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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:55 pm
by Sandstorm
New guy wrote:
Sandstorm wrote:
Last Line wrote:
New guy wrote:793 deaths in Italy today. Well yesterday I assume.

Stay inside guys.
Christ. It's out of control there. :(
If they lose that number every day until Xmas, that’s only half of the 500 000 deaths in Italy last year.

Corona sux, but it’s not in the top 5 things that’ll kill you in Italy.
But the growth is exponential, that's the issue. It'll be 900 tomorrow.
But some of those elderly who already died of Covid19 would have died anyway in July from something else. They’re not taking account of those deaths into the calculations.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:57 pm
by Frodder
So what you saying Sandstorm?

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:58 pm
by Sandstorm
Frodder wrote:So what you saying Sandstorm?
6pm. Beer time

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:59 pm
by eldanielfire
terryfinch wrote:
Edinburgh01 wrote:Good stuff or about time, I am not sure which.
The NHS has struck a deal with private hospitals to acquire thousands of extra beds, ventilators and medical staff to fight the coronavirus outbreak.

An extra 8,000 hospital beds across England, nearly 1,200 ventilators and almost 20,000 fully qualified staff will be available from next week.

The agreement will see the private sector reallocate almost its entire national hospital capacity to the NHS.

The extra resources will also help the NHS deliver other urgent treatments.

The additional staff includes 10,000 nurses, more than 700 doctors and more than 8,000 other clinical staff, who will be joining the health service to help manage an expected surge in cases, said NHS England.

Chief executive Sir Simon Stevens hailed the deal with the private sector.

He said: "We're dealing with an unprecedented global health threat and are taking immediate and exceptional action to gear up.

"The NHS is doing everything in its power to expand treatment capacity and is working with partners right across the country to do so."

Under the terms of the deal, the private sector will be reimbursed at cost, meaning no profit will be made for doing so.

"Open book" accounting and external auditors will verify the public funds being deployed.

David Hare, chief executive of the Independent Healthcare Providers Network, said: "We have worked hand-in-hand with the NHS for decades and will do whatever it takes to support the NHS in responding to this pandemic."

He added the independent sector "stands ready" to maintain that support for as long as needed.
That is great news. :thumbup:
Superb news!

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:00 pm
by Frodder
Sandstorm wrote:
Frodder wrote:So what you saying Sandstorm?
6pm. Beer time
Good man :thumbup:

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:04 pm
by RodneyRegis
Last Line wrote:
New guy wrote:793 deaths in Italy today. Well yesterday I assume.

Stay inside guys.
Christ. It's out of control there. :(
Usual daily deaths in Italy are around 1600 a day....

Obviously some crossover here, but holy fudge.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:09 pm
by RodneyRegis
Sandstorm wrote:
Last Line wrote:
New guy wrote:793 deaths in Italy today. Well yesterday I assume.

Stay inside guys.
Christ. It's out of control there. :(
If they lose that number every day until Xmas, that’s only half of the 500 000 deaths in Italy last year.

Corona sux, but it’s not in the top 5 things that’ll kill you in Italy.
Err, what the fudge?

There are 1600 deaths a day. Coronavirus can only be the 2nd or 3rd main reason for death. The fact that it's not killed as many in a day as die in a year does not mean its outside the top 5...

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:09 pm
by goeagles
RodneyRegis wrote:
Last Line wrote:
New guy wrote:793 deaths in Italy today. Well yesterday I assume.

Stay inside guys.
Christ. It's out of control there. :(
Usual daily deaths in Italy are around 1600 a day....

Obviously some crossover here, but holy fudge.
Also have to consider other deaths due to hospitals being overloaded from this. If a heart attack patient has a 2 hour wait time and dies when they would have lived, that doesn't count as a death from COVID-19 but it's indirectly caused by it anyway.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:09 pm
by Raggs
RodneyRegis wrote:
Last Line wrote:
New guy wrote:793 deaths in Italy today. Well yesterday I assume.

Stay inside guys.
Christ. It's out of control there. :(
Usual daily deaths in Italy are around 1600 a day....

Obviously some crossover here, but holy fudge.
Normal daily deaths puts it into a lot more proportion than trying to compare yearly etc. Yes, some may have passed away from something else instead, but even still, that's crazy. It's not like all those other death causes have gone away.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:12 pm
by RodneyRegis
goeagles wrote:
RodneyRegis wrote:
Last Line wrote:
New guy wrote:793 deaths in Italy today. Well yesterday I assume.

Stay inside guys.
Christ. It's out of control there. :(
Usual daily deaths in Italy are around 1600 a day....

