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 Post subject: The 2020 market meltdown
PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:09 am 
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I think we need a separate thread to COVID, because that is simply the straw that broke the camel's back.

Some major turbulence in markets this morning.
OPEC fiasco over the weekend, drop in oil prices.
US futures hit circuit breaker.
Major drop in AUD.

Things are starting to smell GFC-like.
Buckle up.

Image


Last edited by massive_field_goal on Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:19 am 
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Location: End of the road, turn right and first house on the left
Will prices go down to encourage buying? - I'm almost all cashed up


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:32 am 
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A sense of proportion: ASX back to Feb '19 levels.

Not a crash but definitely more to come; no doubt in my mind that China's stats are far worse than currently admitted.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:43 am 
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The world does not revolve around the ASX200.

US treasuries at all time lows, 30 years at < 1%.

I agree, it may be a slow grind down.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:41 am 
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Enzedder wrote:
Will prices go down to encourage buying? - I'm almost all cashed up


you'll probably see cheap petrol for a while.

the oil crash is quite something, even as I type. we're down below GFC levels and getting near to 15 year lows. i can't see shale oil produces, who were already operating on thin margins, surviving this. there will be job losses.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:54 am 
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How will Russia and Venezuela fair in this? Two countries highly dependent on oil prices.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:19 am 
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Some lurid rumours floating around market that some large bank had an absolute disaster in their bond trading desk last week. Apparently a short of government bonds (long end).


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:22 am 
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LandOTurk wrote:
How will Russia and Venezuela fair in this? Two countries highly dependent on oil prices.

Saudi's are hoping it's absolutely devastating for them - which is why they are doing it


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:27 am 
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749a wrote:
LandOTurk wrote:
How will Russia and Venezuela fair in this? Two countries highly dependent on oil prices.

Saudi's are hoping it's absolutely devastating for them - which is why they are doing it


Well, I never thought I'd side with Saudis in anything but this I approve :thumbup:
_______________________

I'm still mad at EU for not refusing to reduce their Gas/Oil trade with Russia. Greedy twats still have the balls to speak of high moral values after that.


As for markets, well... As I see it. Stocks are for sale. People who invested during the trough of 2008 made quite a lot of money. I didn't have any cash back then but I'm going all-in on this one. Ofc I'll go for the tech stocks which are always going to rebound. In the worst-case scenario, it might take years. Tesla is still priced 15% higher than my purchase value, I'll sell it and hope it drops a bit so I can buy the same amount of stocks cheaper.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:49 am 
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I was just reading the CNBC morning squawk
Can't believe the drop in oil price
30% drop in a day?
Fcking hell
At around $30 now


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:44 am 
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Cartman wrote:
I was just reading the CNBC morning squawk
Can't believe the drop in oil price
30% drop in a day?
Fcking hell
At around $30 now


Saudis’ economic stimulus. The US and Europe have had good economic growth and record low rates for so long, so now there are few levers to pull to get out of the shit. US has already looked at QE - once the ‘last resort’ measure, but now just another trick to keep the unsustainable party going.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:47 am 
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Ffs, it’s a great buy opportunity. 5-10 years free performance.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:53 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Ffs, it’s a great buy opportunity. 5-10 years free performance.

Sure. Go nuts. Put your house on it.

Or perhaps, the real pain hasn’t even started yet.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:57 am 
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towny wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Ffs, it’s a great buy opportunity. 5-10 years free performance.

Sure. Go nuts. Put your house on it.

Or perhaps, the real pain hasn’t even started yet.



If we are referring to equities , not quite the house but a good chunk. It’s free money.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:00 am 
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bimboman wrote:
towny wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Ffs, it’s a great buy opportunity. 5-10 years free performance.

Sure. Go nuts. Put your house on it.

Or perhaps, the real pain hasn’t even started yet.



If we are referring to equities , not quite the house but a good chunk. It’s free money.


You should leverage right up and make the most of this sure thing. Don’t let fear hold you back. :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:18 am 
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towny wrote:
bimboman wrote:
towny wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Ffs, it’s a great buy opportunity. 5-10 years free performance.

Sure. Go nuts. Put your house on it.

Or perhaps, the real pain hasn’t even started yet.



If we are referring to equities , not quite the house but a good chunk. It’s free money.


You should leverage right up and make the most of this sure thing. Don’t let fear hold you back. :thumbup:


It won’t it’s free money. Fundamentally nothing changes .


Last edited by bimboman on Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:20 am 
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ok, let's see some screen shots of your trades :nod:


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:21 am 
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LandOTurk wrote:
How will Russia and Venezuela fair in this? Two countries highly dependent on oil prices.

The list of those saying ‘Who knows?’ will be a long one. But not as long as the list of those saying ‘Who cares?’.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:47 am 
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bimboman wrote:
towny wrote:
bimboman wrote:
towny wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Ffs, it’s a great buy opportunity. 5-10 years free performance.

Sure. Go nuts. Put your house on it.

Or perhaps, the real pain hasn’t even started yet.



If we are referring to equities , not quite the house but a good chunk. It’s free money.


You should leverage right up and make the most of this sure thing. Don’t let fear hold you back. :thumbup:


It won’t it’s free money. Fundamentally nothing changes .


