Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

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quarter2four
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by quarter2four »

Edit: Replying to Bimbo's post

Some people will do this as they have anonymity. The vast majority won't. A few anecdotal cases doesn't equate to general non compliance.

The specific case I'm talking about there would be no anonymity as people would be obvious in there movements all around the country. People wouldn't be able to hide 7/8 people rocking up to a house from all over the country. Social pressure would be at play and most people would have complied.

Even 50% compliance would have reduced the high rate we have significantly. The perfect shouldn't be the enemy of the good and all that.
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RodneyRegis
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by RodneyRegis »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:26 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:04 am
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:33 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:24 am
bimboman wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:20 pm


And they’ll accelerate once the successful lockdown is over, see the first weekend in December partying for details.
Yes, which onlys hows lockdowns do reduce the spread of the virus given they transmitted more slowly in lockdowns. Reducing spread is unquestionably linked to slowing down the spread of the virus.

Except in November.
But it did start to drop the numbers for December until restrictions were lifted.

And the stunning success of the “firebreak” in Wales where it didn’t.
Quite.

Coronavirus (ie not just covid 19) spread is seasonal.

If you lock down a few weeks before the seasonal peak then you will naturally see a drop in cases after the peak is reached, which can erroneously be attributed to the lag.

Certainly this can be demonstrated by looking at seasonal deaths, unfortunately the only related statistics we have any solid records of. Obviously not directly proportional to infection.

You can't compare Covid to the flu because the flu is heavily vaccinated against, tests are not carried out and records are only kept where there are hospitalisations.

You can't compare Covid to the common cold because tests are not done and records not kept.

Listen, I'm not saying lockdowns don't work, I'm just saying that there's no conclusive data, because there can't be without comparing to non-lockdown data from previous years.

If this lockdown delays the spread and we all get vaccinated then great. If we are told in Feb/Mar/Apr that we can't come out of lockdown until everybody is vaccinated because we can still spread the virus to vulnerable people then that's a problem.

Of course, come June there won't be any cases either way.
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

quarter2four wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:21 am Edit: Replying to Bimbo's post

Some people will do this as they have anonymity. The vast majority won't. A few anecdotal cases doesn't equate to general non compliance.

The specific case I'm talking about there would be no anonymity as people would be obvious in there movements all around the country. People wouldn't be able to hide 7/8 people rocking up to a house from all over the country. Social pressure would be at play and most people would have complied.

Even 50% compliance would have reduced the high rate we have significantly. The perfect shouldn't be the enemy of the good and all that.

Hey, in the case of isolating post a positive covid test 80% say they’ll isolate as per the rules, survey after survey demonstrates that actually less than 20% are. The Vast majority aren’t isolating. Solve that issue first before changing the rules.
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

RodneyRegis wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:26 am
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:26 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:04 am
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:33 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:24 am

Yes, which onlys hows lockdowns do reduce the spread of the virus given they transmitted more slowly in lockdowns. Reducing spread is unquestionably linked to slowing down the spread of the virus.

Except in November.
But it did start to drop the numbers for December until restrictions were lifted.

And the stunning success of the “firebreak” in Wales where it didn’t.
Quite.

Coronavirus (ie not just covid 19) spread is seasonal.

If you lock down a few weeks before the seasonal peak then you will naturally see a drop in cases after the peak is reached, which can erroneously be attributed to the lag.

Certainly this can be demonstrated by looking at seasonal deaths, unfortunately the only related statistics we have any solid records of. Obviously not directly proportional to infection.

You can't compare Covid to the flu because the flu is heavily vaccinated against, tests are not carried out and records are only kept where there are hospitalisations.

You can't compare Covid to the common cold because tests are not done and records not kept.

Listen, I'm not saying lockdowns don't work, I'm just saying that there's no conclusive data, because there can't be without comparing to non-lockdown data from previous years.

If this lockdown delays the spread and we all get vaccinated then great. If we are told in Feb/Mar/Apr that we can't come out of lockdown until everybody is vaccinated because we can still spread the virus to vulnerable people then that's a problem.

