Clogs wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:26 am
Farva wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:01 am
Clogs wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:20 am
Farva wrote: ↑Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:30 am
The UK has around 55k excess deaths. I appreciate that heart attack deaths, etc increased. But at the same time traffic deaths, flu deaths decreased.
Dunno if that cancels out, but without any better data Ill assume it does.
55k deaths at 0.5% = 11m cases. So thats ballpark to the 7.5m mentioned.
Hmm, that is another good way of measuring it. And give or take a 20% variance in the IFR it could be as low as 9M and as high as 13M.
If this does hold reasonably true, then this second wave isn't less deadly, it is infecting way less (it is just that more people are now being tested).
I heard something the other day that as much as 10% of the worlds population has been infected to date!
That suggests that deaths are more like 3.5m are dead now, not 1m. That is believable though. I think the numbers of deaths in the 3rd world are massively unreported due to many dying at home, so not being recorded.
Interesting too. I read a piece on how well Africa as a whole had managed this. IN part aided by the fact the median age of the population in Africa is 19.7 years...
On the flip side, countries like India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines (2b people, twice the population of Africa), etc suffer massive air pollution which is linked to worse Covid reactions - https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyi ... south-asia
From experience, people in the Philippines for instance suffer high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, etc. I picked them because I know them. They might be young but there are lots of underlying conditions. Plus air pollution. Cases are comparatively low because it costs an average person a months wage to get tested. No one is getting tested. And if they get sick hospital bills bankrupt people. No one is going to the doctor. My guess is the death rate will be dire. And other SE Asian countries will be the same.
And in these countries, social distancing is impossible. People only have one room for a family, so they all sleep together. They don’t own a fridge so need to buy food everyday. There is no social security so if they don’t work they don’t eat.