreased.
Dunno if that cancels out, but without any better data Ill assume it does.
55k deaths at 0.5% = 11m cases. So thats ballpark to the 7.5m mentioned.

Hmm, that is another good way of measuring it. And give or take a 20% variance in the IFR it could be as low as 9M and as high as 13M.
If this does hold reasonably true, then this second wave isn't less deadly, it is infecting way less (it is just that more people are now being tested).

I heard something the other day that as much as 10% of the worlds population has been infected to date!
That suggests that deaths are more like 3.5m are dead now, not 1m. That is believable though. I think the numbers of deaths in the 3rd world are massively unreported due to many dying at home, so not being recorded.

Interesting too. I read a piece on how well Africa as a whole had managed this. IN part aided by the fact the median age of the population in Africa is 19.7 years...

[Enzedder]

Interesting too. I read a piece on how well Africa as a whole had managed this. IN part aided by the fact the median age of the population in Africa is 19.7 years...

They say you learn something every day - that's today's fact.

[Clogs]

Joe Rogan's latest podcast. He has a Covid testing machine that takes 15 minutes to give you a result. Victoria still takes 24 hours?

[Pat the Ex Mat]

Joe Rogan's latest podcast. He has a Covid testing machine that takes 15 minutes to give you a result. Victoria still takes 24 hours?

Realistically, if you isolate after the test, that difference in time makes no difference to contact tracing

[Clogs]

Joe Rogan's latest podcast. He has a Covid testing machine that takes 15 minutes to give you a result. Victoria still takes 24 hours?

Realistically, if you isolate after the test, that difference in time makes no difference to contact tracing

I reckon it would make a significant difference in effort for contact tracing? If you found out 15 minutes after testing that you were clear they wouldn't need to expend any resources in tracking down your contacts etc. They could instead focus immediately on the person that does show up positive. Rather than have to treat all suspicious cases the same.

100 tests on those that had some contact with an existing case with a 24 hour wait would require a significant amount of manpower to start the contact tracing. If 97 of those return a negative result that is a huge amount of wasted effort.

[Mog The Almighty]

How do we know?

I dunno. Rocket science or Voodoo or something I guess.

A back of the envelope reverse engineer of the IFR. 18000 infection - 80 deaths = 0.4% or 0.0044. Going back in the graph to when there were around 1000 deaths per day (ave) x 250 = 250 000 infections per day. Now this is obviously skewed because of the vastly differing IFR's by age bracket, but there must have been reasonably close to 250 000 infections per day for close to a month?

That'd give something around 7.5 million cases in that month - over 10% of the UK's population in one month - seems rather high to me.

Yeah, I think if it was that high, the whole country would have been infected by now. By four months ago as it spread exponentially.

I think it's pretty obvious that nobody really knows what's going on. I suspect it's probably a mix of a lot of things, including having burned off "the dry tinder" (sorry), people becoming more cautious, better medical care and possibly the virus becoming less dangerous (yes, I know people hate that idea, it's not very exciting or anything, but the fact remains that is how past viruses have behaved and right now it's expert vs. expert trying to figure it out, so as far as us laymen go, it's sitll a possibility).

[CM11]

Initial fatalities are skewed by care homes and lack of understanding of the disease. Also some areas being overwhelmed.

[Farva]

The UK has around 55k excess deaths. I appreciate that heart attack deaths, etc increased. But at the same time traffic deaths, flu deaths decreased.
Dunno if that cancels out, but without any better data Ill assume it does.
55k deaths at 0.5% = 11m cases. So thats ballpark to the 7.5m mentioned.

Hmm, that is another good way of measuring it. And give or take a 20% variance in the IFR it could be as low as 9M and as high as 13M.
If this does hold reasonably true, then this second wave isn't less deadly, it is infecting way less (it is just that more people are now being tested).

I heard something the other day that as much as 10% of the worlds population has been infected to date!
That suggests that deaths are more like 3.5m are dead now, not 1m. That is believable though. I think the numbers of deaths in the 3rd world are massively unreported due to many dying at home, so not being recorded.

