Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

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Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

clydecloggie wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
slick wrote:
tc27 wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: Probably sees it as the best way to get a majority for Indy in the Holyrood elections, those sympathetic to the cause can now give their second pref to them as it will be very hard for the SNP to repeat Salmond's 2010 feat and if they lose ground that just allows Westminster to kick another vote into the long grass which they are trying to do anyway.
Yes, also he's fighting a war against the SNP over the trans issue.
Is he the Wings guy? If so, hasn't he said he's quite happy to pull the whole thing down to get his own way?
Yeah, he's similar to Dominic Cummings in that regard.
Aye, he's a grade A cvnt who seems to think his foul-mouthed rants are OK because 'that is how Scots are'. Dick.

He is also an incredibly astute commentator on Scottish politics with a photographic memory and dog-with-a-bone mindset, and he has found a really interesting loophole in the Scottish electoral system. If that party manages to rake in the pro-Indy list vote, the Unionist parties will be hit hard as they get a lot of MSPs through the list rather than constituencies. I would assume he will not stand himself, so the part of the Indy support he has successfully antagonised might even go for this.
The list MPs criticism is something he rages about regularly. Forgetting that the first time the SNP were in power, it was because of list MPs.

I'd be worried about his party turning into the UKIP of Scottish Nationalism. Not far right, but a bit loony with some really questionable candidates.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

Would be interesting if he got Salmond to lead it.

Not from my unionist standpoint re list msp’s etc but would make for an intriguing battle
Caley_Red
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Caley_Red »

I like haggis wrote:I think where Douglas Murray is wrong is liberalism isn't a set of defined values. It changes with generations change as outlooks, circumstances and the world changes. A lot changes in 10 years. He does touch on it always being loosely defined but I think it lacks any definition whatsoever.

I'm sorry to weigh in heavily here but that is absolute, unadulterated rubbish: liberalism has a fixed set of tenets that are invariant through time. They may be referred to as 'Classical Liberalism' on occasion but the the blend of the teachings of Smith, Burke, Hume and Mill can be boiled down (non-exhaustively) to the following principles: freedom of expression and speech, individual rights (civil and otherwise), democracy, limited government, free trade and markets and equality of opportunity. These are immutable to liberalism.

There may be elements which are more subjective but the argument he is making (correctly) identifies this on-going encroachment by these authoritarians as being illiberal, which it undoubtedly is.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Caley_Red »

clydecloggie wrote:"All of this emanates from those who come out of university educated to loathe our society"

What a loathsome quote, from the Speccie piece above. There are, undoubtedly, mad fringes to be found in the humanities departments of our Unis, but this is simply a casual assault on education.

For someone who writes stuff like that, all they deserve is a firm, concussive-strength, library sandwich to the ears, preferably with hard-cover versions of Das Kapital and The Wealth of Nations.

I don't think it is an uncontroversial view that many people are educated beyond their intelligence: I don't think the above quote is meant to mean that people are wholesale indoctrinated (although, as you allude to, some undoubtedly are) but, rather, they are in possession of a small amount of incomplete information but have been taught- discursively- to have a view on it but don't have, and are unwilling to read, the necessary background information.

That's how I read it, at least.
dpedin
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

Hearing we are preparing for a small peak in covid19 come August as reduction in lock down is implemented and a bigger peak in November/December as lock down continues and weather means more folk congregate indoors etc and also start of the regular cold and flu season. However our R number seems to be coming down and many areas of Scotland have very low numbers of infections. Glasgow and Lanarkshire are still the areas most affected. Most of those testing positive now seem to be health or care workers who are obviously more exposed to the virus. Overall, apart from some obvious instances of a minority breaking the rules, the distancing message seems to be working very well here and has been well observed. Those testing positive have on average less than 2 contacts who need to be traced and called etc. Hopefully the SG strategy of waiting to get the numbers as low as possible before loosening the lock down has created enough headroom to avoid the R going above 1 in August and in December and avoid a need for a more general return to lock down. So far the signs are looking positive. Wales are doing ok and NI are doing even better.

On the other hand the earlier relaxation of the lock down in England seems to be having a big impact with some regions now showing an R perilously close to or above 1 and the public seem to have decided the lock down is over. Some of the big protests, illegal raves and scrums as shops open will not help, I can see some difficulties ahead for parts of England.
bimboman
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by bimboman »

On the other hand the earlier relaxation of the lock down in England seems to be having a big impact with some regions now showing an R perilously close to or above 1 and the public seem to have decided the lock down is over. Some of the big protests, illegal raves and scrums as shops open will not help, I can see some difficulties ahead for parts of England.

Where in the UK is R above one?
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

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Last edited by Biffer29 on Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
I like haggis
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by I like haggis »

Caley_Red wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:"All of this emanates from those who come out of university educated to loathe our society"

What a loathsome quote, from the Speccie piece above. There are, undoubtedly, mad fringes to be found in the humanities departments of our Unis, but this is simply a casual assault on education.