Of course, come June there won't be any cases either way.


This....


It’s unarguable that this is correct.
quarter2four
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by quarter2four »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:28 am
quarter2four wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:21 am Edit: Replying to Bimbo's post

Some people will do this as they have anonymity. The vast majority won't. A few anecdotal cases doesn't equate to general non compliance.

The specific case I'm talking about there would be no anonymity as people would be obvious in there movements all around the country. People wouldn't be able to hide 7/8 people rocking up to a house from all over the country. Social pressure would be at play and most people would have complied.

Even 50% compliance would have reduced the high rate we have significantly. The perfect shouldn't be the enemy of the good and all that.

Hey, in the case of isolating post a positive covid test 80% say they’ll isolate as per the rules, survey after survey demonstrates that actually less than 20% are. The Vast majority aren’t isolating. Solve that issue first before changing the rules.
That's the UK, we have a better educated, more informed population here :nod:
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

Good news, the lockdown measure in London and the SE are having an effect as Covid hospital Admissions Start to Fall:

Image
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RodneyRegis
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by RodneyRegis »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:30 am
RodneyRegis wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:26 am
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:26 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:04 am
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:33 am


Except in November.
But it did start to drop the numbers for December until restrictions were lifted.

And the stunning success of the “firebreak” in Wales where it didn’t.
Quite.

Coronavirus (ie not just covid 19) spread is seasonal.

If you lock down a few weeks before the seasonal peak then you will naturally see a drop in cases after the peak is reached, which can erroneously be attributed to the lag.

Certainly this can be demonstrated by looking at seasonal deaths, unfortunately the only related statistics we have any solid records of. Obviously not directly proportional to infection.

You can't compare Covid to the flu because the flu is heavily vaccinated against, tests are not carried out and records are only kept where there are hospitalisations.

You can't compare Covid to the common cold because tests are not done and records not kept.

Listen, I'm not saying lockdowns don't work, I'm just saying that there's no conclusive data, because there can't be without comparing to non-lockdown data from previous years.

If this lockdown delays the spread and we all get vaccinated then great. If we are told in Feb/Mar/Apr that we can't come out of lockdown until everybody is vaccinated because we can still spread the virus to vulnerable people then that's a problem.

Of course, come June there won't be any cases either way.


This....


It’s unarguable that this is correct.
And it's vitally important, not just a case of "well it's common sense". There's more to it than the economy as well...

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-dail ... 3573730382
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Yep, well aware here RR as I pointed out the other day a second family friend has been given a terminal diagnosis from cancelled chemo.

There’s also the lunacy of the people calling for a tighter lockdown and the removal of two people able to meet outside from separate households for exercise or a walk, this rule is an absolute life line to single people living on their own who are in my Experience quite desperate now, especially after in much of the country Xmas was cancelled.

I meet up for exercise once a week with someone who’s in that situation and they’re clinging on.
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RodneyRegis
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by RodneyRegis »

eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:36 am Good news, the lockdown measure in London and the SE are having an effect as Covid hospital Admissions Start to Fall:

Image
Looks familiar.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/wil ... n-the-nhs-

Look at the state of that graph. It's all over the shop and bears no resemblance to lockdown dates, lag or tiers.
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

RodneyRegis wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:44 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:36 am Good news, the lockdown measure in London and the SE are having an effect as Covid hospital Admissions Start to Fall:

Image
Looks familiar.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/wil ... n-the-nhs-

Look at the state of that graph. It's all over the shop and bears no resemblance to lockdown dates, lag or tiers.


Zing.

Retrospective narrative to cover the fact that preparations for Winter were woeful.
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Blackrock Bullet
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

Ali's Choice wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:11 am
badmannotinjapan wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:23 am Been in lockdown since December 26th and Ontario is racking up 3000+ a day. Lockdowns work so well. f**king joke for 1%.
Your govt was arguably 9 months too late. Lockdowns work if government's have the courage to go early and go hard. If they have the courage to ignore the naysayers who will make every excuse in the book to delay or avoid lockdowns.
Except again, you are distorting what they were supposed to be. Lockdowns per the WHO were supposed to be a last resort to give your healthcare service time to rebuild and tool up systems.