Interesting too. I read a piece on how well Africa as a whole had managed this. IN part aided by the fact the median age of the population in Africa is 19.7 years...

On the flip side, countries like India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines (2b people, twice the population of Africa), etc suffer massive air pollution which is linked to worse Covid reactions - https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyi ... south-asia

From experience, people in the Philippines for instance suffer high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, etc. I picked them because I know them. They might be young but there are lots of underlying conditions. Plus air pollution. Cases are comparatively low because it costs an average person a months wage to get tested. No one is getting tested. And if they get sick hospital bills bankrupt people. No one is going to the doctor. My guess is the death rate will be dire. And other SE Asian countries will be the same.

And in these countries, social distancing is impossible. People only have one room for a family, so they all sleep together. They don’t own a fridge so need to buy food everyday. There is no social security so if they don’t work they don’t eat.

[Average Joe]

They're also a very social people. When there's a wedding you have to slaughter enough baboy to feed the whole village as everyone just turns up and joins the party.

[Hong Kong]

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-ze ... aign-event

Hopefully not RR but quite a decent burn there from Peters

[Clogs]

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-ze ... aign-event

Hopefully not RR but quite a decent burn there from Peters

Boom. Headshot.

[Clogs]

The world already has too many people. I say bring the killer flu on.

From page 1 on this thread. Knowing what poor J Man knows now I am sure he and many others of us in the early part of this thread would be posting very differently.

[Jerome Manning]

Why has the death rate radically reduced despite current infection numbers being way higher than March/April? What are we doing better?

[Jerome Manning]

The world already has too many people. I say bring the killer flu on.

From page 1 on this thread. Knowing what poor J Man knows now I am sure he and many others of us in the early part of this thread would be posting very differently.

Not really. I fear that New Zealand has been too successful in flattening the curve. Flattening the curve was the right course of action but we obliterated it. What's New Zealand going to do - stay shut out from the world for 5 years? I don't want to live in that sort of world.

These lockdowns are a massive sacrifice to save 96 year old Doris in a dementia unit.

[Whatever]

The world already has too many people. I say bring the killer flu on.

From page 1 on this thread. Knowing what poor J Man knows now I am sure he and many others of us in the early part of this thread would be posting very differently.

Not really. I fear that New Zealand has been too successful in flattening the curve. Flattening the curve was the right course of action but we obliterated it. What's New Zealand going to do - stay shut out from the world for 5 years? I don't want to live in that sort of world.

These lockdowns are a massive sacrifice to save 96 year old Doris in a dementia unit.

I don't want to live in world where we just sacrifice "96 year old Doris in a dementia unit" as an expendable person. That world exists; it's called America.

My big regret is that I didn't leave the US at the outset, would much rather be in NZ watching live rugby than existing in the current climate in the US, it's not a pleasant place to be.

There will hopefully be a vaccine and then countries can open up to other countries that have the virus under control or have vaccinated their people. It won't take 5 years. I note there are travel bubbles between the likes of Singapore & HK, and NZ & Australia (one way), but in the US we can't fly anywhere and it's quite right for other countries to ban flights from the US - foolish if they don't.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

I don't want to live in world where we just sacrifice "96 year old Doris in a dementia unit" as an expendable person. That world exists; it's called America.

My big regret is that I didn't leave the US at the outset, would much rather be in NZ watching live rugby than existing in the current climate in the US, it's not a pleasant place to be.

There will hopefully be a vaccine and then countries can open up to other countries that have the virus under control or have vaccinated their people. It won't take 5 years. I note there are travel bubbles between the likes of Singapore & HK, and NZ & Australia (one way), but in the US we can't fly anywhere and it's quite right for other countries to ban flights from the US - foolish if they don't.

I'm glad I got out in March - it was a very odd time to be waiting for a flight.

I don't think we will have a vaccine - just read that it's likely to become endemic and still highly-infectious.

Treatment plans will be the way forward - not just for Doris.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

What's New Zealand going to do - stay shut out from the world for 5 years? I don't want to live in that sort of world.

