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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:09 am 
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sewa wrote:
So Italy looks like its finally going bankrupt. Great time to buy etc


10y yields nudged 7% in 2011/2012 and are only threatening 2% at the moment. I don't think the ECB wil throw in the towel just yet.

but it is worth keeping an eye on. spain too obviously.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:36 pm 
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US 1st quarter GDP in at -4.8%.

All hell broke lose when it was falsely reported as +4.8% lol

One wonders with consternation how that could even really happen. :thumbdown:


Last edited by massive_field_goal on Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:50 pm 
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Airbus $500m loss :uhoh:


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:54 pm 
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I see predictions of -35% for Q2, the stock markets are just ignoring this data?


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:00 pm 
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The worse the data, even beyond expected values, the more the stockmarket soars.

I have read an awful lot of analysis and I don't think anyone really understands why.

Except that it is a Pavlov dog waiting for stimulus.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:33 pm 
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massive_field_goal wrote:
The worse the data, even beyond expected values, the more the stockmarket soars.

I have read an awful lot of analysis and I don't think anyone really understands why.

Except that it is a Pavlov dog waiting for stimulus.


I'm at a loss how this is sitting where it is. I'll gladly watch from the sidelines for the next few months


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:42 pm 
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The logic is that the lockdown will be finishing soon and that fiscal stimulus will be enough to return modest earnings next year. Next year interest rate and therefore bind returns will be negligible.


I don’t follow that logic in regard to a return quickly to the status quo.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:44 pm 
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pump and dump ahead of earnings season


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:14 pm 
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sewa wrote:
I see predictions of -35% for Q2, the stock markets are just ignoring this data?

Part of it is simply there is an awful lot of money sloshing around and it has to go somewhere. Even with virus disaster and profits cut by 2/3 (eg Bp this week), there are firms still operations currently and profitably and don’t have to be Whiney media bitches like Branson


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:20 am 
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Quote:
Twelve countries have asked the European Commission, the executive branch of the European Union, to suspend the law that requires airlines to refund passengers for cancelled flights during the pandemic

The letter was drafted by France and the Netherlands and co-signed by Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Malta, Poland and Portugal. It asks the Commission to make a change to the Europe-wide regulation.

"When the wording of the regulation was conceived, the current global crisis and its impact on air travel could not have been foreseen. The goal shared by the European Union and its Member States must now be to preserve the structure of the European air traffic market beyond the current crisis, while considering the interests and necessary protection of passengers," said the letter.

The 12 countries propose that airlines should be allowed to offer passengers vouchers for later use instead of a cash refund, arguing this strategy would protect both airlines and customers -- as well as help market recovery by increasing the flexibility of travel.

Following a meeting of EU Tourism ministers on Monday, Croatia’s tourism minister Gari Cappelli said that tourism represents more than 10% of the EU’s GDP and employs almost 12% of the work force.

Speaking Wednesday, shortly before the letter was sent, European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova said, "We are working on a workable solution, a European solution which might result, and which might not result, it’s not clear at this moment in some legislative proposal. If we speak about vouchers then voluntary vouchers, but the debate is ongoing."


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:26 am 
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^^^If the laws don't suit you, just write a letter and get them changed.

Does the consumer have any say?

----
Quote:
Incidentally, when Jerome Powell was asked what he thinks of this absolute idiocy [markets 10% off all time highs], and if he is guilty of encouraging moral hazard and pushing stocks higher, he said that "we want markets to work, we are not focused on asset prices", to which he added that "it's been good to see markets working." Which by implication means that when markets are down, they no longer "work."


what powell means by this is the Fed is happy when the plumbing is working. the problem is that asset prices dropping is obviously an immediate threat to the plumbing, whereas with asset prices rising - the threat to the plumbing is much more abstract and can be pushed into the future, manifesting itself in massive inequality and eventually revolution.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:01 am 
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Markets always look ahead. I think the lack of scale in the slump in equity prices is because investors still think it will be more of a 'V' recovery than a 'U'


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:01 am 
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The correct answer is most of them are playing with other peoples money / pensions. In fairness their punters asked for their money to be in the markets so into the markets it goes


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:13 pm 
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US initial claims out at 3.8m against 3.5m expected, and the market, for the first time since the crisis began, showing signs of weakness on this news.

Image

And we start to see the effects of the lockdown kick in - banks in Australia and Shell dropping dividends for the first time in god knows how long.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:51 pm 
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massive_field_goal wrote:
US initial claims out at 3.8m against 3.5m expected, and the market, for the first time since the crisis began, showing signs of weakness on this news.

Image

And we start to see the effects of the lockdown kick in - banks in Australia and Shell dropping dividends for the first time in god knows how long.


How many is the total now claiming?


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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2020 5:28 am 
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Leinster in London wrote:
massive_field_goal wrote:
US initial claims out at 3.8m against 3.5m expected, and the market, for the first time since the crisis began, showing signs of weakness on this news.

