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PostPosted: Sat May 09, 2020 6:38 am 
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There is another figure of around 6 million people who were left off the list as they are not actively looking for work.

Experienced people who know it's pointless at present


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PostPosted: Sat May 09, 2020 1:54 pm 
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Flyin Ryan wrote:
massive_field_goal wrote:
Image

US unemployment figures in for the month of April. Worst since the Great Depression. By far.

NASDAQ closing in on all time highs, SP500 at 2019 levels.

There is obviously an enormous dichotomy going on here, and it is quite unnerving.


Clear to see where all the Fed's money went.

The stock market has become literally meaningless to discussing overall economic health. It seems to only matter for people's 401k plans.


The stock market has always been meaningless and the created if GDP has even said it's not accurate for reflecting a nations wealth. It's just a simple number to discuss.


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:45 am 
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Very good few days for risk assets, the medium term inflation environment looks to be quite supportive as well.


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:50 am 
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Leinster in London wrote:
Flyin Ryan wrote:
massive_field_goal wrote:
Image

US unemployment figures in for the month of April. Worst since the Great Depression. By far.

NASDAQ closing in on all time highs, SP500 at 2019 levels.

There is obviously an enormous dichotomy going on here, and it is quite unnerving.


Clear to see where all the Fed's money went.

The stock market has become literally meaningless to discussing overall economic health. It seems to only matter for people's 401k plans.


When unemployed people start dying of hunger on the streets there may be a restructuring of US economics.


Decision makers in the US couldn’t care less if unemployed people die in the streets, all that would happen is that their pool boy costs will go down as they will be able to pay even less. The only economics that would change is those companies making what the poorest consume, like food.


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2020 8:54 am 
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I like haggis wrote:
Flyin Ryan wrote:
massive_field_goal wrote:
Image

US unemployment figures in for the month of April. Worst since the Great Depression. By far.

NASDAQ closing in on all time highs, SP500 at 2019 levels.

There is obviously an enormous dichotomy going on here, and it is quite unnerving.


Clear to see where all the Fed's money went.

The stock market has become literally meaningless to discussing overall economic health. It seems to only matter for people's 401k plans.


The stock market has always been meaningless and the created if GDP has even said it's not accurate for reflecting a nations wealth. It's just a simple number to discuss.


Can understand the ‘meaningless’ comment , but I don’t wholly agree: markets are a measure of perceived value, and the fact so much of it is ultimately owned by pensions , then their level directly effects pensioners income (not everyone will have wisely moved into cash and near cash near to their retiriement )

It’s even more of a factor given that interest rates on annuities , near cash instruments are so low so that it becomes more worthwhile taking a punt on shares.


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2020 10:47 am 
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Uk unemployment April up 856,000 ......


900,000 more unemployed than Feb 2020.


Yay the lockdown.


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2020 10:59 am 
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This time there will be no FED chairman uttering the words "Irrational Exuberance"

This time is different

No its not !

S&P to 1500 by march 2021

Buy yez guns, gold and USD while yez still can!


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2020 11:07 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Uk unemployment April up 856,000 ......


900,000 more unemployed than Feb 2020.


Yay the lockdown.


and that's just the start


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 3:20 am 
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German airline Lufthansa bail out agreed to reports newspaper Handelsblatt
- government to get a 20% stake
- and a convertible bond worth 5%

I think this is reasonable, although maybe the stake should be higher.

Bailout's should be similar to this for all crucial industry that is failing.

NASDAQ 100 to within spitting range of all time highs. Other indices straining to get any higher than recent highs. Reasonable?


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 10:20 am 
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Frodder wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Uk unemployment April up 856,000 ......


900,000 more unemployed than Feb 2020.


Yay the lockdown.


and that's just the start

What % of people on furlough do we think are realistically unemployed rather than waiting for demand to pick back up? 50%?


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 10:24 am 
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croyals wrote:
Frodder wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Uk unemployment April up 856,000 ......