For someone who writes stuff like that, all they deserve is a firm, concussive-strength, library sandwich to the ears, preferably with hard-cover versions of Das Kapital and The Wealth of Nations.

I don't think it is an uncontroversial view that many people are educated beyond their intelligence: I don't think the above quote is meant to mean that people are wholesale indoctrinated (although, as you allude to, some undoubtedly are) but, rather, they are in possession of a small amount of incomplete information but have been taught- discursively- to have a view on it but don't have, and are unwilling to read, the necessary background information.

That's how I read it, at least.
Alternatively university students and graduates are young, in unpayable debts, not much opportunity for housebuying, in a jobs market where a degree is no longer worth good jobs (any jobs with Corona), and their friends are going through the same so discuss these things. They also have a different view of what liberal is to the spectator and Douglas Murray.

University workers and teachers are primarily left wing because they're in similar positions. University work is often precarious living contract to contract. My dad worked universities as a researcher and the pressure of working grant to grant makes it not as cushy a job as you'd think. My sister is a primary school teacher and her class supplies have to be bought from a public Amazon wishlist because the school can't afford them - no surprise teachers aren't Tory minded.
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

I like haggis wrote:
Caley_Red wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:"All of this emanates from those who come out of university educated to loathe our society"

What a loathsome quote, from the Speccie piece above. There are, undoubtedly, mad fringes to be found in the humanities departments of our Unis, but this is simply a casual assault on education.

For someone who writes stuff like that, all they deserve is a firm, concussive-strength, library sandwich to the ears, preferably with hard-cover versions of Das Kapital and The Wealth of Nations.

I don't think it is an uncontroversial view that many people are educated beyond their intelligence: I don't think the above quote is meant to mean that people are wholesale indoctrinated (although, as you allude to, some undoubtedly are) but, rather, they are in possession of a small amount of incomplete information but have been taught- discursively- to have a view on it but don't have, and are unwilling to read, the necessary background information.

That's how I read it, at least.
Alternatively university students and graduates are young, in unpayable debts, not much opportunity for housebuying, in a jobs market where a degree is no longer worth good jobs (any jobs with Corona), and their friends are going through the same so discuss these things. They also have a different view of what liberal is to the spectator and Douglas Murray.

University workers and teachers are primarily left wing because they're in similar positions. University work is often precarious living contract to contract. My dad worked universities as a researcher and the pressure of working grant to grant makes it not as cushy a job as you'd think. My sister is a primary school teacher and her class supplies have to be bought from a public Amazon wishlist because the school can't afford them - no surprise teachers aren't Tory minded.
Yeah, it's hard being a postdoc. For example, If you're on 18 month or two year contracts, you quite often need to have several renewals and be on your third contract before you can get a mortgage.
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HKCJ
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by HKCJ »

Scottish students come out of Uni £36k up on their English counterparts.. that’s something for them to smile about
dpedin
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

bimboman wrote:
On the other hand the earlier relaxation of the lock down in England seems to be having a big impact with some regions now showing an R perilously close to or above 1 and the public seem to have decided the lock down is over. Some of the big protests, illegal raves and scrums as shops open will not help, I can see some difficulties ahead for parts of England.

Where in the UK is R above one?
I know I shouldn't respond but thought this might be of interest to others anyway.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
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inactionman
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by inactionman »

HKCJ wrote:Scottish students come out of Uni £36k up on their English counterparts.. that’s something for them to smile about
Degrees in England are typically 3 years, 4 would tend to be undergrad masters.

Which makes for a trivial debt of 27k assuming 9k p.a. fees.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

dpedin wrote:
bimboman wrote:
On the other hand the earlier relaxation of the lock down in England seems to be having a big impact with some regions now showing an R perilously close to or above 1 and the public seem to have decided the lock down is over. Some of the big protests, illegal raves and scrums as shops open will not help, I can see some difficulties ahead for parts of England.

Where in the UK is R above one?
I know I shouldn't respond but thought this might be of interest to others anyway.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Why shouldnt you respond, perfectly reasonable question?

Only area that might be above 1:

South West 0.8-1.1

Which is not conclusively above 1, just the upper range of the estimate.
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HKCJ
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by HKCJ »

inactionman wrote:
HKCJ wrote:Scottish students come out of Uni £36k up on their English counterparts.. that’s something for them to smile about
Degrees in England are typically 3 years, 4 would tend to be undergrad masters.

Which makes for a trivial debt of 27k assuming 9k p.a. fees.
Yes but Scottish degree are typically 4 so they are effectively saving 36k compared to English students studying in Scotland.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

I like haggis wrote:
Caley_Red wrote:
clydecloggie wrote:"All of this emanates from those who come out of university educated to loathe our society"

What a loathsome quote, from the Speccie piece above. There are, undoubtedly, mad fringes to be found in the humanities departments of our Unis, but this is simply a casual assault on education.