Image

And we start to see the effects of the lockdown kick in - banks in Australia and Shell dropping dividends for the first time in god knows how long.


How many is the total now claiming?


18m continuing, implied 11% unemployed


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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2020 5:39 am 
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Have to wonder who's driving this sell-off today: was anyone surprised at the magnitude of Europe's YoY GDP fall? Signals that Q2 data may present another decent buying opportunity, would have thought 30%+ falls in YoY Q2 GDP are already priced in but today's sell off suggests not.


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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2020 7:51 am 
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We are stuffed, governments throughout the world were so quick to lockdown and they are now stuck as the public are shitting themselves over any easing of measures and the economy continues to tank.

The human cost of this collapse is going to be horrific and I firmly believe history will not judge our leaders kindly.

No chance of the fabled V recovery as that was predicated on life going back to normal after the lockdown, that ain't happening and we are probably not going back to 'normal' until end of 2021 imo.


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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2020 8:29 am 
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Caley_Red wrote:
Have to wonder who's driving this sell-off today: was anyone surprised at the magnitude of Europe's YoY GDP fall? Signals that Q2 data may present another decent buying opportunity, would have thought 30%+ falls in YoY Q2 GDP are already priced in but today's sell off suggests not.


I think a pull back was necessary, no? Last nights US employement figures were the first time they weren't preluded by a counteracting piece of propaganda (Fed action, Congress bill, Gilead drug rumour, oil accord etc etc - gee I wonder who is organising these pre-bad-stat announcements?). The drop resulting from that may have been a signal enough to tell everyone it was time to cash in and take a breather.

There may also have been end of month rebalancing out of equities into bonds, trade war jitters etc.


Last edited by massive_field_goal on Fri May 01, 2020 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2020 9:14 am 
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Shamelessly stolen from twitter:

Quote:
+++Ryanair to cut 3,000 jobs+++

Presumably they'll charge staff £60 to print out their own P45s.


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PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2020 10:27 am 
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So Warren Buffett has dumped all his airline stocks and has warned that the markets have a long way more to fall


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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2020 9:33 am 
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bimbo, back in the green with your brent?


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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2020 9:37 am 
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massive_field_goal wrote:
bimbo, back in the green with your brent?



Yep, made a little turn (I sold it yesterday actually). Personal trades have gone well fingers crossed. I took a hit on a small cap oil stock position that I’d had for years. But made decent on Voda and the Oil.

I’ll be selling Euros as my next trade so possible no trades for a month or so now. Equities are a crap shoot.


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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2020 1:20 pm 
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US ADP employment change for April

- employment change -20.236M vs -21.00M estimate
- prior month revised to -149K vs -27K last month
- small (less than 50 employees) -6 million
- median businesses (50 to 499 employees) -5.3 million
- large businesses greater than 500 employees -9 million

ouch. that is some serious loss of employment. these figures carry more weight than the weekly ones


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PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2020 1:28 pm 
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Interesting, better than estimated by almost a million jobs. Excellent data for a Bullish rally.


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:16 am 
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Bank of England forecasts are pretty scary. The reporting of it though is demonstrating how little economics reporters actually understand.


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:21 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Bank of England forecasts are pretty scary. The reporting of it though is demonstrating how little economics reporters actually understand.


But put 5 economists in a room and they will give you 5 different answers, and I say that as someone with a BA and Msc in the stuff


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:23 am 
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backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Bank of England forecasts are pretty scary. The reporting of it though is demonstrating how little economics reporters actually understand.


But put 5 economists in a room and they will give you 5 different answers, and I say that as someone with a BA and Msc in the stuff



I’m more referring to the basics of a 14% fall followed by a 15% recovery isn’t a positive at the end.


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:29 am 
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bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Bank of England forecasts are pretty scary. The reporting of it though is demonstrating how little economics reporters actually understand.


But put 5 economists in a room and they will give you 5 different answers, and I say that as someone with a BA and Msc in the stuff



I’m more referring to the basics of a 14% fall followed by a 15% recovery isn’t a positive at the end.

That’s more basic maths fail than economics - my main bugbear in lack of financial nous is when people say ‘we need more money so will double the tax rate to get double the money’


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:33 am 
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backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Bank of England forecasts are pretty scary. The reporting of it though is demonstrating how little economics reporters actually understand.


But put 5 economists in a room and they will give you 5 different answers, and I say that as someone with a BA and Msc in the stuff



I’m more referring to the basics of a 14% fall followed by a 15% recovery isn’t a positive at the end.

That’s more basic maths fail than economics - my main bugbear in lack of financial nous is when people say ‘we need more money so will double the tax rate to get double the money’



Yep, just look at the economic editors not grasping the basic maths though.


