Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

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Fat Albert
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Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Fat Albert »

Apologies if Red Rebelled but

Not satisfied with the BSE disaster (he predicted a worst case of 500,000 deaths, there were actually less than 200) Neil Ferguson's Covid-19 epidemiology paper that drove Boris (and many other western democracies) to the insanity of lockdown has been demolished from a computer code perspective.

Essentially, each time you initialise his model using the same parameters you get a different answer...

Not sufficiently happy to have his professional career destroyed by misleading governments, again, he completed his fall from grace by inviting his married lover to his home in contravention of his own lock down rules.

One rule for us and one for the plebs, eh Professor?

Linky to the article

Image

Although, had she not been an activist for Avaaz, the Soros-funded climate end-of-the-world-is-nigh org I might of
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Gavin Duffy
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Gavin Duffy »

Wow, some anonymous freak. Why wouldn't they use their real name?
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Duff Paddy
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Duff Paddy »

That photo must be from Tinder - she doesn’t look like that in the other photos
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Raggs
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Raggs »

Skeptic website. Anonymous. Using a heavily edited version of the code and not what Ferguson used.
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Gavin Duffy
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Gavin Duffy »

Probably russian
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Lobby
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Lobby »

Raggs wrote:Skeptic website. Anonymous. Using a heavily edited version of the code and not what Ferguson used.
Added to which, the number of actual deaths suffered so far suggests if anything that we should have imposed a stricter lock down earlier. Arguing that we should have ignored Ferguson’s models, not locked down and let the virus run its course really does look like lunatic territory now
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message #2527204
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by message #2527204 »

Duff Paddy wrote:That photo must be from Tinder - she doesn’t look like that in the other photos
Massaging the Staats
Varsity Way
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Varsity Way »

Duff Paddy wrote:That photo must be from Tinder - she doesn’t look like that in the other photos
His looks like it's from Grindr but I am no expert.
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Raggs
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Raggs »

Lobby wrote:
Raggs wrote:Skeptic website. Anonymous. Using a heavily edited version of the code and not what Ferguson used.
Added to which, the number of actual deaths suffered so far suggests if anything that we should have imposed a stricter lock down earlier. Arguing that we should have ignored Ferguson’s models, not locked down and let the virus run its course really does look like lunatic territory now
I do always love the people who claim that there was no need for lockdown, since it wasn't that bad. Ignoring completely that death rate starts dropping almost exactly when Ferguson's figures suggested it would once we started introducing measures, and that his predicted mortality of 0.77% seems to still be pretty close to the truth.
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Sefton
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Sefton »

Back in the day I had a familiarity with street pharmacology but I can’t even begin to fathom what shit Seneca is sticking up his snout these days.
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Short Man Syndrome
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Short Man Syndrome »

Sefton wrote:Back in the day I had a familiarity with street pharmacology but I can’t even begin to fathom what shit Seneca is sticking up his snout these days.
He would have been injecting the bleach pretty hard, as per Trump's orders...
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Sandstorm
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Sandstorm »

Short Man Syndrome wrote:
Sefton wrote:Back in the day I had a familiarity with street pharmacology but I can’t even begin to fathom what shit Seneca is sticking up his snout these days.
He would have been injecting the bleach pretty hard, as per Trump's orders...
:lol:
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Lenny
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Lenny »

And he goes from pseudo sophisticate to redneck shitkicker in one post. You can’t escape your roots Senile.
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Short Man Syndrome
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Short Man Syndrome »

Seneca of the Night wrote:
Short Man Syndrome wrote:
Sefton wrote:Back in the day I had a familiarity with street pharmacology but I can’t even begin to fathom what shit Seneca is sticking up his snout these days.
He would have been injecting the bleach pretty hard, as per Trump's orders...
Lying thick cunt.
Trump?
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Gavin Duffy
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Gavin Duffy »

Seneca of the Night wrote:
Short Man Syndrome wrote:
Sefton wrote:Back in the day I had a familiarity with street pharmacology but I can’t even begin to fathom what shit Seneca is sticking up his snout these days.
He would have been injecting the bleach pretty hard, as per Trump's orders...
Lying thick cunt.
So it was just the very great heat and light then?
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Mahoney
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Mahoney »

Fat Albert wrote:Apologies if Red Rebelled but
2 days after the news broke, on a site with a 565 page international COVID-19 thread that's been heavily about the UK, & another 95 page UK specific COVID-19 thread?