For someone who writes stuff like that, all they deserve is a firm, concussive-strength, library sandwich to the ears, preferably with hard-cover versions of Das Kapital and The Wealth of Nations.

I don't think it is an uncontroversial view that many people are educated beyond their intelligence: I don't think the above quote is meant to mean that people are wholesale indoctrinated (although, as you allude to, some undoubtedly are) but, rather, they are in possession of a small amount of incomplete information but have been taught- discursively- to have a view on it but don't have, and are unwilling to read, the necessary background information.

That's how I read it, at least.
Alternatively university students and graduates are young, in unpayable debts, not much opportunity for housebuying, in a jobs market where a degree is no longer worth good jobs (any jobs with Corona), and their friends are going through the same so discuss these things. They also have a different view of what liberal is to the spectator and Douglas Murray.

University workers and teachers are primarily left wing because they're in similar positions. University work is often precarious living contract to contract. My dad worked universities as a researcher and the pressure of working grant to grant makes it not as cushy a job as you'd think. My sister is a primary school teacher and her class supplies have to be bought from a public Amazon wishlist because the school can't afford them - no surprise teachers aren't Tory minded.
Haven't lecturers and teachers (and university students) been stereotypically left wing for decades? And I presume conservatives have been uncomfortable with it for equally as long, although the likes of Murray seem particularly strident about the wrongthink these days.

But yes, now graduates don't transform into property-owning, respectable professionals so perhaps it's no surprise that they are not tremendously grateful towards modern capitalism. Working in a call centre for £5/hour when I graduated left me pretty bitter!
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

Meanwhile a zoo wants to open:

https://twitter.com/EdinburghZoo/status ... 2528551936

Predictably its a sh*tfight in the replies between the Cybernats and the Rangers fans. :|
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inactionman
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by inactionman »

HKCJ wrote:
inactionman wrote:
HKCJ wrote:Scottish students come out of Uni £36k up on their English counterparts.. that’s something for them to smile about
Degrees in England are typically 3 years, 4 would tend to be undergrad masters.

Which makes for a trivial debt of 27k assuming 9k p.a. fees.
Yes but Scottish degree are typically 4 so they are effectively saving 36k compared to English students studying in Scotland.
Ah. Do English students pay fees in Scotland? I had it in my head they didn't. English universities can set their own fees up to £9k at last count (although what self-respecting uni is going to charge less than that and paint themselves as bargain basement?) so this would imply Scottish Universities have done likewise.

Vaguely recall my LEA paying my uni fees so perhaps there's mechanism to charge.

And, no, I'm not googling it, that implies effort.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by eldanielfire »

Biffer29 wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
This thread is for general Scottish political discussion, because this opinion piece doesn’t match your views is neither here no there. He makes some good arguments throughout the piece.

If UBI was even close to being a success why did Finland can it? Here’s a hint because it didn’t work but because Nicola is a fan I’m sure you are too.
So this isn't quite true LN. The final report released in May 2020 found:

The latest evidence of the impacts of the trial were published last week showing that those receiving UBI worked on average six days more a year than those receiving benefits and had better mental health and wellbeing.

Source: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/econ ... id-economy

More work and better mental health and well-being seems pretty good to me.
Interesting and i hadnt seen any of the latest report, i was merely going on the early reports saying it had failed, I could be wrong but i thought they pulled the trial early as well.

After a quick google the beeb had this to say https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47169549 at the time.

Now it puts the failure down to people not actually getting a job out of it which for me would seem to be a strange outcome to aspire to through this. Improved mental health is clearly a good thing but by how much did it improve things was it marginal or make a big uptick. It is likely to be too early and too small a sample size to be conclusive. Didnt help that the Fins also changed the regular benefits system during the trial either (from Biffer's link)

Where Massie is on point for me is that it will likely be done in addition to existing welfare payments as opposed to a replacement which then makes it unaffordable in my opinion, happy to be proven otherwise. I get the security of payment can alleviate stress which although im lucky enough to have never needed the safety net, you do read about the way people seem to get mucked about by DWP not getting the money they need through, which would certainly affect your mental wellbeing, not to mention everything else that goes with it.
I agree completely it's far from a conclusive study.

I think Massie could be wrong - UBI could be built on top of UC with is a single payment with deductions. You could have a sliding scale depending on your circumstances and to try and make it more affordable.

The mental health is the angle I'm most interested in because it's such a huge resource and talent drain. If we could improve Scotland's mental health the cost savings would be in the hundreds of millions if not billions. And if UBI doesn't disincentivise work and maybe encourages or helps it's a plus for me. I don't believe anyone wants to live on £800 a week. That would be pretty tough and unpleasant mostly.