NZ and Australia went away from that and that's fine, you have special circumstances that allows this, but it is not what "lockdown" is for most.

What the data shows is;

1) lockdowns per the WHO meaning really don't work. Populations have adapted by the time they are implemented regardless. The information vacuum is causing this.

2) lockdowns "early and hard" are what Australia/NZ did because they followed the West when they were in a good season and the mutant strain of last Spring hadn't reached you. That set you up with going for suppression/elimination.

Other places that locked down "early and hard" have seen the thing rebound hard. The Czech Republic, Poland - the "star" performers in the Spring in Europe had dismal Autumns. The circuit breaker in Wales did not work. The Autumn lockdown in Ireland also did not work, it merely stored up expectation of freedom which has seen things go to pot.

If you argument is to keep lockdowns forever then go ahead, but that is shifting the goal posts on what they were supposed to be and is wholly impractical.

As we are close to a vaccine, there is a good argument to just keep the lockdowns there. When the circumstances change, our strategy should too. But we'd be in a dark place without those vaccines.
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Lockdown here failing the most vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/Stat_O_Guy/status/1 ... 3632483328
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Ali's Choice »

Blackrock Bullet wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:21 pm
Ali's Choice wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:11 am
badmannotinjapan wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:23 am Been in lockdown since December 26th and Ontario is racking up 3000+ a day. Lockdowns work so well. f**king joke for 1%.
Your govt was arguably 9 months too late. Lockdowns work if government's have the courage to go early and go hard. If they have the courage to ignore the naysayers who will make every excuse in the book to delay or avoid lockdowns.
Except again, you are distorting what they were supposed to be. Lockdowns per the WHO were supposed to be a last resort to give your healthcare service time to rebuild and tool up systems.

NZ and Australia went away from that and that's fine, you have special circumstances that allows this, but it is not what "lockdown" is for most.

What the data shows is;

1) lockdowns per the WHO meaning really don't work. Populations have adapted by the time they are implemented regardless. The information vacuum is causing this.

2) lockdowns "early and hard" are what Australia/NZ did because they followed the West when they were in a good season and the mutant strain of last Spring hadn't reached you. That set you up with going for suppression/elimination.

Other places that locked down "early and hard" have seen the thing rebound hard. The Czech Republic, Poland - the "star" performers in the Spring in Europe had dismal Autumns. The circuit breaker in Wales did not work. The Autumn lockdown in Ireland also did not work, it merely stored up expectation of freedom which has seen things go to pot.

If you argument is to keep lockdowns forever then go ahead, but that is shifting the goal posts on what they were supposed to be and is wholly impractical.

As we are close to a vaccine, there is a good argument to just keep the lockdowns there. When the circumstances change, our strategy should too. But we'd be in a dark place without those vaccines.
I don't want to be argumentative, and I am very sensitive to what you guys up North are suffering through right now, but I just don't get your attitude towards lockdowns. Lockdowns that are imposed for as long as they need to be imposed for. I don't know why you keep going on about what lockdowns are "supposed to be" or repeating WHO's definition of a lockown? We don't get our advice from WHO. Surely in a once in a century global pandemic you need to trust your own experts and make things like lockdowns work for you?

I also don't get what you mean by "shifting the goal posts". Surely the outcome is the same for all of us? Controlling the virus. Here in Australia and NZ we were bunkered down in lockdowns while the UK govt was handing out vouchers for people to use at pubs and restaurants. I know they have lots of different lockdowns up North, but they were either imposed too late, eased off too early, or not supported by other strategies such as hotel quarantine.

Our lockdowns would have been almost entirely useless too without other measures, including extremely strict mandatory hotel quarantine for all infected cases and all overseas arrivals. the Hotel quarantine frameworks have been more important in NZ and Aust to stop the spread of the virus.