900,000 more unemployed than Feb 2020.


Yay the lockdown.


and that's just the start

What % of people on furlough do we think are realistically unemployed rather than waiting for demand to pick back up? 50%?[/quMore

More than 0%, less than 100%.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 8:31 pm 
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Frodder wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Uk unemployment April up 856,000 ......


900,000 more unemployed than Feb 2020.


Yay the lockdown.


and that's just the start


House building is about to be a bloodbath. Proper bad times.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 8:36 pm 
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DragsterDriver wrote:
Frodder wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Uk unemployment April up 856,000 ......


900,000 more unemployed than Feb 2020.


Yay the lockdown.


and that's just the start


House building is about to be a bloodbath. Proper bad times.



My mates a brickie for hire and reckons very bad times coming in north Essex.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 8:39 pm 
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Could be worse, we have Sturgeon now promoting a 4 day week, that’s exactly the sort of policy to get the economy firing :roll:

She’s utterly clueless on the economy and has a 30 year old history grad as her finance minister. If I was rest of the UK I would cut us loose asap.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 8:41 pm 
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Lorthern Nights wrote:
Could be worse, we have Sturgeon now promoting a 4 day week, that’s exactly the sort of policy to get the economy firing :roll:

She’s utterly clueless on the economy and has a 30 year old history grad as her finance minister. If I was rest of the UK I would cut us loose asap.



Thing is she’s bright enough to know it only increases the grievance if budgets are tightened from Westminster..... all she has to avoid is an Indy vote.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 8:44 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
Could be worse, we have Sturgeon now promoting a 4 day week, that’s exactly the sort of policy to get the economy firing :roll:

She’s utterly clueless on the economy and has a 30 year old history grad as her finance minister. If I was rest of the UK I would cut us loose asap.



Thing is she’s bright enough to know it only increases the grievance if budgets are tightened from Westminster..... all she has to avoid is an Indy vote.


She’s a canny politician but clueless on the economy, a proper lefty and luckily for her doesn’t have to worry about the income side of the equation


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 8:49 pm 
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Lorthern Nights wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
Could be worse, we have Sturgeon now promoting a 4 day week, that’s exactly the sort of policy to get the economy firing :roll:

She’s utterly clueless on the economy and has a 30 year old history grad as her finance minister. If I was rest of the UK I would cut us loose asap.



Thing is she’s bright enough to know it only increases the grievance if budgets are tightened from Westminster..... all she has to avoid is an Indy vote.


She’s a canny politician but clueless on the economy, a proper lefty and luckily for her doesn’t have to worry about the income side of the equation



Do you think you’ll get “recovery “ taxes up there? I’m expecting a whacking wealth tax from Sunak down here.


I don’t quite know who you hold your peace locally.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:00 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
Could be worse, we have Sturgeon now promoting a 4 day week, that’s exactly the sort of policy to get the economy firing :roll:

She’s utterly clueless on the economy and has a 30 year old history grad as her finance minister. If I was rest of the UK I would cut us loose asap.



Thing is she’s bright enough to know it only increases the grievance if budgets are tightened from Westminster..... all she has to avoid is an Indy vote.


She’s a canny politician but clueless on the economy, a proper lefty and luckily for her doesn’t have to worry about the income side of the equation



Do you think you’ll get “recovery “ taxes up there? I’m expecting a whacking wealth tax from Sunak down here.


I don’t quite know who you hold your peace locally.


We already pay a higher ticket on income tax but stuff like ct etc is still controlled by Westminster.

If a wealth tax comes in by Sunak we will be clobbered too. The question is how they go after it as what is liquid is a tricky one, you can leave it tied up in companies which makes it hard for them to get at. Might be wise taking cash out now and shift it overseas and ride out the storm.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:07 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
Frodder wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Uk unemployment April up 856,000 ......


900,000 more unemployed than Feb 2020.


Yay the lockdown.


and that's just the start


House building is about to be a bloodbath. Proper bad times.



