Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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Nolanator
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

Sorry, wasn't trying to go all Cammy there. They're just the two countries in familiar with.
I'm also completely fucked off with all the dickheads having street parties the other day while I'm keeping to myself in my flat. Then the government advice is "be alert". Great, that'll stop people congregating...
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BlackMac
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by BlackMac »

SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.
Is there not a question mark about how the Germans count the deaths. Never been clarified, but I heard that in Germany only the main cause of death is counted, so if someone with terminal cancer dies with covid, it is a cancer death, not Covid.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

6.Jones wrote: If the world opened up then the United States would a net exporter of the virus. From a health point of view, Canada and Mexico can't afford to open their borders. That could get tasty.
I agree. I was of course commentating on their good fortune of geography and political borders benefit, the USAs rates are relatively low compared with western Europe with Eastern Europe and the far less dense non-coastal areas of the USA looking very good.
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camroc1
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by camroc1 »

SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Is Ireland worse than similar countries? Maybe based on officially reported deaths, how about by excess death rate? The whole counting nursing homes or suspected deaths has been done to, well, death.

Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.

Timing plays a huge part. Countries that had their outbreaks early were hit very hard. Those that saw what was coming and had a chance to bed themselves were better able to cope.
On that note, when everyone else was gradually building restrictions, the UK government was telling everyone to carry on as normal. That has to have an effect.
Not sure why everything is Ireland vs UK - I really don't think my post has anything to do with Ireland vs the UK.
A lot of the difference in Europe is how the deaths are counted, combined with earlier lock down and pure dumb luck.

If you manage to keep the virus out of residential care homes, your death rate will probably be half of other countries as that's where half + of deaths are happening.
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Clogs
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Clogs »

6.Jones wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
SamShark wrote:I have to say I find the comparison stats country vs country constantly mind blowing. It just makes no sense to me. Has anyone sen any high quality analysis on this?

You have a group of countries that could be said to be doing poorly - eg deaths per 100k population around 30+, which are Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands. And of course Belgium (absolutely huge at around 75% but said to include more deaths in their figures than most).

Then you have Canada at 12%, Norway at 4%, Australia and Japan under 1%.

Obviously with some countries you might raise questions about their data or transparency but you wouldn't with the above and the spread of those countries is very different in terms of climate (for instance).

The USA is often said to be doing appalingly but has a lower rate than Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium.

I really can't get my head around it. Clearly as many say it could take months or years to understand but I haven't even seen any decent speculation. Obviously Spain, Italy, UK, France have big populations, loads of airports and travel and the like, but equally Canada and Japan are big enough countries.

Canada has a hugely lower population density as well. It has just over half the population of the UK but 40 times the space. It also borders only one country. Even in the USA. It borders 2 countries and it's really only where it's most international of hubs and major population centres are where the virus is spreading, e.g. New York and the East coast. I believe major factors in the spread is population size and density and how well connected the international hubs are and the countries geographical isolation. Outside Asia only Germany seems to have bucked the trend, and that is due to the fact they could produce their own COVID-19 tests and trap the spread early on. But even they struggled with PPE and had to be told off by the EU to share medical supplies.

But this is only the beginning. There will be more waves. South Korea just left lockdown and they have seen a sudden surge in cases again, despite being the country that probably has the capacity to control the spread the best. Which switches back to the whole, if it was contained to fast will it only spread again and again?
If the world opened up then the United States would a net exporter of the virus. From a health point of view, Canada and Mexico can't afford to open their borders. That could get tasty.
Notwithstanding your love of allnthings taco and maple syrup, I am sure the last word in your post was meant to be nasty?
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.
This is just bigoted lies though. The message was very clear and currently still is. “No roadmap” is absolute media nonsense particularly as we are behind other places and went into lockdown later.

You’re just a big Yo-yo right now.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

Nolanator wrote:Sorry, wasn't trying to go all Cammy there. They're just the two countries in familiar with.
I'm also completely fucked off with all the dickheads having street parties the other day while I'm keeping to myself in my flat. Then the government advice is "be alert". Great, that'll stop people congregating...
Saw on twitter lost of Doctors and Nurses complaining. Largely because friday spiked hospital work for stupid drunks in fights or drunk accidents. Not fair on health workers and raises COVID-19 spread.