These lockdowns are a massive sacrifice to save 96 year old Doris in a dementia unit.

Fuck off to America then

[Clogs]

I don't want to live in world where we just sacrifice "96 year old Doris in a dementia unit" as an expendable person. That world exists; it's called America.

My big regret is that I didn't leave the US at the outset, would much rather be in NZ watching live rugby than existing in the current climate in the US, it's not a pleasant place to be.

There will hopefully be a vaccine and then countries can open up to other countries that have the virus under control or have vaccinated their people. It won't take 5 years. I note there are travel bubbles between the likes of Singapore & HK, and NZ & Australia (one way), but in the US we can't fly anywhere and it's quite right for other countries to ban flights from the US - foolish if they don't.

I'm glad I got out in March - it was a very odd time to be waiting for a flight.

I don't think we will have a vaccine - just read that it's likely to become endemic and still highly-infectious.

Treatment plans will be the way forward - not just for Doris.

Yep.

Will Oliver/EPA
COVID-19 will probably become endemic – here’s what that means
October 13, 2020 1.24am AEDT
Author
Hans Heesterbeek
Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology, Utrecht University

Disclosure statement
Hans Heesterbeek currently receives funding from the Netherlands Organization for Medical Research (ZonMw) and the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). His main funding is from his employer Utrecht University.

Partners
Utrecht University

Utrecht University provides funding as a member of The Conversation UK.


We can’t say with any certainty what the future of COVID-19 is. But based on our experience with other infections, there is little reason to believe that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will go away any time soon, even when vaccines become available. A more realistic scenario is that it will be added to the (large and growing) family of infectious diseases that are what is known as “endemic” in the human population.

With the worldwide spread of the disease increasing again, it seems unlikely that the currently available measures can do more than bring that spread under control – except in countries that can effectively isolate themselves from the outside world. The fact that the vast majority of people are still susceptible to some degree means that there is sufficient fuel for the fire to keep burning for quite some time.

This will be the case even if specific locations reach what is known as population (or herd) immunity (and it’s not clear how likely this is to happen). When a sufficient number of people become immune to a disease, either through vaccination or natural infection, its spread starts to slow down and the number of cases gradually decreases. But that doesn’t mean it will disappear instantly or completely.

Outside any areas with population immunity, there are likely to be plenty of locations that still have enough susceptible individuals to keep transmission going. No measure of isolation is so strong that it will completely stop human interaction between regions, within and between countries, or globally.

It’s also possible that the spread of an infection will eventually stabilise at a constant level so that it becomes present in communities at all times, possibly at a relatively low, sometimes predictable rate. This is what we mean when we say a disease is endemic.

Some infections are present and actively spreading almost everywhere (such as many sexually transmitted infections and childhood infections). But most infections are endemic in specific parts of the world.

This can occur when effective control has eliminated the infection elsewhere, or because the conditions needed for effective transmission can only be found in specific locations. This is the case for malaria and many other infections transmitted by mosquitoes.

Theoretically speaking, an infection becomes endemic if on average each infected individual transmits it to one other person. In other words, when the reproduction number (R) = 1. In comparison, during an epidemic when the spread of the disease is increasing, R is more than 1, and when the spread is decreasing through control measures or population immunity, R is less than 1.

In practice, there are a number of patterns that can be observed in endemic diseases. Some can exist at low levels throughout the year, while others might show periods of higher transmission interspersed with periods of low transmission. This might happen if seasonal factors influence how much contact people have with one another, how susceptible they are to the disease, or other organisms that spread it such as insects.

As long as there is a sufficient supply of people still susceptible to the disease for each infected person to pass it on to, it will continue to spread. This supply can be replenished in various ways, depending on the characteristics of the disease.

Waning immunity
In diseases that give permanent immunity after infection, each new child born is susceptible after the immunity obtained from the mother wears off. This is why childhood infections such as measles are endemic in many parts of the world where the birth rate is high enough.