Of course it's a redrebel. How could it possibly not be?
DeDoc
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by DeDoc »

I'd have plenty of criticisms of Fergusson's model, but the fact that it gives different answers each time isn't an issue. Only an innumerate idiot would come to that conclusion. It is a stochastic model - meaning there are random variables (under certain 'rules'), so you expect a different answer each time. Any data you present is based on an analysis of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) instances of the model.

It's a little like flipping a coin 10 times and then complaining that you got 6 heads in one instance - that doesn't mean a biased coin, it just needs looking at the distribution of responses/results.

But idiots never get that; they like the cheap headlines.

TBF - if the reports of him having his BITTS over for a bit of extra-curricular are true, then yes he's a hypocrite and resignation/dismissal is not unwarranted
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Sefton
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Sefton »

Mahoney wrote:
Fat Albert wrote:Apologies if Red Rebelled but
2 days after the news broke, on a site with a 565 page international COVID-19 thread that's been heavily about the UK, & another 95 page UK specific COVID-19 thread?

Of course it's a redrebel. How could it possibly not be?
FA knows it is a RedRebel, he just wants to howl at the moon in front of audience.
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Fat Albert
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Fat Albert »

Raggs wrote:
Lobby wrote:
Raggs wrote:Skeptic website. Anonymous. Using a heavily edited version of the code and not what Ferguson used.
Added to which, the number of actual deaths suffered so far suggests if anything that we should have imposed a stricter lock down earlier. Arguing that we should have ignored Ferguson’s models, not locked down and let the virus run its course really does look like lunatic territory now
I do always love the people who claim that there was no need for lockdown, since it wasn't that bad. Ignoring completely that death rate starts dropping almost exactly when Ferguson's figures suggested it would once we started introducing measures, and that his predicted mortality of 0.77% seems to still be pretty close to the truth.
Sweden's virus death rate at 301 per million inhabitants is significantly lower than Britain, France, Italy and Spain...

Sweden's economy hasn't been destroyed, their kids are still in school and their kids kids kids won't have to pay for the consequences
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Frodder »

Seneca of the Night wrote:
Short Man Syndrome wrote:
Sefton wrote:Back in the day I had a familiarity with street pharmacology but I can’t even begin to fathom what shit Seneca is sticking up his snout these days.
He would have been injecting the bleach pretty hard, as per Trump's orders...
Lying thick cunt.
You're better than that Sen
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Muttonbirds
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Muttonbirds »

Fat Albert wrote:
Raggs wrote:
Lobby wrote:
Raggs wrote:Skeptic website. Anonymous. Using a heavily edited version of the code and not what Ferguson used.
Added to which, the number of actual deaths suffered so far suggests if anything that we should have imposed a stricter lock down earlier. Arguing that we should have ignored Ferguson’s models, not locked down and let the virus run its course really does look like lunatic territory now
I do always love the people who claim that there was no need for lockdown, since it wasn't that bad. Ignoring completely that death rate starts dropping almost exactly when Ferguson's figures suggested it would once we started introducing measures, and that his predicted mortality of 0.77% seems to still be pretty close to the truth.
Sweden's virus death rate at 301 per million inhabitants is significantly lower than Britain, France, Italy and Spain...

Sweden's economy hasn't been destroyed, their kids are still in school and their kids kids kids won't have to pay for the consequences
Norway's kids kids kids still have their grandparents.
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Muttonbirds
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Muttonbirds »

Frodder wrote:
Seneca of the Night wrote:
Short Man Syndrome wrote:
Sefton wrote:Back in the day I had a familiarity with street pharmacology but I can’t even begin to fathom what shit Seneca is sticking up his snout these days.
He would have been injecting the bleach pretty hard, as per Trump's orders...
Lying thick cunt.
You're better than that Sen
:lol: No, he's not.
bimboman
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by bimboman »

Fat Albert wrote:
Raggs wrote:
Lobby wrote:
Raggs wrote:Skeptic website. Anonymous. Using a heavily edited version of the code and not what Ferguson used.
Added to which, the number of actual deaths suffered so far suggests if anything that we should have imposed a stricter lock down earlier. Arguing that we should have ignored Ferguson’s models, not locked down and let the virus run its course really does look like lunatic territory now
I do always love the people who claim that there was no need for lockdown, since it wasn't that bad. Ignoring completely that death rate starts dropping almost exactly when Ferguson's figures suggested it would once we started introducing measures, and that his predicted mortality of 0.77% seems to still be pretty close to the truth.
Sweden's virus death rate at 301 per million inhabitants is significantly lower than Britain, France, Italy and Spain...