Anyway, this isn't a point scoring exercise and I am not here to gloat or pour scorn on the NH. But your ideological hatred of lockdowns is plain wrong.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Rugby2023 »

The virus can't be controlled, it's airborne. It's going to pass through all countries, unless they lockdown forever. Meanwhile lockdown destroys everything in its path, economies, lives, soul and spirit. It's a ruinous totalitarian Chinese solution that we were stupid enough to copy.
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Ali's Choice wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:02 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:21 pm
Ali's Choice wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:11 am
badmannotinjapan wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:23 am Been in lockdown since December 26th and Ontario is racking up 3000+ a day. Lockdowns work so well. f**king joke for 1%.
Your govt was arguably 9 months too late. Lockdowns work if government's have the courage to go early and go hard. If they have the courage to ignore the naysayers who will make every excuse in the book to delay or avoid lockdowns.
Except again, you are distorting what they were supposed to be. Lockdowns per the WHO were supposed to be a last resort to give your healthcare service time to rebuild and tool up systems.

NZ and Australia went away from that and that's fine, you have special circumstances that allows this, but it is not what "lockdown" is for most.

What the data shows is;

1) lockdowns per the WHO meaning really don't work. Populations have adapted by the time they are implemented regardless. The information vacuum is causing this.

2) lockdowns "early and hard" are what Australia/NZ did because they followed the West when they were in a good season and the mutant strain of last Spring hadn't reached you. That set you up with going for suppression/elimination.

Other places that locked down "early and hard" have seen the thing rebound hard. The Czech Republic, Poland - the "star" performers in the Spring in Europe had dismal Autumns. The circuit breaker in Wales did not work. The Autumn lockdown in Ireland also did not work, it merely stored up expectation of freedom which has seen things go to pot.

If you argument is to keep lockdowns forever then go ahead, but that is shifting the goal posts on what they were supposed to be and is wholly impractical.

As we are close to a vaccine, there is a good argument to just keep the lockdowns there. When the circumstances change, our strategy should too. But we'd be in a dark place without those vaccines.
I don't want to be argumentative, and I am very sensitive to what you guys up North are suffering through right now, but I just don't get your attitude towards lockdowns. Lockdowns that are imposed for as long as they need to be imposed for. I don't know why you keep going on about what lockdowns are "supposed to be" or repeating WHO's definition of a lockown? We don't get our advice from WHO. Surely in a once in a century global pandemic you need to trust your own experts and make things like lockdowns work for you?

I also don't get what you mean by "shifting the goal posts". Surely the outcome is the same for all of us? Controlling the virus. Here in Australia and NZ we were bunkered down in lockdowns while the UK govt was handing out vouchers for people to use at pubs and restaurants. I know they have lots of different lockdowns up North, but they were either imposed too late, eased off too early, or not supported by other strategies such as hotel quarantine.

Our lockdowns would have been almost entirely useless too without other measures, including extremely strict mandatory hotel quarantine for all infected cases and all overseas arrivals. the Hotel quarantine frameworks have been more important in NZ and Aust to stop the spread of the virus.

Anyway, this isn't a point scoring exercise and I am not here to gloat or pour scorn on the NH. But your ideological hatred of lockdowns is plain wrong.


Says someone who never goes out, is on full pay and likes being locked down.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Ali's Choice »

Rugby2023 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:06 pm The virus can't be controlled, it's airborne. It's going to pass through all countries, unless they lockdown forever. Meanwhile lockdown destroys everything in its path, economies, lives, soul and spirit. It's a ruinous totalitarian Chinese solution that we were stupid enough to copy.
That's simply dishonest and alarmist. It's certainly not true in the Australian context.