It has to be looked at in any case.
£800/month, obviously!

UBI could have a significant part to play as our economy and society changes. This is a not exhaustive list off the to of my head.

- encourages entrepreneurs by giving them the freedom to take risks. More people able to start new businesses without risking their home and wellbeing, or taking a wage until the company is profitable
- encourages art and culture. Those working in arts and culture, particularly on a community basis, are often on a knife edge. Enabling more activities here improves life for everyone
- enables the piece work society and increased flexibility for sporadic, seasonal and part time work
- provides a safety net against the impact of automation and AI in industry and manufacturing
- reduces the cost of administering the welfare system (no assessments, no signing on, no sanctions, far less overhead)
- reduced the costs of bad mental health to society

There are many others I'm sure, some of which will be intricate economic theory reasons. But one of the keys here is that it's a policy of the new economics, so measuring it purely in terms of old measures doesn't really give an overall measure of the success or failure of it.
I've been a advocate of UBI for years. Because eventually the economy needs new solutions. But you are picking out some way optimistic outcomes from that trial. As stated the Finland trial showed UBI doesn't improve employment, one of the key factors needed to fund it. That can go further, if we follow to laying out of unemployment benefits over the 20th century, it would also suggest UBI could proliferate an attitude of being unemployable within families over a generation as it becomes the norm to not be employed. Looking at the Welsh minor situation also suggest this trend. Henck the

Likewise there is also the issue of what we always see in societal experiments, the outcomes when observed are always superior to the reality. Remember that experiment when they took it to india, paid people to cover their costs and saw more productivity? But it doesn't get replicate din the real world unless you are in a creative job and there isn't indication creative output always sees economic rewards.

Likewise when Germany looked at it, some negatives included the loss of tax in black market activities and the fact you would have to stop immigration. This would impact costs elsewhere that no pro-UBI report or advocate admits to. Likewise the claims it cuts costs elsewhere can't be measured in a study where everyone receiving UBI is known, in a whole population you still need disability benefits and grants, housing benefits and others. Those don't disappear as as savings as the whole population still needs to be monitored. Likewise tax evasion problems. UBI claims ignore these issues frequently. The ultimate problem still remains how it can be paid for. The Fins cancelled their study the instant it became obvious UBI won't pay for itself as often claimed.
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

inactionman wrote:
HKCJ wrote:
inactionman wrote:
HKCJ wrote:Scottish students come out of Uni £36k up on their English counterparts.. that’s something for them to smile about
Degrees in England are typically 3 years, 4 would tend to be undergrad masters.

Which makes for a trivial debt of 27k assuming 9k p.a. fees.
Yes but Scottish degree are typically 4 so they are effectively saving 36k compared to English students studying in Scotland.
Ah. Do English students pay fees in Scotland? I had it in my head they didn't. English universities can set their own fees up to £9k at last count (although what self-respecting uni is going to charge less than that and paint themselves as bargain basement?) so this would imply Scottish Universities have done likewise.

Vaguely recall my LEA paying my uni fees so perhaps there's mechanism to charge.

And, no, I'm not googling it, that implies effort.
Yes, they do. £9k a year, same as darn saff.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by eldanielfire »

Smutley wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: As one of my pals said at the weekend it is equality of opportunity we should be striving for not equality of outcome.
Agree with that. However, Massie is a ponce and is wanking into the mirror here. That article could only have been written by someone who has never experienced prejudice.

What these white folks really object to is the black folks having a voice, any voice. That's not liberalism in my book.
Isn't Douglas Murray gay? I'm sure he's experienced prejudice.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by eldanielfire »

HKCJ wrote:Scottish students come out of Uni £36k up on their English counterparts.. that’s something for them to smile about
True but as a result their schools are less resources and far fewer of them get to go to University.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

eldanielfire wrote:
I've been a advocate of UBI for years. Because eventually the economy needs new solutions. But you are picking out some way optimistic outcomes from that trial. As stated the Finland trial showed UBI doesn't improve employment, one of the key factors needed to fund it. That can go further, if we follow to laying out of unemployment benefits over the 20th century, it would also suggest UBI could proliferate an attitude of being unemployable within families over a generation as it becomes the norm to not be employed. Looking at the Welsh minor situation also suggest this trend. Henck the

Likewise there is also the issue of what we always see in societal experiments, the outcomes when observed are always superior to the reality. Remember that experiment when they took it to india, paid people to cover their costs and saw more productivity? But it doesn't get replicate din the real world unless you are in a creative job and there isn't indication creative output always sees economic rewards.

