Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

All things Rugby
Post Reply
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 18569
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:49 am

Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Raggs »

Sorry for this. Chatting to an head analytics guy, who does a lot of stats work (world cup, olympics etc).

I'd told him that germanys low death count could be due to them recording deaths differently, because of what you said in the big thread.

Do you have a link to backup what you said, about them not counting it if there were other conditions present?

Right now, the german death count is ludicrously low.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 18569
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:49 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Raggs »

Bumping myself I'm afraid.

So far from what I've learned, this probably isn't the case.

Germany's age range of infected has 85% under 65yrs. Suggesting their testing is currently excellent, seemingly helped by not getting early infections. As cases in a country grow and testing everyone who has a cough is no longer viable, the age range will skew to the elderly as they're most likely to get hospitalised.

Basically Germany seem to be at the beginning, but identifying well. If my memory serves their increase in cases suggests we can still expect to see them follow the rest of Europe to a good degree. Hopefully not too breaking point though.
User avatar
Double
Posts: 3446
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Double »

I'm afraid I can't find anything citeable. I saw it repeated a great deal on Reddit, but it looks like I might have just been repeating some fake news. Sorry for misleading you!

Speculation seems to be that Germany's cases of infection are in a much lower age bracket (40s rather than 60s) and/or their testing regime is picking up the fringe cases which others are not.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 18569
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:49 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Raggs »

Double wrote:I'm afraid I can't find anything citeable. I saw it repeated a great deal on Reddit, but it looks like I might have just been repeating some fake news. Sorry for misleading you!

Speculation seems to be that Germany's cases of infection are in a much lower age bracket (40s rather than 60s) and/or their testing regime is picking up the fringe cases which others are not.
They definitely have a skew to younger ages of infection compared to Italy, looks more like South Korea.

Now either it's avoiding the youngsters in Italy, or the Italians have given up testing everyone, and only test hospitalised cases, and therefore have a serious bias towards the elderly (my guess).
vitoplaysrugby
Posts: 302
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by vitoplaysrugby »

Raggs wrote:
Double wrote:I'm afraid I can't find anything citeable. I saw it repeated a great deal on Reddit, but it looks like I might have just been repeating some fake news. Sorry for misleading you!

Speculation seems to be that Germany's cases of infection are in a much lower age bracket (40s rather than 60s) and/or their testing regime is picking up the fringe cases which others are not.
They definitely have a skew to younger ages of infection compared to Italy, looks more like South Korea.

Now either it's avoiding the youngsters in Italy, or the Italians have given up testing everyone, and only test hospitalised cases, and therefore have a serious bias towards the elderly (my guess).
can confirm it's the bit in bold. Italy tested everyone for the first few weeks, then decided to only test those showing symptoms of infection.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 18569
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:49 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Raggs »

vitoplaysrugby wrote:
Raggs wrote:
Double wrote:I'm afraid I can't find anything citeable. I saw it repeated a great deal on Reddit, but it looks like I might have just been repeating some fake news. Sorry for misleading you!

Speculation seems to be that Germany's cases of infection are in a much lower age bracket (40s rather than 60s) and/or their testing regime is picking up the fringe cases which others are not.
They definitely have a skew to younger ages of infection compared to Italy, looks more like South Korea.

Now either it's avoiding the youngsters in Italy, or the Italians have given up testing everyone, and only test hospitalised cases, and therefore have a serious bias towards the elderly (my guess).
can confirm it's the bit in bold. Italy tested everyone for the first few weeks, then decided to only test those showing symptoms of infection.
Then they almost certainly moved on to only testing those who were hospitalised.

UK started off testing anyone with a connection, then anyone with symptoms, and rapidly realised that everyone with a cold was calling to be tested. Pointless and futile exercise. Now they've gone to testing hospitalised cases only (or rather, people with potential covid symptoms that are hospitalised, most tests are still negative).
User avatar
Lobby
Posts: 1598
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Lobby »

Italy also has a proportionately older population than many other Countries. In 2018 about 23% of the Italian population was over 65. In Germany 21% of the population is over 65, while in the UK the number is around 18%.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 18569
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:49 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Raggs »

Lobby wrote:Italy also has a proportionately older population than many other Countries. In 2018 about 23% of the Italian population was over 65. In Germany 21% of the population is over 65, while in the UK the number is around 18%.
https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/c ... 200a15a7bf

Shows the numbers.

It's too different to be placed on difference in population differences.

You test everyone you can early on, then as the numbers grow too much, you test those who are hospitalised, because you need that information for diagnosis.
User avatar
JM2K6
Posts: 37186
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by JM2K6 »

Raggs wrote:
vitoplaysrugby wrote:
Raggs wrote:
Double wrote:I'm afraid I can't find anything citeable. I saw it repeated a great deal on Reddit, but it looks like I might have just been repeating some fake news. Sorry for misleading you!

Speculation seems to be that Germany's cases of infection are in a much lower age bracket (40s rather than 60s) and/or their testing regime is picking up the fringe cases which others are not.
They definitely have a skew to younger ages of infection compared to Italy, looks more like South Korea.

Now either it's avoiding the youngsters in Italy, or the Italians have given up testing everyone, and only test hospitalised cases, and therefore have a serious bias towards the elderly (my guess).
can confirm it's the bit in bold. Italy tested everyone for the first few weeks, then decided to only test those showing symptoms of infection.
Then they almost certainly moved on to only testing those who were hospitalised.

UK started off testing anyone with a connection, then anyone with symptoms, and rapidly realised that everyone with a cold was calling to be tested. Pointless and futile exercise. Now they've gone to testing hospitalised cases only (or rather, people with potential covid symptoms that are hospitalised, most tests are still negative).
At no point were we testing anyone with symptoms and no link to a confirmed case or a travel link.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 18569
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:49 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Raggs »

JM2K6 wrote:At no point were we testing anyone with symptoms and no link to a confirmed case or a travel link.
Thought we were for a period, early on of course?
User avatar
Clive
Posts: 3218
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Clive »

To date, out of 179,000 world wide cases 77,000 have had the virus and survived, there have been 7,000 deaths.
So if we get 1,000000 infections so around 30,000 deaths.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 18569
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:49 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by Raggs »

Clive wrote:To date, out of 179,000 world wide cases 77,000 have had the virus and survived, there have been 7,000 deaths.
So if we get 1,000000 infections so around 30,000 deaths.
That's assuming that every single person with the illness was tested. South Korea's number are probably representation. 8000 with 75 deaths. So 1,000,000 = 10,000 deaths.

Just below 1% is what's being reported at the moment.

That's not even the larger issue though. It's that something like 15% are thought to need hospitalisation (I think that figure still holds true), that's the figure that will be overwhelming the health service.
argus
Posts: 5689
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am
Location: Florida

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by argus »

Saw a stat that Germany has 29 icu beds per 1,000

Italy has 11

UK has 7

Maybe they are able to handle the treatment better
User avatar
JM2K6
Posts: 37186
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by JM2K6 »

Raggs wrote:
JM2K6 wrote:At no point were we testing anyone with symptoms and no link to a confirmed case or a travel link.
Thought we were for a period, early on of course?
Nope, not without the pre-existing reason. They essentially denied community transmission for ages.
User avatar
JM2K6
Posts: 37186
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Achtung! DOUBLE! Oi, look in here.

Post by JM2K6 »

argus wrote:Saw a stat that Germany has 29 icu beds per 1,000

Italy has 11

UK has 7

Maybe they are able to handle the treatment better
Fairly meaningless stat as we're able to ramp that number up at short notice according to the NHS
Post Reply