Australia's economy is back to pre-COVID levels. Our shops, restaurants, bars and businesses have almost all re-opened. I'm currently on holiday on the Sunshine Coast. Beaches are packed, restaurants and cafes are packed, my hotel is at 100% occupancy, and no virus to speak of. We aren't being complacent though, as our Premier showed in Brisbane last week, one case of community infection and we will shut the f**k down until it is managed.
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Ali's Choice
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Ali's Choice »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:09 pm Says someone who never goes out, is on full pay and likes being locked down.


Image
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Ali's Choice wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:18 pm
Rugby2023 wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:06 pm The virus can't be controlled, it's airborne. It's going to pass through all countries, unless they lockdown forever. Meanwhile lockdown destroys everything in its path, economies, lives, soul and spirit. It's a ruinous totalitarian Chinese solution that we were stupid enough to copy.
That's simply dishonest and alarmist. It's certainly not true in the Australian context.

Australia's economy is back to pre-COVID levels. Our shops, restaurants, bars and businesses have almost all re-opened. I'm currently on holiday on the Sunshine Coast. Beaches are packed, restaurants and cafes are packed, my hotel is at 100% occupancy, and no virus to speak of. We aren't being complacent though, as our Premier showed in Brisbane last week, one case of community infection and we will shut the f**k down until it is managed.

Your economy is digging things out of the ground for China to use.


This man is impervious to facts and statistics though. He will remain scared for himself selfishly demanding others pay the price for his fear. All the while on full pay etc.
bimboman
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

Ali's Choice wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:20 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:09 pm Says someone who never goes out, is on full pay and likes being locked down.


Image


Bedwetter,
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

RodneyRegis wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:44 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:36 am Good news, the lockdown measure in London and the SE are having an effect as Covid hospital Admissions Start to Fall:

Image
Looks familiar.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/wil ... n-the-nhs-

Look at the state of that graph. It's all over the shop and bears no resemblance to lockdown dates, lag or tiers.
It clearly shows that over the 2 main lockdowns cases went down after a while. The their system worked until the new variant came into play, The data form the north west shows that. I've one to say lockdowns out comes are also due to other factors and circumstances, but the data clearly shows once the lag is sorted measures to reduce spread of COVID work.
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dantedelew
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by dantedelew »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:11 pm Lockdown here failing the most vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/Stat_O_Guy/status/1 ... 3632483328
Just had a quick look at the graph and honestly, I'm not sure what it's trying to tell me. It doesn't even say whether it's covid admissions or general admissions. What does normal look like for this cohort of people?
I'm not familiar with the Stat_O_Guy but he seems to have quite a large vaccine "sceptical" crowd. It would be good if he labelled the charts clearly or linked to sources. Unless I've missed that??
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:32 pm
RodneyRegis wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:44 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:36 am Good news, the lockdown measure in London and the SE are having an effect as Covid hospital Admissions Start to Fall:

Image
Looks familiar.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/wil ... n-the-nhs-

Look at the state of that graph. It's all over the shop and bears no resemblance to lockdown dates, lag or tiers.
It clearly shows that over the 2 main lockdowns cases went down after a while. The their system worked until the new variant came into play, The data form the north west shows that. I've one to say lockdowns out comes are also due to other factors and circumstances, but the data clearly shows once the lag is sorted measures to reduce spread of COVID work.


It’s generally accepted that cases were already fallen before the first lockdown could have taken affect.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:33 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:11 pm Lockdown here failing the most vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/Stat_O_Guy/status/1 ... 3632483328
Just had a quick look at the graph and honestly, I'm not sure what it's trying to tell me. It doesn't even say whether it's covid admissions or general admissions. What does normal look like for this cohort of people?
I'm not familiar with the Stat_O_Guy but he seems to have quite a large vaccine "sceptical" crowd. It would be good if he labelled the charts clearly or linked to sources. Unless I've missed that??

It shows the scale in the rise of admissions from care homes. I’m sorry his presentation isn’t optimal for you.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by dantedelew »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:37 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:33 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:11 pm Lockdown here failing the most vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/Stat_O_Guy/status/1 ... 3632483328
Just had a quick look at the graph and honestly, I'm not sure what it's trying to tell me. It doesn't even say whether it's covid admissions or general admissions. What does normal look like for this cohort of people?
I'm not familiar with the Stat_O_Guy but he seems to have quite a large vaccine "sceptical" crowd. It would be good if he labelled the charts clearly or linked to sources. Unless I've missed that??

