Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

6.Jones · Post by **6.Jones** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:55 am

So, another storm comes down flunado alley.

New China virus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai

The number of people infected with a new virus in China tripled over the weekend, with the outbreak spreading from Wuhan to other major cities.

There are now more than 200 cases, mostly in Wuhan, though the respiratory illness has also been detected in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Three people have died. Japan, Thailand and South Korea have reported cases.

The new strain of coronavirus, which causes a type of pneumonia, can pass from person to person, China confirmed.

Respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan, who heads the health commission team investigating the virus, said 14 medical workers had caught it while treating patients, state media reported.

The sharp rise comes as millions of Chinese prepare to travel for the Lunar New Year holidays.

Although the outbreak is believed to have originated from a market, officials and scientists are yet to determine exactly how it has been spreading.

The outbreak has revived memories of the Sars virus - also a coronavirus - that killed 774 people in the early 2000s across dozens of countries, mostly in Asia. Analysis of the genetic code of the new virus shows it is more closely related to Sars than any other human coronavirus.

Experts in the UK told the BBC the number of people infected could still be far greater than official figures suggest, with estimates closer to 1,700.

We're still waiting for the big one. Like the Y2k bug, there's widespread scepticism that it's a real thing. But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.

Yourmother · Post by **Yourmother** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:04 am

Or one developed.

Caley_Red · Post by **Caley_Red** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:07 am

6.Jones wrote:But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.

Put down your copy of "The Stand".

guy smiley · Post by **guy smiley** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:07 am

There's a confirmed case in Brisbane, a guy who recently travelled to China is currently confined to home for treatment.

We're still waiting for the big one. Like the Y2k bug, there's widespread scepticism that it's a real thing. But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.

I pretty much expect something like that. Our defenses are weakened through our reliance on antibiotics and 'easy' medicine... our options are narrowing and there's a possibility of older viruses escaping into the wild through permafrost thaw and the like.

6.Jones · Post by **6.Jones** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:27 am

Caley_Red wrote:
6.Jones wrote:But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.
Put down your copy of "The Stand".

An underrated book.

Post by **Thomas** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:30 am

6.Jones wrote:
Caley_Red wrote:
6.Jones wrote:But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.
Put down your copy of "The Stand".
An underrated book.

Underrated? By whom?

It's in my top 3 (It is also there). Even the updated version with an extra 200 pages of filler.

Winnie · Post by **Winnie** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:33 am

Thomas wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
Caley_Red wrote:
6.Jones wrote:But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.
Put down your copy of "The Stand".
An underrated book.
Underrated? By whom?

It's in my top 3 (It is also there). Even the updated version with an extra 200 pages of filler.

Yep it’s one of my go to books must have read it 3 or 4 times
MOON that spells brilliant

Dark · Post by **Dark** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:46 am

Do any US politicians own the miracle cure again like Rumsfeld and Tamiflu

J Man · Post by **J Man** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:53 am

The world already has too many people. I say bring the killer flu on.

Enzedder · Post by **Enzedder** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:20 am

J Man wrote:The world already has too many people. I say bring the killer flu on.

Could we hold off for 20 years or so (maybe less but not too much)?

AlanBengio · Post by **AlanBengio** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:33 am

J Man wrote:The world already has too many people. I say bring the killer flu on.

Obviously you are one of the volunteer to die next month.
Right?

Sensible Stephen · Post by **Sensible Stephen** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:35 am

guy smiley wrote:There's a confirmed case in Brisbane, a guy who recently travelled to China is currently confined to home for treatment.

We're still waiting for the big one. Like the Y2k bug, there's widespread scepticism that it's a real thing. But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.
I pretty much expect something like that. Our defenses are weakened through our reliance on antibiotics and 'easy' medicine... our options are narrowing and there's a possibility of older viruses escaping into the wild through permafrost thaw and the like.

I am more optimistic. The post-antibiotics world is a bit like peak oil. Its always just around the corner. They don't develop new antibiotics as there's no money in it. If a bug comes along that is resistant to everything and starts spreading through the population, they will develop something to kill it. Sure might take a while and millions might die, but.. yeah.

As for a virus? Yeah bit scarier. Pop that tamiflu asap.

Pat the Ex Mat · Post by **Pat the Ex Mat** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:41 am

I am feeling a bit Sniffly ...,

sorCrer · Post by **sorCrer** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:45 am

Interesting that our body temperatures have dropped over the last century. I'm blaming climate change and the ECB.

message #2527204 · Post by **message #2527204** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:52 am

Sensible Stephen wrote:
guy smiley wrote:There's a confirmed case in Brisbane, a guy who recently travelled to China is currently confined to home for treatment.