Obviously some crossover here, but holy fudge.
Also have to consider other deaths due to hospitals being overloaded from this. If a heart attack patient has a 2 hour wait time and dies when they would have lived, that doesn't count as a death from COVID-19 but it's indirectly caused by it anyway.
Absolutely.

Meanwhile, life in the UK continues on as normal.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:13 pm
by sorCrer
c69 wrote:
BlackMac wrote:I see some doctor in Canada has worked out how to use one ventilator to treat 8 patients.
:? Link
:?
It's been all over the web for a day or two, c69. :(

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:17 pm
by Raggs
UK with it's first 1k+ day.

1035 new cases, now 5018. Another 56 dead, though that dead number is potentially a bit off, since they've changed from 1pm to 9am.

6k tests done.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:18 pm
by Sandstorm
I’m just saying Pandemic is too strong a word. Perhaps global infection or even health scare is more accurate at this point.





Ah, here’s my beer.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:19 pm
by Gavin Duffy
Sandstorm wrote:I’m just saying Pandemic is too strong a word. Perhaps global infection or even health scare is more accurate at this point.





Ah, here’s my beer.
You're a bit of an idiot.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:19 pm
by Sandstorm
Gavin Duffy wrote:
Sandstorm wrote:I’m just saying Pandemic is too strong a word. Perhaps global infection or even health scare is more accurate at this point.





Ah, here’s my beer.
You're a bit of an idiot.
Cheers Gav

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:20 pm
by CM11
Is there a map of the spread in Italy? Have they avoided hitting the south badly?

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:23 pm
by CM11
Just seen a video of a supermarket beer aisle. Any guesses for the only beer left. In great numbers?

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:25 pm
by Raggs
CM11 wrote:Just seen a video of a supermarket beer aisle. Any guesses for the only beer left. In great numbers?
Carlsberg?

It's Corona isn't is. Idiots. Had a place post up prices of beers they could deliver on facebook, cheapest was Corona.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:26 pm
by Wyndham Upalot
CM11 wrote:Just seen a video of a supermarket beer aisle. Any guesses for the only beer left. In great numbers?
Apart from the obvious answer, if there really is a god, Fosters.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:28 pm
by CM11
Raggs wrote:
CM11 wrote:Just seen a video of a supermarket beer aisle. Any guesses for the only beer left. In great numbers?
Carlsberg?

It's Corona isn't is. Idiots. Had a place post up prices of beers they could deliver on facebook, cheapest was Corona.
Yup!

Another video of Iceland opening their doors yesterday. Absolute mayhem. Just needed one carrier and they probably all got it.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:29 pm
by Sandstorm
Raggs wrote:
CM11 wrote:Just seen a video of a supermarket beer aisle. Any guesses for the only beer left. In great numbers?
Carlsberg?

It's Corona isn't is. Idiots. Had a place post up prices of beers they could deliver on facebook, cheapest was Corona.
That’s because it’s shit.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:31 pm
by Raggs
Met quite a few people down the beach today, all happy but keeping distant. I'm desperately hoping enough people are taking this seriously.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:37 pm
by Petej
Italy locked down on the 9th. So the earliest there measures show up is about the 23rd and hopefully then the r0 falls below 1 and the curve slowly falls. Otherwise this is just mitigation and you end up with about 300,000-600,000 deaths in italy, uk sized countries and 2 to 4 million in the USA. Fully expecting about 10,000,000 deaths in India.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:43 pm
by CM11
Ugh, wife just sent a presentation about the 5g conspiracy theory. My head hurts.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:44 pm
by Petej
Seneca of the Night wrote:
Petej wrote:Italy locked down on the 9th. So the earliest there measures show up is about the 23rd and hopefully then the r0 falls below 1 and the curve slowly falls. Otherwise this is just mitigation and you end up with about 300,000-600,000 deaths in italy, uk sized countries and 2 to 4 million in the USA. Fully expecting about 10,000,000 deaths in India.
How does that compare with the number of people who die in car accidents each year in India?
135,000 die in India due to road traffic incidents. 8.4million died in India last year. There will be some cross over but you could see double the death rate.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:44 pm
by DragsterDriver
BlackMac wrote:My father in law is elderly and has heart and respiratory failure. He gets eggs delivered overnight twice a week and the last two deliveries have been nicked. I will be hiding out under the front hedge next Monday morning and the culprit is in for a hell of a rude awakening. :x
Make them fall down the stairs 8)

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:46 pm
by paddyor
CM11 wrote:Is there a map of the spread in Italy? Have they avoided hitting the south badly?
Image
as of 20 March):
1–9 confirmed
10–99 confirmed
100–499 confirmed
500–999 confirmed
1,000–9,999 confirmed

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:49 pm
by Leinsterman
CM11 wrote:Ugh, wife just sent a presentation about the 5g conspiracy theory. My head hurts.
She really really should know better. Threaten to rip up her degree :uhoh:

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 pm
by Raggs
CM11 wrote:Ugh, wife just sent a presentation about the 5g conspiracy theory. My head hurts.
As a "Haha, look at this." message, or a "Wow, I think 5g is killing us for real!" message?