In diseases that only give temporary immunity through natural infection, people lose that immune protection to become susceptible again. A virus or bacteria can also evade the immune memory by mutation so that people with immunity to an older strain will become susceptible to the new version of the disease. Influenza is a prime example.

We don’t yet know how long immunity from infection from COVID-19 will last, or how good vaccines will be at protecting people. But other coronaviruses that are endemic in the human population, such as those that cause colds, only confer temporary immunity of about one year.

Another important point is that people with immunity, whether from infection or vaccination, are rarely evenly distributed throughout a community or country, let alone the world. Certainly in the case of COVID-19, there are areas where the infection has spread more intensively and areas that have been relatively spared. Without even distribution, there is no population immunity even if enough people have been vaccinated to meet the predicted necessary threshold.

In these cases, the average R can be low enough that the infection is under control, but in the unprotected pockets it will be well above 1. This leads to localised outbreaks and allows the disease to remain endemic. It continues to spread from place to place, seeded by a few locations where population density and interaction are high enough, and protection low enough, to sustain transmission.

How we respond
How we deal with COVID-19 once it becomes endemic will depend on how good our vaccines and treatments are. If they can protect people from the most severe outcomes, the infection will become manageable. COVID-19 will then be like several other diseases that we have learned to live with and many people will experience during their lives.

Depending on whether immunity – either from natural infection or from vaccination – is permanent or temporary, we may need yearly vaccine updates to protect us (like influenza). Or it could be controlled by vaccination at some optimal age (like many childhood infections).

If vaccines not only prevent clinical disease but also strongly reduce transmission and confer long-lasting immunity, we can envisage other scenarios, such as the potential eradication of the disease. But realistically this is unlikely. Eradication is notoriously difficult, even for diseases for which we have almost perfect vaccines and permanent immunity. Endemic disease is therefore the most likely outcome.

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-wi ... ans-146435

[eldanielfire]

Why has the death rate radically reduced despite current infection numbers being way higher than March/April? What are we doing better?

Death rate is down because we know how to treat it better, the most vulnerable have already had it and it's being mostly spread by young people.

[CM11]

Why has the death rate radically reduced despite current infection numbers being way higher than March/April? What are we doing better?

Death rate is down because we know how to treat it better, the most vulnerable have already had it and it's being mostly spread by young people.

That and the fact that in March/April we were doing a fraction of the testing so not catching a significant amount of cases. Ireland, for example, did nearly as many tests in the last 7 days as we did in all of March and April.

[Whatever]

I don't want to live in world where we just sacrifice "96 year old Doris in a dementia unit" as an expendable person. That world exists; it's called America.

My big regret is that I didn't leave the US at the outset, would much rather be in NZ watching live rugby than existing in the current climate in the US, it's not a pleasant place to be.

There will hopefully be a vaccine and then countries can open up to other countries that have the virus under control or have vaccinated their people. It won't take 5 years. I note there are travel bubbles between the likes of Singapore & HK, and NZ & Australia (one way), but in the US we can't fly anywhere and it's quite right for other countries to ban flights from the US - foolish if they don't.

I'm glad I got out in March - it was a very odd time to be waiting for a flight.

I don't think we will have a vaccine - just read that it's likely to become endemic and still highly-infectious.

Treatment plans will be the way forward - not just for Doris.

That was good foresight, that I wish I had. Will take 2 big flights for me to get to NZ, the only country I can possibly fly to from the US, which will mean I will probably be exposed. But I'm now prepared to take that risk instead of staying in place and being exposed by people who simply refuse to wear masks or socially distance 'because US freedom'. Get it over with instead of living in limbo.

What happened to that Russian vaccine that Vlad was touting? Had such high hopes for that...

[Whatever]

China rolling out an experimental vaccine today apparently. Fingers crossed.

[Anonymous 1]

Interesting too. I read a piece on how well Africa as a whole had managed this. IN part aided by the fact the median age of the population in Africa is 19.7 years...

They say you learn something every day - that's today's fact.

When it comes to covid it pays to live in a region with high birth rates and low life expectancy

[Druid]

China rolling out an experimental vaccine today apparently. Fingers crossed.