While I do think those people are idiots, I also think it's shows just how soft society is today, some people just can't cope for this long with a relatively soft lockdown.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Raggs »

SamShark wrote:I have to say I find the comparison stats country vs country constantly mind blowing. It just makes no sense to me. Has anyone sen any high quality analysis on this?

You have a group of countries that could be said to be doing poorly - eg deaths per 100k population around 30+, which are Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands. And of course Belgium (absolutely huge at around 75% but said to include more deaths in their figures than most).

Then you have Canada at 12%, Norway at 4%, Australia and Japan under 1%.

Obviously with some countries you might raise questions about their data or transparency but you wouldn't with the above and the spread of those countries is very different in terms of climate (for instance).

The USA is often said to be doing appalingly but has a lower rate than Spain, Italy, UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium.

I really can't get my head around it. Clearly as many say it could take months or years to understand but I haven't even seen any decent speculation. Obviously Spain, Italy, UK, France have big populations, loads of airports and travel and the like, but equally Canada and Japan are big enough countries.
Population density is important. But a huge factor will be original number of seeds. British ports see over 700 million people travel every year. Not quite a few will probably be moving through, travelling on, but they'll still be potentially spreading to others on the planes, the security queues, baggage collection etc. A truly ludicrous number of seeds were likely in the UK, which is why it's unlikely that we had much of a chance of making track and trace working early on. Similar for other major tourism hubs, and transport hubs.

Canada is a massive country, but probably not getting all that many people travelling through introducing the illness, and it's then quite sparse, so it's not going to get spread throughout that well either.

VHS - Recombination in viruses is nothing new, it's not special. Here's a paper on human coronaviruses that looks into recombinations. Depressingly important, is the fact it's from 2016, so not some sort of daft attempt to make it look like it's covering up covid19 blah blah blah: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 2X16000718

I don't expect you to read it all, neither have I, but I just hope that it makes it clear that it's rather common.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by dpedin »

Nolanator wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Is Ireland worse than similar countries? Maybe based on officially reported deaths, how about by excess death rate? The whole counting nursing homes or suspected deaths has been done to, well, death.

Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.

Timing plays a huge part. Countries that had their outbreaks early were hit very hard. Those that saw what was coming and had a chance to bed themselves were better able to cope.
On that note, when everyone else was gradually building restrictions, the UK government was telling everyone to carry on as normal. That has to have an effect.
Cant disagree with any of the above!

For me the one indicator I look at is the excess deaths year to date v the previous 5 year average for each country. The problem with trying to be more specific is the differences in how countries count Covid related deaths, testing, numbers infected, etc. The most reliable indicator, although even this can be dodgy, is the reporting of deaths. Most countries (lets leave aside the dodgy ones like China and Russia) have a fairly robust system for the counting and reporting of deaths albeit with different time lags in the reporting. This is probably the best measure for how well different countries have coped with the Covid19 impact. Explaining the differences in excess deaths will be a point of much debate and there will be different theories invloving demographics, population density, success and adherence to social distancing, public health strategies, levels of testing, etc etc. Also the excess death rates will change over time as non Covid19 factors begin to play in. However it is the best proxy measure moving forward in my eyes ... and the most recent data tends to support your assessment of the UK Gov performance to date! I should qualify that and point out that the huge increase in excess deaths in UK is in England, Wales, NI and Scotland are about half the rate but this might just be a timing issue? Or to might be a reflection of different health and care systems and different approaches? Too early to tell but data is stark!
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

henry wrote:
bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Most people are blaming the Tories.
I thought the Tories were enjoying record approval ratings?

Oh, I meant amongst the international community of Rugby fan, virologists and epidemiologists.
Nolanator
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

England being worse than the other three is probably down to polishing density in the bigger cities, more international travel, etc.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

Nolanator wrote:England being worse than the other three is probably down to polishing density in the bigger cities, more international travel, etc.
Agreed. Also being more ethnically diverse and in greater numbers in these population hubs.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Nolanator wrote:England being worse than the other three is probably down to polishing density in the bigger cities, more international travel, etc.

Where I live in a England we are way better than Scottish or Welsh averages. I don’t live in London, Birmingham or Manchester.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by BlackMac »

Nolanator wrote:England being worse than the other three is probably down to polishing density in the bigger cities, more international travel, etc.
That certainly seems the case for Scotland's relatively high R number. Nearly a quarter of the population living in two geographically small, very high density cities.
Nolanator
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

Polishing density :lol:
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henry
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by henry »

bimboman wrote:
Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.
This is just bigoted lies though. The message was very clear and currently still is. “No roadmap” is absolute media nonsense particularly as we are behind other places and went into lockdown later.