My mates a brickie for hire and reckons very bad times coming in north Essex.


People have no idea, it won’t be 2008 it’ll be 1990 I fear. Barrett’s have made a 15% cut on labour rates as a start. The big groundworkers I know aren’t even buying materials, they’re robbing it between sites to finish show homes and not digging any new plots.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:07 pm 
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Yep, agree on that. I am lucky to invest in a company that has lots of foreign holdings part of the agreement is that the holding company is flexible on location.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:10 pm 
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Quote:
People have no idea, it won’t be 2008 it’ll be 1990 I fear. Barrett’s have made a 15% cut on labour rates as a start. The big groundworkers I know aren’t even buying materials, they’re robbing it between sites to finish show homes and not digging any new plots.


Yep, Moody homes are doing that across all her sites , ditto Granville dev. Both are smallish but experienced developers (15-30 houses a year).

The large persimmon site down the road has closed the access road on the second phase completely.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 pm 
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bimboman wrote:
Yep, agree on that. I am lucky to invest in a company that has lots of foreign holdings part of the agreement is that the holding company is flexible on location.


I haven’t needed to get aggressive with my tax planning yet but depending what’s coming I’m able to move locations too, not everything but certainly enough.


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 9:44 pm 
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Lorthern Nights wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Yep, agree on that. I am lucky to invest in a company that has lots of foreign holdings part of the agreement is that the holding company is flexible on location.


I haven’t needed to get aggressive with my tax planning yet but depending what’s coming I’m able to move locations too, not everything but certainly enough.



Good man. Bit clearer is I won’t have to move (I might) just that the investment can. I don’t worry too much about income tax etc anymore.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 5:41 am 
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Lorthern Nights wrote:
Could be worse, we have Sturgeon now promoting a 4 day week, that’s exactly the sort of policy to get the economy firing :roll:

She’s utterly clueless on the economy and has a 30 year old history grad as her finance minister. If I was rest of the UK I would cut us loose asap.



She's like a badly programmed algorithm, what seems to fall out of her is half-baked ideas drawn entirely from the 'what's trendy in centre-left think-tanks at the moment' meshed together with a strong distrust of the private sector and hard left social policy views (named person, self identification bill etc.).

Not an intelligent policymaker.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 8:07 am 
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Nissan considering 20,000 job cuts worldwide, or more than 10% of workforce.

Just the start


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 8:13 am 
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Caley_Red wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
Could be worse, we have Sturgeon now promoting a 4 day week, that’s exactly the sort of policy to get the economy firing :roll:

She’s utterly clueless on the economy and has a 30 year old history grad as her finance minister. If I was rest of the UK I would cut us loose asap.



She's like a badly programmed algorithm, what seems to fall out of her is half-baked ideas drawn entirely from the 'what's trendy in centre-left think-tanks at the moment' meshed together with a strong distrust of the private sector and hard left social policy views (named person, self identification bill etc.).

Not an intelligent policymaker.



“Caley, can you give us a definition of evil please”


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:03 am 
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UK borrowing for April. 62 billion. Twice the analysts predictions.


We are going bankrupt.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:23 am 
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bimboman wrote:
UK borrowing for April. 62 billion. Twice the analysts predictions.


We are going bankrupt.


We really aren't.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:24 am 
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tc27 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
UK borrowing for April. 62 billion. Twice the analysts predictions.


We are going bankrupt.


We really aren't.



The predicted borrowing for the whole of 2020 was 55 billion.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:29 am 
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bimboman wrote:
UK borrowing for April. 62 billion. Twice the analysts predictions.


We are going bankrupt.


Don't worry, MMT people will be along soon to tell you it's all fine :lol:


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:30 am 
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Lemoentjie wrote:
bimboman wrote:
UK borrowing for April. 62 billion. Twice the analysts predictions.


We are going bankrupt.


Don't worry, MMT people will be along soon to tell you it's all fine :lol:



Indeed, I’m not a buyer....