It shows the scale in the rise of admissions from care homes. I’m sorry his presentation isn’t optimal for you.
So not Covid related?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:41 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:37 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:33 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:11 pm Lockdown here failing the most vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/Stat_O_Guy/status/1 ... 3632483328
Just had a quick look at the graph and honestly, I'm not sure what it's trying to tell me. It doesn't even say whether it's covid admissions or general admissions. What does normal look like for this cohort of people?
I'm not familiar with the Stat_O_Guy but he seems to have quite a large vaccine "sceptical" crowd. It would be good if he labelled the charts clearly or linked to sources. Unless I've missed that??

It shows the scale in the rise of admissions from care homes. I’m sorry his presentation isn’t optimal for you.
So not Covid related?

Nah, the excess deaths of the people are unlikely to be Covid related right ?
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dantedelew
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by dantedelew »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:42 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:41 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:37 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:33 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:11 pm Lockdown here failing the most vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/Stat_O_Guy/status/1 ... 3632483328
Just had a quick look at the graph and honestly, I'm not sure what it's trying to tell me. It doesn't even say whether it's covid admissions or general admissions. What does normal look like for this cohort of people?
I'm not familiar with the Stat_O_Guy but he seems to have quite a large vaccine "sceptical" crowd. It would be good if he labelled the charts clearly or linked to sources. Unless I've missed that??

It shows the scale in the rise of admissions from care homes. I’m sorry his presentation isn’t optimal for you.
So not Covid related?

Nah, the excess deaths of the people are unlikely to be Covid related right ?
You've lost me. You're now saying the chart is excess deaths?
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:35 pm
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:32 pm
RodneyRegis wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:44 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:36 am Good news, the lockdown measure in London and the SE are having an effect as Covid hospital Admissions Start to Fall:

Image
Looks familiar.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/wil ... n-the-nhs-

Look at the state of that graph. It's all over the shop and bears no resemblance to lockdown dates, lag or tiers.
It clearly shows that over the 2 main lockdowns cases went down after a while. The their system worked until the new variant came into play, The data form the north west shows that. I've one to say lockdowns out comes are also due to other factors and circumstances, but the data clearly shows once the lag is sorted measures to reduce spread of COVID work.


It’s generally accepted that cases were already fallen before the first lockdown could have taken affect.
We went into lockdown in late march and cases still went up for most of April. Have you read your news upside down for the past year?
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:46 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:42 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:41 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:37 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:33 pm
Just had a quick look at the graph and honestly, I'm not sure what it's trying to tell me. It doesn't even say whether it's covid admissions or general admissions. What does normal look like for this cohort of people?
I'm not familiar with the Stat_O_Guy but he seems to have quite a large vaccine "sceptical" crowd. It would be good if he labelled the charts clearly or linked to sources. Unless I've missed that??

It shows the scale in the rise of admissions from care homes. I’m sorry his presentation isn’t optimal for you.
So not Covid related?

Nah, the excess deaths of the people are unlikely to be Covid related right ?
You've lost me. You're now saying the chart is excess deaths?


I’m sorry you don’t understand either the fairly clear graph or my words, as I said his presentation is optimal. Don’t you worry about it,
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Blackrock Bullet
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

Ali's Choice wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:02 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:21 pm
Ali's Choice wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:11 am
badmannotinjapan wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:23 am Been in lockdown since December 26th and Ontario is racking up 3000+ a day. Lockdowns work so well. f**king joke for 1%.
Your govt was arguably 9 months too late. Lockdowns work if government's have the courage to go early and go hard. If they have the courage to ignore the naysayers who will make every excuse in the book to delay or avoid lockdowns.
Except again, you are distorting what they were supposed to be. Lockdowns per the WHO were supposed to be a last resort to give your healthcare service time to rebuild and tool up systems.