You’re just a big Yo-yo right now.
This isn’t true is it?

The UK government messaging, particularly at the start of this crisis was muddled and inconsistent.

We had mysterious leaks regarding herd immunity.

We had Boris saying we’d send the virus packing in 12 weeks.

We had Boris bounding around hospitals shaking hands and wearing no mask.

We had the government advising people not to go to restaurants, cafes or pubs, but allowing them to remain open.

Then we’ve had ‘sources’ briefing the press last weekend about easing of restrictions and opening the economy up.

And now we’ve reportedly got ‘stay alert’.

I’m not one for giving the government unnecessary kicking over this crisis - in many ways, it was an impossible task and a game of the least worst option - but they’ve made mistakes and messaging and briefing has been a key one.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by C69 »

henry wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.
This is just bigoted lies though. The message was very clear and currently still is. “No roadmap” is absolute media nonsense particularly as we are behind other places and went into lockdown later.

You’re just a big Yo-yo right now.
This isn’t true is it?

The UK government messaging, particularly at the start of this crisis was muddled and inconsistent.

We had mysterious leaks regarding herd immunity.

We had Boris saying we’d send the virus packing in 12 weeks.

We had Boris bounding around hospitals shaking hands and wearing no mask.

We had the government advising people not to go to restaurants, cafes or pubs, but allowing them to remain open.

Then we’ve had ‘sources’ briefing the press last weekend about easing of restrictions and opening the economy up.

And now we’ve reportedly got ‘stay alert’.

I’m not one for giving the government unnecessary kicking over this crisis - in many ways, it was an impossible task and a game of the least worst option - but they’ve made mistakes and messaging and briefing has been a key one.
Good analysis. It's obviously too early to know exactly if our strategy was correct however only an idiot would blindly condemn or blindly support government actions.
Some of those idiots are on this thread.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

BREAKING: Russian Coronavirus cases above 200,000 :shock:

(Off my phone alerts)

They claim 2k deaths. Is that right?
Last edited by eldanielfire on Sun May 10, 2020 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
Nolanator
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

I've been avoiding the easy Irish option of pilling on the UK government because this whole situation is unprecedented and no-one is well equipped for it.

After the last few days I've had enough though. Cünts singing rock the boat, having street parties, conga lines etc. Probably the same wankers who bang pots for the NHS every Thursday.
The first few weeks of advice were extremely muddled and had the UK behind pretty much everywhere else in Europe. Lockdown was introduced out of nowhere as a reaction, not as part of a graded plan. Media figures going on about easing lockdown because there's no strong message from up high. The parks are a free for all now.
Be alert. FFS.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by BlackMac »

Nolanator wrote:Polishing density :lol:
We have extremely clean cities. :nod:
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Frodder »

BlackMac wrote:
Nolanator wrote:Polishing density :lol:
We have extremely clean cities. :nod:
I thought this was leading to blaming the Poles
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by juddy »

This criticism of the instruction to Stay Alert seems rather contrived. It's an appeal to not get sloppy with social distancing etc now that the lockdown is about to be eased.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

henry wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Without getting into petty points scoring, the British government has been a shambles. Lack of leadership, lack of clear messaging leading to media agitating to ease lockdown, no roadmap, nevermind the ridiculous shit that the public have been getting up to in recent days.
This is just bigoted lies though. The message was very clear and currently still is. “No roadmap” is absolute media nonsense particularly as we are behind other places and went into lockdown later.

You’re just a big Yo-yo right now.
This isn’t true is it?

The UK government messaging, particularly at the start of this crisis was muddled and inconsistent.

We had mysterious leaks regarding herd immunity.

We had Boris saying we’d send the virus packing in 12 weeks.

We had Boris bounding around hospitals shaking hands and wearing no mask.

We had the government advising people not to go to restaurants, cafes or pubs, but allowing them to remain open.

Then we’ve had ‘sources’ briefing the press last weekend about easing of restrictions and opening the economy up.

And now we’ve reportedly got ‘stay alert’.

I’m not one for giving the government unnecessary kicking over this crisis - in many ways, it was an impossible task and a game of the least worst option - but they’ve made mistakes and messaging and briefing has been a key one.