Likewise when Germany looked at it, some negatives included the loss of tax in black market activities and the fact you would have to stop immigration. This would impact costs elsewhere that no pro-UBI report or advocate admits to. Likewise the claims it cuts costs elsewhere can't be measured in a study where everyone receiving UBI is known, in a whole population you still need disability benefits and grants, housing benefits and others. Those don't disappear as as savings as the whole population still needs to be monitored. Likewise tax evasion problems. UBI claims ignore these issues frequently. The ultimate problem still remains how it can be paid for. The Fins cancelled their study the instant it became obvious UBI won't pay for itself as often claimed.
The Finns didn't cancel their study, it ran the full two year course as it was scheduled to do then stopped. There was then a huge data gathering and study phase to look at the outcomes, which showed a very minor increase in employment, but more substantial benefits in other areas.

The report I linked to from Reform Scotland didn't include things like disability benefit in their calculations, so no double counting or anything there. I'd appreciate a link to anything on the outcome of the German study if it's available anywhere.

The thing about normalising generational unemployment is already happening, what's the difference? I'm well aware that I've picked a few highlights, there's a huge amount of information on this out there, but most of it is theoretical. You can't realistically fully replicate and social policy in an experimental setting so limited trials with caveats are the only way to approach it. I don't know what you mean by tax evasion problems, the proposal I linked to simplified tax bands and exemptions which generally leads to a system which is more straightforward to police.
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

eldanielfire wrote:
Smutley wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: As one of my pals said at the weekend it is equality of opportunity we should be striving for not equality of outcome.
Agree with that. However, Massie is a ponce and is wanking into the mirror here. That article could only have been written by someone who has never experienced prejudice.

What these white folks really object to is the black folks having a voice, any voice. That's not liberalism in my book.
Isn't Douglas Murray gay? I'm sure he's experienced prejudice.
He went to Eton.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by eldanielfire »

robmatic wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Smutley wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote: As one of my pals said at the weekend it is equality of opportunity we should be striving for not equality of outcome.
Agree with that. However, Massie is a ponce and is wanking into the mirror here. That article could only have been written by someone who has never experienced prejudice.

What these white folks really object to is the black folks having a voice, any voice. That's not liberalism in my book.
Isn't Douglas Murray gay? I'm sure he's experienced prejudice.
He went to Eton.
No one said he didn't have a good time.
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eldanielfire
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by eldanielfire »

Biffer29 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
I've been a advocate of UBI for years. Because eventually the economy needs new solutions. But you are picking out some way optimistic outcomes from that trial. As stated the Finland trial showed UBI doesn't improve employment, one of the key factors needed to fund it. That can go further, if we follow to laying out of unemployment benefits over the 20th century, it would also suggest UBI could proliferate an attitude of being unemployable within families over a generation as it becomes the norm to not be employed. Looking at the Welsh minor situation also suggest this trend. Henck the

Likewise there is also the issue of what we always see in societal experiments, the outcomes when observed are always superior to the reality. Remember that experiment when they took it to india, paid people to cover their costs and saw more productivity? But it doesn't get replicate din the real world unless you are in a creative job and there isn't indication creative output always sees economic rewards.

Likewise when Germany looked at it, some negatives included the loss of tax in black market activities and the fact you would have to stop immigration. This would impact costs elsewhere that no pro-UBI report or advocate admits to. Likewise the claims it cuts costs elsewhere can't be measured in a study where everyone receiving UBI is known, in a whole population you still need disability benefits and grants, housing benefits and others. Those don't disappear as as savings as the whole population still needs to be monitored. Likewise tax evasion problems. UBI claims ignore these issues frequently. The ultimate problem still remains how it can be paid for. The Fins cancelled their study the instant it became obvious UBI won't pay for itself as often claimed.
The Finns didn't cancel their study, it ran the full two year course as it was scheduled to do then stopped. There was then a huge data gathering and study phase to look at the outcomes, which showed a very minor increase in employment, but more substantial benefits in other areas.

The report I linked to from Reform Scotland didn't include things like disability benefit in their calculations, so no double counting or anything there. I'd appreciate a link to anything on the outcome of the German study if it's available anywhere.

The thing about normalising generational unemployment is already happening, what's the difference? I'm well aware that I've picked a few highlights, there's a huge amount of information on this out there, but most of it is theoretical. You can't realistically fully replicate and social policy in an experimental setting so limited trials with caveats are the only way to approach it. I don't know what you mean by tax evasion problems, the proposal I linked to simplified tax bands and exemptions which generally leads to a system which is more straightforward to police.
https://epetitionen.bundestag.de/petiti ... ungpdf.pdf

https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/text ... nen-203030

The conclusions drawn about UBI in English:

A commission of the German parliament discussed basic income in 2013 and concluded that it is "unrealizable" because:

-it would cause a significant decrease in the motivation to work among citizens, with unpredictable consequences for the national economy
-it would require a complete restructuring of the taxation, social insurance and pension systems, which will cost a significant amount of money
-the current system of social help in Germany is regarded as more effective because it is more personalized: the amount of help provided depends on the financial situation of the recipient; for some socially vulnerable groups, the basic income could be insufficient
-it would cause a vast increase in immigration
-it would cause a rise in the shadow economy
-the corresponding rise of taxes would cause more inequality: higher taxes would cause higher prices of everyday products, harming the finances of poor people
-no viable way to finance basic income in Germany was found
Biffer29
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Biffer29 »

eldanielfire wrote:
Biffer29 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
I've been a advocate of UBI for years. Because eventually the economy needs new solutions. But you are picking out some way optimistic outcomes from that trial. As stated the Finland trial showed UBI doesn't improve employment, one of the key factors needed to fund it. That can go further, if we follow to laying out of unemployment benefits over the 20th century, it would also suggest UBI could proliferate an attitude of being unemployable within families over a generation as it becomes the norm to not be employed. Looking at the Welsh minor situation also suggest this trend. Henck the

Likewise there is also the issue of what we always see in societal experiments, the outcomes when observed are always superior to the reality. Remember that experiment when they took it to india, paid people to cover their costs and saw more productivity? But it doesn't get replicate din the real world unless you are in a creative job and there isn't indication creative output always sees economic rewards.

Likewise when Germany looked at it, some negatives included the loss of tax in black market activities and the fact you would have to stop immigration. This would impact costs elsewhere that no pro-UBI report or advocate admits to. Likewise the claims it cuts costs elsewhere can't be measured in a study where everyone receiving UBI is known, in a whole population you still need disability benefits and grants, housing benefits and others. Those don't disappear as as savings as the whole population still needs to be monitored. Likewise tax evasion problems. UBI claims ignore these issues frequently. The ultimate problem still remains how it can be paid for. The Fins cancelled their study the instant it became obvious UBI won't pay for itself as often claimed.
The Finns didn't cancel their study, it ran the full two year course as it was scheduled to do then stopped. There was then a huge data gathering and study phase to look at the outcomes, which showed a very minor increase in employment, but more substantial benefits in other areas.

The report I linked to from Reform Scotland didn't include things like disability benefit in their calculations, so no double counting or anything there. I'd appreciate a link to anything on the outcome of the German study if it's available anywhere.

The thing about normalising generational unemployment is already happening, what's the difference? I'm well aware that I've picked a few highlights, there's a huge amount of information on this out there, but most of it is theoretical. You can't realistically fully replicate and social policy in an experimental setting so limited trials with caveats are the only way to approach it. I don't know what you mean by tax evasion problems, the proposal I linked to simplified tax bands and exemptions which generally leads to a system which is more straightforward to police.
https://epetitionen.bundestag.de/petiti ... ungpdf.pdf

https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/text ... nen-203030

The conclusions drawn about UBI in English:

A commission of the German parliament discussed basic income in 2013 and concluded that it is "unrealizable" because:

-it would cause a significant decrease in the motivation to work among citizens, with unpredictable consequences for the national economy
-it would require a complete restructuring of the taxation, social insurance and pension systems, which will cost a significant amount of money
-the current system of social help in Germany is regarded as more effective because it is more personalized: the amount of help provided depends on the financial situation of the recipient; for some socially vulnerable groups, the basic income could be insufficient
-it would cause a vast increase in immigration
-it would cause a rise in the shadow economy
-the corresponding rise of taxes would cause more inequality: higher taxes would cause higher prices of everyday products, harming the finances of poor people
-no viable way to finance basic income in Germany was found
Ta, I'll get a look at that in a bit.
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slick
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

tc27 wrote:Meanwhile a zoo wants to open:

https://twitter.com/EdinburghZoo/status ... 2528551936

Predictably its a sh*tfight in the replies between the Cybernats and the Rangers fans. :|
Like everything.

It's a shite zoo to be honest.
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slick
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

15 new cases. That’s very low. I’m beginning to think we should be moving a bit faster now
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53061072
Scotland's unemployment rate highest in UK
2 hours ago
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Unemployment rose in Scotland by 30,000 to 127,000
Scotland's unemployment rate is now the highest among all the UK nations, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said unemployment in Scotland for people over 16 was 4.6%, compared with a UK rate of 3.9%.

Unemployment rose by rose by 30,000 to 127,000 between February and April as lockdown hit the labour market.

Ministers said the figures were a clear indication of the challenge facing Scotland as a result of the pandemic.

Scotland's unemployment rate has gone up from 3.5% in the previous quarter.

The latest figures show England's rate now stands at 3.9%, Wales is at 3% and Northern Ireland is at 2.3%.

The figures only capture the first five weeks of lockdown.