NZ and Australia went away from that and that's fine, you have special circumstances that allows this, but it is not what "lockdown" is for most.

What the data shows is;

1) lockdowns per the WHO meaning really don't work. Populations have adapted by the time they are implemented regardless. The information vacuum is causing this.

2) lockdowns "early and hard" are what Australia/NZ did because they followed the West when they were in a good season and the mutant strain of last Spring hadn't reached you. That set you up with going for suppression/elimination.

Other places that locked down "early and hard" have seen the thing rebound hard. The Czech Republic, Poland - the "star" performers in the Spring in Europe had dismal Autumns. The circuit breaker in Wales did not work. The Autumn lockdown in Ireland also did not work, it merely stored up expectation of freedom which has seen things go to pot.

If you argument is to keep lockdowns forever then go ahead, but that is shifting the goal posts on what they were supposed to be and is wholly impractical.

As we are close to a vaccine, there is a good argument to just keep the lockdowns there. When the circumstances change, our strategy should too. But we'd be in a dark place without those vaccines.
I don't want to be argumentative, and I am very sensitive to what you guys up North are suffering through right now, but I just don't get your attitude towards lockdowns. Lockdowns that are imposed for as long as they need to be imposed for. I don't know why you keep going on about what lockdowns are "supposed to be" or repeating WHO's definition of a lockown? We don't get our advice from WHO. Surely in a once in a century global pandemic you need to trust your own experts and make things like lockdowns work for you?

I also don't get what you mean by "shifting the goal posts". Surely the outcome is the same for all of us? Controlling the virus. Here in Australia and NZ we were bunkered down in lockdowns while the UK govt was handing out vouchers for people to use at pubs and restaurants. I know they have lots of different lockdowns up North, but they were either imposed too late, eased off too early, or not supported by other strategies such as hotel quarantine.

Our lockdowns would have been almost entirely useless too without other measures, including extremely strict mandatory hotel quarantine for all infected cases and all overseas arrivals. the Hotel quarantine frameworks have been more important in NZ and Aust to stop the spread of the virus.

Anyway, this isn't a point scoring exercise and I am not here to gloat or pour scorn on the NH. But your ideological hatred of lockdowns is plain wrong.
Because that is who we responded to. That is where all public health authorities take their lead from, they are the main experts. You guys departed from that advice, well done, but that's the way it is.

You can not sustain lockdowns indefinitely, it is unaffordable. That's the reality. Without the vaccine we would all be in a brutal position. You guys would need your borders virtually shut for the next couple of years, we would have to make more decisions on trade offs.

On the bolded, it has been pointed out to you time and time again that this is dribble. You locked down when the rest of the West did. You were fortunate that the highly infectious strain had not reached you to the same degree as it had in Europe and that you were in summer. Your PH experts were then convinced to break from the WHO, that's great but it is what it is.

The rest of hotel quarantines, good luck, you did that. It wasn't possible in this part of the world.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:46 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:35 pm
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:32 pm
RodneyRegis wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:44 am
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:36 am Good news, the lockdown measure in London and the SE are having an effect as Covid hospital Admissions Start to Fall:

Image
Looks familiar.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/wil ... n-the-nhs-

Look at the state of that graph. It's all over the shop and bears no resemblance to lockdown dates, lag or tiers.
It clearly shows that over the 2 main lockdowns cases went down after a while. The their system worked until the new variant came into play, The data form the north west shows that. I've one to say lockdowns out comes are also due to other factors and circumstances, but the data clearly shows once the lag is sorted measures to reduce spread of COVID work.


It’s generally accepted that cases were already fallen before the first lockdown could have taken affect.
We went into lockdown in late march and cases still went up for most of April. Have you read your news upside down for the past year?


Cases went up because we went from testing 10 to 10,000 a day etc. It’s an irrelevance.
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dantedelew
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by dantedelew »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:47 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:46 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:42 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:41 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:37 pm


It shows the scale in the rise of admissions from care homes. I’m sorry his presentation isn’t optimal for you.
So not Covid related?