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 pm
by Yer Man
Petej wrote:Italy locked down on the 9th. So the earliest there measures show up is about the 23rd and hopefully then the r0 falls below 1 and the curve slowly falls. Otherwise this is just mitigation and you end up with about 300,000-600,000 deaths in italy, uk sized countries and 2 to 4 million in the USA. Fully expecting about 10,000,000 deaths in India.
UK still tracking 14 days behind Italy.

Spain are 6-7 days behind
Germany are 7-8 days behind
France are 8-9 days behind

USA were 10-11 days behind, but are now only 7 (probably indicates just how far behind their "testing" was

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:58 pm
by Yer Man
Drilling into the Italian info on Worldometer...


Italy: in the city of Bergamo, there were 108 more deaths in the first 15 days of March this year compared to 2019 (164 deaths in 2020 vs. 56 deaths in 2019) according to the mayor of the city Giorgio Gori. During this period, 31 deaths were attributed to the coronavirus (less than 30% of the additional deaths this year)

"There are significant numbers of people who have died but whose death hasn't been attributed to the coronavirus because they died at home or in a nursing home and so they weren't swabbed," said the mayor



That's almost a death rate at 300% versus 2019 :shock:

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:59 pm
by Yer Man
paddyor wrote:
CM11 wrote:Is there a map of the spread in Italy? Have they avoided hitting the south badly?
Image
as of 20 March):
1–9 confirmed
10–99 confirmed
100–499 confirmed
500–999 confirmed
1,000–9,999 confirmed
Isn't the population concentrated in the north anyway?

Need a map showing cases per '000 population for each region

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:00 pm
by iarmhiman
102 new cases in Ireland. Drop from yesterday.

Still though early to speculate

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:02 pm
by Yer Man
Petej wrote:Italy locked down on the 9th. So the earliest there measures show up is about the 23rd and hopefully then the r0 falls below 1 and the curve slowly falls. Otherwise this is just mitigation and you end up with about 300,000-600,000 deaths in italy, uk sized countries and 2 to 4 million in the USA. Fully expecting about 10,000,000 deaths in India.
Just checked up on American annual deaths.

Guns - 40,000
Opiates - about 50,000


Jaysus, even America might notice this virus killing people

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:06 pm
by Yer Man
iarmhiman wrote:102 new cases in Ireland. Drop from yesterday.

Still though early to speculate
Yesterday's figure was a huge spike out of the expected trend.
Today is back where you would have expected it to be.

Sorry, not a positive development today.


(If you go into a selected country on the Worldometer you can see daily new cases & daily deaths and you can switch graphs from numerical to logarithmic)

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:08 pm
by DragsterDriver
People are stupid, we need martial Law.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:08 pm
by backrow
Sandstorm wrote:
Raggs wrote:
CM11 wrote:Just seen a video of a supermarket beer aisle. Any guesses for the only beer left. In great numbers?
Carlsberg?

It's Corona isn't is. Idiots. Had a place post up prices of beers they could deliver on facebook, cheapest was Corona.
That’s because it’s shit.
Corona is lovely , had one yesterday when I was eating a Steak at lunchtime

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:10 pm
by Mick Mannock
RodneyRegis wrote:
goeagles wrote:
RodneyRegis wrote:
Last Line wrote:
New guy wrote:793 deaths in Italy today. Well yesterday I assume.

Stay inside guys.
Christ. It's out of control there. :(
Usual daily deaths in Italy are around 1600 a day....

Obviously some crossover here, but holy fudge.
Also have to consider other deaths due to hospitals being overloaded from this. If a heart attack patient has a 2 hour wait time and dies when they would have lived, that doesn't count as a death from COVID-19 but it's indirectly caused by it anyway.
Absolutely.

Meanwhile, life in the UK continues on as normal.[/quote]

Indeed.

Which is odd because it feels far from normal.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:12 pm
by Petej
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf
For those that have not read it this is the imperial University paper influencing uk decisions.

Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:12 pm
by backrow
Sandstorm wrote:I’m just saying Pandemic is too strong a word. Perhaps global infection or even health scare is more accurate at this point.





Ah, here’s my beer.
Surely Pandemic is apt as it’s truly global and spreads quickly , the actual death toll bit is a bit irrelevant to the name of description ?

Health scare isn’t really what anyone sane would use to describe an event that has halted the world, cut 40% of its nominal value and even killed people.