We're still waiting for the big one. Like the Y2k bug, there's widespread scepticism that it's a real thing. But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.
I pretty much expect something like that. Our defenses are weakened through our reliance on antibiotics and 'easy' medicine... our options are narrowing and there's a possibility of older viruses escaping into the wild through permafrost thaw and the like.
I am more optimistic. The post-antibiotics world is a bit like peak oil. Its always just around the corner. They don't develop new antibiotics as there's no money in it. If a bug comes along that is resistant to everything and starts spreading through the population, they will develop something to kill it. Sure might take a while and millions might die, but.. yeah.

As for a virus? Yeah bit scarier. Pop that tamiflu asap.

Tamiflu is for flu virus, whereas this one is related to Sars. Is it going to help?

Gwenno · Post by **Gwenno** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:55 am

Antibiotics are designed to kill bacteria so it's hard to see how they would reduce our immunity to viruses.

6.Jones · Post by **6.Jones** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:01 am

Sensible Stephen is right. The likely worst case is lots of dead people. They were going to die anyway. It's hard to imagine a virus that wipes out our species, unless it is engineered to do so.

From a brutal, species preservation point of view, wiping out half of us now wouldn't be such a bad thing. The remaining half would put a lot less load on the planet.

Gwenno · Post by **Gwenno** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:06 am

6.Jones wrote:Sensible Stephen is right. The likely worst case is lots of dead people. They were going to die anyway. It's hard to imagine a virus that wipes out our species, unless it is engineered to do so.

From a brutal, species preservation point of view, wiping out half of us now wouldn't be such a bad thing. The remaining half would put a lot less load on the planet.

It would certainly provide a climate change bailout, but would we then just not change?

6.Jones · Post by **6.Jones** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:14 am

Gwenno wrote:
6.Jones wrote:Sensible Stephen is right. The likely worst case is lots of dead people. They were going to die anyway. It's hard to imagine a virus that wipes out our species, unless it is engineered to do so.

From a brutal, species preservation point of view, wiping out half of us now wouldn't be such a bad thing. The remaining half would put a lot less load on the planet.
It would certainly provide a climate change bailout, but would we then just not change?

Yeah, it'd have to wipe out dumb people.

guy smiley · Post by **guy smiley** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:23 am

6.Jones wrote:
Gwenno wrote:
6.Jones wrote:Sensible Stephen is right. The likely worst case is lots of dead people. They were going to die anyway. It's hard to imagine a virus that wipes out our species, unless it is engineered to do so.

From a brutal, species preservation point of view, wiping out half of us now wouldn't be such a bad thing. The remaining half would put a lot less load on the planet.
It would certainly provide a climate change bailout, but would we then just not change?
Yeah, it'd have to wipe out dumb people.

Odds are you'd be left with a significantly loud minority of Believers worshipping a second chance and sermonising some twisted rip off of something left field like a 70s post apocalypse B grade Hollywood stinker.

deadduck · Post by **deadduck** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:33 am

6.Jones wrote:
We're still waiting for the big one. Like the Y2k bug, there's widespread scepticism that it's a real thing. But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.

The nature of epidemics in the modern world mean that something infectious enough to spread to a significant amount of the population without governments intervening early is likely to have a lethality too low to cause a big death toll

pjm1 · Post by **pjm1** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:41 am

Some people on this thread have been watching too much Infinity War and V Wars.

C69 · Post by **C69** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:45 am

Zoonosis man it's a major threat.

eldanielfire · Post by **eldanielfire** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:46 am

pjm1 wrote:Some people on this thread have been watching too much Infinity War and V Wars.

Or listening to David Attenborough:

sockwithaticket · Post by **sockwithaticket** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:04 am

Thanos was right...

Flyin Ryan · Post by **Flyin Ryan** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:24 pm

Found first case in the U.S. Person in Washington State (Pacific Northwest) that had returned from Wuhan, China.

Source reported to be a poultry/seafood market in Wuhan.

WHO meeting tomorrow.

Flyin Ryan · Post by **Flyin Ryan** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:27 pm

deadduck wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
We're still waiting for the big one. Like the Y2k bug, there's widespread scepticism that it's a real thing. But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.

The nature of epidemics in the modern world mean that something infectious enough to spread to a significant amount of the population without governments intervening early is likely to have a lethality too low to cause a big death toll

Something that kills people quickly with a short incubation time should stay regionalized (people get too sick before they have a chance to travel far and spread it around). The real danger is anything that has a longer incubation time, because it would've spread by the time any kind of quarantine was put in place.

bimboman · Post by **bimboman** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:33 pm

6.Jones wrote:Sensible Stephen is right. The likely worst case is lots of dead people. They were going to die anyway. It's hard to imagine a virus that wipes out our species, unless it is engineered to do so.