[6.Jones]

China rolling out an experimental vaccine today apparently. Fingers crossed.

That car is a Chevrolet Aveo.

And GammaX bikes are made in Malaysia. https://www.facebook.com/gammaxbikes/

[bimboman]

China rolling out an experimental vaccine today apparently. Fingers crossed.

That car is a Chevrolet Aveo.

The post is a joke rather than the result of an actual experiment.

[6.Jones]

China rolling out an experimental vaccine today apparently. Fingers crossed.

That car is a Chevrolet Aveo.

The post is a joke rather than the result of an actual experiment.

I understand that. But it'd be a better joke if the car was actually Chinese, and the bike actually German.

[wamberal]

But it'd be a better joke if the car was actually Chinese, and the bike actually German.

Mrs Wamberal, born in Thailand, is half Chinese. She does not like the Chinese, thinks they are tricky, make shoddy goods (lots of youtube footage of counterfeit noodles and the like!), and are just generally untrustworthy. When she is on a rant, I occasionally point out that her iPhone is made in China, our Volvo is the product of a Chinese company (albeit still manufactured in Sweden; but I bet our next one won't be!), and China has the longest high speed rail network in the world. As for me, I lived in Hong Kong for quite a few years, amongst some very talented Chinese people, most of whom I would have trusted with my life.

[Clogs]

Just found a new word that I hadn't encountered before. It may be another bloody spanner in the works.

Immunosenescence:
"Age-related changes in the immune system that lead to a progressive reduction in its ability to develop effective antibody and cellular responses to infections and vaccinations."

Just what that means for the various vaccines currently being tested I don't know, but it must be some cause for concern in that the vaccines may be highly effective in those under say the age of 40, it may not be anywhere near effective enough in those over the age of 70. It may force a rethink of vaccines to the most vulnerable first. Perhaps start with the healthcare workers and work back from there?

[Enzedder]

Wouldn't it be great if the fuckwit under 40s could be vaccinated - then they wouldn't catch it and pass it on to the vulnerable.

[Clogs]

Wouldn't it be great if the fuckwit under 40s could be vaccinated - then they wouldn't catch it and pass it on to the vulnerable.

Even if all of them got vaccinated it won't be 100% effective. It might only work on 60%. And given you can catch it again, even those that get vaccinated could still catch it and pass it on to those that are vulnerable.

We are doomed and we are all going to die*!
















*Eventually.

[Pat the Ex Mat]

Gaia strikes back?

[Botha Boy]

Wouldn't it be great if the fuckwit under 40s could be vaccinated - then they wouldn't catch it and pass it on to the vulnerable.

Why not expose them to the virus instead as it readily available today and the under 40s are rarely impacted unless they have an existing underlying condition ? Probably cheaper and easier to distribute than the vaccine.

There will be some side-effects, but you haven't tried the hastily developed vaccines yet ...

[Enzedder]

Wouldn't it be great if the fuckwit under 40s could be vaccinated - then they wouldn't catch it and pass it on to the vulnerable.

Why not expose them to the virus instead as it readily available today and the under 40s are rarely impacted unless they have an existing underlying condition ? Probably cheaper and easier to distribute than the vaccine.

There will be some side-effects, but you haven't tried the hastily developed vaccines yet ...

Yeah, we could have games of rugby and invite all the under 40s to watch.

Do you know any teams which may turn up?

[Botha Boy]

Wouldn't it be great if the fuckwit under 40s could be vaccinated - then they wouldn't catch it and pass it on to the vulnerable.

Why not expose them to the virus instead as it readily available today and the under 40s are rarely impacted unless they have an existing underlying condition ? Probably cheaper and easier to distribute than the vaccine.

There will be some side-effects, but you haven't tried the hastily developed vaccines yet ...

Yeah, we could have games of rugby and invite all the under 40s to watch.

Do you know any teams which may turn up?

The All Blacks and the Wallabies ...

[Muttonbirds]

Britain useless, New Zealand great.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/20 ... -them.html