Most of my money is in Funds and Trusts. I decided not to panic early doors and am now a bit too late. Getting lots of emails to ride it out as over the long term this is the best option. I have been taking my dividends to boost retirement cash but I am thinking of reinvesting them now to at least counter a tiny bit of the damage.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:04 am 
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BM, ride it out. Fundamentally if 150 million people die the market is still cheap at the levels we are at.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:19 am 
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BM, didn't you retire at 50 or something?


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:42 am 
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lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:46 am 
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backrow wrote:
lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.



They’ll be fine. I put in last Monday and Friday . Do the basic numbers on if 150 million non productive people die. It doesn’t change much.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:50 am 
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bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.



They’ll be fine. I put in last Monday and Friday . Do the basic numbers on if 150 million non productive people die. It doesn’t change much.


There's something of the Malthus about you Bimbo


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:53 am 
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Any of you gurus explain why the oil price has crashed?

Is it cause people are flogging oil futures as they think there will be less demand this year?


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:54 am 
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Frodder wrote:
bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.



They’ll be fine. I put in last Monday and Friday . Do the basic numbers on if 150 million non productive people die. It doesn’t change much.


There's something of the Malthus about you Bimbo



Probably, he was wrong as well.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:56 am 
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bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.



They’ll be fine. I put in last Monday and Friday . Do the basic numbers on if 150 million non productive people die. It doesn’t change much.



just realised that the shares ISA's my dad held, do they freeze the account & value on notification of death, or do they pay out just whatever its worth at the end ? I'm sure I had this explained to me at the time but wasn't able to fully take it in.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:57 am 
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Give me some god damn helicopter money!


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:57 am 
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tc27 wrote:
Any of you gurus explain why the oil price has crashed?

Is it cause people are flogging oil futures as they think there will be less demand this year?


Saudi wanted to limit production 2.5% to maintain prices
Russia said GTFO
Saudi then said ' nah, fudge you'
race to bottom


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:58 am 
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backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.



They’ll be fine. I put in last Monday and Friday . Do the basic numbers on if 150 million non productive people die. It doesn’t change much.



just realised that the shares ISA's my dad held, do they freeze the account & value on notification of death, or do they pay out just whatever its worth at the end ? I'm sure I had this explained to me at the time but wasn't able to fully take it in.

whatever the price is when they're liquidated, I reckon.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:04 am 
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merry! wrote:
backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.



They’ll be fine. I put in last Monday and Friday . Do the basic numbers on if 150 million non productive people die. It doesn’t change much.



just realised that the shares ISA's my dad held, do they freeze the account & value on notification of death, or do they pay out just whatever its worth at the end ? I'm sure I had this explained to me at the time but wasn't able to fully take it in.

whatever the price is when they're liquidated, I reckon.


so do they liquidate at point of death notification, or only when the probate stuff gets resolved 4-5 months later ? I fear the latter, meaning I've received another kick in the nuts. :(


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:05 am 
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Well apart from your dad dying .


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:09 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Well apart from your dad dying .


yes, apart from that. thanks for pointing it out. :|


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:11 am 
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Heating oil down £30 for 500 litres in a week. It will be interesting to see the price in another 2-3 weeks. I may well order some more!


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:13 am 
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backrow wrote:
merry! wrote:
backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.



They’ll be fine. I put in last Monday and Friday . Do the basic numbers on if 150 million non productive people die. It doesn’t change much.



just realised that the shares ISA's my dad held, do they freeze the account & value on notification of death, or do they pay out just whatever its worth at the end ? I'm sure I had this explained to me at the time but wasn't able to fully take it in.

whatever the price is when they're liquidated, I reckon.


so do they liquidate at point of death notification, or only when the probate stuff gets resolved 4-5 months later ? I fear the latter, meaning I've received another kick in the nuts. :(

whenever the bank or whoever is instructed to put the isa shares to market (ie, whatever price they realised when that was done during the probate period).

the executor of your father's will is probably the best person to ask (when they were sold).


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:18 am 
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yeah, I kind of hope they already had done that bit as we've had the 'final value of estate' gubbins about 5 weeks ago


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:23 am 
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backrow wrote:
merry! wrote:
backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
lolz. I topped up £1000 each on BP, RDSA, BHP and RMG last week

FML
:x

:lol:

lucky i've not had some inheritence from my dad yet so there are bargains just waiting.



They’ll be fine. I put in last Monday and Friday . Do the basic numbers on if 150 million non productive people die. It doesn’t change much.



just realised that the shares ISA's my dad held, do they freeze the account & value on notification of death, or do they pay out just whatever its worth at the end ? I'm sure I had this explained to me at the time but wasn't able to fully take it in.

whatever the price is when they're liquidated, I reckon.


so do they liquidate at point of death notification, or only when the probate stuff gets resolved 4-5 months later ? I fear the latter, meaning I've received another kick in the nuts. :(


Another kick in the Marlers.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:24 am 
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backrow wrote:
yeah, I kind of hope they already had done that bit as we've had the 'final value of estate' gubbins about 5 weeks ago



Then they’ve sold


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:25 am 
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We have a long way to go before we hit the bottom of this one.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:29 am 
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6.Jones wrote:
We have a long way to go before we hit the bottom of this one.



:thumbup:

Will take your advice before proper pilling in then.


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