From a brutal, species preservation point of view, wiping out half of us now wouldn't be such a bad thing. The remaining half would put a lot less load on the planet.

That’s a tremendously worrying view. Well done,

C69 · Post by **C69** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:47 pm

Gwenno wrote:
6.Jones wrote:Sensible Stephen is right. The likely worst case is lots of dead people. They were going to die anyway. It's hard to imagine a virus that wipes out our species, unless it is engineered to do so.

From a brutal, species preservation point of view, wiping out half of us now wouldn't be such a bad thing. The remaining half would put a lot less load on the planet.
It would certainly provide a climate change bailout, but would we then just not change?

Hello Gwenno meet Mr Malthus.

6.Jones · Post by **6.Jones** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:33 pm

Flyin Ryan wrote:
deadduck wrote:
6.Jones wrote:
We're still waiting for the big one. Like the Y2k bug, there's widespread scepticism that it's a real thing. But one day a bug will evolve with the right stats that beats our defences.

The nature of epidemics in the modern world mean that something infectious enough to spread to a significant amount of the population without governments intervening early is likely to have a lethality too low to cause a big death toll
Something that kills people quickly with a short incubation time should stay regionalized (people get too sick before they have a chance to travel far and spread it around). The real danger is anything that has a longer incubation time, because it would've spread by the time any kind of quarantine was put in place.

That's pretty exact. I think I'm with deadduck. That requires engineering.

6.Jones · Post by **6.Jones** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:34 pm

bimboman wrote:
6.Jones wrote:Sensible Stephen is right. The likely worst case is lots of dead people. They were going to die anyway. It's hard to imagine a virus that wipes out our species, unless it is engineered to do so.

From a brutal, species preservation point of view, wiping out half of us now wouldn't be such a bad thing. The remaining half would put a lot less load on the planet.

That’s a tremendously worrying view. Well done,

It means we last longer.

bimboman · Post by **bimboman** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:45 pm

6.Jones wrote:
bimboman wrote:
6.Jones wrote:Sensible Stephen is right. The likely worst case is lots of dead people. They were going to die anyway. It's hard to imagine a virus that wipes out our species, unless it is engineered to do so.

From a brutal, species preservation point of view, wiping out half of us now wouldn't be such a bad thing. The remaining half would put a lot less load on the planet.

That’s a tremendously worrying view. Well done,
It means we last longer.

Well as long as you’re in the lucky “we” club.

naki · Post by **naki** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:48 pm

When Groucho talks about wiping out half of all humanity, he's talking about the "right" "half".

Watch out bimbo, Seneca et al.

icon · Post by **icon** » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:25 pm

first confirmed case in the US... either quarantine everyone inbound from China, or add your patch to the quickly growing list

Gwenno · Post by **Gwenno** » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:08 am

BBC page says 300 cases, 6 deaths! If 2% mortality is maintained when the number of cases multiplies......shit!

Gwenno · Post by **Gwenno** » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:11 am

Gwenno wrote:BBC page says 300 cases, 6 deaths! If 2% mortality is maintained when the number of cases multiplies......shit!

Just googled mortality for Spanish flu - 20%, killing about 3% of the world in 1919 - so we're not facing a rerun of 'survivors' quite yet.

6.Jones · Post by **6.Jones** » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:21 am

Gwenno wrote:
Gwenno wrote:BBC page says 300 cases, 6 deaths! If 2% mortality is maintained when the number of cases multiplies......shit!
Just googled mortality for Spanish flu - 20%, killing about 3% of the world in 1919 - so we're not facing a rerun of 'survivors' quite yet.

We're much better at keeping the zombies alive now.

C69 · Post by **C69** » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:23 am

I've got and IPC meeting today and will have a chat with our Microbiologist about this.
Better get shares in FFP3 mask manufacturers.

A5D5E5 · Post by **A5D5E5** » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:26 am

c69 wrote:I've got and IPC meeting today and will have a chat with our Microbiologist about this.
Better get shares in FFP3 mask manufacturers.

Better yet, buy the shares of companies with big pension deficits.

6.Jones · Post by **6.Jones** » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:32 am

A5D5E5 wrote:
c69 wrote:I've got and IPC meeting today and will have a chat with our Microbiologist about this.
Better get shares in FFP3 mask manufacturers.
Better yet, buy the shares of companies with big pension deficits.

Is that because those debts will disappear if everyone dies? Good strategy. Or go long on pension funds. Then you get leverage.