Sweden's economy hasn't been destroyed, their kids are still in school and their kids kids kids won't have to pay for the consequences

Sweden’s economy is still predicted to take a fall on almost the same scale as ours.
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Sefton »

Sweden’s death rate is higher than other Nordic countries that did lockdown, which is a more accurate comparison you disingenuous fruitcake.
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by shanky »

Seneca of the Night wrote:
Sefton wrote:Back in the day I had a familiarity with street pharmacology but I can’t even begin to fathom what shit Seneca is sticking up his snout these days.
I am high on clean living my friend. It's all early morning riverside runs and yoga and green juices before a working day in the home office ushering in the fourth industrial revolution. Mad Professor Pantsdown's lockdown has proven to be better for me that it was for him. Funny that.
Image
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by shanky »

Lenny wrote:And he goes from pseudo sophisticate to redneck shitkicker in one post. You can’t escape your roots Senile.
There's so much to like about the content and composition of this post.

It's the very definition of pithy, for one thing.

:lol:
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Frodder »

Sefton wrote:Sweden’s death rate is higher than other Nordic countries that did lockdown, which is a more accurate comparison you disingenuous fruitcake.
Yeah but they've had a good piss up in the process. The virus refuses to conform to the Swedish way
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Fat Albert »

DeDoc wrote:I'd have plenty of criticisms of Fergusson's model, but the fact that it gives different answers each time isn't an issue. Only an innumerate idiot would come to that conclusion. It is a stochastic model - meaning there are random variables (under certain 'rules'), so you expect a different answer each time. Any data you present is based on an analysis of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) instances of the model.
Should have read the article

1. His claims that the model the model is stochastic are untrue, its actually non-deterministic, you do understand the difference?

2. His code consisted of 15,000 lines of legacy authored by multiple academics (i.e. not professionals) over more than a decade. Forced to give the code base to Microsoft who re-wrote it using current tools only to discover that they couldn't replicated his results.

Whether or not you agree with the principle of the future of the Western world being determined by a team that demonstrably are amateurs at least we can agree that this guy is a cnut
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by Raggs »

Fat Albert wrote:
DeDoc wrote:I'd have plenty of criticisms of Fergusson's model, but the fact that it gives different answers each time isn't an issue. Only an innumerate idiot would come to that conclusion. It is a stochastic model - meaning there are random variables (under certain 'rules'), so you expect a different answer each time. Any data you present is based on an analysis of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) instances of the model.
Should have read the article

1. His claims that the model the model is stochastic are untrue, its actually non-deterministic, you do understand the difference?

2. His code consisted of 15,000 lines of legacy authored by multiple academics (i.e. not professionals) over more than a decade. Forced to give the code base to Microsoft who re-wrote it using current tools only to discover that they couldn't replicated his results.

Whether or not you agree with the principle of the future of the Western world being determined by a team that demonstrably are amateurs at least we can agree that this guy is a cnut
They rewrote it in a new language, and heavily modified it, according to the article.

Is it just me, or if you rewrite something, and it stops working, the first thing to look at is the re-writing, rather than the model that I'm fairly sure it wasn't just Ferguson was secretly running in his basement, telling all the other scientists not to look or run models themselves...
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Re: Neil Ferguson Goooooonnnnee...

Post by message #2527204 »

Raggs wrote:
Fat Albert wrote:
DeDoc wrote:I'd have plenty of criticisms of Fergusson's model, but the fact that it gives different answers each time isn't an issue. Only an innumerate idiot would come to that conclusion. It is a stochastic model - meaning there are random variables (under certain 'rules'), so you expect a different answer each time. Any data you present is based on an analysis of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) instances of the model.
Should have read the article

1. His claims that the model the model is stochastic are untrue, its actually non-deterministic, you do understand the difference?

2. His code consisted of 15,000 lines of legacy authored by multiple academics (i.e. not professionals) over more than a decade. Forced to give the code base to Microsoft who re-wrote it using current tools only to discover that they couldn't replicated his results.

Whether or not you agree with the principle of the future of the Western world being determined by a team that demonstrably are amateurs at least we can agree that this guy is a cnut
They rewrote it in a new language, and heavily modified it, according to the article.

Is it just me, or if you rewrite something, and it stops working, the first thing to look at is the re-writing, rather than the model that I'm fairly sure it wasn't just Ferguson was secretly running in his basement, telling all the other scientists not to look or run models themselves...

I'm sure microsoft's coders all have 10 years of epidemiology and virology experience to fall back on and get those holes dug in the right place.
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