Unemployment rates across UK
Source: ONS
Business, Fair Work and Skills Minister Jamie Hepburn said: "These are the first labour market statistics to include a full month of lockdown measures, and show clearly the scale of the challenge facing Scotland as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

"I know that many people will be feeling a deep sense of anxiety about their livelihoods.

"Keeping people in work while supporting those who have lost their jobs will continue to be at the heart of our thinking as we carefully reopen the economy."

Mr Hepburn also urged the UK government to ensure its support schemes reflected what was needed in Scotland.

Support packages
The UK government's Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said the impact of coronavirus was clearly seen in the latest figures and "we can expect that to continue for some time".

He added: "The UK government is providing comprehensive coronavirus support packages to help people get through this unprecedented pandemic.

"These have saved nearly 800,000 jobs across Scotland, as well as helping people and businesses through VAT deferral, company loans and Universal Credit.

"This is in addition to the £3.8bn package already given to Holyrood to help tackle the crisis."

There's no obvious reason why Scottish unemployment should have risen faster than other parts of the UK, the rate up by 1.1 percentage points to 4.6% of working age adults.

It could have to do with exposure to the oil and gas downturn, or a bigger dependence on tourism jobs.

That gap doesn't make it a trend. More notable is how closely Scottish employment and unemployment figures have tracked UK averages in recent months and years.

As unemployment is expected to rise everywhere, to more than double that 4.6% rate, don't be surprised if the Scotland/UK difference is erased or reversed in the coming months.

The one firm conclusion that can be drawn from today's figures is that the furlough scheme has worked well in avoiding a sharp surge in unemployment.

That's at very high cost to the government, and it is probably postponing a reckoning with redundancies as it's withdrawn - under current plans - and ended by the start of November.

Dr Stuart McIntyre, head of research at the Fraser of Allander Institute, said people should be "cautious" about drawing conclusions about the comparison between the Scottish and UK unemployment rate.

"While this is higher than the UK unemployment rate which sits at 3.9%, these numbers are estimates from a survey, and statisticians calculate a range of values around the headline estimate to reflect the associated uncertainty," he said.

"In this case, the range for the unemployment rate in Scotland and the UK overlap - so we must be cautious about concluding that there are big differences between these."

Dr McIntyre said more than three quarters of a million people in Scotland were being supported by the various UK government furlough schemes.

"We are already seeing an increase in the number of planned redundancies being announced across Scotland, an increase in those receiving support through Universal Credit, and across the UK we have seen a fall in job vacancies and hours worked," he added.

"In the months to come, we expect to see much more substantial increases in unemployment. And those who become unemployed through this period will experience a very challenging economy in which to find new work.

"Both the UK and Scottish governments will need to be prepared with support measures for those made unemployed as the furlough schemes unwind, both to support them financially and to help them to access skills and training support."

Protecting jobs 'top priority'
Liz Cameron, chief executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said that the unemployment figures were concerning, but they "only hint at the scale of the challenge that lies ahead".

She added: "Protecting jobs must be a top priority.

"We continue to call on the chancellor to provide a flexible approach to the furlough scheme in Scotland.

"This includes extending it further for the hardest hit sectors such as hospitality and tourism.

"These sectors are where there is greatest risk of a jobs crisis, which will disproportionately affect young people and the low paid."
This isnt close to the real numbers with so many on furlough but it very worrying. With O&G and tourism such big sectors for us the fallout is going to be very painful, the government (Westminister or Holyrood) cant afford to keep the schemes going.
tc27
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

Looks like Sturgeon is going to pick a fight by insisting on Furlough payments continuing in Scotland past the cut off date.

We are moving back to normal politics :roll:
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slick
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

tc27 wrote:Looks like Sturgeon is going to pick a fight by insisting on Furlough payments continuing in Scotland past the cut off date.

We are moving back to normal politics :roll:
Where did you pick that up from? That will have huge ramifications across the UK
tc27
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by tc27 »

https://twitter.com/stvewan/status/1272867583906197505
On furlough scheme, Nicola Sturgeon says there has been no indication from UK govt so far it will be willing to extend support, even on sector by sector basis, but remains hopeful discussions will have a positive outcome.
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slick
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by slick »

tc27 wrote:https://twitter.com/stvewan/status/1272867583906197505
On furlough scheme, Nicola Sturgeon says there has been no indication from UK govt so far it will be willing to extend support, even on sector by sector basis, but remains hopeful discussions will have a positive outcome.
Hang on, she’s talking about the whole UK, not just Scotland
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

slick wrote:
tc27 wrote:https://twitter.com/stvewan/status/1272867583906197505
On furlough scheme, Nicola Sturgeon says there has been no indication from UK govt so far it will be willing to extend support, even on sector by sector basis, but remains hopeful discussions will have a positive outcome.
Hang on, she’s talking about the whole UK, not just Scotland
I just view that she hasn’t got the first idea on how to create jobs and fire the economy, she only knows how to spend it.
robmatic
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by robmatic »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
slick wrote:
tc27 wrote:https://twitter.com/stvewan/status/1272867583906197505
On furlough scheme, Nicola Sturgeon says there has been no indication from UK govt so far it will be willing to extend support, even on sector by sector basis, but remains hopeful discussions will have a positive outcome.
Hang on, she’s talking about the whole UK, not just Scotland
I just view that she hasn’t got the first idea on how to create jobs and fire the economy, she only knows how to spend it.
Given that we have the 'fudge business' party in power at Westminster, she's not at a massive disadvantage here.
Lorthern Nights

Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Lorthern Nights »

robmatic wrote:
Lorthern Nights wrote:
slick wrote:
tc27 wrote:https://twitter.com/stvewan/status/1272867583906197505
On furlough scheme, Nicola Sturgeon says there has been no indication from UK govt so far it will be willing to extend support, even on sector by sector basis, but remains hopeful discussions will have a positive outcome.
Hang on, she’s talking about the whole UK, not just Scotland
I just view that she hasn’t got the first idea on how to create jobs and fire the economy, she only knows how to spend it.
Given that we have the 'fudge business' party in power at Westminster, she's not at a massive disadvantage here.
Oh they were woeful no doubt but that doesn’t excuse the SNP’s ineptitude in this area
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OptimisticJock
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by OptimisticJock »

Is anyone watching that "War Next Door" currently on BBC Scotland? Worth watching?
Caley_Red
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by Caley_Red »

I like haggis wrote: Alternatively university students and graduates are young, in unpayable debts, not much opportunity for housebuying, in a jobs market where a degree is no longer worth good jobs (any jobs with Corona), and their friends are going through the same so discuss these things. They also have a different view of what liberal is to the spectator and Douglas Murray.

University workers and teachers are primarily left wing because they're in similar positions. University work is often precarious living contract to contract. My dad worked universities as a researcher and the pressure of working grant to grant makes it not as cushy a job as you'd think. My sister is a primary school teacher and her class supplies have to be bought from a public Amazon wishlist because the school can't afford them - no surprise teachers aren't Tory minded.
Degrees are still worthwhile but both the subject and the institution matter more, degree median earnings have been stagnant, i believe, for ten years or so in real terms but the underlying variance is massive e.g. many students are actually worse off for earning their degree in lifetime earnings whilst others bolster theirs by 5 to 6x.

The blame for the students you highlight above predominantly lies with them: there is more data on earnings and degree/institutions than there ever was and it's all a Google away. Although of course the current situation is outwith their control but so too was the financial crisis which decimated the graduate job market for a previous generation.

Just in case you think I'm some sort of old reactionary on the subject, I completed my undergrad and postgraduate in the last 10 years so have plenty of personal experience of what some of these people are going through: I worked in a pub for first 4 months after returning from postgrad. Many, particularly some arts and humanities graduates, can look forward to a lifetime of poor earnings when they'd have been much better off getting a trade- all of this could have been found out before embarking on said degree.

Not sure what your above point is to do with different interpretations of liberalism? These people pulling down statues and lobbying for fundamental change in our society are illiberal (by any interpretation of its core philosophies) and if their frustration is borne out of a lack of opportunities then it is incumbent on them to fix it themselves rather than tearing down the system.

House prices I completely agree on though, they're a national disgrace and it's continual government intervention limiting supply and priming demand which has worsened the situation. I note that the SNP's 'social justice' agenda doesn't extend to deflating the housing market, perhaps they have too much skin in the game?
dpedin
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

NRS report excess deaths in week 23 are 1093 against a 5 year average of 1056, almost back into normal range. 37 additional deaths although still dreadful is a lot lower than when at the peak. Hopefully this trend will continue. Good timing for Wee Nic to announce loosening of lock down a bit more tomorrow?
dpedin
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Re: Sturgeon, Covid and Scottish political stuff

Post by dpedin »

Lorthern Nights wrote:
dpedin wrote:
bimboman wrote:
On the other hand the earlier relaxation of the lock down in England seems to be having a big impact with some regions now showing an R perilously close to or above 1 and the public seem to have decided the lock down is over. Some of the big protests, illegal raves and scrums as shops open will not help, I can see some difficulties ahead for parts of England.

Where in the UK is R above one?
I know I shouldn't respond but thought this might be of interest to others anyway.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Why shouldnt you respond, perfectly reasonable question?

Only area that might be above 1:

South West 0.8-1.1

Which is not conclusively above 1, just the upper range of the estimate.
I didnt used the word 'conclusively' just said that 'some regions now showing an R perilously close to or above 1'. Many are in the 0.8 to 1.0 range which for me is close to 1. You are right that the SW are showing a range of 0.8 to 1.1.
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