So there was a few days of confusion around the softer advice and the harder lockdown and LAW changes. The media went out of its way to hammer that confusion (even though it was fairly clear). The UK had a problem of major urban areas with international travel starting to see reasonable infection and deaths vs almost everywhere else which had none of those things.

The media treated this as a political game from the start making everything very very difficult. We are now seeing the same thing played out with regard to unlocking , and enormous amounts of time this weekend. Being given to teachers and Unions going on about PPE rather than any thought about the advice regarding how few infections come from schools.

The thing we really need expla8ned is why the airports have been and were left open in March.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Nolanator »

juddy wrote:This criticism of the instruction to Stay Alert seems rather contrived. It's an appeal to not get sloppy with social distancing etc now that the lockdown is about to be eased.
Is it, though? Everyone seems to think it is and there's a push for it from sections of the media, but the government are saying something about another few weeks, or being very careful about easing things. The point is that the message is completely muddled and "stay alert" doesn't do anything to fix that. It's an empty soundbite.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

I see the Germans are revolting.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Frodder »

DragsterDriver wrote:I see the Germans are revolting.
Charming
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by DragsterDriver »

Frodder wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:I see the Germans are revolting.
Charming
If the Stahlhelm fits :thumbup:
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by juddy »

Nolanator wrote:
juddy wrote:This criticism of t
he instruction to Stay Alert seems rather contrived. It's an appeal to not get sloppy with social distancing etc now that the lockdown is about to be eased.
Is it, though? Everyone seems to think it is and there's a push for it from sections of the media, but the government are saying something about another few weeks, or being very careful about easing things. The point is that the message is completely muddled and "stay alert" doesn't do anything to fix that. It's an empty soundbite.
if the pm today announces as expected some limited easing, then it has the meaning as described.
Last edited by juddy on Sun May 10, 2020 11:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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Nolanator wrote:
juddy wrote:This criticism of the instruction to Stay Alert seems rather contrived. It's an appeal to not get sloppy with social distancing etc now that the lockdown is about to be eased.
Is it, though? Everyone seems to think it is and there's a push for it from sections of the media, but the government are saying something about another few weeks, or being very careful about easing things. The point is that the message is completely muddled and "stay alert" doesn't do anything to fix that. It's an empty soundbite.
An empty soundbite. Profound, dude.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by C69 »

message #2527204 wrote:
Nolanator wrote:
juddy wrote:This criticism of the instruction to Stay Alert seems rather contrived. It's an appeal to not get sloppy with social distancing etc now that the lockdown is about to be eased.
Is it, though? Everyone seems to think it is and there's a push for it from sections of the media, but the government are saying something about another few weeks, or being very careful about easing things. The point is that the message is completely muddled and "stay alert" doesn't do anything to fix that. It's an empty soundbite.
An empty soundbite. Profound, dude.
At present it's a contrived empty soundbite.
I am sure that Boris will give clarity later, without the forthcoming measures being set out, it's a pointless slogan.
Let's all wait and see what the guidance is before passing judgement.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Dobbin »

"Stay alert" is a bit woolly, to be fair, but I don't think the message has been too difficult to understand up to now. Stay at home and only go out for essentials and sensible levels of exercise. The fact is, however, that there's a section of the population who choose to ignore all this advice, and unfortunately some police forces seem to have a softly softly approach to such dimwits.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by C69 »

Dobbin wrote:"Stay alert" is a bit woolly, to be fair, but I don't think the message has been too difficult to understand up to now. Stay at home and only go out for essentials and sensible levels of exercise. The fact is, however, that there's a section of the population who choose to ignore all this advice, and unfortunately some police forces seem to have a softly softly approach to such dimwits.
Indeed the street Party pictures from Middlesbrough for instance were a disgrace, even more galling given that the Police confirmed they attended there 3 times and did fudge all.
However let's hope this "woolly" slogan means something more concrete after the PM addresses the nation later.
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Post by AND-y »

Ok. I'm alert, I'm always alert. Now what? Crack skulls of coughers or wanker conga liners?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Margin_Walker »

There's definitely a sense of things slipping. There were a ton of people out on the streets (including me on daily walks tbf) over the last two days.

The VE day street parties definitely made me uncomfortable. Lots of people mingling. It's okay, two metres, same household, honest guv.

The neighbours at the back have had lots of family out sat round the back this week at various times having a drink. Even a BBQ.

