Nah, that's simply not the case.Canadian_Rugger wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:32 am The issue with lockdowns is once the disease becomes endemic, lockdowns are no longer effective as all they do is delay some deaths that will inevitably occur as soon as the vulnerable are reintroduced to the disease which has now achieved widespread circulation.
Certain isolated areas of the World will be able to keep the disease from becoming endemic (most of them are islands who can use their geographic advantage to tightly control their borders) but they will have to continue to fight a rear-guard action for a very long time.
All of this is playing out as we speak and can be seen in all the trend lines. The COVID death rate per day has remained much the same since the pandemic began but the disease continues to spread exponentially to ever greater numbers of people.
Every Country where the disease is now Endemic is going to have a death rate that is remarkably similar, regardless of how many lockdowns and Government interventions are carried out.
All this to say, Governments aren't going to micromanage their way out of the pandemic but they will certainly try.
If ICUs are swamped then the ability to sustain people with acute conditions (Covid and other) will be impaired. So all this action is about trying to flatten the incidence curve so that health systems can cope better. For every person who needs ICU and cannot get an ICU bed, it's fair to assume the death toll will increase by 1, rather than the (say) 0.25-0.5 that would likely be the case if an ICU bed is available.
The impact on treatment of other diseases, accidents and mental health should also not be discounted.
So to say all death rates will be similar is a gross over-simplification and assumes all the above effects aren't relevant.