Nah, the excess deaths of the people are unlikely to be Covid related right ?
You've lost me. You're now saying the chart is excess deaths?


I’m sorry you don’t understand either the fairly clear graph or my words, as I said his presentation is optimal. Don’t you worry about it,
No need to apologise. The line on the graph is visually clear yes. What is not clear is whether they are general admissions or covid admissions; there's no mention of excess deaths; you didn't say his presentation was optimal; I'm not sure how you link the poorly labelled and un-sourced graph to a statement about lockdown.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by eldanielfire »

bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:49 pm
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:46 pm

We went into lockdown in late march and cases still went up for most of April. Have you read your news upside down for the past year?


Cases went up because we went from testing 10 to 10,000 a day etc. It’s an irrelevance.
Testing only increased in a significant way at the end of April/start of May, that is when we started to see cases go down, so increased testing did not show an increase jump in the positive test figures.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by danny_fitz »

Chris Robshaw's bar will be hosting vaccinations in SW London it would seem. Nice of him.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by MrDominator »

Chaps,

I had the coronavirus over Christmas and experienced no symptoms whatsoever. I've had significantly worse colds, let alone bouts of the flu.

As such, it's quite clear to me that anyone with superior genes has absolutely nothing to fear from this virus. A hearty Englishman with a powerful physique can ride through this supposed 'disease' without even breaking sweat. It's really nothing to fear.

Frankly, locking down the entire economy for something that 80% of people will only experience asymptomatically, or mildly, is bonkers.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:51 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:47 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:46 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:42 pm
dantedelew wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:41 pm
So not Covid related?

Nah, the excess deaths of the people are unlikely to be Covid related right ?
You've lost me. You're now saying the chart is excess deaths?


I’m sorry you don’t understand either the fairly clear graph or my words, as I said his presentation is optimal. Don’t you worry about it,
No need to apologise. The line on the graph is visually clear yes. What is not clear is whether they are general admissions or covid admissions; there's no mention of excess deaths; you didn't say his presentation was optimal; I'm not sure how you link the poorly labelled and un-sourced graph to a statement about lockdown.


Ok, the admissions from the vulnerable rose and kept rising regardless of stricter rules.


We know currently we have excess deaths.


It is poorly labelled though.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Gospel »

danny_fitz wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:14 pm Chris Robshaw's bar will be hosting vaccinations in SW London it would seem. Nice of him.
Yes it is. Also much needed PR after the Barbarians debacle.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by Blackrock Bullet »

eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:05 pm
bimboman wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:49 pm
eldanielfire wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:46 pm

We went into lockdown in late march and cases still went up for most of April. Have you read your news upside down for the past year?


Cases went up because we went from testing 10 to 10,000 a day etc. It’s an irrelevance.
Testing only increased in a significant way at the end of April/start of May, that is when we started to see cases go down, so increased testing did not show an increase jump in the positive test figures.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
By any estimate, the R value was tumbling during March. It was below 1 in the UK just a few days after, and likely was before lockdown.

R was below 1 in Ireland pre Lockdown.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by bimboman »

A recent study regarding the severity of lockdowns and their efficacy.


https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484


These are real deal scientists.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by ovalball »

MrDominator wrote: Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:16 pm Chaps,

I had the coronavirus over Christmas and experienced no symptoms whatsoever. I've had significantly worse colds, let alone bouts of the flu.

As such, it's quite clear to me that anyone with superior genes has absolutely nothing to fear from this virus. A hearty Englishman with a powerful physique can ride through this supposed 'disease' without even breaking sweat. It's really nothing to fear.

Frankly, locking down the entire economy for something that 80% of people will only experience asymptomatically, or mildly, is bonkers.
Wrong login Bimbo
ovalball
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Re: Coronavirus Thread. Virus v humans

Post by ovalball »

3rd consecutive day that (weekly) new cases have fallen in my locality :thumbup:
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