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:36 am 
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bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Bank of England forecasts are pretty scary. The reporting of it though is demonstrating how little economics reporters actually understand.


But put 5 economists in a room and they will give you 5 different answers, and I say that as someone with a BA and Msc in the stuff



I’m more referring to the basics of a 14% fall followed by a 15% recovery isn’t a positive at the end.

That’s more basic maths fail than economics - my main bugbear in lack of financial nous is when people say ‘we need more money so will double the tax rate to get double the money’



Yep, just look at the economic editors not grasping the basic maths though.


Was there any mitigating context though like ‘all compared to current GDP’ or anything ? Or just simply not realising adding 15% to a smaller number than you started means you still end up with less than you started ?


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:40 am 
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Quote:
The good news is the
@bankofengland
scenario suggests the UK economy could bounce back even quicker than it fell, with 2021 GDP growth of 15%. That would be the strongest year for growth since 1704


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:40 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Bank of England forecasts are pretty scary. The reporting of it though is demonstrating how little economics reporters actually understand.


Journalism is not in great shape generally. There's definitely not enough money in it to attract many people with any financial background.


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:47 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Quote:
The good news is the
@bankofengland
scenario suggests the UK economy could bounce back even quicker than it fell, with 2021 GDP growth of 15%. That would be the strongest year for growth since 1704


It’s just lazy journalism , and I think you are getting too bogged down on literal meaning. News bloke wants to show how 2021 could be epic, and doesn’t specifically say at the end of it we will be better than when we started. Finishing only just over 1 whole percent down isn’t too bad and probably does qualify as a ‘bounce back’ tbf


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:49 am 
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backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Quote:
The good news is the
@bankofengland
scenario suggests the UK economy could bounce back even quicker than it fell, with 2021 GDP growth of 15%. That would be the strongest year for growth since 1704


It’s just lazy journalism , and I think you are getting too bogged down on literal meaning. News bloke wants to show how 2021 could be epic, and doesn’t specifically say at the end of it we will be better than when we started. Finishing only just over 1 whole percent down isn’t too bad and probably does qualify as a ‘bounce back’ tbf



He followed it up arguing that it meant a positive return including with a professor of economics at Kings.


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PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2020 9:54 am 
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bimboman wrote:
backrow wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Quote:
The good news is the
@bankofengland
scenario suggests the UK economy could bounce back even quicker than it fell, with 2021 GDP growth of 15%. That would be the strongest year for growth since 1704


It’s just lazy journalism , and I think you are getting too bogged down on literal meaning. News bloke wants to show how 2021 could be epic, and doesn’t specifically say at the end of it we will be better than when we started. Finishing only just over 1 whole percent down isn’t too bad and probably does qualify as a ‘bounce back’ tbf



He followed it up arguing that it meant a positive return including with a professor of economics at Kings.


Did the prof not say ‘will still be lower overall though ‘?

But yes I agree it just sounds thick


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PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2020 2:12 pm 
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Image

US unemployment figures in for the month of April. Worst since the Great Depression. By far.

NASDAQ closing in on all time highs, SP500 at 2019 levels.

There is obviously an enormous dichotomy going on here, and it is quite unnerving.


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PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2020 2:38 pm 
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massive_field_goal wrote:
Image

US unemployment figures in for the month of April. Worst since the Great Depression. By far.

NASDAQ closing in on all time highs, SP500 at 2019 levels.

There is obviously an enormous dichotomy going on here, and it is quite unnerving.


Clear to see where all the Fed's money went.

The stock market has become literally meaningless to discussing overall economic health. It seems to only matter for people's 401k plans.


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PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2020 11:14 pm 
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Flyin Ryan wrote:
massive_field_goal wrote:
Image

US unemployment figures in for the month of April. Worst since the Great Depression. By far.

NASDAQ closing in on all time highs, SP500 at 2019 levels.

There is obviously an enormous dichotomy going on here, and it is quite unnerving.


Clear to see where all the Fed's money went.

The stock market has become literally meaningless to discussing overall economic health. It seems to only matter for people's 401k plans.


When unemployed people start dying of hunger on the streets there may be a restructuring of US economics.


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PostPosted: Sat May 09, 2020 6:36 am 
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massive_field_goal wrote:
Image

US unemployment figures in for the month of April. Worst since the Great Depression. By far.

NASDAQ closing in on all time highs, SP500 at 2019 levels.

There is obviously an enormous dichotomy going on here, and it is quite unnerving.


The dichotomy is that there are now two America's - the thesis of Charle's Murray's "Coming Apart", with the middle class being sucked out. Seneca's mate Tucker has also been beating this drum for a decade. This crisis is disproportionately affecting the bottom half, and the top half continue to enjoy their stocks. People who have any sort of emergency savings are just riding this out.

We have a society that is selecting for smart people who can delay gratification. If you're not that, you're fu%ked.


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