All anecdotal and the risk is pretty low with some of these things, but it doesn't feel like a lockdown.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by dpedin »

This is pretty high risk stuff! Hopefully we don't see the above behaviours meaning that the RO goes above 1 in which case there is a real danger the virus goes out of control very quickly and it will be really difficult to go back into lock down. A 2nd peak will make the economic impact of the current lock down pale into insignificance and the health service will struggle if it comes in the Autumn. For me, I would take the hit now and get the RO down to below 0.5 to allow for more headroom when things go wrong.
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Post by message #2527204 »

AND-y wrote:Ok. I'm alert, I'm always alert. Now what? Crack skulls of coughers or wanker conga liners?
Only if you're a f**king wanker.

Are you incapable of thinking for yourself or does the government have to do it for you?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Margin_Walker wrote:There's definitely a sense of things slipping. There were a ton of people out on the streets (including me on daily walks tbf) over the last two days.

The VE day street parties definitely made me uncomfortable. Lots of people mingling. It's okay, two metres, same household, honest guv.

The neighbours at the back have had lots of family out sat round the back this week at various times having a drink. Even a BBQ.

All anecdotal and the risk is pretty low with some of these things, but it doesn't feel like a lockdown.

Anecdote from round here is the road I lived in had a socially distanced collection in our road, yes 2 metres was manintained at all time, everybody had own drink, food and glasses. Kids rode there bikes around with children from ours and the other houses on the blocks doing same as ours. Everyone we saw was clear regarding distance and separation of food and drink. No one had visitors or events in their houses back gardens .


I’m more than happy to say no Law was broken, nor risk taken. I imagine most places were similar.
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

dpedin wrote:This is pretty high risk stuff! Hopefully we don't see the above behaviours meaning that the RO goes above 1 in which case there is a real danger the virus goes out of control very quickly and it will be really difficult to go back into lock down. A 2nd peak will make the economic impact of the current lock down pale into insignificance and the health service will struggle if it comes in the Autumn. For me, I would take the hit now and get the RO down to below 0.5 to allow for more headroom when things go wrong.

More or less risky than importing people from the centre of the outbreak near its peak to areas with no infection?
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Margin_Walker
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Margin_Walker »

bimboman wrote:
Margin_Walker wrote:There's definitely a sense of things slipping. There were a ton of people out on the streets (including me on daily walks tbf) over the last two days.

The VE day street parties definitely made me uncomfortable. Lots of people mingling. It's okay, two metres, same household, honest guv.

The neighbours at the back have had lots of family out sat round the back this week at various times having a drink. Even a BBQ.

All anecdotal and the risk is pretty low with some of these things, but it doesn't feel like a lockdown.

Anecdote from round here is the road I lived in had a socially distanced collection in our road, yes 2 metres was manintained at all time, everybody had own drink, food and glasses. Kids rode there bikes around with children from ours and the other houses on the blocks doing same as ours. Everyone we saw was clear regarding distance and separation of food and drink. No one had visitors or events in their houses back gardens .


I’m more than happy to say no Law was broken, nor risk taken. I imagine most places were similar.
All completely anecdotal. There was one on my SIL's road and she said the half of the people sat round a table at the bottom of her neighbour's drive didn't live in the house.
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Rinkals
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Rinkals »

bimboman wrote:
SamShark wrote:
Nolanator wrote:All the stats are may at the moment. The only truly objective one is excess deaths compared to the average for the time of year, and that'll take a bit of time to compile accurately.
Yeah I totally get that there are much better ways than just saying "compare X's deaths with Y's deaths now" but I find it hard to process why, say, UK, Spain or France is considerably worse than Germany.

Why Spain is considerably worse than Portugal next door.

Why Ireland is considerably worse than Austria or Norway or other similar sized Western Euro nations.

I'm sure there are many things to think about around average age of the population, healthcare systems, cultural ways of living/meeting etc but even so.

Most people are blaming the Tories.
Stop being such a screaming ninny.

If people are blaming the Tories it's because they commissioned a report on the readiness to address a pandemic and then buried the results.

If people are blaming the Tories it's because they tried to spin the pandemic as something that can be defeated with herd immunity.

If people are blaming the Tories it's because they failed to provide adequate protection to their front line workers and then tried to make it their fault.

There's plenty to blame the Tories for.

Would Labour have done better?

Probably not.
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