Though I am of equity indexes as they’ll inflate.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:33 am 
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bimboman wrote:
DragsterDriver wrote:
Frodder wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Uk unemployment April up 856,000 ......


900,000 more unemployed than Feb 2020.


Yay the lockdown.


and that's just the start


House building is about to be a bloodbath. Proper bad times.



My mates a brickie for hire and reckons very bad times coming in north Essex.


Struggling for sympathy to be honest. I tried to hire one to do facing brick work on my extension last year and the pricks were wanting nearly £500 a day.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:40 am 
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I am not a believer in MMT nor do I think high government borrowing is a good thing (its just far better than the alternatives currently) but the assertion that the UK will go 'bankrupt' is nonsense.

But if you really believe it then I am sure you can bet against sovereign debt with your own money.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:45 am 
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tc27 wrote:
I am not a believer in MMT nor do I think high government borrowing is a good thing (its just far better than the alternatives currently) but the assertion that the UK will go 'bankrupt' is nonsense.

But if you really believe it then I am sure you can bet against sovereign debt with your own money.



Sorry, you’re correct they’ll just smash the value of sterling and eventually create inflation.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:50 am 
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bimboman wrote:
tc27 wrote:
I am not a believer in MMT nor do I think high government borrowing is a good thing (its just far better than the alternatives currently) but the assertion that the UK will go 'bankrupt' is nonsense.

But if you really believe it then I am sure you can bet against sovereign debt with your own money.



Sorry, you’re correct they’ll just smash the value of sterling and eventually create inflation.


Yeah borrowing at these levels is risky and likely to have negative consequences (but is still better than the alternative).

However you said bankrupt...

When specifically will the country be unable to pay its debts?

Whats the value of your short position on UK Gilts?


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 10:55 am 
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tc27 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
tc27 wrote:
I am not a believer in MMT nor do I think high government borrowing is a good thing (its just far better than the alternatives currently) but the assertion that the UK will go 'bankrupt' is nonsense.

But if you really believe it then I am sure you can bet against sovereign debt with your own money.



Sorry, you’re correct they’ll just smash the value of sterling and eventually create inflation.


Yeah borrowing at these levels is risky and likely to have negative consequences (but is still better than the alternative).

However you said bankrupt...

When specifically will the country be unable to pay its debts?

Whats the value of your short position on UK Gilts?



It will fail to pay its debts when the interest rates required to support international purchases over take the ability to borrow. But correct again they can print as much as they like, it however isn’t consequences free.


Another 1,000 quid in April alone.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 11:00 am 
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You can't go bankrupt in the UK with your own currency, but you can create a currency that nobody wants. It will lose its value, imports become more expensive, financing debt grows, printing presses go into overdrive, currency deflates further. Its the Venezuelan or Zimbabwean model.

All currencies in this category at the moment.

While not technically a bankruptcy, it's not exactly solvent either. Even if it is technically.


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 11:28 am 
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All countries are borrowing/printing money massively at the moment. The US Treasury has estimate that it will borrow over $3 Trillion in this quarter alone - which is nearly 3 times the total borrowing for 2019


If the UK is going bankrupt, we're going bankrupt with the rest of the world


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 11:28 am 
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nardol wrote:
You can't go bankrupt in the UK with your own currency, but you can create a currency that nobody wants. It will lose its value, imports become more expensive, financing debt grows, printing presses go into overdrive, currency deflates further. Its the Venezuelan or Zimbabwean model.

All currencies in this category at the moment.

While not technically a bankruptcy, it's not exactly solvent either. Even if it is technically.



One of the biggest issues being you can’t sell he home currency debt due to the currency devaluation.....

See the Asian bond crisis for details


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 11:30 am 
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Saint wrote:
All countries are borrowing/printing money massively at the moment. The US Treasury has estimate that it will borrow over $3 Trillion in this quarter alone - which is nearly 3 times the total borrowing for 2019


If the UK is going bankrupt, we're going bankrupt with the rest of the world



Comforting.


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